Potato Stocks ISSN: 1949-1565 Released February 15, 2013, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Potato Stocks Up 14 Percent From February 2012 The 13 major potato States held 214 million cwt of potatoes in storage February 1, 2013, up 14 percent from a year ago. Potatoes in storage accounted for 52 percent of the 2012 fall storage States' production, up 3 percentage points from the previous year. Potato disappearance, at 199 million cwt, was 2 percent above February 1, 2012. Season-to-date shrink and loss, at 18.9 million cwt, was up slightly from the same date in 2012. Processors in the 9 major States have used 107 million cwt of potatoes this season, down 2 percent from the same period last year. Dehydrating usage accounted for 20.8 million cwt of the total processing, virtually unchanged from last year. Fall Potato Production and Stocks - 13 Major States: February 1, 2012-2013 [Stocks include processor holdings and most of the seed to plant following year's crop. Seed usage for all seasons in 2012 totaled 23.6 million cwt] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 2011 : Crop of 2012 :---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks :February stocks : : Stocks : Stocks :February stocks : Production : February 1, : as a percent : Production : Dec 1, : February 1, : as a percent : : 2012 : of : : 2012 : 2013 : of : : : production : : : : production ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------- 1,000 cwt ------ percent --------------- 1,000 cwt --------------- percent : California ......: 4,312 1,700 39 4,312 2,500 1,500 35 Colorado ........: 21,291 11,800 55 21,021 15,200 11,500 55 Idaho ...........: 128,760 69,500 54 143,240 101,000 80,500 56 Maine ...........: 14,310 7,400 52 15,675 12,415 9,700 62 Michigan ........: 15,180 4,700 31 15,925 9,700 5,700 36 Minnesota .......: 16,685 7,800 47 18,800 12,000 9,500 51 Montana .........: 3,795 3,400 90 3,744 3,700 3,600 96 Nebraska ........: 7,800 3,600 46 10,146 7,100 5,400 53 New York ........: 4,050 1,000 25 4,703 2,700 1,200 26 North Dakota ....: 18,865 8,900 47 25,200 16,800 12,700 50 : Oregon ..........: 23,342 12,900 55 23,045 18,400 13,400 58 Washington ......: 97,600 43,000 44 97,580 58,000 44,500 46 Wisconsin .......: 25,938 11,800 45 29,440 20,000 14,800 50 : Total ...........: 381,928 187,500 49 412,831 279,515 214,000 52 : Klamath Basin 1/ : (NA) 3,600 (X) (NA) 4,800 2,800 (X) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Includes potato stocks in California and Klamath County, Oregon. Included in the 13 States total. Fall Potato Production and Stocks - 13 Major States: 2003-2012 [For 2003-2004, data accounts for 15 major producing States. Beginning in 2005 data accounts for 13 major producing States. Blank cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : : year : Production : December 1 : January 1 : February 1 : March 1 : April 1 : May 1 : June 1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 cwt : 2003 ....: 403,566 267,900 233,590 200,230 166,280 126,110 85,000 46,020 2004 ....: 404,017 271,100 236,700 203,490 168,020 128,900 88,550 51,700 2005 ....: 378,732 253,800 220,500 189,100 155,500 115,700 75,900 41,560 2006 ....: 389,527 258,900 225,800 192,200 159,500 120,900 79,050 44,460 2007 ....: 397,753 265,500 232,300 199,300 163,400 125,500 83,960 50,420 2008 ....: 369,866 243,700 213,200 183,900 152,700 115,800 78,100 45,300 2009 ....: 383,962 265,800 234,300 203,500 169,700 128,700 89,610 55,120 2010 ....: 357,191 240,200 209,400 180,300 148,500 111,000 72,000 41,320 2011 ....: 381,928 253,000 (NA) 187,500 (NA) 115,650 (NA) 43,340 2012 ....: 412,831 279,515 (NA) 214,000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NA) Not available. Fall Potato Stocks by Type as Percent of Total Stocks - 10 Selected States: February 1, 2012 and 2013 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Potato Types :-------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Reds : Round whites : Long whites : Yellows : Russets State :-------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Feb :Dec :Feb :Feb :Dec :Feb :Feb :Dec :Feb :Feb :Dec :Feb :Feb :Dec :Feb :2012:2012:2013:2012:2012:2013:2012:2012:2013:2012:2012:2013:2012:2012:2013 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : % : Colorado .........: 1 1 1 4 6 6 - - - 8 5 5 87 88 88 Idaho ............: 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 93 93 93 Maine ............: 3 2 2 35 33 31 - - - 3 2 2 59 63 65 Michigan .........: - 1 - 84 86 86 - - - - - - 16 13 14 Minnesota ........: 8 8 5 3 4 4 - - - 1 1 1 88 87 90 New York .........: 5 4 3 90 93 94 - - 3 5 3 - - - - North Dakota .....: 16 16 15 12 11 11 4 5 4 1 1 1 67 67 69 Oregon ...........: 1 2 1 5 8 6 - 5 - 2 2 1 92 83 92 Washington .......: 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 1 1 1 87 87 87 Wisconsin ........: 2 4 1 43 25 49 - - - - 1 - 55 70 50 : 10 State average .: 3 4 3 10 11 11 2 2 2 2 1 1 83 82 83 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Represents zero. Potato Shrinkage and Loss - 13 Fall Storage States: 2009-2012 [Blank cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : To : To : To : To : To : To : To year : December 1 : January 1 : February 1 : March 1 : April 1 : May 1 : June 1 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : million cwt : 2009 ...: 14.3 16.5 18.8 21.1 24.4 26.5 28.5 2010 ...: 12.7 14.7 16.6 18.6 20.4 22.1 23.3 2011 ...: 13.7 16.4 18.8 20.8 22.9 24.5 25.9 2012 ...: 13.8 16.4 18.9 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Quantity of Potatoes Used for Processing - 9 Major States: 2010-2012 [Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Blank cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : To : To : To : To : To : To : To : crop year : December 1 : January 1 : February 1 : March 1 : April 1 : May 1 : June 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 cwt : Idaho and Oregon, Malheur : 2010 .......................: 21,040 26,840 32,700 39,240 46,180 52,830 59,440 70,050 2011 .......................: 28,060 34,800 41,800 49,460 56,680 63,800 71,510 84,780 2012 .......................: 27,260 33,870 40,750 : Maine 1/ : 2010 .......................: 1,860 2,390 3,000 3,620 4,320 4,980 5,645 7,490 2011 .......................: 1,860 2,380 3,095 3,695 4,360 4,940 5,345 6,790 2012 .......................: 1,735 2,215 2,875 : Washington and Oregon, Other : 2010 .......................: 27,670 33,570 38,815 46,700 53,660 60,145 67,655 77,940 2011 .......................: 31,750 38,165 44,475 51,630 58,515 65,320 73,040 84,105 2012 .......................: 30,590 37,030 43,120 : Other States 2/ : 2010 .......................: 11,820 14,785 17,435 20,370 23,215 25,775 28,690 35,430 2011 .......................: 14,205 16,770 19,525 21,930 24,910 27,230 29,960 36,200 2012 .......................: 14,305 16,770 19,795 : Total : 2010 .......................: 62,390 77,585 91,950 109,930 127,375 143,730 161,430 190,910 2011 .......................: 75,875 92,115 108,895 126,715 144,465 161,290 179,855 211,875 2012 .......................: 73,890 89,885 106,540 : Dehydrated 3/ : 2010 .......................: 7,960 10,795 13,645 16,485 19,415 22,740 25,855 32,700 2011 .......................: 13,375 16,845 20,875 24,410 28,070 31,533 35,310 42,585 2012 .......................: 13,350 16,765 20,845 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. Amounts exclude quantities used for potato chips. 2/ Colorado, Minnesota, Nevada, North Dakota, and Wisconsin. Monthly amounts exclude quantities used for potato chips in Wisconsin. 3/ Dehydrated products except starch and flour. Includes Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Washington, and Wisconsin. Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Potato stocks surveys are conducted in 13 major fall potato producing States, which account for nearly 88 percent of the United States all potato production. Growers, processors, and storage facilities are contacted during the months of December, February, April and June to obtain the quantity of potatoes stored as of the first of the month, as well as shrinkage and loss information. Processing data is collected in nine States (Colorado, Idaho, Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, North Dakota, Oregon, Washington, and Wisconsin). Estimating Procedures: Information obtained from the potato stocks surveys along with federal administrative data is used to establish estimates of stocks, shrinkage and loss, and processing usage. These estimates are reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Revision Policy: Stocks, processing, and shrinkage and loss estimates for the previous estimating period are subject to revision based on late and/or updated information. At the end of the marketing season, all information available, including disposition data, will be thoroughly reviewed and any necessary revisions for the entire crop year will be published in the Potatoes Annual Summary. Reliability: Survey indications are subject to sampling variability because all operations holding potato stocks are not included in the sample. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omission, duplication, imputation for missing data, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. These errors cannot be measured directly, but they are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the February 1 stocks estimate, the "Root Mean Square Error", a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the February 1 stocks estimate and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20 year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error". Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current estimate relative to the final end-of- season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's estimate are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the February 1 stocks estimate is 2.8 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 214 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 2.8 percent, or approximately 5.99 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 4.9 percent, or approximately 10.5 million cwt. Changes between the February 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 3.98 million cwt, ranging from 100,000 cwt to 14.2 million cwt. During the 20 year period, the February 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 14 times and above 6 times. Fall Potato Preliminary and Final February 1 Stocks - United States: 2002-2012 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : Percent of : Final year : stocks : final : stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 cwt percent 1,000 cwt : 2002 .....: 197,470 99.2 199,020 2003 .....: 200,530 100.1 200,230 2004 .....: 204,190 100.3 203,490 2005 .....: 187,600 99.2 189,100 2006 .....: 187,800 97.7 192,200 2007 .....: 206,200 103.5 199,300 2008 .....: 183,200 99.6 183,900 2009 .....: 203,400 100.0 203,500 2010 .....: 175,700 97.4 180,300 2011 .....: 186,900 99.7 187,500 2012 .....: 214,000 (NA) (NA) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NA) Not available. Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. To set-up this free subscription, visit http://www.nass.usda.gov and in the "Follow NASS" box under "Receive reports by Email," click on "National" or "State" to select the reports you would like to receive. For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural Statistics Hotline at (800) 727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@nass.usda.gov. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs and activities on the basis of race, color, national origin, age, disability, and where applicable, sex, marital status, familial status, parental status, religion, sexual orientation, political beliefs, genetic information, reprisal, or because all or a part of an individual's income is derived from any public assistance program. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (Braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact USDA's TARGET Center at (202) 720-2600 (voice and TDD). To file a complaint of discrimination, write to USDA, Assistant Secretary for Civil Rights, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Civil Rights, 1400 Independence Avenue, S.W., Stop 9410, Washington, DC 20250-9410, or call toll-free at (866) 632-9992 (English) or (800) 877-8339 (TDD) or (866) 377- 8642 (English Federal-relay) or (800) 845-6136 (Spanish Federal-relay). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer.