COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK July 12, 2001 July 2001, ERS-CWS-0601 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board -------------------------------------------------------------------------- COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK is issued electronically 10 times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no printed copies available. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Despite an Asian drought stretching from Iran through Central Asia to Pakistan, and an A-Index currently 43 percent below its 1990s inflation- adjusted average, world cotton production is expected to experience its largest jump in 5 years during 2001/02 up 6.7 million bales to 94.7 million. On the other hand, world cotton consumption is expected to rise 1.1 percent from the year before during 2001/02, slightly below the 1.3-percent average growth rate of the preceding 5 years rising 1 million bales to 92.7 million. Although world Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in 2002 is likely to rebound to about the 3-percent rate it averaged over the last 5 years, stagnant Chinese consumption is expected to hold global mill use growth to slightly below average. World cotton ending stocks in 2001/02 are expected to rise 2.1 million bales to 40 million. As a percentage of global cotton use, stocks are expected to rise from 41 percent in 2000/01 to 43 percent. Excluding China's consumption and stocks, the respective percentages are 39 and 42 percent. At 42 percent, 2001/02's world-excluding-China stocks-to-use ratio is forecast to be the highest since 1985/86. The United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA) forecast for 2001/02 reflects a larger U.S. crop, lower demand, and rising stocks. U.S. cotton production is projected at 19.2 million bales, up slightly from last month's estimate as a result of increased area. Total demand, on the other hand, was lowered to 17.5 million bales this month as the domestic mill industry continues to struggle to remain competitive. Although U.S. mill use is expected to decline from the current season, exports in 2001/02 are expected to climb appreciably. Despite the largest total demand since 1997/98, U.S. ending stocks are projected to rise considerably during the season to 7.3 million bales, the highest since 1985/86. For 2000/01, U.S. ending stocks were unchanged at 5.6 million bales, as a 100,000-bale reduction in domestic mill use was offset by an equal increase in exports. U.S. Production: Cotton Area and Output Rises from Earlier Indications According to USDA's June Acreage report, U.S. producers have planted nearly 16.3 million acres of cotton this season. The revised cotton area is 4 percent above the March Prospective Plantings report and 5 percent (nearly 800,000 acres) above 2000. The increase from last season is attributable to the relatively favorable net returns for cotton over competing crops at planting time, the cotton marketing loan program, and the crop insurance program. Upland cotton acreage rose 5 percent from last season to nearly 16.1 million acres, with gains in the eastern half of the Cotton Belt more than offsetting declines in the western half. Compared with 2000, the Delta rose an astonishing 850,000 acres (22 percent) to nearly 4.8 million, the highest since 1995. The Southeast expanded 235,000 acres (7 percent) to 3.8 million. While the increase is less dramatic, the total 2001 Southeast area is the highest since 1953. According to the Acreage report, the Southwest declined about 225,000 acres (3 percent) from 2000 to 6.5 million. In addition, the largest percentage decrease (13 percent) came in the West region, where a 150,000-acre reduction placed area slightly below 1 million acres. However, approximately 40 percent of the upland decline in the West was planted to extra-long staple (ELS) cotton this season. ELS area rose 65,000 acres (38 percent) from a year ago to 235,000 acres in 2001. While gains were reported in all ELS-producing States, the changes in California up 60,000 acres are significant because of the production implications for California's high- yielding area. With the exception of dry conditions in the Southwest, timely moisture in the other regions has produced generally favorable crop conditions. As of July 8th, U.S. cotton acreage rated in good or excellent condition equaled 56 percent, similar to the preceding 6 weeks but slightly below a year ago. In contrast and heavily influenced by the crop conditions in Texas, 17 percent of the U.S. crop was considered poor or very poor this season, compared with last season's 12 percent. In Texas, 30 percent of the crop was in poor or very poor condition as of July 8th, due mainly to the dry conditions; in addition, Oklahoma conditions indicate that 41 percent of the area is in a similar situation. While U.S. crop conditions are slightly below those of 2000, the development of the crop is ahead of last season. As of July 8th, 28 percent of the crop was setting bolls, compared with 26 percent last year and a 5-year average of 25 percent. In helping to raise the average, two States are worth noting. Louisiana had 73 percent of its cotton area setting bolls, compared with an average of 49 percent. Also, Arkansas had 53 percent setting bolls as of July 8th, compared with a 5-year average of only 27 percent. With the increased U.S. cotton area partially offset by increased abandonment in the Southwest, the 2001 U.S. cotton production forecast was raised 400,000 bales this month to 19.2 million. If realized, production would rise 12 percent from 2000 and be the second largest on record behind the 1994 season. The increase from last season is the result of not only larger area, but also an anticipated improvement in the national yield. In 2001, abandonment is forecast at about 12 percent similar to the 5-year average resulting in harvested area of 14.4 million acres; last season, abandonment approached 16 percent. Based on the area and production estimates, the national average yield is forecast at 640 pounds per harvested acre, 8 pounds above last season and equal to the 10-year average by State. On August 10th, the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) will provide their initial survey projections of cotton area to be harvested, yield, and production. U.S. Demand: Total Cotton Use Reduced for 2001/02 While total demand like production is projected to rise in 2001/02 by 2 million bales, the production estimate remains well above demand expectations. With higher U.S. production projected and carryin stocks estimated at 5.6 million bales, total 2001/02 cotton supplies are expected to rise to 24.8 million, the largest since 1966/67. Total U.S. cotton demand is projected at 17.5 million bales in 2001/02, the highest in four seasons. U.S. exports remain estimated at 9 million bales in 2001/02, 36 percent higher than the current season and the highest since 1994/95. In contrast, U.S. mill use is forecast at only 8.5 million bales in 2001/02, 4 percent below the current season's estimate. Despite the expectation for a recovery in the growth of U.S. retail demand for cotton products, this growth is increasingly being satisfied by textile and apparel imports. With the competition from imports exacerbated by the strength of the U.S. dollar, U.S. mills have been forced to curtail their cotton spinning operations. The current projection is the fourth consecutive year of declining mill use and nearly 3 million bales below its recent high in 1997/98. Despite the anticipated improvement in U.S. cotton demand for the upcoming season, these early projections indicate ending stocks will rise substantially during the 2001 season and are forecast to reach a staggering 7.3 million bales by July 31, 2002, a stocks-to-use ratio of nearly 42 percent. While the stocks-to-use ratio would be the highest since 1988/89, the level of ending stocks would expand 1.7 million bales from 2000/01 to their highest since 1985/86. World Production: Gains Led by the United States Poor competing crop prices, particularly for rice and soybeans, a return to average weather, and domestic policies and market developments in the world's three largest producing countries are expected to result in a 7.5-percent increase in world cotton production despite a sharp decline in the A-Index since December 2000. With a 2-million-bale increase in output, the United States is expected to realize the largest year-to-year gain, but with a 1.7- million-bale increase expected in China and a 1.4-million-bale increase foreseen for India, large gains are expected in all three of the world's leading cotton producers. While drought is expected to constrain the fourth largest cotton producer, Pakistan, to a 100,000-bale increase, output gains ranging from 200,000 to 320,000 bales are foreseen for Uzbekistan, Egypt, Brazil, and Mali. China's cotton area has reportedly increased substantially once again in its eastern provinces, and at 4.6 million hectares, 2001/02 area is forecast at China's highest since 1996/97 and 15 percent above its year-ago level. With the spread of Bt cotton accounting for much of the recent area increase in eastern provinces like Shandong, Henan, and Hebei, China's average cotton yield is expected to be its second highest ever, only 4 percent below the record 1.1 tons per hectare achieved during 2000/01. Officially reported cotton prices did not rise a great deal in China during 2000/01, but as the opening up of procurement to entities other than the official Supply and Marketing Cooperatives (SMC) companies evolved, unofficial dealers were reportedly offering prices above those of the Cotton and Jute Companies. Corn prices and corn area have increased in China as well this year, but with Bt cotton offering substantially reduced production costs, and weak prices across a number of other competing crops, cotton was reportedly an attractive alternative for many farmers this spring. While rainfall in several eastern provinces was unusually low during May and early June this year, precipitation improved as June ended, as it typically does. Reportedly, the period of low rainfall had little or no impact, and yields are expected to be good. In India, cotton area is expected to rise about 500,000 hectares, or 7 percent, to 8.7 million hectares. Cotton prices in India were above year- earlier levels during much of the 2000/01 marketing year, and rice prices were relatively weak. This in particular reportedly helped spur plantings in India's irrigated northern states of Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan. A much more favorable monsoon is expected to boost production area and yields in Gujarat, India's largest producing state in most recent years. Production in India is expected to reach 12.3 million bales, its highest since 1998/99. More normal weather accounts for most of Uzbekistan's expected 200,000-bale increase and Mali's 320,000-bale increase, but higher area is estimated in each case as well. Uzbekistan's yields are expected to rise despite a severe multi-year drought in the region, assuming that last fall's unusual rains do not reappear to again damage the harvest. Mali and a large number of other countries in West Africa's Franc Zone are expected to plant more cotton in response to improved export revenues compared with the year before during much of 2000/01. Production in Cote d'Ivoire is expected to rise 175,000 bales, and total Franc Zone output is expected to be 20 percent higher than the year before. Franc Zone output is expected to rise 630,000 bales to 3.85 million bales. World Consumption: Demand Constrained by China's Stagnation After stagnating in 2000/01, world consumption is expected to increase once again in 2001/02, rising 1.1 percent to 92.7 million bales. However, in contrast to the last 2 years, China's consumption is not expected to increase, as China's domestic prices have run counter to the global declining trend during 2000/01, crimping textile industry profits and the attractiveness of cotton use there. Over the last 2 years, China has accounted for 68 percent of the world's gain in consumption, but during 2001/02 the world's largest cotton consumer is expected to remain at the 23.5-million-bale level achieved during 2000/01. Turkey's consumption of cotton is expected to rise 500,000 bales from the year before during 2001/02 as it works through its adjustment to new economic policies necessitated by last year's financial shocks and begins to benefit from favorable exchange rates. At 4.5 million bales, Turkey's consumption is still forecast below its 1999/2000 level. In contrast, Brazil's cotton consumption is not expected to rise from the year before, despite the weakening of its exchange rate, due to the likelihood of energy rationing. A 300,000-bale increase in Pakistan's consumption is foreseen compared with the year before as investment in Pakistan's textile industry continues, and a 300,000-bale rebound is expected for consumption in India. Smaller increases are foreseen in Indonesia (100,000 bales), Thailand (100,000), Taiwan (50,000), and Germany (50,000). Lower consumption is foreseen compared with the year before in Japan (50,000 bales), South Korea (50,000 bales), and the United States (400,000 bales). World Trade: Trade Rising, Foreign Exports Stagnant World trade is expected to rise 2.4 million bales from the year before in 2001/02, driven foremost by a 1-million-bale increase in China's imports. At 28.5 million bales, world trade is expected to reach its highest level since 1990/91. Outside of China, several much smaller increases in imports are expected, driven by the need to either meet rising consumption or rebuild stocks drawn down during 2000/01. While the two largest importers in the world, Indonesia and Mexico, are each expected to decrease their imports slightly in 2001/02 compared with the year before, the third largest, Turkey, is expected to increase its imports 300,000 bales as consumption rebounds. Pakistan's imports are expected to increase by 250,000 bales, and increases of between 100,000 and 175,000 bales are foreseen for India, Thailand, and Taiwan. China's imports are expected to rise, assuming additional import quota continues to be issued. China avoided significant imports during 2000/01 in part by auctioning government-owned stocks. Much of the most attractive cotton from these state-reserve and SMC stocks has been distributed, and while the auctions are expected to continue, the recent relaxation of China's import prohibition is also expected to continue. This does not assume China's accession into the World Trade Organization (WTO). While the likely timing of accession has reportedly neared recently, enough uncertainty remains for USDA to continue to forecast with the assumption that China remains outside of the WTO during most of 2001/02. Tighter beginning stocks or reduced production are expected to constrain exports from most countries during 2001/02, and outside the United States, export reductions are expected to about offset export increases. Higher exports are expected from the Franc Zone, a 240,000-bale increase to 3.4 million bales; however, this increase is well below the 630,000-bale increase foreseen for production. Australia's and Pakistan's exports are each expected to fall by 200,000 bales compared with the year before, in part due to reduced beginning stocks, and Turkmenistan's exports are expected to fall 75,000 bales for similar reasons. Reduced production is expected to lower Greek and Syrian exports by 150,000 and 100,000 bales, respectively. The only major export gains foreseen outside of the Franc Zone and the United States in 2001/02 are from Brazil, up 225,000 bales, and Tanzania, up 100,000 bales. U.S. exports are expected to rise 2.4 million bales to 9 million, their second highest since the early 1930s. The United States is expected to hold 41 percent of the world's exportable supplies (beginning stocks, plus production, minus consumption), its highest share since 1994/95's 43 percent. During the 1990s, the U.S. share of exportable supplies averaged 30 percent, and the U.S. share of world trade averaged 25 percent: the ratio between these shares was 85 percent. In 2001/02, with U.S. and world trade respectively forecast at 9 million and 28.5 million, the U.S. share of world trade is forecast to rise from 25 percent in 2000/01 to 32 percent. Thus, the ratio between the U.S. shares of world trade and exportable supplies is forecast to reach 77 percent. This is well below the 85 percent average seen during the 1990s. With U.S. export sales for 2001/02 running well ahead of year-ago levels, U.S. prices favorable for exports, and the likelihood of large exportable supplies, the United States is expected to achieve its highest volume of exports and share of world trade since 1994/95. U.S. Textile Trade: Textile Trade Declines from a Month Earlier April textile trade data indicate imports declined 9 percent from a month earlier to 1.0 billion pounds (raw-fiber equivalent). Despite the decline, April shipments were still 4 percent above a year earlier. Lower shipments of cotton, manmade, and silk fibers more than offset slight gains in linen and wool. Although imports of floor coverings and yarn, thread, and fabric were up from a month ago, apparel imports declined 24 percent to 569 million pounds. Cotton textile imports, at 561 million pounds, accounted for 56 percent of all textile shipments, slightly below the share in March. Total U.S. exports in April decreased 11 percent from the previous month and were 3 percent below a year earlier. Overall, exports of all fibers and all end-use categories were below March levels. Apparel exports, at 152 million pounds, accounted for 36 percent of total April shipments, compared with a 38-percent share of a year earlier. Cotton textile imports totaled 186 million pounds, down 13 percent from a month ago and 5 percent below April 2000. Overall, the April textile trade deficit was 574 million pounds, with cotton accounting for 65 percent of the total (375 million pounds). The April deficit declined 8 percent from a month earlier, but was 9 percent above April 2000. The deficit for the first 4 months of 2001 was 2.5 billion pounds, compared with 2.4 billion a year ago. Both textile imports and exports are above shipment levels of a year ago. U.S. Exchange Rate: Climbing to Highest Since Mid-1980s Since January 1995, the U.S. dollar has appreciated 20 percent against the yen and more than 30 percent against the mark. Versus developing countries, the appreciation has often been significantly larger, in part due to the financial shocks that have hit East and Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Turkey in recent years. In addition to economic and financial factors such as fiscal deficits and export competitiveness, nominal exchange rates such as those quoted daily on spot and futures exchanges reflect differing rates of inflation between the United States and the country whose currency is being quoted. In particular, the nominal exchange rates of high inflation countries such as many developing countries to a large extent change with domestic prices. Adjusting exchange rates for inflation, and then aggregating across trading partners, or some other weights, provides a more complete perspective on exchange rate changes over time than does any particular handful of nominal bilateral rates. Two such general measures of the U.S. real exchange rate indicate that the U.S. dollar has appreciated between 25 to 50 percent since 1995. DRI-WEFA data indicate calendar year 2001's real exchange rate is expected to average 26 percent above its 1995 average, while the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) data through April indicate (assuming April's estimated level holds for the rest of the year) 2001 may average 47 percent higher. Both measures indicate that the U.S. dollar is its strongest since its peaks in the mid- 1980s and that its strength has returned to the levels of the early 1970s. Until 1971, under the Bretton Woods Agreement that governed exchange rates after World War II, the dollar was convertible into gold at a fixed rate. In April 2001, the IMF's real exchange rate index for the United States stood at 149, compared with a 1975-2000 value of 125. This index peaked in 1985 at 173, after spending 5 years above the long-run average. Within 2 years it slipped back below 125, where it remained for the next 12 years. 2001 marks the second year that the U.S. real exchange rate has averaged above its long- run average level. A strong currency is unfavorable for those sectors of the economy whose outputs are tradeable, such as cotton and textiles, depressing output, and/or prices. In particular, the strength of the dollar has been widely cited as an important factor behind the 85-percent increase in net textile and apparel imports by the United States between 1995 and 2000. However, exchange rates are notoriously difficult to predict, and over the short- to medium-run are difficult to tie to economic fundamentals. In the longer-run, exchange rates and/or prices appear to adjust such that purchasing power parity (PPP) holds between countries. Econometric studies have demonstrated that about half of the divergence from PPP is gone after 3 to 5 years. However, this long-run tendency, may not apply to countries whose incomes relative to the rest of the world have undergone sharp changes. (Froot and Rogoff, 1995). Long-term productivity differentials, income differentials, and government spending have all been posited as altering the relationship between a country's exchange rate and its relative prices. Thus, although the U.S. real exchange rate has risen substantially in the last few years, it is not obvious that a significant change is imminent. Reference: Froot, K.A. and K. Rogoff. Perspectives on PPP and Long-Run Real Exchange Rates, In Grossman, G.M. and Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, Vol. 3, Elsevier Science , B.V. 1995. * * * * * The next Cotton and Wool Outlook (CWS-0701) will be released on August 13, 2001. ***************************************************************************** Information Contacts: Leslie Meyer (U.S. Cotton and Textiles) LMEYER@ERS.USDA.GOV (202) 694-5307 Stephen MacDonald (Foreign Cotton) STEPHENM@ERS.USDA.GOV (202) 694-5305 Robert Skinner (Textiles and Wool) RSKINNER@ERS.USDA.GOV (202) 694- 5313 ***************************************************************************** U.S. COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000/01 ----------------------------- Item 1999/2000 May Jun Jul -------------------------------------------------------------------- Upland: Million acres Planted 14.584 15.347 15.347 15.347 Harvested 13.138 12.884 12.884 12.884 Pounds Yield/harvested acre 595 626 626 626 Million 480-lb bales Beginning stocks 3.836 3.672 3.672 3.672 Production 16.294 16.799 16.799 16.799 Total supply 1/ 20.183 20.476 20.476 20.475 Mill use 10.104 9.075 8.875 8.775 Exports 6.303 5.945 6.045 6.150 Total use 16.407 15.020 14.920 14.925 Ending stocks 3.672 5.421 5.521 5.520 Percent Stocks-to-use ratio 22.4 36.1 37.0 37.0 Extra-long staple: 1,000 acres Planted 290 170 170 170 Harvested 287 169 169 169 Pounds Yield/harvested acre 1,128 1,105 1,105 1,105 1,000 480-lb bales Beginning stocks 103 250 250 250 Production 674 389 389 389 Total supply 1/ 821 649 649 645 Mill use 137 125 125 125 Exports 447 455 455 450 Total use 584 580 580 575 Ending stocks 250 79 79 80 Percent Stocks-to-use ratio 42.8 13.6 13.6 13.9 -------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA estimates. 1/ Includes imports. WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000/01 ---------------------------- Item 1999/2000 May Jun Jul -------------------------------------------------------------------- Supply: Million 480-lb bales Beginning stocks World 44.94 41.10 41.22 41.19 Foreign 41.01 37.18 37.30 37.27 Production World 87.30 87.22 87.94 88.00 Foreign 70.33 70.04 70.75 70.81 Imports World 28.42 26.71 26.33 26.67 Foreign 28.32 26.69 26.31 26.66 Use: Mill use World 91.90 91.72 91.67 91.72 Foreign 81.66 82.52 82.67 82.82 Exports World 27.31 26.00 25.96 26.17 Foreign 20.56 19.60 19.46 19.57 Ending stocks World 41.19 37.12 37.66 37.83 Foreign 37.27 31.62 32.06 32.23 Stocks-to-use ratio Percent World 44.8 40.5 41.1 41.2 Foreign 45.6 38.3 38.8 38.9 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA estimates. FIBER SUPPLY---------------------------------------------------------------- 2001 2000 -------------------------- Item Mar Apr May May -------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb bales Ginnings 0 0 0 0 Imports since August 1 8.8 8.9 NA 91.3 Stocks, beginning 12,391 10,906 9,641 8,274 At mills 463 481 478 496 Public storage 10,590 9,307 8,198 6,689 CCC stocks 3,007 2,929 2,531 439 Manmade: Million pounds Production 835.5 761.0 776.8 930.2 Noncellulosic 807.0 732.6 758.6 897.7 Cellulosic 28.5 28.4 18.2 32.5 Total since January 1 2,448.2 3,209.2 3,986.0 4,484.1 2001 2000 ------------------------- Feb Mar Apr Apr --------------------------------------------------------------------- Million pounds Raw fiber imports 107.6 124.6 124.9 135.0 Noncellulosic 103.4 120.8 121.0 130.5 Cellulosic 4.2 3.8 3.9 4.5 Total since January 1 231.0 355.6 480.5 571.1 Wool and Mohair: 1,000 pounds Raw wool imports, clean 4,322 4,273 3,001 4,570 48's-and-finer 2,265 1,869 839 3,197 Not-finer-than-46's 2,114 1,823 2,162 1,373 Total since January 1 9,270 13,543 16,544 17,046 Wool top imports 426 436 338 208 Total since January 1 1,006 1,442 1,780 1,215 Mohair imports, clean 0 0 0 0 Total since January 1 0 0 0 4 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NA = Not available. COTTON SYSTEM FIBER CONSUMPTION -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2001 2000 ------------------------ Item Mar Apr May May --------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb bales All consumed by mills 1/ 765 697 741 931 Total since August 1 1/ 6,192 6,889 7,630 8,605 SA annual rate 2/ 8,714 8,373 8,079 10,155 SA daily rate 2/ 33.4 32.1 31.0 38.9 Daily rate 34.8 33.2 32.2 40.5 Upland consumed by mills 1/ 756 687 730 918 Total since August 1 1/ 6,108 6,795 7,524 8,489 SA daily rate 2/ 32.9 31.6 30.4 38.3 Daily rate 34.3 32.7 31.7 39.9 Spindles in place 3,927 3,916 3,835 4,649 Active spindles 3,676 3,617 3,563 4,454 100 percent cotton 2,017 1,990 1,955 2,440 100 percent manmade 599 593 599 713 Blends 1,061 1,033 1,009 1,301 Percent Cotton's share of fibers 78.5 78.1 78.3 78.3 Manmade: 1,000 pounds Total consumed by mills 1/ 100,581 94,115 98,805 123,870 Total since August 1 1/ 806,015 900,130 998,935 1,127,094 Daily rate 4,572 4,482 4,296 5,386 Noncellulosic staple 4,317 4,240 4,039 5,062 Cellulosic staple 255 242 257 324 -------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Adjusted to calendar month. 2/ SA = seasonally adjusted. FIBER EXPORTS -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2001 2000 ------------------------- Item Feb Mar Apr Apr -------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb bales Upland exports 572 655 537 659 Total since August 1 3,036 3,692 4,229 4,471 Sales for next season 234 491 401 129 Total since August 1 543 1,034 1,435 710 ELS exports 41.5 65.0 31.0 49.8 Total since August 1 264.6 329.6 360.6 285.6 Sales for next season 13.2 6.7 36.0 50.9 Total since August 1 72.4 78.9 114.9 94.0 Manmade: Million pounds Raw fiber exports 84.1 90.0 79.3 90.8 Noncellulosic 75.7 84.4 74.5 86.6 Cellulosic 8.4 5.6 4.8 4.2 Total since January 1 166.3 256.3 335.6 375.7 Wool and Mohair: 1,000 pounds Raw wool exports, clean 247.9 528.4 320.4 480.5 Total since January 1 758.9 1,287.3 1,607.7 1,473.1 Wool top exports 731.5 857.7 466.4 300.4 Total since January 1 898.4 1,756.1 2,222.5 1,640.6 Mohair exports, clean 72.6 130.0 74.9 194.3 Total since January 1 136.3 266.3 341.2 716.8 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FIBER PRICES -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2001 2000 -------------------------- Item Apr May Jun Jun -------------------------------------------------------------------- Cents per pound Domestic cotton prices: Adjusted World Price 37.61 36.77 33.94 46.81 Upland spot 41-34 42.19 40.02 37.38 54.97 Pima spot 03-46 96.50 96.09 95.50 85.24 Avg. price received by: Upland producers 43.50 42.20 42.70 45.10 Mill delivered: Cotton Actual 49.06 47.92 45.06 62.10 Raw fiber equivalent 54.51 53.24 50.07 69.00 Rayon staple Actual 99.00 99.00 99.00 98.00 Raw fiber equivalent 103.13 103.13 103.13 102.08 Polyester staple Actual 62.00 62.00 62.00 58.00 Raw fiber equivalent 64.58 64.58 64.58 60.42 Price ratios Percent Cotton/rayon 52.9 51.6 48.5 67.6 Cotton/polyester 84.4 82.4 77.5 114.2 Northern Europe cotton quotes: Cents per pound A Index 51.24 49.76 47.33 59.56 Memphis Territory 55.50 52.90 51.44 NQ California/Arizona 54.06 52.15 50.31 64.95 B Index 48.74 47.36 45.48 54.16 Orleans/Texas 46.50 44.55 42.81 55.10 Wool prices (clean): Dollars per pound U.S. 56's 0.65 0.71 0.67 0.60 Australian 56's 1/ 1.32 1.36 1.40 1.33 U.S. 60's 0.96 1.07 0.95 0.82 Australian 60's 1/ 1.51 1.54 1.54 1.40 U.S. 64's 1.29 1.37 1.25 1.25 Australian 64's 1/ 1.58 1.64 1.66 1.54 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NQ = No quotes. NA = Not available. 1/ In bond, Charleston, SC. TEXTILE TRADE -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2001 2000 ---------------------------- Item Feb Mar Apr Apr ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Imports: 1,000 pounds 1/ Yarn, thread, and fabric 211,947 246,114 259,723 259,710 Cotton 89,093 109,248 112,940 110,989 Linen 23,378 17,482 27,846 23,386 Wool 2,521 3,258 2,860 5,052 Silk 725 882 715 898 Manmade 96,230 115,244 115,362 119,385 Apparel 674,307 745,356 569,201 593,731 Cotton 426,790 473,559 391,088 372,661 Linen 19,183 19,751 15,405 14,499 Wool 10,379 11,270 11,080 12,381 Silk 14,398 15,217 13,815 12,284 Manmade 203,557 225,559 197,813 181,906 House furnishings 63,559 66,731 63,952 63,527 Cotton 46,918 50,977 48,216 45,804 Linen 1,486 1,117 1,191 1,218 Wool 418 306 271 342 Silk 161 133 120 141 Manmade 14,576 14,198 14,154 16,022 Floor coverings 35,938 37,171 37,988 35,484 Cotton 4,312 4,293 4,612 4,712 Linen 5,714 6,225 5,658 6,233 Wool 11,007 10,075 11,370 10,338 Silk 691 946 700 479 Manmade 14,214 15,632 15,648 13,722 Total imports 2/ 993,233 1,103,689 999,636 960,497 Cotton 571,405 643,091 561,471 538,803 Linen 49,805 44,621 50,155 45,419 Wool 24,422 25,000 26,458 28,180 Silk 15,978 17,179 15,350 13,802 Manmade 331,624 373,797 346,204 334,293 Exports: 1,000 pounds 1/ Yarn, thread, and fabric 233,292 267,067 235,893 223,625 Cotton 100,900 110,523 93,792 85,129 Linen 5,449 6,489 5,983 6,477 Wool 3,580 4,303 3,550 5,057 Silk 2,695 3,350 3,047 2,286 Manmade 120,668 142,402 129,521 124,676 Apparel 156,466 172,369 152,022 169,343 Cotton 90,111 96,714 85,149 104,665 Linen 2,024 2,137 1,920 2,065 Wool 9,818 12,386 10,569 8,363 Silk 5,582 6,857 5,908 4,627 Manmade 48,931 54,275 48,476 49,623 House furnishings 7,090 7,314 6,607 6,336 Cotton 4,497 4,725 4,392 3,937 Linen 133 182 119 199 Wool 80 49 69 60 Silk 60 62 84 58 Manmade 2,320 2,296 1,943 2,082 Floor coverings 29,706 32,958 30,947 36,549 Cotton 2,454 2,857 2,746 2,955 Linen 1,320 1,609 1,579 1,776 Wool 2,872 2,658 2,797 4,004 Silk 55 74 53 94 Manmade 23,005 25,760 23,772 27,720 Total exports 2/ 426,849 480,001 425,724 440,097 Cotton 198,060 214,903 186,156 196,792 Linen 8,936 10,425 9,609 10,526 Wool 16,366 19,414 17,001 17,497 Silk 8,392 10,343 9,092 7,065 Manmade 195,095 224,916 203,866 208,247 -------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Includes headgear. Note: Data for 2001 are preliminary and subject to revision. U.S. COTTON TEXTILE IMPORTS -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2001 2000 ---------------------------- Item Feb Mar Apr Apr -------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 pounds 1/ North America 245,880 285,153 238,053 230,562 Canada 21,932 24,749 23,361 22,599 Costa Rica 8,898 10,278 7,404 9,189 Dominican Republic 18,536 22,213 18,498 21,194 El Salvador 18,905 27,945 21,406 18,033 Guatemala 14,983 18,573 14,006 11,148 Haiti 3,506 4,275 3,690 3,617 Honduras 40,681 45,315 34,666 33,782 Jamaica 2,615 2,355 1,965 2,872 Mexico 110,201 123,093 108,572 105,125 Nicaragua 5,289 5,972 4,126 2,705 South America 13,569 15,211 11,171 11,650 Brazil 5,802 6,607 3,773 5,210 Chile 12 24 43 35 Colombia 3,742 4,239 3,779 2,269 Peru 3,299 3,646 2,898 3,637 Europe 37,330 45,387 41,720 37,432 Germany 823 1,180 1,003 935 Italy 3,625 4,482 4,170 4,161 Portugal 2,939 2,225 2,557 2,891 Russia 2,958 3,776 4,000 2,665 Spain 794 669 668 776 Turkey 17,230 23,376 19,743 17,515 United Kingdom 1,132 1,152 1,138 979 Uzbekistan 963 1,004 1,297 847 Asia 253,419 272,029 247,139 242,877 Bahrain 3,034 3,606 3,536 1,845 Bangladesh 19,763 20,288 16,314 16,543 Brunei 1,836 2,328 1,228 1,061 Burma 5,214 3,917 3,358 3,113 Cambodia 8,840 8,788 6,538 7,316 China 27,890 26,081 29,745 32,178 Hong Kong 19,811 22,268 23,540 32,951 India 27,022 31,818 28,331 30,104 Indonesia 12,317 14,671 11,613 10,704 Israel 3,840 3,732 3,604 3,443 Japan 1,407 1,260 1,516 1,385 Macao 3,820 3,893 3,813 4,292 Malaysia 5,422 5,400 4,645 4,839 Nepal 2,555 3,778 2,522 2,654 Oman 1,584 2,386 1,872 1,496 Pakistan 43,907 47,733 43,025 39,868 Philippines 9,838 11,045 8,677 8,682 Qatar 1,675 2,041 1,495 1,017 Singapore 1,804 1,983 1,728 1,834 South Korea 9,137 10,000 9,652 9,642 Sri Lanka 9,355 9,516 7,259 8,115 Taiwan 8,407 10,674 11,453 9,865 Thailand 12,654 13,176 11,497 12,288 U Arab Em 5,373 4,729 3,976 3,781 Vietnam 1,313 1,057 1,327 888 Oceania 2,515 3,150 3,168 1,810 Australia 1,360 2,068 1,691 724 Africa 18,692 22,161 20,220 14,471 Egypt 8,726 9,744 9,736 6,990 Lesotho 1,943 3,450 2,405 1,377 Mauritius 2,034 1,981 1,496 1,273 Morocco 1,292 1,591 1,017 1,130 South Africa 1,736 2,391 2,202 1,381 World 2/ 571,405 643,091 561,471 538,803 -------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Note: Data for 2001 are preliminary and subject to revision. U.S. COTTON TEXTILE EXPORTS -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2001 2000 --------------------------- Country Feb Mar Apr Apr ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 pounds 1/ North America 176,126 187,445 168,282 176,823 Bahamas 63 91 102 121 Belize 89 65 46 97 Canada 26,671 28,923 27,470 26,836 Costa Rica 7,302 7,336 6,651 7,308 Dominican Republic 15,163 17,527 14,865 18,045 El Salvador 13,467 13,509 12,545 11,675 Guatemala 5,325 6,471 5,248 2,448 Haiti 2,783 2,545 2,267 2,347 Honduras 27,274 28,762 25,205 26,551 Jamaica 2,028 2,257 1,746 1,421 Mexico 74,896 78,552 71,153 78,527 Nicaragua 539 544 369 812 Panama 229 439 268 270 South America 2,693 5,117 3,553 4,080 Argentina 94 115 82 263 Brazil 258 861 676 562 Chile 619 1,527 295 1,039 Colombia 834 1,396 1,273 964 Ecuador 47 133 169 234 Peru 47 62 160 244 Venezuela 604 862 737 620 Europe 11,363 13,483 5,714 7,527 Belgium 1,556 3,044 2,014 2,085 France 269 309 262 643 Germany 744 786 685 678 Ireland 140 144 94 107 Italy 337 361 465 258 Netherlands 5,892 6,125 292 501 Poland 39 92 7 245 Spain 109 276 110 167 Turkey 20 39 40 78 United Kingdom 1,569 1,360 1,168 2,089 Asia 6,318 7,565 7,338 7,349 China 429 381 310 313 Hong Kong 773 825 738 757 Israel 479 255 278 544 Japan 2,808 3,067 2,499 3,544 Malaysia 64 56 49 47 Philippines 151 175 267 258 Saudi Arabia 298 435 297 233 Singapore 184 290 320 281 South Korea 202 318 336 247 Sri Lanka 214 332 149 186 Taiwan 330 221 202 338 U Arab Em 188 124 240 186 Oceania 567 476 603 654 Australia 376 342 484 417 Africa 551 818 666 329 Ivory Coast 19 36 71 1 Morocco 225 91 145 35 Nigeria 72 121 69 106 South Africa 81 131 121 68 World 2/ 198,060 214,903 186,156 196,762 --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Note: Data for 2001 are preliminary and subject to revision. ACTUAL AND PROJECTED COTTON ACREAGE ------------------------------------------------------------------- Projected Projected State/ Actual March June Region 2000 2001 1/ 2001 2/ 2001/2000 ------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 acres Percent Upland: Alabama 590 600 610 103 Florida 130 120 120 92 Georgia 1,500 1,500 1,600 107 N. Carolina 930 1,050 1,060 114 S. Carolina 300 310 300 100 Virginia 110 105 105 95 Southeast 3,560 3,685 3,795 107 Arkansas 960 1,050 1,170 122 Louisiana 710 800 910 128 Mississippi 1,300 1,500 1,700 131 Missouri 400 400 400 100 Tennessee 570 600 610 107 Delta 3,940 4,350 4,790 122 Kansas 40 44 44 110 Oklahoma 280 300 250 89 Texas 6,400 6,000 6,200 97 Southwest 6,720 6,344 6,494 97 Arizona 280 280 280 100 California 775 660 620 80 New Mexico 72 75 75 104 West 1,127 1,015 975 87 Total Upland 15,347 15,394 16,054 105 Pima: Arizona 5 7 6 120 California 145 190 205 141 New Mexico 4 7 7 175 Texas 16 16 17 106 Total Pima 170 220 235 138 Total All 15,517 15,614 16,289 105 ------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Planting intentions as indicated by reports from farmers. 2/ Total acres planted or intended to be planted. FINAL 2000 U.S. COTTON ACREAGE, YIELD, AND PRODUCTION ----------------------------------------------------------- State/ Region Planted Harvested Yield Production ----------------------------------------------------------- Lbs./ 1,000 1,000 acres harvested acre bales Upland: Alabama 495 475 559 553 Florida 89 80 489 81 Georgia 1,370 1,280 578 1,542 N. Carolina 710 705 699 1,026 S. Carolina 290 286 587 350 Virginia 92 91 765 145 Southeast 3,046 2,917 608 3,697 Arkansas 920 900 645 1,209 Louisiana 535 525 586 641 Mississippi 950 940 737 1,444 Missouri 370 357 471 350 Tennessee 450 445 589 546 Delta 3,225 3,167 635 4,190 Kansas 17 17 404 14 Oklahoma 160 120 560 140 Texas 5,650 3,300 524 3,600 Southwest 5,827 3,437 524 3,754 Arizona 250 248 1,177 608 California 650 620 887 1,146 New Mexico 66 60 640 80 West 966 928 949 1,834 Total Upland 13,064 10,449 619 13,476 Pima: Arizona 16 15 830 27 California 200 180 941 353 New Mexico 7 7 658 10 Texas 105 32 791 53 Total Pima 328 235 904 442 Total All 13,392 10,684 625 13,918 ------------------------------------------------------------ Based on USDA's May 2001 Crop Production report. END_OF_FILE