OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE-Summary February 24, 2000 February 2000, ERS-AES-25 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS is published four times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. This release contains only the text of the report -- tables and graphics are not included. Subscriptions to the published version of this report are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock # ERS-AES, $30/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FISCAL 2000 U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORT FORECAST RAISED TO $49.5 BILLION BILLION Fiscal year 2000 U.S. agricultural exports are forecast at $49.5 billion, up $500 million from both the November estimate and fiscal 1999. This estimate does not include approximately 3 million tons of recently announced food aid, valued at about $500 million. About 75 percent of the 3 million tons will be wheat and wheat flour. These donations will be included in future estimates when more program details become available. Gains in value and volume of livestock and poultry products, horticulture products, and cotton primarily drive the overall 2000 export increase over 1999. Prices of livestock products have begun to rise, and cotton demand has strengthened. Low prices and strong foreign competition are preventing overall recovery in grain and oilseed exports. The Western Hemisphere and the Middle East are the main destinations for projected larger exports, reflecting economic expansion in 2000 in these regions. Forecast exports to Asia are unchanged from 1999. U.S. agricultural imports projected for fiscal 2000 are forecast at $38 billion, unchanged from November and $500 million above 1999. The robust U.S. economy and strong dollar are driving import demand. Horticultural products lead the expected growth. The forecast U.S. agricultural trade surplus remains at $11.5 billion, the lowest since fiscal 1987. Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1995-2000 Year ending September 30 Item 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Fiscal 2000 Nov. Feb. Billion dollars Exports 54.6 59.8 57.3 53.6 49.0 49.0 49.5 Imports 29.9 32.6 35.8 37.0 37.5 38.0 38.0 Balance 24.7 27.2 21.5 16.6 11.5 11.0 11.5 This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the Feb. 11, 2000, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by commodity, 1999-2000 October-December Fiscal Fiscal 2000 Commodity 1999 2000 1999 Projected Nov. Feb. Billion dollars Grains and feeds 1/ 3.910 3.641 14.402 13.4 13.4 Wheat & flour 1.045 0.937 3.839 3.7 3.6 Rice 0.353 0.286 1.015 0.9 0.9 Coarse grains 2/ 1.402 1.336 5.607 4.8 5.0 Corn 1.279 1.157 5.039 4.3 4.4 Feeds and fodders 0.621 0.613 2.241 2.3 2.3 Oilseeds and products 3.151 2.695 8.688 8.6 8.5 Soybeans 1.945 1.715 4.748 4.7 4.8 Soybean meal 0.328 0.367 1.065 1.2 1.2 Soybean oil 0.258 0.096 0.608 0.4 0.3 Livestock products 1.901 2.157 7.197 7.8 8.2 Beef, pork & variety meats 0.974 1.191 4.102 4.5 4.8 Hides & skins, incl. furs 0.255 0.288 1.108 1.1 1.1 Poultry & products 0.549 0.589 2.056 2.1 2.2 Poultry meat 0.461 0.510 1.743 1.7 1.8 Dairy products 0.224 0.256 0.855 0.9 0.9 Tobacco, unmanufactured 0.384 0.303 1.376 1.3 1.3 Cotton & linters 0.681 0.342 1.323 1.5 1.7 Seeds 0.254 0.242 0.811 0.9 0.9 Horticultural products 2.763 2.739 10.256 10.5 10.5 Fruits & preparations 0.823 0.805 3.272 3.5 3.5 Vegetables & preparations 0.740 0.745 2.819 2.8 2.8 Tree nuts & preparations 0.414 0.332 1.077 1.1 1.1 Sugar & tropical products 0.516 0.565 2.038 2.0 2.0 Major bulk products 3/ 5.710 4.819 17.808 16.8 17.2 Total 4/ 14.333 13.529 49.004 49.0 49.5 1/ Includes pulses and processed grain products. 2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 3/ Includes wheat, rice, coarse grains, soybeans, cotton, and tobacco. 4/ Total includes a small amount of miscellaneous products not elsewhere specified. Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports: Volume by commodity, 1999-2000 October-December Fiscal Fiscal 2000 Commodity 1999 2000 1999 Projected Nov. Feb. Million metric tons Wheat 7.827 7.307 28.818 27.9 26.5 Wheat flour 0.246 0.265 0.950 1.0 1.0 Rice 1.147 1.008 3.086 3.1 3.1 Coarse grains 1/ 14.252 14.823 57.710 53.3 54.1 Corn 13.015 12.903 51.886 47.5 48.0 Feeds & fodders 3.129 3.275 11.751 11.6 11.6 Oilseeds and products 12.362 12.249 33.592 34.6 34.7 Soybeans 9.052 9.136 22.974 23.6 24.4 Soybean meal 1.924 2.038 6.457 6.7 6.4 Soybean oil 0.413 0.219 1.076 0.8 0.7 Beef, pork & variety meats 0.981 0.985 1.579 1.7 1.7 Poultry meat 0.570 0.717 2.377 2.5 2.6 Animal fats 0.562 0.707 1.395 1.4 1.4 Tobacco, unmanufactured 0.056 0.040 0.205 0.2 0.2 Cotton & linters 0.462 0.294 0.922 1.3 1.4 Horticultural products 1.971 1.939 7.334 7.6 7.6 Sugar & tropical products 0.333 0.326 1.298 1.3 1.3 Total major bulk products 2/ 32.795 32.610 113.714 109.4 109.7 1/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 2/ Includes wheat, rice, coarse grains, soybeans, cotton, and tobacco. Table 4--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by region, 1999-2000 October-December Fiscal Fiscal 2000 Region 1999 2000 1999 Forecast Nov. Feb. Billion dollars Asia (excluding Mid East) 5.214 4.894 18.435 18.3 18.2 Japan 2.282 2.270 8.931 9.0 9.0 China 0.461 0.312 1.002 1.0 0.9 Hong Kong 0.407 0.352 1.264 1.2 1.2 Taiwan 0.591 0.500 2.046 2.0 1.9 South Korea 0.641 0.615 2.479 2.6 2.6 Southeast Asia 0.612 0.700 2.204 2.1 2.1 Indonesia 0.141 0.185 0.492 0.5 0.5 Philippines 0.166 0.221 0.730 0.7 0.7 Malaysia 0.096 0.078 0.332 0.3 0.3 Thailand 0.145 0.147 0.406 0.4 0.4 South Asia 0.215 0.140 0.500 0.5 0.5 Western Hemisphere 5.090 4.783 17.458 17.6 17.8 Canada 1.775 1.891 6.957 7.0 7.1 Mexico 1.726 1.688 5.675 5.9 5.9 Brazil 0.210 0.055 0.369 0.3 0.4 Venezuela 0.141 0.101 0.457 0.4 0.4 Other Latin America 1.238 1.049 3.999 4.0 4.0 Western Europe 2.538 1.997 7.498 7.4 7.4 European Union 2.450 1.939 6.928 6.9 6.9 Central and Eastern Europe 0.064 0.045 0.190 0.2 0.2 New Independent States 1/ 0.117 0.223 0.801 0.7 0.9 Russia 0.060 0.116 0.461 0.4 0.5 Middle East 0.591 0.661 1.977 2.1 2.2 Turkey 0.152 0.189 0.448 0.5 0.6 Saudi Arabia 0.154 0.134 0.468 0.5 0.5 Africa 0.576 0.561 2.108 2.2 2.2 North Africa 0.385 0.392 1.419 1.5 1.5 Egypt 0.262 0.285 0.957 1.0 1.0 Sub-Saharan Africa 0.190 0.170 0.689 0.7 0.7 Oceania 0.144 0.129 0.499 0.5 0.5 Transshipments 2/ 0.000 0.236 0.135 0.1 0.1 Total 2/ 14.333 13.529 49.004 49.0 49.5 Total may not add due to rounding. 1/ New Independent States (NIS) are the former Soviet Union, including the Baltic Republics. 2/ Transshipments through Canada are distributed by country in 1998, but are included in the total only for 1999 and 2000. 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