COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK April 12, 2000 April 2000, ERS-CWS-0300 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board -------------------------------------------------------------------------- COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK is issued electronically monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no printed copies available. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS o Cotton Area Projected Higher in 2000 o 1999/2000 U.S. Total Supply/Demand Unchanged o World Consumption Expected To Increase 6.6 Percent in 1999/2000 o USDA Revises China's Estimated Consumption: 1991/92-1999/2000 o Textile Imports and Exports Rebound in January 2000 Cotton Area Projected Higher in 2000 Farmers intend to plant nearly 15.6 million acres of cotton in 2000 (up 5 percent), according to the United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA) Prospective Plantings report released on March 31. Upland plantings are expected to surpass 15.3 million acres, 5 percent above 1999, while extra-long staple (ELS) area is projected to fall 25 percent to 217,000 acres. The anticipated increase in upland area from last season is attributable to several factors, including the benefits of the cotton marketing loan program, changes to government programs related to cotton, and long-term drought conditions--that favor cotton over alternative crops--that have plagued parts of the Cottonbelt, particularly Texas. While December cotton futures prices for the first three months of 2000 were similar to a year ago at nearly 61 cents per pound, competing crop prices for corn (September futures) and soybeans (November futures) were slightly higher than a year ago. However, the related price ratios evidently still favor cotton. During January-March 2000, the corn:cotton ratio averaged 4.0, compared with 3.8 a year ago, while the soybean:cotton ratio averaged 8.7, compared with 8.5 in 1999. Also, with relatively low farm prices during 1999, the marketing loan program provided the possibility of additional benefits (loan deficiency payments) of up to 22 cents per pound to the producer. Although producer expectations for these payments are likely to be lower in 2000, changes in the crop insurance program and in payment limitations have helped boost cotton area expectations for the upcoming season. According to the Prospective Plantings report, each region reported area gains from the 1999 season. In the Southwest, upland area is projected to rise 3 percent to 6.6 million acres, the largest area since 1995. The Delta is expected to expand 5.5 percent to 3.9 million acres, the highest since 1996. Area in the Southeast is also likely to increase to 3.6 million acres, 5 percent above last season and the highest planted area since 1954. Meanwhile, the West is projected to jump 22 percent to nearly 1.2 million acres, similar to 1997 but at the expense of ELS plantings in California. While only a handful of States have planted any cotton, plantings seem to be progressing faster than average this spring. As of April 9, California, Arizona, and Texas led the way with cotton plantings at 35 percent, 28 percent, and 11 percent complete. Several other States have 5 percent or less planted at this point. Overall, as of April 9, U.S. cotton plantings were 8 percent complete, compared with 5 percent last year and a 5-year average of 6 percent. 1999/2000 U.S. Total Supply/Demand Unchanged While minor adjustments were made to the upland and ELS balance sheets this month, the totals for U.S. cotton supply and demand remain unchanged. U.S. supply this season is estimated at 21 million bales, 15 percent above 1998/99. Demand, however, is also higher this season--nearly 13 percent above a year ago--at 16.6 million bales. U.S. mill use remains estimated at 10.1 million bales in 1999/2000, 3 percent below last season. During the first 7 months of the season, reports from the Department of Commerce indicate that mills used about 5.9 million bales, compared with 6 million a year earlier. As a result, the seasonally adjusted annual rate for this period has averaged about 10.1 million bales. Exports, on the other hand, are projected to improve to 6.5 million bales by season's end, 50 percent better than a year ago. U.S. cotton is more competitive this season, particularly with the refunding of "Step 2." According to USDA's Export Sales reports, U.S. cotton shipments approached 4.2 million bales by the end of March, with an additional 2.7 million in outstanding sales. As a result, shipments for the remainder of the season need to average 136,000 bales per week to meet the current estimate. Based on these supply and demand estimates, U.S. ending stocks on July 31, 2000, are projected to total 4.4 million bales, the highest since 1992. And, although about 500,000 bales above a year ago, the increase in demand this season has provided a stocks-to-use ratio similar to 1998/99 at 26.5 percent. While the first official USDA cotton supply and demand estimates will not be released until May 12, these carryin stocks, along with expectations of a larger crop, should provide the United States with ample opportunity to supply the growing demand for cotton worldwide next season. World Consumption Expected To Increase 6.6 Percent in 1999/2000 USDA has revised its consumption estimates for China, the world's largest consumer of cotton fiber, for much of the 1990's, and the data series for world consumption has been noticeably affected. China accounts for 22-25 percent of world consumption, so the behavior of world consumption over time is slightly different than previously estimated. A sharp upward revision in China's 1999/2000 consumption, and downward revisions in China's 1997/98 and 1998/99 consumption have altered the annual percent changes in world consumption this month. In March, world consumption was estimated to have fallen 3.6 percent in 1998/99 from the year before, and a 4.4-percent annual increase was forecast for 1999/2000. In April, a 2.9-percent decline for 1998/99 is estimated, and a 6.6-percent increase is forecast for 1999/2000. This is the largest annual percentage increase since 1986/87. The decline estimated for 1998/99 was the second largest of the last 40 years. Foreign cotton production in 1999/2000 is forecast at 70 million bales, essentially unchanged from the month before and about the same as in 1998/99. Foreign cotton consumption in 1999/2000 is forecast at a record 80.1 million bales, 1.3 million bales higher than it was in March. Compared with 1998/99, foreign consumption in 1999/2000 is forecast to rise 7.9 percent. This would be the largest percentage gain since 1986/87, and the third largest of the last 40 years. The year with the next largest foreign consumption was 1989/90, at 78.1 million bales. If the former Soviet Union is excluded, the next largest year was 1996/97. Foreign cotton exports in 1999/2000 are forecast at 20.3 million bales, essentially unchanged from the month before, and up 700,000 bales from the year before. Foreign cotton imports in 1999/2000 are forecast at 27.4 million bales, 250,000 bales higher than in March, but 2.7 million bales higher than in 1998/99. Foreign cotton ending stocks in 1999/2000 are forecast at 38.2 million bales, 2.7 million bales higher than were forecast the month before, and 3.3 million bales lower than the revised estimate for 1998/99. However, China accounts for both of these changes in their entirety. Excluding China, the April 1999/2000 forecast is unchanged from the month before, and 1.7 million bales above the year before. USDA Revises China's Estimated Consumption: 1991/92-1999/2000 USDA has revised its consumption estimates for China beginning in 1991/92, with consequences for stocks in each of those years. Generally, consumption estimates have been revised downward, and stocks upward. Recently released information from China has prompted USDA to reduce its estimates of cotton's share in China's yarn production during much of the 1990's. USDA has also increased its estimates of China's non-yarn consumption of cotton, partly offsetting the impact of reduced consumption for yarn in recent years. However, USDA's estimated ending stocks for China's cotton since 1995/96 are now higher than were estimated last month. A recent report in Cotton Outlook provided a China government official's corroboration that 1998/99 ending stock levels in China exceeded USDA's previous estimate. This provided further confirmation that USDA's estimate for cotton's fiber share in China should be revised. There is still substantial uncertainty about any statistics about China, but the revised estimates incorporate the best information available regarding China's supply and demand balances, and utilize information that should be objectively updatable for future years. During 1985-1991, China's Textile Industry Yearbook published annual calendar year estimates of cotton's share of fiber used for yarn production. China's National Statistics Bureau (NSB previously the State Statistics Bureau, SSB) publishes estimates of total yarn production, and yarn use of cotton was determined from these two data series. Since 1992 the share data series has no longer been available, and USDA has estimated the share, assuming a downward trend. However, published reports from China frequently cited shares even lower than USDA's estimates in recent years, suggesting some revision might be appropriate. At the September 1999 China International Cotton Conference in Xi'an, China, an official of the Textile Industry Bureau presented a paper updating the data series on cotton's share through 1998. At USDA's February 2000 Agricultural Outlook forum, an official from the China National Cotton Exchange presented data for 1999 and an estimate for 2000. Adjusting these shares into marketing years gave estimated shares as much as 7 percentage points below USDA's previous estimates in some years, and have led USDA to revise downward its estimate of the amount of cotton utilized to produce yarn in China during the second half of the 1990's. Utilization for yarn is reduced as much as 375,000-400,000 tons in some years. Yarn production is not the only use of cotton in China, and USDA has revised upwards its estimate of non-yarn use. USDA has assumed that other uses of cotton total 450,000 tons in recent years, utilizing a fixed estimate since 1993/94. Many reports from China provide a larger estimate than 450,000 tons, and USDA has revised its estimate up to 600,000 tons starting in 1992/93 to reflect this information. Uses other than yarn production include wadding, military use, medical use, on-farm use, and processing waste. Few reports summarizing this non-yarn use range below 500,000 tons, and some range above 800,000 tons. Given the descriptions in China's press and government reports in recent years suggesting these various uses of cotton may range between 100,000 and 250,000 tons each, an estimate of 600,000 tons now seems closer to reality than 450,000 tons. China's production of non-cotton yarns, mostly chemical fiber, has grown fairly steadily since 1988/89, and has surged since 1994/95. According to USDA estimates, production of yarn from other fibers will have more than tripled since 1988/89 by the end of this marketing year. During this time, production of cotton yarns has generally fallen, dropping more than 10 percent between 1988/89 and 1998/99. However, with cotton price reform coinciding with a crackdown on chemical fiber smuggling and a revival in China's textile industry, cotton is a much more attractive fiber for the textile industry. During 1999/2000, cotton yarn production is expected to rebound substantially. Estimated 1999/2000 exports and imports are unchanged from the month before. Although China has recently initiated its long-awaited release of old-crop stocks, there appears to be sufficient domestic interest in this cotton. Also, trade volumes are regulated by policy, and there is no apparent sign of changes in export and import policy that could affect the remaining months of the marketing year. USDA will release its first official forecast of China's 2000/01 exports and imports in July 2000. Textile Imports and Exports Rebound in January 2000 January textile imports, at 991 million pounds (raw-fiber equivalent) were up 6 percent from December and 15 percent above a year earlier. Overall, imports increased in all major fibers except wool and all major end-use categories except apparel from a month ago. Cotton textile imports, at 538 million pounds, accounted for 54 percent of total imports in January and about the same level as December shipments. Asian textile-producing countries remain the most important source of cotton textile imports, accounting for 52 percent in January 2000. Textile exports totaled 256 million pounds, up 4 percent from December and increased 8 percent above January 1999. Overall, textile exports were higher for all major fibers and end-use categories of apparel and yarn, thread, and fabric. Slight declines occurred in exports of home furnishings and floor coverings in January from a month earlier. Cotton textile exports rose to above 162 million pounds, 9 percent above January and a year ago. Shipments to North American countries accounted for 91 percent of the total. Compared with a year ago, cotton exports decreased to all other regions. The textile trade deficit for all fibers during January was 635 million pounds, 20 percent above a year earlier. The deficit increased for cotton, linen, and manmade fibers. Cotton's share of the trade deficit was 59 percent in January 2000. * * * * * Copies of the 1999 Cotton and Wool Yearbook (CWS-1999) are available for purchase. For information, call 1-800-999-6770. The next Cotton and Wool Outlook (CWS-0400) will be released on May 15, 2000. ***************************************************************** Information Contacts: Leslie Meyer (U.S. Cotton and Textiles) LMEYER@ERS.USDA.GOV (202) 694-5307 Stephen MacDonald (Foreign Cotton) STEPHENM@ERS.USDA.GOV (202) 694-5305 Robert Skinner (Textiles and Wool) RSKINNER@ERS.USDA.GOV (202) 694-5313 ***************************************************************** U.S. COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1999/2000 ---------------------------- Item 1998/99 Feb Mar Apr ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Upland: Million acres Planted 13.064 14.565 14.565 14.565 Harvested 10.449 13.093 13.093 13.093 Pounds Yield/harvested acre 619 596 596 597 Million 480-lb bales Beginning stocks 3.822 3.836 3.836 3.836 Production 13.476 16.257 16.257 16.279 Total supply 1/ 17.729 20.158 20.178 20.190 Mill use 10.254 10.040 9.950 9.950 Exports 4.056 6.025 6.100 6.100 Total use 14.310 16.050 16.050 16.050 Ending stocks 3.836 4.116 4.126 4.138 Percent Stocks-to-use ratio 26.8 25.6 25.7 25.8 Extra-long staple: 1,000 acres Planted 328 290 290 290 Harvested 235 288 288 288 Pounds Yield/harvested acre 904 1,159 1,159 1,123 1,000 480-lb bales Beginning stocks 65 103 103 103 Production 442 696 696 674 Total supply 1/ 519 809 814 802 Mill use 147 160 150 150 Exports 288 375 400 400 Total use 435 535 550 550 Ending stocks 103 284 274 262 Percent Stocks-to-use ratio 23.7 53.0 49.8 47.6 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA estimates. 1/ Includes imports. WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1999/2000 ------------------------------ Item 1998/99 Jan Feb Mar ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Supply: Million 480-lb bales Beginning stocks World 43.87 41.74 41.74 45.44 Foreign 39.99 37.80 37.80 41.50 Production World 84.54 86.92 86.87 86.99 Foreign 70.62 69.97 69.92 70.04 Imports World 25.16 26.90 27.24 27.49 Foreign 24.71 26.83 27.14 27.39 Use: Mill use World 84.62 88.54 88.96 90.21 Foreign 74.22 78.34 78.86 80.11 Exports World 23.65 26.53 26.71 26.83 Foreign 19.31 20.13 20.21 20.33 Ending stocks World 45.44 40.28 39.94 42.64 Foreign 41.50 35.88 35.54 38.24 Stocks-to-use ratio Percent World 53.7 45.5 44.9 47.3 Foreign 55.9 45.8 45.1 47.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA estimates. FIBER SUPPLY ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1999 2000 1999 ------------------ Item Dec Jan Feb Feb ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb bales Ginnings 2,376 525 97 95 Imports since August 1 57.7 63.4 NA 40.5 Stocks, beginning 13,478 14,453 13,526 9,598 At mills 509 543 513 586 Public storage 11,345 12,242 11,308 8,677 CCC stocks 3,870 6,716 1,503 3,488 Manmade: Million pounds Production 842.8 869.1 891.2 799.0 Noncellulosic 813.0 840.0 861.5 776.3 Cellulosic 29.8 29.1 29.7 22.7 Total since January 1 10,219.4 869.1 1,760.3 1,628.2 1999 2000 1999 ----------------- Nov Dec Jan Jan ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Million pounds Raw fiber imports 126.8 134.6 153.1 125.8 Noncellulosic 118.2 128.1 147.7 120.3 Cellulosic 8.6 6.5 5.4 5.5 Total since January 1 1,432.5 1,567.1 153.1 125.8 Wool and Mohair: 1,000 pounds Raw wool imports, clean 2,778 2,466 4,886 6,151 48's-and-finer 1,609 1,138 3,105 4,416 Not-finer-than-46's 1,169 1,328 1,781 1,735 Total since January 1 40,608 43,074 4,886 6,151 Wool top imports 152 126 385 35 Total since January 1 1,447 1,573 385 35 Mohair imports, clean 0 0 4 0 Total since January 1 16 16 4 0 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NA = Not available. COTTON SYSTEM FIBER CONSUMPTION ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1999 2000 1999 ------------------ Item Dec Jan Feb Feb --------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb bales All consumed by mills 1/ 752 800 840 824 Total since August 1 1/ 4,212 5,012 5,852 6,039 SA annual rate 2/ 10,282 10,281 9,713 10,465 SA daily rate 2/ 39.4 39.4 37.2 40.2 Daily rate 32.7 38.1 40.0 41.2 Upland consumed by mills 1/ 742 789 827 811 Total since August 1 1/ 4,157 4,946 5,773 5,956 SA daily rate 2/ 39.0 38.9 36.6 39.6 Daily rate 32.3 37.6 39.4 40.6 Spindles in place 4,712 4,623 4,587 5,212 Active spindles 4,387 4,421 4,389 4,871 100 percent cotton 2,350 2,395 2,407 2,608 100 percent manmade 724 721 682 753 Blends 1,313 1,305 1,300 1,510 Percent Cotton's share of fibers 78.5 78.2 78.6 79.7 Manmade: 1,000 pounds Total consumed by mills 1/ 98,755 106,893 109,890 100,718 Total since August 1 1/ 549,447 656,340 766,230 742,642 Daily rate 4,294 5,090 5,233 5,036 Noncellulosic staple 4,011 4,805 4,957 4,689 Cellulosic staple 283 285 276 347 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Adjusted to calendar month. 2/ SA = seasonally adjusted. FIBER EXPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1999 2000 1999 --------------- Item Nov Dec Jan Jan ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb bales Upland exports 430 622 612 110 Total since August 1 958 1,580 2,192 2,820 Sales for next season 47 37 58 27 Total since August 1 284 321 379 198 ELS exports 24.8 32.3 46.1 46.4 Total since August 1 62.9 95.3 141.4 105.8 Sales for next season 2.0 2.2 5.0 11.9 Total since August 1 5.0 7.2 12.2 25.6 Manmade: Million pounds Raw fiber exports 92.4 82.2 78.0 71.9 Noncellulosic 87.2 78.8 73.4 69.2 Cellulosic 5.2 3.2 4.6 2.7 Total since January 1 908.1 990.1 78.0 71.9 Wool and Mohair: 1,000 pounds Raw wool exports, clean 281.6 342.9 343.8 9.1 Total since January 1 3,693.8 4,036.7 343.8 9.1 Wool top exports 181.1 81.5 434.0 400.8 Total since January 1 4,528.0 4,609.5 434.0 400.8 Mohair exports, clean 489.3 293.0 350.9 255.9 Total since January 1 5,277.5 5,570.5 350.9 255.9 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FIBER PRICES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000 1999 ---------------------------- Item Jan Feb Mar Mar ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cents per pound Domestic cotton prices: Adjusted World Price 32.74 39.11 43.07 42.64 May'2000 futures 56.35 58.76 60.99 61.39 Dec'2000 futures 59.12 61.31 62.33 61.77 Upland spot 41-34 51.92 54.29 57.67 58.17 Pima spot 03-46 80.90 82.00 83.30 86.37 Avg. price received by: Upland producers 43.10 45.90 47.80 55.10 Mill delivered: Cotton Actual 58.52 61.67 64.76 66.31 Raw fiber equivalent 65.02 68.52 71.96 73.68 Rayon staple Actual 97.00 97.00 97.00 101.00 Raw fiber equivalent 101.04 101.04 101.04 105.21 Polyester staple Actual 53.00 55.00 55.00 51.00 Raw fiber equivalent 55.21 57.29 57.29 53.13 Price ratios Percent Cotton/rayon 64.4 67.8 71.2 70.0 Cotton/polyester 117.8 119.6 125.6 138.7 Northern Europe cotton quotes: Cents per pound A Index 47.80 53.63 57.45 56.74 Memphis Territory 58.69 60.94 64.70 NQ California/Arizona 58.19 60.81 65.20 71.63 B Index 43.59 48.33 53.53 53.28 Orleans/Texas 45.06 47.69 52.80 64.00 Wool prices (clean): Dollars per pound U.S. 56's 0.45 0.45 0.49 0.65 Australian 56's 1/ 1.26 1.20 1.18 1.36 U.S. 60's 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.95 Australian 60's 1/ 1.41 1.32 1.26 1.47 U.S. 64's 0.95 0.95 1.01 1.15 Australian 64's 1/ 1.54 1.46 1.44 1.57 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- NQ = No quotes. 1/ In bond, Charleston, SC. TEXTILE TRADE ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1999 2000 1999 ---------------- Item Nov Dec Jan Jan ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Imports: 1,000 pounds 1/ Yarn, thread, and fabric 238,473 233,891 279,037 211,671 Cotton 110,560 108,124 113,866 87,787 Linen 14,872 14,266 42,624 26,678 Wool 4,185 3,660 3,855 3,114 Silk 968 951 1,058 736 Manmade 107,888 106,890 117,634 93,357 Apparel 648,131 605,600 603,476 559,039 Cotton 396,963 380,937 367,149 340,605 Linen 15,711 15,819 18,715 18,818 Wool 17,832 12,779 12,900 12,371 Silk 11,548 11,986 15,564 15,148 Manmade 206,077 184,079 189,148 172,096 House furnishings 61,603 56,180 66,173 51,081 Cotton 43,198 39,626 48,516 38,059 Linen 864 759 901 289 Wool 303 336 214 93 Silk 121 96 114 35 Manmade 17,117 15,363 16,428 12,605 Floor coverings 34,612 32,283 34,692 31,555 Cotton 4,374 3,903 4,837 5,134 Linen 4,813 4,601 5,713 4,331 Wool 10,046 10,848 10,282 9,752 Silk 740 692 715 627 Manmade 14,639 12,239 13,145 11,712 Total imports 2/ 990,348 936,041 990,922 860,142 Cotton 558,896 536,585 538,333 475,496 Linen 36,316 35,501 68,023 50,174 Wool 35,553 27,741 27,326 25,436 Silk 13,378 13,726 17,451 16,547 Manmade 349,205 322,488 339,789 292,489 Exports: 1,000 pounds 1/ Yarn, thread, and fabric 205,497 176,23 184,876 150,355 Cotton 79,334 65,786 71,997 55,722 Linen 5,660 5,017 5,317 4,419 Wool 6,334 5,170 5,304 3,392 Silk 2,306 2,220 1,806 1,540 Manmade 111,863 98,040 100,452 85,282 Apparel 146,859 124,221 135,826 143,649 Cotton 90,514 76,083 84,677 86,649 Linen 2,618 2,206 1,904 1,270 Wool 5,311 4,855 5,785 6,097 Silk 3,900 3,356 3,876 3,235 Manmade 44,516 37,721 39,584 46,398 House furnishings 8,725 7,953 5,845 6,083 Cotton 5,085 4,730 3,513 3,952 Linen 286 176 169 203 Wool 86 72 39 40 Silk 194 111 58 67 Manmade 3,087 2,864 2,066 1,821 Floor coverings 38,602 32,319 29,011 28,923 Cotton 2,887 2,312 1,981 2,404 Linen 1,930 1,408 1,332 1,483 Wool 4,216 3,364 3,365 2,352 Silk 112 85 67 82 Manmade 29,457 25,150 22,266 22,601 Total exports 2/ 400,971 340,937 355,846 329,205 Cotton 177,889 148,971 162,263 148,785 Linen 10,502 8,814 8,735 7,382 Wool 15,947 13,474 14,508 11,891 Silk 6,512 5,772 5,807 4,924 Manmade 190,120 163,906 164,533 156,224 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Includes headgear. U.S. COTTON TEXTILE IMPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1999 2000 1999 ------------------ Item Nov Dec Jan Jan ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 pounds 1/ North America 256,516 237,463 192,781 165,973 Canada 24,588 19,195 21,729 16,567 Costa Rica 10,139 9,199 7,024 6,174 Dominican Republic 21,110 22,276 9,662 10,407 El Salvador 18,189 20,865 16,538 11,931 Guatemala 12,134 12,024 10,464 8,425 Haiti 3,729 4,393 2,942 2,185 Honduras 37,070 35,916 26,198 23,473 Jamaica 4,427 3,768 2,291 3,647 Mexico 120,281 105,775 92,122 79,681 Nicaragua 4,423 3,809 3,603 3,094 South America 10,296 13,627 12,530 7,325 Argentina 13 4 4 26 Brazil 3,641 5,253 6,532 2,635 Chile 43 21 18 26 Colombia 2,913 4,077 2,132 1,935 Peru 3,260 3,824 3,365 2,225 Europe 38,176 37,716 36,894 24,278 Estonia 530 406 613 639 Germany 1,136 1,157 974 590 Italy 3,811 3,952 3,954 431 Portugal 4,874 3,508 3,077 2,676 Russia 1,757 1,894 1,790 1,518 Spain 1,440 1,215 839 708 Turkey 17,164 17,619 17,127 12,234 United Kingdom 1,410 1,418 978 947 Asia 237,693 231,572 279,514 256,332 Bahrain 1,595 1,574 2,296 1,017 Bangladesh 15,280 14,836 21,926 21,557 China 28,308 25,730 34,532 29,995 Hong Kong 28,343 26,145 30,475 28,763 India 25,935 25,422 31,113 30,873 Indonesia 11,144 10,792 11,835 14,897 Israel 3,081 3,385 3,749 3,065 Japan 1,349 1,701 1,440 1,294 Macao 4,882 4,292 4,988 6,756 Malaysia 5,150 3,997 4,748 6,576 Nepal 1,345 1,308 1,708 1,940 Oman 2,442 1,984 1,615 1,878 Pakistan 41,429 42,621 43,854 29,950 Philippines 8,567 7,597 15,218 12,030 Qatar 1,219 1,363 1,255 1,208 Singapore 2,169 1,856 2,973 2,432 South Korea 8,444 8,391 10,141 9,250 Sri Lanka 6,231 7,068 8,609 10,083 Taiwan 11,927 12,438 12,586 13,726 Thailand 14,465 13,520 15,748 12,837 U Arab Em 3,242 3,817 3,425 2,590 Oceania 1,777 1,715 2,425 2,427 Australia 1,267 1,058 1,186 1,547 Fiji 316 484 704 625 Africa 14,438 14,492 14,190 13,469 Egypt 5,898 6,480 6,168 5,671 Lesotho 1,684 1,695 1,653 1,560 Mauritius 2,054 1,873 1,482 2,079 Morocco 914 859 753 900 South Africa 1,771 1,136 1,524 1,173 Tunisia 94 77 98 85 World 2/ 558,896 536,585 538,333 475,496 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding. U.S. COTTON TEXTILE EXPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1999 2000 1999 ------------------ Country Nov Dec Jan Jan ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 pounds 1/ North America 159,566 131,372 146,781 129,639 Canada 31,049 24,693 28,739 24,851 Costa Rica 6,599 5,166 7,013 6,177 Dominican Republic 11,265 8,920 12,902 12,955 El Salvador 5,853 6,519 8,719 5,283 Guatemala 2,526 1,771 2,463 2,621 Haiti 1,703 1,598 1,733 2,022 Honduras 19,035 16,325 21,613 15,758 Jamaica 2,931 1,911 1,879 2,767 Mexico 76,940 62,428 60,187 55,796 South America 3,631 3,051 2,957 3,203 Argentina 111 211 101 137 Brazil 284 246 406 404 Chile 813 1,087 610 949 Colombia 1,347 918 903 1,076 Peru 179 78 68 82 Venezuela 691 283 650 277 Europe 6,578 6,284 5,867 7,789 Belgium 1,921 2,047 2,189 1,824 France 305 213 404 292 Germany 914 920 442 751 Ireland 137 176 55 90 Italy 582 255 246 760 Netherlands 309 498 533 695 United Kingdom 1,236 1,260 1,275 2,551 Asia 6,678 7,104 5,852 6,761 China 253 362 167 115 Hong Kong 677 618 530 718 Israel 392 811 379 690 Japan 2,768 2,895 2,936 2,954 Philippines 385 165 177 267 Saudi Arabia 512 463 357 527 Singapore 250 317 228 192 South Korea 273 322 338 323 Taiwan 211 260 179 149 U Arab Em 137 170 176 235 Oceania 633 586 447 622 Australia 460 461 346 482 New Zealand 131 70 89 50 Africa 804 574 361 617 Egypt 37 0 1 3 Ghana 41 4 26 2 Ivory Coast 132 13 5 44 Nigeria 327 143 21 199 South Africa 65 122 41 84 World 2/ 177,889 148,971 162,263 148,785 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding. ACTUAL AND PROJECTED COTTON ACREAGE ------------------------------------------------------------------- State/ Actual Actual Projected Region 1998 1999 2000 1/ 2000/1999 ------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 acres Percent Upland: Alabama 495 565 600 106 Florida 89 107 120 112 Georgia 1,370 1,470 1,500 102 N. Carolina 710 880 940 107 S. Carolina 290 330 360 109 Virginia 92 110 115 105 Southeast 3,046 3,462 3,635 105 Arkansas 920 970 1,000 103 Louisiana 535 615 690 112 Mississippi 950 1,200 1,250 104 Missouri 370 380 400 105 Tennessee 450 570 600 105 Delta 3,225 3,735 3,940 106 Kansas 17 33 36 109 Oklahoma 160 240 280 117 Texas 5,650 6,150 6,300 102 Southwest 5,827 6,423 6,616 103 Arizona 250 265 275 104 California 650 610 800 131 New Mexico 66 70 75 107 West 966 945 1,150 122 Total Upland 13,064 14,565 15,341 105 Pima: Arizona 16 10 9 95 California 200 240 175 73 New Mexico 7 8 6 80 Texas 105 33 27 82 Total Pima 328 290 217 75 Total All 13,393 14,855 15,558 105 ------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Planting intentions as indicated by reports from farmers. END_OF_FILE