COTTON AND WOOL YEARBOOK--SUMMARY November 27, 2001 November 2001, ERS-CWS-2001 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. The complete text of COTTON AND WOOL Yearbook will be available within 3-4 weeks following this summary release --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2001 Cotton and Wool Situation and Outlook Yearbook Record World Cotton Crop, Stagnant Consumption in 2001/02 U.S. cotton production in 2001 is forecast at a record 20.2 million bales, 3 million bales or 17 percent above last season's cotton crop. This season's output is based on larger area and a higher national yield. U.S. cotton planted area jumped almost 700,000 acres from 2000 to 16.2 million this season, the second largest area planted to cotton in four decades. While drought conditions this season raised abandonment and limited production in parts of the Southwest, conditions in other parts of the Cotton Belt were above average. Nationally, abandonment reached 13 percent this year, compared with 16 percent in 2000. Harvested cotton area is estimated at 14.1 million acres, 1 million above last season and the highest since 1995. The national yield is projected at 685 pounds per harvested acre, well above last season and the highest in 5 years. U.S. cotton exports in 2001/02 (August/July marketing year) are projected to jump dramatically, rising nearly 40 percent from last season to 9.4 million bales. Large U.S. supplies of exportable cotton coupled with the strong sales and shipments to date are expected to push exports to match the recent high achieved in 1994/95. As of early November, U.S. cotton export commitments totaled 7.7 million bales, or 82 percent of the shipment target. With U.S. exports expanding and prospects for world trade rising modestly in 2001/02, the U.S. share of global trade is expected to reach 33 percent, well above last seasons 26 percent and near the 1994/95 level. In contrast, U.S. cotton mill consumption is forecast to reach only 8.1 million bales in 2001/02, 9 percent or nearly 800,000 bales below last season. The continued growth of U.S. cotton textile and apparel imports, along with the slowdown in the U.S. economy, has kept tremendous pressure on the U.S. spinning industry and has forced major restructuring in the U.S. textile and apparel industry over the last several years. U.S. cotton stocks at the beginning of 2001/02 were estimated at 6 million bales. With the record crop forecast this season, total U.S. cotton supply in 2001/02 is projected at 26.2 million bales or 24 percent above a year ago. Meanwhile, U.S. cotton demand is forecast to expand to 17.5 million bales, nearly 2 million above 2000/01. However, based on these supply and demand estimates, U.S. ending stocks for 2001/02 are estimated to climb significantly to 8.7 million bales, the highest since 1985/86. As a result, the U.S. stocks-to-use ratio is expected to climb to 50 percent in 2001/02. World cotton consumption in 2001/02 is forecast at 91.6 million bales, about 200,000 bales below a year earlier as world economic growth drops to its slowest in nearly a decade. However, foreign mill use is expected to rise to its third consecutive record-high while the United States is forecast to undergo the largest decline in mill use of any country. The largest gains are expected in Turkey, Uzbekistan, Pakistan, and Thailand. In contrast with stagnant consumption, world cotton production in 2001/02 is forecast at a record 96.9 million bales, 8.5 million bales above last season. Production is estimated higher across much of the Northern Hemisphere, with by far the largest increases expected in China (3.2 million bales higher) and the United States (3 million). Increased plantings and improved weather are also expected to lead to substantially larger crops in India, Central Asia, and West Africas Franc Zone. Foreign production is forecast to be its second highest ever, 76.7 million bales, with only a few countries, particularly Brazil and Australia, expected to harvest lower crops than the year before. World cotton exports are expected to increase 7 percent in 2001/02, to 28.1 million bales, their highest since 1994/95. However, foreign exports are expected to fall 5 percent to their lowest since 1983/84, 18.7 million bales. Australias exports are expected to be almost 800,000 bales lower than the year before in 2001/02, and smaller declines are expected from Central Asia and South America. With rising world production and stagnant consumption, stocks are projected to rise this season to 44.4 million bales, their highest in 3 years. The 5.5-million-bale stock increase is expected to be split evenly between the United States and the rest of the world, with India accounting for the largest increase outside the United States. Little change is foreseen in Chinas ending stocks in 2001/02, in sharp contrast to the last 2 years when stocks there fell by 6.2 million bales in 1999/2000 and by 3.4 million in 2000/01. The 2001 Cotton and Wool Situation and Outlook Yearbook contains two special articles, titled Regional Shifts in China's Cotton Production and Use and The Agreement on Textiles and Clothing: Impact on U.S. Cotton. END_OF_FILE