COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK July 13, 1999 July 1999, CWS-0699 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK is issued 10 times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no published copies are available. COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK is supplemented by an annual COTTON AND WOOL YEARBOOK. The yearbook summary for 1999 will be released on November 22, 1999. Yearbooks are available in print from ERS-NASS Order Desk. For the 1999 issue, call 1-800-999-6779 (703-605-6220) and ask for stock #ERS-CWS-1999, $21. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS Cotton Area Raised Further in 1999 Higher Production and Offtake Projected Foreign Consumption Rebounds, but Production Flat in 1999/2000 Foreign Area Drops Only Slightly in 1999/2000 Consumption Partly Rebounds in 1999/2000 Foreign Imports and U.S. Exports Higher in 1999/2000 Textile Trade Decline From a Month Earlier Cotton Area Raised Further in 1999 According to USDA's June Acreage report, U.S. producers have planted nearly 14.6 million acres of cotton this season. The revised cotton area is 615,000 acres (4 percent) above the March Prospective Plantings and nearly 1.2 million above 1998/99. The increase from last season is attributable to favorable relative net returns for cotton over competing crops and the improvement in planting conditions this season, particularly on the High Plains of Texas. Upland cotton acreage rose 9 percent from last season to 14.2 million acres. Each region, except the West, reported area gains of more than 300,000 acres from the 1998/99 season. The Southwest rose 6 percent to nearly 6.2 million acres, the Delta expanded 17 percent to nearly 3.8 million, and the Southeast increased 12 percent to about 3.4 million. The West declined 4 percent to 930,000 acres. Based on the Acreage report, the largest upland increase came from the Delta, which rose more than 500,000 acres from last season. ELS area, on the other hand, declined slightly from a year ago to 318,000 acres. While changes in Texas (down 65,000 acres) and California (up 60,000 acres) were nearly offsetting, the implications for production are more significant as California ELS yields have surpassed those in Texas by more than 200 pounds per harvested acre over the last 5 years. Despite some crop damage experienced recently in Texas, overall U.S. crop conditions have remained favorable. As of July 11, 60 percent of the cotton acreage was in "good" or "excellent" condition, compared with only 34 percent in 1998. In contrast, only 14 percent of the U.S. crop is considered "poor" or "very poor" this season, compared with last season's 35 percent. While conditions this season are better than those posted a year ago, the development of the crop is behind both 1998 and the 5-year average. As of July 11, 77 percent of the crop was squaring, compared with 80 percent for both 1998 and the 5-year average. Similarly, 27 percent of the cotton area was setting bolls, compared with 42 percent last season and an average of 32 percent. Higher Production and Offtake Projected As a result of the increased acreage reported in June, the 1999 U.S. cotton production forecast was raised 700,000 bales this month to 18.7 million, well above 1998/99's 13.9 million but similar to the 1997 crop. The increase from last season is the result of not only larger area, but also an anticipated return to more normal abandonment. In 1999, abandonment is forecast at only 7 percent, resulting in harvested area of 13.5 million acres. Last season, abandonment approached 20 percent. Based on these area and production estimates, the national average yield is forecast at 665 pounds per harvested acre, slightly below the long-term trend. On August 12, the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) will provide their initial survey projections of cotton area to be harvested, yield, and production, as well as an update on the planted acreage. With higher U.S. production projected and carryin stocks estimated at 3.6 million bales, total 1999/2000 cotton supplies are expected to rise significantly. For only the third time in more than three decades, U.S. cotton supplies are likely to exceed 22 million bales. Total demand, although expected to rise nearly 12 percent in 1999/2000, is not likely to rise as fast as production. Mill use is forecast at 10.6 million bales, only slightly above 1998/99 as the recent surge in textile imports have limited the U.S. mills' need to increase use dramatically. On the other hand, exports are projected to rebound to 5.7 million bales, 37 percent higher than the current season but still below the 5-year average as an expected abundance of foreign production will once again compete for a limited increase in world cotton consumption. Despite the anticipated improvement in U.S. cotton demand for the upcoming season, these estimates assume the continuation of current legislation and do not include any additional demand that may result from the revival of the "Step 2" program. Based on these early projections, ending stocks are forecast to reach 6 million bales by July 31, 2000, a stocks-to-use ratio of nearly 37 percent. At these levels, both ending stocks and the stocks-to-use ratio would be the highest since 1988. Foreign Consumption Rebounds, But Production Flat in 1999/2000 While foreign consumption is forecast to rise nearly 2 million bales from the year before in 1999/2000, foreign cotton production is forecast virtually unchanged at 70.5 million. While consumption is forecast higher than a year earlier, at 76.3 million bales, this would still be less consumption than in 1997/98 and 1996/97. Exports from other countries are forecast slightly higher than the year before in 1999/2000, up about 300,000 bales to 19.6 million; foreign imports are forecast 1.3 million bales higher than the year before, to 25.7 million. Foreign ending stocks are forecast about unchanged, but at 37.5 million bales, ending stocks as a share of consumption are expected to be slightly lower than in 1998/99. Larger expected U.S. supplies, combined with increased foreign consumption and imports, are expected to result in higher U.S. exports in 1999/2000, up 1.6 million bales to 5.7 million. The U.S. share of world trade is expected to reach 22.5 percent in 1999/2000, up from 18 percent in 1998/99 and near the U.S. average achieved since the initiation of the marketing loan program in 1986/87. Foreign Area Drops Only Slightly in 1999/2000 Despite consistently negative developments in world prices during 1998/99, foreign cotton area in 1999/2000 is forecast only 1 percent lower than the year before. At 28.2 million hectares, it remains slightly above its 1986-98 average of 27.9 million. While India and China--the two largest foreign cotton producers--are each expected to reduce area by at least 150,000 hectares, in percentage terms these only amount to declines of 2 and 3 percent, respectively. In addition, declines of between 50,000 and 100,000 hectares are forecast for Argentina, Mexico, and Australia. However, increases of between 50,000 and 100,000 hectares are foreseen for Pakistan, Sudan, Paraguay, and Brazil. These increases are, in part, accounted for by recoveries from unusual weather in 1998/99, government efforts to promote cotton, and, in the case of Brazil, a long-delayed currency devaluation. Production of cotton outside the United States is forecast about unchanged from the year before in 1999/2000 as rebounding production in Uzbekistan and Pakistan offsets a 1.2-million-bale decline foreseen for China's output. At 19.5 million bales, China's production is expected to be about 6 percent lower than 1998/99. Cotton policy in China is undergoing significant changes, and a goal of the government is to reduce the size of the cotton harvest. The government's production target was reportedly about 16 million bales, which would have been the smallest crop since 1981. However, falling prices for grains have in part sustained cotton area at about 4.3 million hectares. But, the prospect of substantially weaker cotton prices after September 1 could result in reduced input use and yields this year, and China's national average yield is forecast to fall almost 4 percent from the year before. The growing relative importance of the high-yielding Xinjiang-Uighur Autonomous Region will again sustain the average yield even if every province's yield is lower. Production in Uzbekistan is expected to rebound by 700,000 bales in 1999/2000 following a return to more normal June temperatures this year. Uzbekistan's cotton crop fell by more than 600,000 bales in 1998/99 due to cool early-season temperatures, and, with area essentially unchanged since 1994, production is likely to rebound to 5.3 million bales. While higher than one year earlier, Uzbekistan's production is still expected to be significantly below its pre-1996 levels. Pakistan's crop is also expected to rebound by 700,000 bales in 1999/2000, to 7 million. The Pakistan Central Cotton Committee has reportedly set a production target of 7.6 million bales, but such targets have typically proven optimistic in recent years. Pakistan's cotton yield fell 10 percent in 1998/99 to its lowest since the early 1980's. While the unfavorable weather that cut yields is not expected to be repeated, it remains to be seen if Pakistan can overcome its chronic pest problems. Crop increases of between 100,000 and 140,000 bales, compared with the year before, are foreseen for Chad, Sudan, Burkina Faso, Australia, and Brazil. Increases of 50,000 to 65,000 are foreseen for Tanzania, Paraguay, Senegal, and Peru. A 350,000 bale decline is foreseen for Mexico's cotton harvest in 1999/2000 due to low world prices and a drought. Prices for cotton fell in India during 1998/99--albeit, not as substantially as prices on world markets--and cotton production there is expected to fall 150,000 bales as area declines and weather remains comparable with previous seasons. A regional drought is expected to help bring down crops in Syria and Israel by about 100,000 bales each, and declines of 50,000 bales each are foreseen for Egypt, Benin, and Turkey. Consumption Partly Rebounds in 1999/2000 After a severe decline in 1998/99--down 3 percent--foreign consumption is expected to increase by 2.3 percent in 1999/2000, to 76.3 million bales. While no increase is expected for the world's largest consumer, China, a number of countries are expected to increase their consumption in 1999/2000, and declining consumption is foreseen for very few countries, as lower cotton prices and rebounding economies spur demand. The largest increase is expected in India, where cotton use is forecast to rebound 500,000 bales to 12.7 million, about as much consumption as in 1997/98. India's garment exports have reportedly been performing well in 1999, its economy is forecast to grow at a 5.5-percent rate in 2000, and the economic improvement observed for Southeast Asia in 1999 could ameliorate the difficulties with yarn exports India reported earlier in the current marketing year. Brazil's financial crisis appears to be less damaging than was expected a few months ago, and the devaluation of its currency during the last year seems likely to improve the competitiveness of its textile industry. Brazilian cotton consumption is forecast to rise 350,000 bales to 3.6 million. According to Oxford Economic Associates, Brazil's economy grew 0.2 percent in 1998, will shrink 1.6 percent in 1999, and grow 2.3 percent in 2000. Brazil's cotton consumption is expected to remain below the 3.9- to 4.0-million-bale level achieved during 1993-96, it is forecast to rise 11 percent in 1999/2000 from the year before. Consumption in Mexico and Turkey in 1999/2000 is forecast to rise 250,000 bales each compared with the year before, and increases of between 50,000 and 100,000 bales each are forecast for Indonesia, Pakistan, Taiwan, South Korea, Bangladesh, and Portugal. Italy is the only country where a significant consumption decline is foreseen, a 150,000-bale drop to 1.4 million. Declines of 50,000 bales each are foreseen for consumption in Russia and Egypt. China's consumption is not forecast to rebound in 1999/2000. It fell 3 percent in 1997/98 and 4 percent in 1998/99, but its direction in the coming year is unclear. Yarn production (all fibers) has turned upwards in China in recent months, but exports and consumer demand there remains weak, suggesting that higher yarn production could begin to add to yarn stocks and constrain production in the slightly longer run. On the other hand, growing unemployment has dulled some of the ardor for rapid reform of state-owned enterprises, and may also take some of the momentum out of efforts to reduce the number of cotton spindles. Also, the textile industry's net trade position may improve as 1999 progresses, due to lower cotton prices, streamlined exporting regulations, increased value-added tax (VAT) rebates for exports, and efforts to reduce import smuggling. Given the substantial uncertainties, it seems reasonable to assume no change in China's cotton consumption in 1999/2000 from the 20 million bales estimated for 1998/99. Foreign Imports and U.S. Exports Higher in 1999/2000 An improved outlook for foreign imports is a crucial component of the expectation of increased U.S. exports in 1999/2000. While world imports are expected to rise only 1 million bales from the year before in 1999/2000, foreign imports are forecast 1.3 million bales higher, at 25.7 million. The only significant foreign import decline foreseen is in Pakistan, where improved production is expected to drive imports 250,000 bales lower. Higher imports are expected foremost in Mexico--550,000 bales--and Brazil--300,000 bales. Import increases between 75,000 and 150,000 bales are expected I n Indonesia, Turkey, South Korea, Taiwan, Egypt, and Thailand. Despite these increases, expected imports in 1999/2000 remain millions of bales below the averages achieved during 1986-98 and during the 1990's. The U.S. share of world trade in 1999/2000 is forecast to reach 22.5 percent, below its 1986-98 average of 24 percent. But, the U.S. share of world trade in 1999/2000 is forecast above the 20 percent share achieved in 1992/93 (the last time U.S. stocks/use rose as high as 30 percent). In 1992/93, Russia was importing about 2.7 million bales of cotton under arrangements that largely precluded importing from the United States. Since Russia is now forecast to import only about one-third as much cotton in 1999/2000 as it did in 1992/93, world trade is diminished by that amount, but U.S. export opportunities are relatively better. Recalculating the U.S. share of world trade after Former Soviet Union (FSU) imports are subtracted shows an expected U.S. share of world trade in 1999/2000 that is essentially the same as in 1992/93. In contrast, U.S. exports in 1999/2000 are forecast more than 1 million bales below their 1986-98 average, despite above-average supplies. By this measure, the current forecast for U.S. exports is conservative, reflecting in part the offsetting effects of forecasted increased production and exports by a number of the United States' major competitors. Uzbekistan's exports are expected to increase 500,000 bales from the year before, in large part due to improved production. Similarly, Africa's Franc Zone is expected to export about 200,000 additional bales in 1999/2000, and India's exports are expected to rise 150,000 bales. With larger crops, larger exports are also expected from Pakistan, Sudan, Paraguay, and Peru, but in each case the expected increase is less than 100,000 bales. Larger exports are also forecast from China, up 300,000 bales to 1 million, as late-season sales from 1998/99 are shipped during the next marketing year, and as 1999/2000 crop cotton, unencumbered by procurement and storage debts and procured at substantially lower prices, becomes available. Exports of 1 million bales would leave China with smaller ending stocks for the first time in 5 years, even with a relatively large crop, and no increase in consumption. It would also represent a 3-year pattern of export growth comparable to that for 1981-84, the previous period of large export gains. USDA substantially overestimated China's 1998/99 exports earlier in the season as rapid price changes on world markets apparently outpaced China's ability to develop a consensus on, and then implement, policies designed to increase exports. Since some of these rapid price changes reflected world perceptions about China's intentions, any 1999/2000 forecast about China's exports must again take into account the feedback world prices could have on China's willingness to use trade policy to pursue its goal of adjusting its domestic supply-demand balance. On the one hand, the trend over the course of the last year has been one of increasing exports, and as China devises new sets of solutions to sets of impediments to exporting, one could conjecture the development of "momentum" at either a commercial or policy-making level that permits later realization of substantially larger exports. On the other hand, most estimates of the outlook for world cotton supply and demand do not appear to hold much in the way of prospects for significantly larger exports by China. The 43-percent increase in China's export forecast for 1999/2000 provides a reasonable balance between China's increasing export prowess and the realities of world market demand. Textile Trade Declines From a Month Earlier April textile trade data indicate imports declined 12 percent from a month earlier to 858 million pounds (raw-fiber equivalent). April shipments were the lowest of 1999, but were still 5 percent above a year earlier. Overall, imports of all fibers and all end-use categories were below March levels. Cotton textile imports, at 488 million pounds, accounted for 57 percent of all textile shipments, the same share as in March. Total U.S. exports in April decreased 2 percent from the previous month, but were 7 percent above a year earlier. Shipments of all fibers, except linen, declined from month-earlier levels. In addition all major end-use categories, except apparel, were below March shipments. Apparel exports at 173 million pounds, accounted for 43 percent of total April shipments and were 5 percent above a year-ago. Overall, the April textile trade deficit was 456 million pounds, with cotton accounting for 66 percent of the total (300 million pounds). The April deficit declined 19 percent from a month earlier, but was 4 percent above April 1998. The deficit for the first 4 months of 1999 was 2.1 billion pounds, compared with 1.7 billion a year ago. With textile exports about matching 1998 shipments and increasing textile imports, the textile trade deficit will likely increase again in 1999. * * * * * The next Cotton and Wool Outlook (CWS-0799) will be released on August 13, 1999. ***************************************************************** Information Contacts: Leslie Meyer (U.S. Cotton and Textiles) LMEYER@ECON.AG.GOV (202) 694-5307 Stephen MacDonald (Foreign Cotton) STEPHENM@ECON.AG.GOV (202) 694-5305 Robert Skinner (Textiles and Wool) RSKINNER@ECON.AG.GOV (202) 694-5313 ***************************************************************** U.S. COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998/99 ---------------------------- Item 1997/98 May Jun Jul ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Upland: Million acres Planted 13.648 13.064 13.064 13.064 Harvested 13.157 10.449 10.449 10.449 Pounds Yield/harvested acre 666 619 619 619 Million 480-lb. bales Beginning stocks 3.920 3.822 3.822 3.822 Production 18.245 13.476 13.476 13.476 Total supply 1/ 22.178 17.678 17.678 17.678 Mill use 11.234 10.365 10.365 10.305 Exports 7.060 3.800 3.800 3.850 Total use 18.294 14.165 14.165 14.155 Ending stocks 3.822 3.488 3.488 3.498 Percent Stocks-to-use ratio 20.9 24.6 24.6 24.7 Extra-long staple: 1,000 acres Planted 250 328 328 328 Harvested 249 235 235 235 Pounds Yield/harvested acre 1,056 904 904 904 1,000 480-lb. bales Beginning stocks 51 65 65 65 Production 548 442 442 442 Total supply 1/ 599 527 527 527 Mill use 115 135 135 145 Exports 440 300 300 300 Total use 555 435 435 445 Ending stocks 65 112 112 107 Percent Stocks-to-use ratio 11.7 25.7 25.7 24.0 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA estimates. 1/ Includes imports. WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998/99 ------------------------------ Item 1997/98 May Jun Jul ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Supply: Million 480-lb. bales Beginning stocks World 38.18 41.17 40.85 40.76 Foreign 34.20 37.29 36.96 36.88 Production World 91.58 84.07 84.35 84.36 Foreign 72.79 70.15 70.43 70.44 Imports World 26.39 24.80 24.50 24.72 Foreign 26.38 24.40 24.10 24.32 Use: Mill use World 88.45 84.79 84.71 85.00 Foreign 77.10 74.29 74.21 74.55 Exports World 26.64 23.74 23.60 23.52 Foreign 19.14 19.64 19.50 19.37 Ending stocks World 40.76 41.23 41.08 41.01 Foreign 36.88 37.63 37.48 37.41 Stocks-to-use ratio Percent World 46.1 48.6 48.5 48.2 Foreign 47.8 50.7 50.5 50.2 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA estimates. FIBER SUPPLY ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1999 1998 --------------------------- Item Mar Apr May May ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb. bales Ginnings 0 0 0 0 Imports since August 1 84.1 203.5 NA 13.0 Stocks, beginning 8,698 7,581 6,642 8,411 At mills 605 570 593 733 Public storage 7,500 6,780 5,629 6,832 CCC stocks 1,522 800 650 2,453 Manmade: Million pounds Production 872.5 872.7 851.8 864.0 Noncellulosic 847.7 846.7 826.1 831.9 Cellulosic 24.8 26.0 25.7 32.1 Total since January 1 2,502.0 3,374.7 4,226.5 4,312.1 1999 1998 ---------------------------- Feb Mar Apr Apr ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Million pounds Raw fiber imports 121.4 140.0 132.6 118.7 Noncellulosic 116.2 132.6 126.7 111.7 Cellulosic 5.2 7.4 5.6 7.0 Total since January 1 231.6 371.6 503.9 443.1 Wool and Mohair: 1,000 pounds Raw wool imports, clean 3,553 3,882 4,624 7,872 48's-and-finer 1,649 1,689 1,908 5,742 Not-finer-than-46's 1,905 2,193 2,716 2,130 Total since January 1 9,704 13,586 18,210 29,282 Wool top imports 28 235 208 218 Total since January 1 63 298 506 766 Mohair imports, clean 0 0 0 0 Total since January 1 0 0 0 2 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NA = Not available. COTTON SYSTEM FIBER CONSUMPTION ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1999 1998 --------------------------- Item Mar Apr May May ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb. bales All consumed by mills 1/ 940 888 861 934 Total since August 1 1/ 6,979 7,867 8,729 9,515 SA annual rate 2/ 10,371 10,218 10,248 11,163 SA daily rate 2/ 39.9 39.3 39.4 42.8 Daily rate 40.9 40.4 41.0 44.5 Upland consumed by mills 1/ 926 875 847 924 Total since August 1 1/ 6,883 7,757 8,604 9,420 SA daily rate 2/ 39.3 38.7 38.7 42.3 Daily rate 40.3 39.8 40.3 44.0 Spindles in place 5,223 5,225 5,174 5,440 Active spindles 4,784 4,794 4,669 5,082 100 percent cotton 2,519 2,553 2,539 2,595 100 percent manmade 766 770 754 800 Blends 1,499 1,471 1,376 1,687 Percent Cotton's share of fibers 79.5 79.2 78.8 78.1 Manmade: 1,000 pounds Total consumed by mills 1/ 116,618 112,096 111,414 125,445 Total since August 1 1/ 859,260 971,356 1,082,770 1,248,074 Daily rate 5,070 5,095 5,305 5,974 Noncellulosic staple 4,722 4,768 4,974 5,529 Cellulosic staple 348 327 331 445 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Adjusted to calendar month. 2/ SA = seasonally adjusted. FIBER EXPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1999 1998 -------------------------- Item Feb Mar Apr Apr ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb. bales Upland exports 148 177 137 618 Total since August 1 2,968 3,145 3,282 5,208 Sales for next season 50 181 109 229 Total since August 1 247 428 537 846 ELS exports 33.7 44.6 32.1 51.4 Total since August 1 139.5 184.1 216.2 372.8 Sales for next season 3.4 21.3 22.3 15.7 Total since August 1 29.0 50.3 72.6 109.9 Manmade: Million pounds Raw fiber exports 72.7 82.1 79.5 91.0 Noncellulosic 70.0 78.7 77.2 88.0 Cellulosic 2.7 3.4 2.3 3.0 Total since January 1 148.7 230.8 310.3 1,793.1 Wool and Mohair: 1,000 pounds Raw wool exports, clean 124.3 145.7 496.7 23.1 Total since January 1 133.4 279.1 775.8 682.8 Wool top exports 356.7 386.6 792.9 836.7 Total since January 1 757.7 1,144.3 1,937.2 2,519.8 Mohair exports, clean 166.3 311.1 492.4 336.5 Total since January 1 422.3 733.4 1,225.8 485.1 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FIBER PRICES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1999 1998 --------------------------- Item Apr May Jun Jun ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cents per pound Domestic cotton prices: Adjusted World Price 43.97 45.39 43.38 55.43 Jul'99 futures 60.11 58.38 60.46 75.03 Dec'99 futures 59.63 58.59 56.24 72.82 Upland spot 41-34 57.01 55.54 53.74 73.50 Pima spot 03-46 84.57 82.73 82.50 104.00 Avg. price received by: Upland producers 56.70 56.10 56.60 69.70 Mill delivered: Cotton Actual 64.69 63.17 60.87 80.87 Raw fiber equivalent 71.88 70.19 67.63 89.86 Rayon staple Actual 101.00 100.00 101.00 115.00 Raw fiber equivalent 105.21 104.17 105.21 119.79 Polyester staple Actual 50.00 50.00 51.00 64.00 Raw fiber equivalent 52.08 52.08 53.13 66.67 Price ratios Percent Cotton/rayon 68.3 67.4 64.3 75.0 Cotton/polyester 138.0 134.8 127.3 134.8 Northern Europe cotton quotes: Cents per pound A Index 57.86 59.85 58.68 68.06 Memphis Territory NQ NQ NQ 80.63 California/Arizona 68.40 65.31 64.25 NQ B Index NQ NQ NQ NQ Orleans/Texas NQ NQ NQ 75.44 Wool prices (clean): Dollars per pound U.S. 56's 0.65 0.65 0.65 1.06 Australian 56's 1/ 1.36 1.36 1.33 1.56 U.S. 60's 0.87 0.87 0.92 1.43 Australian 60's 1/ 1.44 1.43 1.38 1.64 U.S. 64's 1.10 1.17 1.22 1.70 Australian 64's 1/ 1.56 1.50 1.49 1.79 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- NQ = No quotes. 1/ In bond, Charleston, SC. TEXTILE TRADE ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1999 1998 ---------------------------- Item Feb Mar Apr Apr ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Imports: 1,000 pounds 1/ Yarn, thread, and fabric 210,837 246,340 229,100 242,676 Cotton 87,858 101,927 97,485 104,149 Linen 22,587 27,186 19,677 27,112 Wool 3,404 4,303 3,853 4,520 Silk 656 752 734 870 Manmade 96,332 112,172 107,351 106,025 Apparel 591,226 552,573 530,524 488,201 Cotton 372,491 400,118 337,526 295,773 Linen 16,260 14,830 12,038 11,359 Wool 12,691 12,926 12,404 13,988 Silk 13,400 12,527 10,337 10,143 Manmade 176,385 112,172 158,209 156,938 House furnishings 54,455 59,740 57,604 49,983 Cotton 40,911 44,522 43,113 38,088 Linen 184 338 197 149 Wool 82 84 102 163 Silk 24 40 128 17 Manmade 13,254 14,792 14,064 11,566 Floor covering 29,166 34,615 33,900 28,106 Cotton 4,528 4,964 5,335 4,195 Linen 3,832 5,202 4,752 3,456 Wool 7,074 9,285 8,667 9,247 Silk 385 775 432 585 Manmade 13,347 14,089 14,714 10,623 Total imports 2/ 892,425 972,025 858,369 816,409 Cotton 509,873 555,799 487,776 446,166 Linen 42,907 47,621 36,698 42,123 Wool 23,318 26,688 25,156 28,001 Silk 14,466 14,094 11,631 11,616 Manmade 301,861 327,822 297,108 288,503 Exports: 1,000 pounds 1/ Yarn, thread, and fabric 164,714 192,556 188,123 171,030 Cotton 63,831 75,160 72,490 56,520 Linen 5,419 5,714 5,748 5,239 Wool 4,709 5,577 5,950 4,382 Silk 1,640 2,034 2,310 1,832 Manmade 89,115 104,071 101,625 103,057 Apparel 153,768 172,575 173,172 165,176 Cotton 93,470 105,259 108,985 99,296 Linen 1,658 1,770 2,069 1,703 Wool 6,823 7,450 6,418 8,632 Silk 3,873 4,102 3,647 3,707 Manmade 47,944 53,994 52,053 51,838 House furnishings 6,264 6,972 5,607 6,025 Cotton 3,858 4,255 3,386 3,827 Linen 196 245 166 271 Wool 54 57 54 61 Silk 137 120 109 135 Manmade 2,019 2,295 1,892 1,731 Floor covering 29,805 38,948 35,306 34,302 Cotton 2,410 3,02 2,733 3,100 Linen 1,584 1,819 1,608 1,635 Wool 2,849 3,657 3,262 3,071 Silk 91 93 84 84 Manmade 22,871 30,350 27,619 26,412 Total exports 2/ 354,826 411,427 402,462 376,919 Cotton 163,643 187,784 187,670 162,829 Linen 8,866 9,558 9,598 8,858 Wool 14,446 16,761 15,696 16,163 Silk 5,741 6,349 6,150 5,758 Manmade 162,130 190,974 183,347 183,312 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Includes headgear. U.S. COTTON TEXTILE IMPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1999 1998 ----------------------------- Item Feb Mar Apr Apr ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 pounds 1/ North America 213,528 254,320 216,967 178,993 Canada 18,828 22,133 21,313 16,828 Costa Rica 9,287 9,381 8,356 7,460 Dominican Republic 20,380 25,964 21,648 18,644 El Salvador 15,193 18,452 17,838 13,107 Guatemala 10,695 11,394 10,014 7,654 Haiti 3,365 3,940 3,645 2,690 Honduras 30,744 38,759 27,449 21,402 Jamaica 4,360 5,170 3,561 6,660 Mexico 96,356 114,581 100,336 81,644 Nicaragua 3,701 4,038 3,259 2,489 South America 7,129 8,576 7,704 6,888 Argentina 28 25 16 21 Brazil 1,512 2,414 1,856 2,608 Chile 7 21 17 17 Colombia 2,873 3,009 2,643 2,037 Peru 2,147 2,654 2,660 1,730 Europe 27,054 29,986 30,222 27,986 Estonia 446 483 627 987 France 685 728 535 620 Germany 700 834 799 894 Italy 3,302 3,466 2,919 3,018 Portugal 2,336 2,074 3,714 2,578 Russia 648 740 994 1,088 Spain 983 1,007 1,254 1,138 Turkey 13,483 15,684 14,438 13,014 United Kingdom 1,005 1,244 1,091 930 Asia 247,540 244,144 219,342 215,733 Bahrain 1,188 1,311 778 745 Bangladesh 17,102 15,158 13,768 12,790 China 32,477 31,704 28,329 29,230 Hong Kong 28,700 20,373 21,899 21,323 India 32,072 37,978 30,534 21,775 Indonesia 13,868 12,380 11,213 14,093 Israel 2,998 3,191 3,365 1,747 Japan 1,224 1,373 1,188 1,341 Macao 6,483 5,016 4,059 2,937 Malaysia 5,116 6,406 5,217 4,185 Nepal 2,178 2,653 1,863 1,593 Oman 1,789 2,079 1,569 1,336 Pakistan 31,208 31,648 32,059 34,323 Philippines 11,178 10,973 8,579 9,227 Qatar 1,765 1,226 964 1,369 Singapore 2,434 2,712 2,031 1,780 South Korea 8,575 8,930 8,542 7,976 Sri Lanka 9,144 10,006 7,941 7,311 Taiwan 12,141 10,896 10,467 10,398 Thailand 10,645 11,203 11,385 10,352 U Arab Em 2,552 2,840 2,496 2,786 Oceania 1,593 2,003 1,377 1,952 Australia 794 939 674 1,187 Fiji 584 768 532 523 Africa 13,029 16,769 12,164 14,614 Egypt 6,660 7,963 4,864 8,221 Lesotho 1,288 1,859 1,462 728 Mauritius 1,647 2,298 1,766 1,756 Morocco 919 1,070 1,183 1,464 South Africa 529 1,305 991 737 Tunisia 82 153 41 74 World 2/ 509,873 555,799 487,776 446,166 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding. U.S. COTTON TEXTILE EXPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1999 1998 ----------------------------- Country Feb Mar Apr Apr ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 pounds 1/ North America 144,006 165,363 167,401 135,953 Canada 25,924 30,699 28,855 27,296 Costa Rica 6,286 6,370 6,565 6,638 Dominican Republic 14,143 16,746 17,232 14,744 El Salvador 6,194 7,275 5,992 6,270 Guatemala 2,703 3,673 3,699 3,796 Haiti 1,576 1,891 2,353 1,253 Honduras 19,448 24,557 25,874 18,557 Jamaica 3,784 3,338 3,265 4,183 Mexico 62,414 69,015 71,929 50,801 South America 2,963 3,814 3,731 2,591 Argentina 188 170 203 120 Brazil 379 210 263 579 Chile 321 655 572 473 Colombia 939 1,262 1,458 1,637 Peru 79 135 49 98 Venezuela 703 1,060 864 1,352 Europe 7,997 8,281 7,508 11,901 Belgium 2,513 2,145 2,152 2,675 France 315 311 426 675 Germany 727 797 645 1,479 Ireland 91 86 105 1,684 Italy 235 316 331 296 Netherlands 552 511 368 750 United Kingdom 2,161 2,735 2,269 2,735 Asia 7,052 8,783 7,797 8,636 China 230 342 251 141 Hong Kong 798 1,093 1,047 1,263 Israel 514 785 286 756 Japan 3,397 3,753 3,530 3,529 Philippines 241 568 345 368 Saudi Arabia 386 361 423 329 Singapore 185 298 321 314 South Korea 273 269 338 325 Taiwan 208 253 281 402 U Arab Em 193 236 242 281 Oceania 680 751 691 935 Australia 476 486 563 770 New Zealand 105 145 31 120 Africa 945 792 544 673 Egypt 18 22 22 12 Ghana 1 53 33 78 Ivory Coast 90 21 35 15 Nigeria 185 341 132 255 South Africa 286 106 99 112 World 2/ 163,643 187,784 187,670 162,829 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding. ACTUAL AND PROJECTED COTTON ACREAGE ------------------------------------------------------------------- Projected Projected State/ Actual March June Region 1998 1999 1/ 1999 2/ 1999/1998 ------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 acres Percent Upland: Alabama 495 550 570 115 Florida 89 100 89 100 Georgia 1,370 1,500 1,500 109 N. Carolina 710 770 820 115 S. Carolina 290 285 320 110 Virginia 92 98 98 107 Southeast 3,046 3,303 3,397 112 Arkansas 920 960 940 102 Louisiana 535 570 570 107 Mississippi 950 1,100 1,200 126 Missouri 370 370 450 122 Tennessee 450 500 600 133 Delta 3,225 3,500 3,760 117 Kansas 17 29 29 171 Oklahoma 160 225 225 141 Texas 5,650 5,700 5,900 104 Southwest 5,827 5,954 6,154 106 Arizona 250 250 240 96 California 650 570 620 95 New Mexico 66 62 70 106 West 966 882 930 96 Total Upland 13,064 13,639 14,241 109 Pima: Arizona 16 13 11 69 California 200 250 260 130 New Mexico 7 8 7 100 Texas 105 34 40 38 Total Pima 328 305 318 97 Total All 13,393 13,944 14,559 109 ------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Planting intentions as indicated by reports from farmers. 2/ Total acres planted or intended to be planted. END_OF_FILE