OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS--SUMMARY February 21, 1996 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. The complete text of OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS is available 2-3 working days following release of this summary. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- FISCAL 1996 AGRICULTURAL EXPORT FORECAST RISES TO $60 BILLION The fiscal 1996 forecast for U.S. agricultural exports is revised upward $2 billion to a record $60 billion as prospects for wheat, corn, and cotton exports have further improved. Tight global supplies and strong foreign demand continue to push wheat, corn, and soybean prices upward. The major bulk commodity export volume forecast has been increased 5.8 million tons. Total export volume is forecast at 161.6 million tons. The fiscal 1996 forecast for U.S. agricultural imports is raised $500 million to $29.5 billion. Higher expected imports of tobacco and oilseed products account for the increase. The U.S. agricultural trade surplus is forecast at a record $30.5 billion in fiscal 1996, $1.5 billion above the November forecast. This forecast surpasses the previous record of $26.6 billion set in fiscal 1981. Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1991-1996 -- Year beginning October 1 -- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Forecast Item : 1991 : 1992 : 1993 : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 : : : : : : Nov. : Feb. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- Billion dollars -- Exports : 37.5 42.3 42.5 43.5 54.1 58.0 60.0 : Imports : 22.6 24.3 24.5 26.4 29.5 29.0 29.5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Trade : balance : 14.9 18.0 18.0 17.1 24.6 29.0 30.5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- Million tons -- Export : volume : 129.4 143.6 146.4 127.4 169.2 156.0 161.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the February 9, 1996, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by commodity, 1994-96 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- : October-November : Fiscal : Fiscal 1996 Commodity : 1994/95 : 1995/96 : 1995 : Forecast : : : : Nov. : Feb. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --Billion dollars-- Grains and feeds 1/ : 2.708 3.603 17.637 19.1 21.0 Wheat & flour : .808 1.179 5.201 5.9 6.7 Rice : .225 .182 1.050 1.0 1.0 Coarse grains 2/ : .973 1.510 7.411 7.9 8.7 Corn : .838 1.395 6.619 7.2 7.8 Feeds and fodders : .417 .443 2.511 2.8 3.0 : Oilseeds and products : 1.692 1.727 9.119 9.9 10.0 Soybeans : 1.040 1.122 5.274 6.1 6.3 Soybean meal : .178 .176 1.079 1.3 1.3 Soybean oil : .130 .079 .809 .5 .5 : Livestock products : 1.325 1.465 7.808 8.8 8.8 Beef, pork & variety meats : .656 .786 4.044 4.8 4.7 Hides & skins, incl. furs : .249 .269 1.719 1.9 1.9 Poultry & products : .379 .466 2.210 2.4 2.4 Dairy products : .125 .117 .812 .9 .9 Tobacco, unmanufactured : .230 .294 1.329 1.3 1.4 Cotton & linters : .362 .478 3.496 2.5 2.7 Seeds : .115 .116 .680 .7 .7 Horticultural products : 1.719 1.737 9.110 10.3 10.0 Fruits & preparations : .559 .588 3.263 3.6 3.5 Vegetables & preparations : .438 .393 2.538 2.9 2.6 Tree nuts & preparations : .306 .342 1.108 1.2 1.2 Sugar, tropical, and other : .359 .354 1.940 2.1 2.1 : Total 3/ : 9.014 10.357 54.141 58.0 60.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports: Volume by commodity, 1994-96 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- : October-November : Fiscal : Fiscal 1996 Commodity : 1994/95 : 1995/96 : 1995 : Forecast : : : : Nov. : Feb. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --Million metric tons-- Wheat : 5.688 6.065 32.094 30.5 33.5 Wheat flour : .151 .064 1.184 1.3 1.0 Rice : .854 .519 3.767 3.2 3.2 Coarse grains 2/ : 9.806 11.273 65.670 56.2 58.7 Corn : 8.455 10.397 58.645 51.0 53.0 Feeds & fodders : 2.043 2.189 13.483 13.3 13.8 Oilseeds and products : 6.645 5.974 34.050 31.2 30.9 Soybeans : 4.854 4.434 23.584 21.8 22.0 Soybean meal : .963 .862 6.094 5.5 5.3 Soybean oil : .208 .125 1.216 .9 .8 Beef, pork & variety meats : .206 .240 1.262 1.5 1.5 Poultry meat : .309 .389 1.901 2.1 2.2 Animal fats : .288 .292 1.725 2.1 2.1 Cotton & linters : .244 .268 2.068 1.6 1.7 Horticultural products : 1.321 1.242 7.001 8.0 7.5 Other : .937 .991 4.999 5.0 5.5 Total agriculture : 28.492 29.506 169.204 156.0 161.6 Major bulk products 4/ : 21.446 22.559 127.183 113.3 119.1 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes pulses and corn products. 2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 3/ Totals might not add due to rounding. 4/ Includes wheat, rice, coarse grains, soybeans, and cotton. 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