OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE -- SUMMARY June 2, 1999 June 1999, ERS-AES-22 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. The complete text of the report will be available electronically about 1 week following this summary release. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- OUTLOOK for U.S. Agricultural Trade Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Economic Research Service, and Foreign Agricultural Service, U. S. Department of Agriculture AES-22 June 2, 1999 FORECAST 1999 U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS REMAIN AT $49 BILLION U.S. agricultural exports for fiscal 1999 are forecast at $49 billion, unchanged from the February estimate, but 8.5 percent below fiscal 1998. Further deterioration in prospects for export of some high-value commodities, especially hides and skins, is offset by slight improvements in expectations for grain exports. The outlook reflects a more stable world economic situation and the beginnings of a recovery in Asia. Grain export forecasts are increased over February by $600 million to $14.4 billion, while horticultural products are up $300 million to $10.3 billion. Expectations for oilseeds and product exports and livestock, poultry, and dairy exports are down $500 million each to $8.1 billion and $10.6 billion. The projected fiscal 1999 import value of $37.5 billion is $500 million below the February forecast. The downward adjustment primarily reflects smaller coffee and noncompetitive product import values. The import reduction leads to a slight improvement from February in the forecast export surplus to $11.5 billion. The expected 1999 surplus, however, remains well below 1998. Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1994-1999 -- Year ending September 30 -- ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Item 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Projected Feb. Jun. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- --Billion dollars- Exports 43.9 54.6 59.8 57.3 53.6 49.0 49.0 Imports 26.6 29.9 32.6 35.8 37.0 38.0 37.5 Balance 17.3 24.7 27.2 21.5 16.6 11.0 11.5 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the May 12, 1999, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by commodity, 1998-1999 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- October-March Fiscal Fiscal 1999 Commodity 1998 1999 1998 Projected Feb. Jun. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- --Billion dollars-- Grains and feeds 1/ 7.607 7.349 14.109 13.8 14.4 Wheat & flour 2.088 1.844 3.887 3.9 4.0 Rice 0.641 0.661 1.134 1.1 1.0 Coarse grains 2/ 2.787 2.733 4.990 4.8 5.2 Corn 2.279 2.424 4.261 4.3 4.7 Feeds and fodders 1.262 1.215 2.411 2.3 2.4 Oilseeds and products 8.005 5.354 11.090 8.6 8.1 Soybeans 4.972 3.205 6.117 4.7 4.5 Soybean meal 1.373 0.626 1.944 1.2 1.0 Soybean oil 0.546 0.420 0.881 0.7 0.6 Livestock products 3.948 3.637 7.626 7.9 7.6 Beef, pork & variety meats 2.040 1.964 4.045 4.2 4.2 Hides & skins, incl. fur 0.726 0.556 1.358 1.4 1.1 Poultry & products 1.388 1.012 2.712 2.3 2.2 Poultry meat 1.193 0.846 2.347 1.9 1.8 Dairy products 0.476 0.425 0.897 0.9 0.8 Tobacco, unmanufactured 0.756 0.791 1.448 1.4 1.4 Cotton & linters 1.516 0.883 2.537 1.4 1.4 Seeds 0.572 0.535 0.838 0.9 0.8 Horticultural products 5.202 5.180 10.318 10.0 10.3 Fruits & preparations 1.524 1.558 3.202 2.9 3.3 Vegetables & preparations 1.411 1.438 2.805 2.8 2.9 Tree nuts & preparations 0.706 0.653 1.215 1.3 1.1 Sugar, tropical, and other 1.003 0.985 2.054 1.9 2.0 Total 3/ 30.475 26.150 53.629 49.0 49.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes pulses and corn products. 2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 3/ Totals might not add due to rounding. Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports: Volume by commodity, 1998-99 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- October-March Fiscal Fiscal 1999 Commodity 1998 1999 1998 Projected Feb. Jun. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- --Million metric tons-- Wheat 12.962 13.330 25.800 28.5 28.8 Wheat flour 0.247 0.439 0.459 0.6 0.7 Rice 1.765 2.000 3.315 3.2 3.2 Coarse grains 1/ 23.215 27.516 43.960 49.4 51.8 Corn 18.955 24.408 37.697 44.0 46.5 Feeds & fodders 5.893 6.285 11.688 11.9 12.3 Oilseeds and products 26.566 21.226 36.018 33.8 31.7 Soybeans 18.644 15.110 23.287 22.3 21.2 Soybean meal 5.527 3.705 8.464 7.2 6.2 Soybean oil 0.883 0.688 1.396 1.2 1.1 Beef, pork & variety meats 0.770 0.776 1.559 1.7 1.7 Poultry meat 1.350 1.113 2.663 2.3 2.3 Animal fats 0.312 0.315 1.365 1.3 1.5 Cotton & linters 0.934 0.593 1.602 0.9 0.9 Horticultural products 3.756 3.797 7.414 7.1 7.5 Other 3.402 3.629 6.173 6.0 6.3 Total agriculture 2/ 81.172 81.019 142.016 146.7 148.7 Major bulk products 3/ 57.520 58.549 97.964 104.3 105.9 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 2/ Excludes all exports measured in hectoliters, pieces, dozens, or numbers. 3/ Includes wheat, rice, coarse grains, soybeans, and cotton. Table 4--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by region, 1998-99 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- October-March Fiscal Fiscal 1999 Region 1998 1999 1998 Forecast Feb. Jun. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- --Billion dollars-- Asia (excluding Mid East) 11.326 9.624 19.668 16.8 17.2 Japan 5.193 4.656 9.459 8.0 8.4 China 1.125 0.592 1.514 1.3 1.1 Hong Kong 0.848 0.685 1.568 1.3 1.3 Taiwan 1.267 1.029 1.971 1.6 1.6 South Korea 1.196 1.205 2.245 2.0 2.2 Southeast Asia 1.313 1.133 2.282 2.0 2.0 Indonesia 0.310 0.247 0.529 0.4 0.4 Philippines 0.352 0.339 0.744 0.6 0.7 Malaysia 0.191 0.173 0.310 0.3 0.3 Thailand 0.324 0.246 0.449 0.4 0.4 South Asia 0.378 0.318 0.623 0.6 0.6 Western Hemisphere 9.544 9.075 18.370 18.1 17.8 Canada 3.464 3.400 7.022 6.7 6.8 Mexico 3.042 3.002 5.956 6.7 6.2 Brazil 0.381 0.261 0.566 0.4 0.4 Venezuela 0.295 0.269 0.516 0.5 0.5 Other Latin America 2.362 2.144 4.310 3.8 3.9 Western Europe 5.774 4.439 8.844 7.5 7.5 European Union 5.572 4.280 8.508 7.3 7.3 Central and Eastern Europe 0.194 0.112 0.320 0.3 0.2 New Independent States 1/ 0.788 0.247 1.456 1.4 1.4 Russia 0.630 0.134 1.103 1.1 1.1 Middle East 1.304 1.056 2.285 2.1 2.1 Turkey 0.319 0.249 0.658 0.6 0.6 Saudi Arabia 0.324 0.257 0.535 0.5 0.5 Africa 1.269 1.095 2.167 1.9 2.0 North Africa 0.924 0.745 1.475 1.3 1.3 Egypt 0.570 0.516 0.939 0.9 0.9 Sub-Saharan Africa 0.345 0.350 0.692 0.6 0.7 Oceania 0.274 0.252 0.545 0.5 0.5 Transshipments 2/ 0.003 0.249 0.075 0.1 0.3 Total 2/ 16.231 14.333 53.629 49.0 49.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ New Independent States (NIS) are the former Soviet Union (FSU), including the Baltic Republics. 2/ Transshipments through Canada are included in the total only for fiscal 1998 and 1999 rather than being distributed by country. 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