COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK July 13, 2000 July 2000, ERS-CWS-0600 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board -------------------------------------------------------------------------- COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK is issued electronically 10 times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no printed copies available. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS U.S. Cotton Area Unchanged from March Indications Higher U.S. Production and Demand Projected World Production, Consumption, and Trade Higher in 2000/01; Stocks Lower Output Largely Unchanged in Franc-Zone, China, and India Consumption Rising More Slowly in 2000/01 China's Mill-Use Unchanged, India's and Brazil's Higher Cotton Trade and U.S. Share Grow World Stocks To Decline for the First Time Since 1993 U.S. Textile Trade Declines from a Month Earlier U.S. Cotton Area Unchanged from March Indications According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) June Acreage report, U.S. producers have planted nearly 15.6 million acres of cotton this season. The revised cotton area is nearly identical to the March Prospective Plantings report but nearly 700,000 acres (5 percent) above 1999. The increase from last season is attributable to cotton's favorable relative net returns over competing crops and the improvement in planting conditions this season in many parts of the Cottonbelt. Upland cotton acreage rose 5 percent from last season to nearly 15.4 million acres, with each region reporting area gains. Compared with 1999, the Southwest rose nearly 200,000 acres (3 percent) to 6.6 million, the highest since 1995. The Delta expanded 325,000 acres (9 percent) to nearly 4.1 million. Meanwhile, the Southeast rose less than 100,000 acres (2 percent) to 3.5 million, while the largest percentage gain (18 percent) came in the West, where a 175,000-acre increase placed 2000 area at 1.1 million. In contrast, the Acreage report indicated that extra-long staple (ELS) area declined significantly from a year ago to 202,000 acres. Reductions were evident in all ELS-producing States, but most of the change occurred in California--down 70,000 acres. Despite some dry conditions in a number of States at planting time, much-needed rain has fallen and has provided improved conditions. However, additional rain will still be needed to "make" the crop. Overall, U.S. crop conditions have remained favorable, though. As of July 9th, 60 percent of the cotton acreage was in "good" or "excellent" condition, equal to that in 1999. Similarly, only 12 percent of the U.S. crop was considered "poor" or "very poor" this season, compared with last season's 14 percent. While conditions this season are nearly identical to those posted a year ago, the development of the crop is ahead of last season. As of July 9th, 83 percent of the crop was squaring, compared with 74 percent in 1999 and a 5-year average of 76 percent. In addition, 27 percent of the cotton area was setting bolls--equal to the 5-year average but above last season's 24 percent. Higher U.S. Production and Demand Projected The 2000 U.S. cotton production forecast was raised 300,000 bales this month to 19.3 million due to an expected lower abandonment--especially in Texas--and based on favorable crop conditions to date. If realized, U.S. cotton production would rise 14 percent from 1999 and become the second largest on record behind only the 1994 season. The increase from last season is the result of not only larger area, but also an anticipated improvement in yield. In 2000, abandonment is forecast at only 6 percent, resulting in harvested area of 14.6 million acres; last season, abandonment approached 10 percent. Based on the area and production estimates, the national average yield is forecast at 635 pounds per harvested acre, 6 pounds above the 5-year average. On August 11th, the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) will provide its initial survey projections of cotton area to be harvested, yield, and production. With higher U.S. production projected and carryin stocks estimated at 4.1 million bales, total 2000/01 cotton supplies are expected to rise to nearly 23.5 million bales. For only the second time in more than three decades, U.S. cotton supplies are likely to exceed 23 million bales. However, total demand is also expected to rise in 2000/01, although not likely as fast as production. Mill use is forecast at 10.2 million bales, slightly above the current season's estimate. Despite the sustained growth in cotton textile imports, higher U.S. mill use is currently forecast as a result of indications for a possible improvement in denim mill demand and the positive effects expected to be associated with the enactment of the "United States-Caribbean Basin Trade Partnership Act." In general, the act--which becomes effective October 1st--provides for reduced tariff rates for specific apparel products and quantities imported from Caribbean Basin Initiative (CBI) countries if the products are made from yarn or fabric wholly formed in the United States. Raw cotton exports, on the other hand, are projected to improve further to 8.2 million bales, 20 percent higher than the current season and the highest since 1994/95. Larger U.S. production, coupled with a lower total foreign output projection, and increased world demand for cotton is expected to provide the stimulus needed to reach this level of U.S. export shipments. Despite the anticipated improvement in U.S. cotton demand for the upcoming season, these early projections indicate ending stocks will rise during the 2000/01 season and are forecast to reach 5 million bales by July 31, 2001, a stocks-to-use ratio of 27 percent. While ending stocks would expand by nearly a million bales from 1999/2000 to their highest since 1988/89, the stocks-to-use ratio would be the highest since 1992. While changes were made this month to the U.S. cotton supply and demand estimates for 2000/01, no changes were made to the current season as it winds down at the end of this month. Final revisions will be made over the course of the next several months as data for the season become available. World Production, Consumption, and Trade Higher in 2000/01; Stocks Lower World production in 2000/01 is forecast at 87.4 million bales, marginally above the year before. World consumption is forecast at 92.3 million bales, up 1.5 million bales. World trade is forecast at 28.1 million bales, 1.1 million bales higher than the year before. Lower global ending stocks are foreseen, down 4.7 million bales from the year before at 36.1 million bales. For the second year in a row, production in the United States is forecast to increase by more than any other country. U.S. production in 2000/01 is expected to be 2.3 million bales higher than the year before, a far larger increase than Argentina's-the next largest-where output could increase by 275,000 bales given a return to normal planting weather in 2000/01. Higher output is also forecast for Brazil (200,000 bales), Paraguay (133,000 bales), and Turkmenistan (100,000 bales). U.S. production is expected to account for 22 percent of world cotton output in 2000/01, slightly above the 1990's average share of 20 percent. The largest production decline is foreseen in Pakistan, where more normal yields during 2000/01 could reduce the crop by more than 1 million bales. During 1999/2000, Pakistan recorded the second largest annual crop increase in the world-2.1 million bales- as yields rose by about one-third. Similarly, Uzbekistan's crop shot up 700,000 bales during 1999/2000, and is expected to fall by 200,000 bales during 2000/01 due to lower planted area. Reduced precipitation throughout a substantial portion of Central and South Asia has resulted in some difficulties with irrigation in Pakistan and Uzbekistan, but to date these seem to have been overcome and are not expected to be critical. Elsewhere, reduced area is also accounting for much of the expected output declines in Mexico, Egypt, Turkey, Spain, and Greece. These expected year-to-year changes range between 369,000 and 120,000 bales. Output Largely Unchanged in Franc-Zone, China, and India Little change is expected in production of Africa's Franc-Zone, as slightly lower area is offset by improving yields. Production in the Franc-Zone is expected to return to the average level of the preceding 3 years--a 135,000-bale increase from 1999/2000 output, to 4.1 million bales-as yields recover from the 14-percent dip caused by weather difficulties over the last 2 years. Similarly, little change is expected in China, where prices have stabilized following a precipitous drop from the year before during 1999/2000. China's production is forecast to reach 17.5 million bales, with area and output essentially unchanged from their 1999/2000 lows. During 1999/2000, China's cotton area fell 16 percent from the year before, reaching its lowest reported level since 1962. The end of guaranteed procurement prices in China during 1999/2000 led to a large decline in prices. During the winter and spring, cotton prices in China rose from their October lows, but releases of Government stocks via auction subsequently stabilized prices at levels well below pre-reform highs. Government support was also reduced for some qualities of rice and wheat, and Chinese Government surveys of cotton farmers showed increasing interest in planting cotton. During recent years, China's cotton output has been more strongly correlated with its current year cotton prices than with lagged prices. To date, cotton prices in China have been about unchanged from their 1999/2000 average, consistent with the forecast of cotton output in China being about unchanged from the year before. India's monsoon has improved in recent weeks, suggesting that improved crops in areas damaged by last year's delayed rains could offset the negative impact of lower prices received during harvest during 1999/2000. This could keep 2000/01 output at the 12.3 million-bale level achieved during 1999/2000. Cotton prices in India declined about 3.5 percent from the year before during the 1999/2000 harvest (the average percent decline of India's four main cotton varieties), while the rice market price rose 6 percent during the marketing year. The direction of change in India's average cotton price has successfully predicted the direction of change in India's cotton crop during 5 out of the last 6 years. The exception, 1996/97, may have been influenced by 2 years of extraordinary price increases preceding the slight decline in 1995/96. India's output during 2000/01 on the other hand, is likely to be influenced by price declines in both 1999/2000 and 1998/99. With a weather-induced rebound for output in the key state of Gujarat offsetting reductions elsewhere, India's cotton crop should be unchanged from the year before in 2000/01. Consumption Rising More Slowly in 2000/01 World cotton consumption in 2000/01 is forecast at 92.3 million bales, 1.6 percent higher than mill-use during 1999/2000. This would be well below the 7 percent year-to-year gain reported during 1999/2000, but above the 0.5 percent growth averaged during the 1990's. Relatively good global economic prospects and relatively good consumption prospects in China and Russia account for the increase from the longer run average, while the convergence of growth rates in mill-use and consumer end-use in part accounts for the decline from 1999/2000's rate. Mill use is ultimately derived from consumer demand for products containing cotton. The United States is the largest consumer market for such goods, with estimated consumption of 20.5 million bales during 1999/2000, equivalent to 23 percent of world mill use of cotton. End-use in the United States has grown by an average of 6.6 percent annually since 1995, and during the 1990's end-use has grown by an average of 5.1 percent. U.S. cotton end-use gains have been fueled by a growing share for cotton as well as by increased end-use of all fibers. During the 1990's, total real domestic demand in the U.S. economy grew by an average of 3.6 percent annually, and is expected to grow by slightly less than during 2000/01. This suggests that end-use in the United States could rise by slightly less than 5 percent during 2000/01. Forecasting end-use consumption in the rest of the world by extrapolating past relationships between regional (Western Europe, Other Developed, and Developing Countries) end-use and regional real domestic demand and lagged cotton and other textile prices suggests that world end-use could rise 2.2 percent from the year before in calendar 2000. This compares with a 1.1-percent increase the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) has estimated for calendar 1999 in their May 2000 update to their textile demand estimates. End-use and mill-use of cotton do not correspond exactly, given the role of stockholding at each step in the chain of production between raw fiber, yarn, fabric, and final goods, and the role of international trade at each step. Another difference is that end-use is calculated on a calendar-year basis and mill-use on a marketing year, but over time they move together as growth rate differences in different years offset each other. During 1999, the difference between growth in mill-use (7 percent) and end-use (1.1 percent) was the second largest of the last 35 years. This difference in favor of mill-use followed 3 years during which global mill-use growth lagged global end-use growth. While some of 1999/2000's 7 percent surge in mill-use growth probably represented replenishment of product inventories drawn down during the preceding years, past experience suggests that mill-use will once again grow more slowly than end-use in the coming year. This is consistent with USDA's forecast of 1.6 percent global mill-use growth during 2000/01. China's Mill-Use Unchanged, India's and Brazil's Higher No change is forecast in mill-use in China, the world's largest consumer of raw cotton fiber. China's mill-use surged during 1999/2000 as cotton price reforms and a prolonged restructuring of the textile industry improved profitability and exports. Total yarn production surged, and cotton's share of yarn output rose as domestic prices moved decisively in favor of cotton. During 2000/01, yarn production is likely to continue rising in China, but recent relative price movements have not been as favorable, and cotton's share of yarn output could slip. Cotton fiber consumption (largely by textile mills) rose 2.8 million bales, or 15 percent, in China during 1999/2000, reaching a record 22 million bales. India-the second largest consumer of raw fiber-is expected to increase mill-use by 300,000 bales from the year before during 2000/01, the largest increase expected for any country. In percentage terms, this is a 2.2-percent gain, down from a 5.4-percent increase reported for 1999/2000, which was also about an average rate of increase for the 1990's. Since India substantially reoriented its economy during the early 1990's--spurring textile exports, economic growth, and cotton use substantially--a slower rate of growth than 5.4 percent is likely during coming years, following the initial adjustment to increased opportunities presented by liberalization. Since 1995, India's mill-use has grown at an average rate of 2.1 percent, about the rate forecast for 2000/01. Increased consumption is also expected in Brazil, Indonesia, the United States, Russia, Mexico, Pakistan, and Turkey. These increases range between 250,000 and 100,000 bales. Russia's increase of 100,000 bales follows on the heels of 1999/2000's increase of nearly 600,000 bales. Elsewhere in the New Independent States (NIS), smaller increases are foreseen in Turkmenistan (75,000 bales) and Uzbekistan (25,000 bales) where foreign investment is beginning to augment domestic use of fiber in these largely exporting countries. Russia's consumption will likely be boosted by economic recovery-the outlook for Russia's economy in 2000 and 2001 is for its strongest growth since the 1980's. Lower consumption than the year before is foreseen for Japan, Egypt, Hong Kong, and Zimbabwe. These expected declines range from 25,000 to 75,000 bales. Cotton Trade and U.S. Share Grow World cotton trade is expected to increase 1 million bales to 28 million, its highest since 1994/95. Only the United States is expected to achieve a significant increase in exports from the year before. Just as with production, the expected increase in U.S. exports-1.4 million bales-dwarfs the next largest expected gain-Argentina's 150,000 bales-by about a factor of 10. With U.S. exports reaching 8.2 million bales during 2000/01, the U.S. share of world trade is expected to increase to 29 percent, somewhat above the 25 percent that was both the level during 1999/2000 and the average for the 1990's. This would mark the second year of a large increase in U.S. exports driven by a growing gap between foreign consumption and production, increased U.S. production and supplies, and the integration of North American textile industries. During 2000/01, U.S. exports are expected to be further supported by a reduction in China's exports. During 1999/2000, the second largest year-to-year increase in exports of any country occurred in China, where exports increased 870,000 bales, compared with the United States' 2.5-million-bale increase. Subsidies were made available for China's exports during 1998/99 and rolled over into 1999/2000, and exports rose from essentially nothing in 1997/98 to 1.6 million bales in 1999/2000. Exports were largely of cotton from Xinjiang-China's westernmost region-and difficulties were encountered during 1999/2000 due to transportation bottlenecks and escalating prices. Recently, import quotas have been reopened in China for high-quality cotton as consumption has surged and available stocks tightened. While interest in exporting remains high in China, the recent relaxation of import policy and last winter's waning in export ardor indicate that China's cotton supply and demand balance no longer unequivocally supports continued net exports. The Chinese Government's willingness to permit exports in the coming year, and the desire of potential exporters in China to sell externally rather than domestically, is bound up with the Government's decisions on subsidizing stock releases of cotton held since the mid-1990's, and the willingness to permit additional imports. Projecting the combined evolution of China's continued steady exports during late 1999/2000, its expansion of import permits, and stock releases to steady prices suggests that China could both export and import during 2000/01 in about equal amounts. Since Xinjiang's crop seems likely to be similar to last year's, substantial exports are possible, but are likely to be lower given domestic mill demand for higher quality cotton. At 700,000 bales, China's 2000/01 exports are forecast 850,000 bales lower than in 1999/2000. Imports are also forecast at 700,000 bales, up 600,000 bales from 1999/2000. Lower exports than the year before are also foreseen from Egypt, Pakistan, Spain, and Mexico. These declines range from 175,000 bales to 90,000 bales, and largely stem from reduced production. On the other hand, slightly greater exports from Africa's Franc Zone are expected in 2000/01-up about 200,000 bales to 3.9 million-as production there rises. Uzbekistan's exports are forecast 100,000 bales higher at 4.3 million bales, and Australia's are foreseen unchanged from the year before, at 3 million. From the import side, lower production in Mexico is expected to drive imports there up 450,000 bales to 2.3 million. Mexico is expected to become the largest importer in the world, slightly surpassing Indonesia. A smaller year-to-year increase is expected in Indonesia's imports (150,000 bales), and in Brazil's and Turkey's (100,000 bales each). A 200,000-bale decline is foreseen in India's imports, and import declines ranging from 100,000 bales to 50,000 bales are foreseen for Japan, Pakistan, Korea, and the United States. World Stocks To Decline for the First Time Since 1993 World ending stocks are expected to fall 4.7 million bales to 36.1 million during 2000/01, but changes in China account for virtually all of the expected decline. Excluding China, stocks are expected to fall only about 100,000 bales. While small, this is the first decline in world-excluding-China stocks since 1994/95, bringing to an end one of the most prolonged periods of stock increases in recent history. Outside of China-where stocks are forecast to fall 4.5 million bales to 10.8 million -the largest decline is foreseen in Pakistan, where stocks are expected to fall about 400,000 bales. India's stocks are expected to fall about 350,000 bales. With stock declines in India and Pakistan offsetting higher stocks in the United States (up 900,000 bales) and Brazil (110,000 bales), the ratio of ending stocks to consumption for the world excluding China, is forecast to fall from 37 percent in 1999/2000 to 35.9 percent in 2000/01. The average value of this ratio during the 1990s was 35.5 percent, while the average for the A-Index during the 1990's was 72 cents. During the 1990's, global ending stocks outside of China ranged from 32.6 percent to 39 percent of consumption, while the A-Index ranged from 53 cents to 94 cents. These minimum and maximum prices occurred during the 1990's peaks for China's net exports and imports, respectively. U.S. Textile Trade Declines from a Month Earlier April textile trade data indicate imports declined 13 percent from a month earlier to 960 million pounds (raw-fiber equivalent). April shipments were the lowest of 2000, but were still 12 percent above a year earlier. Overall imports of all fibers and all end-use categories were below March levels. Cotton textile imports, at 539 million pounds, accounted for 56 percent of all textile shipments. The same share as in April 1999. Total U.S. exports in April decreased 7 percent from the previous month, but were 9 percent above a year earlier. Shipments of all fibers and all end-use categories declined from month-earlier levels. Apparel exports, at 169 million pounds, were 8 percent below March shipments and 2 percent below April 1999. Overall, the April textile trade deficit totaled 520 million pounds, with cotton accounting for 66 percent of the total (342 million pounds). The April deficit declined 18 percent from a month earlier, but was 14 percent above April 1999. The deficit for the first 4 months of 2000 was 2.4 billion pounds, compared with 2.1 billion a year ago. With the continuing growth of textile imports, the textile trade deficit will likely increase again in 2000. The next Cotton and Wool Outlook (CWS-0700) will be released on August 14, 2000. Information Contacts: Leslie Meyer (U.S. Cotton and Textile) LMEYER@ERS.USDA.GOV (202) 694-5307 Stephen MacDonald (Foreign Cotton) STEPHENM@ERS.USDA.GOV (202) 694-5305 Robert Skinner (Textile and Wool) RSKINNER@ERS.USDA.GOV (202) 694-3130 U.S. COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES -------------------------------------------------------------------- 1999/2000 --------------------------- Item 1998/99 May Jun Jul -------------------------------------------------------------------- Upland: Million acres Planted 13.064 14.584 14.584 14.584 Harvested 10.449 13.138 13.138 13.138 Pounds Yield/harvested acre 619 595 595 595 Million 480-lb bales Beginning stocks 3.822 3.836 3.836 3.836 Production 13.476 16.294 16.294 16.294 Total supply 1/ 17.729 20.205 20.190 20.190 Mill use 10.254 9.955 9.955 9.960 Exports 4.056 6.180 6.380 6.380 Total use 14.310 16.135 16.335 16.340 Ending stocks 3.836 4.053 3.838 3.833 Percent Stocks-to-use ratio 26.8 25.1 23.5 23.5 Extra-long staple: 1,000 acres Planted 328 290 290 290 Harvested 235 287 287 287 Pounds Yield/harvested acre 904 1,128 1,128 1,128 1,000 480-lb bales Beginning stocks 65 103 103 103 Production 442 674 674 674 Total supply 1/ 519 802 817 817 Mill use 147 145 145 140 Exports 288 420 420 420 Total use 435 565 565 560 Ending stocks 103 247 262 267 Percent Stocks-to-use ratio 23.7 43.7 46.4 47.7 -------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA estimates. 1/ Includes imports. WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES -------------------------------------------------------------------- 1999/2000 ------------------------------ Item 1998/99 May Jun Jul -------------------------------------------------------------------- Supply: Million 480-lb bales Beginning stocks World 43.87 43.43 45.46 45.05 Foreign 39.99 41.49 41.52 41.11 Production World 84.65 87.28 87.20 86.64 Foreign 70.74 70.31 70.24 69.67 Imports World 25.28 27.52 27.32 27.23 Foreign 24.84 27.42 27.22 27.13 Use: Mill use World 84.93 90.53 90.76 90.84 Foreign 74.53 80.43 80.66 80.74 Exports World 23.98 26.89 26.95 27.05 Foreign 19.64 20.29 20.15 20.25 Ending stocks World 45.05 42.55 41.99 40.76 Foreign 41.11 38.25 37.89 36.66 Stocks-to-use ratio Percent World 53.0 47.0 46.3 44.9 Foreign 55.2 47.6 47.0 45.4 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA estimates. FIBER SUPPLY ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000 1999 ---------------------------- Item Mar Apr May May ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb bales Ginnings 0 0 0 0 Imports since August 1 74.9 83.1 NA 203.5 Stocks, beginning 12,057 10,160 8,659 6,645 At mills 501 502 496 593 Public storage 9,726 7,977 6,689 5,629 CCC stocks 836 510 439 650 Manmade: Million pounds Production 944.5 864.5 930.2 835.9 Noncellulosic 911.9 836.9 897.7 810.2 Cellulosic 32.6 27.6 32.5 25.7 Total since January 1 2,689.4 3,553.9 4,484.1 4,185.3 2000 1999 ------------------------- Feb Mar Arp Apr ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Million pounds Raw fiber imports 135.7 147.3 135.0 132.3 Noncellulosic 130.6 141.4 130.5 126.7 Cellulosic 5.1 5.9 4.5 5.6 Total since January 1 288.8 436.1 571.1 487.0 Wool and Mohair: 1,000 pounds Raw wool imports, clean 3,805 3,785 4,570 7,872 48's-and-finer 1,879 2,145 3,197 5,742 Not-finer-than-46's 1,927 1,640 1,373 2,130 Total since January 1 8,692 12,476 17,046 29,282 Wool top imports 303 319 208 208 Total since January 1 688 1,007 1,215 1,359 Mohair imports, clean 0 0 0 0 Total since January 1 4 4 4 6 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NA = Not available. COTTON SYSTEM FIBER CONSUMPTION ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000 1999 -------------------------- Item Mar Apr May May --------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb bales All consumed by mills 1/ 923 800 915 864 Total since August 1 1/ 6,773 7,573 8,488 8,731 SA annual rate 2/ 10,189 10,148 9,982 10,286 SA daily rate 2/ 39.0 38.9 38.2 39.6 Daily rate 40.1 40.0 39.8 41.1 Upland consumed by mills 1/ 910 789 901 850 Total since August 1 1/ 6,681 7,470 8,371 8,607 SA daily rate 2/ 38.5 38.3 37.7 38.9 Daily rate 39.5 39.5 39.2 40.5 Spindles in place 4,570 4,552 4,626 5,160 Active spindles 4,386 4,359 4,423 4,660 100 percent cotton 2,381 2,356 2,443 2,530 100 percent manmade 690 684 684 750 Blends 1,315 1,319 1,296 1,380 Percent Cotton's share of fibers 77.9 77.7 76.9 78.5 Manmade: 1,000 pounds Total consumed by mills 1/ 125,696 110,433 131,996 113,797 Total since August 1 1/ 892,791 1,003,224 1,135,220 1,085,152 Daily rate 5,465 5,522 6,600 5,690 Noncellulosic staple 5,150 5,210 6,276 5,365 Cellulosic staple 315 312 324 325 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Adjusted to calendar month. 2/ SA = Seasonally adjusted. FIBER EXPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000 1999 --------------------------- Item Feb Mar Apr Apr ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb bales Upland exports 694 926 659 137 Total since August 1 2,886 3,812 4,471 3,282 Sales for next season 66 136 129 109 Total since August 1 445 581 710 537 ELS exports 42.2 52.1 49.8 32.1 Total since August 1 183.7 235.8 285.6 216.2 Sales for next season 8.2 22.8 50.9 22.3 Total since August 1 20.4 43.2 94.0 72.6 Manmade: Million pounds Raw fiber exports 100.6 106.3 90.8 79.5 Noncellulosic 95.6 100.1 86.6 77.2 Cellulosic 5.0 6.2 4.2 2.3 Total since January 1 178.6 284.9 375.7 306.1 Wool and Mohair: 1,000 pounds Raw wool exports, clean 214.3 434.5 480.5 496.7 Total since January 1 558.1 992.6 1,473.1 775.8 Wool top exports 277.9 628.3 300.4 792.9 Total since January 1 711.9 1,340.2 1,640.6 1,937.0 Mohair exports, clean 0 171.5 194.3 292.4 Total since January 1 350.9 522.5 716.8 975.2 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FIBER PRICES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000 1999 ---------------------------- Item Apr May Jun Jun ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cents per pound Domestic cotton prices: Adjusted World Price 44.83 46.85 46.81 43.38 May'2000 futures 59.04 62.19 59.24 58.90 Dec'2000 futures 59.92 62.61 60.58 58.76 Upland spot 41-34 53.76 58.31 54.97 53.74 Pima spot 03-46 84.79 84.74 85.25 82.50 Avg. price received by: Upland producers 46.00 47.30 48.10 55.60 Mill delivered: Cotton Actual 61.04 64.05 62.10 60.87 Raw fiber equivalent 67.82 71.17 69.00 67.63 Rayon staple Actual 97.00 97.00 98.00 98.00 Raw fiber equivalent 101.04 101.04 102.08 102.08 Polyester staple Actual 55.00 58.00 58.00 51.00 Raw fiber equivalent 57.29 60.42 60.42 53.13 Price ratios Percent Cotton/rayon 67.1 70.4 67.6 66.3 Cotton/polyester 118.4 117.8 114.2 127.3 Northern Europe cotton quotes: Cents per pound A Index 58.90 60.53 59.56 58.63 Memphis Territory 64.31 68.88 NQ NQ California/Arizona 64.19 68.63 64.95 64.25 B Index 53.35 54.96 54.16 NQ Orleans/Texas 52.81 57.63 55.10 NQ Wool prices (clean): Dollars per pound U.S. 56's 0.54 0.55 0.55 0.65 Australian 56's 1/ 1.27 1.30 1.33 1.33 U.S. 60's 0.74 0.80 0.82 0.92 Australian 60's 1/ 1.37 1.39 1.40 1.38 U.S. 64's 1.10 1.25 1.25 1.22 Australian 64's 1/ 1.56 1.56 1.54 1.49 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- NQ = No quotes. 1/ In bond, Charleston, SC. TEXTILE TRADE ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000 1999 ---------------------------- Item Feb Mar Apr Apr ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Imports: 1,000 pounds 1/ Yarn, thread, and fabric 251,370 283,956 259,710 229,100 Cotton 112,014 123,753 110,989 97,485 Linen 20,906 29,957 23,386 19,677 Wool 4,212 4,916 5,052 3,853 Silk 889 1,028 898 734 Manmade 113,349 124,302 119,385 107,351 Apparel 670,410 707,131 593,731 530.541 Cotton 420.529 447,191 372,661 337,526 Linen 18,562 17,512 14,499 12,038 Wool 13,088 12,940 12,381 12,431 Silk 14,506 14,147 12,284 10,337 Manmade 203,725 315,341 181,906 158,209 House furnishings 65,918 70,289 63,527 57,604 Cotton 48,026 50,876 45,804 43,113 Linen 1,017 1,007 1,218 197 Wool 257 257 342 102 Silk 140 119 141 128 Manmade 16,478 18,030 16,022 14,064 Floor coverings 30,657 36,213 35,484 33,900 Cotton 4,120 4,687 4,712 5,335 Linen 4,639 5,257 6,233 4,752 Wool 8,837 10,683 10,338 8,667 Silk 728 779 479 432 Manmade 12,333 14,807 13,722 14,714 Total imports 2/ 1,026,571 1,105,516 960,497 858,369 Cotton 589,642 630,889 538,803 487,776 Linen 45,176 53,812 45,419 36,698 Wool 26,446 28,835 28,180 25,156 Silk 16,264 16,073 13,802 11,631 Manmade 349,043 375,906 334,293 297,108 Exports: 1,000 pounds 1/ Yarn, thread, and fabric 205,714 230,828 223,625 188,123 Cotton 78,930 90,978 85,129 72,490 Linen 6,474 6,900 6,477 5,748 Wool 5,241 6,397 5,057 5,950 Silk 2,210 2,413 2,286 2,310 Manmade 112,859 124,140 124,676 101,625 Apparel 151,188 189,811 169,343 173,172 Cotton 94,362 117,175 104,665 108,985 Linen 1,910 2,181 2,065 2,069 Wool 6,900 9,709 8,363 6,418 Silk 4,204 5,157 4,627 3,647 Manmade 43,812 55,589 49,623 52,053 House furnishings 6,655 7,261 6,336 5,607 Cotton 4,070 4,407 3,937 3,386 Linen 236 229 199 166 Wool 51 63 60 54 Silk 88 87 58 109 Manmade 2,210 2,475 2,082 1,892 Floor coverings 35,924 42,601 36,549 35,306 Cotton 2,685 3,390 2,955 2,733 Linen 1,526 1,844 1,776 1,608 Wool 3,924 4,953 4,004 3,262 Silk 55 69 94 84 Manmade 27,734 32,345 27,720 27,619 Total exports 2/ 399,775 470,776 440,097 402,462 Cotton 180,129 216,032 196,762 187,670 Linen 10,155 11,163 10,526 9,598 Wool 16,130 21,140 17,497 15,696 Silk 6,557 7,726 7,065 6,150 Manmade 186,805 214,715 208,247 183,347 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Includes headgear. U.S. COTTON TEXTILE IMPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000 1999 --------------------------- Item Feb Mar Apr Apr ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 pounds 1/ North America 246,586 276,846 230,562 216,967 Canada 22,655 23,423 22,599 21,312 Costa Rica 9,002 10,563 9,189 8,356 Dominican Republic 21,803 27,103 21,194 21,649 El Salvador 21,659 23,885 18,033 17,838 Guatemala 12,279 14,409 11,148 9,067 Haiti 4,121 4,525 3,617 3,644 Honduras 38,777 42,037 33,782 27,449 Jamaica 3,230 3,768 2,872 3,562 Mexico 108,618 122,354 105,125 100,336 Nicaragua 4,135 4,459 2,705 3,259 South America 12,661 15,754 11,650 7,705 Argentina 25 4 6 16 Brazil 5,539 7,778 5,210 1,856 Chile 45 31 35 17 Colombia 3,035 3,801 2,269 2,643 Peru 3,506 3,560 3,637 2,660 Europe 36,727 43,690 37,432 30,222 Estonia 241 952 798 628 France 766 825 642 536 Germany 1,229 1,598 935 798 Italy 4,249 4,362 4,161 2,920 Portugal 2,710 3,146 2,891 3,714 Russia 1,895 2,125 2,665 994 Spain 1,126 1,060 776 1,253 Turkey 17,577 21,720 17,515 14,438 United Kingdom 1,416 1,304 979 1,091 Asia 276,651 274,340 242,877 219,343 Bahrain 2,180 3,376 1,845 778 Bangladesh 19,895 21,406 16,543 13,768 China 36,899 30,830 32,178 28,328 Hong Kong 30,767 20,558 32,951 21,898 India 29,136 35,543 30,104 30,535 Indonesia 11,355 12,599 10,704 11,213 Israel 2,549 4,048 3,443 3,366 Japan 1,412 1,498 1,385 1,188 Macao 5,343 3,624 4,292 4,059 Malaysia 5,293 7,246 4,839 5,218 Nepal 2,742 3,420 2,654 1,863 Oman 1,526 2,195 1,496 1,569 Pakistan 45,656 44,689 39,868 33,060 Philippines 11,155 11,587 8,682 8,579 Qatar 1,415 1,738 1,017 964 Singapore 3,338 1,711 1,834 2,030 South Korea 9,420 9,932 9,642 8,540 Sri Lanka 8,457 9,272 8,115 7,942 Taiwan 11,470 10,762 9,865 10,466 Thailand 14,209 14,903 12,288 11,386 U Arab Em 4,773 4,566 3,781 2,496 Oceania 2,296 1,877 1,810 1,376 Australia 1,021 575 724 674 Fiji 957 971 801 533 Africa 14,720 13,382 14,471 12,164 Egypt 6,641 8,184 6,990 4,863 Lesotho 2,087 2,551 1,377 1,462 Mauritius 1,902 1,827 1,273 1,766 Morocco 939 1,314 1,130 1,183 South Africa 864 1,420 1,381 991 Tunisia 165 99 55 42 World 2/ 589,642 630,889 538,803 487,776 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding. U.S. COTTON TEXTILE EXPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000 1999 --------------------------- Country Feb Mar Apr Apr ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 pounds 1/ North America 160,075 194,440 176,823 167,400 Canada 26,789 30,644 26,836 28,856 Costa Rica 6,977 8,995 7,308 6,566 Dominican Republic 16,909 19,716 18,045 17,232 El Salvador 9,095 12,008 11,675 5,993 Guatemala 3,178 3,020 2,448 3,698 Haiti 2,324 2,872 2,347 2,354 Honduras 23,254 26,093 26,551 25,874 Jamaica 2,004 2,578 1,421 3,266 Mexico 67,701 86,430 78,527 71,928 South America 3,835 4,761 4,080 3,730 Argentina 259 140 263 202 Brazil 538 411 562 263 Chile 503 1,375 1,039 573 Colombia 821 1,357 964 1,459 Peru 510 45 244 49 Venezuela 956 1,104 620 864 Europe 6,650 8,193 7,527 7,508 Belgium 1,795 2,731 2,085 2,151 France 376 672 643 427 Germany 655 700 678 646 Ireland 84 98 107 104 Italy 484 268 258 331 Netherlands 544 491 501 368 United Kingdom 1,676 2,214 2,089 2,269 Asia 8,602 7,594 7,349 7,797 China 300 345 313 251 Hong Kong 759 755 757 1,048 Israel 528 459 544 287 Japan 3,516 3,433 3,544 3,530 Philippines 197 221 258 346 Saudi Arabia 470 243 233 423 Singapore 239 301 281 357 South Korea 501 676 247 337 Taiwan 435 289 338 282 U Arab Em 183 163 186 242 Oceania 571 576 654 691 Australia 472 488 417 563 New Zealand 74 66 62 31 Africa 396 468 329 544 Egypt 19 40 30 22 Ghana 18 9 16 33 Ivory Coast 0 20 1 35 Nigeria 76 49 106 132 South Africa 100 93 68 99 World 2/ 180,129 216,032 196,762 187,670 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding. ACTUAL AND PROJECTED COTTON ACREAGE ------------------------------------------------------------------- Projected Projected State/ Actual March June Region 1999 2000 1/ 2000 2/ 2000/1999 ------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 acres Percent Upland: Alabama 565 600 610 108 Florida 107 120 100 93 Georgia 1,470 1,500 1,450 99 N. Carolina 880 940 940 107 S. Carolina 330 360 320 97 Virginia 110 115 110 100 Southeast 3,462 3,635 3,530 102 Arkansas 970 1,000 930 96 Louisiana 615 690 740 120 Mississippi 1,200 1,250 1,360 113 Missouri 380 400 430 113 Tennessee 570 600 600 105 Delta 3,735 3,940 4,060 109 Kansas 33 36 40 121 Oklahoma 240 280 280 117 Texas 6,150 6,300 6,300 102 Southwest 6,423 6,616 6,620 103 Arizona 270 275 280 104 California 610 800 770 126 New Mexico 84 75 90 107 West 964 1,150 1,140 118 Total Upland 14,584 15,341 15,350 105 Pima: Arizona 9 9 6 67 California 240 175 170 71 New Mexico 8 6 6 75 Texas 33 27 20 61 Total Pima 290 217 202 70 Total All 14,874 15,558 15,552 105 ------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Planting intentions as indicated by reports from farmers. 2/ Total acres planted or intended to be planted. FINAL 1999 U.S. COTTON ACREAGE, YIELD, AND PRODUCTION ----------------------------------------------------------- State/ Region Planted Harvested Yield Production ----------------------------------------------------------- Lbs./ 1,000 1,000 acres harvested acre bales Upland: Alabama 495 475 559 553 Florida 89 80 489 81 Georgia 1,370 1,280 578 1,542 N. Carolina 710 705 699 1,026 S. Carolina 290 286 587 350 Virginia 92 91 765 145 Southeast 3,046 2,917 608 3,697 Arkansas 920 900 645 1,209 Louisiana 535 525 586 641 Mississippi 950 940 737 1,444 Missouri 370 357 471 350 Tennessee 450 445 589 546 Delta 3,225 3,167 635 4,190 Kansas 17 17 404 14 Oklahoma 160 120 560 140 Texas 5,650 3,300 524 3,600 Southwest 5,827 3,437 524 3,754 Arizona 250 248 1,177 608 California 650 620 887 1,146 New Mexico 66 60 640 80 West 966 928 949 1,834 Total Upland 13,064 10,449 619 13,476 Pima: Arizona 16 15 830 27 California 200 180 941 353 New Mexico 7 7 658 10 Texas 105 32 791 53 Total Pima 328 235 904 442 Total All 13,392 10,684 625 13,918 ------------------------------------------------------------ Based on USDA's May 2000 Crop Production report. END_OF_FILE