COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK October 13, 2000 October 2000, ERS-CWS-0900 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board -------------------------------------------------------------------------- COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK is issued electronically 10 times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no printed copies available. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS O U.S. 2000 Cotton Crop Continues To Decline O U.S. 2000/01 Demand Higher; Stocks Lower O Revised 1999/2000 Estimates O Historical Australian Revisions Help Raise 2000/01 Foreign Beginning Stocks O Pakistan, China Production Revised Upward O Higher Consumption in Pakistan and China Reducing Prospects Elsewhere O Textile Imports Outpace Exports U.S. 2000 Cotton Crop Continues To Decline According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) October survey of the 2000 cotton crop, U.S. production is forecast at 17.5 million bales, 5 percent below last month but still 3 percent higher than 1999/2000. Upland production is projected at 17.1 million bales, while the extra-long staple (ELS) crop is estimated at 406,000 bales. During the previous 20 years, the October forecast has been below final production 13 times and above 7 times. And, past differences between the October forecast and the final production estimate indicate that chances are two out of three for the 2000 U.S. cotton crop to range between 16.8 and 18.2 million bales. Compared with last season, upland production is projected to rise in each region of the Cottonbelt except the Southwest. In the Southwest, upland output is expected to decrease 600,000 bales this season to 4.6 million, as drought conditions were prevalent throughout the region. The Southwest yield is estimated at only 440 pounds per harvested acre, well below the last 4 years, in spite of USDA's special area survey this month that lowered the region's harvested area estimate by 550,000 acres. In the Delta region, upland production is projected to reach 5.3 million bales, 4 percent above 1999 and the largest regional output expected this season. While harvested area remains the highest in 5 years, the Delta yield of only 653 pounds per harvested acre will likely keep production there slightly below the 5-year average of 5.4 million bales. For the Southeast, production is forecast at 4.1 million bales, 16 percent above last season and the largest since 1996. Despite a yield decline this month to 627 pounds per harvested acre, the projected per-acre productivity in the Southeast remains above the previous 2 years. In the West, upland output is estimated at 2.9 million bales, 500,000 above last season and the result of area returning to upland after 2 years below 1 million acres. Favorable weather this season has also boosted the regional yield to 1,241 pounds per harvested acre, the highest in 7 years. While upland output has risen, ELS production in the West is expected to decline dramatically. Production there is projected at 379,000 bales, compared with 630,000 bales last season. However, California continues to take the lead in ELS production and is projected to account for 89 percent of the ELS crop in 2000. Total planted area to cotton is estimated at 15.5 million acres, and abandonment is projected at a relatively high 13 percent. As a result, cotton area to be harvested is forecast at only 13.5 million acres, slightly above last season and the highest since 1995. Based on the harvested area, the national yield is estimated at 620 pounds per acre, 9 pounds below the 5-year average. With development of the U.S. cotton crop accelerated this season by dry conditions, cotton harvest across the Cottonbelt is well ahead of normal. As of October 8, 93 percent of the cotton area had bolls opening, compared with an average of only 86 percent. In addition, the percentage of area harvested is running ahead, with 42 percent reported harvested, compared with a 5-year average of 31 percent. While harvest progress in most of the States is significantly better, the States in the Southeast have fallen behind their normal harvest progress. Meanwhile, 2000 cotton ginnings are reported higher than a year ago. As of October 1, nearly 3.3 million running bales had been ginned, compared with about 2.7 million at this time last year. U.S. 2000/01 Demand Higher; Stocks Lower Based on the October production forecast and carryin stocks estimated at 3.9 million bales, total U.S. cotton supplies for 2000/01 are projected to rise 2 percent to 21.5 million. Meanwhile, total demand for U.S. cotton is forecast to increase even more, supported by the projected record world consumption. In 2000/01, total U.S. cotton demand is forecast to reach 17.7 million bales, 4 percent above last season. USDA's forecast of U.S. cotton exports for 2000/01 is 300,000 bales lower this month, at 7.6 million bales, 13 percent above 1999/2000. A smaller expected U.S. crop accounts for much of the change, while reduced expected foreign imports are also a factor. USDA's forecast of world trade was also reduced, down 700,000 bales to 27 million bales, and, the U.S. share of world trade is forecast at 28 percent, its highest since 1994/95. With higher projections this month for 2000/01 consumption in cotton producing countries--Pakistan and China--and lower consumption estimated in importing countries--Taiwan, Korea, and Italy--the expected role of trade in meeting consumption needs is reduced. The traded share of world cotton consumption in 2000/01 is forecast at 29 percent, compared with 30 percent in 1999/2000, and an average of 31 percent during the 1990s. The long- term trend for this share has been downward--with the share averaging 38 percent during the 1980s. While the economic collapse of Russia accounts for much of this change, consumption has tended to gravitate to countries producing raw fiber. In contrast, U.S. mill use this season is currently estimated at 10.1 million bales, down 1 percent. The level and origin of cotton textile imports will play a crucial role in the amount of raw cotton consumed by U.S. mills this season. While the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) has increased cotton textile trade over the past 6 years, the strength of the dollar has also encouraged extensive foreign shipments to the United States. Despite expanding cotton textile exports during the first half of 2000, cotton textile imports reached 3.6 billion (raw-fiber equivalent) pounds, nearly 16 percent above the comparable period in 1999. While restructuring in the U.S. textile and apparel industries this year is likely to keep cotton mill demand below last season's 10.2-million-bale estimate, the recently enacted Caribbean Basin Initiative (CBI) legislation will offset a portion of the negative impact of textile imports. The CBI legislation provides easier access to the U.S. market in exchange for using U.S. fiber/fabric in the manufactured products. Additional cotton textile imports from CBI countries may help supplant imports from other regions that historically do not use U.S. cotton. As a result of these U.S. cotton supply and demand projections, ending stocks for 2000/01 are projected to decline slightly from the beginning level to 3.8 million bales. Ending stocks would be the lowest in 5 years, and the implied stocks-to-use ratio for the season is currently near 21.5 percent. Revised 1999/2000 Estimates Based on reports from the Census Bureau and USDA, U.S. cotton mill use, exports, and ending stocks for 1999/2000 were adjusted slightly this month. The revised consumption report indicated that U.S. mills used 10.240 million bales of cotton last season, 1.5 percent below the previous year. Exports, on the other hand, were revised to 6.750 million bales for 1999/2000, as data from a combination of several USDA reports provided justification to keep the U.S. cotton export estimate above that reported by the Census Bureau. In addition, the Census Bureau revised U.S. ending stocks. Based on necessary adjustments to the data, 1999/2000 ending stocks were estimated at 3.922 million bales, similar to stocks of the past four seasons. Historical Australian Revisions Help Raise 2000/01 Foreign Beginning Stocks USDA's estimate for foreign cotton production in 2000/01 is 980,000 bales higher than in September, and the estimate for consumption is 230,000 bales higher, but revisions are larger for beginning stocks, imports, and exports. Beginning stocks are 577,000 bales higher, imports are about 800,000 bales lower, and exports are 400,000 bales lower. USDA's foreign beginning stock estimate for 2000/01 is different largely due to changes in Australia, which bring USDA's Australian ending stock estimates closer to figures consistent with Australian Government data. Australian 2000/01 beginning stocks are estimated 724,000 bales higher than the month before, more than accounting for the entire increase in the total foreign estimate, with a downward revision in the European Union offsetting a small part of Australia's increase. At 69.4 million bales, USDA's estimate for foreign 2000/01 cotton production is 640,000 bales lower than 1999/2000s 70.1 million-bale estimate. Foreign consumption in 2000/01 is estimated at 82.6 million bales, 1.6 million bales or 1.9 percent above 1999/2000s 81 million-bale estimate. Foreign imports in 2000/01 are estimated at 27.1 million bales, nearly unchanged from their 1999/2000 level. Foreign exports in 2000/01 are estimated at 19.1 million bales, down 1.4 million from the year before. Foreign beginning stocks in 2000/01 are estimated at 36.6 million bales, down 4.6 million from the year before, and foreign ending stocks in 2000/01 are estimated at 31.2 million bales, down 5.3 million from the year before. China accounts for much of the annual change in both beginning and ending stocks compared with the year before. A review of official Australian Government export and ending stock statistics has resulted in revisions to USDA's estimates of Australia's supply and use extending over the past 10 years. The Australian Government publishes estimates of cotton stocks each year, and adjusting the Australian estimates into an August-July marketing year basis indicates that the USDA's estimates were too low, particularly in recent years. Incorporating the last decade of corrected export data still leaves estimated July 31 ending stocks substantially below levels consistent with the Australian Government's March 1 figures. This discrepancy accelerates in recent years, and indicates errors of an unknown nature. To at least partially reconcile these conflicting estimates, a negative loss figure is introduced beginning in 1993, starting at 50,000 bales, growing to 100,000 bales in 1997, and remaining at 100,000 bales thereafter. The Australian 2000/01 crop estimate is lower this month since prospects for dryland planting diminish as another month passes without needed precipitation. The expected Australian crop is down 100,000 bales from September's estimate, to 3.4 million bales. The lower Australian crop suggests a slightly less robust outlook for Australian exports in 2000/01, and exports are 50,000 bales lower at 3.2 million, about the same as the year before. USDA's forecast for Australian 2000/01 ending stocks is 1.8 million bales this month, 774,000 bales higher than the estimate published in September. However, virtually all of this increase reflects historical revisions, with this months estimate of Australia's 2000/01 beginning stocks 724,000 bales higher than the estimate published in September. Historical revisions for a number of smaller members of the European Union are also included in USDA's October estimates. In recent years, the increasing importance of the internet and the general availability of computers has opened new avenues for the dissemination of data. At the same time, the overseas representatives of USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service have taken on increased marketing and representation responsibilities in response to the changing priorities of American agriculture. As a result, the number of countries from which USDA receives embassy reports of cotton supply and demand have declined in recent years. However, the transition to newly available sources of data has lagged, necessitating this months revisions. A review of historical export and import data contained in commercially available databases has resulted in revisions to USDA's supply and demand estimates for a number of smaller countries back to 1990/91. The countries include: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Ireland, the Netherlands, Portugal, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. While the databases include only export and import data, consumption data were also adjusted in some cases in order to reconcile net cotton trade data with reasonable assumptions about stockholding behavior, and based on industry information about plant locations. For 1999/2000 and 2000/01, these changes have brought ending stocks about 225,000 to 300,000 bales lower, and consumption in each year about 80,000 bales lower. Pakistan, China Production Revised Upward Based on information from USDA's agricultural attache, the forecast for Pakistan's 2000/01 crop was increased 600,000 bales, to 8.3 million. Area in 2000/01 is now estimated higher than the year before, reflecting farmers efforts to switch away from crops more likely to suffer from potential water shortages, and yield prospects appear better in light of reported light insect pressure. Pakistan's estimated 1999/2000 crop is also higher this month as the production estimate is adjusted to match official Pakistani data. The revised 1999/2000 production estimate brings the share of Pakistan's cotton crop that eludes Pakistan's system of reporting gin arrivals to an unprecedented high, despite the Government's efforts to improve documentation and taxation of economic activity. The forecast for China's 2000/01 crop is 500,000 bales higher this month as China's production season draws to a close with relatively few weather disturbances, and with relatively consistent press reports from China suggesting improved production in Xinjiang. During the 1980s and early 1990's, little reliable information about even the direction of change for China's crop was available before November. As the evolution of market institutions has advanced since then, increasing amounts of Government and industry information have become available from China, and this year such information has generally suggested output could be higher than during 1999/2000. China's 2000/01 crop is estimated at 18 million bales, 2.2 percent above the 1999/2000 crop. Higher procurement prices have been evident this year, and China's cotton producers increased area about 2 percent this year in anticipation of these improved returns. However, at 3.8 million hectares, China's estimated 2000/01 cotton area remains 15 percent below its 1998/99 level. Brazil's 2000/01 crop forecast is 200,000 bales higher than last month, at 3.4 million bales, due to indications that area in Matto Grosso will rise further than previously expected. Compared with 1999/2000, Brazil's crop is expected to rise 500,000 bales, or 17 percent. As recently as 1996, Brazil's output had fallen to a nadir of 1.3 million bales. With a 3.4- million-bale crop, production in 2000/01 is expected to have risen 164 percent over 4 years, the largest such gain of any major cotton-producing country. The next largest 1996-2000 gain is expected to occur in Paraguay: while the forecast for the 2000/01 Paraguayan crop is unchanged compared with the September forecast, the crop is expected to be 142 percent above its 1996 level. Crop forecasts for 2000/01 are lower than in September for Sudan (125,000 bales lower), Mali (100,000 bales), Togo (55,000 bales), and Zambia (50,000 bales). However, Zimbabwe's estimate is 165,000 bales higher. Changes in Mali and Togo bring USDA's estimate of 2000/01 production in West Africa's Franc Zone down to 3.5 million bales, about 350,000 bales below 1999/2000 production. This would mark the third consecutive year of shrinking crops in the Franc Zone, and a 19-percent decline in production since 1997. The region has not undergone a decline of this magnitude since 1970. Higher Consumption in Pakistan and China Reducing Prospects Elsewhere This month's 208,000-bale increase in forecast 2000/01 foreign consumption is the net result of substantial increases in Pakistan and China, and smaller decreases across the rest of Asia and in some smaller members of the European Union. Consumption in Pakistan in 2000/01 is forecast at 8 million bales, 400,000 bales above the September forecast. Pakistan's 1999/2000 consumption estimate was increased 150,000 bales, to 7.65 million bales, as Government data from Pakistan showed a stronger late season performance than earlier expected. Higher exports of yarn account for much of the increase in the 2000/01 forecast--data for July and August show the volume of Pakistan's yarn exports was about 20 percent above year-earlier levels. Furthermore, while Pakistan's economy could undoubtedly improve in some respects, its expected gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of nearly 5 percent suggests domestic consumption of textile products (accounting for about one-third of mill use) will increase as well. With revised production estimates adding 1 million bales to Pakistan's cotton supplies over 1999/2000 and 2000/01, the availability of fiber is not a constraint to improved consumption prospects. While Pakistan's precarious foreign exchange balances do suggest that importing spinning equipment might meet some difficulties, the record level of cotton use during 1999/2000 suggests spindles have been added as well as reactivated. After stagnating around 7.1 million bales for several years, Pakistan's consumption is now estimated to have increased by 650,000 bales in 1999/2000 and 350,000 bales in 2000/01. China's 2000/01 consumption forecast is increased 300,000 bales to 22.5 million bales, which is also 300,000 bales above China's estimated 1999/2000 consumption. The most recent monthly yarn production level reported by China's Government was another record-high, the third time a record has been reached during the last 5 months. The August 2000 yarn output figure was 24 percent above its year-earlier level, and China's monthly yarn output has been at least 8 percent above year-earlier levels in every month but one since May 1999. USDA's 2000/01 consumption estimate assumes that either year-to-year gains in total yarn output will diminish substantially in coming months, or that cotten's share of the fiber used in this yarn will dip. USDA's estimate of China's consumption of cotton for uses other than yarn remains fixed at about 2.7 million bales for the entire 1992/93-2000/01 period. While China's domestic consumption of clothing and other products is reportedly improving as its economy accelerates, much of the increased mill consumption of cotton in China is believed to be for exported textile products. While the January-June volume of cotton textiles and apparel the United States has imported from China has increased by only 6 percent compared with a year earlier, the January-July value of textiles and apparel that Japan imported from China increased by 18 percent. China accounted for 70 percent of Japan's entire textile and apparel import increase during January-July 2000 and accounted for 50 percent of South Korea's. Anecdotal reports from other Asian countries confirm that competition for textile and apparel exports is strong this year, and China is often mentioned as a source of competition. Further examination of Korea's textile trade during the last few years indicates that Korea's net imports of cotton textiles deteriorated by the equivalent of nearly 200,000 bales during the 1999/2000 marketing year. While some of this could have been accounted for by changes in domestic end-use consumption and adjustments in inventory along the production chain, it suggests that the prospects for spinning in Korea have deteriorated. A recent report from USDA's Korean attache indicates that yarn stocks rose 50 percent during 1999/2000, suggesting that an adjustment could come during 2000/01. Accordingly, USDA's estimate of Korean mill consumption of raw cotton in 2000/01 is reduced 100,000 bales to 1.4 million bales. Forecasted imports in 2000/01 are accordingly reduced 150,000 bales, to 1.35 million. Taiwan's estimated 1999/2000 mill use of raw cotton is also reduced, down 150,000 bales to 1.3 million. Taiwan imported substantially more than 1.3 million bales in 1999/2000, but much of the additional imports are believed to have been to take advantage of low prices. Lower mill use means that estimated 1999/2000 ending stocks now exceed "average" levels by between 1 and 2 month's use. USDA's attache reports that consumption is likely to fall further in 2000/01, and USDA's forecast of Taiwan's 2000/01 consumption is reduced 250,000 bales to 1.15 million bales. With higher beginning stocks, and reduced consumption compared with last month, USDA's forecast of Taiwan's 2000/01 imports is reduced 375,000 bales, to 1.025 million bales. This would be the lowest level of imports since 1980/81. Updated 1999/2000 trade data for Italy suggest imports are 1.35 million bales, rather than the 1.5 million bales USDA estimated for 1999/2000 in September. USDA's 1999/2000 consumption estimate is also reduced 150,000 bales. However, press reports indicate that Italian textile exports are improving, and while USDA's forecasts of Italy's 2000/01 imports and consumption are below the levels forecasted in September, they are still forecasted to surpass previous year levels. At 1.45 million bales, Italy's 2000/01 imports are forecast 100,000 bales lower than they were during September, and at 1.4 million bales, Italy's 2000/01 consumption is forecast 100,000 bales lower than it was during September. Textile Imports Outpace Exports July textile imports of all fibers rose 26 million pounds to a record 1.259 billion pounds. Imports increased for the third consecutive month and were 2 percent above June and 10 percent higher than July 1999. Larger shipments of manmade, wool, and silk fibers more than offset small declines in cotton and linen. Similarly, increases in imports of apparel and home furnishings more than offset slight decreases in other end-use categories. Cotton textile imports, at 697 million pounds, were 2 million below June but 10 percent above July 1999 shipments. Cotton imports from Asia totaled 335 million pounds and accounted for 48 percent of total shipments. Larger imports from major suppliers such as China, India, Indonesia, and Pakistan were responsible for most of the increase. Textile exports, at 433 million pounds, declined 13 percent from June, but were 21 percent above a year earlier. Exports of all major fibers and all end-use categories were lower than June shipments. Cotton textile exports, at 199 million pounds, were 14 percent below a month earlier. Lower U.S. exports to North American countries accounted for nearly all of the monthly decline. During the first 7 months of 2000, the textile trade deficit is on track to establish another record in 2000. The overall deficit rose to 4.7 billion pounds by the end of July, compared with 4.0 billion in 1999, and 3.5 billion in 1998. Historically, cotton textiles have accounted for the largest share of the trade deficit. Through July, cotton textile imports exceeded exports by 2.9 billion pounds, representing 62 percent of the total deficit. With larger imports of cotton and other major fibers, the textile trade deficit will likely continue to widen this year. * * * * * The Cotton and Wool Yearbook summary (CWS-1000) will be released on November 21, 2000. The next Cotton and Wool Outlook (CWS-1100) will be released on December 13, 2000. ***************************************************************** Information Contacts: Leslie Meyer (U.S. Cotton and Textiles) LMEYER@ERS.USDA.GOV (202) 694-5307 Stephen MacDonald (Foreign Cotton) STEPHENM@ERS.USDA.GOV (202) 694-5305 Robert Skinner (Textiles and Wool) RSKINNER@ERS.USDA.GOV (202) 694-5313 U.S. COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000/01 ----------------------------- Item 1999/2000 Aug Sep Oct ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Upland: Million acres Planted 14.584 15.350 15.350 15.350 Harvested 13.138 14.007 13.947 13.372 Pounds Yield/harvested acre 595 642 616 613 Million 480-lb bales Beginning stocks 3.836 3.855 3.750 3.672 Production 16.294 18.740 17.904 17.079 Total supply 1/ 20.183 22.625 21.709 20.806 Mill use 10.103 10.050 10.060 9.960 Exports 6.303 7.750 7.465 7.125 Total use 16.406 17.800 17.525 17.085 Ending stocks 3.672 4.806 4.134 3.729 Percent Stocks-to-use ratio 22.4 27.0 23.6 21.8 Extra-long staple: 1,000 acres Planted 290 182 182 182 Harvested 287 181 176 172 Pounds Yield/harvested acre 1,128 1,111 1,121 1,133 1,000 480-lb bales Beginning stocks 103 245 200 250 Production 674 419 411 406 Total supply 1/ 821 684 631 676 Mill use 137 150 140 140 Exports 447 450 435 475 Total use 584 600 575 615 Ending stocks 250 94 66 71 Percent Stocks-to-use ratio 42.8 15.7 11.5 11.5 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA estimates. 1/ Includes imports. WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000/01 ----------------------------- Item 1999/2000 Aug Sep Oct ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Supply: Million 480-lb bales Beginning stocks World 45.08 40.14 39.92 40.47 Foreign 41.14 36.04 35.97 36.55 Production World 87.03 87.31 86.75 86.90 Foreign 70.06 68.15 68.43 69.41 Imports World 27.13 28.08 28.01 27.22 Foreign 27.03 28.03 27.94 27.15 Use: Mill use World 91.24 92.47 92.57 92.70 Foreign 81.00 82.27 82.37 82.60 Exports World 27.26 27.64 27.45 26.75 Foreign 20.51 19.44 19.55 19.15 Ending stocks World 40.47 35.15 34.35 34.99 Foreign 36.55 30.25 30.15 31.19 Stocks-to-use ratio Percent World 44.4 38.0 37.1 37.7 Foreign 45.1 36.8 36.6 37.8 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA estimates. FIBER SUPPLY ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000 1999 ---------------------------- Item Jun Jul Aug Aug ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb bales Ginnings 0 0 864 577 Imports since August 1 94.8 96.5 NA 35.7 Stocks, beginning 7,090 5,678 3,922 3,939 At mills 487 500 526 589 Public storage 5,381 4,233 3,529 3,330 CCC stocks 350 295 240 436 Manmade: Million pounds Production 894.5 841.4 902.9 858.5 Noncellulosic 846.3 810.7 874.1 836.9 Cellulosic 28.2 30.7 28.8 21.6 Total since January 1 5,220.6 6,062.0 6,964.9 6,793.5 2000 1999 ------------------------- May Jun Jul Jul ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Million pounds Raw fiber imports 146.4 132.7 131.8 129.9 Noncellulosic 140.9 127.9 126.3 124.7 Cellulosic 5.5 4.8 5.5 5.2 Total since January 1 717.5 850.2 982.0 914.2 Wool and Mohair: 1,000 pounds Raw wool imports, clean 5,060 2,690 3,151 3,677 48's-and-finer 2,793 1,214 1,725 2,063 Not-finer-than-46's 2,267 1,476 1,426 1,614 Total since January 1 22,106 24,796 27,947 35,003 Wool top imports 472 320 432 196 Total since January 1 2,822 3,142 3,574 925 Mohair imports, clean 0 0 0 0 Total since January 1 4 4 4 16 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NA = Not available. COTTON SYSTEM FIBER CONSUMPTION ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000 1999 -------------------------- Item Jun Jul Aug Aug --------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb bales All consumed by mills 1/ 907 730 922 872 Total since August 1 1/ 9,399 10,129 922 872 SA annual rate 2/ 10,513 9,998 10,084 9,953 SA daily rate 2/ 40.3 38.3 38.6 38.1 Daily rate 41.2 34.8 40.1 39.6 Upland consumed by mills 1/ 896 721 910 857 Total since August 1 1/ 9,271 9,992 910 857 SA daily rate 2/ 39.8 37.9 38.1 37.5 Daily rate 40.7 34.3 39.5 39.0 Spindles in place 4,629 4,634 4,600 4,980 Active spindles 4,427 4,379 4,393 4,665 100 percent cotton 2,435 2,423 2,411 2,523 100 percent manmade 702 677 675 737 Blends 1,290 1,279 1,307 1,405 Percent Cotton's share of fibers 78.7 79.0 78.7 78.5 Manmade: 1,000 pounds Total consumed by mills 1/ 118,098 93,047 119,947 114,684 Total since August 1 1/ 1,245,192 1,338,239 119,947 114,684 Daily rate 5,368 4,431 5,215 5,213 Noncellulosic staple 5,070 4,209 4,911 4,922 Cellulosic staple 298 222 304 291 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Adjusted to calendar month. 2/ SA = seasonally adjusted. Note: An upward revision by the Census Bureau for August-May of approximately 1 percent is not reflected in these tables. Monthly detail will be released at a later date by the Census Bureau. FIBER EXPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000 1999 ----------------------------- Item May Jun Jul Jul ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb bales Upland exports 605 449 431 309 Total since August 1 5,076 5,525 5,955 4,057 Sales for next season 191 503 509 368 Total since August 1 901 1,404 1,913 1,637 ELS exports 54.1 59.1 48.2 20.1 Total since August 1 339.6 398.6 446.8 287.7 Sales for next season 40.9 20.0 36.8 43.6 Total since August 1 134.9 154.9 191.7 136.4 Manmade: Million pounds Raw fiber exports 95.4 104.9 87.1 72.0 Noncellulosic 87.7 96.2 79.0 69.6 Cellulosic 7.7 8.7 8.1 2.4 Total since January 1 471.1 576.0 663.1 553.1 Wool and Mohair: 1,000 pounds Raw wool exports, clean 923.0 791.1 606.7 286.8 Total since January 1 2,396.1 3,187.2 3,793.9 1,641.8 Wool top exports 448.0 517.4 890.8 514.5 Total since January 1 2,088.6 2,606.0 3,496.8 3,439.0 Mohair exports, clean 350.7 106.0 461.1 255.6 Total since January 1 1,067.5 1,173.5 1,634.6 2,161.9 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FIBER PRICES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000 1999 ---------------------------- Item Jul Aug Sep Sep ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cents per pound Domestic cotton prices: Adjusted World Price 45.51 46.97 47.86 35.31 Oct'2000 futures 57.95 62.24 63.42 56.90 Dec'2000 futures 60.19 64.30 64.37 57.25 Upland spot 41-34 55.13 59.33 60.62 48.39 Pima spot 03-46 88.79 91.37 92.30 82.50 Avg. price received by: Upland producers 49.10 51.30 49.00 46.20 Mill delivered: Cotton Actual 60.72 64.60 66.80 55.98 Raw fiber equivalent 67.47 71.78 74.22 62.20 Rayon staple Actual 98.00 98.00 98.00 97.00 Raw fiber equivalent 102.08 102.08 102.08 101.04 Polyester staple Actual 58.00 58.00 58.00 53.00 Raw fiber equivalent 60.42 60.42 60.42 55.21 Price ratios Percent Cotton/rayon 66.1 70.3 72.7 61.6 Cotton/polyester 111.7 118.8 122.9 112.7 Northern Europe cotton quotes: Cents per pound A Index 58.40 60.93 61.55 49.26 Memphis Territory NQ 67.95 67.38 56.30 California/Arizona 63.44 70.10 69.56 58.80 B Index 53.49 NQ 56.78 NQ Orleans/Texas 54.44 62.60 61.56 50.30 Wool prices (clean): Dollars per pound U.S. 56's 0.55 0.55 0.52 0.55 Australian 56's 1/ 1.32 1.29 1.28 1.21 U.S. 60's 0.80 0.77 0.77 0.79 Australian 60's 1/ 1.43 1.38 1.37 1.26 U.S. 64's 1.25 1.20 1.07 1.05 Australian 64's 1/ 1.55 1.51 1.49 1.39 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- NQ = No quotes. NA = Not available. 1/ In bond, Charleston, SC. TEXTILE TRADE ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000 1999 ---------------------------- Item May Jun Jul Jul ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Imports: 1,000 pounds 1/ Yarn, thread, and fabric 287,316 270,875 246,708 236,936 Cotton 126,423 120,548 110,585 100,891 Linen 20,315 14,933 11,285 16,025 Wool 5,316 5,071 4,072 4,591 Silk 969 1,028 1,017 843 Manmade 134,293 129,295 119,749 114,586 Apparel 689,510 831,068 884,958 795,893 Cotton 432,169 513,042 520,798 476,504 Linen 15,757 19,474 22,054 18,356 Wool 16,374 23,828 33,763 28,693 Silk 12,497 12,282 13,951 11,498 Manmade 212,713 262,442 294,392 260,842 House furnishings 73,977 78,278 78,843 67,063 Cotton 51,945 55,703 56,441 49,656 Linen 1,612 1,329 1,250 378 Wool 384 349 309 172 Silk 154 146 131 58 Manmade 19,882 20,751 20,712 16,799 Floor coverings 42,441 43,598 37,741 33,700 Cotton 5,544 5,249 5,164 5,050 Linen 6,827 7,172 6,511 5,248 Wool 12,038 13,067 10,853 9,985 Silk 786 683 579 603 Manmade 17,246 17,427 14,634 12,814 Total imports 2/ 1,102,230 1,233,294 1,258,752 1,142,543 Cotton 621,419 699,352 697,250 636,884 Linen 44,581 42,954 41,179 40,052 Wool 34,214 42,527 50,009 43,744 Silk 14,406 14,141 15,681 13,003 Manmade 387,609 434,320 454,632 408,860 Exports: 1,000 pounds 1/ Yarn, thread, and fabric 219,898 247,907 219,835 169,442 Cotton 84,203 96,913 89,550 67,908 Linen 6,132 6,502 5,809 4,594 Wool 5,647 5,921 4,542 3,614 Silk 2,169 3,891 3,242 1,891 Manmade 121,747 134,680 116,692 91,435 Apparel 166,141 205,309 174,482 149,289 Cotton 103,449 127,133 103,138 90,215 Linen 2,271 2,552 2,649 1,777 Wool 8,397 10,182 8,510 6,334 Silk 4,536 5,542 3,873 3,726 Manmade 47,488 59,900 56,312 47,237 House furnishings 6,973 6,830 6,041 5,754 Cotton 4,159 4,083 3,603 3,240 Linen 197 196 133 189 Wool 60 62 43 51 Silk 99 91 55 85 Manmade 2,458 2,398 2,207 2,189 Floor coverings 35,221 36,311 32,328 31,923 Cotton 2,614 3,016 2,819 2,719 Linen 1,616 1,841 1,833 1,550 Wool 3,312 3,432 2,724 2,651 Silk 91 107 84 81 Manmade 27,588 27,915 24,868 24,922 Total exports 2/ 428,487 496,583 433,011 356,751 Cotton 194,495 231,216 199,170 164,180 Linen 10,222 11,099 10,429 8,124 Wool 17,429 19,610 15,836 12,669 Silk 6,895 9,630 7,254 5,783 Manmade 199,447 225,028 200,322 165,996 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Includes headgear. U.S. COTTON TEXTILE IMPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000 1999 --------------------------- Item May Jun Jul Jul ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 pounds 1/ North America 269,130 290,496 277,453 256,808 Canada 24,738 22,923 19,910 18,900 Costa Rica 10,717 11,797 10,133 10,635 Dominican Republic 22,424 25,909 24,260 23,475 El Salvador 21,054 24,289 24,004 18,783 Guatemala 10,822 16,076 14,586 12,688 Haiti 4,533 4,093 4,111 4,091 Honduras 38,522 40,740 40,657 35,247 Jamaica 2,913 3,177 2,668 4,676 Mexico 128,461 134,684 130,730 122,928 Nicaragua 4,667 6,563 6,104 4,993 South America 13,732 14,838 14,097 11,127 Argentina 54 9 5 27 Brazil 5,555 5,773 5,789 2,987 Chile 30 101 30 37 Colombia 3,784 3,913 3,638 3,934 Peru 3,570 4,312 4,046 3,641 Europe 46,725 51,446 49,032 41,654 Estonia 901 548 470 534 France 671 759 760 668 Germany 1,121 1,304 1,155 896 Italy 4,281 4,557 5,245 4,274 Portugal 4,183 6,521 7,337 6,046 Russia 3,830 3,670 3,467 1,152 Spain 1,252 1,143 1,415 1,182 Turkey 22,310 23,827 20,849 20,347 United Kingdom 1,259 1,424 1,797 1,657 Asia 274,556 321,286 334,564 308,460 Bahrain 3,281 2,904 3,954 1,353 Bangladesh 17,254 23,220 24,358 25,540 China 35,984 39,892 42,530 44,228 Hong Kong 28,622 34,609 33,990 33,783 India 31,907 34,758 37,752 33,230 Indonesia 13,165 15,945 17,010 16,811 Israel 3,125 4,296 4,250 3,319 Japan 1,696 1,437 1,679 1,426 Macao 4,943 7,178 7,527 6,390 Malaysia 6,399 7,243 7,439 8,161 Nepal 2,398 2,280 1,758 2,014 Oman 1,649 1,970 2,167 1,859 Pakistan 46,335 48,897 51,470 38,492 Philippines 9,983 12,401 11,723 15,068 Qatar 780 1,692 1,503 1,764 Singapore 2,272 2,713 2,564 3,379 South Korea 10,768 12,066 11,109 11,251 Sri Lanka 6,419 8,312 9,969 10,218 Taiwan 12,860 15,766 15,727 16,077 Thailand 13,452 15,690 16,557 14,446 U Arab Em 3,729 3,843 3,319 2,879 Oceania 1,967 1,709 3,092 1,983 Australia 1,073 636 1,477 980 Fiji 682 644 1,266 655 Africa 15,309 19,577 19,013 16,853 Egypt 6,454 7,997 7,643 6,831 Lesotho 1,825 2,546 2,996 2,815 Mauritius 2,096 2,625 1,874 2,124 Morocco 961 1,192 1,425 798 South Africa 1,638 2,484 2,175 1,837 Tunisia 80 189 156 121 World 2/ 538,803 699,352 697,250 636,884 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding. U.S. COTTON TEXTILE EXPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000 1999 ----------------------------- Country May Jun Jul Jul ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 pounds 1/ North America 176,666 211,394 178,825 148,599 Canada 28,473 29,700 21,034 21,945 Costa Rica 9,170 12,909 7,880 9,491 Dominican Republic 18,771 19,536 17,143 15,467 El Salvador 11,216 15,742 11,867 3,710 Guatemala 3,165 3,005 3,733 3,145 Haiti 1,527 3,918 2,671 2,514 Honduras 21,951 30,506 25,786 16,806 Jamaica 1,466 3,176 2,254 2,402 Mexico 79,092 91,117 85,025 71,704 South America 4,343 3,976 5,656 3,484 Argentina 149 103 141 155 Brazil 645 556 375 388 Chile 692 638 1,283 440 Colombia 1,314 1,410 2,325 1,258 Peru 45 52 51 66 Venezuela 1,171 917 982 918 Europe 5,978 7,089 6,436 4,610 Belgium 1,850 2,428 1,754 396 France 283 718 335 338 Germany 516 656 982 610 Ireland 109 152 57 46 Italy 293 453 193 221 Netherlands 328 459 785 656 United Kingdom 1,681 1,435 1,550 1,578 Asia 6,574 7,499 7,073 6,178 China 298 405 228 177 Hong Kong 1,086 924 784 786 Israel 326 302 379 654 Japan 2,690 2,986 3,045 2,493 Philippines 258 503 259 237 Saudi Arabia 258 362 277 286 Singapore 322 295 370 255 South Korea 352 285 449 394 Taiwan 238 184 185 124 U Arab Em 148 124 170 159 Oceania 577 732 642 662 Australia 468 564 522 525 New Zealand 67 61 68 89 Africa 358 526 538 648 Egypt 10 76 71 6 Ghana 7 18 27 40 Ivory Coast 11 2 0 4 Nigeria 62 81 81 292 South Africa 51 53 123 109 World 2/ 194,495 231,216 199,170 164,180 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding. ACREAGE, YIELD, AND PRODUCTION ESTIMATES FOR 2000 ------------------------------------------------------------------- State/ Region Harvested Yield Production ------------------------------------------------------------------- Lbs./ 1,000 acres harvested acre 1,000 bales Upland: Alabama 540 489 550 Georgia 1,300 598 1,620 N. Carolina 930 723 1,400 S. Carolina 310 604 390 Virginia 109 700 159 Southeast 3,189 620 4,119 Arkansas 950 728 1,440 Louisiana 700 631 920 Mississippi 1,280 638 1,700 Missouri 400 696 580 Tennessee 595 565 700 Delta 3,925 653 5,340 Oklahoma 200 444 185 Texas 4,800 440 4,400 Southwest 5,000 440 4,585 Arizona 279 1,273 740 California 765 1,286 2,050 New Mexico 85 734 130 West 1,129 1,241 2,920 Other 1/ 129 428 115 Total Upland 13,372 613 17,079 Pima: Arizona 6 848 11 California 144 1,200 360 New Mexico 6 680 9 Texas 16 810 27 Total Pima 172 1,133 406 Total All 13,544 620 17,485 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA's October Crop Production report. 1/ Includes Florida and Kansas. END_OF_FILE