OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS -- SUMMARY November 30, 1998 November 1998, AES-20 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. The complete text of the report will be available 3-4 weeks following this summary release. EXPECTED FISCAL 1999 U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS LOWERED TO $50.5 BILLION --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fiscal 1999 U.S. agricultural exports are reduced to $50.5 billion, $1.5 billion under the August forecast, largely reflecting lower commodity prices and reduced poultry and horticulture export volumes. Export volume estimates, however, are increased to 149.8 million tons, as grain shipments are expected to exceed 1998. The corn export volume is increased to 42.5 million tons, but value remains unchanged at $4.2 billion as price expectations have declined. Sales of horticultural products and poultry meats have slowed considerably since August, and projections are lowered. Horticultural exports are forecast at $10.1 billion, $500 million less than in August, and are now also down 2 percent from 1998. Appreciation of the U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar is partly responsible for this slowdown. Poultry meat exports to Russia virtually ceased in the wake of Russia's financial crisis. Expected 1999 U.S. poultry meat exports are reduced to $1.8 billion, 25 percent less than the August forecast. Expected U.S. agricultural imports in fiscal 1999 also have been lowered since August, to $38.5 billion, but are still expected to exceed 1998 by 4 percent. Growth of fruit, beverage, and tobacco imports will be slower than earlier anticipated. The agricultural export surplus is expected to drop to $12 billion, its lowest since fiscal 1987. Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1994-1999 -- Year ending September 30 -- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Item 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Projected Aug. Nov. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ --Billion dollars-- Exports 43.9 54.6 59.8 57.3 53.6 52.0 50.5 Imports 26.6 29.9 32.6 35.8 37.0 39.5 38.5 Balance 17.3 24.7 27.2 21.5 16.6 12.5 12.0 --Million metric tons -- Ex. volume 127.5 169.7 158.4 147.3 142.0 148.7 149.8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the Nov. 10, 1998, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by commodity, 1996-1999 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal 1999 Commodity 1996 1997 1998 Projected Aug. Nov. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ --Billion dollars-- Grains and feeds 1/ 21.553 16.466 14.109 14.0 13.9 Wheat & flour 7.032 4.263 3.887 4.2 4.2 Rice 1.004 0.962 1.134 1.0 1.0 Coarse grains 2/ 9.338 6.921 4.990 4.7 4.7 Corn 8.369 6.107 4.261 4.2 4.2 Feeds and fodders 2.627 2.673 2.411 2.3 2.3 Oilseeds and products 9.670 11.437 11.090 9.5 9.3 Soybeans 6.312 6.950 6.117 5.1 5.1 Soybean meal 1.305 1.746 1.944 1.5 1.4 Soybean oil 0.272 0.516 0.881 0.8 0.8 Livestock products 8.067 7.706 7.626 7.9 8.1 Beef, pork & variety meats 4.343 3.977 4.045 4.3 4.5 Hides & skins, incl. furs 1.677 1.693 1.358 1.4 1.5 Poultry & products 2.730 2.872 2.712 2.8 2.3 Poultry meat 2.353 2.516 2.347 2.4 1.8 Dairy products 0.719 0.842 0.897 0.9 0.9 Tobacco, unmanufactured 1.393 1.612 1.448 1.4 1.4 Cotton & linters 3.028 2.737 2.537 1.7 1.6 Seeds 0.727 0.924 0.838 0.9 0.9 Horticultural products 10.019 10.598 10.318 10.6 10.1 Fruits & preparations 3.311 3.412 3.202 3.3 3.0 Vegetables & preparations 2.423 2.655 2.805 2.9 2.8 Tree nuts & preparations 1.374 1.283 1.215 1.3 1.3 Sugar, tropical, and other 1.889 2.067 2.051 2.2 2.0 Total 3/ 59.795 57.261 53.629 52.0 50.5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes pulses and corn products. 2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 3/ Totals might not add due to rounding. 4/ Includes wheat, rice, coarse grains, soybeans, and cotton. Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports: Volume by commodity, 1996-99 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal 1999 Commodity 1996 1997 1998 Projected Aug. Nov. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ --Million metric tons-- Wheat 33.716 24.531 25.800 31.5 31.5 Wheat flour 0.470 0.504 0.459 0.5 0.5 Rice 2.831 2.564 3.315 2.7 3.0 Coarse grains 1/ 58.656 53.027 43.960 45.9 48.2 Corn 52.681 46.579 37.697 40.5 42.5 Feeds & fodders 12.065 12.259 11.688 11.9 11.9 Oilseeds and products 30.759 33.942 36.018 35.6 35.1 Soybeans 22.372 24.027 23.287 23.3 23.1 Soybean meal 5.445 6.345 8.464 8.2 7.8 Soybean oil 0.450 0.924 1.396 1.3 1.2 Beef, pork & variety meats 1.410 1.356 1.559 1.6 1.7 Poultry meat 2.330 2.553 2.663 2.8 2.3 Animal fats 1.376 1.056 1.365 1.1 1.3 Cotton & linters 1.703 1.648 1.602 1.1 1.0 Horticultural products 7.139 7.539 7.414 7.7 7.3 Other 5.917 6.338 6.174 6.3 6.0 Total agriculture 158.372 147.317 142.017 148.7 149.8 Major bulk products 2/ 119.278 105.797 97.964 104.5 106.8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 2/ Includes wheat, rice, coarse grains, soybeans, and cotton. Table 4--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by region, 1996-99 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal 1999 Region 1996 1997 1998 Forecast ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ --Billion dollars-- Asia 26.018 23.873 19.668 18.0 Japan 11.882 10.713 9.459 8.8 China 1.828 1.774 1.514 1.4 Hong Kong 1.534 1.640 1.568 1.5 Taiwan 2.927 2.588 1.971 1.6 South Korea 3.731 3.293 2.245 2.0 Southeast Asia 3.386 3.136 2.282 2.1 Indonesia 0.909 0.768 0.529 0.5 Philippines 0.909 0.898 0.744 0.6 Malaysia 0.628 0.580 0.310 0.3 Thailand 0.600 0.562 0.449 0.4 South Asia 0.730 0.728 0.623 0.6 Western Hemisphere 15.995 16.604 18.370 17.5 Canada 6.004 6.620 7.022 6.7 Mexico 5.023 5.077 5.956 5.6 Brazil 0.593 0.461 0.566 0.5 Venezuela 0.451 0.552 0.516 0.5 Other Latin America 3.925 3.893 4.310 4.2 Western Europe 9.542 9.617 8.844 8.5 European Union 9.180 8.997 8.508 8.3 Central and Eastern Europe 0.408 0.317 0.320 0.3 New Independent States 1/ 1.666 1.593 1.456 1.5 Russia 1.251 1.281 1.103 1.2 Middle East 2.593 2.562 2.285 2.1 Turkey 0.621 0.742 0.658 0.6 Saudi Arabia 0.580 0.630 0.535 0.5 Africa 3.190 2.265 2.167 2.1 North Africa 2.257 1.480 1.475 1.5 Egypt 1.532 0.928 0.939 0.9 Sub-Saharan Africa 0.933 0.785 0.692 0.6 Oceania 0.478 0.534 0.545 0.5 Total 2/ 59.795 57.261 53.629 50.5 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ New Independent States (NIS) are the former Soviet Union (FSU), including the Baltic Republics. 2/ Transshipments through Canada are distributed by country for fiscal 1996 and 1997, but included in the total only for fiscal 1998 and 1999. 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