OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE-Summary June 1, 2001 June 2001, ERS-AES-30 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, D.C. 20036-5831. The complete text of the report will be available electronically about 1 week following this summary release ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Forecast 2001 U.S. Agricultural Exports Raised $500 Million; Imports Dropped $1 Billion Projected fiscal 2001 U.S. agricultural exports are increased to $53.5 billion, $500 million above the February forecast and $2.6 billion over fiscal 2000. The import forecast is reduced to $39 billion, $1 billion less than in February and virtually unchanged from 2000. These changes boost the expected agricultural export surplus to $14.5 billion, the largest in 3 years. High-value products (HVP) account for almost all of the projected 2001 export growth. Estimated at $35.7 billion, 2001 HVP exports are up $1 billion from February and nearly $2.6 billion over 2000. Hides and skins lead HVP gains, as exports are increased $400 million from February and from 2000. Since February, exports of other HVPs--poultry meat and tree nuts--as well as soybeans, a bulk commodity, also are projected slightly larger, with most of the gain in volume. Much of the increase in shipments of both hides and soybeans is expected to go to China, so forecast exports to China also are raised from February. Partially offsetting these gains are expectations for weaker export volumes than anticipated in February of corn, wheat, rice, and cotton. For imports, continued weak coffee prices result in a $1-billion downward adjustment in the forecast. Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1996-2001 Year ending September 30 Item19961997199819992000Fiscal 2001 Feb.May Billion dollars Exports59.957.453.749.250.953.053.5 Imports32.535.736.837.338.940.039.0 Balance27.421.716.911.912.013.014.5 This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the May 10, 2001, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by commodity, 2000-2001 October-MarchFiscal Fiscal 2001 Commodity 2000 2001 2000 Forecast Feb.May Billion dollars Grains and feeds 1/ 7.009 7.06113.88614.514.2 Wheat & flour 1.662 1.7243.523 3.8 3.8 Rice 0.588 0.4530.908 0.8 0.7 Coarse grains 2/ 2.668 2.5785.281 5.5 5.2 Corn 2.294 2.1544.602 4.9 4.5 Feeds and fodders 1.216 1.3922.479 2.7 2.8 Oilseeds and products 5.314 5.8528.546 8.4 8.8 Soybeans 3.412 3.8175.074 5.0 5.1 Soybean meal 0.728 0.7991.226 1.2 1.2 Soybean oil 0.181 0.1430.279 0.2 0.2 Livestock products 4.372 4.5878.596 8.8 9.2 Beef, pork & variety meats 2.562 2.3605.035 5.0 4.9 Hides & skins, incl. furs 0.643 0.9261.476 1.5 1.9 Poultry & products 1.160 1.1912.260 2.3 2.4 Poultry meat 1.009 1.0341.962 2.0 2.1 Dairy products 0.493 0.5310.951 1.0 1.0 Tobacco, unmanufactured 0.720 0.6441.245 1.2 1.1 Cotton and linters 0.948 0.9861.833 2.2 2.0 Seeds 0.505 0.4480.789 0.8 0.8 Horticultural products 5.158 5.596 10.53711.311.4 Fruits & preparations 1.540 1.6973.361 3.7 3.7 Vegetables & preparations 1.464 1.5552.988 3.1 3.1 Tree nuts & preparations 0.541 0.6680.987 1.1 1.2 Sugar & tropical products 1.055 1.2482.260 2.4 2.6 Major bulk products 3/ 9.79810.002 17.76418.317.8 Total 4/ 26.73628.144 50.90553.053.5 1/ Includes pulses and processed grain products. 2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 3/ Includes wheat, rice, coarse grains, soybeans, cotton, and tobacco. 4/ Total includes a small amount of miscellaneous products not elsewhere specified. Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports: Volume by commodity, 2000-2001 October-MarchFiscalFiscal 2001 Commodity 200020012000 Forecast Feb.May Million metric tons Wheat 12.85913.02127.81828.727.8 Wheat flour 0.4890.308 0.812 0.8 0.7 Rice 2.0381.817 3.310 3.1 3.0 Coarse grains 1/ 28.362 26.82056.53558.053.8 Corn 24.423 22.72049.37152.047.5 Feeds & fodders 6.4406.41513.31514.113.7 Oilseeds and products 23.832 25.91736.49335.936.8 Soybeans 17.777 20.00426.05826.126.8 Soybean meal 4.0153.894 6.651 6.4 6.3 Soybean oil 0.4060.399 0.624 0.6 0.6 Beef, pork & variety meats 0.9350.922 1.845 1.8 1.8 Poultry meat 1.4771.523 2.847 2.9 3.0 Animal fats 0.5850.559 1.206 1.2 1.1 Tobacco, unmanufactured 0.1070.100 0.183 0.2 0.2 Cotton & linters 0.8350.732 1.539 1.6 1.5 Horticultural products 3.8144.221 7.732 8.3 8.4 Sugar & tropical products 0.6330.657 1.276 1.4 1.4 Total major bulk products 2/ 61.978 62.494 115.443 117.7 113.1 1/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 2/ Includes wheat, rice, coarse grains, soybeans, cotton, and tobacco. Table 4--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by region, 2000-2001 October-MarchFiscalFiscal 2001 Region 200020012000Forecast Feb. May Billion dollars Asia (excluding Mid East)10.20210.91019.68820.220.8 Japan 4.840 4.680 9.353 9.2 9.1 China 0.780 1.388 1.474 1.8 2.3 Hong Kong 0.638 0.665 1.255 1.3 1.3 Taiwan 1.024 1.002 2.011 2.0 2.0 South Korea 1.307 1.316 2.569 2.7 2.6 Southeast Asia 1.383 1.633 2.602 2.8 3.1 Indonesia 0.348 0.452 0.681 0.8 0.9 Philippines 0.438 0.494 0.866 0.9 1.0 Malaysia 0.142 0.180 0.284 0.3 0.3 Thailand 0.317 0.358 0.492 0.5 0.6 South Asia 0.222 0.221 0.416 0.4 0.4 Western Hemisphere 9.204 9.83018.15919.619.5 Canada 3.737 3.957 7.520 8.1 8.0 Mexico 3.187 3.761 6.329 7.1 7.4 Brazil 0.140 0.110 0.253 0.3 0.2 Venezuela 0.204 0.179 0.404 0.4 0.4 Other Latin America 1.937 1.822 3.653 3.7 3.5 Western Europe 4.054 4.068 6.712 6.6 6.6 European Union 3.904 3.787 6.373 6.2 6.2 Central and Eastern Europe 0.089 0.108 0.167 0.2 0.2 New Independent States 1/ 0.587 0.440 0.934 0.8 0.8 Russia 0.410 0.338 0.671 0.6 0.6 Middle East 1.228 1.171 2.363 2.4 2.3 Turkey 0.380 0.277 0.701 0.7 0.6 Saudi Arabia 0.242 0.244 0.482 0.5 0.5 Africa 1.121 1.183 2.272 2.5 2.5 North Africa 0.780 0.837 1.565 1.7 1.7 Egypt 0.552 0.543 1.094 1.0 1.1 Sub-Saharan Africa 0.341 0.346 0.707 0.8 0.8 Oceania 0.252 0.249 0.490 0.5 0.5 Transshipments 2/ 0.000 0.183 0.123 0.2 0.3 Total 2/ 26.73628.14450.90553.053.5 Total may not add due to rounding. 1/ New Independent States (NIS) are the former Soviet Union, including the Baltic Republics. 2/ Transshipments through Canada are distributed by country prior to 2000, but are included only in the total for 2000 and 2001. END_OF_FILE