OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE June 4, 2001 June 2001, ERS-AES-30 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE is published four times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. This release contains only the text of the report -- tables and graphics are not included. Subscriptions to the printed version of this report are available from the USDA order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779(U.S.customers); (703)605-6000 (other countries) and ask for stock # SUB-AES-4035, $36/year. ERS accepts MasterCard and Visa. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Forecast 2001 U.S. Agricultural Exports Raised $500 Million; Imports Dropped $1 Billion Projected fiscal 2001 U.S. agricultural exports are increased to $53.5 billion, $500 million above the February forecast and $2.6 billion over fiscal 2000. The import forecast is reduced to $39 billion, $1 billion less than in February and virtually unchanged from 2000. These changes boost the expected agricultural export surplus to $14.5 billion, the largest in 3 years. High-value products (HVP) account for almost all of the projected 2001 export growth. Estimated at $35.7 billion, 2001 HVP exports are up $1 billion from February and nearly $2.6 billion over 2000. Hides and skins lead HVP gains, as exports are increased $400 million from February and from 2000. Since February, exports of other HVPs--poultry meat and tree nuts--as well as soybeans, a bulk commodity, also are projected slightly larger, with most of the gain in volume. Much of the increase in shipments of both hides and soybeans is expected to go to China, so forecast exports to China also are raised from February. Partially offsetting these gains are expectations for weaker export volumes than anticipated in February of corn, wheat, rice, and cotton. For imports, continued weak coffee prices result in a $1-billion downward adjustment in the forecast. Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1996-2001 Year ending September 30 Item 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Fiscal 2001 Feb. May Billion dollars Exports 59.9 57.4 53.7 49.2 50.9 53.0 53.5 Imports 32.5 35.7 36.8 37.3 38.9 40.0 39.0 Balance 27.4 21.7 16.9 11.9 12.0 13.0 14.5 This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the May 10, 2001, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board and released June 1, 2001. Contents Fiscal 2001 Agricultural Exports Commodity Highlights Economic Outlook Regional Highlights U.S. Agricultural Export Programs Import Highlights Tables Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1996-2001 Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by commodity, 2000-2001 Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports: Volume by commodity, 2000-2001 Table 4--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by region, 2000-2001 Table 5--U.S. agricultural imports: Value by commodity, 2000-2001 Table 6--U.S. agricultural imports: Volume by commodity, 2000-2001 Table 7--U.S. agricultural imports: Value by region, 2000-2001 Coordinator (ERS): Carolyn Whitton (202) 694-5287, Leader, Trade Data Analysis Agriculture and Trade Outlook Branch, Market and Trade Economics Division, Economic Research Service (ERS). Coordinator (FAS): Ernest Carter (202) 720-2922, Special Assistant, Office of Deputy Administrator, Commodity and Marketing Programs, Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). U.S. Department of Agriculture Washington, D.C. 20250 The forecasts in the Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade are based on information provided by the Market & Trade Economics Division of the ERS and the Commodity Divisions of FAS. Editorial support is furnished by Martha R. Evans, Information Services Division, ERS. All telephones are area code 202. Commodity information--ERS: Beef (Dale Leuck 694-5186); Cotton (Steve MacDonald 694-5305); Food Aid (Stacey Rosen 694-5164); Horticulture (Gary Lucier 694-5253); Imports (Andy Jerardo 694-5323); Macroeconomic Projections (Matt Shane 694-5282); Oilseeds (Mark Ash 694-5289); Pork (Mildred Haley 694-5176); Poultry (Dave Harvey 694-5177); Rice (Nathan Childs 694-5292); Wheat and Coarse Grains (Ed Allen 694-5288). Commodity information--FAS: Cotton (James Johnson 690-1546); Dairy, Livestock, & Poultry (Tim Rocke 720-4761); Export Credit Guarantees (Martha Keplinger or Penny Stevenson 720-3224); Grains and Feeds (Robert Fox, 720-6722); Horticultural and Tropical Products (Nancy Hirschhorn 720-2974); Oilseeds (Alan Holz 720-0143); Seeds (Anne Player 720-7037); Tobacco (Pete Burr 720-9493). Regional projections--Asia & Western Hemisphere (Jim Stout 694-5237); Europe, Africa, & Middle East (Anita Regmi 694-5161). Regional information--Brazil (Chris Bolling 694-5212); Canada (Jim Stout 694-5237); China (Hsin-hui Hsu 694-5224 or Bryan Lohmar 694- 5214); East Europe (Nancy Cochrane 694-5143); European Union (Susan Leetma 694-5153); Japan & South Korea (John Dyck 694-5221); Mexico (John Link 694-5228); New Independent States (Bill Liefert 694-5156); South Asia (Anwarul Hoque 694-5222); Taiwan (Sophia Wu Huang 694- 5225). The Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade is published in February, May/June, August, and November/December. The next issue will be released Aug. 31, 2001. The summary and full report may be accessed electronically at http://www.ers.usda.gov/briefing/agtrade or call (202) 694-5050. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs and activities on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, or marital or family status. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (Braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact USDA's TARGET Center at (202) 720-2600 (voice and TDD). To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, Room 326-W, Whitten Building, 14th and Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, DC 20250-9410 or call (202) 720-5964 (voice and TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer. Commodity Highlights The forecast for fiscal 2001 exports of U.S. wheat and flour is reduced 1 million tons from the February estimate to 28.5 million tons, but a higher export unit value for wheat leaves total value unchanged at $3.8 billion. Wheat export volume is lowered 900,000 tons to 27.8 million tons, reflecting projections of a smaller U.S. wheat crop, higher prices, and strong competition from foreign exporters in 2001/02. Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by commodity, 2000-2001 October-March Fiscal Fiscal 2001 Commodity 2000 2001 2000 Forecast Feb. May Billion dollars Grains and feeds 1/ 7.009 7.061 13.886 14.5 14.2 Wheat & flour 1.662 1.724 3.523 3.8 3.8 Rice 0.588 0.453 0.908 0.8 0.7 Coarse grains 2/ 2.668 2.578 5.281 5.5 5.2 Corn 2.294 2.154 4.602 4.9 4.5 Feeds and fodders 1.216 1.392 2.479 2.7 2.8 Oilseeds and products 5.314 5.852 8.546 8.4 8.8 Soybeans 3.412 3.817 5.074 5.0 5.1 Soybean meal 0.728 0.799 1.226 1.2 1.2 Soybean oil 0.181 0.143 0.279 0.2 0.2 Livestock products 4.372 4.587 8.596 8.8 9.2 Beef, pork & variety meats 2.562 2.360 5.035 5.0 4.9 Hides & skins, incl. furs 0.643 0.926 1.476 1.5 1.9 Poultry & products 1.160 1.191 2.260 2.3 2.4 Poultry meat 1.009 1.034 1.962 2.0 2.1 Dairy products 0.493 0.531 0.951 1.0 1.0 Tobacco, unmanufactured 0.720 0.644 1.245 1.2 1.1 Cotton and linters 0.948 0.986 1.833 2.2 2.0 Seeds 0.505 0.448 0.789 0.8 0.8 Horticultural products 5.158 5.596 10.537 11.3 11.4 Fruits & preparations 1.540 1.697 3.361 3.7 3.7 Vegetables & preparations 1.464 1.555 2.988 3.1 3.1 Tree nuts & preparations 0.541 0.668 0.987 1.1 1.2 Sugar & tropical products 1.055 1.248 2.260 2.4 2.6 Major bulk products 3/ 9.798 10.002 17.764 18.3 17.8 Total 4/ 26.736 28.144 50.905 53.0 53.5 1/ Includes pulses and processed grain products. 2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 3/ Includes wheat, rice, coarse grains, soybeans, cotton, and tobacco. 4/ Total includes a small amount of miscellaneous products not elsewhere specified. U.S. coarse grain exports are reduced 4.2 million tons and $300 million from the February estimate to 53.8 million tons valued at $5.2 billion. U.S. corn exports are reduced 4.5 million tons to 47.5 million tons, largely due to greater than previously expected competition from China, Brazil, and Argentina. On the positive side, corn and sorghum shipments to Mexico continue strong. At 3.0 million tons valued at $735 million, the export forecast for rice is lowered 100,000 tons and $30 million. Abundant supplies in nearly all exporting countries, increased exports from Vietnam and Thailand, and stagnate global import demand continue to pressure prices lower and slow U.S. exports from the previous year. The export forecast for U.S. oilseeds and products is increased $400 million from the February estimate to $8.8 billion. Strong foreign demand (especially from China) and abundant U.S. supply led to a 700,000-ton increase in the estimate for U.S. soybean shipments to a record 26.8 million tons. However, the expectation of a continued decline in soybean prices--due to record oilseed crops in Brazil and Argentina and large U.S. corn and soybean crops--leaves soybean export value virtually unchanged at $5.1 billion. With China continuing to import more soybeans and less soybean meal, the forecast Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports: Volume by commodity, 2000-2001 October-March Fiscal Fiscal 2001 Commodity 2000 2001 2000 Forecast Feb. May Million metric tons Wheat 12.859 13.021 27.818 28.7 27.8 Wheat flour 0.489 0.308 0.812 0.8 0.7 Rice 2.038 1.817 3.310 3.1 3.0 Coarse grains 1/ 28.362 26.820 56.535 58.0 53.8 Corn 24.423 22.720 49.371 52.0 47.5 Feeds & fodders 6.440 6.415 13.315 14.1 13.7 Oilseeds and products 23.832 25.917 36.493 35.9 36.8 Soybeans 17.777 20.004 26.058 26.1 26.8 Soybean meal 4.015 3.894 6.651 6.4 6.3 Soybean oil 0.406 0.399 0.624 0.6 0.6 Beef, pork & variety meats 0.935 0.922 1.845 1.8 1.8 Poultry meat 1.477 1.523 2.847 2.9 3.0 Animal fats 0.585 0.559 1.206 1.2 1.1 Tobacco, unmanufactured 0.107 0.100 0.183 0.2 0.2 Cotton & linters 0.835 0.732 1.539 1.6 1.5 Horticultural products 3.814 4.221 7.732 8.3 8.4 Sugar & tropical products 0.633 0.657 1.276 1.4 1.4 Total major bulk products 2/ 61.978 62.494 115.443 117.7 113.1 1/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 2/ Includes wheat, rice, coarse grains, soybeans, cotton, and tobacco. for U.S. meal is reduced to 6.3 million tons. Strong foreign demand for soy flours, isolates, and concentrates and increased rapeseed exports boosts the overall oilseed forecast. The forecast for fiscal 2001 U.S. cotton exports is lowered 100,000 tons and $200 million to 1.5 million tons valued at $2.0 billion. U.S. cotton prices have dropped sharply due to an expected large increase in stocks. Since February, sales have slowed to several markets, including Mexico and Turkey. The slowdown to Mexico is tied to reduced textile activity in the United States, and Turkeys financial problems are slowing trade to that country. The forecast for U.S. exports of livestock, poultry and dairy products is increased $500 million from the February forecast to $12.6 billion, or $800 million above last years sales. This upward revision reflects an improved outlook for bovine hides and poultry meat. U.S. exports of hides and skins are forecast at $1.9 billion for 2001, $400 million higher than the previous forecast and a sharp increase over 2000. Shipments to Korea are recovering and bovine hide prices are strengthening, but most of the export gain is due to the record- setting pace of shipments to the China and Hong Kong markets. Slightly higher prices and strong Russian demand for inexpensive broiler parts raise expected poultry meat exports $100 million to $2.1 billion. The forecast for red meat exports is lowered $100 million to $4.9 billion due to reduced prospects for pork exports. The forecast for U.S. horticultural exports is $11.4 billion. Estimates for fruit and vegetables remain at $3.7 billion and $3.1 billion, respectively. Apple exports are up sharply from the previous year with a recovery in the crop. Grape and stone fruit exports are up, but citrus export value is down slightly due to lower prices. The tree nut forecast is increased $100 million to $1.2 billion, mainly due to higher almond prices and strong shipments. Walnut and pistachio sales are also running ahead of last years pace. Horticultural exports to Canada and especially Mexico continue strong, as do shipments to most key Asian markets, except Japan. Economic Outlook A slowdown in growth is gripping the world economy in 2001. The slowdown began in the United States in 2000 as business investment and stock prices declined. And, weak U.S. demand for imports narrowed the U.S. trade deficit in goods and services slightly in recent months. At the same time, growth in Japan, which has been extremely sluggish and is forecast below 1 percent. The combined effect of slower growth in the United States and Japan, which account for 40 percent of the global economy and have strong trade linkages with the rest of the world, pulls down growth prospects in other parts of the world. Although the European Unions (EU) growth is expected to remain positive, growth has slowed more than expected. Also, continued low commodity prices and higher petroleum prices are helping dampen growth prospects in the developing countries. Developed Countries In Japan, aggressive fiscal and monetary expansion, anemic consumer demand has resulted in historically high unemployment rates and deflation. Recent deterioration of export earnings and a decline in industrial production is exacerbating the near-recessionary economic situation. Downside risks for the European Unions expansion prospects in 2001 increase as Germany, the groups largest economy, recently posted weaker growth and higher inflation. Growth in Germany and France dropped below the 2-percent rate in the first quarter of 2001. Slower growth forecast for 2001 is due, in part, to higher food costs as meat safety requirements limit domestic meat supply. Additionally, the euros low exchange value is discouraging EU demand for imports from outside the region. Exporters in Africa and Eastern Europe are thus having a harder time penetrating the EU market. Developing Countries Continued softness in commodity prices and the bleaker export opportunities in developed markets are reducing the external earnings of developing countries. A few countries, like China and India, are expected to maintain relatively high output rates. However, many countries are struggling against high petroleum costs, especially as exchange rates are kept low to boost trade competitiveness. With the help of borrowed funds from the International Monetary Fund, Turkey and Argentina are in the process of reviving domestic demand. Southeast Asian exporters are likely to suffer the most as imports in the United States and Japan slow. Exchange Rates In spite of declining short-term interest rates in the United States and the Federal Reserves response to the weak economy, the dollar remains high largely due to its current role as a safe haven. In 2001, the U.S. dollars exchange value is already almost 8 percent higher than its 2000 average level. Lower U.S. stock prices and lower interest rates, had been expected to lead to dollar depreciation this year. U.S. exporters face stiff price competition because of continued high dollar value and weaker demand prospects worldwide. Regional Highlights The $500 million added since February to fiscal 2001 U.S. agricultural export forecasts raises projections for China, Mexico, and Southeast Asia. Expected exports to most other regions remain about unchanged from February. But, year-to-year gains in exports still are expected to Canada and Africa as well, although projections to these areas have not been increased from February. Corn exports lead the gains to Mexico this year, rising $116 million and 1.2 million tons already in the first half of the year. Mexico has already allocated its entire 2001 zero-tariff import quota for corn, pushing up U.S. exports in recent months. The Government has not announced what the above-quota tariff will be, but a new law dictates that a tariff must be imposed on corn imports above the North American Free Trade Agreement quota volume. In the year-to-date, exports of feeds and meats to Mexico also are up sharply and exports of sorghum, fresh fruits, soybeans, and many other products show gains. U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico are revised to $7.4 billion in fiscal 2001, 4 percent over last quarters estimate and 17 percent above last year. Forecast exports to Canada are reduced slightly from February to $8 billion, but still show a 6-percent gain year-to-year. Prospective U.S. agricultural exports to other Western Hemisphere countries have been reduced by $300 million since February. Brazil is taking less cotton than had earlier been anticipated. And exports of tobacco, rice, and soybean products to other Latin destinations have slipped. In Asia, Chinas imports of U.S. soybeans and hides and skins have already risen substantially, showing year-to-year gains of $455 million and $115 million in the first half of the year. Much stiffer competition is expected from the recently harvested record Argentine and Brazilian soybean crops, which will be marketed in the second half of this fiscal year. U.S. exports of hides and skins to China, however, show no signs of slowing from the current record pace. Projected exports of $2.3 billion to China are increased $500 million over February and $800 million above 2000. U.S. exports to Southeast Asia of several products show gains in the first half of the year. Thailand is taking more hides and skins, feeds, and oilseeds. Gains in exports to the Philippines reflect more oilseeds, meals, rice, and dairy products. U.S. exports of wheat and soybean meal to Indonesia are up significantly this year, offsetting some loss in exports of rice to the country. However, Japans sluggish economy has led to a slight reduction since February in exports to that market to $9.1 billion. Corn imports from the United States are down and Japan also is taking lower priced cuts of meat, further reducing value. Projected exports to South Korea have been reduced slightly from Februarys estimate to equal last year at $2.6 billion. So far, declines in exports of corn, soybeans, and meats to this market are being partially offset by gains in exports of cotton and hides and skins. A small decrease also is evident in exports to the Middle East, as exports to Turkey fall below last years robust pace. In the year-to- date, tobacco exports to Turkey show the largest drop. But, exports of corn, soybean meal, vegetable oils, and cotton also are down. Table 4--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by region, 2000-2001 October-March Fiscal Fiscal 2001 Region 2000 2001 2000 Forecast Feb. May Billion dollars Asia (excluding Mid East) 10.202 10.910 19.688 20.2 20.8 Japan 4.840 4.680 9.353 9.2 9.1 China 0.780 1.388 1.474 1.8 2.3 Hong Kong 0.638 0.665 1.255 1.3 1.3 Taiwan 1.024 1.002 2.011 2.0 2.0 South Korea 1.307 1.316 2.569 2.7 2.6 Southeast Asia 1.383 1.633 2.602 2.8 3.1 Indonesia 0.348 0.452 0.681 0.8 0.9 Philippines 0.438 0.494 0.866 0.9 1.0 Malaysia 0.142 0.180 0.284 0.3 0.3 Thailand 0.317 0.358 0.492 0.5 0.6 South Asia 0.222 0.221 0.416 0.4 0.4 Western Hemisphere 9.204 9.830 18.159 19.6 19.5 Canada 3.737 3.957 7.520 8.1 8.0 Mexico 3.187 3.761 6.329 7.1 7.4 Brazil 0.140 0.110 0.253 0.3 0.2 Venezuela 0.204 0.179 0.404 0.4 0.4 Other Latin America 1.937 1.822 3.653 3.7 3.5 Western Europe 4.054 4.068 6.712 6.6 6.6 European Union 3.904 3.787 6.373 6.2 6.2 Central and Eastern Europe 0.089 0.108 0.167 0.2 0.2 New Independent States 1/ 0.587 0.440 0.934 0.8 0.8 Russia 0.410 0.338 0.671 0.6 0.6 Middle East 1.228 1.171 2.363 2.4 2.3 Turkey 0.380 0.277 0.701 0.7 0.6 Saudi Arabia 0.242 0.244 0.482 0.5 0.5 Africa 1.121 1.183 2.272 2.5 2.5 North Africa 0.780 0.837 1.565 1.7 1.7 Egypt 0.552 0.543 1.094 1.0 1.1 Sub-Saharan Africa 0.341 0.346 0.707 0.8 0.8 Oceania 0.252 0.249 0.490 0.5 0.5 Transshipments 2/ 0.000 0.183 0.123 0.2 0.3 Total 2/ 26.736 28.144 50.905 53.0 53.5 Total may not add due to rounding. 1/ New Independent States (NIS) are the former Soviet Union, including the Baltic Republics. 2/ Transshipments through Canada are distributed by country prior to 2000, but are included only in the total for 2000 and 2001. U.S. Agricultural Export Programs Export Subsidy Programs As of May 29, 2001, approximately 55,450 metric tons were committed for nonfat dry milk exports under the Dairy Export Incentive Program, with a total bonus value of $6.7 million. As of the same date, under the Export Enhancement program, there were approximately 9,300 metric tons of poultry committed, with a total bonus value of nearly $5.8 million. CCC Export Credit Guarantee Programs Country allocations under the fiscal year 2001 export credit guarantee programs--GSM-102, GSM-103, the Supplier Credit Guarantee Program (SCGP), and the Facility Guarantee Program (FGP)--totaled about $5.1 billion as of May 18, 2001. Sales approvals of about $1.9 billion were 9 percent lower than fiscal year 2000 approvals at the same part of the year. Since October 2001, credit guarantees approvals were approximately $1.7 billion for GSM-102, $25.7 million for GSM-103, and $121.5 million for SCGP. U.S. Food Aid Programs As of May 31, allocations for commodities under the Title I and Food for Progress programs total $141 million for fiscal year 2001--less than half of last years level. Eight countries--El Salvador, Eritrea, Guatemala, Indonesia, Peru, Philippines, Sri Lanka, and Uzbekistan-- will receive commodities valued at $103 million under Title I. Nine countries--Bosnia-Herzegovina, Ecuador, Guyana, Mozambique, Albania, Burkina, Russia, Togo, and Turkmenistan--are expected to receive $38 million of commodities under the Title I funded Food for Progress program. Commodity assistance under these programs is expected to total 822,000 tons, 46 percent of which will be wheat. To date, agreements have been signed with only one country--Uzbekistan. This agreement provides $20 million for sales of nearly 100,000 tons of soybeans and rice. Additionally, $486 million is being offered under the Section 416(b) program, $148 million in the global Food for Education program, and $61 million in other Food for Progress programs. Appropriations for the Title II program are estimated at $837 million? for fiscal 2001, up roughly 5 percent from last year. Commodity allocations are expected to total more than 1.7 million tons, of which more than half will go to Sub-Saharan Africa. Ethiopia is expected to be by far the largest single recipient (in dollar terms) under this program, followed by India and Bangladesh. Import Highlights The fiscal 2001 forecast for U.S. agricultural imports is $39 billion, $1 billion less than the February estimate, and essentially equal to fiscal 2000s total import value. Continued weak commodity prices, especially of tropical products, are largely responsible for the forecasts downward adjustment. Coffee accounts for much of the reduction since February. And, slight adjustments from February also are made in animal products, horticulture, and some other products. Additionally, the dollars continued strength is offset by weaker economic growth and the slowed pace of U.S. economic activity. These factors continue to restrain U.S. import demand. The reduced outlook for U.S. imports is mainly attributed to the sharp downturn in import value and volume of coffee in the first 6 months of fiscal 2001. The price of coffee plummeted to 60 cents per pound from already depressed levels, which averaged 80 cents per pound in 2000. This contrasts to $1.67 per pound in 1997. Prices of other tropical imports are either lower or close to their recent low levels. Cocoa prices over the past year are still 35 percent below 1996 levels despite a recent upward trend. And rubber prices mimic coffee prices, hardly budging since 1998. In addition, the under 1-percent rate of U.S. industrial production in the first quarter of 2001, an indicator of domestic demand, contributed to the reduced volume in imports of tropical products. And, reduced volume pulled tropical product import values even lower in the October-March period. The import forecast for fiscal 2001 for coffee alone drops $1 billion from Februarys figure. Horticulture imports are expected to grow by 3.7 percent from $15.8 billion in fiscal 2000 to $16.4 billion this year. This estimate is only marginally smaller than Februarys $16.5 billion projection. Among the horticultural products, fruits and fruit juices are forecast to remain unchanged from last years $4.5 billion value. However, this figure is a 6-percent downward correction from Februarys higher forecast. Behind this adjustment are drops in October-March import volume of fruit juices (down 16 percent) and of bananas (down 6 percent). In addition, low prices pulled year-to-date import value of tree nuts down despite a 13-percent gain in volume. But, larger imports of wine and malt beverages and vegetables from October through March were enough to boost these import projections and offset the declines in other horticultural imports. An 8-percent year-to-year boost is projected for imported animals and animal products--from $8.1 billion in fiscal 2000 to $8.8 billion in 2001, only slightly bigger than the $8.7 billion forecast in February. Underlying this year-over-year growth are significantly larger imports of red meats and farm animals, as well as higher beef prices. The strength of U.S. import demand for red meats, particularly beef from Australia and Canada, and pork from Canada, derives from the dollars persistently high purchasing power. Cattle and swine imports from Canada also benefit from the U.S. dollars strength against the Canadian dollar. While cane and beet sugar imports are growing enough to raise 2001 value over 2000, oilseed product imports are projected to decline somewhat from the fiscal 2000 value, despite the year-to-date increase in imports of coconut oil and rapeseed meal. The increase in coconut oil imports reflects the lagged effects of improved rainfall in the Philippines, which triggered a sharp price drop and substantial stock building in the United States. Expansion in rapeseed meal imports is due to more competitive prices in relation to other meals. But, rapeseed meal is relatively low in price, contributing to lower import value. The reduction in oilseed and product value also reflects lower unit values resulting from lower vegetable oil prices. Table 5--U.S. agricultural imports: Value by commodity, 2000-2001 October-March Fiscal Fiscal 2001 Commodity 2000 2001 2000 Forecast Feb. May Billion dollars Animals and products 4.046 4.439 8.143 8.7 8.8 Live animals, except poultry 0.968 1.202 1.737 2.0 2.1 Red meats and products 1.746 1.910 3.722 3.9 4.1 Dairy products 0.819 0.812 1.635 1.7 1.6 Grains and feeds 1.543 1.608 3.059 3.2 3.2 Grains 0.332 0.348 0.638 0.7 0.7 Grain products and feeds 1.211 1.260 2.421 2.5 2.5 Horticulture products 1/ 8.080 8.387 15.820 16.5 16.4 Fruits & preps., and juices 2.364 2.368 4.537 4.8 4.5 Bananas 0.539 0.551 1.128 1.1 1.2 Nuts and preparations 0.409 0.360 0.792 0.8 0.7 Vegetables and preparations 2.493 2.753 4.657 4.9 5.1 Wine and malt beverages 2.045 2.153 4.345 4.5 4.6 Nursery and cut flowers 0.597 0.596 1.165 1.2 1.2 Sugar and related products 0.720 0.775 1.541 1.7 1.7 Tobacco, unmanufactured 0.313 0.327 0.651 0.6 0.7 Oilseeds and products 0.916 0.838 1.873 1.8 1.8 Coffee and products 1.545 0.904 2.905 2.8 1.8 Cocoa and products 0.819 0.711 1.466 1.4 1.4 Rubber and allied gums 0.418 0.358 0.841 0.9 0.8 Other products 2/ 1.278 1.249 2.624 2.6 2.6 Total agricultural imports 3/ 19.677 19.597 38.923 40.0 39.0 1/ Includes essential oils. 2/ Includes tea, spices, crude drugs, other beverages, and seeds. 3/ Total includes a small amount of miscellaneous products not elsewhere specified. Imports by geographic distribution are relatively unchanged from the February outlook. The largest downward adjustment is expected to come from countries whose exports have suffered low prices. Among these are Brazil (because of coffee prices), Chile (fruits), Central American countries (bananas), Southeast Asia (tropical oils), and India (cashew nuts). Of the $1 billion decline in the projected total import value for fiscal 2001, half is occurring in South and Central America, the major source of U.S. coffee. Table 6--U.S. agricultural imports: Volume by commodity, 2000-2001 October-March Fiscal Fiscal 2001 Commodity 2000 2001 2000 Forecast Feb. May Million metric tons Fruit juices 1/ 16.626 13.997 32.199 30.0 27.1 Wine and malt beverages 11.949 13.384 27.414 30.0 30.7 Red meats 0.741 0.764 1.555 1.6 1.6 Cheese and casein 0.160 0.146 0.315 0.3 0.3 Grains and feeds 2.909 3.110 5.790 6.0 6.2 Grains 2.276 2.469 4.532 4.8 4.9 Feeds and fodders 0.633 0.641 1.258 1.2 1.3 Fruits and preparations 4.159 4.027 8.115 8.0 7.9 Bananas 2.161 2.028 4.396 4.3 4.1 Nuts and preparations 0.120 0.135 0.251 0.3 0.3 Vegetables, fresh & frozen 2.230 2.326 3.755 3.8 3.9 Cane and beet sugar 0.550 0.675 1.379 1.7 1.7 Tobacco, unmanufactured 0.108 0.104 0.220 0.2 0.2 Oilseeds and products 1.844 1.956 4.069 4.3 4.1 Coffee and products 0.722 0.599 1.411 1.3 1.2 Cocoa and products 0.591 0.486 1.046 1.0 0.9 Rubber and allied gums 0.646 0.545 1.249 1.2 1.1 1/ Liquid imports are measured in hectoliters. All other imports exclude items measured in hectoliters, pieces, dozens, or numbers and include only items measured in metric tons. Table 7--U.S. agricultural imports: Value by region, 2000-2001 October-March Fiscal Fiscal 2001 Region 2000 2001 2000 Forecast Feb. May Billion dollars Western Hemisphere 10.597 10.747 20.898 21.8 21.3 Canada 4.129 4.454 8.526 9.1 9.2 Mexico 2.590 2.792 4.991 5.4 5.4 Brazil 0.706 0.488 1.250 1.2 0.9 Colombia 0.611 0.526 1.163 1.0 1.0 Chile 0.607 0.655 0.974 1.3 1.1 Other South America 0.804 0.733 1.552 1.3 1.4 Central America 1.029 0.963 2.124 2.2 2.0 Costa Rica 0.381 0.400 0.798 0.9 0.8 Caribbean 0.122 0.135 0.318 0.4 0.4 Western Europe 4.244 4.147 8.296 8.2 8.1 European Union 4.149 4.039 8.104 8.0 7.9 Eastern Europe 0.130 0.141 0.228 0.2 0.2 New Independent States 1/ 0.041 0.046 0.083 0.1 0.1 Asia, less Middle East 2.700 2.404 5.392 5.3 4.8 China 0.399 0.381 0.814 0.8 0.8 Southeast Asia 1.459 1.284 2.886 2.8 2.5 Indonesia 0.506 0.433 1.002 1.0 0.9 Thailand 0.359 0.362 0.762 0.8 0.8 South Asia 0.467 0.368 0.933 0.9 0.7 India 0.432 0.340 0.867 0.8 0.7 Oceania 1.234 1.419 2.665 3.1 3.1 Australia 0.695 0.840 1.516 1.8 1.8 New Zealand 0.509 0.558 1.106 1.3 1.3 Africa 0.463 0.425 0.882 0.9 0.8 Ivory Coast 0.209 0.144 0.291 0.2 0.2 Middle East 0.268 0.268 0.477 0.4 0.5 Turkey 0.178 0.155 0.311 0.3 0.3 TOTAL 19.677 19.597 38.923 40.0 39.0 1/ New Independent States (NIS) are the former Soviet Union, including the Baltic Republics. END_OF_FILE