COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK May 11, 2001 Month 2001 ERS-CWS-0401 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board -------------------------------------------------------------------------- COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK is issued electronically 10 times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no printed copies available. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Summary The first official United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecast for 2001/02 indicates higher U.S. cotton production, exports, and ending stocks. Production is projected at 18.8 million bales, based on average abandonment and yields. Both domestic mill use and exports for 2001/02 are initially forecast at 9 million bales. Although mill use is slightly below the current season, exports are projected to be the highest in 7 years and provide nearly one-third of global cotton trade next season. Despite the largest anticipated U.S. demand in 4 years, cotton stocks are expected to rise to 6.3 million bales, or 35 percent of total use. Foreign production in 2001/02 is expected to rise 4.2 million bales to 74.2 million despite the continuation of a multi-year drought that has damaged irrigation prospects from Iran, through Central Asia, to Pakistan. Cotton prices, particularly in relative terms, improved in a number of countries, and foreign production is expected to reach a 6-year high. Foreign consumption in 2001/02 is expected to increase 1.8 percent, to 84 million bales, as world gross domestic product (GDP) rebounds. Foreign ending stocks are expected to fall slightly, to 30.8 million bales, their lowest since 1994/95. For 2000/01, final U.S. production estimates placed the U.S. cotton crop at 17.19 million bales, down slightly from the previous estimate. Total U.S. cotton demand is currently forecast at 15.6 million bales--domestic mill use at 9.2 million and exports at 6.4 million--8 percent below 1999/2000. Consequently, 2000/01 U.S. ending stocks are estimated to rise significantly from 3.9 million bales in 1999/2000 to 5.5 million. Foreign production in 2000/01 is projected at 70 million bales, 300,000 below Aprils estimate, and 200,000 bales below 1999/2000. Foreign consumption is estimated at 82.5 million bales, about 150,000 above last months estimate, and nearly 1 million bales higher than in 1999/2000. Foreign imports in 2000/01 are projected at 26.7 million bales--down 400,000 from Aprils estimate, and 1.5 million below a year ago--while foreign exports are estimated 160,000 bales higher in May, but still nearly 1 million lower than in 1999/2000. Foreign exports are forecast at 19.6 million bales in 2000/01. Foreign ending stocks are projected at 31.6 million bales in 2000/01, nearly 1 million less than estimated last month, and 5.6 million below 1999/2000. U.S. Production: Cotton Output Projected Higher in 2001/02 With the first official forecast for the 2001 season, USDA projects U.S. cotton production at 18.8 million bales. Based on the March Prospective Plantings report, cotton planted area for the 2001 crop is expected to reach 15.6 million acres, slightly above 2000. Assumptions of average abandonment and yield were also made in reaching the production forecast. Harvested area of 14.2 million acres is based on the previous 10-year average abandonment, weighted by State. Likewise, the national yield forecast of 635 pounds per harvested acre is based on the 1991- 2000 crop yields, weighted by State. If realized, U.S. cotton production in 2001 would rise 1.6 million bales (9 percent) from the final 2000 estimate. As of May 6, U.S. cotton planting progress was running ahead of both last season and the 5-year average. Forty-three percent of the U.S. crop had been planted as of May 6, compared with 35 percent a year ago and an average of 32 percent. Leading the way is California, where plantings were estimated at 95 percent complete, similar to last season and well above the 5-year average. Other States, including those in the Delta region-- Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, and Missouri--and Virginia have also planted a larger percentage than normal of their cotton crop. As of May 6, Texas was reported at 22 percent complete, similar to both last season and the 5-year average. U.S. Production: 2000/01 Cotton Crop Finalized The U.S. cotton crop was finalized in May at 17.19 million bales, 1 percent above 1999/2000. U.S. upland cotton production totaled 16.8 million bales this season, compared with 16.3 million a year ago, with increases reported in each region except the Southwest. In the Delta, planted area--at 3.9 million acres--was the largest since 1995, producing a crop of 5.3 million bales, the highest in 3 years. In the Southeast, area continued to expand and approached 3.6 million acres in 2000--the largest since 1954-- producing a crop of nearly 4.3 million bales. In the West, upland production expanded to 3.1 million bales as increased area and a record yield of 1,335 pounds per harvested acre were reported. But despite the largest area in the Southwest since 1995, a large abandonment and reduced yields in that region lowered production to 4.1 million bales in 2000. In contrast, the extra-long staple (ELS) crop finished at 389,000 bales, 40 percent below 1999/2000 as area was reduced by a similar percentage. California continues to dominate ELS production, accounting for nearly 90 percent of the 2000 crop. U.S. Demand: Increased Cotton Demand Expected in 2001/02 Demand for U.S. cotton next season is estimated to expand 15 percent to 18 million bales. U.S. mill use, projected at 9 million bales in 2001/02, is down slightly from this season as competition from textile imports and the restructuring of the industry is expected to continue to place downward pressure on domestic mill consumption. Record cotton textile and apparel imports are anticipated in 2000/01, with further increases seen again next season. However, many of these imports will contain U.S. cotton and are expected to bolster U.S. raw cotton exports in 2001/02. For 2001/02, U.S. cotton exports are projected to rise to 9 million bales, 40 percent above the current seasons estimate and the highest since 1994/95. Conditions favoring increased shipments next season include the large exportable supplies anticipated in the United States, the modest improvement projected in world cotton consumption, and strong preseason sales. Export sales for 2001/02 have already surpassed 1.5 million running bales, compared with less than 800,000 bales a year ago. In addition, the possibility of a larger than normal export sales rollover would push early season commitments even higher. With beginning stocks currently estimated at 5.5 million bales for 2001/02 and production projected to expand, U.S. cotton supply next season is estimated at 24.3 million, the largest since 1966/67. And as U.S. production is expected to exceed total demand, cotton stocks next season are likely to rise once again. Based on these early 2001/02 projections, stocks would rise about 15 percent (800,000 bales) to 6.3 million bales by July 31, 2002. U.S. Demand: Large Revision Made to 2000/01 Exports For 2000/01, the May U.S. cotton export forecast was reduced 500,000 bales to 6.4 million, the result of a recent drop-off in shipments. This spring, exports surged as a 6-week stretch of above-average shipments broke an 18-week run of below-average shipments. This was consistent with a lagged response to a surge in commitments that began a few weeks earlier. However, since USDA's April forecast, the export pattern has become more variable--2 weeks of below-average shipments, followed by 2 weeks of above-average shipments. The lower level of shipments during the last month suggests that a larger share of this seasons export sales will be rolled over into next season or cancelled than was expected last month. A smaller share of exportable supplies is now expected to be shipped during the last 12 weeks of the marketing year than was projected last month--17 percent rather than 23 percent. Exportable supplies after week 40 can be estimated as beginning stocks plus production minus exports during the first 40 weeks minus marketing year mill use. Then, exports of 6.4 million bales assume late-season exports as a share of exportable supplies slightly below the 18 percent average over 1987-99. Last month's estimate assumed the highest share since 1994's 23 percent. While below recent peaks, export sales continue to be added at an above-average rate, although week 38 was the first below-average week for additional commitments in 10 weeks. If sales continue to be added as in weeks 38-40, then commitments will be sufficient to permit either nearly double the average share of rollover of export sales into the next marketing year or significant cancellations. The slowdown in shipments during the last month is evidence that this is more likely than shipping these sales during 2000/01. Foreign Production: 2001/02 Output Expected Higher While world production is projected to rise 7 percent in 2001/02, to 93 million bales, its highest since 1995, foreign output is expected to rise for the first time in 4 years, up 6 percent to 74 million. Production in China is generally expected to increase, given widespread reports of higher planting intentions and larger early-season plantings. Farmers are reportedly responding to last years increased price, although, it should be noted that the strongest correlation between cotton prices and production during the 1990s was during the same year rather than with a lagged year. Chinas Government has been publishing forecasts of Chinas supply, demand, and price for cotton in 2001/02 and intended to persuade farmers to restrain their cotton plantings. However, soybean prices in China have fallen, and government policies toward grain production have been to a large extent negative, suggesting that competition from other crops is not strong. Higher production is likely in India in lagged response to last seasons price increase, and while Central Asian production is likely to be hampered by yet another year of below-average irrigation supplies, Uzbekistans crop could rise, assuming no repetition of last years unusual rains during harvest. Several producers in West Africas Franc Zone have indicated intentions to plant more cotton, and, although the last several months of price performance may exert some of an offsetting influence, world prices during the year-to-date have averaged higher, suggesting some increase in Franc Zone production might occur. Australias area has generally been on a rising trend in recent years as irrigation capacity is expanded, and Brazils Mato Grosso has also proven to be an increasingly productive region. With the average U.S. farm price of soybeans expected to fall by yet another 4.5 percent in 2001/02, Brazils cotton output could be boosted by shifting as well as expanding area. In Pakistan, it remains to be seen how the direction of output change is affected by problems with irrigation supplies: with yet another year of reduced precipitation, cotton yields could suffer, but if substantial plantings shift from rice to cotton to conserve water, the net impact could even be an increase in the crop. World Consumption: Growth Expected in 2001/02 World consumption is likely to increase at a slightly above- average rate during 2001/02 as world GDP growth improves and the lagged effect of current low cotton prices begins to affect demand. At 93 million bales, world consumption is expected to increase 1.4 percent, compared with an average growth rate over the last 5 years of 1.3 percent. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently forecast world GDP growth to rebound from a 3.2- percent rate in 2001 to a 3.9-percent rate in 2002. This would be slightly higher than the 3.7-percent average the IMF has estimated for the preceding 5 years. Cotton prices have fallen substantially in recent months, while polyester prices have fallen only slightly. Thus, the ratio between cotton and polyester prices is once again well below the average of the last 5 years. In 2000/01, trade was depressed relative to consumption due to the global distribution of consumption changes. In 2000/01, world trade is estimated to equal 28.3 percent of world consumption; trade is expected to equal 29.8 percent of world consumption in 2001, about the same as in 1999/2000. In 2000/01, China was virtually the only country to register a significant increase in cotton consumption--a 1.3-million-bale increase. Chinas imports are estimated less than 300,000 bales higher than the year before. While China was satisfying 1 million bales of additional consumption from domestic supplies, consumption fell in a set of significant importing countries by 1.3 million bales (Turkey, Mexico, Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea), helping reduce imports by these countries by 1.6 million bales. World Trade: Increased Trade Projected World trade as a share of consumption is expected to rise slightly in 2001, with world exports forecast to rise 1.7 million bales to 27.7 million. In 2001/02, the distribution of world consumption gains is less likely to be so skewed away from importing countries, suggesting a larger share of world consumption will be sourced from exporting countries rather than within consuming countries. Another factor raising this share is the likely shift of China into a net importer for the first time in 4 years. While Chinas net trade is difficult to forecast, it is worth noting that Chinas export activity has tailed off significantly during 2000/01, and import quotas have again begun to be issued, albeit in small amounts to date. Chinas stocks have fallen 9.7 million bales during the last 2 years, and the proportion of these stocks that is old or damaged has increased substantially. Chinas minimum stock level would have to include both this inaccessible cotton and supplies of spinnable cotton sufficient to at least in part cover the time between July 31 and the availability of ginned domestic cotton several months later. The accessibility of stocks is further reduced by the magnitude of the subsidies needed to offset the interest charges and grade losses that have accrued over the years even on spinnable cotton, and by the decreasing probability that the location of dwindling stocks of specific qualities of cotton is conveniently located for their appropriate customers. Chinas accession to the WTO would almost certainly result in large net imports under tariff- rate quotas, but the standard USDA assumption regarding such policy shifts is to make forecasts that assume current policies hold, so the expectation of net imports by China does not depend on WTO accession. While world imports are rising, exports by several major U.S. competitors are likely to be constrained by the reduced stocks they are bringing into the 2001/02 marketing year. Thus, even with slightly larger production in Central Asia and West Africas Franc Zone, exports by these leading competitors are unlikely to rise significantly. In many other competing countries, the likelihood of constant production means that reduced beginning stocks are likely to result in reduced exports. Thus, the United States, with its large supplies in 2001/02, is well positioned to capture a large part of the expected increase in world trade. U.S. beginning stocks plus production are expected to account for the largest share of world beginning stocks plus production since 1994/95, and the U.S. share of world trade is expected to reach 32 percent, the highest since 1994/95s 33 percent. World Ending Stocks: Smaller Share of Consumption in 2001/02 World ending stocks are expected to be unchanged from the year before during 2001/02--at 37.1 million bales--which would be the first time in 4 years they have not declined. However, with rising consumption, ending stocks as a share of consumption are forecast to decline, from 40 percent in 2000/01 to 39 percent in 2001/02. Given policies that largely segregate Chinas stocks from world markets, it is common to adjust this stock/use ratio by removing China when examining the impact of global supply and demand on prices, and in 2000/01, this ratio is estimated at 39 percent, its highest in 9 years. This ratio has increased in every one of the last 7 years, starting from a low of 35 percent in 1994/95. While USDA will not forecast supply and demand for any foreign country until July, industry estimates are available. Adjusting USDAs global consumption and stock estimates using a range of industry estimates for China suggests that adjusted global stocks as a share of consumption are likely to fall for the first time in 8 years. U.S. Textile Trade: Exports Rise, Imports Fall in February February textile imports, at 993 million (raw-fiber equivalent) pounds, were about 13 percent below January and 3 percent below February 2000. Reduced imports occurred for all major fibers and all end-use categories. Cotton imports, at 571 million pounds, declined 12 percent from a month earlier. Imports of cotton textiles accounted for 58 percent of total imports. U.S. cotton imports from North American countries increased 12 percent to 246 million pounds representing 43 percent of the total. Imports from all other major regions fell in February compared with a month earlier. Conversely, February 2001 textile exports, at 427 million pounds, rose nearly 9 percent from January and were 7 percent above a year earlier. U.S. exports expanded for all major fibers, except linen, and all end-use categories. Cotton exports, at 198 million pounds, were the largest single-fiber shipment and accounted for 46 percent of the February total. In addition, February cotton textile exports were 13 percent above January and 10 percent above a year ago. As usual, U.S. cotton textile exports were shipped mainly to other North American countries. Shipments to North America accounted for 89 percent of the February 2001 total. Mexico continues to be the leading destination, receiving 43 percent of the regions total. * * * * * The next Cotton and Wool Outlook (CWS-0501) will be released on June 13, 2001. Introduced in January: A newly designed, newly structured ERS website provides you with accurate, timely, comprehensive, easy- to-find economic analysis on issues related to agriculture, food, the environment, and rural development. The website includes 19 commodity Briefing Rooms, 12 country Briefing Rooms, and a host of issue-oriented Briefing Rooms covering issues ranging from analysis of the World Trade Organization (WTO) to topics such as risk management, farm structure, and conservation and environmental policies. The new ERS website contains: -- a powerful new interface design -- a user-friendly site structure -- an enhanced search feature -- a synthesis of the extensive research, including: Latest publications Latest data products Recommended readings and data products Recent research developments Newsletters Related links Maps and charts gallery Bookmark www.ers.usda.gov Information Contacts: Leslie Meyer (U.S. Cotton and Textiles) LMEYER@ERS.USDA.GOV (202) 694-5307 Stephen MacDonald (Foreign Cotton) STEPHENM@ERS.USDA.GOV (202) 694-5305 Robert Skinner (Textiles and Wool) RSKINNER@ERS.USDA.GOV 694-5313 U.S. COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000/01 ----------------------------- Item 1999/2000 Mar Apr May -------------------------------------------------------------------- Upland: Million acres Planted 14.584 15.365 15.365 15.347 Harvested 13.138 12.927 12.927 12.884 Pounds Yield/harvested acre 595 625 625 626 Million 480-lb bales Beginning stocks 3.836 3.672 3.672 3.672 Production 16.294 16.822 16.822 16.799 Total supply 1/ 20.183 20.504 20.504 20.476 Mill use 10.104 9.370 9.170 9.075 Exports 6.303 6.440 6.440 5.945 Total use 16.407 15.810 15.610 15.020 Ending stocks 3.672 4.712 4.912 5.421 Percent Stocks-to-use ratio 22.4 29.8 31.5 36.1 Extra-long staple: 1,000 acres Planted 290 172 172 170 Harvested 287 171 171 169 Pounds Yield/harvested acre 1,128 1,119 1,119 1,105 1,000 480-lb bales Beginning stocks 103 250 250 250 Production 674 398 398 389 Total supply 1/ 821 668 668 649 Mill use 137 130 130 125 Exports 447 460 460 455 Total use 584 590 590 580 Ending stocks 250 88 88 79 Percent Stocks-to-use ratio 42.8 14.9 14.9 13.6 -------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA estimates. 1/ Includes imports. WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000/01 ---------------------------- Item 1999/2000 Mar Apr May -------------------------------------------------------------------- Supply: Million 480-lb bales Beginning stocks World 44.89 41.00 41.00 41.10 Foreign 40.95 37.08 37.08 37.18 Production World 87.24 88.16 87.54 87.22 Foreign 70.27 70.94 70.32 70.04 Imports World 28.28 26.89 27.12 26.71 Foreign 28.18 26.86 27.09 26.69 Use: Mill use World 91.81 91.84 91.66 91.72 Foreign 81.57 82.34 82.36 82.52 Exports World 27.23 26.40 26.34 26.00 Foreign 20.48 19.50 19.44 19.60 Ending stocks World 41.10 37.67 37.51 37.12 Foreign 37.18 33.87 32.51 31.62 Stocks-to-use ratio Percent World 44.8 41.0 40.9 40.5 Foreign 45.6 39.9 39.5 38.3 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA estimates. FIBER SUPPLY -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2001 2000 -------------------------- Item Jan Feb Mar Mar -------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb bales Ginnings 565 131 0 0 Imports since August 1 7.7 7.7 NA 72.3 Stocks, beginning 14,371 13,585 12,423 11,820 At mills 425 449 470 501 Public storage 12,458 11,779 10,602 9,726 CCC stocks 2,069 2,939 3,007 836 Manmade: Million pounds Production 790.3 765.7 830.9 944.5 Noncellulosic 759.1 740.0 802.5 911.9 Cellulosic 31.2 25.7 28.4 32.6 Total since January 1 790.3 1,556.0 2,386.9 2,689.4 2000 2001 2000 -------------- Dec Jan Feb Feb --------------------------------------------------------------------- Million pounds Raw fiber imports 110.3 123.4 107.6 135.7 Noncellulosic 106.6 120.3 103.4 130.6 Cellulosic 3.7 3.1 4.2 5.1 Total since January 1 1,577.3 123.4 231.0 288.8 Wool and Mohair: 1,000 pounds Raw wool imports, clean 2,396 4,948 4,322 3,805 48's-and-finer 1,035 2,435 2,265 1,879 Not-finer-than-46's 1,362 2,228 2,114 1,927 Total since January 1 45,001 4,948 9,270 8,692 Wool top imports 532 580 426 303 Total since January 1 5,044 580 1,006 688 Mohair imports, clean 0 0 0 0 Total since January 1 16 0 0 4 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NA = Not available. COTTON SYSTEM FIBER CONSUMPTION -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2001 2000 ------------------------ Item Jan Feb Mar Mar --------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb bales All consumed by mills 1/ 787 680 772 935 Total since August 1 1/ 4,746 5,426 6,198 6,864 SA annual rate 2/ 8,957 8,655 8,803 10,332 SA daily rate 2/ 34.3 33.2 33.7 39.6 Daily rate 34.2 34.0 35.1 40.6 Upland consumed by mills 1/ 775 670 761 922 Total since August 1 1/ 4,683 5,352 6,113 6,772 SA daily rate 2/ 33.8 32.7 33.2 39.0 Daily rate 33.7 33.5 34.6 40.1 Spindles in place 4,219 4,023 3,931 4,570 Active spindles 3,930 3,760 3,665 4,386 100 percent cotton 2,068 2,026 2,004 2,381 100 percent manmade 641 596 580 690 Blends 1,221 1,138 1,081 1,315 Percent Cotton's share of fibers 78.0 78.3 78.3 78.1 Manmade: 1,000 pounds Total consumed by mills 1/ 106,479 90,528 102,750 125,696 Total since August 1 1/ 614,906 705,434 808,184 892,791 Daily rate 4,630 4,526 4,670 5,465 Noncellulosic staple 4,369 4,269 4,415 5,150 Cellulosic staple 261 257 255 315 -------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Adjusted to calendar month. 2/ SA = seasonally adjusted. FIBER EXPORTS -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000 2001 2000 ---------------- Item Dec Jan Feb Feb -------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb bales Upland exports 485 518 572 794 Total since August 1 1,947 2,464 3,036 3,047 Sales for next season 30 50 234 66 Total since August 1 259 309 543 445 ELS exports 55.6 46.0 41.5 42.2 Total since August 1 177.1 223.1 264.6 183.7 Sales for next season 30.9 11.6 13.2 8.2 Total since August 1 47.4 59.1 72.4 20.4 Manmade: Million pounds Raw fiber exports 85.5 83.1 83.2 100.6 Noncellulosic 76.3 74.7 75.7 95.6 Cellulosic 9.2 8.4 7.5 5.0 Total since January 1 1,131.9 83.1 166.3 178.6 Wool and Mohair: 1,000 pounds Raw wool exports, clean 199.4 511.0 247.9 214.3 Total since January 1 6,129.6 511.0 758.9 558.1 Wool top exports 400.5 166.9 731.5 277.9 Total since January 1 6,908.3 166.9 898.4 711.9 Mohair exports, clean 306.1 63.7 72.6 0 Total since January 1 3,552.8 63.7 136.3 350.9 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FIBER PRICES -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2001 2000 -------------------------- Item Feb Mar Apr Apr -------------------------------------------------------------------- Cents per pound Domestic cotton prices: Adjusted World Price 47.51 41.49 37.61 44.83 Upland spot 41-34 54.10 47.22 42.19 53.76 Pima spot 03-46 100.66 96.95 96.50 84.79 Avg. price received by: Upland producers 49.10 43.20 43.60 45.40 Mill delivered: Cotton Actual 61.25 54.34 49.06 61.04 Raw fiber equivalent 68.06 60.38 54.51 67.82 Rayon staple Actual 99.00 99.00 99.00 97.00 Raw fiber equivalent 103.13 103.13 103.13 101.04 Polyester staple Actual 60.00 60.00 62.00 55.00 Raw fiber equivalent 62.50 62.50 64.58 57.29 Price ratios Percent Cotton/rayon 66.0 58.5 52.9 67.1 Cotton/polyester 108.9 96.6 84.4 118.4 Northern Europe cotton quotes: Cents per pound A Index 60.88 54.75 51.24 58.90 Memphis Territory 68.63 61.25 55.50 64.31 California/Arizona 67.38 58.70 54.06 64.19 B Index 57.56 52.05 48.74 53.35 Orleans/Texas 57.38 50.65 46.50 52.81 Wool prices (clean): Dollars per pound U.S. 56's 0.62 0.65 0.65 0.54 Australian 56's 1/ 1.30 1.33 1.32 1.27 U.S. 60's 0.75 0.79 0.96 0.74 Australian 60's 1/ 1.53 1.54 1.51 1.37 U.S. 64's 1.00 1.08 1.29 1.10 Australian 64's 1/ 1.68 1.64 1.58 1.56 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NQ = No quotes. NA = Not available. 1/ In bond, Charleston, SC. TEXTILE TRADE -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000 2001 2000 ----------------- Item Dec Jan Feb Feb ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Imports: 1,000 pounds 1/ Yarn, thread, and fabric 234,236 267,098 211,947 251,370 Cotton 97,095 115,533 89,093 112,014 Linen 32,851 21,630 23,378 20,906 Wool 2,852 3,069 2,521 4,212 Silk 923 1,019 725 889 Manmade 100,515 125,847 96,230 113,349 Apparel 611,138 751,712 674,307 670,410 Cotton 381,132 462,138 426,790 420,529 Linen 16,021 22,972 19,183 18,562 Wool 12,197 13,080 10,379 13,088 Silk 12,658 18,558 14,398 14,506 Manmade 189,130 234,964 203,557 203,725 House furnishings 64,746 76,199 63,559 65,918 Cotton 45,014 58,242 46,918 48,026 Linen 998 1,236 1,486 1,017 Wool 462 356 418 257 Silk 126 104 161 140 Manmade 18,146 16,261 14,576 16,478 Floor coverings 38,626 39,182 35,938 30,657 Cotton 4,680 4,761 4,312 4,120 Linen 6,964 6,971 5,714 4,639 Wool 12,645 11,876 11,007 8,837 Silk 776 692 691 728 Manmade 13,561 14,882 14,214 12,333 Total imports 2/ 956,421 1,143,125 993,233 1,026,571 Cotton 532,223 645,899 571,405 589,642 Linen 56,899 52,882 49,805 45,176 Wool 28,259 28,439 24,422 26,446 Silk 14,486 20,374 15,978 16,264 Manmade 324,553 395,531 331,624 349,043 Exports: 1,000 pounds 1/ Yarn, thread, and fabric 216,453 213,380 233,292 205,714 Cotton 86,418 85,520 100,900 78,930 Linen 5,823 5,696 5,449 6,474 Wool 4.414 4,366 3,580 5,241 Silk 2,393 2,549 2,695 2,210 Manmade 117,405 115,249 120,668 112,859 Apparel 145,731 144,633 156,466 151,188 Cotton 85,958 83,678 90,111 94,362 Linen 1,909 2,181 2,024 1,910 Wool 8,590 8,367 9,818 6,900 Silk 4,835 4,267 5,582 4,204 Manmade 44,439 45,140 48,931 43,812 House furnishings 7,030 5,703 7,090 6,655 Cotton 4,567 3,659 4,497 4,070 Linen 143 156 133 236 Wool 117 57 80 51 Silk 47 50 60 88 Manmade 2,156 1,781 2,320 2,210 Floor coverings 29,409 28,847 29,706 35,924 Cotton 2,735 2,383 2,454 2,685 Linen 1,479 1,325 1,320 1,526 Wool 2,472 2,546 2,872 3,924 Silk 82 41 55 55 Manmade 22,641 22,552 23,005 27,734 Total exports 2/ 398,829 391,749 426,849 399,775 Cotton 179,734 175,294 198,060 180,129 Linen 9,359 9,363 8,936 10,155 Wool 15,610 15,352 16,366 16,130 Silk 7,356 6,906 8,392 6,557 Manmade 186,770 184,834 195,095 186,805 -------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Includes headgear. Note: Data for 2001 are preliminary and subject to revision. U.S. COTTON TEXTILE IMPORTS -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000 2001 2000 ------------------ Item Dec Jan Feb Feb -------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 pounds 1/ North America 228,374 219,799 245,880 246,586 Canada 19,156 21,372 21,932 22,655 Costa Rica 10,481 6,027 8,898 9,002 Dominican Republic 15,982 15,350 18,536 21,803 El Salvador 20,323 17,070 18,905 21,659 Guatemala 12,884 16,983 14,983 12,279 Haiti 4,271 2,741 3,506 4,121 Honduras 38,872 28,952 40,681 38,777 Jamaica 2,299 1,579 2,615 3,230 Mexico 99,374 104,067 110,201 108,618 Nicaragua 4,467 5,250 5,289 4,135 South America 12,652 14,778 13,569 12,661 Brazil 4,195 6,150 5,802 5,539 Chile 42 25 12 45 Colombia 4,145 3,800 3,742 3,035 Peru 3,670 4,236 3,299 3,506 Europe 34,054 46,107 37,330 36,727 Germany 954 775 823 1,229 Italy 3,423 4,740 3,625 4,249 Portugal 3,220 3,007 2,939 2,710 Russia 3,077 3,754 2,958 1,895 Spain 1,619 703 794 1,126 Turkey 11,104 21,285 17,230 17,577 United Kingdom 1,552 1,642 1,132 1,416 Uzbekistan 2,190 1,635 963 828 Asia 235,838 340,795 253,419 276,651 Bahrain 2,942 3,600 3,034 2,180 Bangladesh 15,396 26,144 19,763 19,895 Brunei 1,456 1,883 1,836 1,389 Burma 4,437 6,014 5,214 3,004 Cambodia 4,548 10,542 8,840 8,587 China 29,087 46,523 27,890 36,899 Hong Kong 21,897 35,194 19,811 30,767 India 24,836 33,257 27,022 29,136 Indonesia 14,493 19,012 12,317 11,355 Israel 3,320 4,427 3,840 2,549 Japan 1,360 1,652 1,407 1,412 Macao 4,547 7,472 3,820 5,343 Malaysia 5,245 6,479 5,422 5,293 Nepal 1,715 2,097 2,555 2,742 Oman 1,833 2,820 1,584 1,526 Pakistan 36,281 47,419 43,907 45,656 Philippines 9,698 13,932 9,838 11,155 Qatar 1,508 1,894 1,675 1,415 Singapore 2,555 3,832 1,804 3,338 South Korea 9,899 11,955 9,137 9,420 Sri Lanka 8,209 10,863 9,355 8,457 Taiwan 10,365 14,922 8,407 11,470 Thailand 12,804 15,202 12,654 14,209 U Arab Em 2,034 5,534 5,373 4,773 Vietnam 1,057 1,600 1,313 1,077 Oceania 1,999 3,121 2,515 2,296 Australia 1,274 1,591 1,360 1,021 Africa 19,306 21,300 18,692 14,720 Egypt 8,782 10,163 8,726 6,641 Lesotho 2,155 2,141 1,943 2,087 Mauritius 1,895 1,977 2,034 1,902 Morocco 1,257 1,165 1,292 939 South Africa 1,829 1,851 1,736 864 World 2/ 532,223 645,899 571,405 589,642 -------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Note: Data for 2001 are preliminary and subject to revision. U.S. COTTON TEXTILE EXPORTS -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000 2001 2000 ------------------ Country Dec Jan Feb Feb ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 pounds 1/ North America 158,559 157,913 176,126 160,075 Bahamas 105 154 63 119 Belize 46 119 89 107 Canada 22,859 24,831 26,671 26,789 Costa Rica 7,303 6,384 7,302 6,977 Dominican Republic 12,648 13,247 15,163 16,909 El Salvador 11,328 9,436 13,467 9,095 Guatemala 4,111 4,608 5,325 3,178 Haiti 2,797 2,303 2,783 2,324 Honduras 25,655 23,837 27,274 23,254 Jamaica 2,528 2,021 2,028 2,004 Mexico 67,908 69,932 74,896 67,701 Nicaragua 798 602 539 1,026 Panama 39 170 229 348 South America 4,297 3,453 2,693 3,835 Argentina 117 46 94 259 Brazil 392 480 258 538 Chile 869 639 619 503 Colombia 1,545 1,304 834 821 Ecuador 57 123 47 54 Peru 53 42 47 510 Venezuela 1,087 689 604 956 Europe 7,137 6,685 11,363 6,650 Belgium 2,499 2,200 1,556 1,795 France 377 378 269 376 Germany 714 712 744 655 Ireland 156 116 140 84 Italy 243 231 337 484 Netherlands 585 783 5,892 544 Poland 19 6 39 164 Spain 78 61 109 84 Turkey 205 177 20 90 United Kingdom 1,632 1,409 1,569 1,676 Asia 7,840 6,318 6,760 8,602 China 458 226 429 300 Hong Kong 927 907 773 759 Israel 272 223 479 528 Japan 3,244 2,628 2,808 3,516 Malaysia 74 7 64 556 Philippines 137 240 151 197 Saudi Arabia 429 270 298 470 Singapore 398 250 184 239 South Korea 339 274 202 501 Sri Lanka 282 182 214 253 Taiwan 289 321 330 435 U Arab Em 314 126 188 183 Oceania 916 435 567 571 Australia 811 320 376 472 Africa 985 490 551 396 Ivory Coast 118 46 19 0 Morocco 387 127 225 42 Nigeria 155 33 72 76 South Africa 109 63 81 100 World 2/ 179,734 175,294 198,060 180,129 --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Note: Data for 2001 are preliminary and subject to revision. FINAL 2000 U.S. COTTON ACREAGE, YIELD, AND PRODUCTION ------------------------------------------------------------------- State/ Region Planted Harvested Yield Production ------------------------------------------------------------------- lb/ 1,000 1,000 acres harvested acre bales Upland: Alabama 590 530 492 543 Florida 130 106 480 106 Georgia 1,500 1,350 591 1,663 N. Carolina 930 925 742 1,429 S. Carolina 300 290 627 379 Virginia 110 108 738 166 Southeast 3,560 3,309 622 4,286 Arkansas 960 950 720 1,425 Louisiana 710 695 629 911 Mississippi 1,300 1,280 642 1,711 Missouri 400 388 668 540 Tennessee 570 565 603 710 Delta 3,940 3,878 656 5,297 Kansas 40 37 288 22 Oklahoma 280 145 503 152 Texas 6,400 4,400 430 3,940 Southwest 6,720 4,582 431 4,114 Arizona 280 278 1,366 791 California 775 770 1,378 2,210 New Mexico 72 67 724 101 West 1,127 1,115 1,335 3,102 Total Upland 15,347 12,884 626 16,799 Pima: Arizona 5 5 705 7 California 145 144 1,154 346 New Mexico 4 4 539 5 Texas 16 16 930 31 Total Pima 170 169 1,105 389 Total All 15,517 13,053 632 17,188 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA's May 2001 Crop Production report. END_OF_FILE