OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS--SUMMARY Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board February 24, 1997 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. The complete text of OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS (AES-13) will be available 2-3 working days following release of this summary. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- FISCAL 1997 AGRICULTURAL EXPORT FORECAST RAISED $1 BILLION TO $56.5 BILLION The fiscal 1997 forecast for U.S. agricultural exports is raised $1 billion to $56.5 billion, reflecting actual shipments to date and changed prospects since December. Stronger than expected export volume and prices of soybeans and cotton will more than offset reduced prospects of wheat and livestock exports. Forecast exports for soybeans and products and cotton are raised $800 million and $500 million, respectively, largely reflecting heavy shipments to China, the European Union, and Mexico. Forecast total export volume is reduced slightly to 145.4 million tons. U.S. agricultural imports in fiscal 1997 are expected at $34 billion, unchanged from the previous forecast. The coffee import value is higher than previously indicated, largely because of rising prices due to low stocks in consuming countries and uncertain South American supplies. Higher beef imports are offset by lower expected live animal imports. The fiscal 1997 agricultural trade surplus forecast is raised $1 billion to $22.5 billion. Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1992-1997 -- Year ending September 30 -- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Fiscal : Fiscal : Fiscal : Fiscal : Fiscal : Forecast Item : 1992 : 1993 : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 : Fiscal 1997 : : : : : : Dec. : Feb. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- Billion dollars -- : Exports : 42.5 42.7 43.9 54.6 59.8 55.5 56.5 : Imports : 24.3 24.5 26.4 29.6 32.4 34.0 34.0 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Trade : balance : 18.2 18.2 17.5 25.0 27.4 21.5 22.5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- Million metric tons -- Export : volume : 143.6 146.4 127.5 169.7 158.4 146.7 145.4 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the February 12, 1997, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by commodity, 1995-97 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : October-December : Fiscal : Fiscal 1997 Commodity : 1995 : 1996 : 1996 : Forecast : : : : Dec. : Feb. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : --Billion dollars-- Grains and feeds 1/ : 5.409 4.854 21.553 16.4 16.2 Wheat & flour : 1.734 1.118 7.032 3.9 3.6 Rice : .276 .304 1.004 .9 1.0 Coarse grains 2/ : 2.318 2.339 9.338 7.3 7.3 Corn : 2.058 2.093 8.369 6.5 6.4 Feeds and fodders : .657 .670 2.627 2.7 2.7 Oilseeds and products : 2.672 3.907 9.670 9.8 10.7 Soybeans : 1.784 2.797 6.312 6.4 7.1 Soybean meal : .271 .463 1.305 1.3 1.5 Soybean oil : .105 .160 .272 .4 .5 Livestock products : 2.127 1.890 8.067 8.7 8.5 Beef, pork & variety meats : 1.115 .927 4.343 4.9 4.7 Hides & skins, incl. furs : .399 .397 1.677 1.7 1.6 Poultry & products : .714 .815 2.730 3.0 3.0 Dairy products : .183 .174 .719 .7 .7 Tobacco, unmanufactured : .434 .432 1.393 1.4 1.4 Cotton & linters : .972 .684 3.028 2.1 2.6 Seeds : .202 .282 .727 .8 .8 Horticultural products : 2.614 2.781 10.029 10.5 10.5 Fruits & preparations : .835 .813 3.319 3.5 3.5 Vegetables & preparations : .598 .634 2.423 2.6 2.6 Tree nuts & preparations : .463 .522 1.374 1.3 1.3 Sugar, tropical, and other : .474 .535 1.888 2.0 2.1 Total 3/ : 15.801 16.354 59.804 55.5 56.5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports: Volume by commodity, 1995-97 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : October-December : Fiscal : Fiscal 1997 Commodity : 1995 : 1996 : 1996 : Forecast : : : : Dec. : Feb. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : --Million metric tons-- Wheat : 8.754 5.989 33.716 21.5 20.5 Wheat flour : .132 .145 .470 .5 .6 Rice : .773 .786 2.831 2.3 2.4 Coarse grains 2/ : 16.872 16.290 58.656 56.0 55.0 Corn : 15.074 14.571 52.681 49.5 48.5 Feeds & fodders : 3.231 2.999 12.065 12.8 12.4 Oilseeds and products : 9.144 12.706 30.759 32.7 33.6 Soybeans : 6.873 10.067 22.372 23.7 24.4 Soybean meal : 1.295 1.710 5.445 5.7 6.0 Soybean oil : .168 .289 .450 .8 .8 Beef, pork & variety meats : .349 .320 1.410 1.5 1.5 Poultry meat : .606 .650 2.330 2.6 2.7 Animal fats : .405 .261 1.376 1.6 1.4 Cotton & linters : .543 .396 1.703 1.4 1.5 Horticultural products : 1.838 1.829 7.139 7.5 7.5 Other : 1.519 1.744 5.917 6.3 6.3 Total agriculture : 44.166 44.078 158.372 146.7 145.4 Major bulk prod. 4/ : 32.017 31.773 119.278 104.9 103.8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes pulses and corn products. 2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 3/ Totals might not add due to rounding. 4/ Includes wheat, rice, coarse grains, soybeans, and cotton.