COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK May 15, 2000 May 2000, ERS-CWS-0400 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board -------------------------------------------------------------------------- COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK is issued electronically 10 times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no printed copies available. (Due to a delay this report was released on 5-16-00) -------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS U.S. Cotton Supply, Demand, and Stocks Projected Higher in 2000/01 Summary of the World Outlook for 2000/01 Lower Production in China Foreign Consumption and Trade World Trade and U.S. Exports Rising U.S. 1999/2000 Estimates Revised Slightly Textile Trade Deficit Increases in 2000 Special Article--California Upland Yields Revisited U.S. Cotton Supply, Demand, and Stocks Projected Higher in 2000/01 The first official U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecast for the 2000 season projects U.S. cotton production at 19 million bales. Based on the March Prospective Plantings report, cotton planted area for the 2000 crop is expected to reach 15.6 million acres, 5 percent above 1999. Assumptions of average abandonment and yield were also made in reaching the production forecast. Harvested area of 14.4 million acres is based on the previous 10-year average abandonment, weighted by State. Likewise, the national yield forecast of 635 pounds per harvested acre is based on the 1990-99 crop yields, weighted by State. If realized, U.S. cotton production in 2000 would rise 2 million bales (12 percent) from the final 1999 production estimate. With U.S. beginning stocks currently estimated at 4.3 million bales for 2000/01 and production projected to exceed total demand, cotton stocks are expected to rise next season. In 2000/01, U.S. mill use is forecast to expand slightly to 10.2 million bales. Although consumer demand for cotton products continues to be impressive, most of this demand is being satisfied by imports. Record cotton textile and apparel imports of 15-million-bale equivalents of raw cotton are expected in 1999/2000, with further increases seen again next season. However, many of these imports will contain U.S. cotton and is expected to bolster U.S. raw cotton exports in 2000/01. In addition, a decline in foreign production along with rising consumption next season provide an initial U.S. export forecast of 8.0 million bales. Based on these early 2000/01 supply and demand estimates, U.S. cotton stocks would rise about 19 percent (800,000 bales) to 5.1 million bales by July 31, 2001, a stocks-to-use ratio of 28 percent. As of May 7, U.S. cotton planting progress was running ahead of both last season and the 5-year average. Thirty-seven percent of the U.S. crop had been planted as of May 7, compared with 31 percent a year ago and an average of 34 percent. Leading the way is California, where plantings were estimated at 98 percent complete. This is well above normal in a State where planting progress has been proven statistically significant in its yield outcome (see special article in this report). In addition to California, other States including Missouri, Mississippi, and Louisiana have planted a larger percentage than normal of their cotton crop. As of May 7, Texas was reported at only 20 percent complete as peak planting time on the High Plains gets underway. Summary of the World Outlook for 2000/01 World production is forecast to fall in 2000/01 compared with the year before, in response to: lower cotton prices during the 1999/2000 marketing year to date, competing crop prices that fell less than cotton during 1999/2000, and a return to more normal yields by several major producers. At 67 million bales, foreign cotton production is forecast about 3 million bales lower than during the year before, and its lowest since 1994. While USDA will not release official country-level estimates until July, it seems reasonable at this point to expect lower crops than the year before in China, Central Asia, Pakistan, and India. Together, these four producers account for about two-thirds of foreign production. World consumption is forecast to rise in 2000/01 compared with the year before, in response to: lower cotton prices during the 1999/2000 marketing year to date, competing fiber prices that have risen relative to cotton, and a return to more robust economic growth in a number of regions that have suffered slow or negative growth in recent years. At 82 million bales, foreign cotton consumption is forecast about 1.7 million bales higher than during the year before, and its highest ever. In percentage terms, foreign consumption is expected to be 2.2 percent higher than the year before in 2000/01, compared with an 8-percent annual increase reported in 1999/2000. World stocks are forecast to fall in 2000/01, dropping 6.0 million bales to 36.5 million bales, or from the equivalent of 47 percent of world consumption to the equivalent of 40 percent. However, as was true during 1999/2000, China could account for a disproportionate amount of the stock adjustment. Lower beginning stocks, lower production, and higher consumption of cotton by China seem likely, and while China's trade policies may be changing, it is difficult to imagine revisions to current trade policies sufficient to offset these negative factors. Foreign stocks in 2000/01 are forecast 6.8 million bales below the year before, at 31.5 million bales, the lowest since 1994/95. Lower Production in China Lower cotton production in China during 2000/01 seems likely given the large decline from 1998/99 official procurement prices that the liberalized cotton market in China underwent during 1999/2000, and given official statements that reduced cotton production is an economic goal for the government during 2000. Official policy, economic incentives, and past experience all suggest Xinjiang's area would decline little if at all, thus, a continuation in China's upward trend in its national average cotton yield seems plausible. However, production could fall as planted area outside of Xinjiang drops. Since 1994, China's non-Xinjiang cotton area has declined by more than 2 million hectares. To illustrate the magnitude of this decline, if these 2 million hectares represented a cotton-producing country, that country would have the fifth largest area of any in the world. China's 1999/2000 area was about 700,000 hectares smaller than during the year before, and at 3.75 million hectares was the smallest area since 1962. When one considers that in 1962 Xinjiang's area was probably negligible, then China's 1999 non-Xinjiang area of about 2.75 million hectares was probably the lowest since sometime in the 1950's. Another decline is widely expected in 2000/01, but less than the 20 percent drop seen in 1999. Three reasons for expecting a smaller rather than larger decline in the next marketing year are: 1) a rebound in prices within China in recent months; 2) growing use of genetically modified cotton in Eastern and Central regions with associated costs savings; and 3) the possibility that producers already incorporated much of the 1999 price changes into their expectations when undertaking 1999 planting, limiting the impact of lagged prices on the 2000 crop. The last point deserves further elaboration. In the past, China's cotton production response to price changes has been larger with one year's lag than during the current year. During the 1990's, this has reversed, and the correlation with current year prices has become stronger than the correlation with lagged prices. Obviously, production decisions depend on more than the published price of cotton, but this correlation suggests price expectations in China may be more forward looking than in the past. If farmers in 1999/2000 were adjusting very rapidly to price signals, if they were forming expectations rationally, then they knew prices would drop substantially in 1999/2000 and responded accordingly. Now, industry reports from China suggest farmers may expect prices to rise or stay at recently elevated levels. However, producers in China may still be foreseeing prices during 2000/01 below those they foresaw at planting for 1999/2000, and could plant less this year. Alternatively, if farmers in 1999/2000 were responding to government edicts, then the official forecast/goal of a 3.2-million-ton crop suggests official government efforts would still be to discourage area. Other Producers Central Asian production jumped by more than 800,000 bales from the year before in 1999/2000, largely due to a 14-percent jump in Uzbekistan's yields. Turkmenistan's government reported a surge in cotton production as well, but those reports to date have been widely discounted. Assuming that Turkmenistan's crop again remains nearer to its 1998 level than to the larger figures published by the government, then a return of Uzbekistan's yields to something closer to an average of recent years could bring Central Asian cotton production down a few 100,000 bales from its strong 1999/2000 performance. Pakistan also saw its yield and production surge from the year before in 1999/2000, but price and weather developments during the last year suggest that a lower crop can be expected from that country in 2000/01. Prices fell substantially, reportedly discouraging some producers from considering the crop in 2000/01. In addition, Pakistan's yield soared 26 percent from the year before in 1999/2000, reaching a level only bested by the unusually high peaks of the early 1990's pre-leaf curl virus period, and a return to more average yields is therefore likely. Also, a period of reduced precipitation has reportedly reduced supplies of water for irrigation. With respect to India, slightly lower production seems likely, as cotton prices have generally been below year-ago levels for 2 years running, and farmers are likely to respond by planting less cotton. India's crop in 1999/2000 was bolstered by increased yields in the Punjab and Haryana, and more normal conditions would suggest that that region might produce somewhat less in 2000/01. Much of the rest of India depends on the performance of the monsoon, which has generally performed favorably in recent years, although Gujurat in 1999/2000 was an exception. Foreign Consumption and Trade Cotton consumption is far more dispersed than production, and temporary consumption shortfalls or excesses due to local conditions can induce offsetting declines elsewhere in the world through competition in world textile trade. Thus, there is little point at this time of the year in disaggregating the foreign consumption forecast any further. However, the world's largest consumer, China, seems more likely to raise than lower consumption, given the pronounced rebound in textile production witnessed recently. The potential shortfall in China's production relative to consumption merits discussion because of its potentially significant impact on world trade. China's availability of domestic cotton during 2000/01 will be substantially lower than the year before due to reduced beginning stocks. Beginning stocks for China in 2000/01 are forecast about 5 million bales below the year before, and the likelihood of lower production suggests an even greater decline in total supply. China has been a net exporter for the last 2 years, 1998/99 and 1999/2000, but was a substantial net importer during the 4 preceding years. An analysis of stocks/use ratios is not indicative of either a strong net import or net export position for China in 2000/01. Continuation of exports at the current season's level would imply a stocks/use ratio for China of 42 percent, startlingly below the 71 percent USDA estimates for 1999/2000. However, China's average stock/use since 1975 has been 46 percent and virtually no significant Northern Hemisphere cotton-producing country holds stocks equivalent to 50 percent or more of use. An assumption of balanced net trade for China's cotton in 2000/01, combined with a 500,000-bale decline in production and a 500,000-bale increase in consumption, would bring China's stock/use ratio to just below 50 percent. While one might object that any analysis of China's stocks should include a discount for "phantom" stocks, at least some published figures from China are consistent with an even higher stock level than USDA's. And while some of the stocks consumed under this scenario would be older and lower quality than those ordinarily acceptable in developed countries, China does have a more heterogeneous textile industry with greater opportunities to accommodate lower quality cotton with increased use of labor. World Trade and U.S. Exports Rising Since neither a significant reduction nor increase in China's net trade position seems to be necessitated solely by changes in China's supplies, world trade in cotton is likely to maintain its current relationship with world consumption during 2000/01. During the last 3 years, world imports have averaged 30 percent of world consumption. In recent years this share has only been exceeded when China is a major importer, which is difficult to foresee at this point. This would suggest imports of 28 million bales and exports of 27.7 million. With world trade expected to be about 1 million bales higher in 2000/01 than in 1999/2000, higher U.S. exports are likely. The outlook for higher U.S. exports area is also supported by an expected increase in U.S. supplies and reduced prospects for competition from China. Other major exporters are likely to increase exports only slightly as reduced production largely offsets the increased carryin from the 1999 crop, keeping available supplies about unchanged. At 8 million bales U.S. exports are expected to be 1.4 million bales above the year before and account for 29 percent of world trade, the highest since 1994. U.S. 1999/2000 Estimates Revised Slightly Small revisions were made this month to USDA's supply and demand estimates for 1999/2000. First, the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) finalized 1999 U.S. cotton production at 16.97 million bales, up marginally from last month's estimate. For details of the State and regional data, see the table in this report. As a result, total cotton supplies this season are estimated at 21 million bales, which includes an estimated 100,000 bales of imported raw cotton. On the demand side, the export forecast was raised to 6.6 million bales, 100,000 above April's estimate. As of early May, shipment data reported in Export Sales indicate that nearly 5.2 million bales of U.S. cotton had already been exported, with recent weekly shipments near 200,000 bales. Although normal seasonal patterns would imply a slower shipment pace during the next 3 months, exports need only average about 115,000 bales per week through the end of the season, well within reasonable expectations, as 2 million bales of commitments remain to be shipped. With the revised export forecast and no adjustment made to U.S. mill use this month, total demand improved to 16.7 million bales. As a result, 1999/2000 ending stocks are currently estimated at 4.3 million bales, about 300,000 above beginning levels. Textile Trade Deficit Increases in 2000 February textile exports, at 400 million pounds (raw-fiber equivalent), increased 12 percent from January and were 13 percent above February 1999. Overall, textile exports were higher for all major fibers and all end-use categories. Cotton textile imports rose to 180 million pounds, 11 percent above January and 10 percent above a year ago. Shipments to North American countries accounted for 89 percent of the total. Mexico, Canada, Honduras, and the Dominican Republic remained the largest buyers of U.S. cotton textiles and apparel. Compared with a year earlier, cotton textile exports increased to North America, South America, and Asia, while shipments decreased to Europe, Oceania, and Africa. Textile imports totaled 1.03 billion pounds, up 4 percent from January and 15 percent above February 1999. Overall, increases in cotton and manmade fiber textile imports more than offset slight declines in wool, linen, and silk textiles. Also, a large increase in apparel imports more than offset lower shipments of all other end-use categories. Cotton imports, at 590 million pounds, accounted for 57 percent of total imports in February and were 10 percent above January. In addition, textile imports during the first 2 months of 2000 were 15 percent above the corresponding period of 1999, and cotton textile imports were up 14 percent. Asian textile-producing countries remain the most important source of cotton textile imports, accounting for 47 percent in February 2000. However, North America continues to increase market share of cotton textiles, accounting for 42 percent of all cotton shipments, compared with 36 percent in January. For all fibers, the textile trade deficit during January and February totaled 1.3 billion pounds, 18 percent above a year earlier. The cumulative cotton trade deficit was 17 percent higher than the first 2 months of 1999. However, cotton's share of the trade deficit declined from 63 percent to 61 percent in 2000 compared with a year earlier. Special Article: California Upland Yields Revisited by Leslie Meyer In the May 1998 and 1999 issues of this report, California's planting progress as of early May was analyzed and discussed in the context of its effect on upland cotton yields for the ensuing season. To accomplish this, a double log function was estimated with ordinary least squares (OLS) regression using data from the 1987-97 crops. Additional background and a detailed discussion of the equation are found in the previous issues (CWS-0298 and CWS-0499). A summary of the results follows. In 1998, California experienced delays in planting due to a wet spring. As of May 10, 1998, only 60 percent of the California cotton crop had been planted. As a result, the regression model discussed in the previous issues predicted a yield well below the normal 1,200-pound average. As reported in May 1998, chances were two out of three that California's upland yield would fall between 865 and 997 pounds per harvested acre. The final 1998 upland yield was 887 pounds. In 1999, California experienced a more "normal" planting season. As of May 9, 1999, 90 percent of the cotton crop had been planted. Implications on the upland yield were once again analyzed. As reported last May, a range of yields--between 1,099 and 1,267 pounds per harvested acre--was determined by the estimated model for California based on the planting progress. Once again, the yield fell within this range, as the final 1999 California upland yield reported this month was 1,254 pounds. Using the final 1999 yield reported by NASS, the equation was updated for 2000. The estimated equation is LN(Y) = 7.1453 + 0.6446 LN(X), where LN(Y) is the natural log of California yields and LN(X) is the natural log of the percentage of the cotton crop planted nearest to May 10 of the respective years. The equation accounts for 76 percent of the variation in California upland yields during 1987-99, with a standard error of the estimate equal to 0.0656. Both measurements are improved from the previous model's statistics. Based on the results of the OLS regression and the excellent planting progress (98 percent) made by May 7, 2000, what implications can be made this season? Despite drought conditions across much of the Cotton Belt, early progress in California--with complete irrigation--has been exceptional and tends to benefit yields there. Based on the above model, an early projection of 1,252 pounds per harvested acre is estimated for California's upland yield for 2000. A range around this point estimate suggests that chances are two out of three that the final yield will fall between 1,172 and 1,337 pounds. However, based on past history when California's planting progress is nearly complete by May 10, yields have been near the upper end of the range or have exceeded the upper bound estimate. As a result, if California experiences "normal" weather for the remainder of the growing season, the 2000 upland yield will likely exceed 1,250 pounds and may approach the 1992 record of 1,359 pounds per harvested acre. * * * * * The next Cotton and Wool Outlook (CWS-0500) will be released on June 12, 2000. ***************************************************************** Information Contacts: Leslie Meyer (U.S. Cotton and Textiles) LMEYER@ERS.USDA.GOV (202) 694-5307 Stephen MacDonald (Foreign Cotton) STEPHENM@ERS.USDA.GOV (202) 694-5305 Robert Skinner (Textiles and Wool) RSKINNER@ERS.USDA.GOV (202) 694-5313 ****************************************************************************** U.S. COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1999/2000 ---------------------------- Item 1998/99 Mar Apr May ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Upland: Million acres Planted 13.064 14.565 14.565 14.584 Harvested 10.449 13.093 13.093 13.138 Pounds Yield/harvested acre 619 596 597 595 Million 480-lb bales Beginning stocks 3.822 3.836 3.836 3.836 Production 13.476 16.257 16.279 16.294 Total supply 1/ 17.729 20.178 20.190 20.205 Mill use 10.254 9.950 9.950 9.955 Exports 4.056 6.100 6.100 6.180 Total use 14.310 16.050 16.050 16.135 Ending stocks 3.836 4.126 4.138 4.053 Percent Stocks-to-use ratio 26.8 25.7 25.8 25.1 Extra-long staple: 1,000 acres Planted 328 290 290 290 Harvested 235 288 288 287 Pounds Yield/harvested acre 904 1,159 1,123 1,128 1,000 480-lb bales Beginning stocks 65 103 103 103 Production 442 696 674 674 Total supply 1/ 519 814 802 802 Mill use 147 150 150 145 Exports 288 400 400 420 Total use 435 550 550 565 Ending stocks 103 274 262 247 Percent Stocks-to-use ratio 23.7 49.8 47.6 43.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA estimates. 1/ Includes imports. WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1999/2000 ------------------------------ Item 1998/99 Mar Apr May ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Supply: Million 480-lb bales Beginning stocks World 43.87 41.74 45.44 45.43 Foreign 39.99 37.80 41.50 41.49 Production World 84.53 86.87 86.99 87.28 Foreign 70.61 69.92 70.04 70.31 Imports World 25.16 27.24 27.49 27.52 Foreign 24.71 27.14 27.39 27.42 Use: Mill use World 84.62 88.96 90.21 90.53 Foreign 74.22 78.86 80.11 80.43 Exports World 23.65 26.71 26.83 26.89 Foreign 19.31 20.21 20.33 20.29 Ending stocks World 45.43 39.94 42.64 42.55 Foreign 41.49 35.54 38.24 38.25 Stocks-to-use ratio Percent World 53.7 44.9 47.3 47.0 Foreign 55.9 45.1 47.7 47.6 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA estimates. FIBER SUPPLY ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000 1999 ---------------------------- Item Jan Feb Mar Mar ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb bales Ginnings 525 97 0 0 Imports since August 1 63.4 72.3 NA 84.1 Stocks, beginning 14,453 13,526 12,057 8,699 At mills 543 513 501 605 Public storage 12,242 11,308 9,726 7,500 CCC stocks 6,716 1,503 836 1,522 Manmade: Million pounds Production 868.7 890.2 934.0 867.7 Noncellulosic 840.0 861.5 901.4 842.9 Cellulosic 28.7 28.7 32.6 24.8 Total since January 1 869.1 1,759.3 2,693.3 2,495.9 1999 2000 1999 ---------------- Dec Jan Feb Feb ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Million pounds Raw fiber imports 134.6 153.1 135.7 121.4 Noncellulosic 128.1 147.7 130.6 116.2 Cellulosic 6.5 5.4 5.1 5.2 Total since January 1 1,567.1 153.1 288.8 247.2 Wool and Mohair: 1,000 pounds Raw wool imports, clean 2,466 4,886 3,805 3,553 48's-and-finer 1,138 3,105 1,879 1,649 Not-finer-than-46's 1,328 1,781 1,927 1,905 Total since January 1 43,074 4,886 8,692 9,704 Wool top imports 126 385 303 28 Total since January 1 1,573 385 688 63 Mohair imports, clean 0 4 0 0 Total since January 1 16 4 4 0 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NA = Not available. COTTON SYSTEM FIBER CONSUMPTION ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000 1999 -------------------------- Item Jan Feb Mar Mar --------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb bales All consumed by mills 1/ 800 838 926 940 Total since August 1 1/ 5,012 5,850 6,776 6,979 SA annual rate 2/ 9,935 10,117 10,220 10,391 SA daily rate 2/ 38.1 38.8 39.2 40.0 Daily rate 38.1 39.9 40.3 40.9 Upland consumed by mills 1/ 789 825 913 926 Total since August 1 1/ 4,946 5,771 6,684 6,883 SA daily rate 2/ 37.6 38.2 38.6 39.4 Daily rate 37.6 39.3 39.7 40.3 Spindles in place 4,623 4,586 4,568 5,223 Active spindles 4,421 4,401 4,383 4,784 100 percent cotton 2,395 2,407 2,381 2,519 100 percent manmade 721 682 689 766 Blends 1,305 1,312 1,313 1,499 Percent Cotton's share of fibers 78.2 78.4 77.8 79.5 Manmade: 1,000 pounds Total consumed by mills 1/ 106,893 110,755 126,607 116,618 Total since August 1 1/ 656,340 767,095 893,702 859,260 Daily rate 5,090 5,274 5,505 5,070 Noncellulosic staple 4,805 4,998 5,185 4,722 Cellulosic staple 285 276 320 348 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Adjusted to calendar month. 2/ SA = seasonally adjusted. FIBER EXPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1999 2000 1999 ---------------- Item Dec Jan Feb Feb ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb bales Upland exports 622 612 694 148 Total since August 1 1,580 2,192 2,886 2,968 Sales for next season 37 58 66 50 Total since August 1 321 379 445 247 ELS exports 32.3 46.1 42.2 33.7 Total since August 1 95.3 141.4 183.7 139.5 Sales for next season 2.2 5.0 8.2 3.4 Total since August 1 7.2 12.2 20.4 29.0 Manmade: Million pounds Raw fiber exports 82.2 78.0 100.6 72.7 Noncellulosic 78.8 73.4 95.6 70.0 Cellulosic 3.2 4.6 5.0 2.7 Total since January 1 990.1 78.0 178.6 144.6 Wool and Mohair: 1,000 pounds Raw wool exports, clean 342.9 343.8 214.3 124.3 Total since January 1 4,036.7 343.8 558.1 133.4 Wool top exports 81.5 434.0 277.9 356.7 Total since January 1 4,609.5 434.0 711.9 757.5 Mohair exports, clean 293.0 350.9 0 166.3 Total since January 1 5,570.5 350.9 350.9 422.2 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FIBER PRICES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000 1999 ---------------------------- Item Feb Mar Apr Apr ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cents per pound Domestic cotton prices: Adjusted World Price 39.11 43.07 44.83 43.97 May'2000 futures 58.76 60.99 56.47 61.29 Dec'2000 futures 61.31 62.33 59.92 61.58 Upland spot 41-34 54.29 57.67 53.76 57.01 Pima spot 03-46 82.00 83.30 84.79 84.57 Avg. price received by: Upland producers 45.90 47.90 45.00 55.60 Mill delivered: Cotton Actual 61.67 64.76 61.04 64.69 Raw fiber equivalent 68.52 71.96 67.82 71.88 Rayon staple Actual 97.00 97.00 97.00 101.00 Raw fiber equivalent 101.04 101.04 101.04 105.21 Polyester staple Actual 55.00 55.00 55.00 50.00 Raw fiber equivalent 57.29 57.29 57.29 52.08 Price ratios Percent Cotton/rayon 67.8 71.2 67.1 68.3 Cotton/polyester 119.6 125.6 118.4 138.0 Northern Europe cotton quotes: Cents per pound A Index 53.63 57.45 58.90 57.86 Memphis Territory 60.94 64.70 64.31 NQ California/Arizona 60.81 65.20 64.19 68.40 B Index 48.33 53.53 53.35 NQ Orleans/Texas 47.69 52.80 52.81 NQ Wool prices (clean): Dollars per pound U.S. 56's 0.45 0.49 0.52 0.65 Australian 56's 1/ 1.20 1.18 1.29 1.36 U.S. 60's 0.70 0.70 0.77 0.87 Australian 60's 1/ 1.32 1.26 1.41 1.44 U.S. 64's 0.95 1.01 1.10 1.10 Australian 64's 1/ 1.46 1.44 1.58 1.56 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- NQ = No quotes. 1/ In bond, Charleston, SC. TEXTILE TRADE ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1999 2000 1999 ----------------- Item Dec Jan Feb Feb ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Imports: 1,000 pounds 1/ Yarn, thread, and fabric 233,891 279,037 251,370 210,837 Cotton 108,124 113,866 112,014 87,858 Linen 14,266 42,624 20,906 22,587 Wool 3,660 3,855 4,212 3,404 Silk 951 1,058 889 656 Manmade 106,890 117,634 113,349 96,332 Apparel 605,600 603,476 670,410 591,117 Cotton 380,937 367,149 420,529 372,491 Linen 15,819 18,715 18,562 16,150 Wool 12,779 12,900 13,088 12,691 Silk 11,986 15,564 14,506 13,400 Manmade 184,079 189,148 203,725 176,385 House furnishings 56,180 66,173 65,918 54,454 Cotton 39,626 48,516 48,026 40,911 Linen 759 901 1,017 184 Wool 336 214 257 82 Silk 96 114 140 23 Manmade 15,363 16,428 16,478 13,254 Floor coverings 32,283 34,692 30,657 29,166 Cotton 3,903 4,837 4,120 4,528 Linen 4,601 5,713 4,639 3,832 Wool 10,848 10,282 8,837 7,074 Silk 692 715 728 385 Manmade 12,239 13,145 12,333 13,347 Total imports 2/ 936,041 990,922 1,026,571 892,425 Cotton 536,585 538,333 589,642 509,873 Linen 35,501 68,023 45,176 42,907 Wool 27,741 27,326 26,446 23,318 Silk 13,726 17,451 16,264 14,466 Manmade 322,488 339,789 349,043 301,861 Exports: 1,000 pounds 1/ Yarn, thread, and fabric 176,233 184,876 205,714 164,714 Cotton 65,786 71,997 78,930 63,831 Linen 5,017 5,317 6,474 5,419 Wool 5,170 5,304 5,241 4,709 Silk 2,220 1,806 2,210 1,640 Manmade 98,040 100,452 112,859 89,115 Apparel 124,221 135,826 151,188 153,768 Cotton 76,083 84,677 94,362 93,470 Linen 2,206 1,904 1,910 1,658 Wool 4,855 5,785 6,900 6,823 Silk 3,356 3,876 4,204 3,873 Manmade 37,721 39,584 43,812 47,944 House furnishings 7,953 5,845 6,655 6,264 Cotton 4,730 3,513 4,070 3,858 Linen 176 169 236 196 Wool 72 39 51 54 Silk 111 58 88 137 Manmade 2,864 2,066 2,210 2,019 Floor coverings 32,319 29,011 35,924 29,805 Cotton 2,312 1,981 2,685 2,410 Linen 1,408 1,332 1,526 1,584 Wool 3,364 3,365 3,924 2,849 Silk 85 67 55 91 Manmade 25,150 22,266 27,734 22,871 Total exports 2/ 340,937 355,846 399,775 354,826 Cotton 148,971 162,263 180,129 163,643 Linen 8,814 8,735 10,155 8,866 Wool 13,474 14,508 16,130 14,446 Silk 5,772 5,807 6,557 5,741 Manmade 163,906 164,533 186,805 162,130 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Includes headgear. U.S. COTTON TEXTILE IMPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1999 2000 1999 ------------------ Item Dec Jan Feb Feb ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 pounds 1/ North America 237,463 192,781 246,586 213,528 Canada 19,195 21,729 22,655 18,828 Costa Rica 9,199 7,024 9,002 9,287 Dominican Republic 22,276 9,662 21,803 20,380 El Salvador 20,865 16,538 21,659 15,193 Guatemala 12,024 10,464 12,279 10,695 Haiti 4,393 2,942 4,121 3,365 Honduras 35,916 26,198 38,777 30,744 Jamaica 3,768 2,291 3,230 4,630 Mexico 105,775 92,122 108,618 96,356 Nicaragua 3,809 3,603 4,135 3,701 South America 13,627 12,530 12,661 7,129 Argentina 4 4 25 28 Brazil 5,253 6,532 5,539 1,512 Chile 21 18 45 7 Colombia 4,077 2,132 3,035 2,873 Peru 3,824 3,365 3,506 2,147 Europe 37,716 36,894 36,727 27,054 Estonia 406 613 241 446 Germany 1,157 974 1,229 700 Italy 3,952 3,954 4,249 3,302 Portugal 3,508 3,077 2,710 2,337 Russia 1,894 1,790 1,895 648 Spain 1,215 839 1,126 983 Turkey 17,619 17,127 17,577 13,483 United Kingdom 1,418 978 1,416 1,005 Asia 231,572 279,514 276,651 247,541 Bahrain 1,574 2,296 2,180 1,188 Bangladesh 14,836 21,926 19,895 17,102 China 25,730 34,532 36,899 32,477 Hong Kong 26,145 30,475 30,767 28,700 India 25,422 31,113 29,136 32,072 Indonesia 10,792 11,835 11,355 13,868 Israel 3,385 3,749 2,549 2,998 Japan 1,701 1,440 1,412 1,224 Macao 4,292 4,988 5,343 6,483 Malaysia 3,997 4,748 5,293 5,117 Nepal 1,308 1,708 2,742 2,178 Oman 1,984 1,615 1,526 1,789 Pakistan 42,621 43,854 45,656 31,209 Philippines 7,597 15,218 11,155 11,178 Qatar 1,363 1,255 1,415 1,765 Singapore 1,856 2,973 3,338 2,434 South Korea 8,391 10,141 9,420 8,575 Sri Lanka 7,068 8,609 8,457 9,144 Taiwan 12,438 12,586 11,470 12,141 Thailand 13,520 15,748 14,209 10,645 U Arab Em 3,817 3,425 4,773 2,552 Oceania 1,715 2,425 2,296 1,593 Australia 1,058 1,186 1,021 794 Fiji 484 704 957 584 Africa 14,492 14,190 14,720 13,029 Egypt 6,480 6,168 6,641 6,660 Lesotho 1,695 1,653 2,087 1,288 Mauritius 1,873 1,482 1,902 1,647 Morocco 859 753 939 919 South Africa 1,136 1,524 864 529 Tunisia 77 98 165 82 World 2/ 536,585 538,333 589,642 509,873 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding. U.S. COTTON TEXTILE EXPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1999 2000 1999 ------------------ Country Dec Jan Feb Feb ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 pounds 1/ North America 131,372 146,781 160,075 144,006 Canada 24,693 28,739 26,789 25,924 Costa Rica 5,166 7,013 6,977 6,286 Dominican Republic 8,920 12,902 16,909 14,143 El Salvador 6,519 8,719 9,095 6,194 Guatemala 1,771 2,463 3,178 2,703 Haiti 1,598 1,733 2,324 1,576 Honduras 16,325 21,613 23,254 19,448 Jamaica 1,911 1,879 2,004 3,784 Mexico 62,428 60,187 67,701 62,414 South America 3,051 2,957 3,835 2,963 Argentina 211 101 259 188 Brazil 246 406 538 379 Chile 1,087 610 503 321 Colombia 918 903 821 939 Peru 78 68 510 79 Venezuela 283 650 956 703 Europe 6,284 5,867 6,650 7,997 Belgium 2,047 2,189 1,795 2,513 France 213 404 376 315 Germany 920 442 655 727 Ireland 176 55 84 91 Italy 255 246 484 235 Netherlands 498 533 544 552 United Kingdom 1,260 1,275 1,676 2,161 Asia 7,104 5,852 8,602 7,052 China 362 167 300 230 Hong Kong 618 530 759 798 Israel 811 379 528 514 Japan 2,895 2,936 3,516 3,397 Philippines 165 177 197 241 Saudi Arabia 463 357 470 386 Singapore 317 228 239 185 South Korea 322 338 501 273 Taiwan 260 179 435 208 U Arab Em 170 176 183 193 Oceania 586 447 571 680 Australia 461 346 472 476 New Zealand 70 89 74 105 Africa 574 361 396 945 Egypt 0 1 19 18 Ghana 4 26 18 19 Ivory Coast 13 5 0 90 Nigeria 143 21 76 185 South Africa 122 41 100 286 World 2/ 148,971 162,263 180,129 163,643 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding. FINAL 1999 U.S. COTTON ACREAGE, YIELD, AND PRODUCTION ------------------------------------------------------------------- State/ Region Planted Harvested Yield Production ------------------------------------------------------------------- Lbs./ 1,000 1,000 acres harvested acre bales Upland: Alabama 565 561 535 625 Florida 107 106 516 114 Georgia 1,470 1,300 579 1,567 N. Carolina 880 825 475 816 S. Carolina 330 315 428 281 Virginia 110 108 635 143 Southeast 3,462 3,215 529 3,546 Arkansas 970 960 710 1,420 Louisiana 615 610 709 901 Mississippi 1,200 1,180 704 1,731 Missouri 380 377 611 480 Tennessee 570 565 505 595 Delta 3,735 3,692 667 5,127 Kansas 33 28 375 22 Oklahoma 240 150 461 144 Texas 6,150 5,100 475 5,050 Southwest 6,423 5,278 474 5,216 Arizona 270 269 879 716 California 610 605 1,210 1,580 New Mexico 84 79 734 109 West 964 953 1,211 2,405 Total Upland 14,584 13,138 595 16,294 Pima: Arizona 9 9 879 16 California 240 239 1,210 603 New Mexico 8 7 734 11 Texas 33 32 669 45 Total Pima 290 287 1,127 674 Total All 14,874 13,425 607 16,968 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA's May 2000 Crop Production report. END_OF_FILE