COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK United States Department of Agriculture CWS-0398 Economic Research Service ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board July 13, 1998 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS o Cotton Area Reduced Further in 1998 o Lower Production and Offtake Expected o Foreign Consumption and Exports Rise in 1998/99 o Textile Imports and Exports Decline in April o Special Article--China's Cotton Production Falling in 1998/99 Cotton Area Reduced Further in 1998 According to USDA's June Acreage report, U.S. producers have planted or intend to plant 12.9 million acres of cotton this season. The revised area is 300,000 acres (2 percent) below the March Prospective Plantings and nearly 900,000 below 1997/98. The decline from last year is a result of more favorable net returns for some competing crops and this season's unfavorable planting weather in several areas of the Cottonbelt. Upland cotton area dropped 7 percent from 1997 to 12.6 million acres, while the extra-long staple (ELS) acreage jumped 25 percent to nearly 314,000 acres. However, much of the ELS increase was expected to be abandoned as a result of the dry conditions in Texas. For upland cotton, each region indicated a decline from 1997. Based on the Acreage report, the largest decline came from the Delta region, which fell nearly 300,000 acres from last season. The largest percentage decline came from the West region, falling 21 percent from 1997/98. Overall crop conditions have continued to decline over the last 6 weeks and, at this point, are below those of the past 12 seasons. As of July 5, 34 percent of the cotton acreage was in "poor" or "very poor" condition, compared with only 13 percent in 1997. In contrast, only 36 percent was rated "good" or "excellent" this season, compared with last year's 60 percent. While the condition of the 1998 crop is well behind that of last season, the development of the crop is ahead of both 1997 and the 5-year average. As of July 5, 72 percent of the acreage was squaring, compared with 65 percent in 1997 and a 5-year average of 70 percent. Likewise, 26 percent of the cotton area was setting bolls as of early July, compared with 12 and 19 percent, respectively. Lower Production and Offtake Expected The U.S. cotton production estimate was also lowered again this month. The July projection for the U.S. crop is 15.0 million bales, 700,000 below the June projection. The lower crop is the result of lower total acreage and larger than normal abandonment in Texas. With harvested area estimated at just under 11.2 million acres, the national yield estimate is placed at 645 pounds per harvested acre, equal to the U.S. 10-year average yield. On August 12, the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) will provide initial survey projections of cotton harvested area, yield, and production, as well as an update on planted area. With the lower production projection and carryin stocks estimated near 4 million bales, total 1998/99 cotton supplies are expected to reach only 19 million bales, the lowest since 1990/91. As a result of the anticipated tighter U.S. supplies and lower world consumption, U.S. exports for 1998/99 are cut dramatically, while mill use is lowered but to a lesser degree. Exports are projected at 5 million bales, 2.4 million below 1997/98 and accounting for only 19 percent of world cotton trade. Meanwhile, U.S. mill use is projected at 11 million bales, 400,000 below 1997/98. Despite the decline in total cotton use, U.S. demand is still expected to outpace production, leaving ending stocks below the beginning level. Based on these early projections, ending stocks would drop to 3 million bales, or about 19 percent of total use. Foreign Consumption and Exports Rise in 1998/99 Compared with 1997/98, foreign cotton production in 1998/99 is expected to be marginally lower at 71.3 million bales, as rebounding crops in India, Pakistan, and Argentina offset declines in China, Australia, Egypt, and Uzbekistan. Consumption is slightly higher than a year earlier, at 77.4 million bales, and foreign exports are forecast sharply higher, up 13 percent to 21.2 million bales. China accounts for most of the expected 2.4-million- bale jump in foreign exports. In addition to delayed shipments from China's April 1998 tender, a little more than 1 million bales in additional export shipments are foreseen for China in 1998/99. If China continues to import at near the rate realized in recent months, then China could import 1.2 million bales and be a net exporter of 1.0 million bales in 1998/99. China's net trade is forecast to shift from 1.6 million bales of net imports to 1.0 million bales in net exports, a net 2.6 million bale shift. This would be the second largest annual change in China's net trade ever, and would bring China from the world's second largest net importer in 1997/98 to a tie with Syria in 1998/99 as the world's fifth largest net exporter. U.S. exports are expected to fall in 1998/99 to 5.0 million bales due to falling U.S. production, China's trade shift, and the exhaustion of Step 2 funding. Lower exports are also foreseen by Uzbekistan--the world's second largest exporter--as an unusually cool early-season augers poorly for their 1998/99 harvest. Slightly higher exports are expected from the Franc Zone countries, assuming production is essentially unchanged in the region in 1998/99, as larger beginning stocks increase export availability. Finally, Australia's exports are projected down 150,000 bales due in part to lower production. Cotton Prices Rise in June U.S. cotton prices continued their increase in June as prospects for abundant supplies next season have faded. The average price received by upland producers during the first half of the month was 66.5 cents per pound, 3 cents above May. Spot prices for base quality upland rose about 8 cents per pound to 73.5 cents in June, while ELS spot prices remained at $1.04 per pound. Mill-delivered upland prices approached 81 cents per pound in June, the highest since September 1996. Unlike cotton, prices for polyester and rayon staple have held steady. However, the upland cotton user marketing certificate (Step 2) program has allowed cotton to remain very price competitive. As evidence, cotton's share of fiber use on the cotton spinning system has improved this season and has averaged 78.5 percent through May. New-crop prices have also continued higher over the last couple of months. The December 1998 futures contract averaged 75.5 cents per pound in June, 5 cents above May. However, the continued stress on the U.S. crop by early July has pushed this contract closer to 76.5 cents per pound. Textile Imports and Exports Decline in April April textile trade data indicate imports fell 2 percent from a month earlier to 814 million pounds (raw-fiber equivalent). A decline in apparel products more than offset slight increases in all other end-use categories. Lower cotton and silk imports more than offset slightly larger shipments of linen, wool, and manmade fibers. Cotton textile imports, at 443 million pounds, declined over 19 million pounds (4 percent) from March shipments. Cotton accounted for 54 percent of total textile imports in April, compared with 56 percent a month earlier. Total U.S. textile exports also declined in April to 378 million pounds, down 8 percent below a month ago. Shipments of all fibers and all major end-uses were lower in April. Cotton textile exports, at 163 million pounds, were down 4 percent from March. Cotton textile exports represented 43 percent of total shipments, in April, 2 percent above the share in March. Overall, the April textile trade deficit was 436 million pounds, with cotton accounting for 64 percent of the total (281 million pounds). The April deficit increased 31 percent from a year earlier when it totaled 333 million pounds. In addition, the deficit for the first 4 months of 1998 was 1.7 billion pounds, compared with 1.4 billion a year ago. Despite larger exports of cotton, silk, and manmade fibers, stronger growth of textile imports has increased the trade deficit this year. Special Article: China's Cotton Production Falling in 1998/99 by Steve MacDonald A forecasting model for China's cotton production suggests a smaller 1998/99 crop compared with the year before. USDA is forecasting 1998/99 cotton production in China to fall 1.6 million bales from the year before, to 19.5 million. A price-based model used for the following analysis suggests production could even be slightly lower, but the model's specification does not include some factors which are favorable for cotton this year. This model was developed in 1995 to use the price of cotton, competing crops, and inputs to forecast China's annual cotton output. China was divided into five regions, and fixed and time-varying parameters were estimated for the relationship between cotton production and agricultural prices. The form of the model giving the highest production estimate, 19.6 million bales, uses the most recent time-varying parameters (1994) and substitutes 1997 free-market prices for the mixture of government and free-market prices used to estimate the model parameters over 1987-1994. Using the fixed 1987-1994 average parameters and a weighted average of government and free-market prices suggests production as low as 18.0 million bales. The model does not include vegetable prices or labor costs, and recent changes in each have been supportive of cotton production, suggesting the model may be underestimating the crop in 1998/99. Production in every region is a function of the previous year's prices in this model (copy of paper presented to 1996 Cotton Beltwide Conferences available from author). Xinjiang production was modeled as a function of current year prices as well as previous years. On average for China, cotton production is more strongly correlated with the preceding year's price rather than the current year. However, Xinjiang's historical production was more accurately represented by a model that accounted for current year prices. The unusually large role for state farms in the region may account for the difference in price response. Xinjiang Cotton Price Floating in 1998 Since Xinjiang accounts for more than 25 percent of China's cotton production, the absence of an officially announced price floor for 1998/99 procurement in the region adds yet another degree of uncertainty to the forecast. On the one hand, the price could conceivably be quite low, depending on the outcome of marketing efforts for Xinjiang cotton in Eastern China and overseas. Since the original model was estimated on the basis of a single national price, a weighted average of announced purchase prices for Xinjiang and the rest of China was used to forecast Xinjiang production. While producers in Xinjiang might in fact be expecting to be paid less than this average, reports that the region was nonetheless expected to plant expanded cotton area in 1998 suggests that price expectations were not particularly low. Even finding the appropriate 1997 prices for the other four regions of China involves potential pitfalls. Generally speaking, the role of markets in producer decisionmaking in China has grown in recent years. It is difficult to discern changes in the relative weights producers now give to procurement prices and free-market prices when forming their expectations. In calendar 1997, government procurement prices rose for wheat, corn, and rice, but free-market prices fell sharply. Weighing equally the percent changes in government and free-market prices suggest that inflation adjusted price declines in 1997 for rice, corn, and wheat were 10, 4, and 3 percent, respectively. Peanuts and soybeans each rose 11 percent. Cotton procurement prices were officially unchanged from the year before in 1997, and therefore fell only slightly in inflation-adjusted terms. To summarize, the factors favoring cotton production in 1998/99 include falling grain prices in calendar 1997, falling input prices in 1997, falling vegetable prices, and slower economic growth in China. Cotton is a labor intensive crop in China, and for much of the 1990's economic opportunities elsewhere drew farmers to other crops and other sectors of the economy. Factors suggesting lower cotton production in 1998/99 include rising peanut and soybean prices during calendar 1997, a falling real cotton procurement price during calendar 1997 (a first since 1993), earlier than usual flooding along the Yangtze, and an unprecedented reduction in official national procurement prices in 1998. While China has in the past indirectly reduced procurement prices by withdrawing regional bonuses or withdrawing national bonuses of grain, fuel, or fertilizer, 1998 marks the first time the government has signaled producers through a direct procurement price reduction. * * * The next Cotton and Wool Outlook (CWS-0498) will be released on August 13. ****************************************************************************** ERS will publish only 5 issues of this report in 1998. Reports will be released in March, May, July, August, and November. We will continue to publish the Cotton and Wool Yearbook, which will be released in late November. During the months when the Cotton and Wool Outlook are not published, selected tables from the report will be updated and available on the Internet. Check the ERS web site (http://www.econ.ag.gov) for these reports and for other publications relating to cotton. ****************************************************************************** Information Contacts: Leslie Meyer (U.S. Cotton) lmeyer@econ.ag.gov (202) 694-5307 Steve MacDonald (Foreign Cotton) stephenm@econ.ag.gov (202) 694-5305 Robert Skinner (Textiles and Wool) rskinner@econ.ag.gov (202) 694-5313 ****************************************************************************** U.S. COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1997/98 ---------------------------- Item 1996/97 May Jun Jul ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Upland: Million acres Planted 14.38 13.56 13.56 13.56 Harvested 12.61 13.02 13.02 13.02 Pounds Yield/harvested acre 701 673 673 673 Million 480-lb. bales Beginning stocks 2.54 3.92 3.92 3.92 Production 18.41 18.28 18.25 18.25 Total supply 1/ 21.36 22.21 22.17 22.17 Mill use 11.02 11.29 11.29 11.29 Exports 6.40 7.05 6.90 6.96 Total use 17.42 18.44 18.19 18.25 Ending stocks 3.92 3.75 3.95 3.89 Percent Stocks-to-use ratio 22.5 20.3 21.7 21.3 Extra-long staple: 1,000 acres Planted 258 250 250 250 Harvested 256 249 249 249 Pounds Yield/harvested acre 991 1,056 1,056 1,056 1,000 480-lb. bales Beginning stocks 66 51 51 51 Production 529 548 548 548 Total supply 1/ 595 599 599 599 Mill use 106 110 110 110 Exports 466 450 450 450 Total use 572 560 560 560 Ending stocks 51 49 49 49 Percent Stocks-to-use ratio 8.9 8.8 8.8 8.8 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA estimates. 1/ Includes imports. WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1997/98 ------------------------------ Item 1996/97 May Jun Jul ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Supply: Million 480-lb. bales Beginning stocks World 33.76 36.26 36.81 37.02 Foreign 31.15 32.29 32.84 33.05 Production World 89.41 88.63 89.98 90.80 Foreign 70.47 69.83 71.19 72.01 Imports World 29.18 27.02 26.65 26.82 Foreign 28.78 27.02 26.64 26.82 Use: Mill use World 88.24 88.55 88.42 88.13 Foreign 77.12 77.05 77.02 76.73 Exports World 26.84 26.12 26.11 26.17 Foreign 19.97 18.62 18.76 18.77 Ending stocks World 37.02 36.95 38.57 40.11 Foreign 33.05 33.15 34.57 36.16 Stocks-to-use ratio Percent World 42.0 41.7 43.6 45.5 Foreign 42.9 43.0 44.9 47.1 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA estimates. FIBER SUPPLY ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998 1997 ----------------------------- Item Mar Apr May May ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb. bales Ginnings 0 0 0 0 Imports since August 1 2.7 2.9 NA 402.0 Stocks, beginning 12,091 10,231 8,606 8,511 At mills 685 703 733 698 Public storage 9,824 8,187 6,832 6,409 CCC stocks 2,564 2,060 2,453 1,495 Manmade: Million pounds Production 922.6 886.8 864.0 823.0 Noncellulosic 889.8 852.7 831.9 778.9 Cellulosic 32.8 34.1 32.1 44.1 Total since January 1 2,561.3 3,448.1 4,312.1 4,318.5 1998 1997 ---------------------------- Feb Mar Apr Apr ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Million pounds Raw fiber imports 102.2 118.2 118.7 110.3 Noncellulosic 93.3 110.1 111.7 101.9 Cellulosic 8.9 8.1 7.0 8.4 Total since January 1 206.2 324.4 443.1 559.3 Wool and Mohair: 1,000 pounds Raw wool imports, clean 5,390 7,230 7,872 6,634 48's-and-finer 3,945 5,579 5,742 4,608 Not-finer-than-46's 1,445 1,651 2,130 2,026 Total since January 1 14,180 21,410 29,282 23,607 Wool top imports 61 204 218 167 Total since January 1 344 548 766 568 Mohair imports, clean 0 0 0 0 Total since January 1 2,101 2,101 2,101 3,243 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NA = Not available. COTTON SYSTEM FIBER CONSUMPTION ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998 1997 ---------------------------- Item Mar Apr May May ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb. bales All consumed by mills 1/ 972 956 935 979 Total since August 1 1/ 7,625 8,581 9,516 9,290 SA annual rate 2/ 11,224 11,092 11,174 11,200 SA daily rate 2/ 43.0 42.5 42.8 42.9 Daily rate 44.2 43.5 44.5 44.5 Upland consumed by mills 1/ 962 946 925 970 Total since August 1 1/ 7,550 8,496 9,421 9,202 Daily rate 43.7 43.0 44.1 44.1 1,000 Spindles Spindles in place 5,437 5,440 5,451 5,593 Active spindles 5,108 5,154 5,166 5,294 100 percent cotton 2,563 2,637 2,608 2,570 100 percent manmade 778 784 800 896 Blends 1,767 1,733 1,758 1,828 Percent Cotton's share of fibers 77.9 78.1 78.1 77.7 Manmade: 1,000 pounds Total consumed by mills 1/ 132,049 128,517 126,028 134,570 Total since August 1 1/ 994,112 1,122,628 1,248,656 1,253,118 Daily rate 6,002 5,842 6,001 6,117 Noncellulosic staple 5,527 5,302 5,555 5,477 Cellulosic staple 475 540 446 640 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Adjusted to calendar month. 2/ SA = seasonally adjusted. FIBER EXPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998 1997 ------------------------- Item Feb Mar Apr Apr ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb. bales Upland exports 718 822 618 676 Total since August 1 3,768 4,590 5,208 4,739 Sales for next season 93 224 229 164 Total since August 1 392 617 846 616 ELS exports 59.4 65.5 51.4 34.6 Total since August 1 255.8 321.5 372.8 390.2 Sales for next season 11.9 55.0 15.7 18.4 Total since August 1 39.2 94.2 109.9 71.8 Manmade: Million pounds Raw fiber exports 82.6 90.7 91.0 96.3 Noncellulosic 79.1 87.1 88.0 83.5 Cellulosic 3.5 3.6 3.0 12.8 Total since January 1 1,615.0 1,702.1 1,793.1 397.8 Wool and Mohair: 1,000 pounds Raw wool exports, clean 30.8 247.2 23.1 385.1 Total since January 1 382.6 629.8 652.9 1,307.0 Wool top exports 271.4 544.3 836.7 444.4 Total since January 1 1,138.8 1,683.1 2,519.8 2,256.8 Mohair exports, clean 29.9 73.4 336.5 146.4 Total since January 1 75.2 148.6 485.1 592.7 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FIBER PRICES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998 1997 ----------------------------- Item Apr May Jun Jun ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Domestic cotton prices: Cents per pound Adjusted world price 51.29 51.39 55.43 66.66 Jul'98 futures 64.89 66.51 75.91 77.81 Dec'98 futures 68.99 70.48 75.51 74.93 Upland spot 41-34 61.88 65.21 73.50 71.03 Pima spot 03-46 102.57 104.00 104.00 108.07 Avg. price received by: Upland producers 62.20 63.50 66.50 67.10 Mill delivered: Cotton Actual 69.50 71.78 80.87 77.09 Raw fiber equivalent 77.22 79.76 89.86 85.66 Rayon staple Actual 115.00 115.00 115.00 115.00 Raw fiber equivalent 119.79 119.79 119.79 119.79 Polyester staple Actual 71.00 71.00 71.00 68.00 Raw fiber equivalent 73.96 73.96 73.96 70.83 Price ratios Percent Cotton/rayon 64.5 66.6 75.0 71.5 Cotton/polyester 104.4 107.8 121.5 120.9 Northern Europe cotton quotes: Cents per pound A Index 65.08 64.61 68.06 80.84 Memphis Territory 71.75 73.06 80.63 82.50 California/Arizona 72.33 NQ NQ 84.63 B Index 63.85 NQ NQ 79.54 Orleans/Texas 66.45 68.13 75.44 78.25 Wool prices (clean): Dollars per pound U.S. 56's 1.12 1.23 1.06 1.50 Australian 56's 1/ 1.71 1.63 1.56 2.05 U.S. 60's 1.50 1.47 1.43 1.85 Australian 60's 1/ 1.80 1.85 1.64 2.18 U.S. 64's 1.88 1.77 1.70 2.55 Australian 64's 1/ 2.05 2.14 1.79 2.87 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- NQ = No quotes. 1/ In bond, Charleston, SC. U.S. TEXTILE TRADE ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998 1997 ------------------------------ Item Feb Mar Apr Apr ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Imports: 1,000 pounds 1/ Yarn, thread, and fabric 197,240 232,089 240,309 209,167 Cotton 84,309 101,364 101,451 89,822 Linen 23,748 25,502 27,106 20,995 Wool 3,990 4,963 4,533 5,295 Silk 695 744 870 649 Manmade 84,500 99,517 106,348 92,406 Apparel 505,530 519,205 488,204 413,179 Cotton 309,664 318,581 295,775 245,923 Linen 13,840 12,353 11,359 8,435 Wool 12,368 13,659 13,988 12,898 Silk 12,220 11,457 10,143 11,810 Manmade 157,439 163,155 156,939 134,113 Home furnishings 45,180 47,088 49,985 34,168 Cotton 34,858 36,157 38,088 25,146 Linen 107 213 149 131 Wool 117 167 163 144 Silk 42 17 17 33 Manmade 10,055 10,534 11,568 8,714 Floor coverings 24,350 25,206 28,145 24,451 Cotton 3,871 3,390 4,195 4,108 Linen 3,042 3,295 3,496 2,916 Wool 7,212 7,670 9,247 6,720 Silk 499 471 585 348 Manmade 9,725 10,379 10,623 10,358 Total imports 2/ 778,671 829,827 814,084 687,867 Cotton 436,278 463,045 443,470 368,579 Linen 40,785 41,432 42,156 32,504 Wool 23,741 26,485 28,014 25,130 Silk 13,456 12,689 11,615 12,840 Manmade 264,411 286,175 288,829 248,815 Exports: 1,000 pounds 1/ Yarn, thread, and fabric 172,298 186,440 172,322 133,208 Cotton 57,627 58,504 56,276 41,560 Linen 4,516 5,567 5,213 4,261 Wool 4,612 5,948 4,530 4,111 Silk 1,779 1,929 1,755 1,753 Manmade 103,764 114,492 103,764 81,524 Apparel 153,969 175,502 165,349 153,478 Cotton 88,452 102,385 99,332 93,872 Linen 1,543 1,566 1,703 2,556 Wool 8,986 9,853 8,667 7,878 Silk 4,029 3,753 3,742 3,197 Manmade 50,959 57,945 51,905 45,976 Home furnishings 7,298 7,723 6,024 5,913 Cotton 4,417 4,593 3,827 3,464 Linen 455 362 271 248 Wool 126 95 61 121 Silk 190 191 135 205 Manmade 2,110 2,482 1,731 1,876 Floor coverings 35,179 40,527 34,301 33,076 Cotton 3,352 3,950 3,100 3,065 Linen 1,941 2,111 1,635 1,384 Wool 2,968 3,603 3,071 1,656 Silk 131 160 84 --- Manmade 26,786 30,702 26,412 26,970 Total exports 2/ 369,059 410,474 378,383 326,070 Cotton 153,919 169,522 162,621 142,021 Linen 8,463 9,616 8,831 8,462 Wool 16,705 19,516 16,345 13,791 Silk 6,130 6,033 5,715 16,775 Manmade 183,843 205,787 184,869 156,641 --------------------------------------------------------------------- --- = An absence of trade. 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Includes headgear. U.S. COTTON TEXTILE IMPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998 1997 ---------------------------- Country Feb Mar Apr Apr ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 pounds 1/ North America 171,327 195,226 178,772 144,306 Canada 15,090 18,023 16,727 14,539 Costa Rica 7,461 8,979 7,460 6,389 Dominican Republic 17,249 18,337 18,645 16,343 El Salvador 12,856 14,883 13,117 10,290 Guatemala 7,920 9,063 7,653 6,355 Haiti 2,368 2,711 2,689 1,334 Honduras 23,233 28,113 21,402 16,100 Jamaica 6,580 7,525 6,660 6,547 Mexico 75,474 84,762 81,515 64,308 Nicaragua 2,650 2,420 2,489 1,540 South America 6,037 7,898 6,865 7,800 Argentina 24 81 17 13 Brazil 1,959 3,280 2,597 2,823 Chile 53 14 17 133 Colombia 2,083 2,042 2,037 2,300 Peru 1,563 2,050 1,721 2,088 Europe 24,684 30,229 26,703 24,228 Estonia 686 817 986 818 France 578 569 583 611 Germany 615 554 667 501 Italy 2,733 3,236 2,851 2,848 Portugal 1,780 1,566 2,090 2,849 Russia 1,115 918 1,089 988 Spain 815 1,249 1,054 1,165 Turkey 12,009 16,528 13,002 10,787 United Kingdom 956 884 824 739 Asia 216,865 208,672 208,665 184,160 Bahrain 927 736 745 680 Bangladesh 17,810 13,242 12,782 11,190 China 30,062 23,270 25,747 28,566 Hong Kong 21,714 18,822 21,274 19,081 India 29,534 36,327 31,010 29,031 Indonesia 15,781 12,105 14,078 12,351 Israel 2,014 2,759 2,212 1,899 Japan 788 858 1,002 1,410 Macao 3,834 2,979 2,937 3,312 Malaysia 3,972 3,797 4,185 3,619 Nepal 1,488 1,849 1,592 1,297 Oman 1,521 1,539 1,336 1,534 Pakistan 34,933 31,315 33,445 24,077 Philippines 8,367 9,364 9,189 7,963 Qatar 1,300 1,099 1,369 777 Singapore 2,296 1,345 1,780 1,341 South Korea 5,160 6,864 7,271 5,433 Sri Lanka 7,198 7,864 7,079 7,197 Taiwan 8,488 10,989 10,081 10,523 Thailand 10,436 11,611 10,306 7,755 U Arab Em 2,188 3,306 2,786 2,568 Oceania 1,484 2,076 1,939 824 Australia 790 1,213 1,174 395 Fiji 526 507 523 225 Africa 11,540 11,278 14,575 10,622 Egypt 6,019 8,068 8,217 5,633 Lesotho 1,263 1,127 728 1,222 Mauritius 1,548 1,333 1,756 1,168 Morocco 973 1,093 1,464 555 South Africa 362 734 737 525 Tunisia 73 116 74 229 World 2/ 436,278 463,045 443,470 368,579 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. Totals may not add due to rounding. U.S. COTTON TEXTILE EXPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998 1997 ----------------------------- Country Feb Mar Apr Apr ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 pounds 1/ North America 123,165 136,994 135,570 123,201 Canada 26,943 27,281 28,180 25,968 Costa Rica 6,961 5,729 6,629 7,326 Dominican Republic 14,515 16,174 14,699 17,278 El Salvador 6,353 8,347 6,250 5,281 Guatemala 3,333 3,587 3,795 3,430 Haiti 1,432 1,641 1,258 1,426 Honduras 16,300 21,633 18,524 14,979 Jamaica 4,730 4,956 4,177 7,134 Mexico 41,118 46,085 50,553 39,108 South America 6,577 5,560 4,701 5,229 Argentina 232 458 119 204 Brazil 683 631 578 1,098 Chile 2,538 592 476 536 Colombia 1,464 1,607 1,679 1,675 Peru 70 123 99 121 Venezuela 1,282 1,581 1,325 950 Europe 12,663 14,855 11,913 11,889 Belgium 3,477 3,408 2,675 3 624 France 319 510 676 612 Germany 1,174 1,505 1,486 1,115 Ireland 946 1,892 1,683 309 Italy 472 346 302 315 Netherlands 803 1,123 749 717 United Kingdom 3,862 3,880 2,741 3,208 Asia 9,368 10,029 8,583 12,525 China 160 129 140 104 Hong Kong 2,024 1,195 1,245 1,538 Israel 1,113 762 752 1,153 Japan 3,817 4,427 3,526 5,134 Philippines 280 517 359 597 Saudi Arabia 260 460 329 509 Singapore 193 451 314 628 South Korea 149 332 325 560 Taiwan 295 328 400 285 U Arab Em 344 415 281 560 Oceania 926 915 928 1,088 Australia 667 620 766 602 New Zealand 96 113 117 136 Africa 981 923 657 979 Egypt 75 25 12 6 Ghana 20 5 77 71 Ivory Coast 30 65 15 26 Nigeria 298 220 242 161 South Africa 175 294 112 280 World 2/ 153,919 169,522 162,621 142,021 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. Totals may not add due to rounding. ACTUAL AND PROJECTED COTTON ACREAGE ------------------------------------------------------------------- Projected Projected State/ Actual March June Region 1997 1998 1/ 1998 2/ 1998/1997 ------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 acres Percent Upland: Alabama 535 500 460 86 Florida 100 95 90 90 Georgia 1,440 1,350 1,400 97 N. Carolina 670 620 700 104 S. Carolina 290 260 250 86 Virginia 101 95 95 94 Southeast 3,136 2,920 2,995 96 Arkansas 950 830 860 91 Louisiana 630 570 550 87 Mississippi 985 860 930 94 Missouri 380 420 350 92 Tennessee 490 450 450 92 Delta 3,435 3,130 3,140 91 Kansas 12 18 15 125 Oklahoma 200 180 160 80 Texas 5,500 5,600 5,300 96 Southwest 5,712 5,798 5,475 96 Arizona 325 260 250 77 California 880 780 700 80 New Mexico 70 60 60 86 West 1,275 1,100 1,010 79 Total Upland 13,558 12,948 12,620 93 Pima: Arizona 22 15 13 59 California 185 210 185 100 New Mexico 11 12 11 100 Texas 32 30 105 328 Total Pima 250 267 314 125 Total All 13,808 13,215 12,934 94 ------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Planting intentions as indicated by reports from farmers. 2/ Total acres planted or intended to be planted.