COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK July 14, 1997 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK is issued electronically 11 months a year (no January issue) by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. No printed copies available. CWS-06f7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Smaller 1997 Area and Production According to USDA's June Acreage report, U.S. producers have planted or intended to plant 14.0 million acres of cotton this season. The revised area is nearly 500,000 acres (3 percent) below March intentions and more than 600,000 below 1996/97. The decline is attributable to a cool, wet spring which limited plantings and generally favorable net return prospects for several competing crops. Upland area fell 4 percent from 1996 to 13.75 million acres, while extra-long staple (ELS) cotton is expected to fall 3 percent to 250,000 acres. Each region, except the Southeast, indicated smaller area devoted to cotton in 1997. Based on the Acreage report, the Delta experienced the largest decline, 14 percent below 1996. Indications also include a 7-percent reduction in cotton area in the West, while the Southwest is expected to experience only a 1 percent decline from a year ago. In contrast, the Southeast showed a 2-percent gain, as the recent buildup in the cotton infrastructure of the region has supported acreage there and some area planted to corn last year has returned to cotton. Overall crop conditions have generally improved over the last several weeks and are slightly better than a year ago. As of July 6, 60 percent of the crop was rated in "good" or "excellent" condition, compared with 56 percent a year ago. While the condition of the U.S. cotton crop is similar to 1996, the development of the crop remains behind schedule. By July 6, 67 percent of the crop was squaring, compared with 77 percent last year and a 5-year average of 70 percent. In addition, only 14 percent of the cotton crop was setting bolls, compared with 24 percent in 1996 and a 5-year average of 20 percent. With planted acreage smaller than earlier indicated, the U.S. cotton production estimate was also lowered. The July projection for U.S. production is 18 million bales, 500,000 below a month earlier. With many uncertainties still surrounding the crop, the national average yield was left unchanged at the trend level of 670 pounds per harvested acre. Harvested area was lowered to 12.9 million acres. On August 12, the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) will provide initial survey estimates of cotton harvested area, yield, and production, as well as an update on planted area. With the lower production projection and 1997/98 carryin stocks near 4 million bales, total cotton supply is estimated similar to 1996/97 at 22.1 million bales. Meanwhile, total demand is expected to rise slightly to 18.1 million bales, with most of the increase anticipated attributable to domestic mill consumption. Mill use is expected to improve to 11 million bales in 1997/98. The export forecast for 1997/98 was lowered 200,000 bales from June to 7.1 million, as a smaller U.S. crop and increased competition from foreign exports is anticipated. However, the U.S. export forecast is similar to 1996/97. With the outlook for U.S. cotton production offset by total demand, 1997/98 ending stocks are projected to remain near the 4-million-bale level, a stocks-to-use ratio of about 22 percent which is slightly lower than in 1996/97. Foreign Production and Consumption Foreign cotton production in 1997/98 is expected to be about unchanged from a year earlier at 68.9 million bales, while consumption is expected to rise 2 percent from 1996/97 to 77.1 million. Foreign trade is expected to be slightly higher than the year before, and foreign ending stocks are expected to decline. Foreign ending stocks in 1997/98 are expected to fall 1.2 million bales from the year before to 31.3 million, or 32 percent of use. A 32-percent stocks-to-use ratio would be down from an estimated 34 percent for 1996/97. However, most of the world's stocks outside of the United States are in China, and most of the forecasted foreign stock change is in China. Excluding China--where stocks have not been accessible to the world market--foreign ending stocks are expected to fall only 360,000 bales. Foreign cotton stocks, excluding China, as a share of use are expected to fall from 22.5 percent in 1996/97 to 21.4 percent in 1997/98. As with stocks, the largest expected annual change in production in 1997/98 is China's, a 2.3-million-bale decline, to 17 million bales. China's planted area is expected to fall almost 5 percent from 1996/97, following procurement difficulties during the 1996/97 harvest that may have discouraged some farmers from planting this spring. Slightly lower yields are also expected due to reduced input use, and the possibility of bollworm problems following a warm winter. India's crop is also expected to fall in 1997/98, but rebounding yields are expected to increase production in Uzbekistan and Pakistan. Higher production than the year before is also expected for Argentina, Greece, Brazil, and Paraguay. With higher production expected in a number of countries, once Chinas production is excluded, foreign production is expected to rise 2.1 million bales. For consumption in 1997/98, China is again the largest single expected year-to-year change, but accounts for a much smaller share of expected global change than is the case for either stocks or production. China's consumption is expected to rise 300,000 bales to 20.5 million. India is forecast to be both the second largest consumer of cotton in the world--at 12.4 million bales--and tied with Pakistan for the second largest expected year-to-year change in consumption, a 200,000-bale increase. This would represent a rebound for Pakistan, but would be the slowest rate of growth in India's consumption since 1991. U.S. Mill Use and Exports Lowered Slightly Based on the latest U.S. Commerce Department data, U.S. cotton mill consumption averaged a seasonally adjusted 41,500 480-pound bales per day in May, compared with 42,000 bales in April. During May 1996, the rate equaled 41,400 bales. On a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis, May cotton mill use totaled 10.8 million bales, down from April's 11-million-bale rate. So far this season, the SAAR has averaged 10.85 million bales. Cotton mill consumption for the first 10 months of 1996/97 approached 9.1 million bales, compared with 8.9 million a year earlier when 10.65 million bales were used. With cotton mill use expected to continue near its recent levels, the cotton consumption estimate for the 1996/97 season was lowered slightly to 10.85 million bales. Meanwhile, manmade fiber usage on the cotton system increased slightly from April to nearly 134 million pounds in May. Since August, manmade fiber use has exceeded 1.25 billion pounds, 5 percent above a year ago. Cotton's share of fiber use during the first 10 month's of 1996/97 remains at 77.7 percent, below 1995/96's 78.1 percent. Like mill consumption, U.S. exports for 1996/97 were lowered slightly this month, reflecting the shipment pace reported in recent U.S. Export Sales reports. Exports are currently estimated at 7.05 million bales; shipments similar to the June average of 140,000 bales are necessary during each of the remaining 4 weeks. Cotton Prices Move Higher U.S. cotton prices increased in June, with the exception of the ELS spot price. The average price received by upland producers during the first half of June was 69.8 cents per pound, up from 68.1 cents in May and the highest since October 1996. Spot prices for base quality upland cotton also rose slightly to a June average of 71 cents. For ELS, the spot price fell nearly 7 cents per pound from May to $1.08 in June. Mill-delivered upland prices continued higher, rising from the 2-1/2 year low reported in April. For June, the mill price averaged 77 cents per pound, 1.5 cents above May. Unlike cotton, however, rayon and polyester staple prices have held constant. Rayon prices in June averaged $1.15 per pound while polyester prices were 68 cents. Cotton prices have become somewhat less competitive and this may help explain the recent decline in cotton's share of fiber use. New-crop prices also moved higher in June with the December 1997 futures averaging near 76 cents per pound. However, during the first part of July, this contract has averaged closer to 75 cents. Similarly, A Index prices have declined slightly in early July, averaging near the 81-cent level, with the U.S. quotes 2 cents above the A Index. "Step 2" Triggered On July 10, the upland cotton user marketing certificate program, known as "Step 2," triggered for the first time since November 24, 1994. The "Step 2" program is designed to keep U.S. cotton competitive on the world market. Payments are made to U.S. manufacturers and exporters of U.S. upland cotton during the week subsequent to announcement. Depending on cotton prices, the current payment rate of 0.57 cents per pound will either be recomputed or eliminated as determined by formula each Thursday. Textile Trade Deficit Rises in April Preliminary April textile trade data indicate imports rose 4 percent from a month earlier to 688 million (raw-fiber equivalent) pounds. April shipments were the largest since October 1996 and were 23 percent above a year ago. Imports of all fibers, except linen, were above March levels. Imports of all end-use categories were also above a month earlier. Cotton textile imports, at 369 million pounds, accounted for 54 percent of all textile shipments, up nearly 2 percent from March's share. Total U.S. textile exports increased 1 percent above the previous month but were nearly 16 percent above a year earlier. Shipments of all fibers, except cotton, rose above month-earlier levels. Larger shipments of apparel and yarn, thread, and fabric more than offset declines in home furnishings and floor coverings. Apparel exports, at 142 million pounds, accounted for 47 percent of total April shipments and were 24 percent above year-ago exports. Overall, the April textile trade deficit was 362 million pounds, with cotton accounting for 63 percent of the total (227 million pounds). The April deficit increased 30 percent from a year earlier when it totaled 278 million pounds. In addition, the deficit for the first 4 months of 1997 was 1.5 billion pounds, compared with 1.25 billion a year ago. Despite larger textile exports of all fibers, except manmade, from a year earlier, stronger growth of textile imports has increased the trade deficit this year. * * * The next issue of COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK (CWS-0797) will be released August 13. For further information, contact Leslie Meyer at (202) 501-8528 (U.S. Cotton), Steve MacDonald at (202) 219-1179 (Foreign Cotton), or Robert Skinner at (202) 219-0767 (Textiles and Wool). U.S. COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1996/97 ---------------------------- Item 1995/96 May Jun Jul ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Upland: Million acres Planted 16.72 14.38 14.38 14.38 Harvested 15.80 12.61 12.61 12.61 Pounds Yield/harvested acre 533 701 701 701 Million 480-lb. bales Beginning stocks 2.59 2.54 2.54 2.54 Production 17.53 18.41 18.41 18.41 Total supply 1/ 20.52 21.36 21.36 21.36 Mill use 10.54 10.79 10.79 10.75 Exports 7.38 6.55 6.64 6.59 Total use 17.91 17.34 17.43 17.34 Ending stocks 2.54 4.01 3.91 4.01 Percent Stocks-to-use ratio 14.2 23.1 22.4 23.1 Extra-long staple: 1,000 acres Planted 215 258 258 258 Harvested 211 256 256 256 Pounds Yield/harvested acre 836 991 991 991 1,000 480-lb. bales Beginning stocks 62 66 66 66 Production 368 529 529 529 Total supply 1/ 438 600 600 595 Mill use 109 110 110 105 Exports 300 450 460 460 Total use 409 560 570 565 Ending stocks 66 40 40 40 Percent Stocks-to-use ratio 16.1 7.1 7.0 7.1 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA estimates. 1/ Includes imports. WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1996/97 ------------------------------ Item 1995/96 May Jun Jul ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Supply: Million 480-lb. bales Beginning stocks World 28.15 35.42 33.47 33.61 Foreign 25.50 32.81 30.86 31.00 Production World 92.41 87.95 88.27 88.05 Foreign 74.51 69.00 69.32 69.11 Imports World 27.50 27.54 28.10 28.21 Foreign 27.10 27.13 27.70 27.80 Use: Mill use World 86.64 86.44 86.67 86.36 Foreign 75.99 75.54 75.77 75.51 Exports World 27.48 26.73 26.66 26.66 Foreign 19.80 19.73 19.56 19.61 Ending stocks World 33.61 37.54 36.31 36.55 Foreign 31.00 33.49 32.36 32.50 Stocks-to-use ratio Percent World 38.8 43.4 41.9 42.3 Foreign 40.8 44.3 42.7 43.0 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA estimates. FIBER SUPPLY ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1997 1996 --------------------------- Item Mar Apr May May ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb. bales Ginnings 0 0 0 0 Imports since August 1 401.1 401.6 NA 90.2 Stocks, beginning 12,088 10,353 8,689 5,778 At mills 683 695 698 662 Public storage 9,397 7,876 6,409 4,519 CCC stocks 2,231 1,834 1,495 1,103 Manmade: Million pounds Production 864.4 913.2 824.5 811.3 Noncellulosic 818.6 867.3 780.4 769.3 Cellulosic 45.8 45.9 44.1 42.0 Total since January 1 2,573.2 3,486.4 4,310.9 3,968.2 1997 1996 ----------------------------- Feb Mar Apr Apr ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Million pounds Raw fiber imports 105.5 113.0 107.5 91.1 Noncellulosic 97.9 105.2 100.0 85.9 Cellulosic 7.6 7.8 7.5 5.2 Total since January 1 228.5 341.5 449.0 347.1 Wool and Mohair: 1,000 pounds Raw wool imports, clean 5,767 6,112 6,633 5,574 48's-and-finer 2,144 3,331 4,608 3,824 Not-finer-than-46's 3,623 2,781 2,026 1,750 Total since January 1 15,469 21,581 28,215 33,152 Wool top imports 79 249 167 402 Total since January 1 152 401 568 1,304 Mohair imports, clean 9 3 0 2 Total since January 1 9 3 3 5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NA = Not available. COTTON SYSTEM FIBER CONSUMPTION ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1997 1996 --------------------------- Item Mar Apr May May ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb. bales All consumed by mills 1/ 888 955 950 991 Total since August 1 1/ 7,180 8,135 9,085 8,919 SA annual rate 2/ 10,644 10,956 10,822 10,840 SA daily rate 2/ 40.8 42.0 41.5 41.4 Daily rate 42.3 43.4 43.2 43.1 Upland consumed by mills 1/ 878 945 940 982 Total since August 1 1/ 7,111 8,056 8,996 8,828 SA annual rate 2/ 10,522 10,840 10,712 10,733 SA daily rate 2/ 40.3 41.5 41.0 41.0 Daily rate 41.8 43.0 42.7 42.7 Spindles in place 5,763 5,699 5,621 6,237 Active spindles 5,437 5,373 5,329 5,702 100 percent cotton 2,584 2,546 2,561 2,634 100 percent manmade 934 935 892 980 Blends 1,919 1,892 1,876 2,088 Percent Cotton's share of fibers 78.3 77.5 77.3 78.0 Manmade: 1,000 pounds Total consumed by mills 1/ 118,401 132,934 133,639 134,498 Total since August 1 1/ 985,614 1,118,548 1,252,187 1,188,436 Daily rate 5,638 6,042 6,075 5,848 Noncellulosic staple 4,988 5,377 5,460 5,015 Cellulosic staple 650 665 615 833 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Adjusted to calendar month. 2/ SA = seasonally adjusted. FIBER EXPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1997 1996 -------------------------- Item Feb Mar Apr Apr ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb. bales Upland exports 673 772 676 552 Total since August 1 3,287 4,059 4,735 6,633 Sales for next season 99 161 166 36 Total since August 1 295 456 622 413 ELS exports 55.8 75.7 35.0 24.5 Total since August 1 283.3 359.0 394.0 253.5 Sales for next season 4.7 30.8 18.6 12.1 Total since August 1 23.1 53.9 72.5 151.7 Manmade: Million pounds Raw fiber exports 93.0 104.5 96.3 88.7 Noncellulosic 85.1 90.4 83.5 83.0 Cellulosic 7.9 14.1 12.8 5.7 Total since January 1 197.0 301.5 397.8 358.1 Wool and Mohair: 1,000 pounds Raw wool exports, clean 139.9 481.9 385.1 404.9 Total since January 1 440.0 921.9 1,307.0 1,365.2 Wool top exports 522.3 845.1 444.4 659.6 Total since January 1 967.4 1,812.4 2,256.8 3,471.7 Mohair exports, clean 222.8 223.6 146.4 214.2 Total since January 1 222.8 446.3 592.7 1,981.7 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FIBER PRICES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1997 1996 -------------------------- Item Apr May Jun Jun ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Domestic cotton prices: Cents per pound Adjusted World Price 64.68 65.92 66.66 68.55 Oct'97 futures 74.68 73.96 75.23 78.00 Dec'97 futures 75.64 74.84 75.92 77.22 Upland spot 41-34 69.09 69.30 71.03 80.23 Pima spot 03-46 116.50 114.83 108.07 140.00 Avg. price received by: Upland producers 67.30 68.10 69.80 76.90 Mill delivered: Cotton Actual 75.18 75.54 77.09 85.99 Raw fiber equivalent 83.53 83.93 85.66 95.54 Rayon staple Actual 115.00 115.00 115.00 115.00 Raw fiber equivalent 119.79 119.79 119.79 119.79 Polyester staple Actual 68.00 68.00 68.00 78.00 Raw fiber equivalent 70.83 70.83 70.83 81.25 Price ratios Percent Cotton/rayon 69.7 70.1 71.5 79.8 Cotton/polyester 117.9 118.5 120.9 117.6 Northern Europe cotton quotes: Cents per pound A Index 78.85 79.38 80.84 82.80 Memphis Territory 80.50 80.75 82.50 93.25 California/Arizona 82.13 82.15 84.63 93.25 B Index 73.19 75.64 79.54 77.25 Orleans/Texas 76.25 76.65 78.25 85.75 Wool prices (clean): Dollars per pound U.S. 56's 1.34 1.47 1.50 1.35 Australian 56's 1/ 1.95 1.95 2.05 1.81 U.S. 60's 1.80 1.89 1.85 1.55 Australian 60's 1/ 2.02 2.09 2.18 1.99 U.S. 64's 2.28 2.48 2.55 1.92 Australian 64's 1/ 2.61 2.79 2.87 2.45 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NQ = No quotes. 1/ In bond, Charleston, SC. TEXTILE TRADE ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1997 1996 ------------------------------- Item Feb Mar Apr Apr ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Imports: 1,000 pounds 1/ Yarn, thread, and fabric 207,523 200,932 209,167 171,897 Cotton 72,335 71,723 89,822 70,895 Linen 46,138 34,713 20,995 26,278 Wool 3,584 4,503 5,295 3,740 Silk 692 687 649 680 Manmade 84,773 89,307 92,406 70,303 Apparel 413,651 398,442 413,179 333,652 Cotton 246,315 242,258 245,923 197,358 Linen 10,535 8,237 8,435 6,798 Wool 11,348 10,797 12,898 11,582 Silk 11,677 10,163 11,810 9,232 Manmade 133,777 126,988 134,113 108,682 House furnishings 31,746 30,912 34,168 26,803 Cotton 23,453 23,490 25,146 19,798 Linen 95 120 131 106 Wool 66 105 144 67 Silk 12 43 33 37 Manmade 8,120 7,153 8,714 6,794 Floor covering 23,108 23,551 24,451 21,979 Cotton 4,277 4,876 4,108 4,449 Linen 2,644 2,826 2,916 2,410 Wool 5,730 5,657 6,720 5,911 Silk 434 413 348 236 Manmade 10,023 9,779 10,358 8,972 Total imports 2/ 682,203 659,455 687,867 559,613 Cotton 349,750 345,311 368,579 295,252 Linen 59,440 45,942 32,504 35,616 Wool 20,771 21,105 25,130 21,395 Silk 12,814 11,306 12,840 10,190 Manmade 239,428 235,791 248,815 197,159 Exports: 1,000 pounds 1/ Yarn, thread, and fabric 119,966 130,603 133,208 121,258 Cotton 35,447 42,232 41,560 45,911 Linen 3,520 3,857 4,261 3,372 Wool 3,557 4,379 4,111 3,445 Silk 1,649 1,787 1,753 1,230 Manmade 75,792 78,347 81,524 67,300 Apparel 135,412 149,728 153,478 124,238 Cotton 83,319 92,337 93,872 76,011 Linen 2,060 2,668 2,556 2,056 Wool 5,954 6,576 7,878 4,445 Silk 2,125 2,525 3,197 1,794 Manmade 41,954 45,622 45,976 38,932 House furnishings 5,315 7,594 5,913 5,851 Cotton 3,130 4,491 3,464 3,484 Linen 293 404 248 180 Wool 74 150 121 68 Silk 210 251 205 87 Manmade 1,607 2,298 1,876 2,031 Floor covering 30,014 34,229 33,076 29,929 Cotton 3,154 3,700 3,065 2,805 Linen 1,419 1,450 1,384 1,256 Wool 1,467 1,918 1,656 1,512 Silk 3/ --- --- --- --- Manmade 23,975 27,161 26,970 24,356 Total exports 2/ 291,037 322,575 326,070 281,585 Cotton 125,093 142,833 142,021 128,269 Linen 7,302 8,394 8,462 6,877 Wool 11,067 13,052 13,791 10,492 Silk 7,058 11,621 16,775 3,111 Manmade 143,592 153,733 156,641 132,835 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. Data for 1997 will be revised. 2/ Includes headgear. 3/ Absence of trade. U.S. COTTON TEXTILE IMPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1997 1996 --------------------------- Country Feb Mar Apr Apr ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 pounds 1/ North America 127,646 140,939 141,400 99,147 Canada 9,789 11,681 13,629 8,786 Costa Rica 7,651 7,780 6,380 6,421 Dominican Republic 13,823 15,160 16,231 11,382 El Salvador 10,032 11,741 10,130 6,630 Guatemala 7,223 7,518 6,339 5,477 Haiti 1,110 1,243 1,310 744 Honduras 17,844 19,915 15,964 11,960 Jamaica 6,157 6,800 6,546 6,296 Mexico 51,214 56,048 62,769 38,876 Nicaragua 2,437 2,527 1,540 1,949 South America 6,881 7,398 7,702 9,637 Argentina 13 11 13 123 Brazil 2,358 2,773 2,738 4,233 Chile 192 132 133 550 Columbia 2,352 2,239 2,294 2,354 Peru 1,639 1,822 2,082 1,705 Europe 19,258 20,882 24,089 20,420 Estonia 625 751 818 1,014 France 605 648 599 549 Germany 391 467 466 391 Italy 3,139 3,034 2,849 2,657 Portugal 765 1,267 2,849 1,985 Russia 856 782 988 965 Spain 1,154 807 1,162 1,196 Turkey 8,179 8,880 10,726 8,492 United Kingdom 862 969 732 670 Asia 185,076 164,002 182,327 153,323 Bahrain 778 642 680 498 Bangladesh 14,364 11,727 11,177 5,464 China 28,548 22,473 28,357 17,522 Hong Kong 18,747 12,791 18,881 19,872 India 29,679 30,397 28,950 26,551 Indonesia 12,021 10,114 12,329 8,081 Israel 1,851 1,970 1,886 2,311 Japan 1,190 1,222 1,407 1,222 Macao 3,877 2,620 3,243 2,634 Malaysia 3,355 2,969 3,527 3,466 Nepal 1,440 1,480 1,295 1,197 Oman 1,468 1,627 1,534 1,171 Pakistan 24,606 19,278 24,033 18,693 Philippines 7,380 8,662 7,926 7,885 Quator 1,220 1,025 777 608 Singapore 1,630 1,215 1,246 1,754 South Korea 4,190 5,004 5,330 5,448 Sri Lanka 6,543 7,114 7,188 6,219 Taiwan 10,493 9,145 9,825 11,141 Thailand 7,133 7,297 7,637 6,248 U Arab 0m 2,297 2,541 2,567 2,904 Oceania 701 856 823 1,673 Australia 267 247 395 979 Fiji 303 363 225 489 Africa 8,852 9,995 10,590 9,395 Egypt 4,507 5,240 5,628 4,929 Lesotho 1,044 1,128 1,222 775 Mauritius 1,265 1,109 1,141 1,247 Morocco 456 407 555 408 South Africa 607 1,097 525 747 Tunisia 170 117 229 216 World 2/ 349,750 345,311 368,579 295,252 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding. U.S. COTTON TEXTILE EXPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1997 1996 --------------------------- Country Feb Mar Apr Apr ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 pounds 1/ North America 100,942 112,409 115,503 91,809 Canada 18,610 21,915 21,689 17,555 Costa Rica 8,385 7,052 7,350 5,222 Dominican Republic 13,478 13,657 15,129 11,102 El Salvador 3,198 5,489 5,357 3,227 Guatemala 4,172 4,347 3,526 3,390 Haiti 1,399 1,294 1,447 687 Honduras 13,465 16,335 15,444 9,834 Jamaica 5,543 7,637 7,760 11,335 Mexico 31,405 33,446 36,504 28,408 South America 4,252 5,425 4,755 3,659 Argentina 112 191 151 193 Brazil 1,028 1,165 1,083 385 Chile 367 675 455 633 Columbia 1,254 1,331 1,551 1,659 Peru 157 246 128 155 Venezuela 920 1,128 911 242 Europe 7,727 8,633 8,091 14,722 Belgium 824 1,148 1,467 4,135 France 696 648 468 589 Germany 1,185 1,308 971 1,224 Ireland 138 190 349 2,553 Italy 208 289 261 720 Netherlands 581 562 609 876 United Kingdom 2,270 2,332 2,179 2,979 Asia 10,877 14,308 11,998 16,030 China 57 85 96 217 Hong Kong 838 1,428 1,453 1,329 Israel 1,005 1,536 1,109 1,040 Japan 5,990 7,015 5,414 8,799 Philippines 306 384 340 410 Saudi Arabia 421 922 539 608 Singapore 338 638 456 515 South Korea 450 393 452 763 Taiwan 289 231 252 372 U Arab Em 250 502 601 642 Oceania 754 969 930 1,122 Australia 519 690 441 706 New Zealand 150 203 131 313 Africa 385 838 564 780 Egypt 4 86 8 50 Ghana 22 27 93 22 Ivory Coast 82 108 21 53 Nigeria 41 116 170 102 South Africa 133 110 89 281 World 2/ 125,093 142,833 142,021 128,269 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding. ACTUAL AND PROJECTED COTTON ACREAGE ------------------------------------------------------------------- Projected Projected State/ Actual March June Region 1996 1997 1/ 1997 2/ 1997/1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 acres Percent Upland: Alabama 520 550 520 100 Florida 99 95 110 111 Georgia 1,340 1,400 1,440 107 N. Carolina 721 700 690 96 S. Carolina 284 300 270 95 Virginia 103 105 105 102 Southeast 3,067 3,150 3,135 102 Arkansas 1,000 970 950 95 Louisiana 890 670 590 66 Mississippi 1,120 1,100 980 88 Missouri 390 420 370 95 Tennessee 540 540 510 94 Delta 3,940 3,214 3,400 86 Kansas 5 13 15 300 Oklahoma 290 180 220 76 Texas 5,700 5,900 5,700 100 Southwest 5,995 6,093 5,935 99 Arizona 315 335 330 105 California 1,000 900 880 88 New Mexico 59 62 70 119 West 1,374 1,297 1,280 93 Total Upland 14,376 14,240 13,750 96 Pima: Arizona 42 24 20 48 California 165 175 185 112 New Mexico 14 14 13 93 Texas 37 32 32 86 Total Pima 258 245 250 97 Total All 14,634 14,485 14,000 96 ------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Planting intentions as indicated by reports from farmers. 2/ Total acres planted or intended to be planted. END_OF_FILE