COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK August 13, 2001 August 2001, ERS-CWS-0701 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board -------------------------------------------------------------------------- COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK is issued electronically 10 times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no printed copies available. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Summary: August 2001 The latest United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) cotton forecast for 2001/02 reflects larger production and ending stocks. U.S. production for 2001 is projected at a record 20 million bales, up 4 percent from last months estimate as a result of higher yields. Meanwhile, total demand is unchanged this month at 17.5 million bales. Despite the highest demand in 4 years, U.S. ending stocks are projected to rise dramatically during the season to 8.1 million bales, the largest stock level since 1985/86. World cotton supply and demand projections feature record production and consumption in 2001/02. Global production is estimated at nearly 96 million bales, slightly above the 1991/92 crop of 95.8 million. This month's increase in world output is largely attributable to gains in the United States and China. Similarly, world cotton consumption is currently forecast at 92.6 million bales. While a slightly smaller forecast than a month earlier, growth in cotton demand of nearly 1 percent is still expected this season. With world production outpacing consumption, 2001/02 ending stocks are projected to rise 9 percent to 41.5 million bales, up from last season but similar to 1999/2000. However, the United States is expected to hold nearly 20 percent of these stocks, unlike the 10 percent held in 1999/2000. U.S. Production: U.S. 2001 Cotton Output Projected At Record According to USDAs first survey-based estimate of the 2001 cotton crop, U.S. production is forecast at a record 20 million bales this season, up 4 percent (800,000 bales) from last months projection and 16 percent above last season. If realized, the 2001 crop would surpass the 1994 record output of nearly 19.7 million bales. Upland production is forecast at a record 19.4 million bales, while the extra-long staple (ELS) crop is projected at 593,000 bales, 52 percent above last season but 12 percent below the 1999 crop. During the previous 20 years, the August forecast has been above final cotton production 10 times and below 10 times. Past differences between the August forecast and the final production estimate indicate that chances are two out of three for the 2001 U.S. cotton crop to range between 18.4 and 21.6 million bales. Compared with last season, upland production is expected to rise in each region of the Cotton Belt, except in the West, where area was 13 percent lower this season. The largest increase, as well as the highest output in 2001, is anticipated from the Delta region. Production is expected to rise 1.6 million bales this season to over 6.9 million, slightly above the 1994 record in the Delta. The Southeast, for the second year in a row, is expected to contribute the next largest output. Acreage continues to expand in this region as in the Delta as lower production costs and limited viable alternatives pushed cotton acreage higher for the third consecutive season. Cotton area reached 3.7 million acres in 2001, its highest since 1953. Similarly, production is projected to expand nearly 1 million bales this season to about 5.3 million, the largest regional output since 1926. In the Southwest, weather conditions have once again taken its toll on this years crop. As of August 2001, cotton area abandonment is estimated at 27 percent (1.8 million acres) for the region, compared with 32 percent (2.1 million) last season. Despite harvested area in the region equal to that in the Delta, lower yields indicate an upland crop of 4.6 million bales, which is below last season but equal to the 10-year average. In the West, where upland area declined 150,000 acres this season, production is estimated at 2.6 million bales. With lower area in the region and yield below last seasons record, the upland crop is forecast 500,000 bales lower in 2001. While accounting for only 13 percent of the U.S. upland crop in 2001, the West has fallen significantly from the 1980s average share of 32 percent. However, ELS production in the West is expected to expand significantly this season as area shifted out of upland production. The ELS crop at 593,000 bales is forecast to be the third largest crop on record. California continues to dominate ELS production, accounting for 91 percent in 2001. Total planted area to cotton is estimated at 16.2 million acres, and abandonment is projected at 11 percent or slightly below the 5-year average of 12 percent. As a result, U.S. cotton to be harvested is forecast at 14.3 million acres, 10 percent above last season and the highest since 1995 when 16 million acres were harvested. Based on the harvested area, the national yield is estimated at 670 pounds per acre, 38 pounds above 2000 and 22 pounds above the 5-year average. U.S. Demand: 2001/02 Estimates Unchanged; 2000/01 Revised Total 2001/02 demand for U.S. cotton remains estimated at 17.5 million bales; domestic mill use is estimated at 8.5 million bales, while exports are projected at 9 million. U.S. mill use is forecast 4 percent below last season as U.S. mills continue to struggle to remain competitive with imported products in light of the U.S. dollars strength. While growth is expected in U.S. retail demand for cotton products this season, the lower cost imports are expected to meet this demand. On the other hand, U.S. exports are forecast to rise by one-third this season. With foreign import demand estimated nearly 2 million bales higher in 2001/02, the abundant supplies in the United States are expected to provide much of this increase. By the start of the season, U.S. export commitments including carryover from 2000/01 had already reached approximately 5 million bales or 56 percent of projected shipments. Based on the current estimates, the U.S. export share of world trade approaches 32 percent, significantly above last season and the highest since 1994/95s 33 percent. For the 2000/01 season, U.S. exports were raised 100,000 bales to 6.7 million while mill use was lowered 50,000 to 8.85 million, both reflecting recent activity. The estimates for 2000/01 will be finalized over the course of the next several months as end-of-season data become available. Foreign Production: Output Higher for 2001/02 Foreign production in 2001/02 is forecast 500,000 bales higher than it was in July, at 76 million bales. Production changes include increases in China (500,000 bales), India (200,000 bales), Turkey (100,000 bales), and Myanmar (70,000 bales), and reductions in Brazil (200,000 bales), Uzbekistan (100,000 bales), and Zimbabwe (50,000 bales). The small increase in Myanmar is a continuation of increased estimates of output there during the previous 2 years based on press reports and data from the International Monetary Fund and the Food and Agriculture Organization. Increased output estimates for China, India, and Turkey stem from indications that either area planted (China) or crop conditions (India and Turkey) for 2001/02 are better than expected a month ago. However, decreased output estimates for Brazil and Uzbekistan stem from indications that either area planted (Brazil) or crop conditions (Uzbekistan) for 2001/02 are worse than expected a month ago. Foreign consumption in 2001/02 is forecast at about the same level as it was in July, at 84.1 million bales. Decreased forecasts for Brazil (150,000 bales), Mexico (100,000 bales), and others are nearly offset by increased forecasts for Uzbekistan (100,000 bales) and others. Foreign Imports: Decline Follows Chinas Prospects Foreign imports in 2001/02 are forecast 340,000 bales lower than they were in July, at 28.5 million bales. With lower consumption expected for Mexico, Mexicos 2001/02 imports are forecast 100,000 bales lower than they were in July, but most of the decline in expected foreign imports reflects reduced prospects in China. The forecast for Chinas cotton imports in 2001/02 is 250,000 bales lower this month than in July, but is still 750,000 bales higher than Chinas imports during 2000/01. At 1 million bales, Chinas 2001/02 imports are also forecast 500,000 bales above exports. Chinas textile industry has been pressing the government for additional import quota for quite some time, and an increase in imports is widely expected in the next year. Chinas cotton imports have been below 50,000 bales every month since July 1998, averaging 20,000 bales per month. And, while China has opened more import quotas as time has passed in the last year, imports have not increased to any significant extent, remaining well below the rate necessary to reach USDAs forecast of 1 million bales in 2001/02. Furthermore, the volume of cotton auctioned through the China National Cotton Exchange rose in July to its highest level since January, and prices at the auctions and elsewhere in China fell beginning at the end of June. Also, with the threat of drought-impacts diminishing on the North China Plain, and an increase in updated government estimates of this years planted area, China is now expected to produce its largest cotton crop since 1991s extraordinary 26 million bales. Output in 2001/02 is forecast more than 2 million bales above a year earlier, at 22.5 million bales. Since the forecasted need for imports is predicated upon the notion that supplies of reasonably-priced spinnable cotton are diminishing in China, these developments suggest that the rebound in Chinas imports continues to recede into the future. An examination of the timing and circumstances of Chinas previous import shifts should cast some light on how this years events might affect the timing of Chinas import policy decisions. Using Chinas purchases of U.S. cotton as a proxy for its total purchases (since the U.S. data are readily available through Export Sales), one can identify three episodes where China resumed importing after a significant hiatus: November 1977, December 1988, and January 1994. Since 1977 precedes Chinas 1978 economic reorientation, it probably provides the least insight into how a resumption of Chinas imports might look in the future. For the record, U.S. exports to China resumed in November 1977 after a 2-year hiatus, and the first small sales occurred late in marketing year 1976, and rose slowly over the next few months. U.S. shipments to China continued at varying levels until May 1982. Then followed a more than 6-year hiatus in U.S. shipments to China, which resumed in December 1988. The first 1988 sales to China were reported in late October 1988, and U.S. shipments to China began in mid-December. Shipments to China continued at varying levels through June 1992. Then followed a brief hiatus in shipments to China, which the United States resumed January 1994. The first sales to China for this run of shipments were reported in early December 1993, and shipments continued through April 1998 (Chinas monthly import data confirms this pattern for Chinas shipments from all sources, following the same pattern with a 2-3 month lag). The span of months encompassing the beginning of the last two times China shifted into importing covers October to December. This could correspond to the season during which procurement efforts have traditionally revealed the level of Chinas crop. In 1988, production was slightly smaller than during the year before, but compared favorably with the preceding 3 years. Stocks/use in 1988 fell for the fourth consecutive year, even with the larger imports. In 1993, production was substantially lower than during the preceding year, and about 9 million bales lower than it had been 2 years earlier. Stocks/use fell in 1993 for only the second consecutive year. Chinas 2001/02 production and ending stock forecasts hold mixed signals compared with these past developments. Chinas 2001/02 crop is forecast to rise for the second consecutive year, but stocks/use is expected to fall for the second consecutive year. The stocks/use ratio in 2001/02 is forecast to fall about 60 points from its recent peak, which would be a proportional drop comparable with those during the three previous import shifts, suggesting a comparable pressure for imports. However, the stocks/use level USDA is forecasting for the end of 2001/02 is 46 percent, well above the 20-27 percent range of the 3 earlier years of import shifts. Presumably, a larger share of stocks are unspinnable compared with these earlier years. In addition to the usual uncertainty about the level and condition of Chinas stocks, Chinas ongoing agricultural reforms and progressive movement toward WTO membership are also factors in its import policy. The domestic cost of clearing the books and warehouses of high-priced cotton are reduced while importing is prohibited, and anticipation of growing future competition from both foreign and domestic sources may provide an incentive for the government to maximize it options for import restraint while it still can. U.S. Textile Trade: Textile Trade Rebounds in May May textile imports, at 1.1 billion pounds (raw-fiber equivalent), rebounded from a month earlier and were slightly above a year ago. Imports of cotton, wool, and manmade fibers increased compared with a month earlier. Larger shipments occured for all textile end-use categories except yarn, thread, and fabric. Cotton textile imports, at 641 million pounds, were 14 percent above April and 3 percent above a year ago. Cotton apparel imports accounted for 72 percent of the shipments in May. Cotton imports from Asia rose to 280 million pounds, up 13 percent from a month earlier. Textile exports increased in May to 444 million pounds, up 4 percent from April and a year earlier. Exports of all major fibers, except linen, increased from a month earlier. Larger shipments of textiles of all major end-use categories, except home furnishings, also occurred in May, compared with April shipments. Cotton textile exports, at 191 million pounds, were 3 percent above a month earlier. Cotton textile exports to North America, at 173 million pounds, rose 3 percent above a month earlier. Overall, the May textile trade deficit was 658 million pounds, with cotton accounting for 68 percent of the total. The May deficit was 16 million pounds below a year earlier. However, the deficit for the first 5 months of 2001 was 3.2 billion pounds, compared with 3.1 billion a year ago. The cotton trade deficit reached 2.1 billion pounds (4.4 million bale- equivalents) during January-May, compared with 2.0 billion pounds in 2000. * * * * * The next Cotton and Wool Outlook (CWS-0801) will be released on September 13, 2001. ***************************************************************************** Debate on the 2002 farm bill is intensifying, with a wide range of ideas emerging on how best to address the needs of farmers and other constituencies. A recently released ERS report, Cotton: Background and Issues for Farm Legislation, provides information on topics important to the debate, including market conditions, policy proposals, WTO considerations, and the interactions between policy and markets. This online-only report is the first of occasional Outlook supplements on cotton that will provide timely analysis on specific topics. Readers will no longer have to wait for the Cotton and Wool Situation and Outlook Yearbook for all of the in-depth special reports on the cotton sector. ***************************************************************************** Information Contacts: Leslie Meyer (U.S. Cotton and Textiles)LMEYER@ERS.USDA.GOV (202) 694-5307 Stephen MacDonald (Foreign Cotton)STEPHENM@ERS.USDA.GOV (202) 694-5305 Robert Skinner (Textiles and Wool)RSKINNER@ERS.USDA.GOV (202) 694-5313 U.S. COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2001/02 ----------------------------- Item 2000/01 Jun Jul Aug ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Planted 15.347 15.394 16.054 15.959 Harvested 12.884 14.000 14.200 14.104 Pounds Yield/harvested acre 626 626 630 661 Million 480-lb bales Beginning stocks 3.672 5.521 5.520 5.449 Production 16.799 18.266 18.650 19.410 Total supply 1/ 20.474 23.787 24.170 24.859 Mill use 8.730 8.680 8.385 8.385 Exports 6.265 8.565 8.555 8.540 Total use 14.995 17.245 16.940 16.925 Ending stocks 5.449 6.522 7.210 7.961 Percent Stocks-to-use ratio 36.3 37.8 42.6 47.0 Extra-long staple: 1,000 acres Planted 170 230 235 235 Harvested 169 228 233 234 Pounds Yield/harvested acre 1,105 1,124 1,133 1.216 1,000 480-lb bales Beginning stocks 250 79 80 101 Production 389 534 550 593 Total supply 1/ 646 623 640 704 Mill use 120 120 115 115 Exports 435 435 445 460 Total use 555 555 560 575 Ending stocks 101 78 90 139 Percent Stocks-to-use ratio 18.2 14.1 16.1 24.2 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA estimates. 1/ Includes imports. WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2001/02 ----------------------------- Item 2000/01 Jun Jul Aug ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Supply: Million 480-lb bales Beginning stocks World 41.22 37.66 37.83 38.02 Foreign 37.30 32.06 32.23 32.47 Production World 88.27 93.50 94.63 95.95 Foreign 71.08 74.70 75.43 75.95 Imports World 26.63 28.00 28.83 28.49 Foreign 26.62 27.99 28.82 28.48 Use: Mill use World 91.77 92.80 92.69 92.60 Foreign 82.92 84.00 84.19 84.10 Exports World 26.18 27.70 28.52 28.24 Foreign 19.48 18.70 19.52 19.24 Ending stocks World 38.02 38.36 39.96 41.53 Foreign 32.47 31.76 32.66 33.43 Stocks-to-use ratio Percent World 41.4 41.3 43.1 44.8 Foreign 39.2 37.8 38.8 39.8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA estimates. FIBER SUPPLY -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2001 2000 --------------------------- Item Apr May Jun Jun -------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb bales Ginnings 0 0 0 0 Imports since August 1 8.9 10.0 NA 94.8 Stocks, beginning 10,906 9,641 8,201 6,667 At mills 481 478 464 487 Public storage 9,307 8,198 7,204 5,381 CCC stocks 2,929 2,531 2,366 350 Manmade: Million pounds Production 734.5 756.0 720.3 873.6 Noncellulosic 716.3 737.8 710.6 845.4 Cellulosic 18.2 18.2 9.7 28.2 Total since January 1 3,099.0 3,855.0 4,575.3 5,133.7 2001 2000 ------------------------- Mar Apr May May --------------------------------------------------------------------- Million pounds Raw fiber imports 124.6 124.9 133.5 146.4 Noncellulosic 120.8 121.0 131.0 140.9 Cellulosic 3.8 3.9 2.5 5.5 Total since January 1 355.6 480.5 614.0 717.5 Wool and Mohair: 1,000 pounds Raw wool imports, clean 4,273 1,489 2,855 5,060 48's-and-finer 1,869 839 1,394 2,793 Not-finer-than-46's 1,823 650 1,199 2,267 Total since January 1 13,543 15,038 17,893 22,106 Wool top imports 436 338 243 1,117 Total since January 1 1,442 1,780 2,023 4,102 Mohair imports, clean 0 0 0 0 Total since January 1 0 0 0 0 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NA = Not available. COTTON SYSTEM FIBER CONSUMPTION -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2001 2000 ------------------------ Item Apr May Jun Jun -------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb bales All consumed by mills 1/ 697 749 632 906 Total since August 1 1/ 6,889 7,638 8,270 9,511 SA annual rate 2/ 8,373 8,109 7,841 10,461 SA daily rate 2/ 32.1 31.1 30.0 40.1 Daily rate 33.2 32.5 30.1 41.2 Upland consumed by mills 1/ 687 739 623 894 Total since August 1 1/ 6,795 7,534 8,157 9,383 SA daily rate 2/ 31.6 30.6 29.6 39.6 Daily rate 32.7 32.1 29.7 40.6 Spindles in place 3,916 3,836 3,842 4,629 Active spindles 3,617 3,560 3,571 4,427 100 percent cotton 1,990 1,956 2,007 2,435 100 percent manmade 593 598 582 702 Blends 1,033 1,006 982 1,290 Percent Cotton's share of fibers 78.1 78.3 78.2 78.6 Manmade: 1,000 pounds Total consumed by mills 1/ 94,115 99,332 84,629 118,098 Total since August 1 1/ 900,130 999,461 1,084,090 1,245,192 Daily rate 4,482 4,319 4,030 5,368 Noncellulosic staple 4,240 4,067 3,821 5,070 Cellulosic staple 242 252 209 298 -------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Adjusted to calendar month. 2/ SA = seasonally adjusted. FIBER EXPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 2001 2000 ------------------------- Item Mar Apr May May ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb bales Upland exports 655 537 661 630 Total since August 1 3,692 4,229 4,890 5,587 Sales for next season 491 401 451 191 Total since August 1 1,034 1,435 1,886 901 ELS exports 65.0 31.0 31.5 54.1 Total since August 1 329.6 360.6 392.1 339.6 Sales for next season 6.7 36.0 26.6 40.9 Total since August 1 78.9 114.9 141.5 134.9 Manmade: Million pounds Raw fiber exports 90.0 79.3 77.8 95.4 Noncellulosic 84.4 74.5 75.0 87.7 Cellulosic 5.6 4.8 2.8 7.7 Total since January 1 256.3 335.6 413.4 471.1 Wool and Mohair: 1,000 pounds Raw wool exports, clean 528.4 320.4 634.3 923.0 Total since January 1 1,287.3 1,607.7 2,242.0 2,396.1 Wool top exports 857.7 466.4 622.7 448.0 Total since January 1 1,756.1 2,222.5 2,845.2 2,088.6 Mohair exports, clean 130.0 74.9 351.8 350.7 Total since January 1 266.3 341.2 693.0 1,067.5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FIBER PRICES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 2001 2000 -------------------------- Item May Jun Jul Jul ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cents per pound Domestic cotton prices: Adjusted World Price 36.77 33.94 31.55 45.51 Upland spot 41-34 40.02 37.38 37.48 55.13 Pima spot 03-46 96.09 95.50 93.40 88.11 Avg. price received by: Upland producers 42.20 40.40 38.70 48.80 Mill delivered: Cotton Actual 47.92 45.06 44.83 61.05 Raw fiber equivalent 53.24 50.07 49.81 67.83 Rayon staple Actual 99.00 99.00 99.00 98.00 Raw fiber equivalent 103.13 103.13 103.13 102.08 Polyester staple Actual 62.00 62.00 62.00 58.00 Raw fiber equivalent 64.58 64.58 64.58 60.42 Price ratios Percent Cotton/rayon 51.6 48.5 48.3 66.4 Cotton/polyester 82.4 77.5 77.1 112.3 Northern Europe cotton quotes: Cents per pound A Index 49.76 47.33 45.55 58.40 Memphis Territory 52.90 51.44 50.56 NQ California/Arizona 52.15 50.31 49.94 63.44 B Index 47.36 45.48 44.20 53.49 Orleans/Texas 44.55 42.81 42.50 54.44 Wool prices (clean): Dollars per pound U.S. 56's 0.71 0.67 0.67 0.55 Australian 56's 1/ 1.36 1.40 1.42 1.32 U.S. 60's 1.07 0.95 0.92 0.80 Australian 60's 1/ 1.54 1.59 1.63 1.43 U.S. 64's 1.37 1.25 1.27 1.25 Australian 64's 1/ 1.64 1.66 1.67 1.55 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NQ = No quotes. NA = Not available. 1/ In bond, Charleston, SC. TEXTILE TRADE ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 2001 2000 ---------------------------- Item Mar Apr May May ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Imports: 1,000 pounds 1/ Yarn, thread, and fabric 246,114 259,723 257,994 287,316 Cotton 109,248 112,940 118,631 126,423 Linen 17,482 27,846 15,944 20,315 Wool 3,258 2,860 2,975 5,316 Silk 882 715 791 969 Manmade 15,244 115,362 119,653 134,293 Apparel 745,356 569,201 724,085 689,510 Cotton 473,559 391,088 460,526 432,169 Linen 19,751 15,405 16,878 15,757 Wool 11,270 11,080 13,911 16,374 Silk 15,217 13,815 11,264 12,497 Manmade 225,559 197,813 221,506 212,713 House furnishings 66,731 63,952 68,954 73,977 Cotton 50,977 48,216 51,740 51,945 Linen 1,117 1,191 1,441 1,612 Wool 306 271 361 384 Silk 133 120 150 154 Manmade 14,198 14,154 15,262 19,882 Floor coverings 37,171 37,988 42,261 42,441 Cotton 4,293 4,612 5,494 5,544 Linen 6,225 5,658 6,511 6,827 Wool 10,075 11,370 11,813 12,038 Silk 946 700 953 786 Manmade 15,632 15,648 17,490 17,246 Total imports 2/ 1,103,689 999,636 1,102,783 1,102,230 Cotton 643,091 561,471 641,391 621,419 Linen 44,621 50,155 40,839 44,581 Wool 25,000 26,458 29,737 34,214 Silk 17,179 15,350 13,158 14,406 Manmade 373,797 346,204 377,658 387,609 Exports: 1,000 pounds 1/ Yarn, thread, and fabric 267,067 235,893 248,452 219,898 Cotton 110,523 93,792 96,588 84,203 Linen 6,489 5,983 5,479 6,132 Wool 4,303 3,550 4,046 5,647 Silk 3,350 3,047 3,420 2,169 Manmade 142,402 129,521 138,919 121,747 Apparel 172,369 152,022 154,756 166,141 Cotton 96,714 85,149 87,447 103,449 Linen 2,137 1,920 1,940 2,271 Wool 12,386 10,569 10,664 8,397 Silk 6,857 5,908 5,734 4,536 Manmade 54,275 48,476 48,971 47,488 House furnishings 7,314 6,607 6,529 6,973 Cotton 4,725 4,392 4,161 4,159 Linen 182 119 174 197 Wool 49 69 55 60 Silk 62 84 117 99 Manmade 2,296 1,943 2,022 2,458 Floor coverings 32,958 30,947 34,308 35,221 Cotton 2,857 2,746 2,755 2,614 Linen 1,609 1,579 1,459 1,616 Wool 2,658 2,797 3,427 3,312 Silk 74 53 50 91 Manmade 25,760 23,772 26,617 27,588 Total exports 2/ 480,001 425,724 444,299 428,487 Cotton 214,903 186,156 191,028 194,495 Linen 10,425 9,609 9,059 10,222 Wool 19,414 17,001 18,214 17,429 Silk 10,343 9,092 9,320 6,895 Manmade 224,916 203,866 216,678 199,447 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Includes headgear. Note: Data for 2001 are preliminary and subject to revision. U.S. COTTON TEXTILE IMPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 2001 2000 ---------------------------- Item Mar Apr May May ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 pounds 1/ North America 285,153 238,053 278,324 269,130 Canada 24,749 23,361 24,021 24,738 Costa Rica 10,278 7,404 9,557 10,717 Dominican Republic 22,213 18,498 21,934 22,424 El Salvador 27,945 21,406 24,237 21,054 Guatemala 18,573 14,006 15,411 10,822 Haiti 4,275 3,690 3,564 4,533 Honduras 45,315 34,666 41,827 38,522 Jamaica 2,355 1,965 2,180 2,913 Mexico 123,093 108,572 129,572 128,461 Nicaragua 5,972 4,126 5,793 4,667 South America 15,211 11,171 13,080 13,732 Brazil 6,607 3,773 5,088 5,555 Chile 24 43 23 30 Colombia 4,239 3,779 3,853 3,784 Peru 3,646 2,898 3,563 3,570 Europe 45,387 41,720 44,702 46,725 Germany 1,180 1,003 997 901 Italy 4,482 4,170 3,554 4,281 Portugal 2,225 2,557 3,903 4,183 Russia 3,776 4,000 4,122 3,830 Spain 669 668 809 1,252 Turkey 23,376 19,743 21,737 22,310 United Kingdom 1,152 1,138 983 1,259 Uzbekistan 1,004 1,297 2,007 1,384 Asia 272,029 247,139 279,821 274,556 Bahrain 3,606 3,536 3,381 3,281 Bangladesh 20,288 16,314 21,107 17,254 Brunei 2,328 1,228 1,899 1,617 Burma 3,917 3,358 3,996 3,514 Cambodia 8,788 6,538 7,921 7,146 China 26,081 29,745 32,933 35,984 Hong Kong 22,268 23,540 28,945 28,622 India 31,818 28,331 28,939 31,907 Indonesia 14,671 11,613 14,392 13,165 Israel 3,732 3,604 4,069 3,125 Japan 1,260 1,516 1,457 1,696 Macao 3,893 3,813 5,553 4,943 Malaysia 5,400 4,645 6,205 6,399 Nepal 3,778 2,522 1,674 2,398 Oman 2,386 1,872 1,799 1,649 Pakistan 47,733 43,025 49,357 46,335 Philippines 11,045 8,677 9,547 9,983 Qatar 2,041 1,495 1,073 780 Singapore 1,983 1,728 1,721 2,272 South Korea 10,000 9,652 11,331 10,768 Sri Lanka 9,516 7,259 7,206 6,419 Taiwan 10,674 11,453 12,701 12,860 Thailand 13,176 11,497 11,752 13,452 U Arab Em 4,729 3,976 3,742 3,729 Vietnam 1,057 1,327 1,320 1,734 Oceania 3,150 3,168 3,200 1,967 Australia 2,068 1,691 1,881 1,073 Africa 22,161 20,220 22,265 15,309 Egypt 9,744 9,736 8,956 6,454 Lesotho 3,450 2,405 3,389 1,825 Mauritius 1,981 1,496 1,900 2,096 Morocco 1,591 1,017 1,614 961 South Africa 2,391 2,202 3,192 1,638 World 2/ 643,091 561,471 641,391 621,419 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Note: Data for 2001 are preliminary and subject to revision. U.S. COTTON TEXTILE EXPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 2001 2000 --------------------------- Country Mar Apr May May ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 pounds 1/ North America 187,445 168,282 173,031 176,666 Bahamas 91 102 87 148 Belize 65 46 76 45 Canada 28,923 27,470 28,005 28,473 Costa Rica 7,336 6,651 7,287 9,170 Dominican Republic 17,527 14,865 15,697 18,771 El Salvador 13,509 12,545 12,864 11,216 Guatemala 6,471 5,248 4,865 3,165 Haiti 2,545 2,267 3,754 1,527 Honduras 28,762 25,205 24,940 21,951 Jamaica 2,257 1,746 2,233 1,466 Mexico 78,552 71,153 72,651 79,092 Nicaragua 544 369 365 1,295 Panama 439 268 159 136 South America 5,117 3,553 3,951 4,343 Argentina 115 82 145 149 Brazil 861 676 546 645 Chile 1,527 295 369 692 Colombia 1,396 1,273 1,234 1,314 Ecuador 133 169 222 205 Peru 62 160 102 45 Venezuela 862 737 1,149 1,171 Europe 13,483 5,714 6,452 5,978 Belgium 3,044 2,014 2,653 1,850 France 309 262 351 285 Germany 786 685 454 516 Ireland 144 94 80 109 Italy 361 465 524 293 Netherlands 6,125 292 385 328 Poland 92 7 55 157 Spain 276 110 80 103 Turkey 39 40 38 60 United Kingdom 1,360 1,168 1,132 1,681 Asia 7,565 7,338 6,414 6,574 China 381 310 349 298 Hong Kong 825 738 687 1,086 Israel 255 278 397 326 Japan 3,067 2,499 2,238 2,690 Malaysia 56 49 45 41 Philippines 175 267 441 258 Saudi Arabia 435 297 439 258 Singapore 290 320 242 322 South Korea 318 336 220 352 Sri Lanka 332 149 90 193 Taiwan 221 202 198 238 U Arab Em 124 240 135 148 Oceania 476 603 587 577 Australia 342 484 476 468 Africa 818 666 593 358 Ivory Coast 36 71 28 11 Morocco 91 145 94 35 Nigeria 121 69 177 62 South Africa 131 121 59 51 World 2/ 214,903 186,156 191,028 194,495 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Note: Data for 2001 are preliminary and subject to revision. ACREAGE, YIELD, AND PRODUCTION ESTIMATES FOR 2001 ------------------------------------------------------------------- State/ Region Harvested Yield Production ------------------------------------------------------------------- Lbs./ 1,000 acres harvested acre 1,000 bales Upland: Alabama 605 682 860 Florida 124 650 168 Georgia 1,490 680 2,110 N. Carolina 1,055 701 1,540 S. Carolina 296 681 420 Virginia 104 743 161 Southeast 3,674 687 5,259 Arkansas 1,150 714 1,710 Louisiana 900 693 1,300 Mississippi 1,680 743 2,600 Missouri 395 632 520 Tennessee 605 643 810 Delta 4,730 704 6,940 Kansas 37 272 21 Oklahoma 200 480 200 Texas 4,500 469 4,400 Southwest 4,737 468 4,621 Arizona 278 1,260 730 California 615 1,366 1,750 New Mexico 70 754 110 West 963 1,291 2,590 Total Upland 14,104 661 19,410 Pima: Arizona 6 960 12 California 204 1,271 540 New Mexico 7 686 10 Texas 17 875 31 Total Pima 234 1,216 593 Total All 14,338 670 20,003 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA's August Crop Production report. FINAL 2000 U.S. COTTON ACREAGE, YIELD, AND PRODUCTION ---------------------------------------------------------------- State/ Region Planted Harvested Yield Production ---------------------------------------------------------------- Lbs./ 1,000 1,000 acres harvested acre bales Upland: Alabama 495 475 559 553 Florida 89 80 489 81 Georgia 1,370 1,280 578 1,542 N. Carolina 710 705 699 1,026 S. Carolina 290 286 587 350 Virginia 92 91 765 145 Southeast 3,046 2,917 608 3,697 Arkansas 920 900 645 1,209 Louisiana 535 525 586 641 Mississippi 950 940 737 1,444 Missouri 370 357 471 350 Tennessee 450 445 589 546 Delta 3,225 3,167 635 4,190 Kansas 17 17 404 14 Oklahoma 160 120 560 140 Texas 5,650 3,300 524 3,600 Southwest 5,827 3,437 524 3,754 Arizona 250 248 1,177 608 California 650 620 887 1,146 New Mexico 66 60 640 80 West 966 928 949 1,834 Total Upland 13,064 10,449 619 13,476 Pima: Arizona 16 15 830 27 California 200 180 941 353 New Mexico 7 7 658 10 Texas 105 32 791 53 Total Pima 328 235 904 442 Total All 13,392 10,684 625 13,918 ---------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA's May 2001 Crop Production report. END_OF_FILE