COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK October 15, 2001 October 2001, ERS-CWS-0901 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board -------------------------------------------------------------------------- COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK is issued electronically 10 times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no printed copies available. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Summary The latest United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) cotton forecast for 2001/02 reflects a slight increase in U.S. ending stocks as a result of a larger crop estimate. U.S. cotton production is projected at a record 20.1 million bales this season up 80,000 bales this month with the national yield expected to be its highest in 5 years. With U.S. mill use and export estimates unchanged from September at a 8.8 million, the highest since 1985/86. Foreign production in 2001/02 is estimated at 76 million bales, nearly 5 million above last season and largely the result of increased area. In addition, the projected output is the highest since 1991/92s record. Foreign cotton use is forecast to reach a record, at 83.8 million bales this season, 1 million higher than 2000/01. Meanwhile, 2001/02 ending stocks are projected more than 4 percent higher than a year ago at 34.5 million bales. Excluding China, foreign stocks as a ratio of use are forecast at one of their highest levels ever, 30 percent. The global (excluding China) ratio of ending stocks to use is forecast at 36 percent, well above the 1990s average of 32 percent. .S. 2001 Cotton Crop Holds at Record According to the USDA October survey of the 2001 cotton crop, U.S. production is forecast at nearly 20.1 million bales, slightly above last month but nearly 17 percent higher than 2000/01. Upland production is projected at a record 19.5 million bales, while the extra-long staple (ELS) crop is estimated at 615,000 bales. During the previous 20 years, the October forecast has been below final production 13 times and above 7 times. And, past differences between the October forecast and the final production estimate indicate that chances are two out of three for the 2001 U.S. cotton crop to range between 19.2 and 20.9 million bales. Compared with last season, upland production is projected to rise in each region of the Cotton Belt except the West. In the Delta region, upland output is expected to reach 6.8 million bales, the highest since 1994/95s record of 6.9 million. The Delta yield of 717 pounds per harvested acre is the highest in 4 years. For the Southeast this season, production is forecast to surpass 5 million bales for the first time since the 1937 season. The regional yield is expected to average above 700 pounds, the highest in 5 years. In the Southwest, large abandonment once again this season is expected to limit the upland output to near the 5-year average of 4.6 million bales. With nearly 1.8 million acres projected to be abandoned this season in the region nearly all in Texas the Southwest yield is estimated below the 5-year average of 480 pounds per harvested acre. In the West, upland output is estimated at 2.7 million bales, 400,000 below last season and the result of area moving out of upland production. However, favorable weather this season has boosted the regional yield to 1,314 pounds per harvested acre, slightly below last seasons high of 1,335 pounds. While upland output has declined, ELS production in the West is expected to rise significantly. Total ELS production is projected at 615,000 bales, compared with 389,000 bales last season. California continues to take the lead in ELS production and is projected to account for over 90 percent of the ELS crop in 2001. Despite a relatively high U.S. abandonment projected at 13 percent, cotton harvested area estimated at 14.1 million acres remains the second largest in about 40 years. Based on the latest production estimate, the national yield is estimated at 681 pounds per harvested acre, the highest in 5 years. Although the development cotton bolls opening of the U.S. cotton crop this season falls between the 5-year average and last season, harvest across the Cotton Belt has generally fallen behind as wet weather has slowed progress. As of October 7th, 29 percent of the 2001 cotton area had been harvested, compared with 41 percent last season and a 5-year average of 32 percent. While harvest progress is lower in most of the States this season, several Delta and Southwestern States have fallen well behind their respective harvest progress of 2000. As a result, 2001 cotton ginnings are reported lower than a year ago. As of October 1st, 2 million running bales had been ginned, compared with about 3.3 million at this time last year. U.S. 2001/02 Demand Unchanged; Stocks Higher Despite a weak outlook for U.S. and world textile demand, projections for U.S. mill use and exports are unchanged from September. Total demand for U.S. cotton is forecast to reach 17.3 million bales, nearly 11 percent above 2000/01, with a jump in exports this season more than offsetting a continued decline in mill use. U.S. cotton exports are currently forecast at 9 million bales, one-third higher than the 2000/01 estimate. Large U.S. supplies of exportable cotton coupled with the strong sales to date are expected to push U.S. shipments to their highest since 1994/95. And, despite stagnant global demand, the U.S. marketing loan program is keeping U.S. cotton competitive around the world. Based on the current projections of U.S. and world trade, the U.S. share of global exports is estimated at 32 percent, up from about 26 percent in 2000/01. In contrast, U.S. mill use this season is currently estimated at 8.3 million bales, 6.5 percent below 2000/01 and nearly a 2-million-bale decline over the last two seasons as major restructuring in the U.S. textile and apparel industry occurred. Playing a crucial role in the amount of raw cotton consumed by U.S. mills this season will be the level and origin of cotton textile imports. While data are not yet available for 2001/02, cotton textile imports for the first 7 months of 2001 are only 3 percent higher than during the comparable 2000 period despite the strong U.S. dollar. Recent events are also expected to allow domestic mills to retain a slightly larger share of U.S. retail demand in 2001/02 due to the higher cost and longer response time required for shipping textile and apparel products from south and east Asia. The Caribbean Basin Initiative (CBI) partnerships may help supplant imports from other regions that historically do not use U.S. cotton. The CBI provides quick turnarounds using U.S. fiber/fabric in the manufactured products. And, while restructuring in the U.S. textile and apparel industry will likely continue this year, cotton fiber prices at their lowest in 15 years could sustain cotton mill demand as cottons share on the cotton spinning system was at 80 percent in August, the highest in nearly 3 years. Based on the October production forecast and beginning stocks estimated at 6 million bales, total U.S. cotton supplies for 2001/02 are projected to rise nearly 5 million bales (23 percent) to 26.1 million. As a result of these U.S. cotton supply and demand projections, ending stocks for 2001/02 are projected to rise from the beginning level to 8.8 million bales. Ending stocks would be the highest since 1985/86s 9.3 million bales. Revised 2000/01 Estimates Based on reports from the Census Bureau, U.S. cotton mill use, exports, and ending stocks for 2000/01 were adjusted slightly this month. The revised consumption report indicated that U.S. mills used 8.882 million bales of cotton last season, 13 percent below the previous year. Likewise, exports were revised up to 6.763 million bales for 2000/01, slightly above the 1999/2000 USDA estimate. In addition, the Census Bureau revised U.S. ending stocks. Based on necessary adjustments to the data, 2000/01 ending stocks were estimated at 6.002 million bales, more than 50 percent higher than the previous year and the largest since 1988/89. Record Textile Imports During July July textile imports of all fibers rose 106 million pounds to a record 1.293 billion pounds. Imports increased for the third consecutive month and were 9 percent above June and 3 percent higher than July 2000. Larger shipments of all major fibers except linen and all end-use categories except yarn, thread and fabric occurred in July compared with a month earlier. Cotton textile imports, at 707 million pounds, were 30 million above June and 1 percent above July 2000 shipments. Cotton imports from Asia totaled 349 million pounds and accounted for 49 percent of total shipments. Larger imports from major suppliers such as China, India, Indonesia, and Pakistan were responsible for most of the increase. Textile exports, at 367 million pounds, declined 13 percent from June, and were 15 percent below a year earlier. Exports of all major fibers and all end-use categories were lower than June shipments. Cotton textile exports, at 156 million pounds, were 15 percent below a month earlier. Lower U.S. exports to North American countries accounted for nearly all of the monthly decline. During the first 7 months of 2001, the textile trade deficit is on track to establish another record in 2001. The overall deficit rose to 4.9 billion pounds by the end of July, compared with 4.7 billion in 2000 and 4.0 billion in 1999. Historically, cotton textiles accounted for the largest share of the trade deficit. Through July cotton textile imports exceeded exports by 3.1 billion pounds, representing 65 percent of the total deficit. With larger imports of cotton and other major fibers, the textile trade deficit will likely continue to widen this year. World Consumption Weakens World cotton production in 2001/02 is forecast 145,000 bales lower than during September, at 96.1 million bales. World cotton consumption in 2001/02 is forecast 475,000 bales lower than during September, at 92.1 million bales. Imports and exports are forecast 100,000 bales higher (28.4 million and 28 million, respectively), and ending stocks are forecast 530,000 bales higher (43.3 million). World cotton consumption prospects weakened in the last month as most forecasters reduced their estimates of world gross domestic product in 2002. Compared with last month, cotton mill use in 2001/02 is forecast lower in Indonesia, India, and Pakistan, in part due to reduced prospects for textile exports by these countries. Indias 200,000-bale reduction also reflects a 100,000-bale reduction in estimated consumption in 2000/01, suggesting the current marketing year started from a lower base than previously believed. Argentinas 2001/02 consumption is reduced 50,000 bales, reflecting its own economic problems as well as the global environment. Slight adjustments were also made to reduce consumption in Iran, South Africa, and Chile. Malaysias 2001/02 consumption is higher this month by 25,000 bales as higher imports in 2000/01 suggest a better performance by the textile industry there than previously expected. World Production Little Changed Compared with last month, USDAs forecast for world cotton production in 2001/02 is only 145,000 bales lower. However, production in South America is forecast 650,000 bales lower than it was in September, while Central Asia and Africa are each forecast about 300,000 bales higher this month. Australia and Iran are each forecast 100,000 bales lower. The largest production change from September is a 450,000-bale reduction in Brazils 2001/02 crop, to 3.3 million bales. Brazils cotton output rose steadily during 1996-2000 as area was converted to cropland in Mato Grosso and increasingly efficient use of technology drove yields in Mato Grosso and every other Brazilian state higher. Area planted to cotton in Mato Grosso rose 590 percent during 1996-2000, and yields there rose 103 percent. Modern, mechanized cotton farming also spread to Bahia where yields rose 550 percent, and most other major producing areas reported gains of at least 34 percent during this time. In 2000/01 Mato Grosso came to account for more than half of Brazils total cotton output, and while Mato Grosso is expected to continue to increase its area under crops in 2001/02, all of the increase is expected to go into soybeans. Furthermore, with the recent cotton/soybean price ratio at one of its lowest levels in the last 30 years, some area planted to cotton in 2000/01 will probably switch to soybeans in 2001/02. Yields may fall for the first time since 1995, and the combination of reduced area in Brazils highest yielding state and slipping yields in several states is expected to reduce cotton output by 800,000 bales from 2000/01s near-record of 4.1 million. Similarly, shifting prices are expected to result in lower area in Argentina compared with the year before in 2001/02, rather than steady area as previously expected. Compared with September, USDAs forecast for Argentinas 2001/02 cotton area is 105,000 hectares lower this month, at 275,000. Lower area is expected to mean slightly higher yields as the least productive land moves out of cotton first, and production is forecast down 200,000 bales compared with last months forecast. Production in Central Asia in 2001/02 is estimated higher than during September as seed cotton arrivals allay earlier fears that a third year of drought in the region might seriously damage yields. The rapid pace of arrivals through early October in each country suggests that output is closer to planned levels than previously anticipated, and estimated production is raised 200,000 bales in Uzbekistan, and 50,000 bales each in Tajikistan and Kazakhstan. Similarly, reports of higher planted area and favorable weather continue to arrive from West Africa, and Malis and Burkina Fasos expected 2001/02 crops are each 100,000 bales higher this month. Higher reported output for 2000/01 in Zimbabwe also suggests higher potential output in 2001/02, and while USDA is forecasting no year-to-year change in Zimbabwes output in 2001/02, the forecast is 75,000 bales higher than it was a month earlier. Impact of Revised Macroeconomic Outlook on World Cotton Consumption Demand for cotton fiber is derived from consumers demand for clothing, which is a function of consumers income. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the most widely forecast variable that corresponds to income, and during the last year forecasts of world GDP for the coming year have been steadily declining. In the last month, private forecast services supplying USDA with macroeconomic analysis have reduced their forecasts of world GDP growth in calendar 2002 from about a 2.5- 3.0 percent rate to about a 2.0-2.5 percent rate. This suggests that prospects for cotton consumption in 2001/02 have weakened in the last month, and this expectation has been reflected in lower prices for cotton on world markets. The past behavior of world cotton consumption suggests a 300,000-bale decline in cotton consumption might be expected from a decline in the world GDP growth rate of 0.5 percentage points. This approximation is based on the assumption that growth in world cotton consumption is a function of world GDP growth and lagged real world prices, and then estimating parameters for such a function with the simplest econometric techniques. Obviously, a large number of other factors also influence cotton consumption. Some of these can be addressed when estimating the models parameters, but some factors such as changes in taste are elusive. Similarly, the collapse of the Soviet Union led within a few years to an 80-percent decline in Russian cotton use for textile production, and Chinas cotton consumption surged in 1999/2000 after years of stagnation. Again, such events cloud the relationship between world cotton use and GDP. Generally speaking, the estimated parameter that translates changes in GDP growth to changes in cotton consumption growth is close to 1.0. Estimating this parameter across a variety of models that use different adjustments to account for structural and policy shifts that have occurred during 1973-2001 sometimes gives a value a little above 1.0, and sometimes a little below. Also, a recent ERS report, Changing Structure of Global Food Consumption and Trade, includes estimates of income elasticities for clothing and footwear of 0.86-0.9. A 1-to-1 relationship between shifts in GDP growth and cotton use growth would mean that USDAs September forecast of 0.8 percent growth in world cotton consumption in 2001/02 should instead be 0.3 percent, due to a weaker outlook for 2002 world GDP growth in October. In bales, this would be a 300,000-bale increase from the year before instead of the 700,000-bale increase forecast in September, or a 400,000-bale decline in forecasted 2001/02 world consumption from October to September. However, prices have absorbed some of the impact of reduced expectations for the coming years economic activity. If we assume that price changes can affect mill use as soon as 6 months later, it seems reasonable to expect lower prices to partly offset the negative impact of lower GDP expectations. Thus, the net impact of a weaker macroeconomic outlook might be a 300,000-bale reduction in world cotton consumption in 2001/02 rather than the 400,000-bale reduction that might be expected if prices had been unaffected by the change in expectations. Ultimately, forecast adjustments also have to account for any other new information, which could include policy changes in various countries that offset or exacerbate the impact of revised GDP expectation. Thus, this months adjustments reflect other factors in addition to GDP, and the 2001/02 world consumption is down 475,000 bales from Septembers estimate. Information Contacts:Leslie Meyer (U.S. Cotton and Textiles)(202) 694-5307 Stephen MacDonald(Foreign Cotton)(202) 694-5305 Robert Skinner(Textiles and Wool)(202) 694-5313 New Electronic Outlook Report from the Economic Research Service For several months, a wide range of ideas have emerged in the farm bill debate on how best to address the needs of farmers and other constituencies. A recently released ERS report, Cotton: Background and Issues for Farm Legislation, provides information on topics important to the debate, including market conditions, policy proposals, WTO considerations, and the interactions between policy and markets. This online-only report is the first of occasional Outlook supplements on cotton that will provide timely analysis on specific topics. Readers will no longer have to wait for the Cotton and Wool Situation and Outlook Yearbook for all of the in-depth special reports on the cotton sector. U.S. COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 2001/02 ------------------------------- Item 2000/01 Aug Sep Oct ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Million acres Upland: Planted 15.347 15.959 15.959 15.959 Harvested 12.884 14.104 13.899 13.899 Pounds Yield/harvested acre 626 661 669 672 Million 480-lb bales Beginning stocks 3.672 5.449 5.915 5.881 Production 16.799 19.410 19.377 19.457 Total supply 1/ 20.474 24.859 25.292 25.338 Mill use 8.760 8.385 8.190 8.190 Exports 6.326 8.540 8.540 8.540 Total use 15.086 16.925 16.730 16.730 Ending stocks 2/ 5.881 7.961 8.517 8.614 Percent Stocks-to-use ratio 39.0 47.0 50.9 51.5 Extra-long staple: 1,000 acres Planted 170 235 240 240 Harvested 169 234 239 239 Pounds Yield/harvested acre 1,105 1,216 1,235 1,235 1,000 480-lb bales Beginning stocks 250 101 118 121 Production 389 593 615 615 Total supply 1/ 651 704 743 746 Mill use 122 115 110 110 Exports 437 460 460 460 Total use 559 575 570 570 Ending stocks 2/ 121 139 183 186 Percent Stocks-to-use ratio 21.6 24.2 32.1 32.6 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA estimates. 1/ Includes imports. 2/ Includes unaccounted. WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 2001/02 ----------------------------- Item 2000/01 Aug Sep Oct ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Supply: Million 480-lb bales Beginning stocks World 41.53 37.83 38.87 39.01 Foreign 37.61 32.23 32.84 33.01 Production World 88.34 94.63 96.22 96.07 Foreign 71.16 75.43 76.23 76.00 Imports World 8.839 28.83 28.29 28.40 Foreign 26.81 28.82 28.28 28.39 Use: Mill use World 91.71 92.60 92.55 92.08 Foreign 82.83 84.10 84.25 83.78 Exports World 26.41 28.24 27.96 28.06 Foreign 19.64 19.24 18.96 19.06 Ending stocks World 39.01 41.53 42.73 43.26 Foreign 33.01 33.43 34.03 34.46 Stocks-to-use ratio Percent World 42.5 44.8 46.2 47.0 Foreign 39.9 39.8 40.4 41.1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on USDA estimates. FIBER SUPPLY ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 2001 2000 ---------------------------- Item Jun Jul Aug Aug ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb bales Ginnings 0 0 609 842 Imports since August 1 15 15 NA 1 Stocks, beginning 8,162 6,762 6,002 3,922 At mills 464 434 415 526 Public storage 7,204 6,657 5,587 3,529 CCC stocks 2,366 2,081 1,577 240 Manmade: Million pounds Production 691.4 668.9 689.0 902.9 Noncellulosic 678.5 654.0 678.7 874.1 Cellulosic 12.9 14.9 10.3 28.8 Total since January 1 4,576.6 5,245.9 5,934.9 6,964.9 2001 2000 ------------------------------ May Jun Jul Jul ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Million pounds Raw fiber imports 134.7 115.8 129.5 132.0 Noncellulosic 131.0 112.8 125.8 126.0 Cellulosic 3.7 3.0 3.7 5.0 Total since January 1 617.2 733.0 862.5 982.0 Wool and Mohair: 1,000 pounds Raw wool imports, clean 2,855.0 2,797.0 4,017.0 3,151.0 48's-and-finer 1,394.0 870.0 1,835.0 1,725.0 Not-finer-than-46's 1,199.0 759.0 1,611.0 1,426.0 Total since January 1 17,631.0 20,428.0 24,445.0 27,947.0 Wool top imports 243.0 476.0 317.0 432.0 Total since January 1 2,023.0 2,499.0 3,116.0 3,574.0 Mohair imports, clean 0 6.0 0 0 Total since January 1 0 6.0 6.0 4.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- NA = Not available. COTTON SYSTEM FIBER CONSUMPTION --------------------------------------------------------------------- 2001 2000 -------------------------- Item Jun Jul Aug Aug --------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb bales All consumed by mills 1/ 624 581 744 920 Total since August 1 1/ 8,300 8,882 744 920 SA annual rate 2/ 7,761 7,848 7,894 10,004 SA daily rate 2/ 29.7 30.1 30.2 38.3 Daily rate 29.7 26.4 32.3 40.0 Upland consumed by mills 1/ 614 573 732 907 Total since August 1 1/ 8,186 8,759 732 907 SA daily rate 2/ 29.3 29.7 29.8 37.8 Daily rate 29.2 26.0 31.8 39.5 Spindles in place 3,834 3,720 3,727 4,592 Active spindles 3,565 3,388 3,391 4,396 100 percent cotton 2,004 1,940 1,946 2,409 100 percent manmade 582 521 520 685 Blends 978 927 925 1,302 Percent Cotton's share of fibers 78.1 78.5 79.8 78.5 Manmade: 1,000 pounds Total consumed by mills 1/ 83,957 76,634 90,348 120,976 Total since August 1 1/ 1,083,418 1,160,052 1,159,997 120,976 Daily rate 3,998 3,483 3,481 5,260 Noncellulosic staple 3,792 3,334 3,748 4,951 Cellulosic staple 206 149 180 309 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Adjusted to calendar month. 2/ SA = seasonally adjusted. FIBER EXPORTS -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2001 2000 ------------------------- Item May Jun Jul Jul --------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: 1,000 480-lb bales Upland exports 661 755 685 448 Total since August 1 4,886 5,641 6,326 6,303 Sales for next season 456 482 814 509 Total since August 1 1,904 2,387 3,200 1,913 ELS exports 31.8 26.0 15.4 48.4 Total since August 1 395.9 421.9 437.3 446.8 Sales for next season 26.9 6.6 14.2 36.8 Total since August 1 142.9 149.5 163.7 191.7 Manmade: Million pounds Raw fiber exports 77.8 69.2 65.0 87.1 Noncellulosic 75.0 66.8 62.9 79.0 Cellulosic 2.8 2.4 2.1 8.1 Total since January 1 413.4 482.6 545.5 663.1 Wool and Mohair: 1,000 pounds Raw wool exports, clean 634 646 954 607 Total since January 1 2,242 2,288 3,842 3,794 Wool top exports 623 960 590 891 Total since January 1 2,845 3,805 4,395 3,497 Mohair exports, clean 352 132 98 461 Total since January 1 693 825 923 1,635 --------------------------------------------------------------------- FIBER PRICES -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2001 2000 -------------------------- Item Jul Aug Sep Sep -------------------------------------------------------------------- Cents per pound Domestic cotton prices: Adjusted World Price 31.55 29.50 27.32 47.86 Upland spot 41-34 37.48 36.05 33.22 60.62 Pima spot 03-46 93.40 87.50 87.50 92.30 Avg. price received by: Upland producers 40.00 36.00 34.30 50.60 Mill delivered: Cotton Actual 44.83 43.83 40.43 66.80 Raw fiber equivalent 49.81 48.70 44.92 74.22 Rayon staple Actual 99.00 99.00 99.00 98.00 Raw fiber equivalent 103.13 103.13 102.08 102.08 Polyester staple Actual 62.00 62.00 60.00 58.00 Raw fiber equivalent 64.58 64.58 62.50 60.42 Price ratios Percent Cotton/rayon 48.3 47.2 44.0 72.7 Cotton/polyester 77.1 75.4 71.9 122.9 Northern Europe cotton quotes: Cents per pound A Index 45.55 43.31 41.13 61.55 Memphis Territory 50.56 51.25 46.06 67.38 California/Arizona 49.94 52.00 47.19 69.56 B Index 44.20 42.10 39.13 56.78 Orleans/Texas 42.50 42.65 38.50 61.56 Wool prices (clean): Dollars per pound U.S. 56's 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.52 Australian 56's 1/ 1.42 1.60 1.61 1.28 U.S. 60's 0.92 0.96 1.00 0.77 Australian 60's 1/ 1.63 1.70 1.69 1.37 U.S. 64's 1.27 1.22 1.26 1.07 Australian 64's 1/ 1.67 1.72 1.69 1.49 --------------------------------------------------------------------- NQ = No quotes. NA = Not available. 1/ In bond, Charleston, SC. TEXTILE IMPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 2001 2000 ---------------------------- Item May Jun Jul Jul ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 pounds 1/ Yarn, thread, and fabric 257,994 245,445 234,659 246,708 Cotton 118,631 107,320 99,065 110,585 Linen 15,944 22,126 15,393 11,285 Wool 2,975 2,611 2,636 4,072 Silk 791 699 842 1,017 Manmade 119,653 112,689 116,723 119,749 Apparel 724,085 817,426 624,206 884,958 Cotton 460,526 504,040 538,355 520,798 Linen 16,878 20,653 24,864 22,054 Wool 13,911 21,275 33,047 33,763 Silk 11,264 11,075 13,011 13,951 Manmade 221,506 260,383 314,929 294,392 House furnishings 68,954 75,328 82,299 78,843 Cotton 51,740 56,585 60,480 56,441 Linen 1,441 1,591 1,607 1,250 Wool 361 375 346 309 Silk 150 186 243 131 Manmade 15,262 16,591 19,623 20,751 Floor coverings 42,261 39,900 42,144 374741 Cotton 5,494 4,656 5,212 5,164 Linen 6,511 6,540 7,382 6,511 Wool 11,813 11,208 11,968 10,853 Silk 953 1,009 981 579 Manmade 17,490 16,492 16,601 14,634 Total imports 2/ 1,102,783 1,187,207 1,293,373 1,258,752 Cotton 641,391 677,230 707,490 697,250 Linen 40,839 50,957 49,306 41,179 Wool 29,737 35,729 48,488 50,009 Silk 13,158 12,971 15,077 15,681 Manmade 377,658 410,319 473,011 454,632 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- TEXTILE EXPORTS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 2001 2000 ---------------------------- Item May Jun JuL Jul ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 pounds 1/ Yarn, thread, and fabric 248,452 240,986 204,664 219,835 Cotton 93,792 93,187 77,335 89,550 Linen 5,479 5,090 4,732 5,809 Wool 4,046 4,394 4,648 4,542 Silk 3,420 5,315 4,869 3,242 Manmade 133,919 133,000 113,080 116,692 Apparel 154,756 144,465 126,899 174,482 Cotton 87,447 83,170 72,207 103,138 Linen 1,940 2,145 1,768 2,649 Wool 10,664 8,631 8,026 8,510 Silk 5,734 3,805 3,228 3,873 Manmade 48,971 46,714 41,670 56,312 House furnishings 6,529 6,473 5,857 6,041 Cotton 4,161 4,285 3,625 3,603 Linen 174 181 135 133 Wool 55 58 41 43 Silk 117 94 59 55 Manmade 2,022 2,018 1,997 2,207 Floor coverings 34,308 30,857 29,271 32,328 Cotton 2,755 2,527 2,351 2,819 Linen 1,459 1,517 1,295 1,833 Wool 3,427 2,775 2,180 2,724 Silk 50 65 68 84 Manmade 26,617 23,973 23,377 24,868 Total exports 2/ 444,299 423,207 366,925 433,011 Cotton 191,028 183,244 155,582 199,170 Linen 9,059 8,939 7,937 10,429 Wool 18,214 15,881 14,913 15,836 Silk 9,320 9,280 8,223 7,254 Manmade 216,678 205,864 180,270 200,322 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Note: Data for 2001 are preliminary and subject to revision. U.S. COTTON TEXTILE IMPORTS -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2001 2000 ---------------------------- Item May Jun Jul Jul -------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 pounds 1/ North America 278,324 267,317 258,851 277,453 Canada 24,021 20,286 16,701 19,910 Costa Rica 9,557 11,338 10,159 10,133 Dominican Republic 21,934 19,422 19,247 24,260 El Salvador 24,237 24,155 23,426 24,004 Guatemala 15,411 17,184 15,848 14,586 Haiti 3,564 3,527 3,383 4,111 Honduras 41,827 36,214 40,699 40,657 Jamaica 2,180 2,389 2,364 2,668 Mexico 129,572 127,043 120,340 130,730 Nicaragua 5,793 5,482 6,445 6,104 South America 13,080 12,536 12,352 14,097 Brazil 5,088 4,258 4,422 5,789 Colombia 3,853 3,715 3,379 3,638 Peru 3,563 3,778 3,874 4,046 Europe 44,702 51,969 56,147 49,032 Italy 3,554 3,506 4,446 5,245 Portugal 3,903 7,776 8,284 7,337 Russia 4,122 4,765 5,233 3,467 Turkey 21,737 23,261 22,676 20,849 Asia 279,821 318,005 349,167 334,564 Bahrain 3,381 4,603 4,371 3,954 Bangladesh 21,107 24,907 26,331 24,358 Burma 3,996 4,946 6,195 5,337 Cambodia 7,921 12,179 11,761 11,471 China 32,933 36,449 42,894 42,530 Hong Kong 28,945 32,786 34,031 33,990 India 28,939 26,811 34,419 37,752 Indonesia 14,392 17,545 19,590 17,010 Israel 4,069 4,133 4,288 4,250 Macao 5,553 7,822 7,453 7,527 Malaysia 6,205 6,798 7,470 7,439 Pakistan 49,357 54,095 56,053 51,470 Philippines 9,547 12,096 13,310 11,723 Singapore 1,721 2,833 2,419 2,564 South Korea 11,331 11,553 12,606 11,109 Sri Lanka 7,206 9,605 11,366 9,969 Taiwan 12,701 13,389 13,891 15,727 Thailand 11,752 14,691 16,001 16,557 U Arab Em 3,742 3,575 3,533 3,319 Oceania 3,200 3,113 4,929 3,092 Australia 1,881 2,206 3,088 1,477 Africa 22,265 24,290 26,044 19,013 Egypt 8,956 9,972 7,616 7,643 Lesotho 3,389 3,193 5,701 2,996 South Africa 3,192 2,698 3,364 2,175 World 2/ 641,391 677,230 707,490 697,250 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Note: Data for 2001 are preliminary and subject to revision. U.S. COTTON TEXTILE EXPORTS ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2001 2000 --------------------------- Country May Jun Jul Jul ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,000 pounds 1/ North America 173,031 167,698 140,868 178,825 Bahamas 87 75 78 57 Canada 28,005 25,003 18,127 21,034 Costa Rica 7,287 6,154 6,938 7,880 Dominican Republic 15,697 16,707 14,876 17,143 El Salvador 12,864 11,240 10,038 11,867 Guatemala 4,865 4,025 4,402 3,733 Haiti 3,754 3,460 2,479 2,671 Honduras 24,940 25,965 21,731 25,786 Jamaica 2,233 2,388 2,110 2,254 Mexico 72,651 68,245 58,823 85,025 Nicaragua 365 775 739 792 Panama 159 276 226 234 South America 3,951 3,276 3,371 5,656 Argentina 145 79 126 141 Brazil 546 524 293 375 Chile 369 337 592 1,283 Colombia 1,234 1,057 809 2,325 Ecuador 222 247 97 338 Peru 102 56 114 51 Venezuela 1,149 869 1,146 982 Europe 6,452 5,174 5,135 6,436 Belgium 2,653 1,666 1,602 1,754 France 351 322 173 335 Germany 454 489 481 982 Italy 524 209 288 193 Netherlands 385 351 513 785 Turkey 38 178 69 36 United Kingdom 1,132 1,165 1,070 1,550 Asia 6,414 5,933 4,922 7,073 China 349 402 208 228 Hong Kong 687 731 693 784 Israel 397 551 248 379 Japan 2,238 1,960 1,541 3,045 Malaysia 45 80 26 39 Philippines 441 217 224 259 Saudi Arabia 439 352 237 277 Singapore 242 294 288 370 South Korea 220 297 232 449 Sri Lanka 90 123 123 209 Taiwan 198 145 277 185 U Arab Em 135 147 108 170 Oceania 587 496 600 642 Australia 476 413 458 522 Africa 593 668 686 538 Morocco 94 103 193 49 World 2/ 191,028 183,244 155,582 199,170 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Note: Data for 2001 are preliminary and subject to revision. ACREAGE, YIELD, AND PRODUCTION ESTIMATES FOR 2001 ------------------------------------------------------------------- State/ Region Harvested Yield Production ------------------------------------------------------------------- Lbs./ 1,000 acres harvested acre 1,000 bales Upland: Alabama 605 742 935 Georgia 1,490 680 2,110 N. Carolina 975 729 1,480 S. Carolina 296 649 400 Virginia 104 743 161 Southeast 3,470 704 5,086 Arkansas 1,080 778 1,750 Louisiana 855 595 1,060 Mississippi 1,630 751 2,550 Missouri 395 753 620 Tennessee 605 666 840 Delta 4,565 717 6,820 Oklahoma 200 504 210 Texas 4,500 469 4,400 Southwest 4,700 471 4,610 Arizona 278 1,260 730 California 655 1,392 1,900 New Mexico 70 789 115 West 1,003 1,314 2,745 Other 1/ 161 584 196 Total Upland 13,899 672 19,457 Pima: Arizona 6 960 12 California 209 1,286 560 New Mexico 7 686 10 Texas 17 932 33 Total Pima 239 1,235 615 Total All 14,138 681 20,072 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Based on USDA's September Crop Production report. 1/ Includes Florida and Kansas. END_OF_FILE