OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE -- SUMMARY November 30, 1999 November 1999, ERS-AES-24 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. The complete text of the report will be available electronically about 1 week following this summary release. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- FISCAL 2000 U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS REDUCED TO $49 BILLION Lower grain prices and stronger than anticipated grain export competition in August are primarily responsible for the $1 billion reduction in forecast fiscal 2000 U.S. agricultural export value to $49 billion, unchanged from fiscal 1999. As in August, import projections remain at $38 billion, just over 1999 import levels. The expected export surplus narrows to $11 billion, lower than in 1999, and the lowest since 1987. Since August, expected export volume of wheat, corn, and soybeans has been lowered a total of 5.4 million tons due to anticipated larger foreign production and increased export competition from a number of countries. In addition, wheat still is suffering from weak global demand. With ample supplies of grains, prices have been pressured lower and expected export value also has been reduced by $500 million for wheat and $300 million for corn. Prospects for smaller U.S. soybean supplies, however, have pushed U.S. soybean prices up, and expected soybean export value is unchanged from August. The year-to-year rise in imports is attributed mainly to horticulture products--up $400 million both from the August forecast and from 1999. U.S. demand for fruits, juices, vegetables, and wine is expected to continue rising, driven partly by the dollar's high purchasing power. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1995-2000 Year ending September 30 Item 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Fiscal 2000 Aug. Nov. Billion dollars Exports 54.6 59.8 57.3 53.6 49.0 50.0 49.0 Imports 29.9 32.6 35.8 37.0 37.5 38.0 38.0 Balance 24.7 27.2 21.5 16.6 11.5 12.0 11.0 This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the Nov. 10, 1999, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by commodity, 1997-2000 Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal 2000 Commodity 1997 1998 1999 Projected Aug. Nov. Billion dollars Grains and feeds 1/ 16.534 14.142 14.402 14.4 13.4 Wheat & flour 4.323 3.919 3.839 4.2 3.7 Rice 0.962 1.134 1.015 1.0 0.9 Coarse grains 2/ 6.929 4.991 5.607 5.2 4.8 Corn 6.114 4.262 5.039 4.6 4.3 Feeds and fodders 2.673 2.409 2.241 2.3 2.3 Oilseeds and products 11.475 11.110 8.688 8.3 8.6 Soybeans 6.985 6.137 4.748 4.7 4.7 Soybean meal 1.747 1.944 1.065 1.2 1.2 Soybean oil 0.515 0.882 0.608 0.4 0.4 Livestock products 7.721 7.628 7.197 7.7 7.8 Beef, pork, & variety meats 3.981 4.042 4.102 4.4 4.5 Hides & skins, incl. furs 1.695 1.357 1.108 1.1 1.1 Poultry & products 2.869 2.711 2.056 2.2 2.1 Poultry meat 2.512 2.347 1.743 1.8 1.7 Dairy products 0.844 0.895 0.855 0.9 0.9 Tobacco, unmanufactured 1.612 1.448 1.376 1.4 1.3 Cotton & linters 2.736 2.543 1.323 1.7 1.5 Seeds 0.829 0.810 0.811 0.9 0.9 Horticultural products 10.611 10.301 10.256 10.5 10.5 Fruits & preparations 3.422 3.195 3.272 3.5 3.5 Vegetables & preparations 2.650 2.803 2.819 2.7 2.8 Tree nuts & preparations 1.282 1.218 1.077 1.3 1.1 Sugar & tropical products 2.054 2.051 2.038 2.0 2.0 Major bulk products 3/ 23.447 20.072 17.808 18.1 16.8 Total 4/ 57.286 53.642 49.004 50.0 49.0 1/ Includes pulses and processed grain products. 2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 3/ Includes wheat, rice, coarse grains, soybeans, cotton, and tobacco. 4/ Total includes a small amount of miscellaneous product not elsewhere specified. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports: Volume by commodity, 1997-2000 Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal 2000 Commodity 1997 1998 1999 Projected Aug. Nov. Million metric tons Wheat 24.905 25.999 28.818 31.0 27.9 Wheat flour 0.504 0.459 0.950 0.8 1.0 Rice 2.565 3.334 3.086 3.3 3.1 Coarse grains 1/ 53.090 43.969 57.710 54.4 53.3 Corn 46.638 37.709 51.886 48.5 47.5 Feeds & fodders 12.269 11.683 11.751 11.9 11.6 Oilseeds and products 34.053 36.091 33.592 36.7 34.6 Soybeans 24.138 23.359 22.974 24.9 23.6 Soybean meal 6.345 8.464 6.457 7.3 6.7 Soybean oil 0.922 1.397 1.076 0.9 0.8 Beef, pork, & variety meats 1.358 1.558 1.579 1.7 1.7 Poultry meat 2.549 2.663 2.377 2.4 2.5 Animal fats 1.056 1.365 1.395 1.4 1.4 Tobacco, unmanufactured 0.238 0.208 0.205 0.2 0.2 Cotton & linters 1.648 1.603 0.922 1.3 1.3 Horticultural products 2/ 7.499 7.409 7.334 7.6 7.6 Sugar & tropical products 2/ 1.180 1.267 1.298 1.3 1.3 Total major bulk products 3/ 106.584 98.472 113.714 115.1 109.4 1/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 2/ Excludes all exports measured in hectoliters, pieces, dozens, or numbers. 3/ Includes wheat, rice, coarse grains, soybeans, cotton, and tobacco. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 4--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by region, 1997-2000 Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal 2000 Region 1997 1998 1999 Forecast Nov. Billion dollars Asia (excluding Mid East) 23.873 19.706 18.435 18.3 Japan 10.713 9.469 8.931 9.0 China 1.774 1.514 1.002 1.0 Hong Kong 1.640 1.568 1.264 1.2 Taiwan 2.588 1.975 2.046 2.0 South Korea 3.293 2.258 2.479 2.6 Southeast Asia 3.136 2.288 2.204 2.1 Indonesia 0.768 0.529 0.492 0.5 Philippines 0.898 0.751 0.730 0.7 Malaysia 0.580 0.310 0.332 0.3 Thailand 0.562 0.449 0.406 0.4 South Asia 0.728 0.626 0.500 0.5 Western Hemisphere 16.604 18.385 17.458 17.6 Canada 6.620 7.022 6.957 7.0 Mexico 5.077 5.956 5.675 5.9 Brazil 0.461 0.566 0.369 0.3 Venezuela 0.552 0.516 0.457 0.4 Other Latin America 3.893 4.325 3.999 4.0 Western Europe 9.617 8.859 7.498 7.4 European Union 8.997 8.522 6.928 6.9 Central and Eastern Europe 0.317 0.320 0.190 0.2 New Independent States 1/ 1.593 1.456 0.801 0.7 Russia 1.281 1.103 0.461 0.4 Middle East 2.562 2.286 1.977 2.1 Turkey 0.742 0.658 0.448 0.5 Saudi Arabia 0.630 0.535 0.468 0.5 Africa 2.265 2.174 2.108 2.2 North Africa 1.480 1.475 1.419 1.5 Egypt 0.928 0.939 0.957 1.0 Sub-Saharan Africa 0.785 0.699 0.689 0.7 Oceania 0.534 0.545 0.499 0.5 Transhipments 2/ 0.000 0.000 0.135 0.1 Total 2/ 57.286 53.642 49.004 49.0 Total may not add due to rounding. 1/ New Independent States (NIS) are the former Soviet Union, including the Baltic Republics. 2/ Transshipments through Canada are distributed by country in fiscal 1997 and fiscal 1998, but are included in the total only for 1999 and 2000. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- END_OF_FILE