OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE-Summary June 2, 2000 June 2000, ERS-AES-26 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS is published four times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. This release contains only the text of the report -- tables and graphics are not included. Subscriptions to the published version of this report are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock # ERS-AES, $30/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FISCAL 2000 U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS FORECAST AT $50 BILLION The forecast for fiscal 2000 U.S. agricultural exports is increased to $50 billion, $500 million more than estimated in February and $1 billion above 1999. Livestock products, cotton, and soybeans account for much of the gain both year-to-year and since February. Generally, export unit values remain weak and well below the peaks of 1995 and 1996 with the exception of beef and pork, which are above last year. But, demand is expanding more rapidly than had earlier been anticipated. In 2000, the world economy is expected to return to a pace of growth rivaling the high recorded in 1996, prior to the Asian financial crisis. Nearly all of the countries that were recently in recession are expected to show some growth. Robust economic growth and the strong U.S. dollar continue to boost U.S. demand for agricultural imports. Imports in October through March 2000 rose more rapidly than had been anticipated, pushing the import outlook up to $39 billion for fiscal 2000, $1 billion greater than projected in February and $1.5 billion over last year. Since February, expected imports of red meats, feeds and grain products, nuts, and coffee have been increased. With imports expanding more rapidly than exports, the projected export surplus again slips to $11 billion, the lowest since fiscal 1987. Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1995-2000 Year ending September 30 Item 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Fiscal 2000 Feb. June Billion dollars Exports 54.6 59.8 57.3 53.6 49.0 49.5 50.0 Imports 29.9 32.6 35.8 37.0 37.5 38.0 39.0 Balance 24.7 27.2 21.5 16.6 11.5 11.5 11.0 This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the May 12, 2000, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by commodity, 1999-2000 October-March Fiscal Fiscal 2000 Commodity 1999 2000 1999 Projected Feb. June Billion dollars Grains and feeds 1/ 7.349 7.009 14.402 13.4 13.6 Wheat & flour 1.844 1.659 3.839 3.6 3.6 Rice 0.661 0.586 1.015 0.9 0.9 Coarse grains 2/ 2.733 2.670 5.607 5.0 5.0 Corn 2.424 2.295 5.039 4.4 4.4 Feeds and fodders 1.215 1.220 2.241 2.3 2.4 Oilseeds and products 5.354 5.294 8.688 8.5 8.5 Soybeans 3.205 3.409 4.748 4.8 5.0 Soybean meal 0.626 0.729 1.065 1.2 1.2 Soybean oil 0.420 0.180 0.608 0.3 0.3 Livestock products 3.637 4.437 7.197 8.2 8.3 Beef, pork & variety meats 1.964 2.607 4.102 4.8 4.8 Hides & skins, incl. furs 0.556 0.646 1.108 1.1 1.3 Poultry & products 1.012 1.164 2.056 2.2 2.2 Poultry meat 0.846 1.012 1.743 1.8 1.9 Dairy products 0.425 0.507 0.855 0.9 1.0 Tobacco, unmanufactured 0.791 0.704 1.376 1.3 1.3 Cotton & linters 0.883 0.946 1.323 1.7 1.8 Seeds 0.535 0.514 0.811 0.9 0.8 Horticultural products 5.180 5.151 10.256 10.5 10.4 Fruits & preparations 1.558 1.540 3.272 3.5 3.3 Vegetables & preparations 1.438 1.465 2.819 2.8 2.9 Tree nuts & preparations 0.653 0.537 1.077 1.1 1.0 Sugar & tropical products 0.985 1.036 2.038 2.0 2.1 Major bulk products 3/ 10.017 9.874 17.808 17.2 17.6 Total 4/ 26.150 26.766 49.004 49.5 50.0 1/ Includes pulses and processed grain products. 2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 3/ Includes wheat, rice, coarse grains, soybeans, cotton, and tobacco. 4/ Total includes a small amount of miscellaneous products not elsewhere specified. Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports: Volume by commodity, 1999-2000 October-March Fiscal Fiscal 2000 Commodity 1999 2000 1999 Projected Feb. June Million metric tons Wheat 13.330 12.832 28.818 26.5 27.0 Wheat flour 0.439 0.489 0.950 1.0 1.1 Rice 2.000 2.035 3.086 3.1 3.1 Coarse grains 1/ 27.516 28.379 57.710 54.1 52.3 Corn 24.408 24.439 51.886 48.0 46.0 Feeds & fodders 6.285 6.462 11.751 11.6 12.1 Oilseeds and products 21.226 23.815 33.592 34.6 35.4 Soybeans 15.110 17.757 22.974 24.4 25.7 Soybean meal 3.705 4.018 6.457 6.4 6.2 Soybean oil 0.688 0.405 1.076 0.7 0.6 Beef, pork & variety meats 0.776 0.970 1.579 1.7 1.7 Poultry meat 1.113 1.481 2.377 2.6 2.7 Animal fats 0.000 0.000 1.395 1.4 1.2 Tobacco, unmanufactured 0.122 0.105 0.205 0.2 0.2 Cotton & linters 0.593 0.835 0.922 1.4 1.5 Horticultural products 3.797 3.817 7.334 7.6 7.4 Sugar & tropical products 0.618 0.628 1.298 1.3 1.3 Total major bulk products 2/ 58.671 61.942 113.714 109.7 109.8 1/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 2/ Includes wheat, rice, coarse grains, soybeans, cotton, and tobacco. Table 4--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by region, 1999-2000 October-March Fiscal Fiscal 2000 Region 1999 2000 1999 Forecast Feb. June Billion dollars Asia (excluding Mid East) 9.703 10.188 18.468 18.2 19.2 Japan 4.665 4.835 8.940 9.0 9.2 China 0.615 0.780 1.012 0.9 1.3 Hong Kong 0.685 0.637 1.264 1.2 1.2 Taiwan 1.029 1.024 2.046 1.9 2.0 South Korea 1.233 1.305 2.483 2.6 2.6 Southeast Asia 1.152 1.378 2.213 2.1 2.4 Indonesia 0.247 0.347 0.498 0.5 0.6 Philippines 0.339 0.437 0.734 0.7 0.8 Malaysia 0.173 0.142 0.332 0.3 0.3 Thailand 0.265 0.315 0.406 0.4 0.5 South Asia 0.318 0.221 0.500 0.5 0.4 Western Hemisphere 9.145 9.195 17.459 17.8 17.9 Canada 3.400 3.733 6.957 7.1 7.5 Mexico 3.002 3.184 5.675 5.9 6.0 Brazil 0.261 0.141 0.369 0.4 0.3 Venezuela 0.271 0.204 0.458 0.4 0.4 Other Latin America 2.211 1.934 4.000 4.0 3.7 Western Europe 4.520 4.050 7.531 7.4 6.7 European Union 4.361 3.900 6.960 6.9 6.2 Central and Eastern Europe 0.112 0.089 0.190 0.2 0.2 New Independent States 1/ 0.247 0.648 0.816 0.9 1.0 Russia 0.134 0.472 0.468 0.5 0.6 Middle East 1.056 1.226 1.979 2.2 2.3 Turkey 0.249 0.380 0.448 0.6 0.7 Saudi Arabia 0.257 0.241 0.468 0.5 0.5 Africa 1.116 1.119 2.160 2.2 2.2 North Africa 0.766 0.779 1.468 1.5 1.5 Egypt 0.526 0.551 1.001 1.0 1.0 Sub-Saharan Africa 0.350 0.340 0.692 0.7 0.7 Oceania 0.252 0.250 0.499 0.5 0.5 Transshipments 2/ 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.1 0.1 Total 2/ 26.150 26.766 49.004 49.5 50.0 Total may not add due to rounding. 1/ New Independent States (NIS) are the former Soviet Union, including the Baltic Republics. 2/ Transshipments through Canada are distributed by country in 1998 and 1999, but are included in the total only for 2000. 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