COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK July 15, 1996 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK is published monthly (except January) by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. CWS-0696. Smaller 1996 Acreage, Production and Stocks To Rise According to USDA's June Acreage report, U.S. producers have planted or intended to plant 14.36 million acres of cotton this season. The revised area is nearly 900,000 acres (6 percent) below March intentions and 2.5 million (15 percent) below 1995/96 plantings. This season's decrease in cotton area is attributable to the flexibility provisions of the new farm legislation and the relatively strong grain and soybean prices that attracted acreage away from cotton. Weather-related problems in Texas also contributed to the decline. Although total cotton acreage is lower, extra-long staple (ELS) area rose 23 percent above 1995 to 264,000 acres as extremely low ELS stocks and high prices provided the incentive for increased area. Upland area fell nearly 16 percent to 14.1 million acres. With regional cotton acreage expected below 1995, varying degrees of decline are indicated. Based on the Acreage report, reductions of 8 to 19 percent are projected. The Southeast is expected to show the smallest percentage decline while the Delta is projected to have the largest. In the West, a 10-percent reduction is indicated. In the Southwest, on the other hand, area is projected to fall 17 percent (1.2 million acres) below 1995. Overall crop conditions remained relatively stable through early July and similar to last year. Fifty-six percent of the crop was rated in "good" or "excellent" condition, compared with 59 percent a year ago. However, more of the acreage this season (15 percent versus 8 percent) is rated "poor" or "very poor," with drought conditions in Texas responsible for the majority of the area in these categories. Beneficial rains in the Southwest during the past month provided some relief, while the other regions have experienced more favorable growing conditions all season. For the week ending July 7, 79 percent of the U.S. cotton crop was squaring, compared with the 5-year average of 69 percent. In addition, 26 percent of the crop was setting bolls, 6 percentage points above the average. Although planted acreage was smaller than earlier indicated, the U.S. cotton production estimate was left unchanged at 19 million bales as favorable conditions across much of the cotton belt are expected to push yields well above average. The July projection placed the national average yield at 665 pounds per harvested acre, compared with a 5-year average of 641 pounds. On August 12, the National Agricultural Statistics Service will provide initial survey estimates of cotton harvested area, yield, and production, as well as an update on planted area. While the production projection was unchanged, imports were raised 100,000 bales to 400,000. With a similar decrease in carryin stocks, total cotton supply during the 1996/97 season is expected to reach 22 million bales, 5.5 percent above the previous year. Despite the rise in available supplies, total demand is projected to fall 4 percent to 17.6 million bales. While domestic mill use is expected to rebound to 11 million bales in 1996/97, U.S. exports are projected to weaken to 6.6 million as foreign competition strengthens. With the outlook for U.S. production to exceed use in 1996/97, ending stocks are projected to rise 1.8 million bales to 4.4 million, leaving a stocks-to-use ratio of 25 percent. If realized, this carryover and ratio would be the highest in 4 years. Foreign Production and Imports Down in 1996/97 Lower world prices during 1995/96 are expected to drive foreign production down 2.7 million bales in 1996/97, to 70 million bales, as smaller crops in China and India offset gains in Australia, Egypt, Brazil, and Spain. Foreign consumption is expected to rise 1.3 million bales, to 76 million, as increases in India, Brazil, Mexico, Turkey, and Egypt more than offset smaller use in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. Lower foreign imports are expected largely because of a 1.4-million-bale decline by China. Foreign exports are expected to rise, particularly from Argentina and Australia. Net foreign imports are expected to decline by 900,000 bales in 1996/97. U.S. exports are expected to fall by an even larger amount, down 1.2 million bales to 6.6 million. With world trade forecast at 27 million bales in 1996/97, the U.S. share of world trade is expected to fall substantially, to 24.5 percent versus a 30.5 percent average for 1994/95-1995/96. Foreign Area Volatile During the 1990's During the last 4 years, foreign cotton area has alternately fallen 13 percent over a 2-year period, and then risen 13 percent over a 2-year period, corresponding to real prices that alternately plunged by more than one-third and then rose by more than one-third. During 1995/96, the A Index fell about 10 percent in inflation-adjusted terms, and foreign area is expected to turn downward in 1996/97, with a 900,000-hectare decline currently forecast. However, foreign area is declining far less than U.S. area, only 3.2 percent compared with 15.2 percent for the United States. In 1996/97, Paraguay and Mali are the most important producers with expected area declines comparable to the United States--13 percent and 11 percent, respectively. By comparison, China and India are expected to lose 8 percent of area; Turkey and Argentina, 4 percent; and Greece, 2 percent. Area in the former Soviet Union is expected to fall only 1 percent, and no change is expected in Pakistan. Some foreign producers are expected to plant more cotton in 1996/97. Australia and Spain have seen a vast improvement in their water supplies, permitting expanded plantings after years of drought. Uganda, Egypt, and Sudan have been reforming economic policies affecting cotton in recent years, nurturing a renaissance in their long-suffering cotton producing sectors. Similarly, Chad and Cote d'Ivoire continue to maintain favorable prices for farm inputs while a massive currency devaluation from a few years ago continues to support increased cotton area. Mexico's area is forecast at more than double its 1993/94 level, due to agricultural policy changes and the peso's sudden devaluation. Generally, the annual variability of area in the United States is much greater than the variability of total foreign cotton area. But in recent years foreign plantings have grown increasingly volatile while the variability of U.S. cotton area has been relatively constant. Massive shifts in the availability of cotton in the former Soviet Union and China have forced the remaining foreign producers' area to gyrate down to a 39-year low in 1993/94 and then up to a record high in 1995/96. Foreign yields are expected to be about unchanged overall in 1996/97. Lower yields are expected in China, India, Greece, Turkey, and Uzbekistan in part due to the assumption of more normal weather in 1996/97. On the other hand, South America is expected to see substantially higher yields in 1996/97, again assuming more normal weather. Increased irrigation supplies are expected to drive Australia's yields higher. However, virtually no other country is expected to surpass the United States' expected 24-percent rebound in yields. Although Brazil and Paraguay experienced yield losses comparable to the United States in 1995/96, substantially smaller rebounds are foreseen in each case in 1996/97. Consumption Continues Growing Foreign consumption grew in 1995/96 for the first time since 1989, and another gain of under 2 percent is expected in 1996/97. Foreign consumption of cotton steadily declined between 1989/90 and 1994/95, largely due to the former Soviet Union (FSU). FSU consumption fell 6.3 million bales during this time, while the remaining foreign countries increased consumption by 1.8 million bales. China's consumption stagnated during this period, going from 20.3 million bales in 1989/90 to 20.2 million in 1994/95. Both China and the FSU increased their cotton consumption in 1995/96, and further gains are expected in 1996/97. Gains are also expected in the rest of the world, which has steadily consumed more cotton virtually every year since 1981. Japan's consumption is expected to continue falling, as is Korea's, and--barely--the European Union's. Eastern Europe, Indonesia, and Bangladesh, are expected to consume more cotton, and larger gains are likely in India, Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey. The volume of world trade is expected to fall in 1996/97, largely because of reduced imports by China, the world's largest importer during the last 2 years. China's ending stocks have rebounded strongly during the last 2 years through huge imports, rising production, stagnant consumption, and falling exports. Forecasting China's imports have always been difficult, but imports fell about 1 million bales in 1995/96 following a 2.7-million-bale jump in production the year before. Because China's cotton crop rose another 2 million bales to its third largest ever in 1995/96, another reduction in imports seems plausible. At 1.6 million bales, China is forecast to be the third largest importer in the world, following Indonesia and Brazil. Lower imports are also foreseen for Japan and Taiwan, where cotton consumption is declining. Larger imports are foreseen by Turkey and Russia. Foreign ending stocks are expected to fall slightly (350,000 bales) in 1996/97 because of a 1-million-bale drop forecast for India and a 400,000-bale decline for China. Excluding India and China, foreign ending stocks are expected to rise 1.1 million bales. Australia's expected 440,000-bale increase is the largest as a rebounding crop permits stocks to rise from the reduced levels reached during the drought that has plagued Australia for much of the 1990's. U.S. Mill Use Stable Cotton mill consumption remained strong in May according to the latest report from the U.S. Commerce Department. U.S. mill use averaged a seasonally adjusted 40,900 480-pound bales per day in May, compared with 40,800 bales in April. During May, the actual daily rate totaled 42,500 bales, compared with 43,700 bales per day a year earlier. On a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis, May consumption remained near 10.7 million bales, compared with 11 million for May 1995. So far this season, the SAAR has averaged 10.5 million bales. Cotton mill consumption for the first 10 months of 1995/96 approached 8.9 million bales, compared with 9.5 million for the corresponding period a year ago. With mill use expected to continue near its current level, total cotton consumption for 1995/96 should reach the current 10.5-million-bale estimate. U.S. Raw Cotton Imports Expand With the recent high U.S. cotton prices and foreign supplies available to import under the "Step 3" quotas, U.S. mills are experimenting with foreign cotton this season to an extent not seen in 50 years. For the season through July 7, U.S. cotton imports have totaled slightly over 200,000 bales. With only a few weeks remaining to reach the 1995/96 estimate of 300,000 bales, imports would have to average roughly 4,000 bales per day, the daily average of the most recent 4 weeks for which data are available. The import demand is also expected to expand further in 1996/97. U.S. imports are currently projected to reach 400,000 bales. If realized, this would be the largest supply of foreign cotton brought into the United States since 1928/29. Cotton Prices Move Lower U.S. cotton prices continued lower in June. Spot prices for upland and ELS cotton declined to 80 cents and $1.40 per pound, respectively. While the upland price was 27 cents below June 1995, the ELS price was 7 cents higher, reflecting the continued tight stock situation for ELS cotton. Mill-delivered upland prices during June fell 4 cents to 86 cents per pound, the lowest since November 1994. Likewise, polyester staple and rayon prices have declined recently. Polyester prices in June were 78 cents per pound while rayon prices were $1.15. Cotton has become more price competitive recently, which has allowed cotton mill use to remain strong. New-crop cotton prices have also declined in recent weeks. In June, the December 1996 futures averaged 76.4 cents per pound, 5.4 cents below May. However, during the first part of July, this contract averaged only 73.4 cents per pound. In addition, "new crop" A Index prices have tumbled from the high reached in early May. As of early July, the A Index averaged near 79 cents per pound, with the U.S. quotes 3-5 cents above the average. Nonetheless, the U.S. quotes have become more competitive recently and perhaps this will provide the spark for 1996/97 export sales to expand. Textile Imports Rise in April Preliminary April textile trade data indicate imports rose 2 percent from a month earlier to 543 million (raw-fiber equivalent) pounds. However, April's shipments were only slightly higher than a year ago (less than 1 percent). Imports of all fibers except linen were above March levels. Larger floor covering and yarn, thread, and fabric imports more than offset declines in apparel and house furnishing shipments. Cotton textile imports, at 293 million pounds, accounted for 54 percent of all textile shipments, unchanged from March's share. Total U.S. textile exports declined in April to 282 million pounds, 1 percent below the previous month but 11 percent above April 1995 shipments. Only cotton exports rose while other major fibers fell below month-earlier levels. Declines also occurred for all major end uses except apparel. Apparel exports, at 124 million pounds, accounted for 44 percent of total April shipments and were 26 percent above year-ago exports. Overall, the April textile trade deficit was 261 million pounds, with cotton accounting for 63 percent of the total (164 million pounds). The April deficit declined 8 percent from a year earlier when it totaled 285 million pounds. In addition, the deficit for the first 4 months of 1996 was 1.2 billion pounds, compared with 1.5 billion a year ago. Weaker imports of all major fiber types and stronger cotton and manmade fiber exports have reduced the trade deficit this year. The next Cotton and Wool Outlook (CWS-0796) will be released on August 13. For further information, contact Leslie Meyer at (202) 501-8528 (U.S. Cotton), Steve MacDonald at (202) 219-1179 (Foreign Cotton), or Robert Skinner at (202) 219-0767 (Textiles and Wool). U.S. COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1995/96 ---------------------------- Item 1994/95 May Jun Jul ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Upland: Million acres Planted 13.55 16.72 16.72 16.72 Program 11.62 11.02 11.02 11.02 Harvested 13.16 15.80 15.80 15.80 Pounds Yield/harvested acre 705 533 533 533 Million 480-lb. bales Beginning stocks 3.30 2.59 2.59 2.59 Production 19.32 17.53 17.53 17.53 Total supply 1/ 22.65 20.41 20.42 20.42 Mill use 11.10 10.41 10.40 10.40 Exports 8.98 7.39 7.40 7.50 Total use 20.07 17.79 17.80 17.90 Ending stocks 2.59 2.67 2.67 2.57 Percent Stocks-to-use ratio 12.9 15.0 15.0 14.4 Extra-long staple: 1,000 acres Planted 169 215 215 215 Program 84 26 26 26 Harvested 166 211 211 211 Pounds Yield/harvested acre 974 836 836 836 1,000 480-lb. bales Beginning stocks 227 59 59 59 Production 338 368 368 368 Total supply 1/ 567 437 432 432 Mill use 102 95 105 105 Exports 424 315 300 300 Total use 526 410 405 405 Ending stocks 59 27 27 27 Percent Stocks-to-use ratio 11.2 6.6 6.7 6.7 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA estimates. 1/ Includes imports. WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1995/96 ------------------------------ Item 1994/95 May Jun Jul ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Supply: Million 480-lb. bales Beginning stocks World 26.28 28.91 28.77 29.29 Foreign 22.75 26.26 26.12 26.64 Production World 85.53 88.41 89.98 90.62 Foreign 65.87 70.51 72.08 72.72 Imports World 30.84 28.59 28.42 26.96 Foreign 30.82 28.29 28.12 26.66 Use: Mill use World 84.69 85.62 85.50 85.20 Foreign 73.49 75.12 75.00 74.70 Exports World 28.48 28.39 28.18 27.74 Foreign 19.07 20.69 20.48 19.94 Ending stocks World 29.29 31.73 33.34 33.78 Foreign 26.64 28.03 30.64 31.18 Stocks-to-use ratio Percent World 34.6 37.1 39.0 39.6 Foreign 36.2 38.6 40.9 41.7 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA estimates. FIBER SUPPLY ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1996 1995 -------------------------- Item Mar Apr May May ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb. bales Ginnings 0 0 0 0 Imports since August 1 28.3 41.8 NA 12.4 Stocks, beginning 8,962 7,297 5,814 6,658 At mills 650 641 662 794 Public storage 6,916 5,575 4,519 4,883 CCC stocks 1,899 1,501 1,103 862 Manmade: Million pounds Production 804.4 795.6 824.5 864.9 Noncellulosic 762.5 755.5 782.5 823.2 Cellulosic 41.9 40.1 42.0 41.7 Total since January 1 2,363.3 3,158.9 3,983.4 4,104.5 1996 1995 --------------------------- Feb Mar Apr Apr ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Million pounds Raw fiber imports 80.5 92.3 90.7 88.6 Noncellulosic 75.3 85.5 85.8 81.8 Cellulosic 5.2 6.8 4.9 6.8 Total since January 1 163.7 256.0 346.7 376.1 Wool and Mohair: 1,000 pounds Raw wool imports, clean 9,114 8,728 5,534 5,962 48's-and-finer 5,891 6,162 3,824 4,327 Not-finer-than-46's 3,223 2,566 1,710 1,635 Total since January 1 18,737 27,465 32,999 34,897 Wool top imports 170 103 402 330 Total since January 1 799 902 1,304 1,886 Mohair imports, clean 1 0 2 0 Total since January 1 3 3 5 10 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NA = Not available. COTTON SYSTEM FIBER CONSUMPTION ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1996 1995 --------------------------- Item Mar Apr May May ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb. bales All consumed by mills 1/ 902 921 978 1,006 Total since August 1 1/ 6,971 7,892 8,871 9,546 SA annual rate 2/ 10,739 10,699 10,721 11,010 SA daily rate 2/ 41.0 40.8 40.9 42.2 Daily rate 42.9 41.9 42.5 43.7 Upland consumed by mills 1/ 890 905 962 996 Total since August 1 1/ 6,895 7,800 8,762 9,461 SA annual rate 2/ 10,595 10,502 10,540 10,900 SA daily rate 2/ 40.4 40.1 40.2 41.8 Daily rate 42.4 41.1 41.8 43.3 Spindles in place 6,417 6,344 6,292 7,157 Active spindles 5,947 5,777 5,756 6,690 100 percent cotton 2,677 2,645 2,662 2,922 100 percent manmade 1,039 1,016 1,009 1,121 Blends 2,231 2,116 2,085 2,647 Percent Cotton's share of fibers 78.0 78.6 77.7 76.5 Manmade: 1,000 pounds Total consumed by mills 1/ 121,817 120,670 134,545 148,517 Total since August 1 1/ 933,268 1,053,938 1,188,483 1,368,193 Daily rate 5,801 5,485 5,850 6,457 Noncellulosic staple 4,876 4,676 5,019 5,635 Cellulosic staple 925 809 831 822 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Adjusted to calendar month. 2/ SA = seasonally adjusted. FIBER EXPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1996 1995 -------------------------- Item Feb Mar Apr Apr ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb. bales Upland exports 1,257 739 552 1,048 Total since August 1 5,342 6,081 6,633 7,694 Sales for next season 28 96 36 116 Total since August 1 281 377 413 3,220 ELS exports 37.9 38.7 24.5 56.5 Total since August 1 190.3 229.0 253.5 312.2 Sales for next season 18.4 25.7 12.1 14.1 Total since August 1 113.9 139.7 151.7 147.9 Manmade: Million pounds Raw fiber exports 96.7 97.5 88.7 90.6 Noncellulosic 92.8 91.5 83.0 83.1 Cellulosic 3.9 6.0 5.7 7.5 Total since January 1 171.9 269.4 358.1 338.0 Wool and Mohair: 1,000 pounds Raw wool exports, clean 183.4 440.5 440.9 241.0 Total since January 1 519.9 960.3 1,365.3 571.2 Wool top exports 1,147.9 842.0 659.6 1,009.1 Total since January 1 1,970.1 2,812.1 3,471.6 3,716.6 Mohair exports, clean 206.8 323.9 214.2 313.7 Total since January 1 1,443.6 1,767.5 1,981.7 2,087.5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FIBER PRICES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1996 1995 ----------------------------- Item Apr May Jun Jun ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Domestic cotton prices: Cents per pound Adjusted World Price 68.53 69.87 68.55 76.22 Oct'96 futures 83.06 82.53 76.58 78.18 Dec'96 futures 81.19 81.86 76.43 75.37 Upland spot 41-34 84.69 83.22 80.23 106.96 Pima spot 03-46 163.46 154.35 140.00 132.73 Avg. price received by: Upland producers 79.60 78.10 79.00 79.30 Mill delivered: Cotton Actual 92.10 90.20 85.99 117.65 Raw fiber equivalent 102.33 100.22 95.54 130.72 Rayon staple Actual 120.00 115.00 115.00 119.00 Raw fiber equivalent 125.00 119.79 119.79 123.96 Polyester staple Actual 84.00 80.00 78.00 92.00 Raw fiber equivalent 87.50 83.33 81.25 95.83 Price ratios Percent Cotton/rayon 81.9 83.7 79.8 105.5 Cotton/polyester 117.0 120.3 117.6 136.4 Northern Europe cotton quotes: Cents per pound A Index 82.90 83.23 82.80 NA Memphis Territory 96.69 95.60 93.25 129.00 California/Arizona 100.13 98.50 93.25 NA B Index 77.53 77.71 77.25 101.53 Orleans/Texas 91.06 89.00 85.75 121.00 Wool prices (clean): Dollars per pound U.S. 56's 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.77 Australian 56's 1/ 1.83 1.84 1.81 2.50 U.S. 60's 1.57 1.56 1.55 2.12 Australian 60's 1/ 1.97 1.95 1.99 2.73 U.S. 64's 1.97 1.95 1.92 2.85 Australian 64's 1/ 2.34 2.42 2.45 3.08 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NA = Not available. 1/ In bond, Charleston, SC. TEXTILE TRADE ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1996 1995 ----------------------------- Item Feb Mar Apr Apr ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Imports: 1,000 pounds 1/ Yarn, thread, and fabric 139,967 146,106 160,564 169,789 Cotton 61,012 57,646 68,976 72,595 Linen 22,606 26,665 26,278 27,596 Wool 3,000 3,372 3,740 3,990 Silk 556 644 680 599 Manmade 52,792 57,779 60,890 65,009 Apparel 372,675 339,157 332,639 311,642 Cotton 221,484 203,188 196,649 183,812 Linen 9,925 7,562 6,782 8,091 Wool 11,058 10,236 11,581 9,046 Silk 9,888 8,795 9,232 8,560 Manmade 120,320 109,376 108,395 102,133 House furnishings 27,596 28,427 26,803 26,552 Cotton 20,749 20,966 19,798 19,381 Linen 178 135 106 177 Wool 99 86 67 103 Silk 29 28 37 16 Manmade 6,541 7,213 6,794 6,875 Floor covering 15,041 14,602 17,679 24,705 Cotton 3,518 3,184 4,441 4,015 Linen 2,228 2,136 2,267 3,029 Wool 3,791 3,172 4,398 8,758 Silk 335 230 236 326 Manmade 5,169 5,880 6,336 8,578 Total imports 2/ 562,291 533,687 542,967 538,774 Cotton 310,967 287,881 292,616 282,622 Linen 34,957 36,534 35,457 38,991 Wool 17,983 16,915 19,882 22,115 Silk 10,812 9,701 10,190 9,501 Manmade 187,571 182,656 184,822 185,545 Exports: 1,000 pounds 1/ Yarn, thread, and fabric 116,595 123,971 121,258 122,366 Cotton 41,978 45,675 45,911 41,364 Linen 3,321 3,166 3,372 3,116 Wool 2,777 3,169 3,445 3,527 Silk 1,314 1,319 1,230 1,531 Manmade 67,205 70,642 67,300 72,828 Apparel 104,565 123,585 124,238 98,562 Cotton 62,252 72,932 76,011 59,893 Linen 2,117 2,618 2,056 2,094 Wool 4,597 6,168 5,445 4,351 Silk 1,757 2,014 1,794 1,900 Manmade 33,842 39,852 38,932 30,324 House furnishings 5,327 6,140 5,851 5,027 Cotton 3,172 3,965 3,484 2,900 Linen 270 257 180 241 Wool 105 56 68 90 Silk 151 59 87 159 Manmade 1,629 1,802 2,031 1,636 Floor covering 25,649 30,657 29,929 27,403 Cotton 2,754 3,138 2,805 3,363 Linen 1,072 1,273 1,256 1,140 Wool 1,793 1,727 1,512 1,462 Silk 3/ --- --- --- --- Manmade 20,030 24,519 24,356 21,438 Total exports 2/ 252,615 284,847 281,585 253,688 Cotton 110,214 125,791 128,269 107,566 Linen 6,793 7,331 6,877 6,601 Wool 9,296 11,156 10,492 9,455 Silk 3,222 3,392 3,111 3,590 Manmade 123,090 137,178 132,835 126,476 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 1996 data are subject to revision. 2/ Includes headgear. 3/ Absence of trade. ACTUAL AND PROJECTED COTTON ACREAGE ------------------------------------------------------------------- Projected Projected State/ Actual March June Region 1995 1996 1/ 1996 2/ 1996/1995 ------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 acres Percent Upland: Alabama 590 580 560 95 Florida 110 120 120 109 Georgia 1,500 1,380 1,380 92 N. Carolina 805 780 750 93 S. Carolina 348 310 270 78 Virginia 107 115 105 98 Southeast 3,460 3,285 3,185 92 Arkansas 1,170 1,100 1,000 85 Louisiana 1,085 970 950 88 Mississippi 1,460 1,200 1,050 72 Missouri 462 460 410 89 Tennessee 700 630 530 76 Delta 4,877 4,360 3,940 81 Kansas 4 2 2 39 Oklahoma 380 350 290 76 Texas 6,400 5,500 5,300 83 Southwest 6,784 5,852 5,592 82 Arizona 365 325 325 89 California 1,170 1,100 1,000 85 New Mexico 61 60 58 95 West 1,596 1,485 1,383 87 Total Upland 16,717 14,982 14,100 84 Pima: Arizona 49 40 40 82 California 115 165 165 143 New Mexico 15 18 17 113 Texas 36 42 42 117 Total Pima 215 265 264 123 Total All 16,931 15,247 14,364 85 ------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Planting intentions as indicated by reports from farmers. 2/ Total acres planted or intended to be planted. end end end