COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK November 12, 1998 November 1998, CWS-0598 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK is issued five times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036- 5831. Electronic release only; no printed copies available. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. Cotton Production 30 Percent Below 1997/98 Based on USDA's November survey of the U.S. cotton crop, 1998 production is forecast at 13.23 million bales, only slightly below October's projection but 30 percent below 1997/98. In addition, the latest U.S. crop estimate is the smallest since 1989. Upland production is forecast at 12.8 million bales, while the extra-long staple (ELS) crop is projected at 446,000 bales. During the past 10 years, the November forecast has been below final production six times and above four times. Past differences between the November forecast and the final production estimate indicate that chances are two out of three for the 1998 U.S. cotton crop to range between 12.9 and 13.6 million bales. Compared with last year, upland production is lower in each region. The largest decrease is in the Southwest, where upland production is forecast to fall 2.2 million bales from last season to 3.1 million, the result of record-high abandonment rates. Texas' production estimate of 3 million bales is the smallest since 1989, and Oklahoma's 125,000-bale crop is the smallest of the century. In the Delta, production is expected to reach only 4.2 million bales, the lowest since 1989, but it will remain the largest producing region in the United States. The Southeast crop is projected to approach 3.5 million bales, the smallest since 1993. Likewise, the upland crop in the West has been reduced to 1.9 million bales, about 1.5 million below the 5-year average for the region. In addition to upland, ELS production is expected to fall from a year ago. Based on the November survey, the ELS crop is projected to decline 19 percent from 1997/98. While total area planted to cotton (12.9 million acres) is 7 percent below 1997, projected harvested area has dropped below 10.4 million acres, a national abandonment rate of nearly 20 percent. As a result of weather problems across the Cottonbelt this season, the U.S. abandonment rate is the highest reported since 1933 when the rate reached 27 percent. Based on the harvested area, the 1998 national yield is placed at 612 pounds per acre, 68 pounds below 1997. Despite the late harvest of the crop out West, the early completion of much of the Southwest crop has helped push the U.S. harvest progress ahead of the 5-year average. Arizona, New Mexico, and California, in particular, are lagging behind their averages, while Texas and Oklahoma are well ahead of their "normal" harvest progress. As of November 8, 75 percent of the cotton crop was harvested, compared with an average of 69 percent. In addition, over 55 percent of this season's estimated production had been ginned as of November 1. Nearly 7.4 million running bales have been ginned according to the Cotton Ginnings report as of November 1, compared with 7.9 million ginned in 1997/98, or about 45 percent of that year's crop. Based on the November production forecast, carryin stocks of 3.9 million bales, and estimated raw cotton imports of 300,000 bales, total U.S. supply for the 1998/99 marketing year is projected at only 17.4 million bales, the lowest since 1984. As a result of the lower crop prospects and rising textile imports, total use is projected to decline substantially from last season; both cotton exports and mill use are forecast to fall. Total U.S. cotton demand is estimated to reach only 15.1 million bales in 1998/99, 20 percent (3.8 million bales) below 1997/98. Using these supply and demand estimates, U.S. cotton ending stocks for 1998/99 are projected to decline 1.6 million bales from the beginning level to 2.3 million. While actual stocks are projected at recent historically low levels, the implied stocks-to-use ratio for 1998/99 is above 15 percent, two percentage points above the 1994/95 season. With lower demand expected this season and the likelihood of raw cotton imports both before and after July 31, 1999, larger carryover supplies are not needed to bridge the gap to next season's harvest. U.S. Mill Use To Decline This Season In 1998/99, U.S. mill use is expected to fall 7 percent from 1997/98 to 10.6 million bales. The realization of reduced U.S. supplies, slower growth in the U.S. economy, and the continued influx of relatively cheap cotton textile and apparel imports into the United States are likely to weigh on domestic mill use throughout the season. Census mill use data for the first two months of 1998/99 reveal the pace of U.S. mill consumption is running at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of about 10.7 million bales. Actual consumption is reported at 1.8 million bales, compared with 2 million last season at this time. Foreign Cotton Consumption and Production Smaller in 1998/99 Foreign cotton consumption is expected to reach 76 million bales in 1998/99, while foreign production is forecast to reach 70.5 million bales. Compared with a month earlier, the consumption forecast is virtually the same as in October, but production is forecast 1 million bales lower. Foreign consumption and production in 1998/99 are each forecast below the year before: consumption 1 million bales lower, and production about 2 million bales lower. Consumption is expected to decline in part due to the lingering effects of Asia's financial problems, and the reduced foreign production outlook mainly reflects smaller crops in China and Uzbekistan. World cotton trade is expected to reach 25 million bales in 1998/99, while foreign exports are forecast to reach 20.5 million bales. Compared with a month earlier, the world trade forecast is the same as in October, but foreign exports are forecast 200,000 bales lower. World trade in 1998/99 is forecast below the year before, while foreign exports are higher: world trade is 1.3 million bales lower, and foreign exports are up 1.7 million bales. All of this year's increase in foreign exports can be attributed to China, whose exports are expected to rise 1.8 million bales, from virtually nothing In 1997/98. Foreign cotton ending stocks are expected to reach 35 million bales in 1998/99. Compared with a month earlier, the foreign ending stocks forecast is about 1 million bales lower than in October. Foreign ending stocks in 1998/99 are expected to total 1.2 million bales below the year before. Excluding China, foreign cotton ending stocks are expected to reach 20.2 million bales in 1998/99. Compared with a month earlier, the estimate is down about 700,000 bales. Foreign (excluding China) ending stocks in 1998/99 are forecast about 900,000 bales higher than the year before. The ratio of foreign (excluding China) ending stocks to consumption in 1998/99 is forecast at 36 percent. Compared with a month earlier, this estimate is about 1.2 percentage points lower. Foreign (excluding China) stocks/consumption in 1998/99 is forecast 1.6 percentage points above the year before, and at its highest since 1992/93. Foreign Production Forecast Shrinking This Month Smaller-than-expected recent arrivals of raw cotton in Uzbekistan have suggested that early-season coolness reduced yield more than previously expected. Uzbekistan's 1998/99 production forecast was reduced 400,000 bales to 4.6 million bales. While area is unchanged both from last month and last year, at 1.5 million hectares, production is now down substantially from 1997/98's 5.3 million bales. Average maximum temperatures during the first half of June were among the lowest of the last 15 years, and the beneficial effects of increased use of plastic sheeting and a reduced need for replanting have proven less offsetting than was previously expected. Similarly, 1998/99 production estimates for nearby Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan were trimmed by 50,000 and 100,000 bales, respectively. Tanzania's and Sudan's governments reported forecasts below USDA's October estimates by 90,000 and 200,000 bales respectively. Weather damage cut Tanzania's crop, while Sudan's producers reduced planted area in response to expectations of poor economic returns. Argentina's and Paraguay's 1998/99 forecasts were reduced 100,000 and 50,000 bales, respectively. Weather and economic factors in the region suggest that relatively slow planting progress to date will not likely be completely overcome over the next month. Argentina's 1998/99 crop is still forecast above its flood-reduced 1997/98 level, but no increase is expected in Paraguay compared with the year before, despite another year of government efforts to increase production. Foreign Consumption Stable Weaker prospects in Turkey led to a decline in 1998/99 expected consumption of 400,000 bales compared with USDA's October 1998 estimate. Textile industry representatives have indicated that Asian competitors have recently captured a larger share of the Turkish industry's markets. Exports account for a significant share of Turkey's textile & apparel marketings, and although exports rose during the first 9 months of calender 1998, Turkey's Textile Industrialists Association has forecast a decline in the near future. USDA is now forecasting Turkey's 1998/99 cotton consumption at 4.8 million bales, down 4 percent from its 1997/98 volume. There was little change in the forecast of total foreign consumption in 1998/99 this month due to offsetting increases outside of Turkey. In Southeast Asia and South Korea, cotton imports in recent months have surpassed amounts consistent with USDA's October consumption estimates for 1997/98 and forecasts for 1998/99. It is unlikely that these countries would import to build stocks appreciably in the face of their widely publicized financial adversity, so 1997/98 consumption was increased 50,000 bales each in Indonesia and Thailand, and 75,000 bales in Korea. Higher 1997/98 consumption also implied 1998/99 consumption could be higher than previously forecast. In Indonesia's case, the 1998/99 consumption forecast was increased 150,000 bales, to 1.9 million bales, about the same as in 1997/98. In recent months, Indonesia has been importing at about the same rate as in 1997/98, suggesting that last month's forecast of falling consumption was incorrect. Both Southeast Asian and South Korean textile mills are now expected to consume approximately the same amount of cotton in 1998/99 as in 1997/98. With this month's 1997/98 revisions, USDA's estimate for Southeast Asia's cotton consumption in the first year affected by the Asian financial crisis is 4 million bales. This is 500,000 bales less than Southeast Asian mills consumed in 1996/97, due to reduced purchasing power by domestic consumers in the region, and, probably, disruption of exporting during periods of civil disorder and upward spikes in local interest rates. However, this is USDA's third upward revision since August in its 1997/98 consumption estimate for the region. In retrospect, widely publicized assertions by industry officials and other observers in those countries have proven too pessimistic. USDA's current estimate for 1997/98 consumption in Southeast Asia is its highest since January 1998, and its estimate for 1997/98 consumption in South Korea is its highest since November 1997. U.S. Textile Trade Deficit Continues To Widen U.S. Textile imports declined slightly in August to 1.07 billion pounds, 3 percent below July shipments. Lower imports of all fibers, except linen, and all end-use categories, except floor coverings, occurred in August. Cotton textile imports, at 579 million pounds, were 5 percent below July, but nearly 22 percent above a year earlier. Cotton imports from Asia declined to 291 million pounds, compared with 304 million in July. Imports from North America also dropped in August to 220 million pounds, with shipments from Mexico accounting for 101 million. Textile exports rose to 390 million pounds in August, the largest shipments since last March. Exports of all fibers, except silk, and all end-use categories, except home furnishings, were larger than a month earlier. However, only August apparel exports were above shipments of a year ago. Cotton textile exports, at 175 million pounds, were 8 percent above a month earlier and August 1997. Cotton textile shipments to North America increased nearly 13 million pounds to 151 million, with Mexico accounting for 35 percent of the total. Overall, the U.S. textile trade deficit continued to increase during the first 8 months of 1998. The deficit reached 4.19 billion pounds at the end of August, compared with 3.41 billion last year. Cotton accounts for the largest share (64 percent) as the deficit totaled 2.66 billion pounds, or the equivalent of 5.5 million bales of raw cotton. Despite larger exports of cotton and other textile fibers, the trade deficit for cotton and total fibers will likely reach a record in 1998. * * * The Cotton and Wool Yearbook summary (CWS-0698) will be released on November 23, with printed copies of the report (CWS-1998) available for purchase in December. ************************************************************************** ERS published only 5 issues of this report in 1998. Reports were released in March, May, July, August, and November. The release schedule for 1999 has not yet been finalized. Check the ERS web site (http://www.econ.ag.gov) for these reports and for other publications relating to cotton. ************************************************************************** Information Contacts: Leslie Meyer (U.S. Cotton) lmeyer@econ.ag.gov (202) 694-5307 Steve MacDonald (Foreign Cotton) stephenm@econ.ag.gov (202) 694-5305 Robert Skinner (Textiles and Wool) rskinner@econ.ag.gov (202) 694-5313 ************************************************************************** U.S. COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998/99 ---------------------------- Item 1997/98 Sep Oct Nov ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Upland: Million acres Planted 13.558 12.552 12.552 12.552 Harvested 13.021 10.358 10.108 10.128 Pounds Yield/harvested acre 673 607 609 606 Million 480-lb. bales Beginning stocks 3.920 3.813 3.822 3.822 Production 18.245 13.101 12.827 12.785 Total supply 1/ 22.178 17.214 16.949 16.907 Mill use 11.234 10.600 10.500 10.500 Exports 7.060 4.240 4.150 4.160 Total use 18.294 14.840 14.640 14.660 Ending stocks 3.822 2.328 2.269 2.224 Percent Stocks-to-use ratio 20.9 15.7 15.5 15.2 Extra-long staple: 1,000 acres Planted 250 314 314 314 Harvested 249 247 247 247 Pounds Yield/harvested acre 1,056 900 899 868 1,000 480-lb. bales Beginning stocks 51 65 65 65 Production 548 462 461 446 Total supply 1/ 599 527 526 511 Mill use 115 100 100 100 Exports 440 360 350 340 Total use 555 460 450 440 Ending stocks 65 72 81 76 Percent Stocks-to-use ratio 11.7 15.7 18.0 17.3 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA estimates. 1/ Includes imports. WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998/99 ------------------------------ Item 1997/98 Sep Oct Nov ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Supply: Million 480-lb. bales Beginning stocks World 36.68 40.51 40.48 40.12 Foreign 32.71 36.64 36.59 36.24 Production World 91.17 85.34 84.78 83.69 Foreign 72.37 71.77 71.49 70.45 Imports World 27.08 25.86 25.26 25.19 Foreign 27.07 25.56 24.96 24.89 Use: Mill use World 88.24 88.00 86.64 86.45 Foreign 76.89 77.30 76.04 75.85 Exports World 26.31 25.68 25.16 24.96 Foreign 18.81 21.08 20.66 20.46 Ending stocks World 40.12 37.76 38.48 37.34 Foreign 36.24 35.36 36.13 35.04 Stocks-to-use ratio Percent World 45.5 42.9 44.4 43.2 Foreign 47.1 45.7 47.5 46.2 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA estimates. FIBER SUPPLY ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998 1997 ----------------------------- Item Jul Aug Sep Sep ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb. bales Ginnings 0 538 1,572 954 Imports since August 1 13.4 0 NA 1.8 Stocks, beginning 5,712 3,887 3,094 2,926 At mills 757 760 722 687 Public storage 4,239 3,270 2,625 2,518 CCC stocks 111 64 51 170 Manmade: Million pounds Production 869.7 843.3 851.5 882.1 Noncellulosic 839.1 813.0 823.7 848.0 Cellulosic 30.6 30.3 27.8 34.1 Total since January 1 6,165.8 7,009.1 7,860.6 7,750.2 1998 1997 ---------------------------- Jun Jul Aug Aug ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Million pounds Raw fiber imports 130.2 126.6 120.8 105.8 Noncellulosic 123.7 119.7 114.4 99.0 Cellulosic 6.5 6.9 6.4 6.8 Total since January 1 1,001.1 1,127.7 1,248.5 879.0 Wool and Mohair: 1,000 pounds Raw wool imports, clean 5,493 5,728 4,352 4,178 48's-and-finer 2,977 2,947 2,081 2,581 Not-finer-than-46's 2,516 2,781 2,271 1,597 Total since January 1 40,633 46,361 50,714 47,293 Wool top imports 255 287 313 267 Total since January 1 1,142 1,429 1,742 1,384 Mohair imports, clean 0 0 0 0 Total since January 1 2 2 2 3 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NA = Not available. COTTON SYSTEM FIBER CONSUMPTION ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998 1997 ---------------------------- Item Jul Aug Sep Sep ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb. bales All consumed by mills 1/ 915 929 919 1,008 Total since August 1 1/ 11,349 929 1,849 1,974 SA annual rate 2/ 11,369 10,720 10,620 11,583 SA daily rate 2/ 43.6 41.2 40.8 44.4 Daily rate 39.8 44.2 41.8 45.8 Upland consumed by mills 1/ 905 918 907 1,000 Total since August 1 1/ 11,234 918 1,826 1,957 Daily rate 1,000 Spindles Spindles in place 5,416 5,483 5,504 5,628 Active spindles 5,059 5,134 5,138 5,308 100 percent cotton 2,585 2,651 2,658 2,637 100 percent manmade 772 781 776 849 Blends 1,702 1,702 1,704 1,822 Percent Cotton's share of fibers 78.5 78.7 79.1 78.9 Manmade: 1,000 pounds Total consumed by mills 1/ 120,466 120,895 116,330 129,342 Total since August 1 1/ 1,489,039 120,895 237,225 257,509 Daily rate 5,238 5,757 5,288 5,879 Noncellulosic staple 4,783 5,287 4,814 5,221 Cellulosic staple 455 470 474 658 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Adjusted to calendar month. 2/ SA = seasonally adjusted. FIBER EXPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998 1997 ------------------------- Item Jun Jul Aug Aug ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb. bales Upland exports 552 552 393 444 Total since August 1 6,508 7,060 393 444 Sales for next season 275 96 83 70 Total since August 1 1,474 1,570 83 70 ELS exports 21.2 19.1 9.7 13.6 Total since August 1 420.5 439.6 9.7 13.6 Sales for next season 8.2 9.7 0.4 1.9 Total since August 1 131.4 141.0 0.4 1.9 Manmade: Million pounds Raw fiber exports 87.0 81.7 83.4 89.7 Noncellulosic 83.4 78.8 80.2 83.9 Cellulosic 3.6 2.9 3.2 5.8 Total since January 1 690.8 772.5 855.9 766.2 Wool and Mohair: 1,000 pounds Raw wool exports, clean 122.0 235.0 259.8 460.3 Total since January 1 323.5 558.5 818.3 3,042.7 Wool top exports 789.9 518.4 426.1 908.1 Total since January 1 2,357.0 2,875.4 3,301.5 3,146.1 Mohair exports, clean 77.3 213.6 167.2 103.3 Total since January 1 122.6 336.2 503.4 543.6 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FIBER PRICES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998 1997 ----------------------------- Item Aug Sep Oct Oct ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Domestic cotton prices: Cents per pound Adjusted world price 54.10 52.33 47.40 63.53 Dec'98 futures 73.09 74.63 70.42 75.64 Mar'99 futures 72.97 73.99 69.76 76.49 Upland spot 41-34 71.87 71.75 67.61 69.46 Pima spot 03-46 103.76 104.00 103.45 100.15 Avg. price received by: Upland producers 66.20 67.10 68.90 69.40 Mill delivered: Cotton Actual 79.80 79.02 75.35 74.96 Raw fiber equivalent 88.67 87.80 83.72 83.29 Rayon staple Actual 110.00 105.00 101.00 115.00 Raw fiber equivalent 114.58 109.38 105.21 119.79 Polyester staple Actual 58.00 58.00 53.00 68.00 Raw fiber equivalent 60.42 60.42 55.21 70.83 Price ratios Percent Cotton/rayon 77.4 80.3 79.6 69.5 Cotton/polyester 146.8 145.3 151.6 117.6 Northern Europe cotton quotes: Cents per pound A Index 68.13 66.16 61.12 77.56 Memphis Territory 76.94 77.75 72.95 80.50 California/Arizona 84.56 85.56 78.75 82.25 B Index NQ NQ 56.18 73.22 Orleans/Texas 74.75 75.13 68.90 76.30 Wool prices (clean): Dollars per pound U.S. 56's 0.95 0.90 0.90 1.50 Australian 56's 1/ 1.32 1.33 1.31 1.96 U.S. 60's 1.25 0.95 1.00 1.85 Australian 60's 1/ 1.43 1.39 1.36 2.06 U.S. 64's 1.50 1.40 1.15 2.55 Australian 64's 1/ 1.44 1.44 1.40 2.50 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- NQ = No quotes. 1/ In bond, Charleston, SC. U.S. TEXTILE TRADE ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998 1997 ------------------------------ Item Jun Jul Aug Aug ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Imports: 1,000 pounds 1/ Yarn, thread, and fabric 232,095 224,097 218,583 205,078 Cotton 103,184 96,073 98,864 86,627 Linen 15,273 14,871 13,932 19,532 Wool 4,475 4,598 3,434 4,281 Silk 720 896 818 714 Manmade 108,443 107,660 101,536 93,924 Apparel 687,209 784,831 758,111 622,448 Cotton 407,807 459,701 427,026 341,458 Linen 16,323 17,237 18,269 16,802 Wool 26,117 34,134 36,480 32,524 Silk 10,205 11,266 12,212 11,562 Manmade 226,757 262,493 264,124 147,593 Home furnishings 54,515 57,583 58,977 51,493 Cotton 41,468 43,206 42,708 37,052 Linen 170 151 161 140 Wool 197 153 257 303 Silk 27 39 52 32 Manmade 12,653 14,035 15,798 13,966 Floor coverings 28,028 25,896 26,426 25,675 Cotton 3,588 3,628 3,792 4,867 Linen 3,516 3,923 4,125 3,035 Wool 8,936 8,683 7,363 7,051 Silk 543 462 537 329 Manmade 11,446 9,201 10,609 10,393 Total imports 2/ 1,010,328 1,101,051 1,070,068 912,407 Cotton 560,276 606,799 575,800 473,547 Linen 35,348 36,229 36,532 39,554 Wool 39,936 47,846 47,780 44,437 Silk 11,496 12,665 13,619 12,637 Manmade 363,272 397,514 396,337 342,232 Exports: 1,000 pounds 1/ Yarn, thread, and fabric 172,460 148,449 163,327 174,925 Cotton 60,582 51,482 58,912 60,200 Linen 4,620 4,074 4,207 4,549 Wool 4,464 3,585 4,137 4,279 Silk 1,696 1,582 1,648 1,735 Manmade 101,098 87,726 94,423 104,163 Apparel 165,350 172,640 181,438 158,143 Cotton 97,324 102,224 107,800 93,179 Linen 1,625 1,555 1,798 1,743 Wool 8,210 9,554 9,340 8,738 Silk 3,027 4,342 4,234 3,857 Manmade 54,165 54,964 58,265 50,627 Home furnishings 6,637 8,178 7,422 8,304 Cotton 3,852 5,070 4,553 4,531 Linen 264 272 187 449 Wool 137 95 81 236 Silk 154 161 96 200 Manmade 2,230 2,579 2,506 2,888 Floor coverings 36,740 32,161 37,599 39,478 Cotton 3,349 3,207 3,843 3,557 Linen 1,855 1,748 2,118 2,189 Wool 2,966 2,416 3,123 2,589 Silk 119 114 134 129 Manmade 28,450 24,676 28,381 31,014 Total exports 2/ 380,480 361,806 390,118 381,139 Cotton 165,189 162,104 175,194 161,540 Linen 8,374 7,664 8,322 8,939 Wool 15,794 15,668 16,698 15,863 Silk 4,996 6,199 6,112 5,920 Manmade 186,127 170,171 183,793 188,877 --------------------------------------------------------------------- --- = An absence of trade. 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Includes headgear. U.S. COTTON TEXTILE IMPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998 1997 ---------------------------- Country Jun Jul Aug Aug ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 pounds 1/ North America 218,872 229,378 219,756 166,661 Canada 17,128 15,264 18,711 13,727 Costa Rica 10,708 9,564 9,347 8,546 Dominican Republic 22,193 24,930 21,669 16,784 El Salvador 16,515 15,746 14,297 9,815 Guatemala 10,272 9,758 10,902 7,809 Haiti 3,024 3,226 2,982 1,612 Honduras 30,530 32,351 30,504 23,119 Jamaica 6,082 7,375 6,023 7,103 Mexico 98,080 106,686 101,072 74,900 Nicaragua 3,925 3,987 3,837 2,947 South America 7,287 7,590 7,227 8,133 Argentina 40 103 9 47 Brazil 1,808 1,932 1,825 3,402 Chile 11 22 21 173 Colombia 2,529 3,062 2,581 1,975 Peru 2,455 2,019 2,317 2,005 Europe 34,738 38,242 35,107 29,766 Estonia 1,020 937 115 182 France 452 650 621 517 Germany 663 882 666 491 Italy 3,280 3,177 3,102 2,749 Portugal 4,684 6,086 5,989 5,765 Russia 1,395 1,291 1,321 1,103 Spain 1,707 1,929 2,174 2,085 Turkey 16,212 16,860 15,700 12,713 United Kingdom 1,036 1,276 1,617 1,217 Asia 276,025 304,023 290,603 246,355 Bahrain 1,272 1,281 1,259 1,147 Bangladesh 20,151 24,812 23,373 18,179 China 35,903 42,920 37,281 38,896 Hong Kong 36,672 39,313 35,398 28,378 India 34,073 31,814 37,278 31,291 Indonesia 17,371 19,569 18,785 17,103 Israel 2,783 3,203 2,896 2,211 Japan 996 979 1,341 1,352 Macao 6,166 7,184 6,480 4,827 Malaysia 5,566 6,188 5,464 4,305 Nepal 1,463 1,550 1,051 1,003 Oman 2,180 2,527 2,205 1,992 Pakistan 35,810 39,527 37,839 33,415 Philippines 13,062 14,210 11,622 9,924 Qatar 869 1,974 1,726 1,660 Singapore 2,488 2,390 2,665 2,016 South Korea 9,612 10,790 10,200 7,730 Sri Lanka 9,237 10,497 10,118 8,266 Taiwan 14,023 15,702 16,187 14,595 Thailand 13,777 14,280 14,432 10,637 U Arab Em 2,659 2,962 2,920 2,818 Oceania 2,080 2,321 2,282 1,794 Australia 1,114 1,149 1,216 707 Fiji 763 993 906 755 Africa 15,148 19,707 18,310 14,386 Egypt 6,510 7,595 9,520 7,507 Lesotho 1,405 3,148 1,693 1,300 Mauritius 2,560 2,934 2,232 1,574 Morocco 2,054 1,431 1,545 881 South Africa 959 1,761 1,490 1,389 Tunisia 23 89 62 86 World 2/ 560,276 606,799 575,800 473,547 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding. U.S. COTTON TEXTILE EXPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998 1997 ----------------------------- Country June July Aug Aug ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 pounds 1/ North America 141,079 138,346 151,063 125,571 Canada 28,623 23,263 28,329 25,875 Costa Rica 6,193 7,400 8,947 8,574 Dominican Republic 17,236 18,039 18,333 15,999 El Salvador 6,810 6,577 7,065 5,555 Guatemala 3,622 4,009 4,098 4,365 Haiti 1,188 1,128 1,644 1,542 Honduras 22,299 18,180 23,610 15,717 Jamaica 5,046 4,819 4,840 4,996 Mexico 48,657 53,479 52,436 41,641 South America 5,224 5,066 3,574 6,473 Argentina 357 217 257 322 Brazil 740 451 604 911 Chile 942 762 665 684 Colombia 1,570 1,429 1,071 1,472 Peru 153 111 100 165 Venezuela 962 1,589 433 2,187 Europe 10,183 10,373 10,441 14,872 Belgium 3,377 3,203 3,262 6,159 France 516 608 478 732 Germany 756 847 962 741 Ireland 973 202 266 461 Italy 394 253 308 243 Netherlands 668 651 898 943 United Kingdom 2,255 3,126 2,827 3,259 Asia 6,860 6,727 8,054 11,927 China 157 168 178 491 Hong Kong 791 780 942 1,351 Israel 778 516 708 1,249 Japan 2,614 2,584 3,348 4,579 Philippines 354 200 304 935 Saudi Arabia 449 676 857 477 Singapore 239 228 195 610 South Korea 89 280 237 490 Taiwan 162 250 237 366 U Arab Em 222 246 285 324 Oceania 850 813 920 1,260 Australia 725 496 757 1,018 New Zealand 84 106 76 153 Africa 725 454 862 1,193 Egypt 34 11 10 65 Ghana 18 8 11 8 Ivory Coast 12 34 30 40 Nigeria 138 117 283 228 South Africa 94 106 139 277 World 2/ 165,189 162,104 175,194 161,540 --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 1997 and 1998 ACREAGE, YIELD, AND PRODUCTION ESTIMATES ----------------------------------------------------------------------- State/ Harvested Area Yield Production Region 1997 1998 1997 1998 1997 1998 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 acres Lbs./ 1,000 harvested acre bales Upland: Alabama 442 455 597 601 550 570 Florida 99 80 577 498 119 83 Georgia 1,425 1,300 646 517 1,919 1,400 N. Carolina 665 695 671 656 930 950 S. Carolina 285 280 691 566 410 330 Virginia 100 91 659 770 137 146 Southeast 3,016 2,901 647 576 4,065 3,479 Arkansas 940 855 859 674 1,683 1,200 Louisiana 625 540 757 578 986 650 Mississippi 970 915 901 776 1,821 1,480 Missouri 375 330 723 524 565 360 Tennessee 480 445 662 593 662 550 Delta 3,390 3,085 809 660 5,717 4,240 Kansas 10 14 418 501 9 15 Oklahoma 190 120 462 500 183 125 Texas 5,150 3,050 479 472 5,140 3,000 Southwest 5,350 3,184 478 473 5,332 3,140 Arizona 324 249 1,255 1,118 847 580 California 875 650 1,202 923 2,191 1,250 New Mexico 66 59 676 781 93 96 West 1,265 958 1,188 965 3,131 1,926 Total Upland 13,021 10,128 673 606 18,245 12,785 Pima: Arizona 22 15 912 768 42 24 California 184 184 1,141 900 437 345 New Mexico 11 11 641 777 15 17 Texas 32 37 815 778 54 60 Total Pima 249 247 1,056 868 548 446 Total All 13,270 10,375 680 612 18,793 13,231 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on the November 1998 Crop Production report. 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