COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK December 13, 1999 December 1999, CWS-1199 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK is issued 10 times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no published copies are available. COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK is supplemented by an annual COTTON AND WOOL YEARBOOK. The yearbook summary for 1999 was released on November 22, 1999. Yearbooks are available in print from the USDA Order Desk. For the 1999 issue, call 1-800- 999-6779 (703-605-6220) and ask for stock #ERS-CWS-1999, $21. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS U.S. 1999 Cotton Production Increases Demand and Stocks To Expand This Season Textile Trade Declines in September, Deficit Continues To Climb Foreign Production and Consumption Brazil Lower, But Asian Crops Strong Foreign Consumption and Imports Higher in 1999/2000 Special Article--Relationship Between November Commitments and U.S. Marketing Year Exports U.S. 1999 Cotton Production Increases According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) December Crop Production report, the 1999 U.S. cotton crop is forecast at nearly 16.9 million bales, 2 percent above last month and 21 percent higher than 1998/99. Upland production is forecast at 16.2 million bales, while the extra-long staple (ELS) crop is projected at a 10-year high of 679,000 bales. During the previous 20 years, the December forecast has been below final production 11 times and above 9 times. And, past differences between the December forecast and the final production estimate indicate that chances are two out of three for the 1999 U.S. cotton crop to range between 16.6 and 17.2 million bales. Meanwhile, cotton ginnings are reported higher than a year ago. As of December 1, 13.6 million running bales had been ginned, compared with about 11.3 million at this time last year. Compared with last season, upland production is projected to rise in three of the four regions of the Cotton Belt, while the Southeast crop is expected fall below a year ago. In the Southeast, upland production is forecast at 3.5 million bales, 200,000 below last season and the lowest since 1993. As a result of the weather-related problems this season, the Southeast yield is expected to reach only 508 pounds per harvested acre, the lowest since 1986. In the Southwest, upland output is expected to increase 1.5 million bales this season to nearly 5.3 million, with Texas' production accounting for 5.1 million of the total. The average upland yield for the region in 1999 is slightly above one bale per harvested acre at 487 pounds. The 5-year average for the Southwest is 462 pounds. For the Delta region, upland production is projected to reach 5.1 million bales, or 22 percent above 1998. Although harvested area is up 500,000 acres in the Delta this season and a higher regional yield of 669 pounds per harvested acre is forecast, production there remains well below the 5-year average of 5.8 million bales. In the West, upland output is expected to approach 2.3 million bales. Although a rebound in yield has pushed the 1999 production 24 percent above last season's weather-damaged crop, this season's production remains well below the 5-year average of 3 million bales. In addition to upland, ELS production in the West is expected to rise more than 200,000 bales this season, with California responsible for the gain. California continues to dominate ELS production and is projected to account for 88 percent of the ELS crop in 1999. Total planted area to cotton is estimated at 14.6 million acres and abandonment is projected at a relatively normal 8 percent. As a result, cotton area to be harvested is forecast at 13.4 million acres, 25 percent above last season and the highest since 1995. Based on the harvested area, the national yield is estimated at only 604 pounds per acre, 21 pounds below 1998 and the lowest since 1995. Demand and Stocks To Expand This Season Based on the December production forecast and carryin stocks estimated at 3.9 million bales, total U.S. cotton supplies for 1999/2000 are projected to rise 14 percent to 20.9 million. Although total use of U.S. cotton is also projected to increase this season, the gains in production have been greater as strong foreign competition continues in the raw fiber and textile sectors. In 1999/2000, total U.S. cotton demand is forecast to reach 16.4 million bales, 11 percent above last season but still below the 5-year average of 18 million bales. For 1999/2000, U.S. raw cotton exports are projected to rebound, but remain well below the level experienced as recently as 1997/98. The current forecast--at 6.2 million bales--is 1.9 million above 1998/99. Although formidable competition from foreign exporters is likely most of the season, the refunding of the "Step 2" program in October has boosted sales and commitments over the last 2 months. As of early December, the Export Sales report indicates that 4.9 million bales have been committed this season, with 1.2 million shipped. This compares with commitments of only 3.9 million bales a year ago but shipments of 1.7 million. The larger shipments at this time last season were the result of the race for "Step 2" funds which ended in mid-December. In addition, the larger U.S. supplies--particularly of "short-staple" cotton--and a boost in foreign import demand are also aiding this season's expectations for U.S. cotton exports. As of December 1, "short-staple" (1-inch and below) cotton accounted for about 14 percent of the cotton classed this season, the largest share since 1990. Based on the current projections of U.S. and world trade, the U.S. share of global exports is estimated at nearly 24 percent, up from 18.4 percent in 1998/99. For 1999/2000, U.S. cotton mill use is projected to decline slightly. Mill use is currently estimated at 10.2 million bales, 2 percent below the final 1998/99 estimate of 10.4 million. Although abundant cotton supply projections have produced a more competitive price situation with polyester staple fibers, mill demand for all fibers is expected to grow slowly this year. In addition, the continued importation of foreign-produced textile and apparel products and a slowdown in the "exceptional" growth seen in the U.S. economy over the last 3 years is expected to play a crucial role in the amount of raw cotton consumed by U.S. mills. While the North American Free Trade Agreement has increased cotton textile trade over the past 5 years, the strength of the dollar has also encouraged extensive foreign shipments to the United States, leading to the second consecutive year in which the raw-fiber equivalent of cotton textile imports exceeds the quantity consumed by domestic mills. For calendar 1999, cotton textile imports could reach the equivalent of 13.5 million bales. Based on these U.S. cotton supply and demand projections, ending stocks for 1999/2000 are projected to expand about half a million bales from the beginning level to 4.5 million. As a result, the implied stocks-to-use ratio for the season is currently near 27 percent, similar to last season but the largest since 1992/93. Textile Trade Declines in September, Deficit Continues To Climb Textile imports declined in September to 1.15 billion pounds after increasing the previous 4 months. Shipments fell 2 percent from a month earlier, but were 9 percent above September 1998. Lower imports of all major end-use categories occurred in September compared with a month earlier. Smaller shipments of cotton, wool, and manmade textiles more than offset slight increases in linen and silk. Cotton textile imports, at 609 million pounds, were down 5 percent from August, but were 8 percent above September 1998. On a regional basis, most of the September decline occurred in Asian countries. Lower shipments from major suppliers such as China, Hong Kong, India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan accounted for the majority of the decrease. Total textile exports also declined in September. Shipments, at 379 million pounds, were 6 percent below August and were only 1.3 million pounds above a year ago. Exports of all major fibers, except linen, declined from the previous month. Also, all major end-use categories, except home furnishings, declined from a month earlier. Cotton textile exports, at 168 million pounds, were 5 percent below a month earlier and only 1.5 million pounds above September 1998. Shipments of all cotton end-use categories were below August levels. U.S. cotton textile exports to North America declined nearly 9 million pounds to 151 million. U.S. cotton shipments to Mexico, at 67 million pounds, were 11 percent below August exports. The cumulative January through September trade deficit reached 5.58 billion pounds. The deficit for the corresponding period during 1998 was 4.87 billion pounds. Total imports, at 9.0 billion pounds, are 9 percent (757 million pounds) above last year. However, total textile exports rose only 1 percent (51 million pounds) to 3.45 billion pounds from a year earlier. The 9-month cotton textile trade deficit, at 3.5 billion pounds, is 13 percent above 1998. Despite record export shipments, the annual deficit in textile trade could reach 7.4 billion pounds, surpassing the 1998 record of nearly 6.5 billion. Foreign Production and Consumption Foreign production in 1999/2000 is forecast to reach 70.5 million bales, virtually the same level as in 1998/99 and virtually the same level of 1999/2000 production that was forecast one month ago in November. Foreign consumption in 1999/2000 is forecast to reach 77.7 million bales, 4 percent above 1998/99 consumption, but essentially the same level of 1999/2000 consumption that was forecast in November. Imports by foreign markets in 1999/2000 are expected to rise 7.5 percent from the year before, while exports by foreign competitors are expected to rise only 3.6 percent. Compared with November, each of these forecasts has become more favorable to U.S. export prospects: December's 1999/2000 foreign import forecast is 2.1 percent higher than November's, and December's foreign export forecast is 0.3 percent lower. This was one factor supporting the increase in USDA's forecast of 1999/2000 exports to 6.2 million bales compared with 5.7 million bales in November. Foreign production in 1999/2000 is estimated lower in December than a month earlier, in large part due to continued unfavorable weather in South America; smaller crops are expected in Argentina and Brazil as a result of this dryness. The forecast of Argentina's 1999/2000 harvested cotton area was reduced 175,000 hectares to 325,000 hectares. In 1998/99, 650,000 hectares were harvested in Argentina. Argentina's northern provinces have received little rainfall in the cotton growing regions to date, and various sources estimate actual plantings to date between 150,000 and 350,000 hectares. Typically, much of the year's total area is already planted by this time, and, typically, more than 10 percent is subsequently abandoned. Balancing how this year's events are likely to affect these ratios of planting progress and subsequent abandonment gives an estimate for harvested area of 325,000 hectares, albeit within wide range of other possible outcomes. Similarly, Argentina's yields have been highly variable in recent years, reaching 437 kg/ha in 1995/96 and 301 kg/ha in 1998/99. An average over this period is 367 kg/ha, essentially the yield used to forecast Argentina's 1999/2000 crop at 550,000 bales. This estimate is 450,000 bales smaller than the 1998/99 crop and 350,000 bales smaller than November's estimate of the 1999/2000 crop. Brazil Lower, But Asian Crops Strong Brazil's expected 1999/2000 production was also reduced 200,000 bales from November's estimate, and substantially smaller revisions were made in the forecasts for Cameroon and Tajikistan. Higher production was forecast this month for India in 1999/2000 as reports of favorable late season weather in northern India suggest the strong pace of arrivals there are driven by the size of the crop rather than its timing. India's production forecast was increased 300,000 bales to 13 million bales, this would be the highest crop since 1996/97. Uzbekistan's crop was estimated 100,000 bales higher this month as arrivals maintained a strong pace, supporting an estimated crop of 5.3 million bales, also the highest since 1996/97. Yields, at 769 kg/ha, are forecast to be the highest since 1995/96, and, with a year-to-year increase of nearly 100 kg/ha, yields have realized their biggest positive change of the 1990's. The same comparisons apply to Turkmenistan--its highest yield since 1995/96, and the biggest positive yield change of the 1990's, in this case an increase from the year before of more than 100 kg/ha. While there is considerable uncertainty regarding virtually all data from Turkmenistan, the coincidence of rebounding yields in northern India, Uzbekistan, and Pakistan suggest that conditions in Turkmenistan might also have been favorable. Pakistan's production forecast in 1999/2000 remains at 7.8 million bales, unchanged from its November level. While official forecasts in Pakistan are higher, and many industry forecasts as well, a slowdown in gin arrivals has led some estimates in Pakistan to decline in the last month. At 566 kg/ha, Pakistan's 1999/2000 yield is forecast nearly 200 kg/ha above its 1998/99 level; this would be the second largest such increase of the 1990's. Only Pakistan's extra-ordinary 1991/92 crop showed a larger annual increase, and the varieties planted at that time have largely been superseded by lower-yielding, Leaf-curl virus (LCV) resistant varieties. Similarly, there was no change in China's expected 1999/2000 output this month, despite reports that some government agencies in China are estimating the crop below USDA's 19 million bale forecast. Some reports indicate procurement to date has fallen from the year before by substantially more than the 8-percent decline USDA is forecasting in production. Much of that decline in procurement may be attributable to the dramatic changes this year in China's cotton policies--the end of guaranteed procurement, the end of guaranteed prices, and the opening of cotton procurement to new participants. The presence of new legal procurement entities, and widespread reports of unsanctioned entities, suggest that procurement by the Supply and Marketing Cooperatives should fall. Similarly, the substantial drop in procurement prices could delay farmer deliveries to procurement stations, and there have been reports that procurement/ prices have begun rising in China, suggesting a reduced incentive to delay. Finally, it is not uncommon that forecasts circulating during December turn out to be lower than the State Statistical Bureau's subsequent estimates, and in each of the last 4 years USDA has raised its China production estimates in the months following December. Foreign Consumption and Imports Higher in 1999/2000 Foreign consumption in 1999/2000 is forecast at about the same level as a month ago, as downward revisions in a number of countries offset an increase in prospective consumption in Brazil. Industry reports suggest a higher Brazilian 1998/99 consumption figure than earlier, and prospects for growth in 1999/2000 are at least as strong as before, suggesting 1999/2000 consumption should therefore be higher as well, and the forecast was raised 200,000 bales to 3.8 million. Similarly, Indonesia's 1998/99 imports were higher than previously forecast, suggesting higher consumption in 1998/99 and 1999/2000. However, full year 1998/99 import data for Germany and Italy totaled below previous forecasts, resulting in lower consumption estimates, and a review of historical Ukrainian consumption data suggests USDA has overestimated consumption there for several years, resulting in downward revisions, including 1999/2000. Foreign imports in 1999/2000 were revised up 540,000 bales from the month before in December, while foreign exports were revised down 50,000 bales. Much of the foreign import increase is attributable to Brazil, where consumption was raised, and production lowered. Larger imports were also expected in Pakistan and Indonesia, while forecasts were lowered for China, Germany, Italy, and Ukraine. Expected 1999/2000 foreign trade was revised about 600,000 bales in favor of the United States in December once both export and import revisions are accounted for. This, combined with the continued growth in export commitments during the last month, suggested stronger U.S. export prospects than during November. Special Article: Relationship Between November Commitments and U.S. Marketing Year Exports by Stephen MacDonald The current marketing year is unusual in at least two important respects: the return of the "Step 2" program and the unusually large amount of "short-staple" (1-inch and below) cotton. Both of these factors have contributed to an unusually large amount of U.S. export sales given the circumstances of foreign supply and demand. While there is a wide range of marketing year export totals that are statistically consistent with the current level of commitments, it is worth noting that using historical correlations between November commitments and marketing year exports, USDA's current 1999/2000 6.2-million-bale-export forecast is below the midpoint of at least one forecast. Regressing U.S. export commitments (running bales) during the 17th week of the marketing year on the actual Census Bureau marketing year export totals (480-lb. bales) is the simplest way of establishing correlation. However, there are several reasons that this would be inappropriate. The operation of the "Step 2" program since 1991 has been widely acknowledged to have disrupted the historical relationship between commitments and exports. Early in the program's operation the phenomenon known as "bunching" meant that a substantial portion of future expected export shipments were committed during a very short period of time in response to favorable "Step 2" rates. Similarly, during 1998/99 a portion of commitments and shipments were undertaken early in the season to ensure their consummation before the impending exhaustion of "Step 2" funding. Finally, during 1985/86 the traditional relationship was disrupted by the impending transition to the U.S. 1985 farm legislation, and, as in 1998/99, export activity was moved forward in the marketing year. Regressing 1976-98 week 17 commitments on actual census exports for those years, with dummies for "bunching" in 1992-93, and shifts in 1998 and 1995, suggests week 17 commitments should equal 73 percent of total marketing year exports. Assuming a 4-percent adjustment from running bales to 480-lb. bales, 1999 commitments suggest exports of 6.4 million 480-lb. bales. While the R-squared of the regression is 90 percent, the standard error is 560,000 bales, suggesting that the high R-squared in part represents a shared upward trend. This simple correlation in no way accounts for the impact of 1999/2000's "short-fiber" sales, nor for the impact of this year's changes in the timing and circumstances in the operation of the "Step 2" program. It is simply a way to adjust early-season commitments data for some major past events, supporting the widespread contention that U.S. exports could exceed 6.0 million bales during 1999/2000. * * * * * Copies of the 1999 Cotton and Wool Yearbook (CWS-1999) are available for purchase. For information, call 1-800-999-6779. The next Cotton and Wool Outlook (CWS-0100) will be released on February 14, 2000. **************************************************************************** Information Contacts: Leslie Meyer (U.S. Cotton and Textiles) LMEYER@ECON.AG.GOV (202) 694-5307 Stephen MacDonald (Foreign Cotton) STEPHENM@ECON.AG.GOV (202) 694-5305 Robert Skinner (Textiles and Wool) RSKINNER@ECON.AG.GOV (202) 694-5313 **************************************************************************** U.S. COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1999/2000 ---------------------------- Item 1998/99 Oct Nov Dec ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Upland: Million acres Planted 13.064 14.283 14.283 14.283 Harvested 10.449 13.096 13.096 13.096 Pounds Yield/harvested acre 619 576 581 594 Million 480-lb. bales Beginning stocks 3.822 3.836 3.836 3.836 Production 13.476 15.726 15.846 16.196 Total supply 1/ 17.729 19.627 19.747 20.097 Mill use 10.254 10.050 10.040 10.040 Exports 4.056 5.020 5.325 5.800 Total use 14.310 15.070 15.365 15.840 Ending stocks 3.836 4.503 4.327 4.258 Percent Stocks-to-use ratio 26.8 29.9 28.2 26.9 Extra-long staple: 1,000 acres Planted 328 318 318 318 Harvested 235 309 309 309 Pounds Yield/harvested acre 904 1,093 1,063 1,054 1,000 480-lb. bales Beginning stocks 65 103 103 103 Production 442 704 685 679 Total supply 1/ 519 817 798 792 Mill use 147 150 160 160 Exports 288 480 375 400 Total use 435 630 535 560 Ending stocks 103 197 273 242 Percent Stocks-to-use ratio 23.7 31.3 51.0 43.2 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA estimates. 1/ Includes imports. WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1999/2000 ------------------------------ Item 1998/99 Oct Nov Dec ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Supply: Million 480-lb. bales Beginning stocks World 40.77 41.78 41.96 41.66 Foreign 36.89 37.84 38.02 37.72 Production World 84.54 86.05 87.35 87.38 Foreign 70.62 69.61 70.82 70.51 Imports World 24.90 25.67 25.83 26.38 Foreign 24.46 25.59 25.76 26.30 Use: Mill use World 85.10 87.06 87.82 87.89 Foreign 74.70 76.86 77.62 77.69 Exports World 23.59 25.21 25.69 26.14 Foreign 19.24 19.71 19.99 19.94 Ending stocks World 41.66 40.94 41.34 41.15 Foreign 37.72 36.24 36.74 36.65 Stocks-to-use ratio Percent World 49.0 47.0 47.1 46.8 Foreign 50.5 47.2 47.3 47.2 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA estimates. FIBER SUPPLY ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1999 1998 --------------------------- Item Aug Sep Oct Oct ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb. bales Ginnings 577 2,207 5,685 5,448 Imports since August 1 35.7 46.2 NA 0.6 Stocks, beginning 3,939 3,427 4,631 3,468 At mills 589 588 559 661 Public storage 3,330 2,939 3,993 2,959 CCC stocks 436 423 591 296 Manmade: Million pounds Production 859.1 818.0 885.3 869.7 Noncellulosic 837.0 795.6 862.6 840.6 Cellulosic 22.1 22.4 22.7 29.1 Total since January 1 6,890.2 7,708.2 8,593.5 9,154.6 1999 1998 ---------------------------- Jul Aug Sep Sep ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Million pounds Raw fiber imports 129.9 143.8 124.7 125.9 Noncellulosic 124.7 139.2 119.3 119.7 Cellulosic 5.2 4.6 5.4 6.2 Total since January 1 914.2 1,058.0 1,182.7 1,126.9 Wool and Mohair: 1,000 pounds Raw wool imports, clean 3,677 3,086 2,560 3,252 48's-and-finer 2,063 1,111 964 1,503 Not-finer-than-46's 1,614 1,975 1,596 1,749 Total since January 1 35,003 31,472 34,032 53,965 Wool top imports 196 105 96 136 Total since January 1 925 1,030 1,126 1,879 Mohair imports, clean 0 0 0 0 Total since January 1 16 16 16 2 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NA = Not available. COTTON SYSTEM FIBER CONSUMPTION ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1999 1998 --------------------------- Item Aug Sep Oct Oct ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb. bales All consumed by mills 1/ 872 867 871 957 Total since August 1 1/ 872 1,738 2,609 2,805 SA annual rate 2/ 9,930 9,944 10,338 10,930 SA daily rate 2/ 38.0 38.1 39.6 42.0 Daily rate 39.6 39.4 41.5 43.5 Upland consumed by mills 1/ 857 856 860 944 Total since August 1 1/ 857 1,713 2,573 2,769 SA daily rate 2/ 37.4 37.6 39.1 41.4 Daily rate 39.0 38.9 41.0 42.9 Spindles in place 4,980 4,949 4,947 5,357 Active spindles 4,665 4,610 4,608 5,032 100 percent cotton 2,523 2,460 2,440 2,678 100 percent manmade 737 745 744 779 Blends 1,405 1,405 1,424 1,575 Percent Cotton's share of fibers 78.5 78.6 78.9 80.1 Manmade: 1,000 pounds Total consumed by mills 1/ 114,684 112,985 111,884 114,237 Total since August 1 1/ 114,684 227,669 339,553 349,917 Daily rate 5,213 5,136 5,328 5,193 Noncellulosic staple 4,922 4,819 4,985 4,811 Cellulosic staple 291 317 343 382 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Adjusted to calendar month. 2/ SA = seasonally adjusted. FIBER EXPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1999 1998 -------------------------- Item Jul Aug Sep Sep ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb. bales Upland exports 309 236 133 273 Total since August 1 4,056 236 369 666 Sales for next season 368 108 14 4 Total since August 1 1,637 108 122 86 ELS exports 20.1 17.4 13.2 7.2 Total since August 1 287.7 17.4 30.6 16.8 Sales for next season 43.6 2.5 0.5 0.0 Total since August 1 136.4 2.5 3.0 0.4 Manmade: Million pounds Raw fiber exports 72.0 83.2 82.6 87.6 Noncellulosic 69.6 80.6 79.2 85.3 Cellulosic 2.4 2.6 3.4 2.3 Total since January 1 553.1 636.3 718.9 778.5 Wool and Mohair: 1,000 pounds Raw wool exports, clean 286.8 270.0 536.2 98.8 Total since January 1 1,641.8 1,911.8 2,448.0 1,578.0 Wool top exports 514.5 873.8 491.3 108.2 Total since January 1 2,439.0 3,312.8 3,804.1 4,738.0 Mohair exports, clean 255.6 439.2 531.2 176.6 Total since January 1 2,161.9 2,601.1 3,132.3 1,216.0 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FIBER PRICES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1999 1998 --------------------------- Item Sep Oct Nov Nov ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cents per pound Domestic cotton prices: Adjusted World Price 35.31 33.32 32.18 42.82 Mar'00 futures 54.24 54.60 52.18 68.47 Dec'00 futures 57.25 57.50 56.25 NA Upland spot 41-34 48.39 49.46 48.12 64.95 Pima spot 03-46 82.50 82.50 82.35 100.00 Avg. price received by: Upland producers 46.20 45.90 46.80 64.60 Mill delivered: Cotton Actual 55.98 57.79 55.88 71.48 Raw fiber equivalent 62.20 64.21 62.09 79.42 Rayon staple Actual 97.00 97.00 97.00 101.00 Raw fiber equivalent 101.04 101.04 101.04 105.21 Polyester staple Actual 53.00 53.00 53.00 53.00 Raw fiber equivalent 55.21 55.21 55.21 55.21 Price ratios Percent Cotton/rayon 61.6 63.5 61.4 75.5 Cotton/polyester 112.7 116.3 112.5 143.9 Northern Europe cotton quotes: Cents per pound A Index 49.26 47.36 46.13 56.53 Memphis Territory 56.30 56.88 54.31 71.50 California/Arizona 58.80 59.13 54.31 71.69 B Index NQ NQ 42.37 54.13 Orleans/Texas 50.30 49.25 43.00 64.38 Wool prices (clean): U.S. 56's 0.55 0.50 0.45 0.80 Australian 56's 1/ 1.21 1.18 1.20 1.28 U.S. 60's 0.79 0.72 0.70 1.05 Australian 60's 1/ 1.26 1.23 1.29 1.47 U.S. 64's 1.05 1.00 1.00 1.15 Australian 64's 1/ 1.39 1.39 1.43 1.56 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NQ = No quotes. 1/ In bond, Charleston, SC. TEXTILE TRADE ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1999 1998 ---------------------------- Item Jul Aug Sep Sep --------------------------------------------------------------------- Imports: 1,000 pounds 1/ Yarn, thread, and fabric 236,936 242,821 238,717 218,006 Cotton 100,891 106,075 102,268 96,990 Linen 16,025 15,573 20,471 17,501 Wool 4,591 3,795 3,924 3,653 Silk 843 828 837 849 Manmade 114,586 116,550 111,217 99,013 Apparel 795,893 816,289 802,165 739,568 Cotton 476,504 466,812 447,005 414,420 Linen 18,356 19,007 20,647 19,752 Wool 28,693 35,430 35,976 34,704 Silk 11,498 11,912 12,945 11,901 Manmade 260,842 283,128 285,592 258,791 House furnishings 67,063 76,170 73,375 62,309 Cotton 49,656 56,077 52,016 45,170 Linen 378 420 625 188 Wool 172 216 296 209 Silk 58 86 112 69 Manmade 16,799 19,371 20,326 16,673 Floor covering 33,700 35,441 31,836 28,500 Cotton 5,050 5,446 4,128 3,856 Linen 5,248 5,156 4,736 4,220 Wool 9,985 9,861 8,781 8,150 Silk 603 790 570 399 Manmade 12,814 14,188 13,621 11,875 Total imports 2/ 1,142,543 1,179,694 1,154,414 1,056,109 Cotton 636,884 638,430 609,084 563,822 Linen 40,052 40,225 46,555 41,699 Wool 43,744 49,668 49,291 46,971 Silk 13,003 13,616 14,465 13,218 Manmade 408,860 437,754 435,019 390,398 Exports: 1,000 pounds 1/ Yarn, thread, and fabric 169,442 197,680 193,571 164,280 Cotton 67,908 78,343 74,683 58,406 Linen 4,594 5,777 5,629 4,507 Wool 3,614 5,922 6,056 3,687 Silk 1,891 2,386 2,183 1,843 Manmade 91,435 105,252 105,020 95,837 Apparel 149,289 161,651 142,432 167,791 Cotton 90,215 92,076 86,582 100,089 Linen 1,777 2,113 1,994 1,882 Wool 6,334 8,099 5,838 8,318 Silk 3,726 5,859 3,372 3,648 Manmade 47,237 53,504 44,646 53,854 House furnishings 5,754 7,320 7,744 8,967 Cotton 3,240 4,493 4,454 5,236 Linen 189 186 199 317 Wool 51 30 82 101 Silk 85 92 92 168 Manmade 2,189 2,519 2,917 3,145 Floor covering 31,923 35,598 35,180 36,592 Cotton 2,719 2,630 2,445 2,963 Linen 1,550 1,388 1,688 1,812 Wool 2,651 3,594 3,655 3,355 Silk 81 76 80 91 Manmade 24,922 27,910 27,312 28,371 Total exports 2/ 356,751 402,585 379,193 377,896 Cotton 164,180 177,629 168,251 166,765 Linen 8,124 9,473 9,518 8,528 Wool 12,669 17,659 15,642 15,478 Silk 5,783 8,413 5,727 5,749 Manmade 165,996 189,411 180,055 181,376 --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Includes headgear. U.S. COTTON TEXTILE IMPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1999 1998 ----------------------------- Item Jul Aug Sep Sep ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 pounds 1/ North America 256,808 254,018 247,797 221,062 Canada 18,900 22,624 23,207 21,493 Costa Rica 10,635 9,694 11,297 9,684 Dominican Republic 23,475 21,226 22,335 19,809 El Salvador 18,783 18,024 18,343 13,842 Guatemala 12,688 12,822 11,155 9,657 Haiti 4,091 4,484 4,216 3,167 Honduras 35,247 36,663 35,042 28,747 Jamaica 4,676 4,155 3,678 6,345 Mexico 122,928 119,212 113,895 104,608 Nicaragua 4,993 4,755 4,180 3,294 South America 11,127 11,421 10,411 7,705 Argentina 27 9 18 98 Brazil 2,987 3,422 3,066 2,476 Chile 37 13 1 52 Colombia 3,934 4,301 3,374 2,951 Peru 3,641 3,201 3,543 1,801 Europe 41,654 40,854 39,412 31,453 Estonia 534 174 718 636 France 668 571 576 686 Germany 896 880 1,245 977 Italy 4,274 3,748 2,572 1,929 Portugal 6,046 8,624 4,755 4,715 Russia 1,152 1,326 1,852 988 Spain 1,182 1,729 1,401 1,734 Turkey 20,347 17,396 19,792 13,659 United Kingdom 1,657 1,399 1,512 1,661 Asia 308,460 313,651 293,849 283,440 Bahrain 1,353 1,404 1,470 1,199 Bangladesh 25,540 26,083 21,777 21,429 China 44,228 48,393 44,497 40,518 Hong Kong 33,783 31,509 28,658 34,147 India 33,230 34,830 32,107 36,003 Indonesia 16,811 16,385 16,306 16,543 Israel 2,319 3,000 3,046 2,397 Japan 1,426 1,380 1,269 1,142 Macao 6,390 5,675 5,479 6,712 Malaysia 8,161 7,689 7,122 6,085 Nepal 2,014 1,525 1,733 1,177 Oman 1,859 1,724 1,661 2,012 Pakistan 38,492 42,241 40,505 36,616 Philippines 15,068 13,201 13,185 11,031 Qatar 1,764 1,613 1,621 1,543 Singapore 3,379 3,446 3,163 2,614 South Korea 11,251 11,092 10,588 10,182 Sri Lanka 10,218 8,729 8,124 9,373 Taiwan 16,077 18,388 16,859 16,298 Thailand 14,446 15,916 15,454 13,108 U Arab Em 2,879 4,072 3,118 2,377 Oceania 1,983 1,948 2,477 2,462 Australia 980 907 1,147 883 Fiji 655 706 956 1,270 Africa 16,853 16,536 15,138 17,701 Egypt 6,831 6,367 6,208 7,549 Lesotho 2,815 2,402 1,968 1,914 Mauritius 2,124 2,127 2,319 2,376 Morocco 798 943 660 985 South Africa 1,837 2,203 1,707 2,080 Tunisia 121 77 36 110 World 2/ 636,884 638,430 609,084 563,822 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding. U.S. COTTON TEXTILE EXPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1999 1998 ----------------------------- Country Jul Aug Sep Sep ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 pounds 1/ North America 148,599 159,977 150,989 151,712 Canada 21,945 30,843 30,207 28,429 Costa Rica 9,491 6,267 7,639 8,985 Dominican Republic 15,467 15,022 12,183 18,362 El Salvador 3,710 5,014 3,771 7,089 Guatemala 3,145 3,292 4,650 4,101 Haiti 2,514 1,438 2,139 1,643 Honduras 16,806 19,594 19,251 23,641 Jamaica 2,402 2,118 2,672 4,851 Mexico 71,704 74,747 66,747 52,826 South America 3,484 3,281 2,787 3,579 Argentina 155 191 120 260 Brazil 388 361 509 605 Chile 440 392 287 667 Colombia 1,258 1,305 1,088 1,070 Peru 66 298 95 94 Venezuela 918 538 538 442 Europe 4,610 6,129 6,532 10,454 Belgium 396 784 1,853 3,262 France 338 355 378 478 Germany 610 853 753 962 Ireland 46 43 58 266 Italy 221 274 323 308 Netherlands 656 477 360 897 United Kingdom 1,578 1,834 1,562 2,838 Asia 6,178 6,824 6,796 8,077 China 177 296 130 177 Hong Kong 786 706 818 941 Israel 654 647 621 715 Japan 2,493 2,972 2,855 3,345 Philippines 237 143 174 304 Saudi Arabia 286 487 257 862 Singapore 255 346 342 195 South Korea 394 304 384 237 Taiwan 124 203 130 237 U Arab Em 159 147 238 285 Oceania 662 691 571 923 Australia 525 514 439 761 New Zealand 89 103 111 76 Africa 648 727 577 852 Egypt 6 3 5 10 Ghana 40 31 62 11 Ivory Coast 4 7 22 30 Nigeria 292 205 115 273 South Africa 109 57 68 139 World 2/ 164,180 177,629 168,251 175,598 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding. ACREAGE, YIELD, AND PRODUCTION ESTIMATES FOR 1999 ------------------------------------------------------------------- State/ Region Harvested Yield Production ------------------------------------------------------------------- Lbs./ 1,000 acres harvested acre 1,000 bales Upland: Alabama 560 540 630 Florida 88 524 96 Georgia 1,450 513 1,550 N. Carolina 810 462 780 S. Carolina 315 434 285 Virginia 109 819 186 Southeast 3,332 508 3,527 Arkansas 960 715 1,430 Louisiana 595 726 900 Mississippi 1,180 708 1,740 Missouri 375 595 465 Tennessee 565 501 590 Delta 3,675 669 5,125 Kansas 28 411 24 Oklahoma 170 424 150 Texas 5,000 490 5,100 Southwest 5,198 487 5,274 Arizona 239 1,245 620 California 585 1,272 1,550 New Mexico 67 716 100 West 891 1,223 2,270 Total Upland 13,096 594 16,196 Pima: Arizona 11 750 18 California 259 1,112 600 New Mexico 7 583 9 Texas 32 795 53 Total Pima 309 1,054 679 Total All 13,405 604 16,875 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA's December Crop Production report. END_OF_FILE