COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK December 13, 2000 December 2000, ERS-CWS-1100 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board -------------------------------------------------------------------------- COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK is issued electronically 10 times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no printed copies available. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS U.S. 2000 Cotton Production Lowered U.S. Demand To Offset Production; Stocks Unchanged Foreign 2000/01 Production and Consumption About Unchanged in December Offsetting Changes in Foreign Production Offsetting Changes in 2000/01 Foreign Consumption Textile Trade Declines in September U.S. 2000 Cotton Production Lowered The December Crop Production report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimated the 2000 U.S. cotton crop at 17.4 million bales, 100,000 bales below last month but 400,000 above 1999/2000. Upland production is forecast at 17 million bales, while the extra-long staple (ELS) crop is projected at a 5-year low of 410,000 bales. During the previous 20 years, the December forecast has been below final production 11 times and above 9 times. And, past differences between the December forecast and the final production estimate indicate that chances are two out of three for the 2000 U.S. cotton crop to range between 17.1 and 17.7 million bales. Meanwhile, the Cotton Ginnings report indicated that 13.7 million running bales had been ginned as of December 1, compared with about 13.4 million at this time last year. Compared with last season, upland production is projected to rise in three of the four regions of the Cottonbelt, while the Southwest crop is expected to fall below a year ago. In the Southwest, upland production is forecast at nearly 4.3 million bales, nearly 1 million below last season. As a result of this seasons drought, the Southwest yield is expected to reach only 410 pounds per harvested acre, the lowest since 1995. In the Southeast, the upland crop is estimated to increase 17 percent from 1999/2000 to nearly 4.2 million bales, with Georgia and North Carolina accounting for over 3 million bales of the total. The average yield for the region in 2000 is projected at 629 pounds per harvested acre, 100 pounds above last season, but slightly below the 10-year average for the Southeast. For the Delta region, upland production is projected to approach 5.4 million bales, or 5 percent above 1999. The increase this season is the result of larger area, as a 5-pound decrease in yield in the region is reported. While the Delta yield of 662 pounds per harvested acre is below the 5-year average, the production estimate equals the average for the last 5 years. In the West, upland output is expected to approach 3.1 million bales, the highest in 3 years. Larger area and an estimated record yield of 1,305 pounds per harvested acre in the region pushed production above 3 million bales once again and close to the 10-year average. In addition to upland, ELS production in the West is expected to decline dramatically (40 percent) as California producers moved area out of ELS cotton this season. California continues to dominate ELS production and is projected to account for 88 percent of the ELS crop in 2000, similar to last season. Total planted area to cotton remains estimated at 15.5 million acres and abandonment is projected at a relatively high 13 percent. As a result, cotton area to be harvested is forecast at 13.5 million acres, slightly above last season and the highest since 1995. Based on the harvested area, the national yield is estimated at 619 pounds per acre, 12 pounds above 1999 but below the 5-year average of 629 pounds. U.S. Demand To Offset Production; Stocks Unchanged U.S. cotton demand in 2000/01 is forecast to marginally exceed production, leaving stocks virtually unchanged from the previous season. Based on the December production forecast and carryin stocks estimated at 3.9 million bales, total U.S. cotton supplies for 2000/01 are forecast to reach 21.4 million, 400,000 above last season. However, total use of U.S. cotton is also projected to increase 500,000 bales this season to 17.5 million, 3 percent above 1999/2000 and slightly above the 5-year average of 17.4 million bales. For 2000/01, U.S. raw cotton exports are projected to rebound to their highest level since 1995/96. The current forecast--at 7.6 million bales--is 850,000 bales above last season. Supporting U.S. exports this season are the expected record world cotton use and the decreases from 1999/2000 forecast for foreign production and stocks. In addition, the larger U.S. supplies are aiding this season's expectations. As of the end of November, the Export Sales report indicated that 4.5 million bales have been committed this season, with 1.6 million shipped. This compares with commitments of 4.9 million bales a year ago and shipments of 1.2 million. Although shipments are ahead of last season's pace, U.S. exports need to average about 175,000 bales per week to reach the current estimate. Based on the current projections of U.S. and world trade, the U.S. share of global exports is estimated at 28 percent, up from about 25 percent in 1999/2000. For 2000/01, U.S. cotton mill use is projected to decline slightly once again. Mill use is currently estimated at 9.9 million bales, 3 percent below the final 1999/2000 estimate of 10.2 million. While U.S. demand for all fibers is expected to grow slowly in 2000--after 2 consecutive years of decline--U.S. cotton mill demand is losing ground. The continued growth of U.S. cotton textile and apparel imports has placed tremendous pressure on the U.S. spinning industry over the last several years and is expected to continue this season. In addition, the slowdown in the exceptional growth seen in the U.S. economy over the last several years is expected to play a role in the amount of raw cotton consumed by U.S. mills. While the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) has increased cotton textile trade over the past 6 years, the strength of the dollar has also encouraged extensive foreign shipments to the United States, leading to the third consecutive year in which the raw-fiber equivalent of cotton textile imports exceeds the quantity consumed by domestic mills. For calendar 2000, cotton textile imports could reach the equivalent of 16 million bales. Based on these U.S. cotton supply and demand projections, ending stocks for 2000/01 are projected to remain near the beginning level of 3.9 million bales. As a result of larger use, the implied stocks-to-use ratio for the season is currently near 22 percent, marginally below last season's 23 percent. Foreign 2000/01 Production and Consumption About Unchanged in December Foreign cotton production in 2000/01 is forecast at 69.2 million bales, virtually the same as forecast a month earlier, and 1.6 percent lower than in 1999/2000. Foreign consumption in 2000/01 is forecast at 82.4 million bales, virtually the same as forecast a month earlier, and 0.9 percent higher than in 1999/2000. World trade is forecast slightly higher in 2000/01 than a month earlier--at 26.9 million bales--but is forecast to be 1.3 percent lower than in 1999/2000. World ending stocks in 2000/01 are forecast slightly higher than a month earlier, as are foreign ending stocks. Both world and foreign ending stocks are increased nearly 1 percentage point as a share of consumption this month-- from 38 to 39 percent. World 2000/01 ending stocks are forecast at 35.7 million bales, and foreign ending stocks at 31.8 million. Offsetting Changes in Foreign Production While there was little total month-to-month change in the 2000/01 foreign production forecast, there are a number of significant offsetting changes in individual countries. Expected smaller crops in India, Uzbekistan, Australia, and Africa are offset by better production prospects for Syria, Turkey, Brazil, and Argentina. There are no changes in the forecasts for China and Pakistan. USDA's forecast for Indian cotton production is reduced 400,000 bales from the month before in December, to 11.9 million bales. Arrivals in India are flagging, and previously optimistic area expectations are being downgraded. USDA's attache is now forecasting a decline in India's cotton area in 2000/01 compared with the year before. Until recently, most industry estimates suggested area was expected to increase. The cotton prices in India during 1999/2000 were more consistent with a decline in area during 2000/01 than an increase: cotton prices in India declined about 3.5 percent from the year before during the 1999/2000 harvest (the average percent decline of India's four main cotton varieties), while the market price of rice rose 6 percent during the marketing year. The direction of change in India's average cotton price has successfully predicted the direction of change in India's cotton crop during 5 out of the last 6 years. The exception, 1996/97, may have been influenced by 2 years of extraordinary price increases preceding the slight decline in 1995/96. India's output during 2000/01, on the other hand, is likely to be influenced by price declines in both 1999/2000 and 1998/99. Thus, with a second year of poor precipitation in Gujarat--rather than the previously expected return to normal precipitation--rebounding yields in Gujarat cannot be expected to offset area declines elsewhere in India, and India's cotton crop is likely to be smaller than the year before in 2000/01. Uzbekistan's crop forecast is reduced 200,000 bales to 4.3 million, and Uzbekistan's output is now expected to be 900,000 bales lower than in 1999/2000. Rainfall during harvest damaged the crop more than previously expected, and Uzbekistan's Government announced the completion of the harvest with only 3 million tons of seed cotton harvested. Late season rainfall compounded the damage the crop suffered earlier in the year due to reduced irrigation supplies. Rainfall also reduced Australia's 2000/01 production outlook by 100,000 bales, as flooding damaged fields, necessitating replanting in some cases, and damaging yield prospects in others. In Africa, USDA's estimate of Franc Zone production in 2000/01 is lower for the fifth consecutive month, as additional reports of weather damage arrive and indications grow that farmers elected to divert resources to other crops. Mali's expected output is reduced 100,000 bales, and it has become evident that farmer dissatisfaction also put a dent in Chad's output, forecast 50,000 bales lower than in November. Larger output is forecast for Syria and Turkey following optimistic government reports from these countries, and Syria's 2000/01 forecast is increased 325,000 bales, and Turkey's 200,000 bales. Evidence of larger than previously expected plantings in Mato Grosso resulted in a 300,000-bale increase in Brazil's 2000/01 crop, now forecast to be 19 percent larger than in 1999/2000. Similarly, Argentina's planted area estimate for 2000/01 is also increased--following improved weather--and expected 2000/01 output in Argentina increased by 75,000 bales. In Pakistan, the pace of gin arrivals--which were 17 percent ahead of a year ago as of December 1--remained consistent with a 2000/01 crop only slightly below its 1999/2000 level. While the extent to which this year's arrivals exceed last year's has been shrinking, and the repeal of the 15 percent sales tax has likely boosted reported gin arrivals this year, the trend in 2000/01 arrivals is consistent with only a slight decline in production compared with 1999/2000. At 8.3 million bales, Pakistan is expected to produce 3 percent less cotton than in 1999/2000. This estimate is consistent with both a falling pace of recorded gin arrivals for the rest of the season, and a falling share of unrecorded production compared with last year, and is the same as USDA's November estimate. Offsetting Changes in 2000/01 Foreign Consumption While USDA's December forecast of 2000/01 foreign consumption is nearly the same as its November forecast--170,000 bales lower, at 82.4 million bales--there were a number of largely offsetting increases and reductions. Less optimistic prospects for textile trade in India and Mexico resulted in a 200,000-bale reduction in expected 2000/01 consumption in each country. Historical revisions for Brazil and Russia suggested 2000/01 should be forecast from a higher base, and 2000/01 consumption is 150,000 bales higher for Brazil in December than in November, and 100,000 bales higher in Russia. There is no change in China's 2000/01 consumption, since reports of rising yarn stocks there suggest that yarn output will not be able to sustain strong year-to-year gains in coming months. Mexico's consumption reduction to 2.3 million bales in 2000/01 leaves expected consumption 100,000 bales below its 1999/2000 level, due mainly to the impact of the strong peso on textile trade. This would be the first annual decline in Mexico's cotton use since 1992/93. Mexico's imports in 2000/01 are still expected to be above year-ago levels, due to a reduced Mexican crop, but the forecast is 200,000 bales below its November level. While revisions to 2000/01 foreign consumption in December are largely offsetting, 1999/2000 foreign consumption is estimated 630,000 bales higher in December than in November. India, Turkey, Brazil, Russia, and Indonesia all consumed more cotton during 1999/2000 than USDA estimated in November, and only Burkina Faso is revised downwards. Foreign 1999/2000 cotton consumption is now estimated at 81.7 million bales, 9 percent above its 1998/99 level. This annual rate of increase slightly exceeds the 8.5- percent level achieved during 1986/87. Textile Trade Declines in September Textile imports fell to 1.3 billion pounds in September, nearly 10 percent below a month earlier but 9 percent above a year ago. Imports of all major fibers and all major end-use categories declined in September compared with a month earlier. Cotton textile imports, at 658 million pounds, were down 11 percent from August. However, cotton imports were 8 percent above September 1999 shipments. On a regional basis, most of the September decline occurred from countries in Asia and North America. Textile exports in September also dropped from the previous month to 470 million pounds, a 5-percent decline. Exports of all major fibers were lower than August. Also, decreases in all major end- use categories occurred in September. Cotton textile exports, at 214 million pounds, were 6 percent below a month earlier, but 27 percent above a year ago. U.S. cotton textile exports to North America declined to 194 million pounds. Overall, the September textile trade deficit was 784 million pounds, with cotton accounting for 57 percent of the total. The September deficit was slightly above a year earlier when it reached 775 million pounds. The deficit for the first 9 months of 2000 was 6.3 billion pounds, compared with 5.8 billion a year ago. The cotton textile trade deficit reached 3.8 billion pounds during January-September, up 12 percent from 1999. The next Cotton and Wool Outlook (CWS-0101) will be released on February 9, 2001. Information Contacts: Leslie Meyer (U.S. Cotton and Textiles) LMEYER@ERS.USDA.GOV (202) 694-5307 Stephen MacDonald (Foreign Cotton) STEPHENM@ERS.USDA.GOV (202) 694-5305 Robert Skinner (Textiles and Wool) RSKINNER@ERS.USDA.GOV (202) 694-5313 U.S. COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2000/01 ----------------------------- Item 1999/2000 Oct Nov Dec ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Upland: Million acres Planted 14.584 15.350 15.350 15.350 Harvested 13.138 13.372 13.347 13.327 Pounds Yield/harvested acre 595 613 615 612 Million 480-lb bales Beginning stocks 3.836 3.672 3.672 3.672 Production 16.294 17.079 17.094 16.989 Total supply 1/ 20.183 20.806 20.821 20.716 Mill use 10.103 9.960 9.865 9.765 Exports 6.303 7.125 7.125 7.125 Total use 16.406 17.085 16.990 16.890 Ending stocks 3.672 3.729 3.814 3.820 Percent Stocks-to-use ratio 22.4 21.8 22.4 22.6 Extra-long staple: 1,000 acres Planted 290 182 182 182 Harvested 287 172 172 172 Pounds Yield/harvested acre 1,128 1,133 1,160 1,144 1,000 480-lb bales Beginning stocks 103 250 250 250 Production 674 406 416 410 Total supply 1/ 821 676 686 680 Mill use 137 140 135 135 Exports 447 475 475 475 Total use 584 615 610 610 Ending stocks 250 71 86 80 Percent Stocks-to-use ratio 42.8 11.5 14.1 13.1 ------------------------------------------------------------------- -- Based on USDA estimates. 1/ Includes imports. WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES -------------------------------------------------------------------- -- 2000/01 ----------------------------- Item 1999/2000 Oct Nov Dec --------------------------------------------------------- ------------- Supply: Million 480-lb bales Beginning stocks World 44.89 40.47 40.64 41.15 Foreign 40.95 36.55 36.72 37.23 Production World 87.36 86.90 86.68 86.63 Foreign 70.39 69.41 69.17 69.23 Imports World 28.28 27.22 27.17 27.17 Foreign 28.18 27.15 27.10 27.10 Use: Mill use World 91.90 92.70 92.53 92.26 Foreign 81.66 82.60 82.53 82.36 Exports World 27.21 26.75 26.69 26.85 Foreign 20.46 19.15 19.09 19.25 Ending stocks World 41.15 34.99 35.10 35.69 Foreign 37.23 31.19 31.20 31.79 Stocks-to-use ratio Percent World 44.8 37.7 37.9 38.9 Foreign 45.6 37.8 37.8 38.6 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA estimates. FIBER SUPPLY ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000 1999 ---------------------------- Item Aug Sep Oct Oct ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb bales Ginnings 864 2,487 6,114 5,685 Imports since August 1 1.4 1.7 NA 50.0 Stocks, beginning 3,922 3,437 4,784 4,631 At mills 526 504 487 559 Public storage 3,529 3,059 4,235 3,993 CCC stocks 240 417 782 591 Manmade: Million pounds Production 909.6 830.2 878.5 886.4 Noncellulosic 880.8 802.7 848.5 863.7 Cellulosic 28.8 27.5 30.0 22.7 Total since January 1 6,970.2 7,800.4 8,678.9 8,921.3 2000 1999 ------------------------- Jul Aug Sep Sep ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Million pounds Raw fiber imports 131.8 128.7 119.8 124.7 Noncellulosic 126.3 123.6 115.3 119.3 Cellulosic 5.5 5.1 4.5 5.4 Total since January 1 982.0 1,110.7 1,230.5 1,340.3 Wool and Mohair: 1,000 pounds Raw wool imports, clean 3,151 3,653 4,282 2,560 48's-and-finer 1,725 1,533 1,907 1,526 Not-finer-than-46's 1,426 2,120 2,375 1,034 Total since January 1 27,947 31,600 35,882 38,442 Wool top imports 432 864 352 96 Total since January 1 3,574 4,438 4,790 4,886 Mohair imports, clean 0 0 0 0 Total since January 1 4 4 4 2 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NA = Not available. COTTON SYSTEM FIBER CONSUMPTION ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000 1999 -------------------------- Item Aug Sep Oct Oct --------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb bales All consumed by mills 1/ 920 804 847 861 Total since August 1 1/ 920 1,724 2,571 2,599 SA annual rate 2/ 10,030 9,808 9,584 10,225 SA daily rate 2/ 38.4 37.6 36.7 39.2 Daily rate 40.0 38.3 38.5 41.0 Upland consumed by mills 1/ 907 794 835 849 Total since August 1 1/ 907 1,701 2,536 2,562 SA daily rate 2/ 37.9 37.1 36.2 38.7 Daily rate 39.5 37.8 38.0 40.5 Spindles in place 4,592 4,566 4,544 4,887 Active spindles 4,396 4,369 4,330 4,574 100 percent cotton 2,409 2,398 2,352 2,409 100 percent manmade 685 682 660 744 Blends 1,302 1,289 1,318 1,421 Percent Cotton's share of fibers 78.5 79.5 78.8 78.7 Manmade: 1,000 pounds Total consumed by mills 1/ 120,976 99,756 109,671 111,823 Total since August 1 1/ 120,976 220,732 330,403 339,492 Daily rate 5,260 4,750 4,985 5,325 Noncellulosic staple 4,951 4,481 4,712 4,984 Cellulosic staple 309 269 273 341 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Adjusted to calendar month. 2/ SA = seasonally adjusted. FIBER EXPORTS ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000 1999 ----------------------------- Item Jul Aug Sep Sep ---------------------------- ------------------------------------------ Cotton: 1,000 480-lb bales Upland exports 431 393 313 133 Total since August 1 5,955 393 707 369 Sales for next season 509 74 31 14 Total since August 1 1,913 74 104 122 ELS exports 48.2 36.8 32.9 13.2 Total since August 1 446.8 36.8 59.7 30.6 Sales for next season 36.8 3.2 1.2 0.5 Total since August 1 191.7 3.2 4.5 3.0 Manmade: Million pounds Raw fiber exports 87.1 92.4 100.4 83.6 Noncellulosic 79.0 85.2 91.9 79.2 Cellulosic 8.1 7.2 8.5 3.4 Total since January 1 663.1 755.5 855.9 644.1 Wool and Mohair: 1,000 pounds Raw wool exports, clean 606.7 415.3 659.0 536.2 Total since January 1 3,793.9 4,209.2 4,868.2 4,306.4 Wool top exports 890.8 1,108.0 461.6 491.3 Total since January 1 3,496.8 4,604.8 5,066.4 5,821.1 Mohair exports, clean 461.1 389.6 441.4 531.2 Total since January 1 1,634.6 2,024.2 2,465.6 3,981.3 ----------------------- ----------------------------------------------- FIBER PRICES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000 1999 ---------------------------- Item Sep Oct Nov Nov ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cents per pound Domestic cotton prices: Adjusted World Price 47.86 46.98 49.84 32.18 Upland spot 41-34 60.62 60.54 62.16 48.12 Pima spot 03-46 92.30 98.18 103.00 82.35 Avg. price received by: Upland producers 50.60 55.90 58.20 44.30 Mill delivered: Cotton Actual 66.80 66.04 68.25 55.88 Raw fiber equivalent 74.22 73.38 75.83 62.09 Rayon staple Actual 98.00 98.00 98.00 97.00 Raw fiber equivalent 102.08 102.08 102.08 101.04 Polyester staple Actual 58.00 59.00 59.00 53.00 Raw fiber equivalent 60.42 61.46 61.46 55.21 Price ratios Percent Cotton/rayon 72.7 71.9 74.3 61.4 Cotton/polyester 122.9 119.4 123.4 112.5 Northern Europe cotton quotes: Cents per pound A Index 61.55 60.90 64.07 46.13 Memphis Territory 67.38 66.69 68.95 54.31 California/Arizona 69.56 67.81 70.50 54.31 B Index 56.78 57.93 60.72 42.37 Orleans/Texas 61.56 59.13 60.35 43.00 Wool prices (clean): Dollars per pound U.S. 56's 0.52 0.50 0.48 0.45 Australian 56's 1/ 1.28 1.25 1.20 1.20 U.S. 60's 0.77 0.77 0.77 0.85 Australian 60's 1/ 1.37 1.37 1.31 1.29 U.S. 64's 1.07 1.05 1.05 1.10 Australian 64's 1/ 1.49 1.46 1.40 1.43 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- NQ = No quotes. NA = Not available. 1/ In bond, Charleston, SC. TEXTILE TRADE ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000 1999 ---------------------------- Item Jul Aug Sep Sep ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Imports: 1,000 pounds 1/ Yarn, thread, and fabric 246,708 267,779 244,835 238,717 Cotton 110,585 118,499 107,151 102,268 Linen 11,285 20,035 18,074 20,471 Wool 4,072 4,298 4,809 3,924 Silk 1,017 1,057 951 837 Manmade 119,749 123,890 113,850 111,217 Apparel 884,958 976,165 877,805 802,165 Cotton 520,798 547,897 485,277 447,005 Linen 22,054 25,933 23,377 20,647 Wool 33,763 43,273 41,305 35,976 Silk 13,951 14,608 14,243 12,945 Manmade 294,392 344,454 313,603 285,592 House furnishings 78,843 93,121 83,733 73,375 Cotton 56,441 63,573 55,731 52,016 Linen 1,250 1,686 1,726 625 Wool 309 557 613 296 Silk 131 219 193 112 Manmade 20,712 27,086 25,470 20,326 Floor coverings 37,741 43,718 39,154 31,836 Cotton 5,164 5,344 5,735 4,128 Linen 6,511 7,294 6,948 4,736 Wool 10,853 12,713 11,013 8,781 Silk 579 643 707 570 Manmade 14,634 17,724 14,751 13,621 Total imports 2/ 1,258,752 1,390,721 1,254,251 1,154,414 Cotton 697,250 739,525 657,708 609,084 Linen 41,179 54,996 50,175 46,555 Wool 50,009 61,395 58,204 49,291 Silk 15,681 16,530 16,095 14,465 Manmade 454,632 518,275 472,068 435,019 Exports: 1,000 pounds 1/ Yarn, thread, and fabric 219,835 254,601 248,327 193,571 Cotton 89,550 104,860 100,683 74,683 Linen 5,809 6,962 6,982 5,629 Wool 4,542 6,056 5,208 6,056 Silk 3,242 4,058 3,525 2,183 Manmade 116,692 132,665 131,929 105,020 Apparel 174,482 193,598 175,891 142,432 Cotton 103,138 115,553 105,682 86,582 Linen 2,649 2,546 2,577 1,994 Wool 8,510 8,812 8,333 5,838 Silk 3,873 4,722 3,943 3,372 Manmade 56,312 61,965 55,356 44,646 House furnishings 6,041 7,741 8,099 7,744 Cotton 3,603 4,732 4,796 4,454 Linen 133 245 231 199 Wool 43 58 98 82 Silk 55 74 86 92 Manmade 2,207 2,632 2,888 2,917 Floor coverings 32,328 41,178 37,392 35,180 Cotton 2,819 3,367 2,903 2,445 Linen 1,833 1,850 1,746 1,688 Wool 2,724 3,156 2,859 3,655 Silk 84 80 72 80 Manmade 24,868 32,725 29,812 27,312 Total exports 2/ 433,011 497,024 469,998 379,193 Cotton 199,170 228,238 214,152 168,251 Linen 10,429 11,612 11,545 9,518 Wool 15,836 18,100 16,513 15,642 Silk 7,254 8,933 7,626 5,727 Manmade 200,322 230,141 220,162 180,055 --------------------------------------------------------------------- - 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Includes headgear. U.S. COTTON TEXTILE IMPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000 1999 --------------------------- Item Jul Aug Sep Sep ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 pounds 1/ North America 277,453 292,089 262,971 247,797 Canada 19,910 22,251 24,203 23,207 Costa Rica 10,133 11,743 9,532 11,297 Dominican Republic 24,260 25,371 21,386 22,335 El Salvador 24,004 22,619 20,912 18,343 Guatemala 14,586 13,800 12,937 11,155 Haiti 4,111 4,245 4,257 4,216 Honduras 40,657 42,626 34,197 35,042 Jamaica 2,668 2,903 2,137 3,678 Mexico 130,730 140,576 127,945 113,895 Nicaragua 6,104 5,661 5,175 4,180 South America 14,097 12,816 13,655 10,411 Argentina 5 17 8 18 Brazil 5,789 4,252 4,515 3,066 Chile 30 51 177 1 Colombia 3,638 4,172 4,608 3,374 Peru 4,046 3,828 3,794 3,543 Europe 49,032 53,167 44,424 39,412 Estonia 470 215 573 718 France 760 638 582 576 Germany 1,155 1,254 1,167 1,245 Italy 5,245 4,595 3,051 2,572 Portugal 7,337 9,052 4,873 4,755 Russia 3,467 4,041 3,063 1,852 Spain 1,415 1,701 1,649 1,401 Turkey 20,849 22,000 20,064 19,792 United Kingdom 1,797 2,004 2,503 1,512 Asia 334,564 354,938 313,597 293,849 Bahrain 3,954 3,905 2,937 1,470 Bangladesh 24,358 26,654 25,308 21,777 China 42,530 46,637 39,202 44,497 Hong Kong 33,990 32,414 26,159 28,658 India 37,752 36,843 33,480 32,107 Indonesia 17,010 19,948 18,067 16,306 Israel 4,250 4,093 3,579 3,046 Japan 1,679 1,469 1,388 1,269 Macao 7,527 7,246 6,745 5,479 Malaysia 7,439 7,485 7,482 7,122 Nepal 1,758 1,792 1,304 1,733 Oman 2,167 2,048 1,998 1,661 Pakistan 51,470 59,005 53,498 40,505 Philippines 11,723 13,561 11,490 13,185 Qatar 1,503 1,594 2,533 1,621 Singapore 2,564 3,072 2,700 3,163 South Korea 11,109 12,160 10,607 10,588 Sri Lanka 9,969 11,340 8,837 8,124 Taiwan 15,727 17,389 15,342 16,859 Thailand 16,557 17,235 15,296 15,454 U Arab Em 3,319 3,374 3,611 3,118 Oceania 3,092 3,599 3,879 2,477 Australia 1,477 1,290 2,018 1,147 Fiji 1,266 1,917 1,495 956 Africa 19,013 22,916 19,183 15,138 Egypt 7,643 10,049 8,127 6,207 Lesotho 2,996 2,725 2,454 1,968 Mauritius 1,874 2,497 1,878 2,319 Morocco 1,425 1,151 868 660 South Africa 2,175 2,969 3,098 1,707 Tunisia 156 108 189 36 World 2/ 697,250 739,525 657,708 609,084 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding. U.S. COTTON TEXTILE EXPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000 1999 ----------------------------- Country Jul Aug Sep Sep ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 pounds 1/ North America 178,825 207,101 193,893 150,989 Canada 21,034 30,487 27,864 30,207 Costa Rica 7,880 8,654 8,854 7,639 Dominican Republic 17,143 19,772 19,191 12,183 El Salvador 11,867 14,468 11,362 3,771 Guatemala 3,733 4,276 4,609 4,650 Haiti 2,671 3,868 4,664 2,139 Honduras 25,786 28,625 26,466 19,251 Jamaica 2,254 2,073 2,639 2,672 Mexico 85,025 93,233 86,664 66,747 South America 5,656 5,001 5,710 2,787 Argentina 141 161 84 120 Brazil 375 354 510 509 Chile 1,283 744 1,383 287 Colombia 2,325 1,897 1,663 1,088 Peru 51 116 62 95 Venezuela 982 1,387 1,482 538 Europe 6,436 7,043 6,152 6,532 Belgium 1,754 2,628 1,855 1,853 France 335 435 237 378 Germany 982 620 477 753 Ireland 57 127 106 58 Italy 193 412 382 323 Netherlands 785 370 522 360 United Kingdom 1,550 1,576 1,382 1,562 Asia 7,073 7,594 7,115 6,796 China 228 172 198 297 Hong Kong 784 1,368 840 818 Israel 379 474 423 621 Japan 3,045 2,836 3,277 2,855 Philippines 259 197 208 174 Saudi Arabia 277 321 221 257 Singapore 370 334 315 342 South Korea 449 207 282 384 Taiwan 185 255 252 130 U Arab Em 170 292 184 238 Oceania 642 632 634 571 Australia 522 514 459 439 New Zealand 68 65 61 111 Africa 538 867 648 577 Egypt 71 38 51 5 Ghana 27 124 19 62 Ivory Coast 0 9 0 22 Nigeria 81 175 204 115 South Africa 123 160 160 68 World 2/ 199,170 228,238 214,152 168,251 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding. ACREAGE, YIELD, AND PRODUCTION ESTIMATES FOR 2000 ------------------------------------------------------------------- State/ Region Harvested Yield Production ------------------------------------------------------------------- Lbs./ 1,000 acres harvested acre 1,000 bales Upland: Alabama 540 489 550 Georgia 1,300 594 1,610 N. Carolina 930 748 1,450 S. Carolina 290 629 380 Virginia 109 722 164 Southeast 3,169 629 4,154 Arkansas 950 743 1,470 Louisiana 700 627 915 Mississippi 1,280 649 1,730 Missouri 400 648 540 Tennessee 570 606 720 Delta 3,900 662 5,375 Oklahoma 200 420 175 Texas 4,800 410 4,100 Southwest 5,000 410 4,275 Arizona 279 1,273 740 California 765 1,380 2,200 New Mexico 85 734 130 West 1,129 1,305 3,070 Other 1/ 129 428 115 Total Upland 13,327 612 16,989 Pima: Arizona 6 824 10 California 144 1,200 360 New Mexico 6 680 9 Texas 16 930 31 Total Pima 172 1,144 410 Total All 13,499 619 17,399 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA's December Crop Production report. 1/ Includes Florida and Kansas. END_OF_FILE