OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS December 02, 1997 December 1997, AES-16 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS is published four times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. This release contains only the text of OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS -- tables and graphics are not included. Subscriptions to the published version of this report are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock #AES-16, $24/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. OUTLOOK for U.S. Agricultural Exports ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- FISCAL 1998 AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS FORECAST UNCHANGED AT $58.5 BILLION Fiscal 1998 U.S. agricultural exports are projected at $58.5 billion, up $1.2 billion from the $57.3 billion shipped in fiscal year 1997. In the aggregate, the export forecast remains unchanged from August as gains in soybeans offset reductions in meats, wheat, and corn. This forecast includes an anticipated slowdown in U.S. exports to Southeast Asian countries and South Korea. Exports to these countries, currently forecast at $6.2 billion, reflect an estimated $500 million downward adjustment due to the financial crisis. Fiscal 1998 imports remain at $38 billion, $2.2 billion above 1997. The anticipated export surplus of $20.5 billion is unchanged from August projections, but $1.0 billion less than the fiscal 1997 surplus. Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1994-1998 -- Year ending September 30 -- Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal 1998 Item 1994 1995 1996 1997 Forecast Aug. Dec. -- Billion dollars -- Exports 43.9 54.6 59.8 57.3 58.5 58.5 Imports 26.6 29.9 32.6 35.8 38.0 38.0 Trade balance 17.3 24.7 27.2 21.5 20.5 20.5 -- Million metric tons -- Export volumne 127.5 169.7 158.4 147.3 161.4 157.9 This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the November 10, 1997, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by commodity, 1995-1998 Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal 1998 Commodity 1995 1996 1997 Forecast Aug Dec --Billion dollars-- Grains and feeds 1/ 17.637 21.553 16.466 17.3 16.8 Wheat & flour 5.201 7.032 4.263 4.6 4.5 Rice 1.050 1.004 0.962 1.0 1.0 Coarse grains 2/ 7.411 9.338 6.921 7.5 6.9 Corn 6.619 8.369 6.107 6.8 6.1 Feeds and fodders 2.511 2.627 2.673 2.5 2.6 Oilseeds and products 9.119 9.670 11.437 9.9 11.0 Soybeans 5.274 6.312 6.950 6.1 6.7 Soybean meal 1.079 1.305 1.746 1.4 1.4 Soybean oil 0.809 0.272 0.516 0.6 0.7 Livestock products 7.831 8.067 7.726 8.7 8.2 Beef, pork & variety meats 4.038 4.343 3.977 4.8 4.3 Hides & skins, incl. furs 1.738 1.677 1.693 1.8 1.8 Poultry & products 2.340 2.898 3.094 3.0 3.2 Dairy products 0.789 0.719 0.842 0.8 0.8 Tobacco, unmanufactured 1.329 1.393 1.612 1.6 1.6 Cotton & linters 3.496 3.028 2.737 2.8 2.7 Seeds 0.680 0.727 0.924 0.9 0.9 Horticultural products 9.649 10.019 10.598 11.2 11.2 Fruits & preparations 3.255 3.311 3.412 3.5 3.5 Vegetables & preparations 2.559 2.423 2.655 2.7 2.8 Tree nuts & preparations 1.108 1.374 1.283 1.4 1.4 Sugar, tropical, and other 1.759 1.721 1.825 2.3 2.2 Total 3/ 54.629 59.795 57.261 58.5 58.5 1/ Includes pulses and corn products. 2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats,and rye. 3/ Totals might not add due to rounding. Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports: Volume by commodity, 1995-98 Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal 1998 Commodity 1995 1996 1997 Forecast Aug Dec --Million metric tons-- Wheat 32.094 33.716 24.531 30.0 28.5 Wheat flour 1.184 0.470 0.504 0.5 0.5 Rice 3.767 2.831 2.564 2.7 2.7 Coarse grains 1/ 65.670 58.656 53.027 58.2 55.1 Corn 58.645 52.681 46.579 52.0 48.5 Feeds & fodders 13.483 12.065 12.259 12.4 12.7 Oilseeds and products 34.050 30.759 33.942 36.2 37.1 Soybeans 23.584 22.372 24.027 26.0 26.7 Soybean meal 6.094 5.445 6.345 6.6 6.7 Soybean oil 1.216 0.450 0.924 1.0 1.1 Beef, pork, & variety meats 1.256 1.410 1.356 1.6 1.5 Poultry meat 1.901 2.330 2.522 2.6 2.6 Animal fats 1.725 1.376 1.028 0.9 0.9 Cotton & linters 2.068 1.703 1.648 1.6 1.6 Horticultural products 7.041 7.139 7.539 7.7 7.7 Other 5.442 5.916 0.000 7.0 7.0 Total agriculture 169.681 158.372 147.319 161.4 157.9 Major bulk products 2/ 127.183 119.278 105.797 118.5 114.6 1/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 2/ Includes wheat, rice, coarse grains, soybeans, and cotton. Printed copies of the Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Exports will be available in about a week. For more information contact Carolyn Whitton 202-694-5287. The text of the report will also be available electronically, for details call 202-694-5050. END_OF_FILE