OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE March 1, 2000 February 2000, ERS-AES-25 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE is published four times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. This release contains only the text of the report -- tables and graphicsare not included. Subscriptions to the printed version of this report are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock # SUB-AES-4035, $30/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Economic Research Service, and Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture OUTLOOK for U.S. Agricultural Trade February 24, 2000 AES-25 FISCAL 2000 U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORT FORECAST RAISED TO $49.5 BILLION Fiscal year 2000 U.S. agricultural exports are forecast at $49.5 billion, up $500 million from both the November estimate and fiscal 1999. This estimate does not include approximately 3 million tons of recently announced food aid, valued at about $500 million. About 75 percent of the 3 million tons will be wheat and wheat flour. These donations will be included in future estimates when more program details become available. Gains in value and volume of livestock and poultry products, horticulture products, and cotton primarily drive the overall 2000 export increase over 1999. Prices of livestock products have begun to rise, and cotton demand has strengthened. Low prices and strong foreign competition are preventing overall recovery in grain and oilseed exports. The Western Hemisphere and the Middle East are the main destinations for projected larger exports, reflecting economic expansion in 2000 in these regions. Forecast exports to Asia are unchanged from 1999. U.S. agricultural imports projected for fiscal 2000 are forecast at $38 billion, unchanged from November and $500 million above 1999. The robust U.S. economy and strong dollar are driving import demand. Horticultural products lead the expected growth. The forecast U.S. agricultural trade surplus remains at $11.5 billion, the lowest since fiscal 1987. Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1995-2000 Year ending September 30 Item 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Fiscal 2000 Nov. Feb. Billion dollars Exports 54.6 59.8 57.3 53.6 49.0 49.0 49.5 Imports 29.9 32.6 35.8 37.0 37.5 38.0 38.0 Balance 24.7 27.2 21.5 16.6 11.5 11.0 11.5 This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the Feb. 11, 2000, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board and released February 24, 2000. Contents Fiscal 2000 Agricultural Exports Commodity Highlights Economic Outlook Regional Highlights U.S. Agricultural Export Programs Import Highlights Tables Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years 1995-2000 Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by commodity, 1999-2000 Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports: Volume by commodity, 1999-2000 Table 4--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by region, 1999-2000 Table 5--U.S. agricultural imports: Value by commodity, 1999-2000 Table 6--U.S. agricultural imports: Volume by commodity, 1999-2000 Table 7--U.S. agricultural imports: Value by region, 1999-2000 Coordinator (ERS) Carolyn Whitton 202-694-5287, Leader, Trade Data Analysis Agricultural and Trade Outlook Branch, Market and Trade Economics Division, Economic Research Service (ERS) Coordinator (FAS) Ernest Carter 202-720-2922, Special Assistant, Office of Deputy Administrator, Commodity and Marketing Programs, Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, D.C. 20250 The forecasts in the Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade are based on information provided by the Market & Trade Economics Division of the ERS and the Commodity Divisions of FAS. Editorial support is furnished by Martha R. Evans, Information Services Division, ERS. All telephones are area code 202. Commodity Information--ERS: Ed Allen (Wheat/Coarse Grains, 694-5288); Mark Ash (Oilseeds, 694-5289); Nathan Childs (Rice, 694-5292); Dave Harvey (Poultry, 694-5177); Mildred Haley (Pork, 694-5176); Andy Jerardo (Imports, 694-5323); Dale Leuck (Beef 694-5186); Gary Lucier (Horticulture, 694-5253); Steve MacDonald (Cotton, 694-5305); Stacey Rosen (Food Aid, 694-5164); Matt Shane (Macroeconomic projections 694-5282). Commodity Information--FAS: Loyd Coonrod (Seeds, 720-9491); Alan Holz (Oilseeds, 720-0143); James Johnson (Tobacco, 720-9497); Martha Keplinger and Mark Rowse (Export Credit Guarantees, 720-3277 & 720-0624); Andy Levin (Cotton, 720-9488); Debra Pumphrey (Horticultural and Tropical Products, 720-8899); Lee Schatz (Grains and Feeds, 720-5429); Kimberly Svec (Dairy, Livestock, & Poultry 720-6553). Regional projections--ERS: Jim Stout (Asia & Western Hemisphere, 694-5237) & Anita Regmi (Europe, Africa, & Middle East 694-5161). Regional information--Chris Bolling (Brazil, 694-5212); Nancy Cochrane (East Europe, 694-5143); Hunter Colby (China, 694-5215); John Dyck (Japan & South Korea, 694-5221); Anwarul Hoque (South Asia, 694-5222); Sophia Wu Huang (Taiwan, 694-5225); Susan Leetma (European Union, 694-5153; Bill Liefert (New Independent States, 694-5156); John Link (Mexico, 694-5228); Suchada Langley (Canada, 694-5227). The Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade is published in February, May/June, August, and November/December. The next issue will be released June 2, 2000. The summary and full report may be accessed electronically at http://www.econ.ag.gov or call (202) 694-5050. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs and activities on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, or marital or family status. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (Braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact USDA's TARGET Center at (202) 720-2600 (voice and TDD). To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, Room 326-W, Whitten Building, 14th and Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, DC 20250-9410 or call (202) 720-5964 (voice and TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer. Commodity Highlights The forecast for fiscal 2000 exports of U.S. wheat and flour is lowered 1.4 million tons from the November forecast to 27.5 million tons valued at $3.6 billion. Wheat flour remains unchanged, but the outlook has deteriorated for wheat. Strong competition in global markets, fueled by larger-than-expected, near-record Southern Hemisphere crops, has reduced U.S. wheat export prospects from earlier expectations. Since November, U.S. coarse grain exports are increased 800,000 tons and $200 million to 54.1 million tons valued at $5 billion. The Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by commodity, 1999-2000 October-December Fiscal Fiscal 2000 Commodity 1999 2000 1999 Projected Nov. Feb. Billion dollars Grains and feeds 1/ 3.910 3.641 14.402 13.4 13.4 Wheat & flour 1.045 0.937 3.839 3.7 3.6 Rice 0.353 0.286 1.015 0.9 0.9 Coarse grains 2/ 1.402 1.336 5.607 4.8 5.0 Corn 1.279 1.157 5.039 4.3 4.4 Feeds and fodders 0.621 0.613 2.241 2.3 2.3 Oilseeds and products 3.151 2.695 8.688 8.6 8.5 Soybeans 1.945 1.715 4.748 4.7 4.8 Soybean meal 0.328 0.367 1.065 1.2 1.2 Soybean oil 0.258 0.096 0.608 0.4 0.3 Livestock products 1.901 2.157 7.197 7.8 8.2 Beef, pork & variety meats 0.974 1.191 4.102 4.5 4.8 Hides & skins, incl. furs 0.255 0.288 1.108 1.1 1.1 Poultry & products 0.549 0.589 2.056 2.1 2.2 Poultry meat 0.461 0.510 1.743 1.7 1.8 Dairy products 0.224 0.256 0.855 0.9 0.9 Tobacco, unmanufactured 0.384 0.303 1.376 1.3 1.3 Cotton & linters 0.681 0.342 1.323 1.5 1.7 Seeds 0.254 0.242 0.811 0.9 0.9 Horticultural products 2.763 2.739 10.256 10.5 10.5 Fruits & preparations 0.823 0.805 3.272 3.5 3.5 Vegetables & preparations 0.740 0.745 2.819 2.8 2.8 Tree nuts & preparations 0.414 0.332 1.077 1.1 1.1 Sugar & tropical products 0.516 0.565 2.038 2.0 2.0 Major bulk products 3/ 5.710 4.819 17.808 16.8 17.2 Total 4/ 14.333 13.529 49.004 49.0 49.5 1/ Includes pulses and processed grain products. 2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 3/ Includes wheat, rice, coarse grains, soybeans, cotton, and tobacco. 4/ Total includes a small amount of miscellaneous products not elsewhere specified. export forecast for corn is raised 500,000 tons and $100 million to 48 million tons valued at $4.4 billion. Despite slightly improved prospects, the problems of increased export competition in global corn markets (especially from China) and stagnant global demand remain. The forecast for fiscal 2000 rice exports remains unchanged from November at 3.1 million tons valued at $900 million. Abundant supplies in nearly all exporting countries continue to pressure prices lower and slow U.S. exports. The overall fiscal 2000 forecast for U.S. oilseed and products is reduced slightly from November to $8.5 billion. With respect to the major products, the estimate for soybeans is raised 800,000 tons from November to 24.4 million tons and value rises to $4.8 billion. Despite an estimated 800,000 ton drop in domestic soybean production, estimates of import demand for beans rather than meal have been increased for major markets such as China, the European Union (EU), and Japan. Since Southern Hemisphere suppliers prefer to export products over beans, export competition is somewhat reduced. U.S. soybean meal export volume is reduced 300,000 tons, largely reflecting decreased demand from the EU and China, but slightly higher export unit values leave total value unchanged at $1.2 Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports: Volume by commodity, 1999-2000 October-December Fiscal Fiscal 2000 Commodity 1999 2000 1999 Projected Nov. Feb. Million metric tons Wheat 7.827 7.307 28.818 27.9 26.5 Wheat flour 0.246 0.265 0.950 1.0 1.0 Rice 1.147 1.008 3.086 3.1 3.1 Coarse grains 1/ 14.252 14.823 57.710 53.3 54.1 Corn 13.015 12.903 51.886 47.5 48.0 Feeds & fodders 3.129 3.275 11.751 11.6 11.6 Oilseeds and products 12.362 12.249 33.592 34.6 34.7 Soybeans 9.052 9.136 22.974 23.6 24.4 Soybean meal 1.924 2.038 6.457 6.7 6.4 Soybean oil 0.413 0.219 1.076 0.8 0.7 Beef, pork & variety meats 0.981 0.985 1.579 1.7 1.7 Poultry meat 0.570 0.717 2.377 2.5 2.6 Animal fats 0.562 0.707 1.395 1.4 1.4 Tobacco, unmanufactured 0.056 0.040 0.205 0.2 0.2 Cotton & linters 0.462 0.294 0.922 1.3 1.4 Horticultural products 1.971 1.939 7.334 7.6 7.6 Sugar & tropical products 0.333 0.326 1.298 1.3 1.3 Total major bulk products 2/ 32.795 32.610 113.714 109.4 109.7 1/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 2/ Includes wheat, rice, coarse grains, soybeans, cotton, and tobacco. billion. Reduced volumes and lower unit prices decrease the soybean oil estimate to 700,000 tons valued at $300 million. Higher U.S. oil stocks and upward revisions in Malaysian palm oil production are trimming soybean oil exports and pressuring prices lower. The forecast for fiscal 2000 U.S. cotton exports is raised 100,000 tons and roughly $200 million over November, to 1.4 million tons valued at $1.7 billion. Some recovery in demand for cotton is evident. Prospective U.S. exports have improved because of higher than average production of short staple export-quality cotton, increased foreign import demand, and the Step 2 program. The GSM Credit Guarantee Program is supporting cotton sales to Turkey. Tobacco is steady at 200,000 tons valued at just over $1.3 billion. The fiscal 2000 forecast for U.S. exports of livestock, poultry, and dairy products is increased $500 million from the November forecast to $11.3 billion. The forecast for beef and pork shipments rises to $4.8 billion, mostly due to stronger average export prices. Reduced year-over-year U.S. cattle and hog inventories are boosting meat prices, and beef sales volumes to Japan and Korea are exceeding previous expectations. In livestock trade, U.S. cattle exports to Canada have increased. The faster than expected pace of broiler meat exports to Asia and Russia supports an upward revision in the value of poultry meat exports. Export forecasts for hides and skins, dairy products, and animal fats remain unchanged. At $10.5 billion, the fiscal 2000 forecast for U.S. horticultural exports is unchanged from November. The recovery in California's orange crop and larger strawberry and grapefruit crops continue to support this forecast. On the other hand, declines in almond and walnut prices are expected in response to record U.S. and world supplies. Looking at the key overseas markets, further sales gains to Mexico are expected. Economic Outlook Year 2000 is projected to be the beginning of a period of high growth and trade after what have been some very turbulent times in the global economy. The global financial crisis has ended. Except for Japan, rapid recoveries are underway in almost all the crisis-affected countries. Some uncertainty has been taken out of the international economy. Overall world Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is projected to climb to nearly 3.3 percent in 2000, increased from 2.6 percent in 1999. Foreign growth of 2.1 percent in 1999 is expected to expand to 3.2 percent in 2000, as Southeast Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East rebound from recessions. The European Union, Eastern Europe, the rest of Asia, and Africa are also projected to have increased economic growth in 2000. In the developing countries, growth rose to 2.9 percent in 1999 and is forecast to accelerate to 4.6 percent in 2000. In the industrialized nations, the European Union's expansion increased to 2.2 percent in 1999 and is projected to rise further to 3.1 percent in 2000. But, Japan is still stumbling along. After modest growth in the first half of 1999, Japan appears to have returned to recession in the second half of the year. Although some positive growth for Japan in 2000 of between 1 and 2 percent is anticipated, it is not likely to be the hoped for 2 to 3 percent. The United States' economy continues to grow robustly. Fourth-quarter annualized growth in the United States was 5.8 percent, matched by productivity growth of more than 5 percent. The U.S. economy has now achieved the longest sustained period of growth in the 20th century. Continued rapid growth in the 3.5- to 4-percent range for 2000 seems likely. The continued robust growth in the United States, above what most analysts consider long-term sustainable levels, has led the Federal Reserve to raise short-term interest rates. It is anticipated that a further increase in interest rates is likely. And at 4 percent unemployment, labor markets are extremely tight. In addition, oil prices have more than doubled over the past year. Higher interest rates, tight labor markets, and increasing energy costs will lead to higher costs throughout the marketing chain. The real U.S. dollar's exchange value is projected to decline in 2000 with larger current account deficits in the United States and as higher inflation in the rest of the world reduces U.S. purchasing power. The dollar is forecast to be relatively stable against the currencies of the United States' largest markets, Canada and Mexico, but likely will depreciate modestly against the European Union. The dollar is forecast to depreciate in real terms against the Japanese yen and other Asian currencies. The dollar should decline against Latin American currencies in 2000 as recoveries and falling inflation in South America improve the attractiveness of their currencies to investors. The anticipated decline in the dollar's value provides some support for U.S. agricultural exports in 2000. Regional Highlights The $500 million increase in projected fiscal 2000 exports over November 1999 has been distributed to Canada, Turkey, Brazil, Russia, and other New Independent States (NIS) slightly raising expected U.S. exports to the Middle East, the Western Hemisphere, and the NIS from November estimates. Exports of grains, vegetables, and soybeans to Canada show early gains. Brazil and Turkey are expected to buy more U.S. cotton than had been anticipated earlier. Global demand for textiles is increasing this year. Latin America, particularly Brazil, Mexico, and Chile, is also expected to take more corn than anticipated in November. Early 2000 shipments of poultry and products to Russia and other NIS states are stronger than had been expected in November. Year-to-year, prospects for increased exports to Canada, Mexico, and some Latin American markets continue bright. The North American Free Table 4--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by region, 1999-2000 October-December Fiscal Fiscal 2000 Region 1999 2000 1999 Forecast Nov. Feb. Billion dollars Asia (excluding Mid East) 5.214 4.894 18.435 18.3 18.2 Japan 2.282 2.270 8.931 9.0 9.0 China 0.461 0.312 1.002 1.0 0.9 Hong Kong 0.407 0.352 1.264 1.2 1.2 Taiwan 0.591 0.500 2.046 2.0 1.9 South Korea 0.641 0.615 2.479 2.6 2.6 Southeast Asia 0.612 0.700 2.204 2.1 2.1 Indonesia 0.141 0.185 0.492 0.5 0.5 Philippines 0.166 0.221 0.730 0.7 0.7 Malaysia 0.096 0.078 0.332 0.3 0.3 Thailand 0.145 0.147 0.406 0.4 0.4 South Asia 0.215 0.140 0.500 0.5 0.5 Western Hemisphere 5.090 4.783 17.458 17.6 17.8 Canada 1.775 1.891 6.957 7.0 7.1 Mexico 1.726 1.688 5.675 5.9 5.9 Brazil 0.210 0.055 0.369 0.3 0.4 Venezuela 0.141 0.101 0.457 0.4 0.4 Other Latin America 1.238 1.049 3.999 4.0 4.0 Western Europe 2.538 1.997 7.498 7.4 7.4 European Union 2.450 1.939 6.928 6.9 6.9 Central and Eastern Europe 0.064 0.045 0.190 0.2 0.2 New Independent States 1/ 0.117 0.223 0.801 0.7 0.9 Russia 0.060 0.116 0.461 0.4 0.5 Middle East 0.591 0.661 1.977 2.1 2.2 Turkey 0.152 0.189 0.448 0.5 0.6 Saudi Arabia 0.154 0.134 0.468 0.5 0.5 Africa 0.576 0.561 2.108 2.2 2.2 North Africa 0.385 0.392 1.419 1.5 1.5 Egypt 0.262 0.285 0.957 1.0 1.0 Sub-Saharan Africa 0.190 0.170 0.689 0.7 0.7 Oceania 0.144 0.129 0.499 0.5 0.5 Transshipments 2/ 0.000 0.236 0.135 0.1 0.1 Total 2/ 14.333 13.529 49.004 49.0 49.5 Total may not add due to rounding. 1/ New Independent States (NIS) are the former Soviet Union, including the Baltic Republics. 2/ Transshipments through Canada are distributed by country in 1998, but are included in the total only for 1999 and 2000. Trade Agreement (NAFTA) continues to promote U.S. agricultural exports. And Mexican Government subsidies continue to decline. Latin America also is showing more robust economic growth prospects, as markets recover from last year's recession. The Middle East is another bright spot; economic growth continues to improve in virtually every country in the region. The lifting of sanctions to Iran has already begun to boost exports to that country, particularly exports of corn. Last year's drought in some countries is boosting grain demand in this region as well. Prospects for U.S. exports to Asia in 2000 are largely unchanged from 1999. South Korea is expected to show the most improvement due to gains in economic growth. Overall U.S. agricultural exports to South Korea are projected 5 percent greater than in 1999. Exports of beef are projected to rise. However, much of South Korea's expected increase in corn imports is likely to come from China rather than the United States. Exports to Japan also are projected up slightly year-to-year, but the gain is less than 1 percent and unchanged from November. Japan's economic growth early in 1999 did not continue to show the same strength in the latter part of 1999. Early sales of U.S. corn to Taiwan and poultry to China and Hong Kong also look more promising than had earlier been expected. U.S. Agricultural Export Programs Export Subsidy Programs As of February 16, 2000, approximately 52,200 metric tons were committed for export under the Dairy Export Incentive Programs (DEIP), with a total bonus value of about $47 million. Products were whole milk powder $9.34 million; nonfat dry milk $31.78 million, cheese $420,000, anhydrous milkfat $4.2 million, and butter $1.3 million. On the same date, under the Export Enhancement Program there was approximately 852 metric tons of poultry committed, with a total bonus value of nearly $554,000. CCC Export Credit Guarantee Programs Country allocations under the fiscal 2000 export credit guarantee programs (GSM-102, GSM-103, the Supplier Credit Guarantee Program, and the Facility Guarantee Program) totaled $4.9 billion as of February 11, 2000. Sale approvals of $1.2 billion were 23 percent higher than fiscal 1999 approvals at the same time last year. Since November 1999, GSM-102 credit guarantees of $995 million were announced for coverage of agricultural products. An additional $115 million was announced for GSM-103 and $20 million for the Supplier Credit Guarantee Program. U.S. Food Aid Programs On February 11, 2000, Vice President Al Gore announced that the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) will donate approximately 3 million additional tons of surplus U.S. agricultural commodities as food aid under USDA's Section 416(b) food donation authority. This donation will be valued at about $500 million. About 75 percent of the commodities donated will be wheat and wheat flour. The remaining commodities will include soybeans, soy products, rice, and milk powder. For fiscal 2000, program funding for Title I and Food for Progress programs is valued at about $190 million. Twelve countries will be eligible to receive the funding under Title I and $10 million will be used for agreements with private entities, while six countries will be eligible under Food for Progress funds. Funding under the Title II program is estimated to total roughly $280 million, with commodity allocations expected to exceed 1 million tons. Thirty percent of this total is expected to go to Sub-Saharan Africa. The largest single recipient under this program is Peru, followed closely by North Korea. Commodity allocations for fiscal year 1999 totaled about 9.58 million tons with a value of $2 billion. Of this total, 3.1 million tons went to Russia under the PL 480 Title I and Food for Progress programs as well as section 416(b). The second largest recipient of U.S. food aid in fiscal 1999 was North Korea at nearly 800,000 tons, followed by Bangladesh at just over 700,000 tons and Indonesia at roughly 660,000 tons. U.S. food aid to Sub-Saharan Africa totaled just over 1 million tons, with Ethiopia receiving a quarter of that amount. Import Highlights U.S. agricultural imports projected for fiscal 2000 are unchanged from November's forecast at $38 billion and $500 million above 1999. This gain is the same as the 1999 increase over 1998. Imports of high-value products such as red meat, cheese, wine, fruits, and vegetables make up most of the increase. While October-December 1999 imports were higher for these products than the same period in 1998, this pace is not expected to be sustained over the fiscal year. The robust U.S. economy and strong dollar are driving import demand. Horticulture products will lead U.S. imports in 2000, amounting to more than $16 billion. Together with imports of noncompetitive tropical products (coffee, cocoa, and rubber), they make up half of total U.S. imports. The expected increase of almost $1 billion in horticulture, somewhat less than 1999's $1.4 billion gain over 1998, is accounted for by larger imports of fruits (up $220 million), vegetables (up $370 million), and wine and malt beverages (up $300 million). These purchases are attributed to higher income growth in the United States as well as relative to other countries. Imports of animal products are forecast at $7.3 billion, slightly higher than November's forecast. Red meat imports are projected to be higher in 2000 than in 1999 by about $100 million. Beef imports are expected to rise as U.S. beef production declines. Cheese imports are not expected to differ much from 1999's volume. Grain imports are expected to be down 275,000 tons in volume from 1999. Wheat, corn, and feed imports all will decline despite lower U.S. domestic production. Since average grain prices may be slightly higher than in 1999, the value of grain imports could rise fractionally. Table 5--U.S. agricultural imports: Value by commodity, 1999-2000 October-December Fiscal Fiscal 2000 Commodity 1999 2000 1999 Projected Nov. Feb. Billion dollars Animals and products 1.720 1.863 7.052 7.2 7.3 Live animals, except poultry 0.451 0.438 1.439 1.5 1.5 Red meats and products 0.632 0.729 3.088 3.2 3.3 Dairy products 0.350 0.447 1.572 1.5 1.5 Grains and feeds 0.828 0.787 2.943 2.8 2.8 Grains 0.250 0.190 0.727 0.7 0.6 Feeds and products 0.578 0.597 2.216 2.1 2.2 Horticulture products 3.342 3.575 15.321 15.7 16.2 Fruits & preps., incl. juices 0.887 0.932 4.683 4.8 4.9 Bananas 0.285 0.273 1.212 1.2 1.2 Nuts and preparations 0.197 0.184 0.708 0.7 0.7 Vegetables and preparations 0.963 1.088 4.527 4.6 4.9 Wine and malt beverages 0.939 1.025 3.995 4.2 4.3 Nursery and cut flowers 0.264 0.262 1.076 1.1 1.1 Sugar and related products 0.351 0.358 1.578 1.6 1.6 Tobacco, unmanufactured 0.228 0.177 0.742 0.7 0.6 Oilseeds and products 0.559 0.527 2.022 1.9 1.9 Coffee and products 0.879 0.723 2.967 3.0 2.7 Cocoa and products 0.434 0.399 1.531 1.6 1.5 Rubber and allied gums 0.268 0.218 0.739 0.8 0.7 Total agricultural imports 1/ 9.157 9.223 37.447 38.0 38.0 1/ Total includes a small amount of miscellaneous products not elsewhere specified. However, among the grains, only rice imports are expected to be up, but only marginally in value because of lower projected prices and larger domestic production. Projected oilseed imports are down in value and volume in 2000 due to lower import volume of soybean meal as U.S. meal production rises modestly. Expected higher meal prices are offset by possibly lower prices for soybeans and soybean oil even as U.S. soybean production falls. As U.S. production of sugar rises from 1999 levels, import volume is expected to fall, leaving import value largely unchanged. Tobacco imports are forecast to decline in value because of lower prices. Shipments of Oriental tobacco have already declined in value and volume. Except for Africa, U.S. imports from all regions are expected to increase in 2000. Meat, wine, and vegetable imports from Europe, red meat from Canada, coffee from Brazil, and fruits from Chile and Mexico have all increased significantly from the first quarter of fiscal 1999. Import forecasts by country and region are slightly higher from Western Europe and Oceania and lower from Latin America than forecast in November. One-third of U.S. imports come from Canada and Mexico, where future growth is also expected. Table 6--U.S. agricultural imports: Volume by commodity, 1999-2000 October-December Fiscal Fiscal 2000 Commodity 1999 2000 1999 Projected Nov. Feb. Million metric tons Fruit juices 1/ 6.732 7.134 31.655 33.0 33.0 Wine and malt beverages 1/ 5.323 5.674 24.831 27.0 26.5 Red meats 0.269 0.332 1.398 1.5 1.6 Cheese and casein 0.072 0.088 0.304 0.3 0.3 Grains and feeds 1.850 1.628 6.457 6.1 6.0 Grains 1.473 1.336 5.276 5.0 5.0 Feeds and fodders 0.376 0.292 1.181 1.1 1.0 Fruits and preparations 1.611 1.579 7.942 8.1 8.0 Bananas 1.002 0.979 4.418 4.4 4.3 Nuts and preparations 0.068 0.070 0.229 0.2 0.2 Cane and beet sugar 0.475 0.352 1.692 1.6 1.4 Tobacco, unmanufactured 0.059 0.042 0.217 0.2 0.2 Oilseeds and products 1.102 0.986 3.899 3.9 3.6 Coffee and products 0.256 0.306 1.294 1.3 1.4 Cocoa and products 0.206 0.193 0.865 0.9 0.8 Rubber and allied gums 0.268 0.307 1.148 1.2 1.2 1/ Liquid imports are measured in hectoliters. All other imports exclude items measured in hectoliters, pieces, dozens, or numbers and include only items measured in metric tons. Table 7--U.S. agricultural imports: Value by region, 1999-2000 October-December Fiscal Fiscal 2000 Region 1999 2000 1999 Forecast Nov. Feb. Billion dollars Western Hemisphere 4.749 4.655 20.181 20.4 20.2 Canada 2.004 2.004 7.897 7.9 7.9 Mexico 0.966 0.988 4.828 4.9 4.9 Brazil 0.313 0.331 1.438 1.4 1.5 Colombia 0.373 0.312 1.189 1.2 1.1 Chile 0.142 0.174 0.926 0.9 1.0 Other South America 0.376 0.395 1.667 1.7 1.7 Central America 0.474 0.365 1.887 2.0 1.8 Costa Rica 0.165 0.186 0.843 0.9 0.9 Caribbean 0.101 0.087 0.349 0.4 0.3 Western Europe 2.101 2.225 8.013 8.0 8.2 European Union 2.051 2.180 7.841 7.9 8.1 Eastern Europe 0.059 0.071 0.227 0.3 0.3 New Independent States 1/ 0.014 0.023 0.062 0.1 0.1 Asia, less Middle East 1.446 1.383 5.372 5.5 5.5 China 0.202 0.190 0.761 0.8 0.8 Southeast Asia 0.886 0.848 3.063 3.2 3.2 Indonesia 0.376 0.373 1.185 1.3 1.3 Thailand 0.180 0.169 0.689 0.8 0.8 South Asia 0.172 0.174 0.871 0.9 0.9 India 0.153 0.157 0.800 0.8 0.8 Oceania 0.408 0.506 2.164 2.2 2.3 Australia 0.239 0.273 1.134 1.2 1.2 New Zealand 0.157 0.206 0.949 1.0 1.0 Africa 0.235 0.180 0.863 0.9 0.8 Ivory Coast 0.067 0.060 0.295 0.3 0.3 Middle East 0.146 0.180 0.564 0.6 0.6 Turkey 0.116 0.137 0.382 0.4 0.4 TOTAL 9.157 9.223 37.447 38.0 38.0 1/ New Independent States (NIS) are the former Soviet Union, including the Baltic Republics. 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