COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK May 13, 1998 May 1998, CWS-0298 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK is issued five times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no printed copies available. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS o Smaller U.S. Crop and Lower Stocks Projected in 1998/99 o Foreign Cotton Consumption To Rise, Stocks To Fall in 1998/99 o Special Article--California Cotton Planting Progress: Are There Implications for Yield? o Special Article--Growing Demand for Cotton Products in Developed Countries Smaller U.S. Crop and Lower Stocks Projected in 1998/99 The first official USDA forecast, based on the March Prospective Plantings report, projects the 1998/99 U.S. cotton crop at 16.7 million bales. Planting intentions indicated cotton area at 13.2 million acres this spring, and assumptions of average abandonment and yield were made in reaching the production forecast. Projected harvested area of 12.3 million acres is based on the 1988-97 national average abandonment rate, and the projected yield of 650 pounds per harvested acre is based on the 1993-97 U.S. average. If realized, the 1998 U.S. cotton crop would decline 11 percent from the final 1997 production of 18.79 million bales. With U.S. cotton stocks estimated at 3.8 million bales at the start of 1998/99 and total demand projected to exceed production, stocks are likely to decrease next season. In 1998/99, domestic mill use is projected unchanged at 11.5 million bales, as rising textile imports are expected to offset growth in retail cotton consumption. On the other hand, U.S. exports are projected to decline 20 percent to 6 million bales as a result of tighter U.S. supplies and more foreign competition. And with world trade projected near the 1997/98 level, the U.S. share of global trade is likely to fall to around 23 percent in 1998/99. Based on these initial U.S. cotton supply and demand projections, stocks would decline 800,000 bales to 3 million by July 31, 1999, a stocks-to-use ratio of only 17 percent. As of May 10, cotton planting progress was running behind both a year ago and the 5-year average. Forty percent of the crop was planted as of May 10, compared with 41 and 46 percent, respectively, for last year and the average. Cool wet weather in several States have caused planting delays. Perhaps most notable is California, where only 60 percent of the acreage is reported planted, compared with a 5-year average of 91 percent (see special article on California planting progress). Other States that are more than 20 percentage points behind their average include Georgia, South Carolina, and Tennessee. In contrast, four States are running ahead of their 5-year average. These include Texas, Oklahoma, Alabama, and Arkansas. Foreign Cotton Consumption To Rise, Stocks To Fall in 1998/99 While foreign cotton production in 1998/99 is forecast unchanged from the year before at 69.8 million bales, consumption is expected to rise 1.5 million bales to 78.5 million. At the same time, U.S. exports are projected to fall 1.5 million bales, due to both reduced production and increased competition from higher foreign stocks. As a result, the increased gap between foreign consumption and production will be met from foreign supplies rather than from U.S. exports--foreign exports are rising by 1.6 million bales to 20.2 million and foreign stocks are falling by 2.7 million bales. Foreign cotton production should be about unchanged from 1997/98 due to offsetting changes in major foreign producing countries. For example, a record yield in China during 1997/98, combined with an unprecedented reduction in the officially guaranteed procurement price suggest China's 1998/99 crop could be lower. On the other hand, a plunging yield in India during 1997/98, combined with substantially higher prices for cotton in India, suggests India's 1998/99 crop could be higher. In each case, however, there are further offsetting factors that suggest smaller changes for production in 1998/99 than lagged price changes and average yields alone would suggest. Yields in both countries are notoriously hard to predict due to the role of weather in India and the lack of policy transparency in China. During 1981-97, India's yields were about twice as variable as U.S. yields, as determined by a ratio of yield standard deviation and yield mean. There have been occasions in the past when weather-reduced crops in one year have depressed cotton area in India in the next year. The most recent prominent example was a 7 percent area decline in 1987/88 following a 13-percent drop in yields in 1986/87. Yields fell 17 percent in India compared with the year before in 1997/98, the largest such change since 1955/56. The variation in China's yields was only slightly larger than for the United States, but early-season China forecasts published by western observers have fared poorly in recent years. Official statements from China have suggested the government there expects a crop of 18.4-19.7 million bales in 1998/99, and the mid-point of published forecasts by western observers is probably lower. Partly offsetting the negative effect of China's lower cotton procurement price are falling market prices for competing grain crops and a slowing economy which may be reducing returns to horticultural crops and decreasing the opportunity cost of labor. The cotton procurement price in Xinjiang can fall more than the 12 percent decline sanctioned for the rest of the country. But, Xinjiang's irrigation capacity continues to grow, and competing, lower valued crops might not be profitable to ship to eastern markets. Finally, the lack of transparency with respect to China's timeliness of payments to farmers, local taxes, local subsidies, administrative guidance, and lending policies means significant factors can be easily overlooked. China's cotton crop has been below 19.3 million bales only once during the 1990's. In 1993/94, production fell to 17.2 million bales as the preceding season marked the beginning of the North China Plain's bollworm infestation, and grain prices soared following government liberalization in 1993. Consumption Growing Near Normal Rate World mill use of cotton is forecast to grow 1.6 percent compared with a year earlier to 90 million bales, slightly below the long-run growth rate in USDA's baseline forecasts. Since no growth is foreseen in U.S. mill use, all the forecast increased consumption occurs outside the United States. Most macroeconomic forecasts predict negative GDP growth for Southeast Asia and South Korea in calendar 1998, with rebounding GDP growth in 1999. If, however, liquidity problems hinder the recovery of their textile industries, other countries can be expected to benefit from reduced competition from Southeast Asia, suggesting that world cotton consumption will grow at a near normal rate during 1998/99 (see special article on cotton textile consumption in developed countries). Trade World trade is forecast unchanged from the year before in 1998/99, at 26.2 million bales. While U.S. exports are expected to be down, foreign exports are forecast to rise as competitors draw down the stocks built up during 1997/98. China appears likely to be a competitor on world markets in 1998/99, although it is not yet certain if China's 1998/99 cotton exports will exceed its imports. China has moved to reduce its imports in recent months, but will probably continue to permit some joint-venture purchases from outside China, and the use of some imported cotton by state-owned mills cannot be ruled out. The biggest uncertainty is the possibility of further export tenders: how much of the 9 million bales that China added to its inventories from 1994/95 to 1997/98 is going to be consumed domestically, how much will remain in inventory, how much is unspinnable, and how much will have to find another outlet. Mill Use Estimate Unchanged for 1997/98 The U.S. cotton mill consumption estimate remained at 11.5 million bales for this season. Based on data from the U.S. Commerce Department, March consumption averaged 44,700 statistical bales per day, slightly below the revised February figure. On a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis, March mill use equaled 11.40 million bales, compared with February's 11.42 million. However, for the season to date, the SAAR has averaged 11.5 million bales. Actual cotton mill use during the first 8 months of 1997/98 totaled 7.6 million bales. This compares with 7.3 million bales consumed at this point last year when the season's use surpassed 11.1 million bales. Cotton Prices Lower in April U.S. cotton prices moved lower in April with the exception of the ELS spot price which averaged one cent higher during the month. New crop prices averaged nearly five cents lower in April than in March. The December 1998 cotton futures contract averaged only 69 cents per pound in April. In addition, weather-related planting problems may force some cotton producers to an alternative crop, despite recent lower prices for competing crops. This may keep cotton acreage from reaching the March Prospective Plantings indication. The first survey of actual acreage planted to cotton will be published in the Acreage report released on June 30. Textile Trade Deficit Increases in 1998 February textile exports, at 369 million pounds (raw-fiber equivalent), increased 9 percent from January and were 46 percent above February 1997. Overall, textile exports were higher for all major fibers and all end-use categories. Cotton textile exports rose to nearly 154 million pounds, 10 percent above January and 40 percent above a year ago. Shipments to North American countries accounted for 80 percent of the total. Mexico, Canada, Honduras, and the Dominican Republic remained the largest buyers of U.S. cotton textiles and apparel. Compared with a year earlier, cotton exports increased to all other regions except Asia, where lower shipments primarily to Japan limited gains. Textile imports totaled 779 million pounds, down 2 percent from January, but 14 percent above a year earlier. Overall, imports decreased for all major fibers except cotton, compared with a month earlier. Cotton imports, at 436 million pounds, accounted for 56 percent of total imports in February and were 2 percent above January. However, textile imports during the first 2 months of 1998 were 11 percent above the corresponding period of 1997, and cotton textile imports were up 17 percent. Asian textile-producing countries remain the most important source of cotton textile imports, accounting for 50 percent in February 1998. However, North America continues to increase market share of cotton textiles, accounting for 39 percent of all cotton shipments, compared with 36 percent in February 1997. For all fibers, the textile trade deficit during January and February totaled 865 million pounds, 10 percent above a year earlier. The deficit increased for cotton, wool, and manmade fibers. The cumulative cotton trade deficit was 20 percent higher than the first 2 months of 1997. In addition, cotton's share of the trade deficit increased from 57.4 to 65.9 percent. Special Articles: California Cotton Planting Progress: Are There Implications for Yield? by Leslie Meyer The U.S. Department of Agriculture collects and publishes data on the planting progress and condition of major U.S. field crops. Cotton plantings are reported weekly beginning in early April and continue through mid-June for most years. Planting progress for individual States is measured and aggregated for the U.S. total. For cotton, data from 14 States account for about 98 percent of total cotton acreage annually. Past experience suggests that factors which affect the cotton crop as it develops--such as weather, diseases, and insects--inhibit identification of a statistically significant relationship between U.S. cotton planting progress and the national average yield. However, a smaller, more homogeneous area could perhaps permit identification of this relationship. One such area is California, with its desert climate, low abandonment, complete dependence on irrigation, and other similar cultural practices. Even with an earlier allowable planting date this year, cool wet weather associated with El Nino has kept California producers from getting their cotton crop planted in a timely manner. In fact, reported planting progress is well behind what historically is "normal" for California (Table 1). State data from Weekly Crop Progress reports for 1987 through 1997 were analyzed to determine the relationship between California's cotton planting progress and the State's upland yield. Of particular interest are the implications of the planting delays experienced thus far in the 1998 growing season for California's yield potential. A double log function was estimated with ordinary least squares (OLS) regression to explain California yields. The estimated equation is shown in Table 2, where LN(Y) is the natural log of California yields per harvested acre and LN(X) is the natural log of the cumulative percentage of California cotton planted nearest to May 10 of the respective years. The coefficient for the percent planted is positively signed, as expected, and statistically significant. The associated t-statistic is shown in parentheses below the coefficient. The equation accounts for 63 percent of the variation in California's upland yield over the period analyzed. Based on the results of the OLS regression, a projection for California's cotton yield for 1998 can be calculated which incorporates the percent planted as of May 10, 1998, as reported in the Weekly Crop Progress and indicated in Table 1. Inserting the percentage planted into the equation indicates a 1998 average upland yield of 931 pounds per harvested acre. With the standard error of the estimate equal to 0.068596, chances are two out of three that California's upland yield will range between 865 and 997 pounds. While these yield estimates are well below California's 1987-97 average upland yield of nearly 1,200 pounds, a similar divergence from "normal" planting progress occurred as recently as 1995. Cotton planting was also reported only 60 percent complete as of May 8, 1995, resulting in the same in-sample yield projection of 931 pounds per harvested acre. Subsequently, California's final upland yield for 1995 fell within the range noted above, averaging a relatively low 953 pounds. Will California's 1998 upland yield fall within this range? The answer, of course, will not be known for several months. Although many factors affect the cotton plant's development and potential, planting progress in California seems to be a significant factor influencing yield. To illustrate this, actual yields were examined when planting progress was reported 95 percent complete near May 10. During the 1987-97 period, 5 years were assessed to be 95 percent planted at this point of the year. Based on the model presented here, the expected yield was 1,221 pounds per harvested acre, with a standard error around this yield producing a range of 1,134 to 1,308 pounds. Actual yields fell within this range in 3 of the 5 years when planting was 95 percent complete near May 10. California upland yields varied between 1,153 and 1,359 pounds per harvested acre during these 5 years, with 2 years outside the upper bound and having the largest yields on record. Table 1--California Cotton Planting Progress. ------------------------------------------------------- Date 1998 Normal ------------------------------------------------------- Percent April 5 5 18 April 12 6 32 April 19 10 51 April 26 25 70 May 3 45 84 May 10 60 92 -------------------------------------------------------- Normal based on 1987-97 data. Table 2--Ordinary Least Squares Estimates for California Yield Equation, 1987-97. -------------------------------------------------------- LN(Y) = 7.13814 + 0.59198 LN(X) (3.914) R-squared = 0.630 Standard error of the estimate = 0.068596 Durbin-Watson statistic = 1.683 Degrees of freedom = 9 -------------------------------------------------------- Growing Demand for Cotton Products in Developed Countries by Stephen MacDonald While 1997's Asian currency devaluations reduced consumer demand directly in Indonesia and South Korea, and indirectly in Japan, economic growth and consumer demand has been largely unaffected in Europe and North America. Even Japan's economic difficulties are far less severe than those in Southeast Asia, and world cotton consumption can be expected to continue growing during 1998/99. According to forecasts supplied to ERS, real consumer expenditures during 1998 in the United States, Western Europe, and Japan are expected to grow by 3.8, 2.6, and 0.1 percent, respectively. During 1999, the respective forecasts are 2.5, 2.5, and 1.9 percent. Thus, the developed countries as a group remain a growing market for textile products despite the economic slowdown in the developing world. According to the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC), consumers in developed countries accounted for final consumption of about 44 percent of the cotton fiber consumed in 1996/97. USDA data show that textile mills in developed countries accounted for 21 percent of world cotton fiber consumption in 1996/97, with the difference comprised of imports of cotton textile products, largely from developing countries. Consumer demand in developed countries therefore plays approximately equal roles in stimulating mill use in developed and developing countries, and can even offset a slowdown in consumer demand in developing countries. A model for forecasting final consumption of cotton in developed countries (see 1997 Proceedings: Beltwide Cotton Conferences, pages 278-281 for details) suggests consumers in developed countries may increase their purchases of cotton fiber in the form of apparel and other products by 4.1 to 4.8 percent in calendar 1998. The upper end of the forecast range is derived from a fixed parameter version of the model estimated over 1974-95. The lower end of the range is derived from the 1995 values of a version of the model with parameters that vary through time. Consumer promotion and industrial research funded by USDA's Cotton Check-off Program since 1967 are determined to have resulted in structural shifts in demand for cotton since 1974. The income elasticity of consumer demand for cotton changed between the 1970's and the 1990's, particularly in North America. Allowing changing parameters is one way for a simple demand forecasting model to indirectly account for the impact of promotional expenditures. By comparison, in October 1997, the ICAC estimated a 4.0-percent growth rate for developed countries' cotton product purchases in calendar 1997. While Japan's economic difficulties suggest an economy-wide slowdown in consumption in 1998, the United States and Western Europe are forecast to have accelerating consumer spending, and textile consumption in the developed countries should surpass its 1996/97 average. The model uses lagged fiber prices, so a forecast of cotton consumption in calendar 1999 was made relying solely on expected changes in total consumer expenditures, giving a 2.2 to 2.3 percent growth forecast. The average of the 1998 and 1999 forecasts is in the 3.2 to 3.5 percent range. This compares favorably with the 2.2 percent average growth realized during 1990-97, and underlies USDA's forecast growth in world cotton consumption in 1998/99. * * * The next Cotton and Wool Outlook (CWS-0398) will be released on July 13. * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * ERS will publish only 5 issues of this report in 1998. Reports will be released in March, May, July, August, and November. We will continue to publish the Cotton and Wool Yearbook, which will be released in late November. During the months when the Cotton and Wool Outlook are not published, selected tables from the report will be updated and available on the Internet. Check the ERS web site (http://www.econ.ag.gov) for these reports and for other publications relating to cotton. * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Information Contacts: Leslie Meyer (U.S. Cotton) lmeyer@econ.ag.gov (202) 694-5307 Steve MacDonald (Foreign Cotton) stephenm@econ.ag.gov (202) 694-5305 Robert Skinner (Textiles and Wool) rskinner@econ.ag.gov (202) 694-5313 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * U.S. COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1997/98 ---------------------------- Item 1996/97 Mar Apr May ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Upland: Million acres Planted 14.38 13.57 13.57 13.56 Harvested 12.61 13.03 13.03 13.02 Pounds Yield/harvested acre 701 679 673 673 Million 480-lb. bales Beginning stocks 2.54 3.92 3.92 3.92 Production 18.41 18.44 18.28 18.25 Total supply 1/ 21.36 22.38 22.21 22.17 Mill use 11.02 11.39 11.39 11.39 Exports 6.40 7.08 7.08 7.05 Total use 17.42 18.47 18.47 18.44 Ending stocks 3.92 3.94 3.78 3.75 Percent Stocks-to-use ratio 22.5 21.3 20.4 20.3 Extra-long staple: 1,000 acres Planted 258 252 252 250 Harvested 256 251 251 249 Pounds Yield/harvested acre 991 1,027 1,048 1,056 1,000 480-lb. bales Beginning stocks 66 51 51 51 Production 529 537 548 548 Total supply 1/ 595 588 599 599 Mill use 106 110 110 110 Exports 466 425 425 450 Total use 572 535 535 560 Ending stocks 51 63 74 49 Percent Stocks-to-use ratio 8.9 11.8 13.8 8.8 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA estimates. 1/ Includes imports. WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1997/98 ------------------------------ Item 1996/97 Mar Apr May ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Supply: Million 480-lb. bales Beginning stocks World 33.81 36.32 36.26 36.26 Foreign 31.20 32.35 32.29 32.29 Production World 89.18 90.08 89.19 88.63 Foreign 70.24 71.11 70.36 69.83 Imports World 28.75 26.82 26.94 27.02 Foreign 28.35 26.81 26.93 27.02 Use: Mill use World 88.63 88.62 88.20 88.55 Foreign 77.50 77.12 76.70 77.05 Exports World 26.49 26.34 26.36 26.12 Foreign 19.63 18.84 18.86 18.62 Ending stocks World 36.26 37.98 37.55 36.95 Foreign 32.29 33.98 33.70 33.15 Stocks-to-use ratio Percent World 40.9 42.9 42.6 41.7 Foreign 41.7 41.9 43.9 43.0 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA estimates. FIBER SUPPLY ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998 1997 ----------------------------- Item Jan Feb Mar Mar ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb. bales Ginnings 554 0 0 0 Imports since August 1 2.6 2.7 NA 401.1 Stocks, beginning 14,919 13,802 12,128 11,950 At mills 588 624 685 683 Public storage 12,356 11,365 9,824 9,397 CCC stocks 2,092 2,820 2,564 2,231 Manmade: Million pounds Production 901.5 837.6 902.7 850.8 Noncellulosic 867.5 804.6 868.7 805.0 Cellulosic 34.0 33.0 34.0 45.8 Total since January 1 901.5 1,739.1 2,641.8 2,555.8 1997 1998 1997 ------------------ Dec Jan Feb Feb ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Million pounds Raw fiber imports 122.8 126.8 114.3 105.4 Noncellulosic 114.7 117.0 105.4 97.9 Cellulosic 8.1 9.8 8.9 7.5 Total since January 1 1,359.3 126.8 241.1 228.4 Wool and Mohair: 1,000 pounds Raw wool imports, clean 8,584 8,790 5,390 5,767 48's-and-finer 7,069 6,555 3,945 2,144 Not-finer-than-46's 1,515 2,235 1,445 3,623 Total since January 1 76,446 8,790 14,180 15,469 Wool top imports 199 283 60 79 Total since January 1 2,530 283 343 152 Mohair imports, clean 0 2 0 9 Total since January 1 1 2 2 9 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NA = Not available. COTTON SYSTEM FIBER CONSUMPTION ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998 1997 ---------------------------- Item Jan Feb Mar Mar ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb. bales All consumed by mills 1/ 979 897 983 907 Total since August 1 1/ 5,756 6,652 7,635 7,337 SA annual rate 2/ 11,513 11,423 11,401 10,841 SA daily rate 2/ 44.1 43.8 43.7 41.5 Daily rate 44.5 44.8 44.7 43.2 Upland consumed by mills 1/ 969 887 973 897 Total since August 1 1/ 5,701 6,588 7,560 7,267 SA annual rate 2/ 11,396 11,296 11,280 10,720 SA daily rate 2/ 43.7 43.3 43.2 41.1 Daily rate 44.0 44.3 44.2 42.7 1,000 Spindles Spindles in place 5,518 5,459 5,437 5,763 Active spindles 5,209 5,152 5,108 5,437 100 percent cotton 2,605 2,605 2,563 2,584 100 percent manmade 823 788 778 934 Blends 1,781 1,759 1,767 1,919 Percent Cotton's share of fibers 78.4 78.5 78.3 78.6 Manmade: 1,000 pounds Total consumed by mills 1/ 129,451 117,999 130,375 118,401 Total since August 1 1/ 744,064 862,063 992,438 985,614 Daily rate 5,884 5,900 5,926 5,638 Noncellulosic staple 5,371 5,356 5,456 4,988 Cellulosic staple 513 544 470 650 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Adjusted to calendar month. 2/ SA = seasonally adjusted. FIBER EXPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1997 1998 1997 ----------------- Item Dec Jan Feb Feb ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb. bales Upland exports 721 667 718 673 Total since August 1 2,383 3,050 3,768 3,287 Sales for next season 147 63 93 99 Total since August 1 236 300 392 295 ELS exports 53.2 67.0 59.4 55.8 Total since August 1 129.5 196.6 255.8 283.3 Sales for next season 2.4 16.1 11.9 4.7 Total since August 1 11.1 27.2 39.2 23.1 Manmade: Million pounds Raw fiber exports 80.9 85.0 82.6 93.0 Noncellulosic 75.6 82.4 79.1 85.1 Cellulosic 5.3 2.6 3.5 7.9 Total since January 1 1,052.8 85.0 167.6 196.9 Wool and Mohair: 1,000 pounds Raw wool exports, clean 167.9 381.8 30.8 139.9 Total since January 1 4,731.9 381.8 412.6 440.0 Wool top exports 808.0 867.4 271.4 522.3 Total since January 1 8,241.8 867.4 1,138.8 967.4 Mohair exports, clean 393.5 45.3 30.1 222.8 Total since January 1 1,888.7 45.3 75.4 222.8 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FIBER PRICES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998 1997 ----------------------------- Item Feb Mar Apr Apr ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Domestic cotton prices: Cents per pound Adjusted world price 54.69 54.31 51.29 64.68 May'98 futures 67.23 69.11 63.33 77.37 Dec'98 futures 72.13 73.74 68.99 74.54 Upland spot 41-34 63.66 67.04 61.88 69.09 Pima spot 03-46 99.47 101.64 102.57 116.50 Avg. price received by: Upland producers 62.00 63.40 62.40 67.60 Mill delivered: Cotton Actual 69.48 72.95 69.50 75.18 Raw fiber equivalent 77.20 81.06 77.22 83.53 Rayon staple Actual 115.00 115.00 115.00 115.00 Raw fiber equivalent 119.79 119.79 119.79 119.79 Polyester staple Actual 71.00 71.00 71.00 68.00 Raw fiber equivalent 73.96 73.96 73.96 70.83 Price ratios Percent Cotton/rayon 64.4 67.7 64.5 69.7 Cotton/polyester 104.4 109.6 104.4 117.9 Northern Europe cotton quotes: Cents per pound A Index 68.68 68.41 65.08 78.85 Memphis Territory 74.50 75.38 71.75 80.50 California/Arizona 76.25 77.13 72.33 82.13 B Index 66.96 66.98 63.85 73.19 Orleans/Texas 69.25 70.19 66.45 76.25 Wool prices (clean): Dollars per pound U.S. 56's 1.25 1.18 1.12 1.34 Australian 56's 1/ 1.71 1.70 1.71 1.95 U.S. 60's 1.54 1.50 1.50 1.80 Australian 60's 1/ 1.87 2.02 1.80 2.02 U.S. 64's 1.95 1.95 1.88 2.28 Australian 64's 1/ 2.25 2.47 2.05 2.61 --------------------------------------------------------------------- NQ = No quotes. 1/ In bond, Charleston, SC. U.S. TEXTILE TRADE ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1997 1998 1997 ------------------ Item Dec Jan Feb Feb ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Imports: 1,000 pounds 1/ Yarn, thread, and fabric 202,649 207,097 197,240 207,523 Cotton 86,988 85,042 84,309 72,335 Linen 25,089 27,226 23,748 46,138 Wool 4,157 4,494 3,990 3,584 Silk 911 727 695 692 Manmade 85,504 89,608 84,500 84,773 Apparel 482,140 506,145 505,530 413,651 Cotton 288,843 297,480 309,664 246,315 Linen 12,816 16,475 13,840 10,535 Wool 12,308 12,616 12,368 11,348 Silk 11,680 15,272 12,220 11,677 Manmade 156,493 164,303 157,439 133,777 Home furnishings 43,978 47,980 45,180 31,746 Cotton 32,932 36,248 34,858 23,453 Linen 291 123 107 95 Wool 172 85 117 66 Silk 54 35 42 12 Manmade 10,530 11,489 10,055 8,120 Floor coverings 25,461 25,565 24,350 23,108 Cotton 3,927 3,919 3,871 4,277 Linen 3,239 3,215 3,042 2,644 Wool 7,825 8,790 7,212 5,730 Silk 389 335 499 434 Manmade 10,082 9,306 9,725 10,023 Total imports 2/ 760,892 794,594 778,671 682,203 Cotton 416,075 426,899 436,278 349,750 Linen 41,458 47,057 40,785 59,440 Wool 24,587 26,057 23,741 20,771 Silk 13,034 16,369 13,456 12,814 Manmade 265,739 278,212 264,411 239,428 Exports: 1,000 pounds 1/ Yarn, thread, and fabric 146,680 155,831 172,298 119,966 Cotton 48,916 51,616 57,627 35,447 Linen 4,227 3,827 4,516 3,520 Wool 3,783 4,295 4,612 3,557 Silk 1,552 1,345 1,779 1,649 Manmade 88,202 94,747 103,764 75,792 Apparel 122,612 142,489 153,969 135,412 Cotton 72,146 81,153 88,452 83,319 Linen 1,363 1,352 1,543 2,060 Wool 5,947 8,052 8,986 5,954 Silk 3,444 3,706 4,029 2,125 Manmade 39,712 48,226 50,959 41,954 Home furnishings 6,477 5,409 7,298 5,315 Cotton 3,783 3,125 4,417 3,130 Linen 308 324 455 293 Wool 146 81 126 74 Silk 150 156 190 210 Manmade 2,090 1,723 2,110 1,607 Floor coverings 36,882 35,059 35,179 30,014 Cotton 3,522 3,498 3,352 3,154 Linen 2,029 2,162 1,941 1,419 Wool 3,199 2,619 2,968 1,467 Silk 148 156 131 --- Manmade 27,983 26,624 26,786 23,975 Total exports 2/ 312,892 339,090 369,059 252,615 Cotton 128,433 139,481 153,919 110,214 Linen 7,934 7,675 8,463 6,793 Wool 13,088 15,062 16,705 9,296 Silk 5,294 5,363 6,130 3,222 Manmade 158,142 171,510 183,843 123,090 --------------------------------------------------------------------- --- = An absence of trade. 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Includes headgear. U.S. COTTON TEXTILE IMPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1997 1998 1997 ----------------- Country Dec Jan Feb Feb ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 pounds 1/ North America 171,049 132,522 171,327 127,646 Canada 11,985 11,952 15,090 9,789 Costa Rica 8,555 5,819 7,461 7,651 Dominican Republic 20,560 7,989 17,249 13,823 El Salvador 12,725 10,154 12,865 10,032 Guatemala 7,486 5,728 7,920 7,223 Haiti 2,419 1,677 2,368 1,110 Honduras 26,383 17,616 23,233 17,844 Jamaica 7,361 4,174 6,580 6,157 Mexico 70,993 64,204 75,474 51,214 Nicaragua 2,200 2,828 2,650 2,437 South America 8,863 7,747 6,037 6,881 Argentina 123 19 25 13 Brazil 3,947 3,559 1,959 2,358 Chile 97 4 53 192 Colombia 2,227 1,715 2,083 2,352 Peru 1,996 2,139 1,563 1,639 Europe 21,382 26,844 24,684 19,258 Estonia 818 921 686 625 France 704 562 578 605 Germany 673 531 615 391 Italy 3,218 2,900 2,733 3,139 Portugal 2,281 1,539 1,780 765 Russia 675 734 1,115 856 Spain 1,151 782 815 1,154 Turkey 7,643 14,883 12,009 8,179 United Kingdom 911 720 956 862 Asia 195,148 237,305 216,865 185,076 Bahrain 810 1,181 927 778 Bangladesh 12,250 17,455 17,810 14,364 China 21,876 27,015 30,062 28,548 Hong Kong 26,178 33,760 21,714 18,747 India 23,633 24,931 29,534 29,679 Indonesia 12,141 15,982 15,781 12,021 Israel 1,999 3,036 2,014 1,851 Japan 856 864 788 1,190 Macao 4,563 5,700 3,834 3,877 Malaysia 4,546 6,011 3,972 3,355 Nepal 1,209 1,476 1,488 1,440 Oman 1,564 2,420 1,521 1,468 Pakistan 30,950 32,758 34,933 24,606 Philippines 8,529 11,141 8,367 7,380 Qatar 1,209 1,697 1,300 1,220 Singapore 2,276 2,052 2,296 1,630 South Korea 5,589 6,918 5,160 4,190 Sri Lanka 6,433 8,243 7,198 6,543 Taiwan 9,652 11,781 8,488 10,493 Thailand 11,203 13,772 10,436 7,133 U Arab Em 2,018 2,352 2,188 2,297 Oceania 1,794 1,858 1,484 701 Australia 1,063 772 790 267 Fiji 499 774 526 303 Africa 13,085 14,886 11,540 8,852 Egypt 6,461 7,546 6,019 4,452 Lesotho 1,826 2,193 1,263 1,044 Mauritius 1,510 1,708 1,548 1,265 Morocco 1,011 1,104 973 456 South Africa 671 788 362 607 Tunisia 44 30 73 170 World 2/ 416,075 426,899 436,278 349,750 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. Totals may not add due to rounding. U.S. COTTON TEXTILE EXPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1997 1998 1997 ------------------ Country Dec Jan Feb Feb ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 pounds 1/ North America 100,293 112,449 123,135 100,942 Canada 20,388 24,526 26,943 18,610 Costa Rica 7,323 7,056 6,961 8,385 Dominican Republic 9,882 9,474 14,515 13,478 El Salvador 3,532 5,285 6,353 3,198 Guatemala 2,997 2,369 3,333 4,172 Haiti 2,178 944 1,432 1,399 Honduras 12,292 15,202 16,300 13,465 Jamaica 4,111 4,065 4,730 5,543 Mexico 36,283 42,245 41,118 31,405 South America 4,194 5,056 6,577 4,252 Argentina 284 214 232 112 Brazil 361 317 683 1,028 Chile 626 562 2,538 367 Colombia 1,147 1,457 1,464 1,254 Peru 153 83 70 157 Venezuela 939 2,007 1,282 920 Europe 10,928 11,479 12,663 7,727 Belgium 3,319 3,964 3,477 824 France 645 343 319 696 Germany 1,382 1,203 1,174 1,185 Ireland 628 106 946 138 Italy 343 375 472 208 Netherlands 706 618 803 581 United Kingdom 2,486 3,411 3,862 2,270 Asia 10,818 8,808 9,368 10,877 China 542 375 160 57 Hong Kong 1,212 976 2,024 838 Israel 1,647 1,588 1,113 1,005 Japan 3,537 2,973 3,817 5,990 Philippines 582 303 280 306 Saudi Arabia 772 476 260 421 Singapore 565 279 193 338 South Korea 294 235 149 450 Taiwan 308 239 295 289 U Arab Em 479 514 344 250 Oceania 1,040 876 926 754 Australia 783 669 667 519 New Zealand 110 129 96 150 Africa 957 641 981 385 Egypt 31 27 75 4 Ghana 19 27 20 22 Ivory Coast 22 41 30 82 Nigeria 193 72 298 41 South Africa 146 115 175 133 World 2/ 128,433 139,481 153,919 125,093 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. Totals may not add due to rounding. FINAL 1997 U.S. COTTON AREA, YIELD, AND PRODUCTION ------------------------------------------------------------------- State/ Region Planted Harvested Yield Production ------------------------------------------------------------------- Lbs./ 1,000 1,000 acres harvested acre bales Upland: Alabama 535 442 597 550 Florida 100 99 577 119 Georgia 1,440 1,425 646 1,919 N. Carolina 670 665 671 930 S. Carolina 290 285 691 410 Virginia 101 100 659 137 Southeast 3,136 3,016 647 4,065 Arkansas 950 940 859 1,683 Louisiana 630 625 757 986 Mississippi 985 970 901 1,821 Missouri 380 375 723 565 Tennessee 490 480 662 662 Delta 3,435 3,390 809 5,717 Kansas 12 10 418 9 Oklahoma 200 190 462 183 Texas 5,500 5,150 479 5,140 Southwest 5,712 5,350 478 5,332 Arizona 325 324 1,255 847 California 880 875 1,202 2,191 New Mexico 70 66 676 93 West 1,275 1,265 1,188 3,131 Total Upland 13,558 13,021 673 18,245 Pima: Arizona 22 22 912 42 California 185 184 1,141 437 New Mexico 11 11 641 15 Texas 32 32 815 54 Total Pima 250 249 1,056 548 Total All 13,808 13,270 680 18,793 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on the August Crop Production report. END_OF_FILE