COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK April 12, 1999 April 1999, ERS-CWS-0499 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board -------------------------------------------------------------------------- COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK is issued electronically monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no printed copies available. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS 0 Higher Cotton Area Projected for 1999 0 U.S. Stocks Increased Slightly in April, Demand Unchanged 0 Foreign Production and Consumption Lower 0 U.S. Textile Imports and Exports Rise in January 0 Wool and Mohair Production Decline in 1998 0 Special Article--Patterns in USDA's World Consumption Adjustments Higher Cotton Area Projected for 1999 Farmers intend to plant nearly 14 million acres (up 4 percent) of cotton in 1999, according to USDA's Prospective Plantings report released on March 31. Upland plantings are projected to exceed 13.6 million acres, 4 percent above 1998, while extra-long staple (ELS) area is anticipated at 305,000 acres, 7 percent below a year ago. Despite lower cotton prices this spring, the higher area is expected as a result of less attractive competing crop prices. During the first three months of 1999, December cotton futures prices averaged around 61 cents per pound, well below the 72-cent average of a year ago. However, prices and price ratios for competing crops, like corn and soybeans, have fallen too. For the January through March period, the corn-to-cotton price ratio was 3.8, compared with 3.9 last year, while the soybean-to-cotton price ratio equaled 8.5, compared with 9.0 a year ago. Although the corn price ratio is similar to 1998, the aflatoxin problems associated with corn production last season in several States is an additional incentive to return to cotton in 1999. In contrast, the soybean price ratio is the lowest since 1995, with soybean prices below the loan rate. Soybeans may only be an alternative in some areas if substantial delays in cotton and other grains are experienced this season. Upland acreage is expected to rise in three of the four regions in 1999. In the Delta, upland area is projected to rise 9 percent from 1998 to 3.5 million acres, similar to the 1997 season. Likewise, producers in the Southeast have indicated a 7-percent increase in 1999 area to 3.3 million acres, the highest since the 1995 season. In the Southwest, slightly less than 6 million acres of upland cotton were expected to be planted this year, up 2 percent from 1998 and similar to 1996. In contrast, the West region indicated a reduction in its upland area by 8 percent from 1998 to only 882,000 acres. The decline is largely the result of an expected shift in some California upland area to ELS cotton. Although upland area in the West has been decreasing since 1995, the 1999 indications from Prospective Plantings would be the lowest planted acreage for the region since 1946. While only a few States have planted any cotton, Arizona and California have noticeably fallen behind again this year, which could limit some of the shifting to earlier-planted ELS cotton this season. As of April 4, these States have planted 10 and 2 percent, respectively, compared with their respective 5-year averages of 24 and 9 percent. In contrast, Texas is reported to have 9 percent of its cotton crop planted, equal to a year ago and only slightly below the average. Overall, as of April 4, U.S. cotton plantings were 4 percent complete, compared with 5 percent last season and a 5-year average of 6 percent. U.S. Stocks Increased Slightly in April, Demand Unchanged Although the first official 1999 USDA cotton supply and demand projections based on the Prospective Plantings will not be released until May 12, the carryin stock estimate was raised slightly this month. The increase in U.S. stocks was the result of the recent Cotton Ginnings report indicating 1998 U.S. cotton production of 13.9 million bales, compared with an earlier estimate of 13.8 million. With no additional changes in any other supply and demand projections for 1998/99, estimated U.S. ending stocks on July 31, 1999, are revised to 3.5 million bales, about 400,000 below the beginning level. However, lower demand this season indicates a stocks-to-use ratio in 1998/99 of 24 percent, compared with about 21 percent a year earlier. Meanwhile, the 1998/99 projections of lower world consumption and trade have been reflected in an estimated total U.S. cotton demand falling to its lowest level in 10 years. U.S. mill use is projected at 10.4 million bales in 1998/99, 8 percent below the previous season. According to the Department of Commerce's Census Bureau, actual cotton consumption during the first 7 months of this season totaled slightly over 6 million bales, 9 percent below the corresponding period in 1997/98. A positive sign in mill use, however, has been the last 2 months' consumption, which averaged about 10.5 million bales on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis. U.S. cotton exports also have been dampened by the decline in world consumption and the abundance of foreign stocks around the globe. In addition, the loss of "Step 2" funding in mid-December has made exporting U.S. cotton even more difficult in an intensely competitive season. U.S. exports in 1998/99 are currently projected at 4.2 million bales, compared with last season's 7.5 million. According to USDA's Export Sales reports, U.S. cotton shipments reached 3.2 million bales by April 1, with an additional 1 million in outstanding sales. Although the combined shipments and outstanding sales equal the current projection, additional sales will be needed to account for the traditional "rollover" of some sales into the next marketing year. To reach the 4.2-million-bale estimate, shipments to the end of the season must average about 59,000 bales per week, similar to shipments during March. Foreign Production and Consumption Lower Declines exceeding 2 million bales in 1998/99, compared with 1997/98, are expected in foreign production, consumption, and imports. The largest of these expected declines is in consumption; at 74.3 million bales, foreign consumption in 1998/99 is forecast 2.6 million below its 1997/98 level. In percentage terms, this 3.4-percent decline in foreign consumption is the largest since 1961. The next largest decline was 3.1 percent in 1974. Foreign production in 1998/99 is forecast at 70.1 million bales, about 2 million below its 1997/98 level. Foreign imports in 1998/99 are forecast at 24.4 million bales, 2.3 million below their 1997/98 level. In contrast, foreign exports and ending stocks are expected to rise in 1998/99. Foreign exports are forecast at 19.6 million bales, up 600,000, and ending stocks are forecast at 38.4 million bales, up 900,000. As a share of foreign consumption, foreign ending stocks are expected to total 54 percent, compared with 52 percent in 1997/98. April's USDA estimates of foreign production and consumption in 1998/99 are also lower than March's 1998/99 estimates. Compared with last month, the 1998/99 foreign production estimate is 700,000 bales lower, and the consumption estimate is 300,000 bales lower. Ending stocks are also estimated lower than in March, while the foreign trade estimates are much closer to their March levels. USDA's 1998/99 foreign production estimate fell in April from the month before largely due to reductions in Pakistan and Australia. Pakistan's estimated production in 1998/99 is 6.5 million bales, compared with March's 6.9 million estimate for 1998/99, and production of 7.2 million in 1997/98. Gin arrivals in Pakistan to date are down even more than this 10-percent decline, and there is widespread speculation that a sales tax increase in the last year has resulted in under reporting. However, the crop does appear to be lower as yield problems once again depress the Pakistani crop. Australia's 1998/99 crop is forecast 200,000 bales lower in April than the month before, but at 3.2 million bales is still expected to be its largest ever. While good pre-season moisture assured much better than normal prospects for dryland production in Australia, elevated precipitation since planting has proven less propitious for the crop overall. USDA's 1998/99 foreign consumption estimate fell in April from March largely due to reductions in Pakistan, Italy, and Germany. Pakistan's expected consumption fell 100,000 bales to 7.1 million due to a reduced crop there. While larger imports are expected to make up for most of the decline in production, Pakistan's 1998/99 consumption is no longer expected to increase from the year before. Italy's and Germany's 1998/99 consumption was reduced 75,000 and 65,000 bales, respectively, in April due to reports of lower imports of raw cotton than a year ago. Press reports also suggest lower output for Italy's textile and clothing sector. The divergence into new markets of Turkey's former "suitcase" trade in textiles with Russia may be a factor weighing down on profitability and production for Western European mills. Also, Korea's 1998/99 consumption estimate was raised 50,000 bales this month, and India's 1997/98 estimate was raised about 100,000 bales. Lower exchange rates in Asia are also increasing competitive pressures on textile mills in other parts of the world, including Europe. U.S. Textile Imports and Exports Rise in January January textile exports, at 329 million pounds (raw-fiber equivalent), increased 1 percent from December, but were 12 percent below January 1998. Increased shipments of yarn, thread, and fabric and apparel more than offset declines in home furnishings and floor coverings. Cotton textile exports rose to nearly 149 million pounds, 6 percent above December and 7 percent above a year ago. Shipments to North American countries accounted for 87 percent of the total. Mexico, Canada, Honduras, and the Dominican Republic remained the largest buyers of U.S. cotton textiles and apparel. However, cotton exports to all other regions were lower in January than a year earlier. Textile imports totaled 860 million pounds, up 3 percent from December and 8 percent above a year earlier. Overall, imports increased for all major fibers, except wool, compared with a month ago. Shipments of all major end-uses, except floor coverings, were also higher than in December. Cotton imports, at 475 million pounds, accounted for 55 percent of total imports in January and were 11 percent above a year earlier. Asian textile-producing countries remain the most important source of cotton textile imports, accounting for 54 percent in January 1999. However, North America continues to increase market share of cotton textiles, accounting for 35 percent of all cotton shipments, compared with 31 percent in January 1998. Wool and Mohair Production Decline in 1998 On March 25, USDA released the Wool and Mohair report. Final 1998 wool production was 49.2 million pounds, greasy, down 8 percent from 1997. Sheep and lambs shorn totaled 6.43 million head, down 8 percent from a year earlier. The average price paid for wool sold in 1998 was 60 cents per pound for a total value of $29.4 million, down 35 percent from $44.9 million in 1997. Mohair production in the four major producing States (Arizona, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) during 1998 was 5.09 million pounds, down 26 percent from 1997. Goat and kids clipped, at 705,000 head, were down 25 percent from a year ago. Average weight per clip was 7.2 pounds, compared with 7.3 pounds in 1997. The value of mohair production was $12.6 million, down 18 percent from a year earlier. Special Article: Patterns in USDA's World Consumption Adjustments by Stephen MacDonald With 1998/99 world consumption adjusted downward 300,000 bales in April, and 1997/98 adjusted upward 100,000 bales, the year-to-year decline in world consumption is forecast at 4.1 percent. This would be the largest year-to-year consumption decline since 1974, a factor which has undoubtedly played a large role in keeping the A-index below 60 cents for such a large portion of the year to date. USDA's forecasted year-to-year change for 1998/99 world consumption has declined relatively steadily since the first detailed set of world forecasts were issued by USDA in July 1998. At the time, USDA forecast that 1998/99 consumption would rise 0.3 percent from the year before. By November, this had changed to a forecast of a 2.0-percent decline, and by February 1999, a 4.2-percent decline was foreseen. During the last year, as is often the case, USDA has made a number of multi-year historical revisions. These revisions make direct comparisons of USDA forecasts from one year to the next difficult, but since the historical revisions implemented for various countries are virtually always consistent across years, it is still possible to make indirect comparisons. USDA's forecasts of annual change have exhibited a pattern during the last few years that could have a bearing on interpreting the current forecasts. USDA's forecasts and historical data for foreign countries in part come from reports by agricultural attaches and other embassy personnel within these countries and in part from other sources, such as macroeconomic indicators, trade sources, and publicly available data. In many cases, revised consumption estimates are sent to Washington only a few times per year. Unlike production, annual consumption levels are determined by activity throughout the entire year, rather than concentrated during a season of crop production. While the variability of consumption is much smaller than that of production, its turning points are less obviously tied to observable factors like weather and pest activity. USDA has been described as forecasting "conservatively," which can be interpreted as giving a larger weight to recent history when forecasting a forthcoming year. This would be a reasonable interpretation of the change in USDA's forecasted change in world 1998/99 consumption; USDA gave greater weight to previous years' consumption levels and trends than it did to industry reports of reduced mill use, and gradually incorporated information of large declines in various countries as actual trade and mill data revealed the magnitude of the changes. However, it is worth noting that since April 1995, the April forecast of current marketing year consumption has been too pessimistic for three out of four marketing years. This would also be consistent with conservative forecasting because consumption rose during this period after falling in the early 1990's. So, an assumption of the earlier trends continuing would support pessimistic forecasts. In April 1995, USDA forecast world 1994/95 consumption would fall 0.5 percent; currently it is estimated to have risen 0.3 percent. In April 1996, 1995/96 consumption was forecast up 1.1 percent; currently it is estimated up 1.6 percent. In April 1997, 1996/97 consumption was forecast up 1.4 percent; currently it is estimated up 2.5 percent. April 1998 appears to diverge from this trend since the forecasted decline for 1997/98 is now larger than it was a year earlier. In April 1998, 1997/98 world consumption was forecast down 0.5 percent; currently it is estimated down 0.9 percent. However, each of the preceding three estimates was first revised more pessimistically at some point before later rising. Many of USDA's current estimates for both 1997/98 and 1998/99 will be revised between April and July under the annual reporting cycle guiding the majority of USDA's reporting embassies. This tendency observed for 1995-97 is by no means statistically significant. And the uniqueness of recent events compared with earlier in the 1990's cannot be denied. So it is far from clear what the pattern of conservative forecasting means for the longer term direction of revisions for 1998/99. Estimated and Forecast Annual Change in World Consumption ----------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------Marketing year -------------- Publication date 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Percent change April 1995 -0.5 April 1996 -0.5 1.1 April 1997 -0.8 0.8 1.4 April 1998 0.2 1.5 1.9 -0.5 April 1999 0.3 1.6 2.5 -0.9 -4.1 ----------------------------------------------------------------- * * * Copies of the 1998 Cotton and Wool Yearbook (CWS-1998) are available for purchase. For information, call 1-800-999-6770. The next Cotton and Wool Outlook (CWS-0499) will be released on May 13, 1999. ***************************************************************** Information Contacts: Leslie Meyer (U.S. Cotton) LMEYER@ECON.AG.GOV (202) 694-5307 Stephen MacDonald (Foreign Cotton) STEPHENM@ECON.AG.GOV (202) 694-5305 Robert Skinner (Textiles and Wool) RSKINNER@ECON.AG.GOV (202) 694-5313 ***************************************************************** U.S. COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998/99 --------------------------- Item 1997/98 Feb Mar Apr ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Upland: Million acres Planted 13.648 13.088 13.088 13.088 Harvested 13.157 10.486 10.486 10.486 Pounds Yield/harvested acre 666 612 612 617 Million 480-lb. bales Beginning stocks 3.920 3.822 3.822 3.822 Production 18.245 13.366 13.366 13.470 Total supply 1/ 22.178 17.537 17.528 17.627 Mill use 11.234 10.290 10.290 10.275 Exports 7.060 3.900 3.900 3.900 Total use 18.294 14.190 14.190 14.175 Ending stocks 3.822 3.309 3.300 3.400 Percent Stocks-to-use ratio 20.9 23.3 23.3 24.0 Extra-long staple: 1,000 acres Planted 250 330 330 330 Harvested 249 237 237 237 Pounds Yield/harvested acre 1,056 873 873 893 1,000 480-lb. bales Beginning stocks 51 65 65 65 Production 548 430 430 440 Total supply 1/ 599 496 505 520 Mill use 115 110 110 125 Exports 440 300 300 300 Total use 555 410 410 425 Ending stocks 65 91 100 100 Percent Stocks-to-use ratio 11.7 22.2 24.4 23.5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA estimates. 1/ Includes imports. WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998/99 ------------------------------ Item 1997/98 Feb Mar Apr ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Supply: Million 480-lb. bales Beginning stocks World 38.25 41.12 41.51 41.41 Foreign 34.28 37.24 37.62 37.52 Production World 91.60 84.86 85.29 84.68 Foreign 72.80 71.07 71.49 70.77 Imports World 26.66 24.50 24.64 24.72 Foreign 26.65 24.15 24.29 24.37 Use: Mill use World 88.30 84.61 85.01 84.72 Foreign 76.95 74.21 74.61 74.32 Exports World 26.54 23.95 23.93 23.84 Foreign 19.04 19.75 19.73 19.64 Ending stocks World 41.41 41.60 42.17 41.92 Foreign 37.52 38.20 38.77 38.42 Stocks-to-use ratio Percent World 46.9 49.2 49.6 49.5 Foreign 48.8 51.5 52.0 51.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA estimates. FIBER SUPPLY ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998 1999 1998 ----------------- Item Dec Jan Feb Feb ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb. bales Ginnings 1,843 408 90 0 Imports since August 1 23.2 28.3 NA 2.7 Stocks, beginning 10,109 10,223 9,597 13,718 At mills 559 568 586 624 Public storage 8,536 9,127 8,677 11,365 CCC stocks 1,946 3,530 3,488 2,820 Manmade: Million pounds Production 760.9 837.6 803.6 837.6 Noncellulosic 735.4 812.2 780.9 804.6 Cellulosic 25.5 25.4 22.7 33.0 Total since January 1 10,269.7 837.6 1,641.2 1,739.1 1998 1999 1998 ---------------- Nov Dec Jan Jan ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Million pounds Raw fiber imports 124.3 123.7 125.8 126.8 Noncellulosic 118.2 117.5 120.3 117.0 Cellulosic 6.1 6.2 5.5 9.8 Total since January 1 1,376.5 1,500.2 125.8 126.8 Wool and Mohair: 1,000 pounds Raw wool imports, clean 4,933 4,343 6,151 8,790 48's-and-finer 3,362 2,676 4,416 6,555 Not-finer-than-46's 1,571 1,666 1,735 2,235 Total since January 1 66,165 70,508 6,151 8,790 Wool top imports 179 217 35 283 Total since January 1 2,161 2,378 35 283 Mohair imports, clean 0 0 0 2 Total since January 1 11 11 0 2 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NA = Not available. COTTON SYSTEM FIBER CONSUMPTION ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998 1999 1998 ----------------- Item Dec Jan Feb Feb ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb. bales All consumed by mills 1/ 722 882 825 897 Total since August 1 1/ 4,333 5,215 6,040 6,652 SA annual rate 2/ 10,247 10,490 10,484 11,414 SA daily rate 2/ 39.4 40.3 40.3 43.7 Daily rate 31.4 42.0 41.3 44.8 Upland consumed by mills 1/ 711 870 813 887 Total since August 1 1/ 4,275 5,145 5,958 6,588 SA daily rate 2/ 38.9 39.8 39.7 43.2 Daily rate 30.9 41.4 40.6 44.3 Spindles in place 5,337 5,230 5,218 5,459 Active spindles 5,017 4,896 4,859 5,152 100 percent cotton 2,665 2,615 2,618 2,605 100 percent manmade 753 744 752 788 Blends 1,599 1,537 1,489 1,759 Percent Cotton's share of fibers 80.3 79.2 79.6 78.5 Manmade: 1,000 pounds Total consumed by mills 1/ 85,093 110,957 101,376 117,999 Total since August 1 1/ 530,967 641,924 743,300 862,063 Daily rate 3,700 5,284 5,069 5,900 Noncellulosic staple 3,469 4,944 4,719 5,356 Cellulosic staple 231 340 350 544 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Adjusted to calendar month. 2/ SA = seasonally adjusted. FIBER EXPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998 1999 1998 ---------------- Item Nov Dec Jan Jan ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb. bales Upland exports 781 1,007 110 667 Total since August 1 1,703 2,710 2,820 3,050 Sales for next season 15 22 27 63 Total since August 1 149 171 198 300 ELS exports 13.7 19.9 46.4 67.0 Total since August 1 39.5 59.4 105.8 196.6 Sales for next season 5.3 4.4 11.9 16.1 Total since August 1 9.4 13.7 25.6 27.2 Manmade: Million pounds Raw fiber exports 69.3 80.9 71.9 85.0 Noncellulosic 73.3 67.4 69.2 82.4 Cellulosic 3.0 1.9 2.7 2.6 Total since January 1 945.2 1,014.5 71.9 85.0 Wool and Mohair: 1,000 pounds Raw wool exports, clean 7.0 55.0 9.0 381.8 Total since January 1 1,665.5 1,720.6 9.0 381.8 Wool top exports 415.6 222.9 401.0 867.4 Total since January 1 5,333.8 5,556.7 401.0 867.4 Mohair exports, clean 316.1 404.7 256.0 45.3 Total since January 1 1,869.1 2,273.7 256.0 45.3 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FIBER PRICES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1999 1998 --------------------------- Item Jan Feb Mar Mar ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Domestic cotton prices: Cents per pound Adjusted World Price 41.71 42.11 42.64 54.31 May'99 futures 60.39 58.72 61.09 75.17 Dec'99 futures 63.35 60.32 59.80 72.78 Upland spot 41-34 56.20 55.46 58.17 67.04 Pima spot 03-46 97.66 94.50 86.37 101.64 Avg. price received by: Upland producers 58.30 56.00 54.40 63.90 Mill delivered: Cotton Actual 64.47 63.39 66.31 72.95 Raw fiber equivalent 71.63 70.43 73.68 81.06 Rayon staple Actual 101.00 101.00 101.00 101.00 Raw fiber equivalent 105.21 105.21 105.21 105.21 Polyester staple Actual 51.00 51.00 51.00 65.00 Raw fiber equivalent 53.13 53.13 53.13 67.71 Price ratios Percent Cotton/rayon 68.1 66.9 70.0 67.7 Cotton/polyester 134.8 132.6 138.7 119.7 Northern Europe cotton quotes: Cents per pound A Index 55.78 56.26 56.74 68.41 Memphis Territory NQ NQ NQ 75.38 California/Arizona 69.31 69.25 71.63 77.13 B Index 54.00 53.30 53.28 66.98 Orleans/Texas 63.75 61.38 64.00 70.19 Wool prices (clean): Dollars per pound U.S. 56's 0.70 0.70 0.65 1.18 Australian 56's 1/ 1.42 1.33 1.36 1.70 U.S. 60's 0.95 0.95 0.95 1.50 Australian 60's 1/ 1.49 1.42 1.47 2.02 U.S. 64's 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.95 Australian 64's 1/ 1.58 1.50 1.57 2.47 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NQ = No quotes. 1/ In bond, Charleston, SC. TEXTILE TRADE ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998 1999 1998 -------------------- Item Nov Dec Jan Jan ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Imports: 1,000 pounds 1/ Yarn, thread, and fabric 205,990 203,819 211,671 207,097 Cotton 84,462 86,020 87,787 85,042 Linen 27,351 22,902 26,678 27,226 Wool 3,659 3,333 3,114 4,494 Silk 781 798 736 727 Manmade 89,737 90,765 93,357 89,608 Apparel 540,093 545,979 559,039 506,145 Cotton 332,027 342,541 340,605 297,480 Linen 14,864 14,661 18,818 16,475 Wool 15,286 12,432 12,371 12,616 Silk 9,860 12,037 15,148 15,272 Manmade 168,056 164,309 172,096 164,303 House furnishings 49,228 48,220 51,081 47,980 Cotton 34,142 34,913 38,059 36,248 Linen 140 151 289 123 Wool 94 210 93 85 Silk 100 23 35 35 Manmade 14,752 12,923 12,605 11,489 Floor covering 29,124 32,483 31,555 25,565 Cotton 3,411 4,934 5,134 3,919 Linen 3,801 4,966 4,331 3,215 Wool 8,942 10,080 9,752 8,790 Silk 545 572 627 335 Manmade 12,424 11,931 11,712 9,306 Total imports 2/ 830,876 837,867 860,142 794,594 Cotton 457,288 472,756 475,496 426,899 Linen 46,237 42,704 50,174 47,057 Wool 28,117 26,121 25,436 26,057 Silk 11,287 13,431 16,547 16,369 Manmade 287,946 282,854 292,489 278,212 Exports: 1,000 pounds 1/ Yarn, thread, and fabric 166,282 138,136 150,355 155,831 Cotton 62,082 47,875 55,722 51,616 Linen 5,364 3,759 4,419 3,827 Wool 4,456 3,597 3,392 4,295 Silk 1,702 1,514 1,540 1,345 Manmade 92,678 81,391 85,282 94,747 Apparel 160,395 142,779 143,649 142,489 Cotton 94,881 85,027 86,649 81,153 Linen 1,798 1,642 1,270 1,352 Wool 7,595 5,861 6,097 8,052 Silk 3,689 3,217 3,235 3,706 Manmade 52,433 47,033 46,398 48,226 House furnishings 8,375 7,591 6,083 5,409 Cotton 4,914 4,853 3,952 3,125 Linen 376 221 203 324 Wool 86 49 40 81 Silk 227 49 67 156 Manmade 2,773 2,418 1,821 1,723 Floor covering 37,336 35,719 28,923 35,059 Cotton 3,114 2,881 2,404 3,498 Linen 1,754 1,538 1,483 2,162 Wool 3,341 2,989 2,352 2,619 Silk 96 73 82 156 Manmade 29,032 28,239 22,601 26,624 Total exports 2/ 372,627 324,441 329,205 339,090 Cotton 165,053 140,699 148,785 139,481 Linen 9,299 7,167 7,382 7,675 Wool 15,489 12,506 11,891 15,062 Silk 5,713 4,853 4,924 5,363 Manmade 177,073 159,215 156,224 171,510 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Includes headgear. U.S. COTTON TEXTILE IMPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998 1999 1998 -------------------- Item Nov Dec Jan Jan ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 pounds 1/ North America 200,712 208,620 165,973 132,522 Canada 19,127 15,004 16,567 11,952 Costa Rica 8,645 8,971 6,174 5,819 Dominican Republic 20,830 23,326 10,407 7,989 El Salvador 11,871 15,822 11,931 10,154 Guatemala 8,321 10,771 8,425 5,728 Haiti 3,189 3,482 2,185 1,677 Honduras 23,952 30,958 23,473 17,616 Jamaica 5,586 5,137 3,647 4,174 Mexico 95,908 91,622 79,681 64,204 Nicaragua 2,783 2,988 3,094 2,828 South America 7,715 8,375 7,325 7,747 Argentina 26 8 26 19 Brazil 1,246 2,334 2,635 3,559 Chile 12 32 26 4 Colombia 3,043 2,890 1,935 1,715 Peru 2,930 2,722 2,225 2,139 Europe 23,589 24,174 24,278 26,844 Estonia 833 915 639 921 France 710 501 590 562 Germany 840 736 431 531 Italy 3,284 3,469 2,676 2,900 Portugal 2,438 1,969 1,518 1,539 Russia 845 674 708 734 Spain 1,368 1,207 817 782 Turkey 8,667 9,147 12,234 14,883 United Kingdom 1,354 1,695 947 720 Asia 209,396 215,159 256,332 237,305 Bahrain 1,055 1,143 1,017 1,181 Bangladesh 12,225 11,921 21,557 17,455 China 24,788 25,112 29,995 27,015 Hong Kong 27,959 27,821 28,763 33,760 India 25,158 26,605 30,873 24,931 Indonesia 10,875 10,460 14,897 15,982 Israel 2,353 2,702 3,065 3,036 Japan 1,145 1,476 1,294 864 Macao 5,471 6,464 6,756 5,700 Malaysia 4,768 5,942 6,576 6,011 Nepal 1,304 1,663 1,940 1,476 Oman 1,832 1,592 1,878 2,420 Pakistan 28,435 28,788 29,950 32,758 Philippines 9,495 9,197 12,030 11,141 Qator 1,101 977 1,208 1,697 Singapore 2,102 2,605 2,432 2,052 South Korea 7,016 7,132 9,250 6,918 Sri Lanka 7,190 6,389 10,083 8,243 Taiwan 12,237 12,335 13,726 11,781 Thailand 11,354 11,889 12,837 13,772 U Arab Em 1,600 1,631 2,590 2,352 Oceania 836 1,394 2,427 1,858 Australia 675 1,011 625 772 Fiji 61 106 1,547 774 Africa 12,803 14,226 13,469 14,886 Egypt 5,746 6,256 5,671 7,546 Lesotho 1,540 1,722 1,560 2,193 Mauritius 2,003 2,064 2,079 1,708 Morocco 982 1,263 900 1,104 South Africa 983 961 1,173 788 Tunisia 29 55 85 30 World 2/ 457,288 472,756 475,496 426,899 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding. U.S. COTTON TEXTILE EXPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998 1999 1998 ---------------- Country Nov Dec Jan Jan ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 pounds 1/ North America 143,118 123,835 129,639 112,449 Canada 29,491 21,851 24,851 24,526 Costa Rica 7,603 5,177 6,177 7,056 Dominican Republic 15,035 12,721 12,955 9,474 El Salvador 5,890 5,074 5,283 5,285 Guatemala 3,109 2,790 2,621 2,369 Haiti 1,329 2,123 2,022 944 Honduras 17,256 17,097 15,758 15,202 Jamaica 3,188 3,984 2,767 4,065 Mexico 58,666 50,938 55,796 42,245 South America 3,598 3,650 3,203 5,056 Argentina 160 182 137 214 Brazil 433 314 404 317 Chile 527 1,022 949 562 Colombia 1,345 1,197 1,076 1,457 Peru 153 133 82 83 Venezuela 602 417 277 2,007 Europe 8,246 5,114 7,789 11,479 Belgium 3,206 586 1,824 3,964 France 551 459 292 343 Germany 855 806 751 1,203 Ireland 114 145 90 106 Italy 356 239 760 375 Netherlands 376 497 695 618 United Kingdom 1,789 1,233 2,551 3,411 Asia 8,330 6,372 6,761 8,808 China 270 271 115 375 Hong Kong 1,506 877 718 976 Israel 847 534 690 1,588 Japan 2,617 2,510 2,954 2,973 Philippines 312 121 267 303 Saudi Arabia 643 513 527 476 Singapore 303 289 192 279 South Korea 478 285 323 235 Taiwan 235 221 149 239 U Arab Em 310 197 235 514 Oceania 700 749 622 876 Australia 501 608 482 669 New Zealand 123 71 50 129 Africa 801 784 617 641 Egypt 52 53 3 27 Ghana 43 13 2 27 Ivory Coast 33 19 44 41 Nigeria 118 233 199 72 South Africa 331 179 84 115 World 2/ 165,053 140,699 148,785 139,481 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding. ACTUAL AND PROJECTED COTTON ACREAGE ------------------------------------------------------------------- State/ Actual Actual Projected Region 1997 1998 1999 1/ 1999/1998 ------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 acres Percent Upland: Alabama 535 495 550 111 Florida 100 89 100 112 Georgia 1,440 1,400 1,500 107 N. Carolina 690 710 770 108 S. Carolina 290 290 285 98 Virginia 101 92 98 107 Southeast 3,156 3,076 3,303 107 Arkansas 980 920 960 104 Louisiana 655 535 570 107 Mississippi 985 950 1,100 116 Missouri 395 370 370 100 Tennessee 490 450 500 111 Delta 3,505 3,225 3,500 109 Kansas 12 17 29 171 Oklahoma 200 160 225 141 Texas 5,500 5,650 5,700 101 Southwest 5,212 5,827 5,954 102 Arizona 325 250 250 100 California 880 650 570 88 New Mexico 70 60 62 103 West 1,275 960 882 92 Total Upland 13,648 13,088 13,639 104 Pima: Arizona 22 16 13 83 California 185 200 250 125 New Mexico 11 9 8 89 Texas 32 105 34 32 Total Pima 250 330 305 93 Total All 13,898 13,418 13,944 104 ------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Planting intentions as indicated by reports from farmers. END_OF_FILE