HDR1011800200500912951600 COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK September 12, 1995 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK is published monthly (except January) by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. CWS--0995. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton Crop Revised Down 7 Percent Although 7 percent below August indications, the 1995 U.S. cotton crop is still forecast at a record 20.3 million bales, up 3 percent from 1994's record. This production estimate was below the range of industry forecasts which averaged 21.1 million bales. Upland production is estimated at 19.9 million bales, declining 1.6 million from a month earlier. Upland harvested acreage, at 15.6 million acres, is up 5,000 acres from last month and up 19 percent from last year. The national upland cotton yield declined 48 pounds from the August estimate and is now expected to average 612 pounds per harvested acre. Reduced yields in the Delta and Southeastern States account for most of the decline. This season's ginnings totaled 427,000 running bales prior to September 1, compared with 679,950 ginned by the same date last year and 434,900 in 1993. In the Delta, production is estimated at 2 million bales, down 940,000 from the August forecast. The largest decline occurred in Mississippi where the production potential dropped 480,000 bales due to yield loss. The average yield estimate in Mississippi was reduced 158 pounds per harvested acre to 661 pounds. Similarly, lower yields in Louisiana and Arkansas reduced production prospects 200,000 and 170,000 bales, respectively. Cotton in the Delta States was rated mostly in fair to good condition. Tennessee shows the best crop condition in the region, with 63 percent in good to excellent condition in early September. Producers in the region continued applying insect treatments. Mississippi rated 27 percent of their crop in very poor to poor condition, and Arkansas and Louisiana rated 14 percent and 20 percent of the cotton as very poor to poor. All States' boll opening equalled or exceeded the 5-year pace, but Arkansas was 65 percent open, compared with an average of 35, and Mississippi, at 83 percent open, was 20 percent ahead of normal. Data from objective yield plots show Arkansas with the lowest number of large bolls since 1985, and preliminary boll weights were also the lowest for this 10 year period. Louisiana's large boll counts and weights ranked ninth in the past 10 years, and Mississippi's large bolls were the third lowest and weights were ninth lowest during this same time period. In the Southeast, yield and production losses occurred in most States, with significant losses in Georgia and North Carolina. The region is now expected to harvest 4.3 million bales, compared with 4.6 million in August. Georgia production was revised down 150,000 bales to 1.95 million, and North Carolina is expected to produce 870,000 bales, 13 percent below last month's estimate. Spring rains allowed the Southeastern crop to germinate well, but August's high temperatures and sparse rainfall adversely affected the crop. Tropical storm Jerry moved across the eastern third of Georgia and into the Carolinas, offering some relief, but fruit shedding and insects caused crop potential to decline. This weather also advanced maturity of the Georgia crop and in early September, boll opening was 73 percent, over 50 percent above the 5-year average. Forty-nine percent of Alabama's cotton and 7 percent of Georgia's was in very poor to poor condition. Thirty-one percent of Georgia's crop was rated in good condition, and 9 percent of Alabama's was in good condition. North Carolina reported 39 percent of their crop as good to excellent. Fifty- six percent of the South Carolina crop was in good condition, with none reported excellent in early September. The American-Pima production forecast, at 368,000 bales, is up 9 percent from 1994's output, and up 10,000 bales from August. California was the only State with a change in production from the August forecast, and planted and harvested acres were revised upward by 5,000. U.S. yield is indicated at 918 pounds per harvested acre, down 56 pounds from last year. Arizona's crop was subject to insect pressure during the month and above normal temperatures. In California, conditions were mainly good to excellent, as hot August weather aided crop development. Foreign Production, Consumption, and Trade Foreign 1995/96 production was cut this month, and foreign consumption raised, boosting U.S. export prospects slightly despite a tightening in prospective U.S. supplies. The forecast for U.S. exports was raised 100,000 bales to 7.8 million, giving the United States an expected 28 percent share of world trade, compared with 33 percent in 1994/95. However, 1994/95 U.S. exports were adjusted down 100,000 bales to 9.5 million. The forecast for foreign production in 1995/96 was cut 500,000 bales to 68.5 million, largely because of China. China's crop fell 500,000 bales this month to 19 million as evidence mounted that planted area failed to reach earlier expectations and cool August weather trimmed yield prospects. China's government sought to increase cotton production this year, raising procurement prices from about 11,000 yuan/ton to 14,000 yuan/ton. However, competing crop prices have risen even more strongly and the bollworm has reportedly been a bigger problem this year than in 1994/95. Production is expected to fall nearly 1 million bales this year in China. Australia's production forecast was reduced as well this month as rainfall continues to lag normal levels. Australian 1995/96 production is now forecast to be unchanged from 1994/95 at 1.45 million bales as irrigation supplies remain tight from prolonged drought. Foreign consumption in 1995/96 is forecast 300,000 bales higher this month and is expected to reach 75.3 million. In addition, 1994/95 was revised upward 300,000 bales as well. Turkey accounted for most of the adjustment, as favorable exchange rates helped accelerate Turkey's export-oriented textile industry. Partially offsetting consumption adjustments were made to Malaysia and Singapore in both the forecasts and for several years of historical data. A larger proportion of Singapore's cotton imports than earlier believed are reexported to Malaysia for processing rather than consumed in Singapore. Reportedly, Singapore has only one mill remaining in operation. Foreign exports in 1995/96 were revised down as production prospects weakened for Australia and China, and as prospects for repealing Turkey's prohibitive export tax dimmed. Foreign imports were raised this month, with China accounting for most of the adjustment--China's expected imports were raised 100,000 bales to 2.7 million bales. Net imports by China in 1995/96 are forecast at 2.4 million bales, compared with 3.8 million in 1994/95. U.S. Mill Consumption and Stocks U.S. cotton mill consumption data for 1994/95 will be finalized later this month, however, preliminary data indicate that mills used 11.2 million bales of cotton last season, 7 percent above 1993/94. In addition, cotton's share of fiber use on the cotton system averaged 77 percent, 1 percentage point above 1993/94 and the highest since the 1966 season. Based on the preliminary July data, daily average cotton consumption declined for the fifth consecutive month to 38,900 480-pound bales. Consumption totaled only 740,000 bales, well below the 909,000 bales posted in June. Similarly, manmade fiber usage fell in July to 105 million pounds, compared with 137 million in June. July 1995 manmade use was also below a year ago. For the season, preliminary mill use totaled 1.6 billion pounds, slightly above 1993/94. For 1995/96, U.S. cotton mill use is projected to rise to 11.5 million bales, approximately 3 percent above last season. Although below the average annual increase of the past several seasons, demand for U.S. cotton is expected to rise for the fifth consecutive year. Leading the way is the anticipated increase in denim demand by consumers. Demand for other apparel products, as well as home furnishings, is also expected to remain strong. With a slight upward revision in U.S. beginning stocks and the decline in the crop forecast, 1995/96 ending stocks fell nearly 30 percent from August. Total supply this season is estimated at 22.9 million bales, slightly below 1994/95. However, total use is currently forecast at 19.3 million, 1.4 million below a year ago. Thus, ending stocks this season are forecast to rise only 40 percent from beginning levels instead of more than doubling as forecast a month earlier. Cotton Prices Mixed The average price received by upland producers through mid-August was 76.4 cents per pound, down from a revised July price of 86.6 cents. In August 1994, the average price equaled 65.5 cents. Similarly, the upland spot price for base quality cotton fell for the second month in a row to 85.9 cents per pound. Meanwhile, the ELS spot price remained unchanged during August at about $1.37 per pound. With the higher prices experienced earlier in 1995, producers have contracted a large share of their crop this season. As of September 1, 40 percent of the acreage had been contracted, compared with 32 percent in 1994 and 8 percent in 1993. By region, the West contracted 60 percent; the Southeast, 46 percent; the Delta, 44 percent; and the Southwest, 28 percent. These percentages are above a year ago with the exception of the Southeast. Mill-delivered upland prices also declined for the second consecutive month. In August, these prices averaged 89.7 cents per pound and fell below those of polyester for the first time since November 1994. A year ago, upland mill prices averaged 75.5 cents in August. While cotton prices have decreased, manmade fiber prices remained unchanged. Polyester staple prices averaged 92 cents per pound, while rayon prices averaged $1.25. During August 1994, these fiber prices were 76 cents and $1.02 per pound, respectively. With mill- delivered cotton prices falling below those for polyester, cotton use will likely benefit from the very competitive situation it now enjoys. Northern Europe cotton prices, on the other hand, have risen slightly this season. During August, the A Index averaged 85.4 cents per pound, but for the week ending September 7, the A Index averaged 88.9 cents. The Memphis Territory quote moved out of the Index calculation on September 4, and was replaced by Mexico. Seven of the 14 styles are currently being quoted with the Central Asian quote continuing as the cheapest. The B Index followed a similar pattern; however, only 3 of the 8 styles are quoted at this time. During August, the B Index averaged 82.1 cents per pound, but had moved above 86 cents during the first week of September. The Orleans/Texas quote is currently the highest priced offering, with Pakistan the lowest. In addition, the adjusted world price (AWP) continues to inch higher. Since August 10, the AWP has risen each week and for the week of September 8-14, the AWP climbed to 74.28 cents per pound, the highest since early July. Textile Imports Rise Sharply in June Textile imports in June reached 710 million pounds (raw-fiber equivalent), an increase of 11 percent from May. Increased imports of apparel and house furnishings more than offset small declines in yarn, thread, and fabric and floor coverings. About 60 percent of June's import rise came from cotton textiles, which rose 11 percent (39 million pounds) to 382 million pounds. Compared with June 1994, cotton and total textile imports were 10 percent and 7 percent higher, respectively. Although textile imports were up sharply in June, exports rose only slightly. June textile exports were 276 million pounds, up 2 percent from May, but 16 percent higher than June 1994. Increases in apparel shipments more than offset declines in all other end-use categories. However, cotton textile exports, at 122 million pounds, were almost 5 percent above May and 26 percent above year-ago shipments. Overall, the total textile trade deficit for the first 6 months of 1995 reached 2.3 billion pounds, 12 percent higher than the same period in 1994. Similarly, the cotton textile trade deficit, at 1.3 billion pounds, was 10 percent higher than the first 6 months of 1994. However, cotton's share of the total deficit continued to decline in 1995 to 58.6 percent, the lowest in several years. Larger exports of cotton textiles and apparel will likely continue to support domestic mill consumption and limit increases in the overall textile trade deficit during 1995. The next Cotton and Wool Outlook will be released on October 11, 1995. For further information, contact Leslie Meyer at (202) 501-8528 (U.S. Cotton), Robert Skinner at (202) 219-0767 (U.S. Cotton), John Lawler at (202) 501-7162 (Wool), or Steve MacDonald at (202) 219-1179 (Foreign Cotton). U.S. COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1995/96 ---------------------------- Item 1994/95 Jul Aug Sep ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Upland: Million acres Planted 13.55 16.42 16.46 16.47 Program 11.62 11.36 11.36 11.36 Harvested 13.16 15.30 15.61 15.62 Pounds Yield/harvested acre 705 661 660 612 Million 480-lb. bales Beginning stocks 3.30 2.20 2.42 2.57 Production 19.32 21.11 21.45 19.90 Total supply 1/ 22.64 23.33 23.87 22.48 Mill use 11.09 11.32 11.42 11.42 Exports 9.08 7.19 7.42 7.49 Total use 20.17 18.50 18.84 18.91 Ending stocks 2.57 4.96 5.17 3.66 Percent Stocks-to-use ratio 12.8 26.8 27.5 19.3 Extra-long staple: 1,000 acres Planted 169 189 190 195 Program 84 32 32 32 Harvested 166 187 188 193 Pounds Yield/harvested acre 974 1,000 916 918 1,000 480-lb. bales Beginning stocks 227 55 34 62 Production 338 390 358 368 Total supply 1/ 568 450 402 440 Mill use 102 85 85 85 Exports 424 315 280 310 Total use 526 400 365 395 Ending stocks 62 40 27 45 Percent Stocks-to-use ratio 11.8 10.0 7.4 11.4 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA estimates. 1/ Includes imports. WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1995/96 ---------------------------- Item 1994/95 Jul Aug Sep ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Supply: Million 480-lb. bales Beginning stocks World 27.19 29.45 29.84 29.68 Foreign 23.66 27.20 27.39 27.05 Production World 85.32 90.79 90.83 88.76 Foreign 65.66 69.29 69.01 68.49 Imports World 30.62 27.73 27.85 28.00 Foreign 30.60 27.70 27.83 27.99 Use: Mill use World 84.16 86.27 86.45 86.77 Foreign 72.96 74.87 74.95 75.27 Exports World 29.16 27.72 27.97 27.89 Foreign 19.66 20.22 20.27 20.09 Ending stocks World 29.68 33.90 34.01 31.66 Foreign 27.05 28.90 28.81 27.96 Stocks-to-use ratio Percent World 35.3 39.3 39.3 36.5 Foreign 37.1 38.6 38.4 37.1 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA estimates. FIBER SUPPLY ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1995 1994 ------------------------- Item May Jun Jul Jul ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb. bales Ginnings 0 0 0 0 Imports since August 1 14.7 19.0 NA 6.0 Stocks, beginning 6,658 4,971 3,657 4,975 At mills 794 787 751 680 Public storage 4,883 3,625 2,585 3,772 CCC stocks 862 613 292 458 Manmade: Million pounds Production 864.9 841.0 802.5 828.1 Noncellulosic 823.2 796.0 760.1 787.1 Cellulosic 41.7 45.0 42.4 41.0 Total since January 1 4,104.5 4,945.8 5,748.3 5,746.5 1995 1994 ------------------------ Apr May Jun Jun ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Million pounds Raw fiber imports 88.6 97.5 78.8 97.4 Noncellulosic 81.8 90.8 73.4 89.0 Cellulosic 6.8 6.7 5.4 8.4 Total since January 1 376.1 473.5 552.3 523.9 Wool and Mohair: 1,000 pounds Raw wool imports, clean 5,962 11,450 5,200 7,671 48's-and-finer 4,327 8,028 2,564 4,366 Not-finer-than-46's 1,635 3,422 2,636 2,987 Total since January 1 34,897 46,348 51,548 53,095 Wool top imports 330 305 520 359 Total since January 1 1,886 2,191 2,711 1,997 Mohair imports, clean 0 0 1 0 Total since January 1 10 10 11 1 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NA = Not available. COTTON SYSTEM FIBER CONSUMPTION ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1995 1994 --------------------------- Item May Jun Jul Jul ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb. bales All consumed by mills 1/ 1,006 909 740 817 Total since August 1 1/ 9,546 10,454 11,194 10,418 SA annual rate 2/ 10,974 10,727 10,109 10,969 SA daily rate 2/ 42.2 41.3 38.9 42.2 Daily rate 43.7 41.3 35.2 38.9 Upland consumed by mills 1/ 996 898 734 811 Total since August 1 1/ 9,461 10,359 11,092 10,346 SA annual rate 2/ 10,865 10,603 10,029 10,900 SA daily rate 2/ 41.8 40.8 38.6 41.9 Daily rate 43.3 40.8 34.9 38.6 Spindles in place 7,157 7,128 6,965 7,675 Active spindles 6,690 6,651 6,531 7,181 100 percent cotton 2,922 2,888 2,796 3,025 100 percent manmade 1,121 1,121 1,123 1,229 Blends 2,647 2,642 2,612 2,927 Percent Cotton's share of fibers 76.5 76.2 77.2 76.8 Manmade: 1,000 pounds Total consumed by mills 1/ 148,517 136,558 105,191 118,759 Total since August 1 1/ 1,368,193 1,504,751 1,609,942 1,576,142 Daily rate 6,457 6,207 5,009 5,655 Noncellulosic staple 5,635 5,389 4,328 4,946 Cellulosic staple 822 818 681 709 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Adjusted to calendar month. 2/ SA = seasonally adjusted. FIBER EXPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1995 1994 ------------------------ Item Apr May Jun Jun ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb. bales Upland exports 1,048 639 374 754 Total since August 1 7,694 8,333 8,707 5,950 Sales for next season 116 179 190 123 Total since August 1 3,220 3,399 3,589 376 ELS exports 56.5 45.7 36.3 15.5 Total since August 1 312.2 357.8 394.2 285.3 Sales for next season 14.1 8.3 4.5 17.9 Total since August 1 147.9 156.2 160.8 91.0 Manmade: Million pounds Raw fiber exports 90.6 76.8 73.5 76.8 Noncellulosic 83.1 72.3 66.5 73.2 Cellulosic 7.5 4.5 7.0 3.6 Total since January 1 338.0 414.7 488.2 425.0 Wool and Mohair: 1,000 pounds Raw wool exports, clean 979.3 964.6 1,170.4 243.9 Total since January 1 1,945.8 2,910.3 4,080.7 1,785.3 Wool top exports 1,009.1 1,111.6 864.8 1,308.3 Total since January 1 3,716.6 4,828.1 5,692.9 5,599.6 Mohair exports, clean 313.7 216.9 97.6 767.2 Total since January 1 2,087.6 2,304.4 2,402.0 3,163.4 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FIBER PRICES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1995 1994 --------------------------- Item Jun Jul Aug Aug ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Domestic cotton prices: Cents per pound Adjusted World Price 76.22 73.02 70.62 63.15 Oct'95 futures 87.27 78.42 78.54 69.92 Dec'95 futures 80.49 75.20 76.64 69.16 Upland spot 41-34 106.96 93.28 85.90 70.32 Pima spot 03-46 132.73 136.50 136.50 96.67 Avg. price received by: Upland producers 86.30 86.60 76.40 65.50 Mill delivered: Cotton Actual 117.65 100.04 89.71 75.45 Raw fiber equivalent 130.72 111.16 99.68 83.83 Rayon staple Actual 119.00 125.00 125.00 102.00 Raw fiber equivalent 123.96 130.21 130.21 106.25 Polyester staple Actual 92.00 92.00 92.00 76.00 Raw fiber equivalent 95.83 95.83 95.83 79.17 Price ratios Percent Cotton/rayon 105.5 85.4 76.6 78.9 Cotton/polyester 136.4 116.0 104.0 105.9 Northern Europe cotton quotes: Cents per pound A Index NQ NQ 85.44 76.73 Memphis Territory 129.00 NQ 86.90 77.25 California/Arizona NQ NQ 91.90 77.00 B Index 101.53 92.79 82.12 74.38 Orleans/Texas 121.00 NQ 83.05 73.06 Wool prices (clean): Dollars per pound U.S. 56's 1.77 1.75 1.72 1.29 Australian 56's 1/ 2.50 2.45 2.36 1.87 U.S. 60's 2.12 2.09 2.00 1.60 Australian 60's 1/ 2.73 2.61 2.53 1.97 U.S. 64's 2.85 2.61 2.50 2.35 Australian 64's 1/ 3.08 2.92 2.87 2.48 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NQ = No quote. 1/ In bond, Charleston, SC. TEXTILE TRADE ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1995 1994 ----------------------------- Item Apr May Jun Jun ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Imports: 1,000 pounds 1/ Yarn, thread, and fabric 169,789 190,550 179,202 191,189 Cotton 72,595 84,068 80,601 86,903 Linen 27,596 29,713 26,440 29,304 Wool 3,990 3,998 3,964 4,821 Silk 599 742 693 821 Manmade 65,009 72,029 67,503 69,340 Apparel 311,642 391,331 468,694 415,769 Cotton 183,812 228,180 270,887 230,463 Linen 8,091 11,449 14,375 17,040 Wool 9,046 13,644 19,444 16,339 Silk 8,560 8,520 8,509 12,745 Manmade 102,133 129,539 155,479 139,182 House furnishings 26,552 31,162 32,854 29,709 Cotton 19,381 22,959 23,925 22,048 Linen 177 372 269 143 Wool 103 113 370 118 Silk 16 17 32 21 Manmade 6,875 7,700 8,258 7,379 Floor covering 24,705 24,918 22,217 20,261 Cotton 4,015 4,755 3,643 4,719 Linen 3,029 3,169 2,607 2,393 Wool 8,758 7,768 7,182 6,476 Silk 326 510 346 356 Manmade 8,578 8,716 8,440 6,317 Total imports 2/ 538,774 644,966 710,249 663,684 Cotton 282,622 343,117 382,384 347,257 Linen 38,991 44,799 43,766 48,994 Wool 22,115 25,785 31,374 28,094 Silk 9,501 9,790 9,581 13,945 Manmade 185,545 221,476 243,144 225,394 Exports: 1,000 pounds 1/ Yarn, thread, and fabric 122,366 128,585 125,315 118,009 Cotton 41,364 44,506 43,933 36,985 Linen 3,116 3,126 3,550 2,873 Wool 3,527 3,463 3,559 3,452 Silk 1,531 1,416 1,466 1,113 Manmade 72,828 76,074 72,808 73,586 Apparel 98,562 109,922 119,426 85,799 Cotton 59,893 66,491 72,293 53,496 Linen 2,094 1,828 1,830 1,997 Wool 4,351 4,808 5,435 3,474 Silk 1,900 1,518 1,735 1,444 Manmade 30,324 35,277 38,133 25,386 House furnishings 5,027 5,239 5,224 4,717 Cotton 2,900 3,048 3,139 2,810 Linen 241 258 234 166 Wool 90 55 73 56 Silk 159 171 159 98 Manmade 1,636 1,708 1,620 1,587 Floor covering 27,403 26,594 25,789 28,577 Cotton 3,363 2,437 2,356 3,437 Linen 1,140 1,214 1,102 1,226 Wool 1,462 1,174 1,214 1,236 Silk 3/ --- --- --- --- Manmade 21,438 21,768 21,117 22,678 Total exports 2/ 253,688 270,586 276,034 237,491 Cotton 107,566 116,521 121,772 96,768 Linen 6,601 6,433 6,725 6,270 Wool 9,455 9,520 10,310 8,239 Silk 3,590 3,106 3,360 2,655 Manmade 126,476 135,006 133,867 123,559 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Includes headgear. 3/ Absence of trade. 1995 ACREAGE, YIELD, AND PRODUCTION ESTIMATES ------------------------------------------------------------------- State/ Harvested Area Yield Production Region Aug Sep Aug Sep Aug Sep ------------------------------------------------------------------- Lbs./ 1,000 1,000 acres harvested acre bales Upland: Alabama 615 615 550 500 705 640 Florida 109 109 691 691 157 157 Georgia 1,490 1,490 677 628 2,100 1,950 N. Carolina 780 780 615 535 1,000 870 S. Carolina 335 335 759 731 530 510 Virginia 107 107 700 700 156 156 Southeast 3,436 3,436 649 598 4,648 4,283 Arkansas 1,000 1,000 826 744 1,720 1,550 Louisiana 1,010 1,010 808 713 1,700 1,500 Mississippi 1,460 1,460 819 661 2,490 2,010 Missouri 415 435 729 701 630 635 Tennessee 665 665 664 595 920 825 Delta 4,550 4,570 787 685 7,460 6,520 Kansas 2 2 408 408 2 2 Oklahoma 325 325 325 325 220 220 Texas 5,700 5,700 446 438 5,300 5,200 Southwest 6,027 6,027 440 432 5,522 5,422 Arizona 354 359 1,139 1,123 840 840 California 1,195 1,175 1,165 1,123 2,900 2,750 New Mexico 51 51 781 781 83 83 West 1,600 1,585 1,147 1,112 3,823 3,673 Total Upland 15,613 15,618 660 612 21,453 19,898 Pima: Arizona 48 47 788 788 78 78 California 95 100 1,036 1,032 205 215 New Mexico 15 15 800 800 25 25 Texas 30 30 800 800 50 50 Total Pima 188 193 916 918 358 368 Total All 15,801 15,810 663 615 21,811 20,266 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on the September Crop Production report. 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