COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK December 12, 1997 December 1997, Issue number CWS-1197 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK is issued monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. This report and the others in this series (FEED OUTLOOK, OIL CROPS OUTLOOK, RICE OUTLOOK, and WHEAT OUTLOOK) are only available electronically; there is no published version of these reports. For further information on our products and services, please call the ERS Information Center at (202) 694-5050. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. Cotton Crop Forecast Unchanged The 1997 U.S. cotton crop forecast was virtually unchanged from November, at 18.82 million bales, and is the fourth largest crop on record. Upland production is projected at 18.29 million bales (14,000 bales below last month's estimate), while the extra-long staple (ELS) crop is estimated at 533,000 bales (down 15,000). The national average cotton yield in December is placed at 672 pounds per harvested acre, the fifth highest yield. However, Mississippi's yield of 900 pounds is a record, surpassing 1991's 888 pounds per harvested acre. Cotton ginnings totaled nearly 14.75 million bales as of December 1, compared with 14.62 million ginned by the same date in 1996. While the U.S. cotton production estimate for December was similar to a month ago, several offsetting adjustments in the Southwest and the Delta occurred. In the Southwest, a 100,000-bale reduction in Texas' upland crop placed the region's total at 5.6 million bales. On the other hand, the Delta production forecast continues to rise, expanding 100,000 bales from November to 5.6 million. Meanwhile, production estimates for the Southeast and West regions were virtually unchanged in December at 4.0 and 3.6 million bales, respectively. Foreign Production and Consumption The forecast for foreign production in 1997/98 was unchanged in December, staying at November's estimate of 71.3 million bales. Foreign consumption was reduced slightly in December, down 200,000 bales to 78.2 million. However, with foreign imports in 1997/98 forecast higher than a month earlier, and foreign exports forecast lower, the forecast for U.S. cotton exports in 1997/98 was raised 100,000 bales to 7.1 million. China's 1997/98 production forecast changed the most this month, rising 500,000 bales to 18.5 million. USDA has steadily raised its forecast for China's 1997/98 cotton crop as the season has progressed, as provincial press reports and good harvest weather have lent credence to government reports of a crop much closer to its 1996/97 level than earlier believed. Production forecasts for a number of export competitors with U.S. cotton were reduced this month, including Pakistan (200,000 bales), Egypt (150,000), Uzbekistan (100,000), Turkmenistan (100,000), Sudan (100,000), and Azerbaijan (85,000). Larger crops were forecast for Syria, India, and Mexico. But for major foreign exporters, losses offset gains in expected 1997/98 production this month by 750,000 bales, and expected exports by major U.S. competitors in 1997/98 fell about 400,000 bales. The forecast for foreign imports in 1997/98 was raised 200,000 bales, to 27.1 million, compared with November's forecast. While the forecasts for South Korea and Indonesia were trimmed due to continued economic difficulties in the region, the forecasts for India and Mexico were raised. The forecast for imports by China--the largest importer--was unchanged at 2.2 million bales. China's production forecast is higher this month, but year-to-year changes in China's import and consumption policies have a larger immediate impact on imports than does production. U.S. Sales Lagging to China, Strong Elsewhere China's purchases of U.S. cotton to date are quite low, suggesting either significantly lower U.S. market share for 1997/98 or a delay in purchasing. Changes in China's cotton policy this year are likely inducing purchasing delays, in contrast to most other countries which are probably weighing their purchases from the United States earlier rather than later. Typically, China's cotton consumers and importers this year are primarily responding to domestic events rather than responding to global market conditions. This year's price reductions for cotton produced in Xinjiang became effective at the beginning of China's crop year (September/August), and were implemented as much to move excess stocks from the previous year's crop as to head off continued buildup in Xinjiang cotton from this year's reportedly large crop. The Xinjiang Cotton and Jute Company has warehouses in eastern China, so movement to mills could be fairly rapid once the new pricing policy came into operation. The excess stocks from last year's crop reportedly totaled something on the order of 2 million bales. Accessing a portion of these stocks is expected to reduce China's imports substantially in 1997/98--a 39 percent drop from 1996/97 is foreseen. Accessing these stocks at the beginning of the marketing year--particularly under circumstances of uncertainty regarding import policy during the rest of the year--probably delayed interest in imports by mills in China. Most importers of U.S. cotton appear to have made their purchases earlier in the marketing year rather than waiting as they did in 1996/97. During mid-December 1996, export commitments equaled 60 percent of marketing year 1996/97's 6.9 million bales. During mid-December 1997, export commitments equaled 84 percent of 1997/98's forecast of 7.1 million bales. During 1980-91, mid-December commitments averaged 77 percent of exports, ranging from 62 to 87 percent. Using the average commitment/export ratio would suggest the United States will export 7.7 million bales of cotton in 1997/98. However, relatively tight beginning stocks in competing countries means the ratio should be above average. Adding 1 standard deviation (8 percent) to the 1980-91 average gives a ratio of 85 percent, suggesting exports close to 7 million bales. But, under a standard statistical assumption of a "normal" distribution for this variable, extending 1 standard deviation above the mean implies that we expect to see higher values only 2.5 percent of the time. Another way to state this is that a ratio of 85 percent would be the second or third highest we could expect to see in 100 years. The factors driving importers to purchase earlier than usual during the 1997/98 season do not warrant such an assumption, and a ratio below 85 percent is therefore more conservative. U.S. Mill Use Unchanged, Stocks Lowered The U.S. cotton mill consumption estimate remains unchanged this month at 11.4 million bales, 2 percent above 1996/97. Based on 3 months of data, the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for mill use has also averaged 11.4 million bales. Actual cotton consumption has surpassed 3 million bales during August-October 1997, compared with 2.9 million a year earlier. While cotton use by mills is running 4 percent above a year ago, manmade use is up 1 percent. As a result, cotton's share on the cotton spinning system so far this season has averaged 78.7 percent. During 1996/97, cotton's share averaged 78.2 percent, the highest in 30 years. Abundant cotton supplies at lower prices this season, coupled with an improving demand for denim and rising textile exports, should result in near-record cotton mill use in 1997/98. Based on the latest U.S. cotton supply and demand projections, total supplies are estimated at 22.8 million bales, while total demand is now forecast at 18.5 million. As a result, ending stocks are projected at 4.3 million bales, 100,000 below the November forecast but 300,000 above beginning stocks. Based on these estimates, the implied stocks-to-use ratio for 1997/98 equals 23 percent, compared with 22 percent last season. Prices Move Lower This Fall Cotton prices have declined this fall as the harvest potential has been generally favorable around the world. U.S. spot prices for base quality upland cotton slipped to nearly 69 cents per pound in November, with the ELS grade 3 spot price holding near $1.00. Since September, however, the average price received by upland producers has remained near 69.5 cents through mid-November. Prices for mill-delivered cotton have also decreased this fall. At the start of 1997/98, mill-delivered prices averaged 77.6 cents per pound and by October, they had fallen to 75 cents where they remained in November. As a result, cotton prices have become more competitive recently, with polyester staple prices remaining stable. Evidence supporting this competitiveness is the rise in cotton's share on the cotton system to nearly 79 percent. Likewise, world prices have declined so far this season. In August, A Index prices were 81 cents per pound, with the U.S. quote near 84 cents. By November, the A Index had fallen to average 77 cents. However, U.S. quotes on the A Index have decreased a similar amount and averaged near 80 cents per pound in November. U.S. cotton, therefore, has continued to be competitive overseas, with export commitments reaching nearly 6 million bales by early December. Textile Trade Deficit Increases Despite Record Exports Textile imports rose to 954 million pounds in September, 5 percent above a month earlier, and only slightly below record shipments during July. Higher imports of cotton textiles, primarily apparel, accounted for 53 percent of the increase. Imports of all major fibers rose in September compared with a month earlier. Higher shipments of yarn, thread, and fabric and apparel more than offset slightly smaller imports of house furnishings and floor coverings. Cotton textile imports, at 496 million pounds, were up 5 percent from August, and were 30 percent above September 1996 imports. On a regional basis, most of the September increase occurred from other North American countries. Higher shipments from major suppliers such as Mexico, Honduras, El Salvador, and the Dominican Republic accounted for the majority of the increase. While textile imports rebounded to a near record in September, textile exports reached a record 386 million pounds. Textile exports were up only 1 percent compared with a month earlier, but were 30 percent above September 1996 shipments. Exports of all textile fibers, except wool, were higher than a month earlier. Also, increases in all major end-use categories, except apparel, occurred in September. Cotton textile exports, at 162 million pounds, were only slightly above a month earlier, but 23 percent above a year ago. U.S. cotton textile exports to North America rose to 129 million pounds, representing 80 percent of total shipments. U.S. cotton shipments to Mexico, at 45 million pounds, were 47 percent above September 1996 exports. The cumulative January through September trade deficit reached 3.98 billion pounds. The deficit for the corresponding period during 1996 was 3.36 billion pounds. Total export shipments, at 3.2 billion pounds, are 27 percent (685 million pounds) above last year. However, total textile imports rose 22 percent (1,301 million pounds) to 7.2 billion pounds from a year earlier. The 9-month cotton textile trade deficit, at 2.4 billion pounds, is 23 percent above 1996. Trade deficits of manmade fibers, wool, and linen have also increased in 1997. Despite record export shipments, the annual deficit in textile trade could approach 5.3 billion pounds, surpassing the 1995 record of 4.7 billion. * * * * * * * * * * N O T I C E S * * * * * * * Because of resource constraints, ERS will publish only 5 issues of this report in 1998. The next report will be released at 4 PM on March 13, 1998. Subsequent reports will be released in May, July, August, and November. We will continue to publish the Cotton and Wool Yearbook, which will be released in late November. This will include both sector data and analysis of critical issues and topics. Check the ERS web site (http://www.econ.ag.gov) for the full schedule and for other publications relating to cotton. If you have questions or comments about this change in our schedule, please contact Joy Harwood, Chief, Field Crops Branch (202-694-5310;jharwood@econ.ag.gov) or Fred Surls, Outlook Program Coordinator (202-694-5320; fsurls@econ.ag.gov). Copies of the 1997 Cotton and Wool Yearbook (CWS-1997) are available for purchase. For information, call 1-800-999-6779. ERS has relocated to 1800 M Street, NW, Washington, DC 20036-5831. The new telephone number for the ERS AutoFax System, which distributes this report and other Cotton and Wool data, is (202) 694-5700. * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * For further information, contact Leslie Meyer at (202) 694-5307 (U.S. Cotton); Steve MacDonald at (202) 694-5305 (Foreign Cotton); or Robert Skinner at (202) 694-5313 (Textiles and Wool). U.S. COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1997/98 ---------------------------- Item 1996/97 Oct Nov Dec ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Upland: Million acres Planted 14.38 13.66 13.66 13.66 Harvested 12.61 13.19 13.19 13.20 Pounds Yield/harvested acre 701 650 666 665 Million 480-lb. bales Beginning stocks 2.54 3.92 3.92 3.92 Production 18.41 17.86 18.30 18.29 Total supply 1/ 21.36 21.81 22.25 22.22 Mill use 11.02 11.19 11.29 11.29 Exports 6.40 6.48 6.58 6.68 Total use 17.42 17.67 17.87 17.97 Ending stocks 3.92 4.13 4.33 4.24 Percent Stocks-to-use ratio 22.5 23.4 24.2 23.6 Extra-long staple: 1,000 acres Planted 258 250 250 250 Harvested 256 249 249 249 Pounds Yield/harvested acre 991 1,053 1,056 1,027 1,000 480-lb. bales Beginning stocks 66 51 51 51 Production 529 546 548 533 Total supply 1/ 595 597 599 584 Mill use 106 110 110 110 Exports 466 425 425 425 Total use 572 535 535 535 Ending stocks 51 72 74 59 Percent Stocks-to-use ratio 8.9 13.5 13.8 11.0 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA estimates. 1/ Includes imports. WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1997/98 ------------------------------ Item 1996/97 Oct Nov Dec ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Supply: Million 480-lb. bales Beginning stocks World 33.83 36.40 36.42 36.41 Foreign 31.22 32.43 32.45 32.44 Production World 89.17 89.87 90.17 90.11 Foreign 70.23 71.46 71.33 71.29 Imports World 28.72 27.35 26.91 27.14 Foreign 28.32 27.33 26.88 27.12 Use: Mill use World 88.32 90.14 89.80 89.63 Foreign 77.19 78.84 78.40 78.23 Exports World 26.63 27.32 26.95 26.72 Foreign 19.77 20.42 19.95 19.62 Ending stocks World 36.41 35.83 36.41 37.00 Foreign 32.44 31.63 32.01 32.70 Stocks-to-use ratio Percent World 41.2 39.7 40.5 41.3 Foreign 42.0 40.1 40.8 41.8 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA estimates. FIBER SUPPLY ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1997 1996 --------------------------- Item Aug Sep Oct Oct ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb. bales Ginnings 376 954 7,001 6,894 Imports since August 1 1.8 1.8 NA 375.0 Stocks, beginning 3,971 2,926 2,572 2,829 At mills 693 687 635 549 Public storage 3,287 2,518 2,114 2,123 CCC stocks 326 170 64 111 Manmade: Million pounds Production 838.5 882.1 892.5 903.4 Noncellulosic 804.8 848.0 859.1 864.4 Cellulosic 33.7 34.1 33.4 39.0 Total since January 1 6,868.1 7,750.2 8,642.7 8,318.3 1997 1996 ----------------------------- Jul Aug Sep Sep ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Million pounds Raw fiber imports 108.0 105.8 111.5 100.3 Noncellulosic 100.6 99.0 103.3 94.1 Cellulosic 7.4 6.8 8.2 6.2 Total since January 1 773.2 879.0 990.5 843.9 Wool and Mohair: 1,000 pounds Raw wool imports, clean 4,876 4,178 4,785 3,140 48's-and-finer 3,051 2,581 2,903 1,854 Not-finer-than-46's 1,824 1,597 1,882 1,285 Total since January 1 43,114 47,293 52,078 61,103 Wool top imports 225 267 239 149 Total since January 1 1,117 1,384 1,622 2,812 Mohair imports, clean 0 0 0 0 Total since January 1 3 3 3 43 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NA = Not available. COTTON SYSTEM FIBER CONSUMPTION ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1997 1996 --------------------------- Item Aug Sep Oct Oct ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb. bales All consumed by mills 1/ 966 1,008 1,040 1,002 Total since August 1 1/ 966 1,974 3,015 2,900 SA annual rate 2/ 11,168 11,568 11,493 10,988 SA daily rate 2/ 42.8 44.3 44.0 42.1 Daily rate 46.0 45.8 45.2 43.6 Upland consumed by mills 1/ 957 1,000 1,030 992 Total since August 1 1/ 957 1,957 2,987 2,872 SA annual rate 2/ 11,061 11,472 11,376 10,883 SA daily rate 2/ 42.4 44.0 43.6 41.7 Daily rate 45.6 45.5 44.8 43.1 1,000 Spindles Spindles in place 5,600 5,628 5,609 6,052 Active spindles 5,326 5,308 5,301 5,561 100 percent cotton 2,637 2,637 2,635 2,572 100 percent manmade 881 849 850 967 Blends 1,808 1,822 1,816 2,022 Percent Cotton's share of fibers 78.3 78.9 78.8 78.1 Manmade: 1,000 pounds Total consumed by mills 1/ 128,167 129,342 134,307 134,567 Total since August 1 1/ 128,167 257,509 391,816 387,653 Daily rate 6,103 5,879 5,839 5,851 Noncellulosic staple 5,439 5,221 5,190 5,124 Cellulosic staple 664 658 649 727 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Adjusted to calendar month. 2/ SA = seasonally adjusted. FIBER EXPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1997 1996 -------------------------- Item Jul Aug Sep Sep ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb. bales Upland exports 476 444 287 158 Total since August 1 6,399 444 731 393 Sales for next season 583 71 3 16 Total since August 1 1,753 71 74 62 ELS exports 24.3 13.8 11.8 13.5 Total since August 1 465.9 13.8 25.5 35.0 Sales for next season 63.0 1.9 0.0 0.0 Total since August 1 204.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 Manmade: Million pounds Raw fiber exports 89.8 89.7 89.5 102.4 Noncellulosic 83.9 83.9 83.5 94.7 Cellulosic 5.9 5.8 6.0 7.7 Total since January 1 676.5 766.2 855.7 813.6 Wool and Mohair: 1,000 pounds Raw wool exports, clean 229.0 460.3 271.1 585.9 Total since January 1 3,504.3 3,964.6 4,235.7 3,897.9 Wool top exports 469.1 908.1 697.9 1,865.9 Total since January 1 4,050.4 4,958.5 5,656.3 8,358.8 Mohair exports, clean 198.1 103.3 283.6 326.9 Total since January 1 886.6 989.9 1,273.4 3,464.5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FIBER PRICES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1997 1996 -------------------------- Item Sep Oct Nov Nov ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Domestic cotton prices: Cents per pound Adjusted World Price 65.40 63.53 62.99 61.22 Mar'98 futures 74.45 73.03 72.18 77.09 Oct'98 futures 75.45 75.51 75.05 77.37 Upland spot 41-34 70.75 69.46 68.90 70.12 Pima spot 03-46 104.50 100.15 100.31 97.87 Avg. price received by: Upland producers 69.40 69.60 69.50 69.70 Mill delivered: Cotton Actual 76.56 74.96 74.97 76.89 Raw fiber equivalent 85.07 83.29 83.30 85.43 Rayon staple Actual 115.00 115.00 115.00 115.00 Raw fiber equivalent 119.79 119.79 119.79 119.79 Polyester staple Actual 71.00 71.00 71.00 72.00 Raw fiber equivalent 73.96 73.96 73.96 75.00 Price ratios Percent Cotton/rayon 71.0 69.5 69.5 71.3 Cotton/polyester 115.0 112.6 112.6 113.9 Northern Europe cotton quotes: Cents per pound A Index 79.53 77.56 77.14 76.18 Memphis Territory 82.50 80.50 79.75 81.81 California/Arizona 84.25 82.25 81.31 81.31 B Index 74.25 73.22 73.65 71.50 Orleans/Texas 78.50 76.30 75.88 77.88 Wool prices (clean): Dollars per pound U.S. 56's 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.25 Australian 56's 1/ 2.03 1.96 1.89 1.80 U.S. 60's 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.47 Australian 60's 1/ 2.10 2.06 2.04 1.89 U.S. 64's 2.55 2.55 2.60 1.90 Australian 64's 1/ 2.62 2.50 2.45 2.25 --------------------------------------------------------------------- NQ = No quotes. 1/ In bond, Charleston, SC. TEXTILE TRADE ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1997 1996 ------------------------------- Item Jul Aug Sep Sep ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Imports: 1,000 pounds 1/ Yarn, thread, and fabric 218,440 205,078 213,156 159,885 Cotton 91,784 86,627 96,672 69,458 Linen 23,701 19,532 19,416 11,564 Wool 4,977 4,281 4,717 2,870 Silk 830 714 802 833 Manmade 97,149 93,924 93,549 75,160 Apparel 662,741 622,448 658,123 502,996 Cotton 379,083 341,458 357,479 269,706 Linen 17,358 16,802 17,347 15,925 Wool 30,875 32,524 33,715 27,115 Silk 11,783 11,562 12,142 10,169 Manmade 223,642 220,101 237,440 180,081 House furnishings 45,379 51,493 50,849 40,721 Cotton 33,110 37,052 36,149 27,984 Linen 234 140 139 132 Wool 160 303 380 122 Silk 49 32 36 101 Manmade 11,825 13,966 14,144 12,382 Floor covering 27,255 25,675 25,481 22,522 Cotton 3,632 4,867 4,370 4,257 Linen 3,819 3,035 2,634 2,591 Wool 8,031 7,051 6,688 5,371 Silk 423 329 447 389 Manmade 11,349 10,393 11,342 9,915 Total imports 2/ 961,635 912,407 954,282 733,840 Cotton 511,067 473,547 495,552 374,851 Linen 45,146 39,554 39,574 30,281 Wool 44,343 44,437 45,744 35,732 Silk 13,086 12,637 13,428 11,491 Manmade 347,993 342,232 359,983 281,485 Exports: 1,000 pounds 1/ Yarn, thread, and fabric 141,481 174,925 177,495 128,022 Cotton 44,129 60,200 58,569 43,121 Linen 3,913 4,549 7,009 3,569 Wool 3,815 4,279 4,163 3,423 Silk 1,430 1,735 1,766 1,683 Manmade 88,195 104,163 105,989 76,226 Apparel 141,047 158,143 158,125 127,493 Cotton 82,963 93,179 94,396 79,925 Linen 1,479 1,743 1,837 2,261 Wool 7,468 8,738 7,807 5,951 Silk 3,404 3,857 3,727 2,433 Manmade 45,734 50,627 50,358 36,923 House furnishings 6,948 8,304 8,734 6,633 Cotton 4,238 4,531 4,838 3,954 Linen 160 449 500 198 Wool 88 236 176 61 Silk 100 200 342 107 Manmade 2,362 2,888 2,879 2,313 Floor covering 37,749 39,478 40,961 34,523 Cotton 3,705 3,557 3,859 4,010 Linen 2,324 2,189 2,245 1,382 Wool 2,458 2,589 3,110 1,758 Silk 164 129 172 --- Manmade 29,098 31,014 31,574 27,373 Total exports 2/ 327,522 381,139 385,669 296,953 Cotton 135,122 161,540 161,760 131,060 Linen 7,886 8,939 11,602 7,422 Wool 13,855 15,863 15,275 11,221 Silk 5,098 5,920 6,007 4,222 Manmade 165,561 188,877 191,024 143,028 --------------------------------------------------------------------- --- = An absence of trade. 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. Data revised for 1997. 2/ Includes headgear. U.S. COTTON TEXTILE IMPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1997 1996 --------------------------- Country Jul Aug Sep Sep ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 pounds 1/ North America 175,721 166,661 177,804 122,661 Canada 10,968 13,727 14,702 10,674 Costa Rica 9,851 8,546 9,289 7,673 Dominican Republic 18,056 16,784 18,665 12,252 El Salvador 12,225 9,815 12,023 9,093 Guatemala 7,980 7,809 7,934 6,497 Haiti 1,935 1,612 2,057 1,080 Honduras 25,541 23,119 24,525 17,688 Jamaica 8,722 7,103 7,272 6,609 Mexico 76,307 74,900 77,491 48,381 Nicaragua 3,651 2,947 3,477 2,135 South America 8,117 8,133 7,961 8,390 Argentina 21 47 38 58 Brazil 2,493 3,402 2,402 3,085 Chile 163 173 259 504 Colombia 2,730 1,975 2,460 2,387 Peru 2,212 2,005 2,296 1,847 Europe 29,593 29,766 29,481 22,638 Estonia 933 182 820 610 France 795 517 489 527 Germany 622 491 649 470 Italy 2,703 2,749 1,856 1,845 Portugal 4,398 5,765 4,394 3,252 Russia 994 1,103 1,274 744 Spain 1,200 2,085 1,394 2,262 Turkey 13,036 12,713 12,946 9,010 United Kingdom 1,146 1,217 1,244 927 Asia 274,308 246,355 255,803 209,187 Bahrain 1,504 1,147 896 850 Bangladesh 18,960 18,179 21,541 13,052 China 49,632 38,896 36,748 35,165 Hong Kong 35,470 28,378 29,706 24,003 India 32,978 31,291 34,370 30,562 Indonesia 18,214 17,103 18,348 13,309 Israel 2,548 2,211 1,606 2,039 Japan 1,412 1,352 1,302 1,153 Macao 6,128 4,827 5,411 4,439 Malaysia 5,442 4,305 4,552 4,717 Nepal 1,057 1,003 1,128 587 Oman 1,446 1,992 2,060 1,530 Pakistan 31,824 33,415 32,798 22,675 Philippines 12,046 9,924 10,469 8,798 Quator 1,949 1,660 1,259 914 Singapore 1,913 2,016 2,114 1,788 South Korea 8,275 7,730 8,913 6,579 Sri Lanka 9,755 8,266 8,606 7,844 Taiwan 15,001 14,595 15,621 13,680 Thailand 10,156 10,637 10,658 8,911 U Arab Em 4,016 2,818 2,392 3,279 Oceania 2,109 1,794 1,870 1,408 Australia 1,092 707 734 665 Fiji 750 755 916 545 Africa 15,811 14,386 16,072 8,379 Egypt 6,662 7,507 7,254 3,218 Lesotho 2,326 1,300 1,844 1,119 Mauritius 1,992 1,574 2,268 1,369 Morocco 775 881 665 741 South Africa 1,840 1,389 1,840 871 Tunisia 166 86 98 97 World 2/ 511,067 473,547 495,552 374,851 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Data revised for 1997. Totals may not add due to rounding. U.S. COTTON TEXTILE EXPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1997 1996 --------------------------- Country Jul Aug Sep Sep ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 pounds 1/ North America 110,371 125,571 128,631 100,091 Canada 19,764 25,875 26,625 19,032 Costa Rica 8,201 8,574 8,538 10,104 Dominican Republic 15,707 15,999 15,081 11,399 El Salvador 4,131 5,555 4,399 2,516 Guatemala 3,741 4,365 4,245 4,117 Haiti 960 1,542 1,677 984 Honduras 14,222 15,717 16,198 12,222 Jamaica 4,063 4,996 6,069 8,166 Mexico 38,227 41,641 44,570 30,267 South America 4,724 6,473 6,426 4,700 Argentina 229 322 248 222 Brazil 619 911 875 510 Chile 367 684 533 1,115 Colombia 1,352 1,472 1,805 1,763 Peru 146 165 136 101 Venezuela 1,361 2,187 2,159 540 Europe 7,264 14,872 13,984 11,355 Belgium 504 6,159 4,249 3,058 France 619 732 429 658 Germany 980 741 2,163 1,382 Ireland 270 461 1,187 110 Italy 285 243 209 292 Netherlands 804 943 598 668 United Kingdom 2,017 3,259 3,015 3,414 Asia 10,920 11,927 9,951 12,945 China 150 491 151 47 Hong Kong 1,615 1,351 1,191 1,367 Israel 1,092 1,249 796 853 Japan 4,027 4,579 4,293 5,546 Philippines 248 935 367 612 Saudi Arabia 613 477 510 479 Singapore 382 610 440 719 South Korea 488 490 359 823 Taiwan 332 366 274 292 U Arab Em 457 324 495 972 Oceania 1,030 1,260 1,111 1,024 Australia 838 1,018 939 678 New Zealand 164 153 105 284 Africa 605 1,193 1,306 804 Egypt 8 65 78 1 Ghana 23 8 12 20 Ivory Coast 28 40 73 130 Nigeria 239 228 162 226 South Africa 115 277 212 222 World 2/ 135,122 161,540 161,760 131,060 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Data revised for 1997. Totals may not add due to rounding. 1997 ACREAGE, YIELD, AND PRODUCTION ESTIMATES ----------------------------------------------------------------------- State/ Harvested Area Yield Production Region Nov Dec Nov Dec Nov Dec ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 acres Lbs./ 1,000 harvested acre bales Upland: Alabama 420 420 571 571 500 500 Florida 100 100 720 720 150 150 Georgia 1,435 1,435 686 662 2,050 1,980 N. Carolina 675 675 569 604 800 850 S. Carolina 285 285 674 674 400 400 Virginia 99 99 601 601 124 124 Southeast 3,014 3,014 641 638 4,024 4,004 Arkansas 930 930 846 846 1,640 1,640 Louisiana 625 625 730 760 950 990 Mississippi 960 960 880 900 1,760 1,800 Missouri 365 375 684 704 520 550 Tennessee 500 500 634 634 660 660 Delta 3,380 3,390 785 799 5,530 5,640 Kansas 14 14 480 480 14 14 Oklahoma 210 210 503 503 220 220 Texas 5,300 5,300 489 480 5,400 5,300 Southwest 5,524 5,524 490 481 5,634 5,534 Arizona 329 329 1,196 1,196 820 820 California 875 875 1,207 1,207 2,200 2,200 New Mexico 66 66 669 640 92 88 West 1,270 1,270 1,176 1,175 3,112 3,108 Total Upland 13,188 13,198 666 665 18,300 18,286 Pima: Arizona 20 20 840 960 35 40 California 184 184 1,148 1,096 440 420 New Mexico 13 13 628 628 17 17 Texas 32 32 840 840 56 56 Total Pima 249 249 1,056 1,027 548 533 Total All 13,437 13,447 673 672 18,848 18,819 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on the December Crop Production report. 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