COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK May 13, 1999 May 1999, ERS-CWS-0499 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board -------------------------------------------------------------------------- COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK is issued electronically monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no printed copies available. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS Larger U.S. Cotton Crop and Stocks Projected in 1999/2000 1999/2000 Foreign Production Falling, Consumption Rising World Trade Forecast Higher in 1999/2000 1998/99 U.S. Cotton Estimates Revised Slightly U.S. Textile Imports and Exports Expand in February Special Article--California Cotton Planting Progress and Yields: A Review of 1998 and Implications for 1999 Larger U.S. Cotton Crop and Stocks Projected in 1999/2000 The first official USDA forecast for the 1999 season projects U.S. cotton production at 18 million bales. Based on the March Prospective Plantings report, cotton planted area in 1999 is expected to reach 13.9 million acres, 4 percent above 1998. In addition, assumptions of average abandonment and yield were made in reaching the production forecast. Projected harvested area of 13 million acres is based on the 1988-97 average acreage abandonment weighted by State. The projected yield of 665 pounds per harvested acre is based on the 1994-98 average yield weighted by State, dropping the lowest yield for each State; the resulting aggregate yield is slightly below the long-term trend. If realized, the 1999 U.S. cotton crop would rise 4 million bales (29 percent) from 1998's weather-reduced crop. With U.S. cotton stocks estimated at 3.6 million bales by the start of the 1999 season and production projected to exceed total demand, stocks are expected to increase significantly next season. In 1999/2000, domestic mill use is forecast to rise only slightly, to10.6 million bales, as the continued rise in textile imports is expected to nearly offset the anticipated growth in retail cotton consumption. On the other hand, U.S. raw cotton exports are projected to jump by one-third to 5.5 million bales next season as a result of the large U.S. crop expectations and the improved world consumption demand outlook. With global trade projected above the current season, the U.S. share of world cotton trade is expected to rise 5 percentage points to 22 percent in 1999/2000. Based on these initial U.S. cotton supply and demand estimates, stocks would rise nearly 2 million bales to 5.5 million by July 31, 2000, a stocks-to-use ratio of 34 percent, which would be the highest since 1988/89. As of May 9, U.S. cotton planting progress was running behind both last year and the 5-year average. Thirty-five percent of the crop was planted as of May 9, compared with 37 percent in 1998 and an average of 42 percent. Delays were most noticeable in Arizona, Georgia, and South Carolina, where the percent planted is lagging the 5-year average by 15-20 percentage points. In contrast, progress in California and Missouri show plantings above the average and well ahead of last season. Foreign Production Falling, Consumption Rising in 1999/2000 Foreign cotton production is expected to fall about 1 million bales in 1999/2000, to 69 million, while foreign consumption is expected to rise 1.6 million bales to about 76 million. Higher foreign imports are also expected in 1999/2000, up about 900,000 bales to 25.3 million, but foreign exports are forecast about unchanged from a year earlier, at 19.5 million bales. Lower foreign stocks are expected in 1999/2000, at 36.2 million bales, or 48 percent of consumption. Compared with 1998/99, expected foreign stocks in 1999/2000 are lower by 1.4 million bales or 3 percent of consumption. Foreign production is expected to slip below 70 million bales in 1999/2000 for the first time since 1994/95, as low prices during the first three-quarters of the current marketing year drive production lower in a number of countries. Production is expected to rebound in a few countries where 1998/99 yields were damaged by unusual weather. China's cotton price reforms have reduced its expected return on cotton production, and lower planting intentions have been reported there for 1999/2000. However, as in the United States, price prospects for competing crops are also poor, and production could easily overshoot the government's target of about 17 million bales. Cotton production in China has fallen below 19 million bales only once during the 1990s--in 1993/94, when the bollworm crisis first struck the North China Plain. China's reported yields have trended up strongly since then, and in 1998/99 were the second highest ever despite wide-spread flooding. China's plans to remove official procurement price floors beginning September 1 and to at least partly end the government procurement monopoly, add a large degree of uncertainty for its cotton producers. India's production in 1999/2000 could be lower than 1998/99's 12.9-million-bale estimate. With a year-to-year increase in production in 1998/99, and lower consumption, India's 1998/99 ending stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 44 percent. This is well above the 32-percent ratio estimated for the preceding 2 years. This would suggest reduced prospects for Indian cotton producers in general. Producers in the high-yielding northern states are particularly likely to reduce area in the wake of problems with yields. Higher production is possible in Uzbekistan in 1999/2000, assuming more normal weather than in 1998/99, when an unusually cool June reduced yield potential. The percentage of cotton replanted in 1999/2000 may not be particularly lower than the year before, but, assuming normal weather, yields should at least partly recover from 1998/99's 14-percent decline. Foreign Consumption To Rebound Foreign cotton consumption is expected to rise 2.2 percent from the year before in 1999/2000, partly rebounding from a 4.7-percent decline over the preceding 2 years. As a partial recovery in global economic activity boosts consumer demand and as the impact of a 25-percent decline in world cotton prices over the last 2 years increases the profitability of utilizing cotton, foreign cotton use is expected to return to its 1996/97 growth rate. Foreign cotton consumption has declined more often than increased during the 1990s, falling in each year except 1995/96 and 1996/97. In contrast, foreign cotton consumption rose 18.7 million bales, or 31 percent, during the 1980s. The difference between the two decades was largely due to the collapse of Russia's and Eastern Europe's textile industries after 1989 and stagnation in China's cotton consumption after a surge during the 1980s. Since 1989, foreign cotton consumption has fallen 3.8 million bales or about 5 percent. China's consumption in 1999/2000 seems likely to be similar to 1998/99's 20 million bales. On the one hand, China reports continued progress in the spindle reduction campaign that has reportedly destroyed millions of cotton spindles during calendar 1999. Also, textile exports continue to deteriorate compared with year-earlier levels. Both factors have been important considerations in forecasting a decline in China's cotton consumption during 1998/99 than a year earlier. They also highlight reasons for expecting a continued decline in China's consumption in 1999/2000 in the absence of changes in China's policies toward textile restructuring and regarding exchange rates. On the other hand, total production of yarns of all fibers has begun gaining on year-ago levels in recent months, and concern with rising unemployment has reportedly altered some previously anticipated economic policies. The cotton share of China's total textile production has been falling in recent years, and the textile restructuring efforts have singled out spindles used for cotton. However, China opened mill purchase prices of cotton to market forces this year, removing the official floor but maintaining a provision that marketing agencies could not sell at a loss. Prices to mills have fallen, and the government has reportedly offered a subsidy for mills using cotton from Xinjiang. It is not clear that prices of other fibers have fallen as fast as cotton prices this year, so it is reasonable to expect the cotton share of textile production to perhaps stabilize. Prospects for cotton consumption in Russia and elsewhere in the New Independent States (NIS) in 1999/2000 are very uncertain, and are far less relevant to the world outlook than they were a decade ago. The quality of statistics available for current levels of cotton consumption in the NIS is not very good, but it is believed that Russian consumption has fallen in the wake of 1998's financial crisis, and it is difficult to foresee a significant recovery coming within the next year. Since USDA estimates 1998/99 Russian cotton consumption at only 800,000 bales, or 1 percent of foreign consumption--compared with 5.8 million bales in 1989/90, 7 percent of foreign consumption--the ability of events in Russia to directly influence foreign cotton consumption has greatly diminished. Consumption Returning Closer to Trend in 1999/2000 Subtracting China, the New Independent States, and Eastern Europe (EE) from the total for foreign cotton consumption gives a better aggregate perspective on likely developments during 1999/2000. Excluding these countries, foreign cotton consumption rose steadily until 1997/98--increasing 9 million bales or 16 percent between 1989/90 and 1996/97, to 63.7 million bales. The financial disruptions that began in Asia in 1997 led to lower consumption in the following 2 years, and foreign (excluding China, NIS, and EE) consumption fell 2.6 million bales, largely during 1998/99. Financial stability and economic growth seem to be returning to much of Asia during calendar 1999, and the process should continue during 2000. Asian consumers should resume more normal consumption of apparel. Also, the lagged effects of earlier declines in exchange rates for textile exporting countries in Asia and elsewhere should help reduce the costs of apparel imports for the European Union and the United States, helping stimulate consumption there as well. Growth in this adjusted foreign mill consumption total averaged 1.3 percent during the 1990s through 1998/99, or 2.2 percent through 1996/97. For illustrative purposes, assume that China and the NIS consume the same amount of cotton in 1999/2000 as the year before; then a forecast of total foreign consumption growing 2.2 percent from the year before implies an increase in adjusted foreign consumption of 2.7 percent. This growth rate was achieved each year during 1994/95-1997/98, and is a reasonable mid-point forecast for 1999/2000 given the recovery in world economic growth and the decline in cotton prices. World Trade and U.S. Exports Forecast Higher in 1999/2000 With both world cotton consumption higher in 1999/2000 and exportable supplies in the world's two largest exporters--the United States and Uzbekistan--higher as well, world trade is expected to rise 1.3 million bales to 25 million. Excluding 1998/99, this would be the lowest level of world trade since 1976/77, and is below the 27-million-bale average of the 1990s. As with consumption, the likely prospect of little change in imports by China and Russia from their low 1998/99 levels constrains the outlook for world trade increases. Instead of total world trade, historical comparisons are better performed with a world trade figure adjusted by NIS imports. Since the NIS import market was largely closed to the outside world until recently, the collapse of NIS imports distorts historical global figures. Again, for illustrative purposes, assume no change in NIS activity in 1999/2000 from the year before; then, adjusted world trade in 1999/2000 is forecast at 23.6 million bales, about equal to the average for the 1990s of 23.8 million, and slightly below the 1995/96 peak of 25.9 million. U.S. exports are expected to increase 1.4 million bales from the year before in 1999/2000, to 5.5 million, as improved yields boost U.S. exportable supplies and growing world demand improves prospects for U.S. sales. The U.S. share of world trade is expected to rebound to 22 percent, compared with 17 percent in 1998/99. During the 1990s to date, the United States has averaged 25 percent of world trade. Adjusting world trade for NIS imports, the U.S. share of adjusted world trade is expected to rise from 18 percent to 23 percent. The average adjusted U.S. share during 1990/91-1998/99 was 29 percent. Thus, while the U.S. share is rebounding strongly from 1998/99, it remains weaken than this decade's average performance. The forecast of 5.5 million bales of U.S. exports in 1999/2000 assumes a continuation of current U.S. policies, a standard assumption. Similarly, for China, it is reasonable to assume there is little change in imports in 1999/2000 than the year before. China is currently importing at about a 400,000-bale annual rate, and Chinatex officials have reportedly indicated that the import quota for calendar 1999 would be of a similar order of magnitude. Therefore, in 1999/2000, China is likely to import significantly less than its 1990/91-1998/99 average of 2 million bales per year. China buys about half of its imports from the United States, about double the U.S. share purchased by other countries. Thus, lower than average imports by China probably mean a lower than average U.S. share of world trade. Similarly, the United States has had at least potential access to Step 2 during most of the 1990s to date, and Step 2 has generally operated in a manner that increased U.S. exports. Since an active Step 2 is precluded by current policies, it is reasonable to expect the absence of Step 2 would mean a lower than average U.S. share of world trade in 1999/2000 compared with the rest of the 1990s. U.S. Cotton Estimates Revised Slightly for 1998/99 Small revisions were made this month to each of the 1998/99 U.S. cotton supply and demand estimates. First, the National Agricultural Statistics Service finalized 1998 U.S. production at 13.92 million bales, up marginally from April's estimate. For details of State and regional data, see the table in this report. In addition to production, supply was also elevated slightly by a 50,000-bale increase in the import estimate. As of early May, about 250,000 bales have been imported, according to reports from the Customs Service, with most of these imports attributable to the Step 3 import quotas which have been established since early March. As a result, total supply of U.S. cotton for 1998/99 is estimated at 18.2 million bales. In contrast, total demand, at 14.6 million bales, did not change this month, but offsetting adjustments did occur. While mill use was raised 100,000 bales to 10.5 million, exports were lowered 100,000 bales to 4.1 million. These revisions were made as a result of the most recent data on consumption and shipment rates, respectively. Based on these total supply and demand estimates, U.S. ending stocks on July 31, 1999 are currently estimated at 3.6 million bales, up 100,000 from last month but nearly 300,000 below the beginning level. As a result, the implied stocks-to-use ratio is 24.7 percent, compared with last season's 20.6 percent. U.S. Textile Imports and Exports Expand in February February textile imports, at 892 million (raw-fiber equivalent) pounds, were about 4 percent above January and 14 percent above February 1998. Increased imports of apparel and home furnishings more than offset reductions in the yarn, thread, and fabric and floor coverings categories. While linen, wool, and silk imports declined from January, February textile imports of cotton and manmade fibers increased. Cotton imports, at 510 million pounds, accounted for 57 percent of the February total and were 16 percent above a year earlier. U.S. cotton textile imports from Asia still account for about half of the total, however, increased imports from other North American countries have boosted the region's percentage to 42 percent in February 1999, compared with 39 percent the year before. Similarly, February 1999 textile exports, at 355 million pounds, rose nearly 8 percent from January but were slightly below a year earlier. U.S. textile exports expanded for all major fibers and end-use categories. Cotton exports, at 164 million pounds, was the single largest fiber shipment and accounted for 46 percent of the February total. In addition, February cotton textile exports were 10 percent above January and 8 percent above a year ago. For February 1999, all categories, except home furnishings, increased from the previous month. As usual, U.S. cotton textile exports head mainly to other North American countries, accounting for 88 percent of the February 1999 total. And, Mexico continues to be the leading destination, receiving over 40 percent of the region's total. Although cotton textile exports to other North American countries increased from the year before, all other regions have registered declines. Overall, the cotton textile trade deficit during the first 2 months of 1999 has expanded from a year ago as imports have risen 14 percent while exports have risen only 7 percent. As a result, the deficit for January and February 1999 totaled 673 million pounds, compared with 576 million a year earlier. Special Article: California Cotton Planting Progress and Yields: A Review of 1998 and Implications for 1999 by Leslie Meyer Year in and year out, an abundant cotton crop in California may be the closest thing to a sure bet in U.S. cotton production. With its desert climate, total irrigation, and low abandonment, California upland yields averaging over 1,200 pounds per harvested acre have been commonplace for more than a decade. However, inclement weather has delayed cotton planting there in two of the last four years and, subsequently, yields during these years were reduced more than 20 percent to less than 1,000 pounds per harvested acre. The most recent incident occurred in 1998 when California experienced a wet spring that significantly delayed cotton planting there. Despite the approval for an earlier allowable planting date, California producers had only 25 percent of their 1998 cotton planted by late April, compared with a "normal" average of 70 percent. And by May 10, only 60 percent of the crop was reported planted, compared with an average of over 90 percent. As a result of these delays, an analysis was conducted to determine the relationship between California's cotton planting progress and the State's upland yield and to determine the implications, if any, for average yields in 1998. A double-log function was estimated with ordinary least squares (OLS) using data from the 1987-97 crops. The estimated equation was LN(Y) = 7.13814 + 0.59198 LN(X), where LN(Y) is the natural log of California yields per harvested acre and LN(X) is the natural log of the percentage of California cotton planted nearest to May 10 of the respective years. The equation accounts for 63 percent of the variation in upland yields in California during 1987-97, with a standard error of the estimate equal to 0.068596. For more details about the regression equation, see the May 1998 Cotton and Wool Outlook report (CWS-0298). Based on the results of the OLS regression and the 1998 planting progress, a projection for California's 1998 average upland yield was estimated at 931 pounds per harvested acre. And, based on the standard error of the estimate, chances were two out of three that California's yield would range between 865 and 997 pounds. As of this month, final estimates for 1998 cotton production indicate that California's upland yield equaled 887 pounds per harvested acre, about 5 percent below the equation's projected average but well within the calculated range. While falling behind again early this season, concerns about a repeat of 1998 surfaced. However, planting progress in California has improved dramatically over the past month and is now above the 5-year average (Table 1). So, what are the implications for yield in 1999 with planting progress much improved from a year ago? Based on the estimated equation as presented last year, and incorporating the 90 percent planted as of May 9, 1999, indications are for California's upland yield to average 1,183 pounds per harvested acre in 1999. The standard error around this yield indicates that chances are two out of three that yields will range between 1,099 and 1,267 pounds. Will California's 1999 upland yield fall within this range? Only time will tell once again, but planting progress has been proven to play a significant role in influencing yields in California. A year ago, yields were examined when planting progress was reported 95 percent complete near May 10. During the 5 years where applicable, yields were within the range three of those years and above the upper bound during the remaining two years. Therefore, based on past history and the assumption of "normal" weather for the remainder of the 1999 growing season, implications are for California upland yields to exceed 1,100 pounds per harvested acre in 1999/2000, a much improved outlook from a year ago. Table 1--Cumulative Percent Planted for California Cotton. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Date 1998 Date 1999 5-Year Avg. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ April 5 5 April 4 2 9 April 12 6 April 11 2 18 April 19 10 April 18 30 36 April 26 25 April 25 40 55 May 3 45 May 2 70 72 May 10 60 May 9 90 82 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Source: Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin, USDA. * * * The next Cotton and Wool Outlook (CWS-0599) will be released on June 14, 1999. ***************************************************************************** Information Contacts: Leslie Meyer (U.S. Cotton and Textiles) LMEYER@ECON.AG.GOV (202) 694-5307 Stephen MacDonald (Foreign Cotton) STEPHENM@ECON.AG.GOV (202) 694-5305 Robert Skinner (Textiles and Wool) SKINNER@ECON.AG.GOV (202) 694-5313 ***************************************************************************** U.S. COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998/99 ---------------------------- Item 1997/98 Mar Apr May ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Upland: Million acres Planted 13.648 13.088 13.088 13.064 Harvested 13.157 10.486 10.486 10.449 Pounds Yield/harvested acre 666 612 617 619 Million 480-lb. bales Beginning stocks 3.920 3.822 3.822 3.822 Production 18.245 13.366 13.470 13.476 Total supply 1/ 22.178 17.528 17.627 17.678 Mill use 11.234 10.290 10.275 10.365 Exports 7.060 3.900 3.900 3.800 Total use 18.294 14.190 14.175 14.165 Ending stocks 3.822 3.300 3.400 3.488 Percent Stocks-to-use ratio 20.9 23.3 24.0 24.6 Extra-long staple: 1,000 acres Planted 250 330 330 328 Harvested 249 237 237 235 Pounds Yield/harvested acre 1,056 873 893 904 1,000 480-lb. bales Beginning stocks 51 65 65 65 Production 548 430 440 442 Total supply 1/ 599 505 520 527 Mill use 115 110 125 135 Exports 440 300 300 300 Total use 555 410 425 435 Ending stocks 65 100 100 112 Percent Stocks-to-use ratio 11.7 24.4 23.5 25.7 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA estimates. 1/ Includes imports. WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998/99 ------------------------------ Item 1997/98 Mar Apr May ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Supply: Million 480-lb. bales Beginning stocks World 38.16 41.51 41.41 41.17 Foreign 34.19 37.62 37.52 37.29 Production World 91.60 85.29 84.68 84.07 Foreign 72.80 71.49 70.77 70.15 Imports World 26.66 24.64 24.72 24.80 Foreign 26.65 24.29 24.37 24.40 Use: Mill use World 88.40 85.01 84.72 84.79 Foreign 77.05 74.61 74.32 74.29 Exports World 26.59 23.93 23.84 23.74 Foreign 19.09 19.73 19.64 19.64 Ending stocks World 41.17 42.17 41.92 41.23 Foreign 37.29 38.77 38.42 37.63 Stocks-to-use ratio Percent World 46.6 49.6 49.5 48.6 Foreign 48.4 52.0 51.7 50.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA estimates. FIBER SUPPLY ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1999 1998 --------------------------- Item Jan Feb Mar Mar ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb. bales Ginnings 408 90 0 0 Imports since August 1 28.3 40.5 NA 2.7 Stocks, beginning 10,223 9,597 8,694 11,995 At mills 568 586 605 685 Public storage 9,127 8,677 7,500 9,824 CCC stocks 3,530 3,488 1,522 2,564 Manmade: Million pounds Production 834.6 801.0 864.9 902.7 Noncellulosic 809.1 778.3 840.1 868.7 Cellulosic 25.5 22.7 24.8 34.0 Total since January 1 834.6 1,635.6 2,500.5 2,641.8 1998 1999 1998 ------------------ Dec Jan Feb Feb ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Million pounds Raw fiber imports 123.7 125.8 121.6 114.3 Noncellulosic 117.5 120.3 116.2 105.4 Cellulosic 6.2 5.5 5.4 8.9 Total since January 1 1,500.2 125.8 247.4 241.1 Wool and Mohair: 1,000 pounds Raw wool imports, clean 4,343 6,151 3,553 5,390 48's-and-finer 2,676 4,416 1,649 3,945 Not-finer-than-46's 1,666 1,735 1,905 1,445 Total since January 1 70,508 6,151 9,704 14,180 Wool top imports 217 35 131 60 Total since January 1 2,378 35 166 343 Mohair imports, clean 0 0 0 0 Total since January 1 11 0 0 2 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NA = Not available. COTTON SYSTEM FIBER CONSUMPTION ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1999 1998 --------------------------- Item Jan Feb Mar Mar ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb. bales All consumed by mills 1/ 882 824 933 972 Total since August 1 1/ 5,215 6,039 6,972 7,625 SA annual rate 2/ 10,489 10,461 10,333 11,241 SA daily rate 2/ 40.3 40.2 39.7 43.1 Daily rate 42.0 41.2 40.6 44.2 Upland consumed by mills 1/ 870 811 920 962 Total since August 1 1/ 5,145 5,956 6,876 7,550 SA daily rate 2/ 39.8 39.6 39.2 42.6 Daily rate 41.4 40.6 40.0 43.7 Spindles in place 5,230 5,212 5,221 5,437 Active spindles 4,896 4,871 4,821 5,107 100 percent cotton 2,615 2,608 2,542 2,566 100 percent manmade 744 753 766 774 Blends 1,537 1,510 1,513 1,767 Percent Cotton's share of fibers 79.2 79.7 79.3 77.9 Manmade: 1,000 pounds Total consumed by mills 1/ 110,957 100,718 116,682 132,049 Total since August 1 1/ 641,924 742,642 859,323 994,112 Daily rate 5,284 5,036 5,073 6,002 Noncellulosic staple 4,944 4,689 4,728 5,527 Cellulosic staple 340 347 345 475 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Adjusted to calendar month. 2/ SA = seasonally adjusted. FIBER EXPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998 1999 1998 ----------------- Item Dec Jan Feb Feb ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb. bales Upland exports 1,007 110 148 718 Total since August 1 2,710 2,820 2,968 3,768 Sales for next season 22 27 50 93 Total since August 1 171 198 247 392 ELS exports 19.9 46.4 33.7 59.4 Total since August 1 59.4 105.8 139.5 255.8 Sales for next season 4.4 11.9 3.4 11.9 Total since August 1 13.7 25.6 29.0 39.2 Manmade: Million pounds Raw fiber exports 80.9 71.9 72.7 82.6 Noncellulosic 67.4 69.2 70.0 79.1 Cellulosic 1.9 2.7 2.7 3.5 Total since January 1 1,014.5 71.9 144.6 258.3 Wool and Mohair: 1,000 pounds Raw wool exports, clean 55.0 9.0 124.3 30.8 Total since January 1 1,720.6 9.0 133.3 412.6 Wool top exports 222.9 401.0 356.7 271.4 Total since January 1 5,556.7 401.0 757.7 1,138.8 Mohair exports, clean 404.7 256.0 166.3 30.1 Total since January 1 2,273.7 256.0 422.3 75.4 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FIBER PRICES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1999 1998 --------------------------- Item Feb Mar Apr Apr ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Domestic cotton prices: Cents per pound Adjusted World Price 42.11 42.64 43.97 51.29 May'99 futures 58.72 61.09 59.34 71.04 Dec'99 futures 60.32 59.80 59.63 71.35 Upland spot 41-34 55.46 58.17 57.01 61.88 Pima spot 03-46 94.50 86.37 84.57 102.57 Avg. price received by: Upland producers 56.00 55.30 55.70 63.60 Mill delivered: Cotton Actual 63.39 66.31 64.69 69.50 Raw fiber equivalent 70.43 73.68 71.88 77.22 Rayon staple Actual 101.00 101.00 101.00 115.00 Raw fiber equivalent 105.21 105.21 105.21 119.79 Polyester staple Actual 51.00 51.00 51.00 65.00 Raw fiber equivalent 53.13 53.13 53.13 67.71 Price ratios Percent Cotton/rayon 66.9 70.0 68.3 64.5 Cotton/polyester 132.6 138.7 135.3 114.1 Northern Europe cotton quotes: Cents per pound A Index 56.26 56.74 57.86 65.08 Memphis Territory NQ NQ NQ 71.75 California/Arizona 69.25 71.63 68.40 72.33 B Index 53.30 53.28 NQ 63.85 Orleans/Texas 61.38 64.00 NQ 66.45 Wool prices (clean): Dollars per pound U.S. 56's 0.70 0.65 0.65 1.12 Australian 56's 1/ 1.33 1.36 1.36 1.71 U.S. 60's 0.95 0.95 0.87 1.50 Australian 60's 1/ 1.42 1.47 1.44 1.80 U.S. 64's 1.15 1.15 1.10 1.88 Australian 64's 1/ 1.50 1.57 1.56 2.05 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NQ = No quotes. 1/ In bond, Charleston, SC. TEXTILE TRADE ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998 1999 1998 ------------------ Item Dec Jan Feb Feb ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Imports: 1,000 pounds 1/ Yarn, thread, and fabric 204,841 211,651 210,837 199,034 Cotton 88,033 87,787 87,858 86,309 Linen 22,956 26,678 22,587 23,809 Wool 3,303 3,114 3,404 3,976 Silk 809 736 656 695 Manmade 89,740 93,337 96,332 84,245 Apparel 545,979 559,038 591,226 505,530 Cotton 342,541 340,605 372,491 309,664 Linen 14,661 18,818 16,260 13,840 Wool 12,432 12,371 12,891 12,368 Silk 12,037 15,148 13,400 12,220 Manmade 164,309 172,096 176,385 157,439 House furnishings 48,220 51,081 54,455 45,180 Cotton 34,913 38,059 40,911 34,858 Linen 151 289 184 107 Wool 210 93 82 117 Silk 23 35 24 42 Manmade 12,923 12,606 13,254 10,055 Floor covering 32,414 31,508 29,166 24,256 Cotton 4,934 5,134 4,528 3,871 Linen 4,897 4,283 3,832 2,948 Wool 10,080 9,752 7,074 7,212 Silk 572 627 385 499 Manmade 11,931 11,712 13,347 9,725 Total imports 2/ 838,819 860,074 892,425 780,370 Cotton 474,768 475,496 509,873 438,279 Linen 42,690 50,126 42,907 40,752 Wool 26,090 25,436 23,318 23,727 Silk 13,442 16,547 14,466 13,457 Manmade 281,829 292,469 301,861 264,155 Exports: 1,000 pounds 1/ Yarn, thread, and fabric 137,087 149,985 164,714 166,550 Cotton 47,945 55,517 63,831 55,380 Linen 3,778 4,412 5,419 4,534 Wool 3,487 3,382 4,709 4,361 Silk 1,537 1,540 1,640 1,932 Manmade 80,341 85,133 89,115 100,343 Apparel 142,779 143,649 153,768 153,969 Cotton 85,027 86,649 93,470 88,452 Linen 1,642 1,270 1,658 1,543 Wool 5,861 6,097 6,823 8,986 Silk 3,217 3,235 3,873 4,029 Manmade 47,033 46,398 47,944 50,959 House furnishings 7,591 6,083 6,264 7,298 Cotton 4,853 3,952 3,858 4,417 Linen 221 203 196 455 Wool 49 40 54 126 Silk 49 67 137 190 Manmade 2,418 1,821 2,019 2,110 Floor covering 35,719 28,923 29,805 35,179 Cotton 2,881 2,404 2,410 3,352 Linen 1,538 1,483 1,584 1,941 Wool 2,989 2,352 2,849 2,968 Silk 73 82 91 131 Manmade 28,239 22,601 22,871 26,786 Total exports 2/ 323,392 328,835 354,826 363,312 Cotton 140,769 148,581 163,643 151,671 Linen 7,186 7,375 8,866 8,481 Wool 12,395 11,881 14,446 16,454 Silk 4,875 4,924 5,741 6,283 Manmade 158,166 156,074 162,130 180,423 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Includes headgear. U.S. COTTON TEXTILE IMPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998 1999 1998 -------------------- Item Dec Jan Feb Feb ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 pounds 1/ North America 209,927 166,338 213,528 171,560 Canada 15,908 16,612 18,828 15,238 Costa Rica 8,971 6,174 9,287 7,461 Dominican Republic 23,327 10,407 20,380 17,250 El Salvador 15,845 11,931 15,193 12,865 Guatemala 10,776 8,425 10,695 7,921 Haiti 3,470 2,185 3,365 2,368 Honduras 30,958 23,473 30,744 23,233 Jamaica 5,137 3,647 4,360 6,580 Mexico 92,008 79,999 96,356 75,557 Nicaragua 2,988 3,094 3,701 2,650 South America 8,379 7,327 7,129 6,055 Argentina 10 26 28 27 Brazil 2,336 2,637 1,512 1,970 Chile 32 26 7 53 Colombia 2,891 1,935 2,873 2,083 Peru 2,722 2,225 2,147 1,568 Europe 24,830 25,107 27,054 25,558 Estonia 915 639 446 686 France 490 599 685 606 Germany 780 433 700 655 Italy 3,510 2,696 3,302 2,806 Portugal 2,709 2,203 2,336 2,204 Russia 675 707 648 1,115 Spain 1,251 828 983 828 Turkey 9,156 12,284 13,483 12,056 United Kingdom 1,609 948 1,005 1,043 Asia 216,104 260,792 247,540 222,022 Bahrain 1,143 1,017 1,188 927 Bangladesh 11,907 21,566 17,102 17,840 China 27,589 32,767 32,477 32,660 Hong Kong 28,083 28,773 28,700 21,805 India 23,742 31,732 32,072 30,045 Indonesia 10,467 14,912 13,868 15,826 Israel 2,797 3,145 2,998 2,143 Japan 1,479 1,295 1,224 1,079 Macao 6,535 6,756 6,483 3,834 Malaysia 5,942 6,576 5,116 3,972 Nepal 1,642 1,940 2,178 1,488 Oman 1,592 1,878 1,789 1,521 Pakistan 28,143 30,533 31,208 35,509 Philippines 9,207 12,038 11,178 8,379 Qator 977 1,208 1,765 1,300 Singapore 2,605 2,433 2,434 2,296 South Korea 7,233 9,330 8,575 5,537 Sri Lanka 6,394 10,084 9,144 7,412 Taiwan 12,854 13,764 12,141 8,707 Thailand 11,884 12,841 10,645 10,501 U Arab Em 1,631 2,590 2,552 2,188 Oceania 1,429 2,456 1,593 1,515 Australia 1,044 654 794 820 Fiji 106 1,546 584 526 Africa 14,099 13,476 13,029 11,569 Egypt 6,124 5,671 6,660 6,019 Lesotho 1,722 1,560 1,288 1,263 Mauritius 2,064 2,079 1,647 1,548 Morocco 1,263 900 919 974 South Africa 963 1,173 529 363 Tunisia 55 85 82 73 World 2/ 474,768 475,496 509,873 438,279 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding. U.S. COTTON TEXTILE EXPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998 1999 1998 ----------------- Country Dec Jan Feb Feb ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 pounds 1/ North America 124,049 129,573 144,006 123,734 Canada 21,870 24,826 25,924 27,049 Costa Rica 5,195 6,166 6,286 6,970 Dominican Republic 12,764 12,945 14,143 14,550 El Salvador 5,081 5,282 6,194 6,382 Guatemala 2,779 2,620 2,703 3,334 Haiti 2,123 2,022 1,576 1,420 Honduras 17,139 15,754 19,448 16,309 Jamaica 3,988 2,765 3,784 4,739 Mexico 51,019 55,782 62,414 41,493 South America 3,658 3,210 2,963 4,791 Argentina 182 141 188 231 Brazil 312 404 379 684 Chile 1,022 949 321 726 Colombia 1,198 1,076 939 1,467 Peru 133 82 79 70 Venezuela 426 279 703 1,301 Europe 5,094 7,804 7,997 12,649 Belgium 586 1,824 2,513 3,473 France 459 292 315 317 Germany 807 752 727 1,172 Ireland 145 90 91 946 Italy 238 760 235 470 Netherlands 492 695 552 803 United Kingdom 1,225 2,568 2,161 3,862 Asia 6,387 6,757 7,052 8,583 China 271 115 230 160 Hong Kong 881 717 798 1,184 Israel 534 686 514 1,125 Japan 2,511 2,955 3,397 3,816 Philippines 124 267 241 290 Saudi Arabia 514 527 386 279 Singapore 288 192 185 193 South Korea 285 323 273 149 Taiwan 235 149 208 295 U Arab Em 198 235 193 350 Oceania 752 623 680 932 Australia 610 484 476 672 New Zealand 72 50 105 97 Africa 828 613 945 982 Egypt 53 3 18 77 Ghana 13 2 1 20 Ivory Coast 19 44 90 30 Nigeria 276 179 185 298 South Africa 179 84 286 175 World 2/ 140,769 148,581 163,643 151,671 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding. FINAL 1998 U.S. COTTON ACREAGE, YIELD, AND PRODUCTION ------------------------------------------------------------------- State/ Region Planted Harvested Yield Production ------------------------------------------------------------------- Lbs./ 1,000 1,000 acres harvested acre bales Upland: Alabama 495 475 559 553 Florida 89 80 489 81 Georgia 1,370 1,280 578 1,542 N. Carolina 710 705 699 1,026 S. Carolina 290 286 587 350 Virginia 92 91 765 145 Southeast 3,046 2,917 608 3,697 Arkansas 920 900 645 1,209 Louisiana 535 525 586 641 Mississippi 950 940 737 1,444 Missouri 370 357 471 350 Tennessee 450 445 589 546 Delta 3,225 3,167 635 4,190 Kansas 17 17 404 14 Oklahoma 160 120 560 140 Texas 5,650 3,300 524 3,600 Southwest 5,827 3,437 524 3,754 Arizona 250 248 1,177 608 California 650 620 887 1,146 New Mexico 66 60 640 80 West 966 928 949 1,834 Total Upland 13,064 10,449 619 13,476 Pima: Arizona 16 15 830 27 California 200 180 941 353 New Mexico 7 7 658 10 Texas 105 32 791 53 Total Pima 328 235 904 442 Total All 13,392 10,684 625 13,918 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA's May 1999 Crop Production report. END_OF_FILE