OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE-Summary February 22, 1999 February 1999, ERS-AES-21 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS is published four times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. This release contains only the text of the report -- tables and graphics are not included. Subscriptions to the published version of this report are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock # ERS-AES, $30/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- FISCAL 1999 AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS FORECAST TO FALL BELOW $50 BILLION U.S. agricultural exports in fiscal 1999 are forecast at $49 billion, down $1.5 billion from the November estimate and $4.6 billion below fiscal 1998. Weak world demand and large world supplies largely account for the decline. Excluding Mexico, year-to-year declines are forecast in all major markets. Soybean and soybean product exports are forecast down almost $3.5 billion from last year, as both volume and prices have fallen. The severe decline in U.S. production and weak world prices have sharply reduced U.S. cotton exports. The decline in exports of poultry meat from 1998 largely reflects reduced Russian imports and lower prices. Other major export commodities are forecast to record minor changes in value from 1998 as declining prices are offset by increasing volume. For example, the volume of corn exports is forecast up 17 percent, to 44 million tons, while the value is virtually unchanged at $4.3 billion. U.S. agricultural imports are forecast to be $38 billion in fiscal 1999, up $1 billion from 1998. Most of the increase is accounted for by horticultural products. The agricultural trade surplus, forecast at $11 billion, is the lowest since 1987. As of this issue, this publication is renamed Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade from Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Exports, reflecting the increased emphasis on imports. Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1994-1999 --Year ending September 30 -- ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Item 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Projected Nov. Feb. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- --Billion dollars-- Exports 43.9 54.6 59.8 57.3 53.6 50.5 49.0 Imports 26.6 29.9 32.6 35.8 37.0 38.5 38.0 Balance 17.3 24.7 27.2 21.5 16.6 12.0 11.0 --Million metric tons -- Ex. volume 127.5 169.7 158.4 147.3 142.0 149.8 146.7 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the Feb. 10, 1999, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by commodity, 1997-1999 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Oct.-Dec. Fiscal Fiscal 1999 Commodity 1997 1998 1998 Projected Nov. Feb. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- --Billion dollars-- Grains and feeds 1/ 3.851 3.910 14.109 13.9 13.8 Wheat & flour 1.096 1.045 3.887 4.2 3.9 Rice 0.276 0.353 1.134 1.0 1.1 Coarse grains 2/ 1.399 1.402 4.990 4.7 4.8 Corn 1.159 1.279 4.261 4.2 4.3 Feeds and fodders 0.650 0.621 2.411 2.3 2.3 Oilseeds and products 4.683 3.151 11.090 9.3 8.6 Soybeans 3.226 1.945 6.117 5.1 4.7 Soybean meal 0.637 0.328 1.944 1.4 1.2 Soybean oil 0.231 0.258 0.881 0.8 0.7 Livestock products 2.095 1.901 7.626 8.1 7.9 Beef, pork & variety meats 1.080 0.974 4.045 4.5 4.2 Hides & skins, incl. furs 0.354 0.255 1.358 1.5 1.4 Poultry & products 0.727 0.549 2.712 2.3 2.3 Poultry meat 0.632 0.461 2.347 1.8 1.9 Dairy products 0.236 0.224 0.897 0.9 0.9 Tobacco, unmanufactured 0.373 0.384 1.448 1.4 1.4 Cotton & linters 0.656 0.681 2.537 1.6 1.4 Seeds 0.253 0.254 0.838 0.9 0 .9 Horticultural products 2.820 2.763 10.318 10.1 10.0 Fruits & preparations 0.842 0.823 3.202 3.0 2.9 Vegetables & preparations 0.714 0.740 2.805 2.8 2.8 Tree nuts & preparations 0.458 0.414 1.215 1.3 1.3 Sugar, tropical, and other 0.537 0.516 2.054 2.0 1.9 Total 3/ 16.231 14.333 53.629 50.5 49.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes pulses and corn products. 2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 3/ Totals might not add due to rounding. Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports: Volume by commodity, 1997-99 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Oct.-Dec. Fiscal Fiscal 1999 Commodity 1997 1998 1998 Projected Nov. Feb. --------------------------------------------------------------------- --Million metric tons-- Wheat 6.729 7.827 25.800 31.5 28.5 Wheat flour 0.141 0.246 0.459 0.5 0.6 Rice 0.734 1.147 3.315 3.0 3.2 Coarse grains 1/ 11.597 14.252 43.960 48.2 49.4 Corn 9.596 13.015 37.697 42.5 44.0 Feeds & fodders 3.058 3.129 11.688 11.9 11.9 Oilseeds and products 15.564 12.362 36.018 35.1 33.8 Soybeans 12.063 9.052 23.287 23.1 22.3 Soybean meal 2.359 1.924 8.464 7.8 7.2 Soybean oil 0.381 0.413 1.396 1.2 1.2 Beef, pork & variety meats 0.398 0.390 1.559 1.7 1.7 Poultry meat 0.688 0.562 2.663 2.3 2.3 Animal fats 0.232 0.187 1.365 1.3 1.3 Cotton & linters 0.401 0.462 1.602 1.0 0.9 Horticultural products 1.956 1.971 7.414 7.3 7.1 Other 1.641 1.876 6.169 6.0 6.0 Total agriculture 43.139 44.411 142.012 149.8 146.7 Major bulk products 2/ 31.524 32.740 97.964 106.8 104.3 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 2/ Includes wheat, rice, coarse grains, soybeans, and cotton. 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