COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK September 13, 1999 September 1999, CWS-0899 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK is issued 10 times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036. Electronic release only; no published copies are available. COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK is supplemented by an annual COTTON AND WOOL YEARBOOK. The yearbook summary for 1999 will be released on November 22, 1999. Yearbooks are available in print from the USDA Order Desk. For the 1999 issue, call 1-800-999-6779 (703-605-6220) and ask for stock #ERS-CWS-1999, $21. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS U.S. 1999 Cotton Production Prospects Decline U.S. Total Demand and Stocks To Rise This Season Revised 1998/99 Mill Use and Stocks 1999/2000 Foreign Production Reduced, Consumption Raised in August World Consumption Depressed by China and the United States U.S. Textile Trade Expands in June U.S. 1999 Cotton Production Prospects Decline According to the September Crop Production report, the 1999 U.S. cotton crop is forecast at 17.5 million bales, 4 percent below the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) August report of 18.3 million. The September forecast is also below industry expectations that averaged 18.1 million bales. Upland production is forecast at 16.8 million bales, while the extra-long staple (ELS) crop is projected at 689,000 bales, near the 1989 record. During the previous 20 years, the September forecast has been below final production 11 times and above 9 times. Past differences between the September forecast and the final production estimate indicate that chances are two out of three for the 1999 U.S. cotton crop to range between 16.5 and 18.6 million bales. Compared with last month, expected production declined in three of the four regions of the Cottonbelt. The lower production was equally distributed over the Southeast, Delta, and Southwest regions, each falling roughly 300,000 bales from August as dry, hot weather reduced earlier yield potential there. The Southwest is now projected to produce 5.2 million bales this season, with an average yield of 481 pounds per harvested acre. In the Delta, a crop of 5.1 million bales is expected. Yield per harvested acre there is estimated at 656 pounds. For the Southeast, production of nearly 4.4 million bales is forecast with an average yield reaching 618 pounds per acre. In the West, upland production is projected 9 percent above the August forecast at 2.1 million bales. An average yield for the region is estimated at 1,145 pounds per harvested acre, nearly 200 pounds above last season's weather-plagued crop. In addition to upland, ELS production in the West is expected to increase. California continues to take the lead in ELS production and is projected to account for 87 percent of the crop in 1999. Compared with last season, cotton production is expected to rise 26 percent nationally with each region contributing to the increase. Total planted area to cotton remains estimated at 14.6 million acres and abandonment is projected at a relatively normal 7 percent. As a result, cotton area to be harvested is forecast at 13.6 million acres, 27 percent above last season and the highest since 1995/96. Based on the harvested area, the national yield is estimated at 621 pounds per acre, 4 pounds below 1998/99. Despite recent declines, mainly in the Delta and Southeast, overall U.S. cotton crop conditions remain more favorable than a year ago. As of September 5, 42 percent of the cotton acreage was in "good" or "excellent" condition, compared with only 34 percent in 1998. In contrast, 27 percent is rated "poor" or "very poor" this season, compared with 32 percent in 1998. While crop conditions are better than last season, this year's crop development is slightly behind that of 1998 but ahead of the 5-year average. As of September 5, 46 percent of the cotton area had bolls opening compared with 49 percent in 1998 and an average of 40 percent. Although development is slightly behind, ginnings are reported above a year ago. As of September 1, 561,000 running bales had been ginned, compared with 523,000 bales at this time last year and only 358,700 bales in 1997. U.S. Total Demand and Stocks To Rise This Season Based on the September production forecast and carryin stocks estimated at 3.9 million bales, total U.S. cotton supplies for 1999/2000 are expected to rise 18 percent from last year to 21.5 million. Meanwhile, total use of U.S. cotton is also projected to increase, with a rebound in foreign cotton demand likely boosting U.S. exports. In 1999/2000, total U.S. cotton demand is forecast to reach 16.1 million bales, nearly 10 percent above last season but below the 5-year average of 18 million bales. These estimates reflect current policy and do not include any additional demand that may result from the refunding of the "Step 2" program or any other legislative proposals being discussed by Congress. For 1999/2000, U.S. cotton exports are forecast at 5.7 million bales, 1.4 million above the latest 1998/99 estimate. Despite a reduction in the U.S. crop this month, increases in September's forecast of foreign imports and consumption are expected to keep U.S. raw cotton exports unchanged from the August projection and 33 percent above 1998/99. Competition from foreign exporters will likely remain formidable this season, keeping U.S. exports some 2 million bales below the average of the robust 1994-1997 seasons. Based on the current projections of U.S. and world cotton trade, this season's U.S. share of global exports is estimated at about 23 percent, up from 18 percent in 1998/99. Despite more abundant supply expectations in 1999/2000, U.S. cotton mill use is projected to remain at the 1998/99 level. While a more competitive price situation exists with polyester staple fibers, mill demand for cotton--as well as other fibers--is expected to grow slowly this season. Tempering the U.S. mill demand further are cotton textile imports which continue to expand. The rise in textile trade is partially the result of preferential treatment under the North American Free Trade Agreement and the relocation to Mexico of numerous mills taking advantage of reduced labor costs. With these U.S. supply and demand projections, cotton ending stocks for 1999/2000 are projected to jump 1.5 million bales from the beginning level to 5.4 million. As a result, the implied stocks-to-use ratio for the season is currently 33.5 percent, well above 1998/99 and the highest since 1988/89. Revised 1998/99 Mill Use and Stocks Based on reports from the Census Bureau and adjusting to a marketing year basis, cotton mill use for 1998/99 was reduced slightly from last month's estimate to 10.4 million bales. The latest figure is nearly 1 million bales (8 percent) below 1997/98's 50-plus year high for U.S. mill consumption. A revised July mill use estimate will be issued by the Census Bureau later this month, and last season's mill use will be adjusted accordingly in October. A preliminary U.S. ending stock estimate was also released recently by the Census Bureau, indicating larger than expected cotton stocks on July 31, 1999. Based on necessary adjustments to the data, 1998/99 ending stocks are estimated at 3.9 million bales, up from 3.6 million estimated by USDA in its August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. Since the Census data are the "official" data, the difference between the USDA estimate and the Census figure will be recorded in the unaccounted category. As a result, ending stocks for 1998/99 were similar to those of the previous two seasons. However, lower demand last season has raised the U.S. stocks-to-use ratio to 26.5 percent, the highest since 1992/93. 1999/2000 Foreign Production Reduced, Consumption Raised in August Weather-reduced expected crops in India and Uzbekistan, and an improved outlook for cotton use in China and Russia, accounted for most of a 950,000-bale reduction this month in the foreign ending stocks forecast for 1999/2000. Foreign 1999/2000 production is forecast 850,000 bales lower than in August, largely because India's monsoon brought less than expected rainfall to Gujarat. Foreign 1999/2000 consumption is forecast 310,000 bales higher than in August as recent textile output data from China, Russia, and India suggest slightly better prospects for cotton consumption than earlier expected. Foreign 1999/2000 exports are unchanged from the August forecast, and foreign 1999/2000 imports are forecast 80,000 bales higher than July. Foreign 1999/2000 beginning stocks are estimated at 37.7 million bales, about 110,000 bales more than was estimated in August, and 780,000 bales higher than in 1998/99. Production is forecast at 68.8 million bales in 1999/2000, compared with 70.4 million in 1998/99. Foreign imports are expected to rise in 1999/2000, up 1.6 million bales to 25.8 million. Foreign exports are also expected to rise, up 500,000 bales, to 19.5 million. And foreign consumption is expected to rise, up 2.3 million bales, to 76.8 million. The end result is expected to be foreign ending stocks of 35.7 million bales, 2 million bales lower than in 1998/99. As a share of consumption, 1999/2000 foreign ending stocks are projected to fall to 47 percent compared with 51 percent in 1998/99. China is expected to account for the entire year-to-year decline foreseen for foreign ending stocks in 1999/2000. Foreign production (excluding China) is forecast to be slightly--100,000 bales--higher than during the year before. Foreign ending stocks (excluding China) are expected to fall only 80,000 bales from the year before. Excluding China, foreign consumption is expected to grow 3.3 percent from the year before, rebounding almost exactly to the 1996/97 level achieved before the onset of the Asian financial crisis. World Consumption Depressed by China and the United States World cotton consumption had reached a record in 1996/97, just before the beginning of the financial crisis in Asia. Pre-crisis world economic growth had rebounded to a 3.2-average during 1994-97 (calendar year data from Oxford Economic Forecasting), compared with a 1.8-average during 1991-93. The financial disruptions that began in Asia in 1997 reduced gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 1998, and significantly reduced expectations for GDP growth in 1999. However, as calendar 1999 draws to a close, economic growth in many countries has outperformed earlier pessimistic expectations, but global cotton consumption remains below pre-crisis levels even after gains expected in 1999/2000 are factored in. World consumption in 1999/2000 is forecast 1.9 million bales below its pre-crisis record. The largest decline from 1996/97 is forecast for China, down 1.2 million bales, and the second largest decline is forecast for the United States, down 730,000 bales. Excluding these two countries, consumption in 1999/2000 is forecast to reach 56.6 million bales, the same as in 1996/97. Southeast Asia's 1999/2000 consumption is forecast to rise from the year before and return to its pre-crisis 4.5 million bales. Taiwan, South Korea, Pakistan, and Bangladesh are all forecast to consume more cotton in 1999/2000 than in 1996/97, ranging from 220,000 bales more to 75,000 bales more. However, the largest consumption increase foreseen since 1996/97 is Mexico's 800,000 bales. On the other hand, lower consumption than during 1996/97 is foreseen in 1999/2000 for India (370,000 bales lower) and Brazil (300,000 bales). Other countries losing ground between 1996/97 and 1999/2000 include Nigeria, Italy, Japan, Russia, Turkey, Thailand, and Columbia--with declines ranging from 200,000 to 80,000 bales. Recent news reports indicate the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is revising upwards its estimate of 1999 world GDP growth, as have many private macroeconomic forecasters during the course of the year. While near the beginning of calendar 1999 most forecasts were near 2.0 percent, expectations are now much closer to 3.0 percent. As a result, the large decline in world cotton consumption during marketing year 1998/99 (4.1 percent) no longer appears to correspond to the typical relationship observed over the last 25 years between world cotton consumption growth and world GDP growth. Generally, a decline in world cotton consumption has been associated with world GDP growth undershooting 2.2 percent; there have been only two exceptions to this since 1973/74, marketing years 1976/77 and 1993/94. Possible explanations for these earlier exceptions would note that 1976/77 followed 2 years of violently oscillating consumption and that 1993/94 immediately followed what was probably the most sluggish period of world economic activity of the post-World War II era. Why marketing year 1998/99 consumption fell even though current GDP figures suggest it could have risen has a bearing on expectations for consumption gains in 1999/2000. If the reduction in yarn production during 1998/99 was larger than the decline in end-use demand for products derived from yarn, then a relatively strong rebound could be expected in 1999/2000 consumption. During recent weeks, Cotton Outlook's Yarn Index has been reported at much closer to year-ago levels than has been the case for prices of cotton, consistent with a greater cut-back in recent-past yarn production than in the production of products derived from yarn. On the other hand, if long-run consumption prospects in a large number of rapidly growing countries were reduced--even reduced slightly--in a short amount of time, then consumers of textiles and producers of yarn could experience a significant one-year adjustment. Consumers in Southeast Asia undoubtedly have changed their long-run domestic consumption expectations since 1996, and the export share of the region's mill use is undoubtedly higher, pressuring mills elsewhere. Consumers in China probably are less certain about their long-run consumption prospects, and China's textile exports have not been robust of late as well. Devaluations and increased uncertainty have also been the case for Brazilian and Russian consumers. There are no obvious candidates for markets where long-run economic adjustments have been positive, although U.S. short-term performance continues to surpass expectation, and generally positive news has been recently coming from Europe and Japan. World cotton consumption is expected to rise 2.7 percent in 1999/2000, a rate above its likely long-term growth potential but well below the rate experienced in some years when consumption rebounded from earlier declines. World GDP growth is expected to continue improving during calendar year 2000. The lagged effect of recent lower cotton prices should prove beneficial as well, supporting the prospects of this above-average growth forecast, and possibly eventually improving the long-run consumer outlook if stable economic growth is maintained. U.S. Textile Trade Expands in June U.S. textile imports during June 1999, at 1.1 billion (raw-fiber equivalent) pounds, rose 26 percent from May but was only 8 percent above June 1998. Higher imports in all categories contributed to the gains, with apparel recording nearly 68 percent of the total. In addition, all fibers showed an increase from May, with cotton and manmade textile imports accounting for over 90 percent of U.S. textile imports. Cotton imports, at 629 million pounds, were responsible for 57 percent of the June figure and were nearly 12 percent higher than June 1998. U.S. cotton textile imports from Asia accounted for 47 percent of the monthly imports, while shipments from other North American countries contributed another 42 percent. In contrast, U.S. textile exports rose 7 percent in June to 419 million pounds, but were 11 percent above the previous year. All end-use categories reported an increase, with the yarn, thread, and fabric category accounting for nearly half of the June exports. All fibers, except silk, reported higher total textile exports for the latest month, with manmade and cotton once again contributing the bulk of the shipments. Cotton textile exports, at 190 million pounds, were 5 percent better than May and 15 percent above June 1998 and accounted for 45 percent of all textile exports. U.S. cotton textile exports, for the most part, are sent to other North American countries, and during June, 90 percent of the shipments were recorded in this fashion. Overall for the first half of 1999, U.S. cotton textile imports are nearly 13 percent above the comparable 1998 period, while exports increased more than 10 percent. As a result, the cotton textile trade deficit for the 6-month period reached 2.1 billion pounds, or 14 percent higher than the deficit during the first half of 1998. * * * * * The next Cotton and Wool Outlook (CWS-0999) will be released on October 12, 1999. ***************************************************************** Information Contacts: Leslie Meyer (U.S. Cotton and Textiles) LMEYER@ECON.AG.GOV (202) 694-5307 Stephen MacDonald (Foreign Cotton) STEPHENM@ECON.AG.GOV (202) 694-5305 Robert Skinner (Textiles and Wool) RSKINNER@ECON.AG.GOV (202) 694-5313 ***************************************************************** U.S. COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1999/2000 ---------------------------- Item 1998/99 Jul Aug Sep ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Upland: Million acres Planted 13.064 14.241 14.283 14.283 Harvested 10.449 13.200 13.216 13.246 Pounds Yield/harvested acre 619 656 641 610 Million 480-lb. bales Beginning stocks 3.822 3.493 3.486 3.800 Production 13.476 18.027 17.636 16.846 Total supply 1/ 17.733 21.560 21.162 20.686 Mill use 10.253 10.450 10.350 10.250 Exports 4.012 5.220 5.220 5.220 Total use 14.265 15.670 15.570 15.470 Ending stocks 3.800 5.815 5.513 5.206 Percent Stocks-to-use ratio 26.6 37.1 35.4 33.7 Extra-long staple: 1,000 acres Planted 328 318 318 318 Harvested 235 315 316 316 Pounds Yield/harvested acre 904 1,025 1,013 1,045 1,000 480-lb. bales Beginning stocks 65 107 114 100 Production 442 673 668 689 Total supply 1/ 522 790 792 799 Mill use 147 150 150 150 Exports 288 480 480 480 Total use 435 630 630 630 Ending stocks 100 185 187 194 Percent Stocks-to-use ratio 23.0 29.4 29.7 30.8 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA estimates. 1/ Includes imports. WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1999/2000 ------------------------------ Item 1998/99 Jul Aug Sep ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Supply: Million 480-lb. bales Beginning stocks World 40.78 41.01 41.16 41.57 Foreign 36.89 37.41 37.56 37.67 Production World 84.29 89.24 87.93 86.31 Foreign 70.37 70.54 69.63 68.78 Imports World 24.69 25.71 25.78 25.86 Foreign 24.24 25.66 25.73 25.81 Use: Mill use World 84.90 86.88 86.97 87.18 Foreign 74.50 76.28 76.47 76.78 Exports World 23.34 25.34 25.27 25.24 Foreign 19.04 19.64 19.57 19.54 Ending stocks World 41.57 43.45 42.34 41.09 Foreign 37.67 37.45 36.64 35.69 Stocks-to-use ratio Percent World 49.0 50.0 48.7 47.1 Foreign 50.6 49.1 47.9 46.5 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA estimates. FIBER SUPPLY ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1999 1998 --------------------------- Item May Jun Jul Jul ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb. bales Ginnings 0 0 0 0 Imports since August 1 280.7 362.2 NA 13.4 Stocks, beginning 6,643 5,600 4,536 5,451 At mills 593 603 562 757 Public storage 5,629 4,975 4,082 4,239 CCC stocks 650 608 560 111 Manmade: Million pounds Production 830.3 883.0 872.5 869.1 Noncellulosic 804.6 860.2 847.6 838.5 Cellulosic 25.7 22.8 24.9 30.6 Total since January 1 4,184.5 5,067.5 5,940.0 5,826.0 1999 1998 ---------------------------- Apr May Jun Jun ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Million pounds Raw fiber imports 132.6 149.5 130.9 130.2 Noncellulosic 126.7 140.6 125.0 123.7 Cellulosic 5.6 8.9 5.9 6.5 Total since January 1 503.9 653.4 784.3 840.2 Wool and Mohair: 1,000 pounds Raw wool imports, clean 4,624 3,478 3,021 5,493 48's-and-finer 1,908 1,444 1,129 2,977 Not-finer-than-46's 2,716 2,034 1,891 2,516 Total since January 1 18,210 21,608 27,649 30,633 Wool top imports 208 92 131 225 Total since January 1 506 598 729 1,143 Mohair imports, clean 0 0 16 0 Total since January 1 0 0 16 2 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NA = Not available. COTTON SYSTEM FIBER CONSUMPTION ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1999 1998 --------------------------- Item May Jun Jul Jul ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb. bales All consumed by mills 1/ 864 885 784 915 Total since August 1 1/ 8,731 9,616 10,400 11,349 SA annual rate 2/ 10,287 10,345 10,077 11,369 SA daily rate 2/ 39.6 39.8 38.8 43.6 Daily rate 41.1 40.2 35.6 39.8 Upland consumed by mills 1/ 850 872 774 905 Total since August 1 1/ 8,607 9,479 10,253 11,234 SA daily rate 2/ 38.9 39.2 38.3 43.1 Daily rate 40.5 39.7 35.2 39.4 Spindles in place 5,160 5,180 5,140 5,416 Active spindles 4,660 4,715 4,678 5,059 100 percent cotton 2,530 2,523 2,501 2,585 100 percent manmade 750 757 754 772 Blends 1,380 1,435 1,423 1,702 Percent Cotton's share of fibers 78.5 78.6 78.3 78.5 Manmade: 1,000 pounds Total consumed by mills 1/ 113,797 115,575 104,401 120,466 Total since August 1 1/ 1,085,152 1,200,727 1,305,129 1,489,039 Daily rate 5,419 5,253 4,746 5,238 Noncellulosic staple 5,094 4,940 4,480 4,783 Cellulosic staple 325 313 266 455 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Adjusted to calendar month. 2/ SA = seasonally adjusted. FIBER EXPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1999 1998 -------------------------- Item Apr May Jun Jun ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb. bales Upland exports 137 231 235 589 Total since August 1 3,282 3,513 3,747 6,472 Sales for next season 109 187 548 275 Total since August 1 537 721 1,269 1,474 ELS exports 32.1 25.2 26.1 21.2 Total since August 1 216.2 241.4 267.6 420.5 Sales for next season 22.3 5.7 14.7 8.2 Total since August 1 72.6 78.3 92.9 131.4 Manmade: Million pounds Raw fiber exports 79.5 87.6 83.2 87.0 Noncellulosic 77.2 84.8 79.9 83.4 Cellulosic 2.3 2.8 3.3 3.6 Total since January 1 310.3 397.9 481.1 690.8 Wool and Mohair: 1,000 pounds Raw wool exports, clean 496.7 218.4 360.8 122.0 Total since January 1 775.8 994.2 1,355.0 983.2 Wool top exports 792.9 513.2 474.1 789.9 Total since January 1 1,937.2 2,450.4 2,924.5 3,685.5 Mohair exports, clean 492.4 381.0 299.5 77.3 Total since January 1 1,225.8 1,606.8 1,906.3 658.6 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FIBER PRICES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1999 1998 --------------------------- Item Jun Jul Aug Aug ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cents per pound Domestic cotton prices: Adjusted World Price 43.38 39.07 36.92 54.10 Oct'99 futures 56.18 50.76 51.74 71.98 Dec'99 futures 56.24 51.46 52.81 71.33 Upland spot 41-34 53.74 49.23 49.72 71.87 Pima spot 03-46 82.50 82.50 82.50 103.76 Avg. price received by: Upland producers 55.50 54.30 53.90 66.20 Mill delivered: Cotton Actual 60.87 56.24 57.14 79.80 Raw fiber equivalent 67.63 62.49 63.49 88.67 Rayon staple Actual 98.00 95.00 95.00 110.00 Raw fiber equivalent 102.08 98.96 98.96 114.58 Polyester staple Actual 51.00 52.00 52.00 58.00 Raw fiber equivalent 53.13 54.17 54.17 60.42 Price ratios Percent Cotton/rayon 66.3 63.1 64.2 77.4 Cotton/polyester 127.3 115.4 117.2 146.8 Northern Europe cotton quotes: Cents per pound A Index 58.68 54.56 50.98 68.13 Memphis Territory NQ NQ 58.63 76.94 California/Arizona 64.25 59.05 61.50 84.56 B Index NQ NQ NQ NQ Orleans/Texas NQ NQ 54.56 74.75 Wool prices (clean): Dollars per pound U.S. 56's 0.65 0.62 0.57 0.95 Australian 56's 1/ 1.33 1.32 1.30 1.32 U.S. 60's 0.92 0.89 0.84 1.25 Australian 60's 1/ 1.38 1.38 1.35 1.43 U.S. 64's 1.22 1.16 1.10 1.50 Australian 64's 1/ 1.49 1.52 1.48 1.44 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- NQ = No quotes. 1/ In bond, Charleston, SC. TEXTILE TRADE ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1999 1998 ---------------------------- Item Apr May Jun Jun ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Imports: 1,000 pounds 1/ Yarn, thread, and fabric 229,100 223,530 247,009 234,991 Cotton 97,485 93,422 107,427 106,444 Linen 19,677 18,267 19,837 15,278 Wool 3,853 4,395 4,697 4,457 Silk 734 742 780 723 Manmade 107,351 107,404 114,268 108,089 Apparel 530,524 550,663 743,210 687,209 Cotton 337,526 350,772 464,778 407,807 Linen 12,038 11,292 16,858 16,323 Wool 12,404 13,030 21,058 26,117 Silk 10,337 8,928 10,006 10,205 Manmade 158,209 166,641 230,510 226,757 House furnishings 57,604 51,105 63,047 54,515 Cotton 43,113 37,531 46,645 41,468 Linen 197 239 472 170 Wool 102 67 124 197 Silk 128 43 31 27 Manmade 14,064 13,225 15,775 12,653 Floor covering 33,900 34,591 35,544 28,023 Cotton 5,335 3,939 5,011 3,588 Linen 4,752 3,814 4,684 3,510 Wool 8,667 11,284 10,384 8,936 Silk 432 604 698 543 Manmade 14,714 14,950 14,767 11,446 Total imports 2/ 858,369 867,545 1,097,213 1,013,218 Cotton 487,776 489,637 628,656 563,536 Linen 36,698 33,656 41,909 35,347 Wool 25,156 28,977 36,489 39,918 Silk 11,631 10,317 11,514 11,498 Manmade 297,108 304,959 378,644 362,919 Exports: 1,000 pounds 1/ Yarn, thread, and fabric 188,123 189,105 200,466 171,276 Cotton 72,490 71,872 77,507 60,932 Linen 5,748 5,299 5,453 4,623 Wool 5,950 5,714 6,359 4,326 Silk 2,310 2,319 2,287 1,780 Manmade 101,625 103,901 108,860 99,615 Apparel 173,172 165,307 173,584 164,314 Cotton 108,985 102,545 105,655 97,323 Linen 2,069 1,911 2,036 1,625 Wool 6,418 6,223 6,581 8,187 Silk 3,647 3,924 3,906 3,020 Manmade 52,053 50,704 55,406 54,159 House furnishings 5,607 5,346 6,359 6,629 Cotton 3,386 3,166 3,806 3,851 Linen 166 148 201 264 Wool 54 59 58 136 Silk 109 117 74 154 Manmade 1,892 1,856 2,220 2,224 Floor covering 35,306 33,692 38,597 36,739 Cotton 2,733 2,451 2,750 3,349 Linen 1,608 1,456 1,517 1,855 Wool 3,262 3,564 2,927 2,966 Silk 84 75 60 119 Manmade 27,619 26,146 31,343 28,450 Total exports 2/ 402,462 393,675 419,264 379,251 Cotton 187,670 180,087 189,784 165,537 Linen 9,598 8,819 9,216 8,378 Wool 15,696 15,575 15,941 15,632 Silk 6,150 6,434 6,327 5,072 Manmade 183,347 182,760 197,996 184,632 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Includes headgear. U.S. COTTON TEXTILE IMPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1999 1998 ----------------------------- Item Apr May Jun Jun ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 pounds 1/ North America 216,967 230,366 263,606 219,226 Canada 21,313 21,541 21,380 17,234 Costa Rica 8,356 8,790 11,281 10,708 Dominican Republic 21,648 22,836 24,081 22,193 El Salvador 17,838 17,790 19,462 16,501 Guatemala 10,014 9,409 12,891 10,269 Haiti 3,645 3,821 4,247 3,025 Honduras 27,449 34,804 38,883 30,530 Jamaica 3,561 4,484 5,113 6,082 Mexico 100,336 103,602 121,003 98,344 Nicaragua 3,259 2,938 4,847 3,925 South America 7,704 8,030 10,490 7,298 Argentina 16 3 7 42 Brazil 1,856 1,736 2,323 1,808 Chile 17 23 30 11 Colombia 2,643 3,386 4,347 2,529 Peru 2,660 2,487 3,305 2,464 Europe 30,222 29,693 38,951 35,912 Estonia 627 689 690 1,021 France 535 508 559 485 Germany 799 815 917 769 Italy 2,919 3,125 3,670 3,419 Portugal 3,714 3,987 4,751 5,162 Russia 994 1,051 1,260 1,395 Spain 1,254 1,177 1,367 1,727 Turkey 14,438 13,666 19,960 16,280 United Kingdom 1,091 812 1,171 1,158 Asia 219,342 207,504 297,848 283,800 Bahrain 778 702 1,006 1,272 Bangladesh 13,768 12,390 22,306 20,163 China 28,329 28,921 44,579 39,670 Hong Kong 21,899 26,992 36,964 36,726 India 30,534 24,106 31,619 34,730 Indonesia 11,213 11,707 16,414 17,382 Israel 3,365 2,932 3,504 2,960 Japan 1,188 1,275 1,687 1,390 Macao 4,059 4,627 6,964 6,232 Malaysia 5,217 5,236 7,416 5,569 Nepal 1,863 1,320 1,706 1,463 Oman 1,569 1,502 1,949 2,180 Pakistan 32,059 27,189 34,389 36,664 Philippines 8,579 9,010 15,353 13,135 Qatar 964 1,092 1,551 869 Singapore 2,031 2,137 2,882 2,488 South Korea 8,542 8,377 11,596 10,578 Sri Lanka 7,941 5,482 8,481 9,561 Taiwan 10,467 12,169 16,537 14,320 Thailand 11,385 9,173 14,748 13,896 U Arab Em 2,496 2,248 2,798 2,660 Oceania 1,377 1,682 2,047 2,112 Australia 674 760 1,032 1,146 Fiji 532 663 624 763 Africa 12,164 12,363 15,713 15,188 Egypt 4,864 6,211 5,999 6,510 Lesotho 1,462 1,457 2,459 1,405 Mauritius 1,766 1,669 2,079 2,560 Morocco 1,183 797 1,184 2,054 South Africa 991 840 1,892 959 Tunisia 41 85 92 23 World 2/ 487,776 489,637 628,656 563,536 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding. U.S. COTTON TEXTILE EXPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1999 1998 ----------------------------- Country Apr May Jun Jun ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 pounds 1/ North America 67,401 161,740 170,684 141,579 Canada 28,855 28,682 28,608 28,709 Costa Rica 6,565 8,140 4,999 6,205 Dominican Republic 17,232 17,473 16,357 17,326 El Salvador 5,992 6,034 6,054 6,825 Guatemala 3,699 4,267 3,135 3,625 Haiti 2,353 1,930 2,751 1,194 Honduras 25,874 25,274 26,082 22,350 Jamaica 3,265 2,156 3,121 5,053 Mexico 71,929 65,884 77,990 48,879 South America 3,731 3,538 3,828 5,270 Argentina 203 111 228 358 Brazil 263 253 319 741 Chile 572 484 468 977 Colombia 1,458 1,938 1,266 1,570 Peru 49 42 92 155 Venezuela 864 383 1,206 967 Europe 7,508 6,615 7,332 10,197 Belgium 2,152 1,601 1,967 3,377 France 426 293 291 516 Germany 645 959 692 757 Ireland 105 155 104 973 Italy 331 269 232 394 Netherlands 368 294 501 669 United Kingdom 2,269 1,886 1,804 2,249 Asia 7,797 6,941 6,669 6,909 China 251 322 298 160 Hong Kong 1,047 864 811 791 Israel 286 420 439 788 Japan 3,530 3,059 2,803 2,615 Philippines 345 231 229 359 Saudi Arabia 423 260 379 467 Singapore 321 259 313 239 South Korea 338 265 266 86 Taiwan 281 279 351 163 U Arab Em 242 227 135 222 Oceania 691 772 599 856 Australia 563 539 411 731 New Zealand 31 82 107 84 Africa 544 481 673 727 Egypt 22 46 3 34 Ghana 33 35 16 18 Ivory Coast 35 13 45 12 Nigeria 132 129 220 140 South Africa 99 46 100 94 World 2/ 187,670 180,087 189,784 165,537 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding. ACREAGE, YIELD, AND PRODUCTION ESTIMATES FOR 1999 ------------------------------------------------------------------- State/ Region Harvested Yield Production ------------------------------------------------------------------- Lbs./ 1,000 acres harvested acre 1,000 bales Upland: Alabama 560 583 680 Florida 88 524 96 Georgia 1,450 596 1,800 N. Carolina 870 687 1,245 S. Carolina 315 549 360 Virginia 109 819 186 Southeast 3,392 618 4,367 Arkansas 930 697 1,350 Louisiana 595 686 850 Mississippi 1,180 716 1,760 Missouri 445 561 520 Tennessee 595 516 640 Delta 3,745 656 5,120 Kansas 28 411 24 Oklahoma 190 531 210 Texas 5,000 480 5,000 Southwest 5,218 481 5,234 Arizona 239 1,155 575 California 585 1,190 1,450 New Mexico 67 716 100 West 891 1,145 2,125 Total Upland 13,246 610 16,846 Pima: Arizona 11 814 19 California 259 1,112 600 New Mexico 7 651 10 Texas 39 738 60 Total Pima 316 1,045 689 Total All 13,562 621 17,535 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA's September Crop Production report. END_OF_FILE