COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK October 12, 1999 October 1999, CWS-0999 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK is issued 10 times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no published copies are available. COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK is supplemented by an annual COTTON AND WOOL YEARBOOK. The yearbook summary for 1999 will be released on November 22, 1999. Yearbooks are available in print from ERS-NASS Order Desk. For the 1999 issue, call 1-800-999-6779 (703-605-6220) and ask for stock #ERS-CWS-1999, $21. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS o U.S. 1999 Cotton Crop Continues To Decline o Demand and Stocks To Rise This Season o U.S. Demand To Improve but Mixed o Foreign 1999/2000 Consumption Higher o China's 1999/2000 Production Forecast at 19 Million Bales o Textile Trade Deficit Widens U.S. 1999 Cotton Crop Continues To Decline According to the United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA) October survey of the 1999 cotton crop, U.S. production is forecast at 16.4 million bales, well below last month's 17.5-million-bale projection but still 18 percent higher than 1998/99. Upland production is forecast at 15.7 million bales, while the extra-long staple (ELS) crop is projected at a record 704,000 bales. During the previous 20 years, the October forecast has been below final production 13 times and above 7 times. And, past differences between the October forecast and the final production estimate indicate that chances are two out of three for the 1999 U.S. cotton crop to range between 15.8 and 17.1 million bales. Compared with last season, upland production is projected to rise in three of the four regions of the Cottonbelt, while the Southeast crop is expected to be similar. In the Southeast--where Hurricane Floyd ravaged the Carolinas last month and dry conditions existed for most of the remaining States this season--production is forecast at 3.7 million bales. North Carolina, which took the brunt of the hurricane, lost an estimated 400,000 bales from last month's forecast. For the region, the average yield is now estimated at 535 pounds per harvested acre, the lowest since 1990. In the Southwest, upland output is expected to increase over 1.25 million bales this season to 5 million. With Texas' production accounting for 4.8 million of the total, the average upland yield there of 461 pounds per harvested acre is equal to the region's yield and similar to the Southwest 5-year average. For the Delta region, upland production is projected to reach 4.9 million bales, or 17 percent above 1998. While harvested area is up 500,000 acres in the Delta this season, a regional yield of only 639 pounds per harvested acre--similar to that of 1998--is keeping production there well below the 5-year average of 5.8 million bales. In the West, upland output remains unchanged this month at 2.1 million bales. Although 16 percent above last season's weather-damaged crop, this season's production remains well below the 5-year average of 3 million bales. In addition to upland, ELS production in the West is expected to rise more than 250,000 bales this season. California continues to take the lead in ELS production and is projected to account for 88 percent of the ELS crop in 1999. Total planted area to cotton is estimated at 14.6 million acres and abandonment is projected at a relatively normal 8 percent. As a result, cotton area to be harvested is forecast at 13.4 million acres, 25 percent above last season and the highest since 1995. Based on the harvested area, the national yield is estimated at only 588 pounds per acre, 37 pounds below 1998 and the lowest since 1995. Despite continued declines in the cotton crop conditions in the Delta and Southeast, overall U.S. conditions remain more favorable than a year ago. As of October 3, 39 percent of the cotton acreage was in "good" or "excellent" condition, compared with only 30 percent in 1998. In contrast, 30 percent is rated "poor" or "very poor" this season, compared with 36 percent in 1998. Like crop conditions, this year's crop development is slightly ahead of 1998. As of October 3, 87 percent of the cotton area had bolls opening, one percentage point higher than in 1998. In contrast, the percentage of area harvested is running behind, with 28 percent reported harvested, compared with 32 percent last season. While the Southwest and the Carolinas have fallen behind, several States--Missouri, Arkansas, and Tennessee--have jumped well ahead of their 1998 progress and their 5-year average. Meanwhile, cotton ginnings are also reported higher than a year ago. As of October 1, 2.7 million running bales had been ginned, compared with about 2.1 million at this time last year. Demand and Stocks To Rise This Season Based on the October production forecast and carryin stocks estimated at 3.9 million bales, total U.S. cotton supplies for 1999/2000 are projected to rise 12 percent to 20.4 million. Meanwhile, total use of U.S. cotton is also projected to increase, but not as fast as production due to prevalent foreign competition in the raw fiber and textile sectors. In 1999/2000, total U.S. cotton demand is forecast to reach 15.7 million bales, 6 percent above last season but below the 5-year average of 18 million bales. These estimates reflect current policy and current levels of mill use and export activity; they do not include any additional future demand that may result from the refunding of the "Step 2" program or any other legislative proposals being discussed by Congress. With these U.S. supply and demand projections, cotton ending stocks for 1999/2000 are projected to expand 750,000 bales from the beginning level to 4.7 million. As a result, the implied stocks-to-use ratio for the season is currently near 30 percent, similar to 1992/93. U.S. Demand To Improve but Mixed Despite the abundant supply expectations in 1999/2000, U.S. cotton mill use is projected to decline slightly. And while exports are projected to rebound this season, they are expected to remain well below the levels experienced as recently as 1997/98. For 1999/2000, U.S. cotton exports are forecast at 5.5 million bales, 1.2 million above the 1998/99 estimate. The larger U.S. supplies and a boost in foreign imports--the result of an expected rebound in world consumption--are providing the modest gain in U.S. raw cotton exports. Competition from foreign exporters was intense in 1998/99 and will likely remain formidable this season. In addition, China is projected to remain a net exporter for a second consecutive year in 1999/2000, unlike the mid-1990's when China imported large quantities of cotton from the United States. As a result, U.S. exports are expected to remain well below the robust 1994-1997 seasons. Based on the current projections of U.S. and world trade, the U.S. share of global exports is estimated at about 22 percent, up from 18.5 percent in 1998/99. For 1999/2000, U.S. mill use is currently estimated at 10.2 million bales, 2 percent below the final 1998/99 estimate of 10.4 million. Although abundant cotton supply projections have produced a more competitive price situation with polyester staple fibers, demand for all fibers is expected to grow slowly this year. In addition, the level of cotton textile imports is expected to play a crucial role in the amount of raw cotton consumed by U.S. mills. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) has increased cotton textile trade over the past 5 years and the strength of the dollar has also encouraged extensive foreign shipments to the United States. During the first half of 1999, for example, cotton textile imports reached 3.1 billion (raw-fiber equivalent) pounds, nearly 13 percent above the comparable period in 1998. While an annual gain in cotton textile imports is expected this season, the recent weakening of the U.S. dollar against major textile and apparel markets will help moderate the 1999 import growth. Despite expanding cotton textile exports, U.S. cotton mill use during calendar 1999 will likely fall below 5.2 billion pounds, the lowest since 1995. Foreign 1999/2000 Consumption Higher Outside of the United States, foreign 1999/2000 cotton use is forecast 2.4 million bales above its year-earlier level, a 3-percent increase, to 76.9 million bales. Foreign 1999/2000 cotton production is forecast 930,000 bales below its year-earlier level, a 1-percent decline, to 69.6 million bales. As consumption rises, international trade in cotton is also expected to rise, and foreign cotton exports in 1999/2000 are forecast 620,000 bales above their year-earlier total, a 3- percent increase to 19.7 million bales. Lower foreign ending stocks are foreseen compared with a year earlier--down 1.6 million bales to 36.2 million. But, once China's 2.2 million bales ending stock decline is deducted, then higher ending stocks are forecast for the remaining foreign countries, up 550,000 bales to 21 million. Compared with September's levels, October's foreign 1999/2000 production forecast is 830,000 bales higher; the consumption forecast is 80,000 bales higher; exports 170,000 bales higher; and ending stocks 550,000 bales higher. Since China's 1999/2000 ending stocks are forecast 250,000 bales lower in October than in September, removing China from the foreign total gives a month-to-month increase for the remaining foreign countries of 800,000 bales. The increase is attributable to the larger foreign crops and increased export competition from China. October's 1999/2000 production forecast is higher due to larger expected crops in Pakistan, India, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Zimbabwe, Spain, and South Africa. Pakistan's increase is the largest, 300,000 bales, coming as higher gin arrivals, steady press reports, and a flurry of policy initiatives from the Pakistani Government all lend credence to earlier government forecasts of an improved crop. India's increase, 200,000 bales, largely reflects reports of above-average yields in northern India. Gujarat recently received some long overdue rains, and some forecasts are even higher than USDA's as a result; however, these rains have come just after the normal window for planting in Gujarat, limiting their impact. China's 1999/2000 Production Forecast at 19 Million Bales China's 1999/2000 production forecast is unchanged from the month before, remaining at 19 million bales, despite a 200,000-hectare decline in estimated area. Area is estimated lower following the release by China's State Statistical Bureau (SSB) of an estimate for 1999/2000 total cotton area that was below the estimates released earlier in the year by the Ministry of Agriculture. Since other press reports indicate that Xinjiang's 1999/2000 production is quite similar to the previous year's level, it is reasonable to assume that the province's hectarage is also quite similar. This means that 1999/2000's entire 550,000 hectare year-to-year decline in China's cotton area occurred outside of Xinjiang. This would be a 16-percent reduction, and would likely come primarily from areas with marginal yields, particularly in light of government efforts to reduce "scattered plots." This, and the absence during 1999/2000 of any weather event remotely akin to 1998/99's Yangtze floods, suggests that average yields outside of Xinjiang could be a few percent higher in 1999/2000. Xinjiang's yields are almost 50 percent higher than those in the rest of China. Therefore, even with an average yield in Xinjiang, the increased proportion of production occurring in China's most productive region during 1999/2000 suggests a national average yield above its year-ago level. This, combined with the likelihood of slightly above-average yields outside of Xinjiang, suggests China's national yield in 1999/2000 could be 4.7 percent higher than the year before. By comparison, China's yields have risen an average of 6.3 percent annually since 1992/93. The likelihood of a relatively large crop in China during 1999/2000 in part underpins the outlook for their higher exports. A trend of rising monthly exports, aggressive pricing on world markets, and higher reported export forecasts from China resulted in a 200,000-bale increase in the forecast for China's 1999/2000 exports compared with September's forecast. At 1.2 million bales, China's exports are now forecast about 500,000 bales above their 1998/99 level. China's net exports are forecast to reach 950,000 bales in 1999/2000, their highest since 1987/88. Textile Trade Deficit Widens July textile imports of all fibers rose 46 million pounds from a month earlier to a record 1.14 billion pounds. Imports increased for the third consecutive month and were 4 percent above June and a year earlier. Larger shipments of all fibers except linen occurred in July, compared with a month ago. Increases in apparel and home furnishings more than offset slight declines in floor covering and yarn, thread, and fabric products. Cotton textile imports, at 637 million pounds, were up 1 percent from June and 4 percent above July 1998. Imports from Asia totaled 308 million pounds and accounted for 48 percent of total shipments. Larger shipments from major suppliers such as Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan were responsible for most of the increase. Textile exports, at 357 million pounds, declined to the lowest level in 5 months. July exports were 15 percent below June and 1 percent below a year earlier. Exports of all major fibers and end-use categories were below a month ago. Cotton textile exports, at 164 million pounds, were 14 percent lower than June shipments. Lower shipments to North American countries accounted for 85 percent of the monthly drop. During the first 7 months of 1999, the textile trade deficit was the largest in the past few years. The overall deficit rose to 4.0 billion pounds at the end of July, compared with 3.5 billion in 1998, and 2.9 billion in 1997. Historically, cotton textiles have accounted for the largest share of the trade deficit. Through July cotton textile imports exceeded exports by 2.6 billion pounds, representing 64 percent of the total deficit. The cotton trade deficit during the first 7 months of 1998 totaled 2.3 billion pounds. With larger textile imports this year, the annual trade deficit will likely exceed the 1998 record of 6.4 billion pounds. * * * * * The Cotton and Wool Yearbook summary (CWS-1099) will be released on November 22, 1999. The next Cotton and Wool Outlook (CWS-1199) will be released on December 13, 1999. ***************************************************************** Information Contacts: Leslie Meyer (U.S. Cotton and Textiles) LMEYER@ECON.AG.GOV (202) 694-5307 Stephen MacDonald (Foreign Cotton) STEPHENM@ECON.AG.GOV (202) 694-5305 Robert Skinner (Textiles and Wool) RSKINNER@ECON.AG.GOV (202) 694-5313 ***************************************************************** U.S. COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1999/2000 ---------------------------- Item 1998/99 Aug Sep Oct ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Upland: Million acres Planted 13.064 14.283 14.283 14.283 Harvested 10.449 13.216 13.246 13.096 Pounds Yield/harvested acre 619 641 610 576 Million 480-lb. bales Beginning stocks 3.822 3.486 3.800 3.836 Production 13.476 17.636 16.846 15.726 Total supply 1/ 17.729 21.162 20.686 19.627 Mill use 10.254 10.350 10.250 10.050 Exports 4.056 5.220 5.220 5.020 Total use 14.310 15.570 15.470 15.070 Ending stocks 3.836 5.513 5.206 4.503 Percent Stocks-to-use ratio 26.8 35.4 33.7 29.9 Extra-long staple: 1,000 acres Planted 328 318 318 318 Harvested 235 316 316 309 Pounds Yield/harvested acre 904 1,013 1,045 1,093 1,000 480-lb. bales Beginning stocks 65 114 100 103 Production 442 668 689 704 Total supply 1/ 519 792 799 817 Mill use 147 150 150 150 Exports 288 480 480 480 Total use 435 630 630 630 Ending stocks 103 187 194 197 Percent Stocks-to-use ratio 23.7 29.7 30.8 31.3 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA estimates. 1/ Includes imports. WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1999/2000 ------------------------------ Item 1998/99 Aug Sep Oct ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Supply: Million 480-lb. bales Beginning stocks World 40.79 41.16 41.57 41.78 Foreign 36.90 37.56 37.67 37.84 Production World 84.46 87.93 86.31 86.05 Foreign 70.54 69.63 68.78 69.61 Imports World 24.71 25.78 25.86 25.67 Foreign 24.27 25.73 25.81 25.59 Use: Mill use World 84.88 86.97 87.18 87.06 Foreign 74.48 76.47 76.78 76.86 Exports World 23.44 25.27 25.24 25.21 Foreign 19.09 19.57 19.54 19.71 Ending stocks World 41.78 42.34 41.09 40.94 Foreign 37.84 36.64 35.69 36.24 Stocks-to-use ratio Percent World 49.2 48.7 47.1 47.0 Foreign 50.8 47.9 46.5 47.2 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA estimates. FIBER SUPPLY ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1999 1998 --------------------------- Item Jun Jul Aug Aug ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb. bales Ginnings 0 0 577 538 Imports since August 1 362.2 442.7 NA 0 Stocks, beginning 5,601 4,537 3,939 3,887 At mills 603 562 589 760 Public storage 4,975 4,082 3,330 3,270 CCC stocks 608 560 436 64 Manmade: Million pounds Production 882.9 867.6 858.5 843.6 Noncellulosic 860.1 842.7 836.9 813.3 Cellulosic 22.8 24.9 21.6 30.3 Total since January 1 5,067.4 5,935.0 6,793.5 7,009.7 1999 1998 ---------------------------- May Jun Jul Jul ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Million pounds Raw fiber imports 149.5 130.9 129.9 126.6 Noncellulosic 140.6 125.0 124.7 119.7 Cellulosic 8.9 5.9 5.2 6.9 Total since January 1 653.4 784.3 914.2 806.2 Wool and Mohair: 1,000 pounds Raw wool imports, clean 3,478 3,021 3,677 5,728 48's-and-finer 1,444 1,129 2,063 2,947 Not-finer-than-46's 2,034 1,891 1,614 2,781 Total since January 1 21,608 27,649 35,003 46,361 Wool top imports 92 131 196 287 Total since January 1 598 729 925 1,143 Mohair imports, clean 0 16 0 15 Total since January 1 0 16 16 29 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NA = Not available. COTTON SYSTEM FIBER CONSUMPTION ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1999 1998 --------------------------- Item Jun Jul Aug Aug ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb. bales All consumed by mills 1/ 885 785 872 929 Total since August 1 1/ 9,616 10,401 872 929 SA annual rate 2/ 10,328 10,043 9,915 10,747 SA daily rate 2/ 39.7 38.6 38.0 41.3 Daily rate 40.2 35.7 39.6 44.2 Upland consumed by mills 1/ 872 775 858 918 Total since August 1 1/ 10,479 10,254 858 918 SA daily rate 2/ 39.1 38.2 37.3 40.8 Daily rate 39.6 35.2 39.0 43.7 Spindles in place 5,180 5,094 5,016 5,483 Active spindles 4,715 4,660 4,670 5,134 100 percent cotton 2,523 2,472 2,514 2,651 100 percent manmade 757 757 748 781 Blends 1,435 1,431 1,408 1,702 Percent Cotton's share of fibers 78.6 78.4 78.5 78.7 Manmade: 1,000 pounds Total consumed by mills 1/ 115,575 104,075 114,577 120,895 Total since August 1 1/ 1,200,727 1,304,803 114,577 120,895 Daily rate 5,253 4,731 5,208 5,757 Noncellulosic staple 4,940 4,464 4,910 5,287 Cellulosic staple 313 267 298 470 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Adjusted to calendar month. 2/ SA = seasonally adjusted. FIBER EXPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1999 1998 -------------------------- Item May Jun Jul Jul ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb. bales Upland exports 231 235 309 588 Total since August 1 3,513 3,747 4,056 7,060 Sales for next season 187 548 368 96 Total since August 1 721 1,269 1,637 1,570 ELS exports 25.2 26.1 20.1 19.1 Total since August 1 241.4 267.6 287.7 439.6 Sales for next season 5.7 14.7 43.6 9.7 Total since August 1 78.3 92.9 136.4 141.0 Manmade: Million pounds Raw fiber exports 87.6 83.2 72.0 77.7 Noncellulosic 84.8 79.9 69.6 74.8 Cellulosic 2.8 3.3 2.4 2.9 Total since January 1 397.9 481.1 553.1 765.8 Wool and Mohair: 1,000 pounds Raw wool exports, clean 218.4 360.8 286.8 235.1 Total since January 1 994.2 1,355.0 1,641.8 1,218.4 Wool top exports 513.2 474.1 514.5 518.4 Total since January 1 2,450.4 2,924.5 3,439.0 2,520.8 Mohair exports, clean 381.0 299.5 255.6 213.6 Total since January 1 1,606.8 1,906.3 2,161.9 872.1 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FIBER PRICES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1999 1998 --------------------------- Item Jul Aug Sep Sep ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cents per pound Domestic cotton prices: Adjusted World Price 39.07 36.92 35.31 52.33 Oct'99 futures 50.76 51.74 51.05 71.45 Dec'99 futures 51.46 52.81 52.98 70.75 Upland spot 41-34 49.23 49.72 48.39 71.75 Pima spot 03-46 82.50 82.50 82.50 104.00 Avg. price received by: Upland producers 54.30 53.00 51.80 67.10 Mill delivered: Cotton Actual 56.24 57.14 55.98 79.02 Raw fiber equivalent 62.49 63.49 62.20 87.80 Rayon staple Actual 95.00 98.00 97.00 105.00 Raw fiber equivalent 98.96 102.08 101.04 109.38 Polyester staple Actual 52.00 52.00 53.00 58.00 Raw fiber equivalent 54.17 54.17 55.21 60.42 Price ratios Percent Cotton/rayon 63.1 62.2 61.6 80.3 Cotton/polyester 115.4 117.2 112.7 145.3 Northern Europe cotton quotes: Cents per pound A Index 54.56 50.98 49.26 66.16 Memphis Territory NQ 58.63 56.30 77.75 California/Arizona 59.05 61.50 58.80 85.56 B Index NQ NQ NQ NQ Orleans/Texas NQ 54.56 50.30 75.13 Wool prices (clean): Dollars per pound U.S. 56's 0.62 0.57 0.55 0.82 Australian 56's 1/ 1.32 1.30 1.21 1.31 U.S. 60's 0.89 0.84 0.79 0.95 Australian 60's 1/ 1.38 1.35 1.26 1.39 U.S. 64's 1.16 1.10 1.05 1.15 Australian 64's 1/ 1.52 1.48 1.39 1.44 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- NQ = No quotes. 1/ In bond, Charleston, SC. TEXTILE TRADE ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1999 1998 ---------------------------- Item May Jun Jul Jul ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Imports: 1,000 pounds 1/ Yarn, thread, and fabric 223,530 247,009 236,936 226,656 Cotton 93,422 107,427 100,891 98,900 Linen 18,267 19,837 16,025 14,887 Wool 4,395 4,697 4,591 4,552 Silk 742 780 843 906 Manmade 107,404 114,268 114,586 107,411 Apparel 550,663 743,210 795,893 784,831 Cotton 350,772 464,778 476,504 459,701 Linen 11,292 16,858 18,356 17,237 Wool 13,030 21,058 28,693 34,134 Silk 8,928 10,006 11,498 11,266 Manmade 166,641 230,510 260,842 262,493 House furnishings 51,105 63,047 67,063 57,584 Cotton 37,531 46,645 49,656 43,206 Linen 239 472 378 151 Wool 67 124 172 153 Silk 43 31 58 39 Manmade 13,225 15,775 16,799 14,035 Floor covering 34,591 35,544 33,700 25,859 Cotton 3,939 5,011 5,050 3,628 Linen 3,814 4,684 5,248 3,885 Wool 11,284 10,384 9,985 8,683 Silk 604 698 603 462 Manmade 14,950 14,767 12,814 9,201 Total imports 2/ 867,545 1,097,213 1,142,543 1,103,572 Cotton 489,637 628,656 636,884 609,626 Linen 33,656 41,909 40,052 36,207 Wool 28,977 36,489 43,744 47,800 Silk 10,317 11,514 13,003 12,674 Manmade 304,959 378,644 408,860 397,265 Exports: 1,000 pounds 1/ Yarn, thread, and fabric 189,105 200,466 169,442 147,407 Cotton 71,872 77,507 67,908 51,752 Linen 5,299 5,453 4,594 4,057 Wool 5,714 6,359 3,614 3,388 Silk 2,319 2,287 1,891 1,742 Manmade 103,901 108,860 91,435 86,468 Apparel 165,307 173,584 149,289 172,639 Cotton 102,545 105,655 90,215 102,224 Linen 1,911 2,036 1,777 1,555 Wool 6,223 6,581 6,334 9,554 Silk 3,924 3,906 3,726 4,342 Manmade 50,704 55,406 47,237 54,964 House furnishings 5,346 6,359 5,754 8,085 Cotton 3,166 3,806 3,240 5,004 Linen 148 201 189 272 Wool 59 58 51 95 Silk 117 74 85 161 Manmade 1,856 2,220 2,189 2,553 Floor covering 33,692 38,597 31,923 32,161 Cotton 2,451 2,750 2,719 3,207 Linen 1,456 1,517 1,550 1,748 Wool 3,564 2,927 2,651 2,416 Silk 75 60 81 114 Manmade 26,146 31,343 24,922 24,676 Total exports 2/ 393,675 419,264 356,751 360,672 Cotton 180,087 189,784 164,180 162,309 Linen 8,819 9,216 8,124 7,647 Wool 15,575 15,941 12,669 15,470 Silk 6,434 6,327 5,783 6,359 Manmade 182,760 197,996 165,996 168,887 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Includes headgear. U.S. COTTON TEXTILE IMPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1999 1998 ----------------------------- Item May Jun Jul Jul ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 pounds 1/ North America 230,366 263,606 256,808 229,599 Canada 21,541 21,380 18,900 15,337 Costa Rica 8,790 11,281 10,635 9,564 Dominican Republic 22,836 24,081 23,475 24,930 El Salvador 17,790 19,462 18,783 15,737 Guatemala 9,409 12,891 12,688 9,759 Haiti 3,821 4,247 4,091 3,227 Honduras 34,804 38,883 35,247 32,351 Jamaica 4,484 5,113 4,676 7,375 Mexico 103,602 121,003 122,928 106,842 Nicaragua 2,938 4,847 4,993 3,987 South America 8,030 10,490 11,127 7,620 Argentina 3 7 27 110 Brazil 1,736 2,323 2,987 1,932 Chile 23 30 37 22 Colombia 3,386 4,347 3,934 3,072 Peru 2,487 3,305 3,641 2,033 Europe 29,693 38,951 41,654 39,429 Estonia 689 690 534 937 France 508 559 668 711 Germany 815 917 896 928 Italy 3,125 3,670 4,274 3,360 Portugal 3,987 4,751 6,046 6,688 Russia 1,051 1,260 1,152 1,291 Spain 1,177 1,367 1,182 1,967 Turkey 13,666 19,960 20,347 16,928 United Kingdom 812 1,171 1,657 1,356 Asia 207,504 297,848 308,460 310,880 Bahrain 702 1,006 1,353 1,281 Bangladesh 12,390 22,306 25,540 24,812 China 28,921 44,579 44,228 46,024 Hong Kong 26,992 36,964 33,783 39,389 India 24,106 31,619 33,230 32,645 Indonesia 11,707 16,414 16,811 19,600 Israel 2,932 3,504 3,319 3,330 Japan 1,275 1,687 1,426 1,369 Macao 4,627 6,964 6,390 7,199 Malaysia 5,236 7,416 8,161 6,197 Nepal 1,320 1,706 2,014 1,550 Oman 1,502 1,949 1,859 1,281 Pakistan 27,189 34,389 38,492 40,421 Philippines 9,010 15,353 15,068 14,223 Qatar 1,092 1,551 1,764 1,974 Singapore 2,137 2,882 3,379 2,390 South Korea 8,377 11,596 11,251 11,755 Sri Lanka 5,482 8,481 10,218 10,611 Taiwan 12,169 16,537 16,077 15,945 Thailand 9,173 14,748 14,446 14,325 U Arab Em 2,248 2,798 2,879 2,962 Oceania 1,682 2,047 1,983 2,349 Australia 760 1,032 980 1,176 Fiji 663 624 655 993 Africa 12,363 15,713 16,853 19,749 Egypt 6,211 5,999 6,831 7,594 Lesotho 1,457 2,459 2,815 3,148 Mauritius 1,669 2,079 2,124 2,934 Morocco 797 1,184 798 1,431 South Africa 840 1,892 1,837 1,762 Tunisia 85 92 121 89 World 2/ 489,637 628,656 636,884 609,626 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding. U.S. COTTON TEXTILE EXPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1999 1998 ----------------------------- Country May Jun Jul Jul ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 pounds 1/ North America 161,740 170,684 148,599 138,845 Canada 28,682 28,608 21,945 23,366 Costa Rica 8,140 4,999 9,491 7,424 Dominican Republic 17,473 16,357 15,467 18,111 El Salvador 6,034 6,054 3,710 6,590 Guatemala 4,267 3,135 3,145 4,006 Haiti 1,930 2,751 2,514 1,126 Honduras 25,274 26,082 16,806 18,232 Jamaica 2,156 3,121 2,402 4,823 Mexico 65,884 77,990 71,704 53,708 South America 3,538 3,828 3,484 5,116 Argentina 111 228 155 217 Brazil 253 319 388 451 Chile 484 468 440 774 Colombia 1,938 1,266 1,258 1,435 Peru 42 92 66 111 Venezuela 383 1,206 918 1,620 Europe 6,615 7,332 4,610 10,379 Belgium 1,601 1,967 396 3,203 France 293 291 338 608 Germany 959 692 610 848 Ireland 155 104 46 202 Italy 269 232 221 252 Netherlands 294 501 656 652 United Kingdom 1,886 1,804 1,578 3,131 Asia 6,941 6,669 6,178 6,688 China 322 298 177 170 Hong Kong 864 811 786 784 Israel 420 439 654 518 Japan 3,059 2,803 2,493 2,583 Philippines 231 229 237 205 Saudi Arabia 260 379 286 610 Singapore 259 313 255 228 South Korea 265 266 394 280 Taiwan 279 351 124 252 U Arab Em 227 135 159 258 Oceania 772 599 662 819 Australia 539 411 525 501 New Zealand 82 107 89 1 Africa 481 673 648 461 Egypt 46 3 6 11 Ghana 35 16 40 8 Ivory Coast 13 45 4 34 Nigeria 129 220 292 124 South Africa 46 100 109 106 World 2/ 180,087 189,784 164,180 162,309 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding. ACREAGE, YIELD, AND PRODUCTION ESTIMATES FOR 1999 ------------------------------------------------------------------- State/ Region Harvested Yield Production ------------------------------------------------------------------- Lbs./ 1,000 acres harvested acre 1,000 bales Upland: Alabama 560 557 650 Florida 88 524 96 Georgia 1,450 530 1,600 N. Carolina 810 501 845 S. Carolina 315 518 340 Virginia 109 819 186 Southeast 3,332 535 3,717 Arkansas 960 665 1,330 Louisiana 595 686 850 Mississippi 1,180 716 1,760 Missouri 375 550 430 Tennessee 565 442 520 Delta 3,675 639 4,890 Kansas 28 411 24 Oklahoma 170 480 170 Texas 5,000 461 4,800 Southwest 5,198 461 4,994 Arizona 239 1,155 575 California 585 1,190 1,450 New Mexico 67 716 100 West 891 1,145 2,125 Total Upland 13,096 576 15,726 Pima: Arizona 11 814 19 California 259 1,149 620 New Mexico 7 686 10 Texas 32 825 55 Total Pima 309 1,093 704 Total All 13,405 588 16,430 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA's October Crop Production report. END_OF_FILE