COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK August 13, 1998 August 1998, CWS-0498 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board -------------------------------------------------------------------------- COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK is issued five times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036- 5831. Electronic release only; no printed copies available. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS o U.S. Production Lowered for 1998/99 o Foreign Production Steady, Consumption Higher o U.S. Mill Use Reduced o U.S. 1997/98 Exports Raised, 1998/99 Exports Lowered o Textile Exports Improve in May U.S. Production Lowered for 1998/99 Based on USDA's first survey of the U.S. cotton crop, 1998 production is forecast at 14.26 million bales, 5 percent below July's projection and 24 percent below 1997/98. In addition, the latest U.S. crop estimate is the smallest since 1989. Upland production is forecast at 13.8 million bales, while the extra-long staple (ELS) crop is projected at 464,000 bales. During the past 10 years, the August forecast has been below final production six times and above four times. Past differences between the August forecast and the final production estimate indicate that chances are two out of three for the 1998 U.S. cotton crop to range between 13.0 and 15.5 million bales. Compared with last year, upland production is expected to decline in each region, with the largest decrease occurring in the Southwest where drought has taken its toll on the 1998 cotton crop. For the Southwest, upland production is forecast to fall over 2 million bales from last season to 3.2 million, the result of a record high abandonment rate of 36.5 percent in Texas and 37.5 percent in Oklahoma. As a consequence, Texas' harvested area of 3.3 million acres is the lowest in this century, while Oklahoma's is a record low. Meanwhile, Texas' production estimate of 3.1 million bales is the smallest since 1989, and Oklahoma's crop is the smallest of the century. In the Delta, production is expected to reach only 4.8 million bales, the lowest since 1993, but it will remain the largest producing region in the United States. Likewise, the Southeast crop is projected to approach 3.6 million bales, an output near the 5-year average. In the West, the usually stable production of 1.2 million bales has been reduced this year due to the cool, wet start this spring. Although recent weather improvements have helped the crop in this region, the output is forecast at only 1 million bales, similar to the 1995 season. In addition to upland, ELS production in the West is expected to fall from a year ago. Based on the August survey, the ELS crop is projected to decline 19 percent there. Despite an increase in Texas, reductions in the West, where over 85 percent of the ELS crop is produced, have reduced the crop expectations by 15 percent in 1998. While total area planted to cotton (12.9 million acres) is 7 percent below 1997, projected harvested area has shrunk to 10.7 million acres, a national abandonment rate of nearly 17 percent. As a result of the severe drought in the Southwest, the U.S. abandonment rate is the highest reported since 1933 when the rate reached 27 percent. Based on the harvested area, the 1998 national yield is placed at 640 pounds per acre, 40 pounds below 1997 and slightly below the 5-year average. Despite marked improvement in the California conditions, the overall U.S. crop conditions have remained relatively stable and below those in recent history. As of August 9, one-third of the cotton crop is in "poor" or "very poor" condition, compared with only 11 percent last year. On the other hand, only 36 percent of the 1998 area is in "good" or "excellent" condition, compared with 59 percent in 1997. In contrast, the progress of the U.S. crop is running ahead of both last season and the 5-year average. As of August 9, 89 percent of the crop was setting bolls and 14 percent had bolls opening, compared with 87 and 6 percent, respectively, for 1997. An additional indication of the advancement of the 1998 crop is ginnings prior to August 1. This season, 145,550 bales were ginned by August 1, compared with 2,200 last season and 48,150 in 1996. Based on the August production forecast, carryin stocks estimated at 3.9 million bales, and 100,000 bales of raw cotton imports, total U.S. supply for the 1998/99 marketing year is projected at only 18.3 million bales, the lowest since 1985. As a result of the lower crop prospects and rising textile imports, total use is projected to decline substantially from last season; both cotton exports and mill use are forecast to fall. Total U.S. cotton demand is estimated to reach only 15.7 million bales in 1998/99, nearly 17 percent (3.2 million bales) below 1997/98. With these supply and demand estimates, U.S. cotton ending stocks for 1998/99 are projected to decline over 1 million bales from the beginning level to 2.6 million. While stocks are at a similar level to both the 1994 and 1995 seasons, the implied stocks-to-use ratio for 1998/99 is near 17 percent, several percentage points above these two seasons but four points below 1997/98. Foreign Production Steady, Consumption Higher Foreign cotton production is expected to total 72 million bales in 1998/99, virtually unchanged from the year before, while foreign consumption is also expected to be virtually unchanged, at 77.5 million bales. However, foreign consumption is forecast at its highest in nearly a decade as increases in a wide range of countries--led by Pakistan, Mexico, and Brazil--are expected to slightly offset declines in China and Indonesia. Foreign ending stocks are expected to fall from 38 million bales to 35.8 million, but if China is excluded, stocks are rising. Foreign ending stocks excluding China are expected to rise 1 million bales to 20.4 million. U.S. Mill Use Reduced In 1998/99, U.S. mill use is expected to retreat below the 11-million-bale level to 10.8 million bales, 5 percent beneath the 1997/98 estimate. Factors, other than reduced supplies, which are likely to limit mill use this season are expectations for slower growth in the U.S. economy and the continued influences of the Asian crisis, which has provided relatively cheap cotton textile and apparel imports into the United States; liberalization of textile trade under NAFTA has also contributed to increased imports. In 1998, U.S. cotton textile imports are likely to reach new heights, surpassing 1997s 5.1 billion pounds. Mill use for 1997/98 was also lowered slightly to 11.35 million bales as a result of recent Census data indicating the continued weakness in cotton demand, including rising mill inventories. A preliminary estimate for July 1998 mill use will be available from Census later this month and will provide a more accurate estimate for 1997/98. U.S. 1997/98 Exports Raised, 1998/99 Exports Lowered The U.S. 1997/98 export forecast was raised 100,000 bales this month to 7.5 million bales as exporters responded to the high Step 2 payment rates available at the close of the marketing year. According to data in USDA's Export Sales publication, U.S. cotton exports totaled 7.6 million bales. However, the official source for USDA's historical U.S. export data is the Bureau of the Census rather than Export Sales. Census data are currently available through May 1998, and totals 300,000 bales less for August 1997 through May 1998 than comparable data from Export Sales. Differences between these two sources are common for short periods of time, and it seems reasonable to expect that Census data will eventually catch up with Export Sales data. But it seems unlikely that the two data sources will match completely by July given the size of the gap between them and the level of recent monthly changes in the gap. With U.S. exports of 7.5 million bales, the estimated U.S. share of world trade in 1997/98 is 29 percent, the second highest since the 1970s. This is indicative of the changes in the last 20 years in U.S. policies, competitor policies, and competitor economies that have improved the base level of U.S. competitiveness. The U.S. marketing loan program, economic reform in Brazil, and disease and pest problems in Pakistan are among the factors that have allowed the United States to maintain relatively strong exports despite economic problems in importing countries, and are expected to support exports in 1998/99 despite sharply reduced U.S. supplies from the year before. A large decline is foreseen for U.S. exports in 1998/99, down 2.6 million bales to 4.9 million. The ability of the United States to export is constrained by low U.S. production, weak demand in Asia, and China's expected reversion to net exporter status. Exports are expected to fall below 5.0 million bales for only the second time in more than 20 years. Exports are forecasts down 35 percent from the year before, a sharply larger decline than consumption and production. However, U.S. ending stocks are expected to decline 33 percent, about the same as exports, and a relatively tight 17 percent stocks-to-use ratio is expected. This is critical, since tight U.S. stocks are associated with higher U.S. prices, suggesting poorer export competitiveness. However, changes in U.S. agricultural policy since 1985 have significantly altered the amount of stocks necessary to support a given level of use in the United States, so 1998/99's expected stocks-to-use ratio is consistent with the forecast level of exports. And, as mentioned above, the changes in competing countries in the last 20 years also permit the United States to continue exporting as expected stocks/use falls below 20 percent. Exports Compared With 1992 and 1982 The last two times (excluding the policy-transition year of 1985/86) that U.S. exports were this close to 5.0 million bales were 1982/83 and 1992/93. These years were the beginning of economic slowdowns; world GDP growth in 1982 and 1992 was the slowest in at least a decade. And both were years when China was shifting away from importing; China was a net exporter in 1992/93 and became one the year after 1982/83. Also, at 27 percent, expected exports as a share of beginning supplies in the United States (beginning stocks + production) in 1998/99 are projected to be about the same as in 1992/93 and 1982/83. On average during 1982-97, the United States has exported about 35 percent of its beginning supplies. Differences between these years include a stronger world economy in 1998. World GDP growth, albeit constrained by Asia's difficulties, is generally expected to be much stronger in 1998 than in 1982 or 1992 because of robust economies in North America and Western Europe. Thus, increased textile demand in these developed economies offsets some of the losses expected in textile purchases by Asian consumers. On the other hand, the U.S. dollar has strengthened significantly in the last 12 months, which was true in 1982, but not in 1992. So, the macro-economic comparisons between these years are mixed. Because of relatively tight U.S. supplies, U.S. exports are expected to be weaker than the earlier comparison years in several respects. The 1998/99 estimate represents a smaller expected share of world trade than in the previous comparable years and a larger drop in trade share compared with the average of the preceding 3 years. Also, the U.S. share of world (excluding China and the NIS) cotton consumption is expected to be smaller. This indicates that although the current 1998/99 export forecast might be construed as optimistic given U.S. supply constraints, it is nonetheless conservative in its implied performance on world markets, and given current consensus expectations for world economic performance. This conservative approach is appropriate given China's large expected shift net toward net exporting in 1998/99. Textile Exports Improve in May Textile exports rose in May to 390 million pounds. Exports were 3 percent above April and nearly 11 percent higher than May 1997. Overall, larger shipments of all fibers except silk occurred in May. Exports of all end-use categories were above a month earlier with apparel products and floor coverings accounting for most of the gain (42 and 43 percent, respectively). Cotton textile exports, at 168 million pounds, were up 3 percent from April and almost 12 percent above May 1997 shipments. Increased cotton textile shipments to North America, South America, Europe, and Africa more than offset slight declines to Asia and Oceania. Textile imports declined for the second consecutive month to 813 million pounds. Textile imports were 1 percent below April, but 10 percent above May 1997 shipments. Reduced imports of yarn, thread, and fabric and home furnishings more than offset increased shipments of apparel products and floor coverings. Lower shipments of linen and silk textiles offset slight increases in other fibers. Cotton textile imports, at 446 million pounds, were about 1 percent above April and 14 percent above a year earlier. Cotton imports from North American countries accounted for nearly all of the increase in textile shipments. Overall, the textile trade deficit continued to increase during the first 5 months of 1998. The deficit reached 2.14 billion pounds at the end of May, compared with 1.81 billion last year. Cotton accounts for the largest share (66 percent) as the deficit totaled 1.42 billion pounds, or the equivalent of nearly 3 million bales of raw cotton. Despite stronger exports, the textile trade deficit will likely set a record in 1998. * * * The next Cotton and Wool Outlook (CWS-0598) will be released on November 12. ****************************************************************************** ERS will publish only 5 issues of this report in 1998. Reports will be released in March, May, July, August, and November. We will continue to publish the Cotton and Wool Yearbook, which will be released in late November. During the months when the Cotton and Wool Outlook reports are not published, selected tables from the report will be updated and available on the Internet. Check the ERS web site (http://www.econ.ag.gov) for these reports and for other publications relating to cotton. ****************************************************************************** Information Contacts: Leslie Meyer (U.S. Cotton) lmeyer@econ.ag.gov (202) 694-5307 Stephen MacDonald (Foreign Cotton) stephenm@econ.ag.gov (202) 694-5305 Robert Skinner (Textiles and Wool) rskinner@econ.ag.gov (202) 694-5313 ****************************************************************************** U.S. COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998/99 ---------------------------- Item 1997/98 Jun Jul Aug ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Upland: Million acres Planted 13.56 12.95 12.62 12.55 Harvested 13.02 11.73 10.93 10.45 Pounds Yield/harvested acre 673 625 640 634 Million 480-lb. bales Beginning stocks 3.92 3.95 3.89 3.84 Production 18.25 15.28 14.58 13.80 Total supply 1/ 22.18 19.26 18.52 17.74 Mill use 11.24 11.10 10.90 10.70 Exports 7.06 5.27 4.67 4.53 Total use 18.30 16.37 15.57 15.23 Ending stocks 3.84 2.86 2.95 2.54 Percent Stocks-to-use ratio 21.0 17.5 18.9 16.7 Extra-long staple: 1,000 acres Planted 250 267 314 314 Harvested 249 227 230 245 Pounds Yield/harvested acre 1,056 899 887 911 1,000 480-lb. bales Beginning stocks 51 49 59 59 Production 548 425 425 464 Total supply 1/ 599 474 484 523 Mill use 110 100 100 100 Exports 440 335 335 370 Total use 550 435 435 470 Ending stocks 59 44 54 58 Percent Stocks-to-use ratio 10.7 10.1 12.4 12.3 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA estimates. 1/ Includes imports. WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998/99 ------------------------------ Item 1997/98 Jun Jul Aug ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Supply: Million 480-lb. bales Beginning stocks World 37.02 38.57 40.11 40.43 Foreign 33.05 34.57 36.16 36.53 Production World 91.20 86.50 86.32 86.15 Foreign 72.41 70.80 71.32 71.89 Imports World 26.94 26.50 26.35 26.06 Foreign 26.93 26.47 26.30 25.96 Use: Mill use World 88.31 89.50 88.41 88.27 Foreign 76.96 78.30 77.41 77.47 Exports World 26.17 26.20 26.16 25.85 Foreign 18.67 20.60 21.16 20.95 Ending stocks World 40.43 35.57 38.00 38.35 Foreign 36.53 32.67 35.00 35.75 Stocks-to-use ratio Percent World 45.8 39.7 43.0 43.4 Foreign 47.5 41.7 45.2 46.1 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA estimates. FIBER SUPPLY ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998 1997 ----------------------------- Item Apr May Jun Jun ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb. bales Ginnings 0 0 0 0 Imports since August 1 2.9 13.0 NA 402.8 Stocks, beginning 10,231 8,606 7,205 6,901 At mills 703 733 745 702 Public storage 8,187 6,832 5,591 5,138 CCC stocks 2,060 2,453 226 1,298 Manmade: Million pounds Production 886.8 875.9 857.8 810.2 Noncellulosic 852.7 843.8 829.6 775.2 Cellulosic 34.1 32.1 28.2 35.0 Total since January 1 3,448.1 4,324.0 5,181.8 5,132.5 1998 1997 ---------------------------- Mar Apr May May ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Million pounds Raw fiber imports 119.5 127.8 135.0 110.3 Noncellulosic 111.4 120.8 127.4 101.9 Cellulosic 8.1 7.0 7.6 8.4 Total since January 1 324.4 452.2 587.2 559.3 Wool and Mohair: 1,000 pounds Raw wool imports, clean 7,230 7,872 5,858 5,780 48's-and-finer 5,579 5,742 3,604 3,852 Not-finer-than-46's 1,651 2,130 2,254 1,928 Total since January 1 21,410 29,282 35,140 33,995 Wool top imports 204 218 152 163 Total since January 1 548 766 917 731 Mohair imports, clean 0 0 0 0 Total since January 1 2 2 2 3 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NA = Not available. COTTON SYSTEM FIBER CONSUMPTION ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998 1997 ---------------------------- Item Apr May Jun Jun ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb. bales All consumed by mills 1/ 956 934 919 905 Total since August 1 1/ 8,581 9,515 10,434 10,195 SA annual rate 2/ 11,092 11,160 10,937 11,191 SA daily rate 2/ 42.5 42.8 41.9 42.9 Daily rate 43.5 44.5 41.8 43.1 Upland consumed by mills 1/ 946 924 910 896 Total since August 1 1/ 8,496 9,420 10,329 10,098 Daily rate 43.0 44.0 41.3 42.7 1,000 Spindles Spindles in place 5,440 5,440 5,445 5,572 Active spindles 5,154 5,082 5,141 5,301 100 percent cotton 2,637 2,595 2,639 2,596 100 percent manmade 784 800 776 883 Blends 1,733 1,687 1,726 1,822 Percent Cotton's share of fibers 78.1 78.1 78.6 78.7 Manmade: 1,000 pounds Total consumed by mills 1/ 128,517 125,445 119,913 117,418 Total since August 1 1/ 1,122,628 1,248,074 1,367,987 1,370,536 Daily rate 5,842 5,974 5,451 5,591 Noncellulosic staple 5,302 5,529 5,005 5,108 Cellulosic staple 540 445 446 483 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Adjusted to calendar month. 2/ SA = seasonally adjusted. FIBER EXPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998 1997 ------------------------- Item Mar Apr May May ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb. bales Upland exports 822 618 451 600 Total since August 1 4,590 5,208 5,658 5,335 Sales for next season 224 229 353 284 Total since August 1 617 846 1,199 907 ELS exports 65.5 51.4 26.4 31.1 Total since August 1 321.5 372.8 399.3 425.1 Sales for next season 55.0 15.7 13.2 25.6 Total since August 1 94.2 109.9 123.1 98.2 Manmade: Million pounds Raw fiber exports 90.7 91.0 93.5 98.8 Noncellulosic 87.1 88.0 90.0 89.6 Cellulosic 3.6 3.0 3.5 9.2 Total since January 1 1,702.1 1,793.1 1,886.6 496.6 Wool and Mohair: 1,000 pounds Raw wool exports, clean 247.2 23.1 178.4 1,032.4 Total since January 1 659.7 682.8 861.2 2,339.4 Wool top exports 544.3 836.7 375.8 802.5 Total since January 1 1,683.1 2,519.8 2,895.6 3,059.3 Mohair exports, clean 73.4 336.5 96.2 64.5 Total since January 1 148.6 485.1 581.3 657.3 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FIBER PRICES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998 1997 ----------------------------- Item May Jun Jul Jul ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Domestic cotton prices: Cents per pound Adjusted world price 51.39 55.43 56.06 66.80 Oct'98 futures 69.24 76.08 76.31 75.26 Dec'98 futures 70.48 75.51 73.73 74.28 Upland spot 41-34 65.21 73.50 74.18 71.83 Pima spot 03-46 104.00 104.00 104.00 110.50 Avg. price received by: Upland producers 63.50 68.50 68.20 67.50 Mill delivered: Cotton Actual 71.78 80.87 83.62 78.47 Raw fiber equivalent 79.76 89.86 92.91 87.19 Rayon staple Actual 115.00 115.00 115.00 115.00 Raw fiber equivalent 119.79 119.79 119.79 119.79 Polyester staple Actual 65.00 64.00 62.00 68.00 Raw fiber equivalent 67.71 66.67 64.58 70.83 Price ratios Percent Cotton/rayon 66.6 75.0 77.6 72.8 Cotton/polyester 117.8 134.8 143.9 123.1 Northern Europe cotton quotes: Cents per pound A Index 64.61 68.06 69.36 81.47 Memphis Territory 73.06 80.63 81.35 83.70 California/Arizona NQ NQ NQ 85.95 B Index NQ NQ NQ 80.00 Orleans/Texas 68.13 75.44 77.10 79.75 Wool prices (clean): Dollars per pound U.S. 56's 1.23 1.06 1.00 1.50 Australian 56's 1/ 1.63 1.56 NQ NQ U.S. 60's 1.47 1.43 1.32 1.85 Australian 60's 1/ 1.85 1.64 NQ 2.10 U.S. 64's 1.77 1.70 1.70 2.55 Australian 64's 1/ 2.14 1.79 NQ NQ ----------------------------------------------------------------------- NQ = No quotes. 1/ In bond, Charleston, SC. U.S. TEXTILE TRADE ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998 1997 ------------------------------ Item Mar Apr May May ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Imports: 1,000 pounds 1/ Yarn, thread, and fabric 232,089 240,309 219,985 225,808 Cotton 101,364 101,451 94,486 90,209 Linen 25,502 27,106 16,601 36,142 Wool 4,963 4,533 4,345 5,274 Silk 744 870 668 776 Manmade 99,517 106,348 103,885 93,407 Apparel 519,205 488,204 513,119 445,514 Cotton 318,581 295,775 309,517 264,791 Linen 12,353 11,359 10,944 8,967 Wool 13,659 13,988 16,985 14,964 Silk 11,457 10,143 8,833 9,200 Manmade 163,155 156,939 166,840 147,593 Home furnishings 47,088 49,985 44,302 36,537 Cotton 36,157 38,088 33,935 27,409 Linen 213 149 159 146 Wool 167 163 85 74 Silk 17 17 29 32 Manmade 10,534 11,568 10,094 8,877 Floor coverings 25,206 28,145 29,038 24,232 Cotton 3,390 4,195 4,279 4,527 Linen 3,295 3,496 3,926 2,878 Wool 7,670 9,247 9,586 6,789 Silk 471 585 539 482 Manmade 10,379 10,623 10,708 9,555 Total imports 2/ 829,827 814,084 813,358 739,033 Cotton 463,045 443,470 445,732 390,638 Linen 41,432 42,156 31,693 48,154 Wool 26,485 28,014 31,088 27,233 Silk 12,689 11,615 10,069 10,489 Manmade 286,175 288,829 294,776 262,518 Exports: 1,000 pounds 1/ Yarn, thread, and fabric 186,440 172,322 173,515 167,879 Cotton 58,504 56,276 58,585 57,930 Linen 5,567 5,213 5,096 4,489 Wool 5,948 4,530 4,674 3,950 Silk 1,929 1,755 1,793 2,067 Manmade 114,492 104,548 103,367 99,443 Apparel 175,502 165,349 170,244 143,302 Cotton 102,385 99,332 101,578 84,715 Linen 1,566 1,703 1,678 1,674 Wool 9,853 8,667 8,851 7,514 Silk 3,753 3,742 3,359 4,023 Manmade 57,945 51,905 54,779 45,376 Home furnishings 7,723 6,024 6,661 6,474 Cotton 4,593 3,827 3,928 3,924 Linen 362 271 334 267 Wool 95 61 88 98 Silk 191 135 180 133 Manmade 2,482 1,731 2,132 2,052 Floor coverings 40,527 34,301 39,340 39,950 Cotton 3,950 3,100 3,678 3,697 Linen 2,111 1,635 2,004 2,235 Wool 3,603 3,071 3,392 2,452 Silk 160 84 121 127 Manmade 30,702 26,412 30,145 31,440 Total exports 2/ 410,474 378,383 390,026 357,888 Cotton 169,522 162,621 167,836 150,341 Linen 9,616 8,831 9,121 8,673 Wool 19,516 16,345 17,018 14,037 Silk 6,033 5,715 5,453 6,350 Manmade 205,787 184,869 190,599 178,487 --------------------------------------------------------------------- --- = An absence of trade. 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Includes headgear. U.S. COTTON TEXTILE IMPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998 1997 ---------------------------- Country Mar Apr May May ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 pounds 1/ North America 195,226 178,772 193,052 156,272 Canada 18,023 16,727 18,375 13,630 Costa Rica 8,979 7,460 6,786 8,743 Dominican Republic 18,337 18,645 19,820 16,419 El Salvador 14,883 13,117 14,378 11,024 Guatemala 9,063 7,653 7,806 6,824 Haiti 2,711 2,689 2,516 1,235 Honduras 28,113 21,402 25,689 21,541 Jamaica 7,525 6,660 6,053 6,340 Mexico 84,762 81,515 87,967 67,413 Nicaragua 2,420 2,489 3,260 2,575 South America 7,898 6,865 6,317 8,366 Argentina 81 17 14 28 Brazil 3,280 2,597 1,486 3,098 Chile 14 17 22 212 Colombia 2,042 2,037 2,609 2,436 Peru 2,050 1,721 1,771 2,092 Europe 30,229 26,703 25,038 24,391 Estonia 817 986 641 700 France 569 583 437 540 Germany 554 667 519 505 Italy 3,236 2,851 2,628 2,798 Portugal 1,566 2,090 2,889 2,433 Russia 918 1,089 867 1,090 Spain 1,249 1,054 978 1,171 Turkey 16,528 13,002 11,813 10,781 United Kingdom 884 824 929 924 Asia 208,672 208,665 199,922 185,910 Bahrain 736 745 843 486 Bangladesh 13,242 12,782 12,840 11,820 China 23,270 25,747 25,863 34,487 Hong Kong 18,822 21,274 23,704 19,490 India 36,327 31,010 24,293 25,346 Indonesia 12,105 14,078 14,067 12,132 Israel 2,759 2,212 1,952 1,956 Japan 858 1,002 915 1,343 Macao 2,979 2,937 3,994 3,463 Malaysia 3,797 4,185 3,404 3,663 Nepal 1,849 1,592 1,050 901 Oman 1,539 1,336 1,182 1,426 Pakistan 31,315 33,445 32,688 23,662 Philippines 9,364 9,189 8,539 8,226 Qatar 1,099 1,369 1,393 944 Singapore 1,345 1,780 1,635 1,365 South Korea 6,864 7,271 7,452 5,714 Sri Lanka 7,864 7,079 5,789 6,506 Taiwan 10,989 10,081 10,787 10,542 Thailand 11,611 10,306 9,787 7,007 U Arab Em 3,306 2,786 2,089 2,590 Oceania 2,076 1,939 1,589 982 Australia 1,213 1,174 905 595 Fiji 507 523 606 286 Africa 11,278 14,575 14,599 10,231 Egypt 8,068 8,217 7,783 4,908 Lesotho 1,127 728 1,117 1,441 Mauritius 1,333 1,756 1,399 1,428 Morocco 1,093 1,464 1,415 566 South Africa 734 737 842 881 Tunisia 116 74 95 110 World 2/ 463,045 443,470 445,732 390,638 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding. U.S. COTTON TEXTILE EXPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998 1997 ----------------------------- Country Mar Apr May May ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 pounds 1/ North America 136,994 135,570 140,564 119,624 Canada 27,281 28,180 27,444 25,563 Costa Rica 5,729 6,629 7,583 7,070 Dominican Republic 16,174 14,699 16,662 17,306 El Salvador 8,347 6,250 6,364 4,013 Guatemala 3,587 3,795 2,845 3,774 Haiti 1,641 1,258 2,261 1,320 Honduras 21,633 18,524 20,152 12,601 Jamaica 4,956 4,177 4,934 4,562 Mexico 46,085 50,553 50,330 42,139 South America 5,560 4,701 5,088 5,848 Argentina 458 119 269 425 Brazil 631 578 398 555 Chile 592 476 871 884 Colombia 1,607 1,679 1,665 1,775 Peru 123 99 113 262 Venezuela 1,581 1,325 1,280 1,340 Europe 14,855 11,913 12,205 11,471 Belgium 3,408 2,675 3,294 3,517 France 510 676 757 885 Germany 1,505 1,486 1,012 1,302 Ireland 1,892 1,683 880 91 Italy 346 302 566 327 Netherlands 1,123 749 678 740 United Kingdom 3,880 2,741 3,776 2,817 Asia 10,029 8,583 8,112 11,036 China 129 140 279 189 Hong Kong 1,195 1,245 921 1,633 Israel 762 752 705 965 Japan 4,427 3,526 3,131 4,033 Philippines 517 359 389 385 Saudi Arabia 460 329 566 506 Singapore 451 314 357 475 South Korea 332 325 206 526 Taiwan 328 400 250 258 U Arab Em 415 281 249 577 Oceania 915 928 873 1,157 Australia 620 766 620 897 New Zealand 113 117 90 174 Africa 923 657 979 972 Egypt 25 12 6 46 Ghana 5 77 10 13 Ivory Coast 65 15 -- 5 Nigeria 220 242 252 191 South Africa 294 112 150 286 World 2/ 169,522 162,621 167,836 150,341 --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding. ACREAGE, YIELD, AND PRODUCTION ESTIMATES, 1998 ------------------------------------------------------------------- State/ Region Planted Harvested Yield Production ------------------------------------------------------------------- Lbs./ 1,000 1,000 acres harvested acre bales Upland: Alabama 460 455 550 521 Florida 90 80 498 83 Georgia 1,400 1,350 569 1,600 N. Carolina 700 695 640 927 S. Carolina 285 280 550 321 Virginia 92 91 770 146 Southeast 3,027 2,951 585 3,598 Arkansas 860 855 764 1,360 Louisiana 550 540 711 800 Mississippi 930 915 813 1,550 Missouri 350 330 727 500 Tennessee 450 445 636 590 Delta 3,140 3,085 747 4,800 Kansas 15 14 501 15 Oklahoma 160 100 528 110 Texas 5,200 3,300 451 3,100 Southwest 5,375 3,414 453 3,225 Arizona 250 249 1,214 630 California 700 695 1,001 1,450 New Mexico 60 59 781 96 West 1,010 1,003 1,041 2,176 Total Upland 12,552 10,453 634 13,799 Pima: Arizona 13 13 886 24 California 185 184 939 360 New Mexico 11 11 686 15 Texas 105 37 843 65 Total Pima 314 245 911 464 Total All 12,866 10,698 640 14,263 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA's August Crop Production report. END_OF_FILE