OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE-Summary                   November 30, 2001
December 2001, ERS-AES-32
               Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of 
Agriculture, Washington, D.C. 20036-5831. The complete text of the report will 
be available electronically about 1 week following this summary release
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Carol Whitton, ERS coordinator 
Ernest Carter, FAS coordinator


Fiscal 2002 U.S. Agricultural Export Forecast Reduced
$2.5 Billion to $54.5 Billion; Still Highest Since 1997 


At $54.5 billion, forecast fiscal 2002 U.S. agricultural exports drop $2.5 
billion from the August projection.  Larger global supplies and slowing demand 
have reduced expected prices and the still strong U.S. dollar restricts 
U.S. export competitiveness. Except for poultry, the value forecast is reduced 
for all commodities.  Export volume is lowered for soybeans, meats, and 
horticultural products, offsetting slight gains in corn and cotton volume.  
Nevertheless, year-to-year, the forecast value of grain, poultry, and 
horticultural exports still exceeds 2001, largely due to increased volume.  
Exports to the major U.S. markets in Asia and the Western Hemisphere are 
projected above 2001, despite slower economic growth.

U.S. agricultural imports remain at $39 billion, unchanged from 2001 and August 
projections.  The expected 2002 export surplus drops $2.5 billion from the 
earlier forecast to $15.5 billion, but remains $1.6 billion above 2001.

END_OF_FILE