HDR1011800201000822951500 U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE UPDATE August 22, 1995 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE UPDATE is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. FAU-0822. Subcriptions to the printed version of this update are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock #FAU, $20/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Agricultural Trade Balance - The fiscal 1995 (October 1994-June 1995) agricultural trade surplus of $18.7 billion was $5.3 billion ahead of the same period last year as robust exports continue to break previous records (table 3). Ongoing Record Exports - October 1994-June 1995 exports exceeded the same period last year by 23 percent, reaching $41.1 billion. Most commodities gained in value. Cotton, grains and feeds, soybeans, poultry meat, vegetable oils, fruits, and fruit juices were especially strong in the first 3 quarters of fiscal 1995. Compared with June 1994, cattle, tobacco, and cotton were the only major commodities which declined in value in June 1995. June exports fell 6 percent from May as seasonal declines in corn, soybeans, and cotton, and lower poultry meat value pulled total exports down to $4 billion. June wheat exports totaled 2.1 million tons, 7 percent higher than June 1994. Year-to-date cumulative shipments were 2 percent below fiscal 1994 at 22.9 million tons. China, the largest buyer since February, took 1.1 million tons in June. Japan bought 257,000 tons and the Philippines nearly 200,000 tons. Corn exports decreased 1 million tons to 4.3 million tons in June, but were nearly double June last year. Japan imported 1.5 million tons, and Korea and Taiwan took nearly 600,000 tons each, the same as in May. Corn shipments were 69 percent ahead of this time last year at 42.1 million tons. June soybean volume of 967,000 tons was down 21 percent from May but 33 percent ahead of June 1994. Fiscal 1995 year-to-date shipments reached 19.3 million tons, 5.6 million tons greater than a year earlier. Monthly shipments declined as importers looked to newly-available South American supplies. Taiwan imported 312,000 tons, up from May, and Japan took 200,000 tons. Mexico bought 177,000 tons. Imports - June imports of $2.5 billion dropped 5 percent from May but continued to outpace last year, exceeding June 1994 by $300 million. Year-to-date imports were $22.4 billion, $2.6 billion higher than this time in fiscal 1994. Noncompetitive import value was driven by high world prices for coffee and rubber. Competitive imports were slightly higher than October-June last year. Meats, fruit juices, and tobacco were among the few imports that declined in value. Strong domestic beef and pork supplies set the stage for reduced meat imports. Cumulative year-to-date beef volume was 7 percent lower than October-June last year and pork fell 19 percent during the same period. Fruit juice import volume declined 20 percent due to a larger Florida crop. Orange juice made up about a third of the total juice volume thus far this year. Leaf tobacco import volume fell by half as demand for foreign leaf was stifled by U.S. regulations limiting the foreign tobacco content of U.S.-manufactured cigarettes. Brazil and Turkey were the largest suppliers so far this year. (Tom Capehart, 202-219-1262) Exports to Pacific Rim Surge - Large increases to East Asian countries have characterized exports in fiscal 1995. U.S. agricultural exports to China surged by $1.4 billion, reaching $1.9 billion for the October-June period and are expected to reach at least $2.3 billion for fiscal 1995. China bought $725 million of U.S. cotton through June, $400 million greater than October-June 1994. China continued to buy wheat and also began importing corn. Soybean oil shipments went from nothing to $350 million. Increased domestic consumption due to rising incomes and population helped boost shipments of vegetable oil and feed grains. Poultry meat and cotton shipments caused a sharp jump in the value of exports to Hong Kong. Total year-to-date value was up by more than $300 million and is forecast to reach $1.5 billion. Korea bought an additional $1.1 billion so far this year compared with October-June fiscal 1994 as the United States replaced China as a feed grain source. U.S. cotton, hide, beef, and soybean shipments to Korea also rose. Japan continued to be the largest importer of U.S. agricultural products; October-June imports were up nearly $700 million to $7.8 billion due to greater beef and cotton imports. Taiwan is also a major importer, year-to-date shipments were up $300 million to $1.9 billion. End-end-end