U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE UPDATE September 22, 1995 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE UPDATE is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. FAU-0995. Subcriptions to the printed version of this update are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock #FAU, $20/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- EXPORTS - October 1994-July 1995 exports totaled $45 billion compared with $36.4 billion this time last year. At the onset of the fourth quarter of fiscal 1995, most agricultural commodities exceeded last year's values and records continued to be broken. July's export value was $4 billion, unchanged from June and $800 million higher than July 1994. The agricultural trade surplus for July was $1.6 billion, and the year-to-date surplus $20.3 billion. Oilseed and products were one of the fastest growing export commodity categories, gaining $1.8 billion in year-to-date value to $7.7 billion. Soybean shipments of $4.5 billion were $900 million higher than this time last year on volume of 20.4 million tons. Vegetable oils exports gained $750 million, reaching $1.7 billion. Volume was 2.4 million tons. Both soybeans and vegetable oils advanced on high global demand and large U.S. supplies in 1995. The European Union (EU), Japan, Taiwan, and Korea were major markets. Soybean shipments to the EU alone jumped 3 million tons and vegetable oil shipments to China went from nil to nearly 600,000 tons. Strong year-to-date corn shipments made grains and feeds the second fastest growing export segment. Total grain and feed volume was 31 percent ahead of last year at nearly 100 million tons valued at $13.7 billion. Prospects for higher corn prices and limited competitor supplies pushed corn shipments up 72 percent to almost 50 million tons. Year-to-date wheat volume was steady with higher export prices pushing value up 15 percent to $3.8 billion. Lower world production and stocks boosted export unit value. Seasonal declines and high cotton export prices lowered July cotton shipments 24,000 tons to 65,000 tons and pushed July cotton value below July 1994 on half the volume. However, year-to-date cotton shipments were 35 percent ahead of last year at 1.9 million tons, and value gained 63 percent, reaching $3.2 billion. China, Japan, and Indonesia were primary destinations. October-July meat exports gained 25 percent to $3.5 billion. Beef accounted for $2.1 billion, and poultry meat $1.2 billion. Japan and South Korea maintained strong U.S. frozen red meat imports. Russia was the largest destination for poultry meat, taking nearly 500,000 tons of frozen chicken valued at $380 million. Russia and Hong Kong accounted for 300,000 tons of the 412,000 ton year-to-date gain in frozen chicken meat exports. Hide exports reached $1.4 billion as strong Pacific Rim economies and high fed cattle slaughter made for large shipments of high-quality hides. Animal oil and grease export value surged 73 percent to $700 million due to higher prices resulting from tight supplies as slaughter of heavier, but leaner, cattle tightened supplies of tallow. IMPORTS - October-July imports totaled $24.8 billion, $3 billion higher than fiscal 1994. July imports of $2.4 billion were about $400 million higher than July 1994. July 1995 coffee import unit values were $3,400 per ton, $600 below the peak of $4,000 reached in the first quarter of fiscal 1995. But at $2.9 billion, more than double fiscal 1994 year-to-date imports, coffee has already had a significant effect on total agricultural import value. Horticultural commodity imports declined as the U.S. harvest was anticipated. (Tom Capehart, 202-219-1262) INITIAL FISCAL 1996 EXPORTS - Agricultural exports in fiscal 1996 are projected at $54.5 billion, $1.5 billion higher than fiscal 1995's forecast. Higher prices for many bulk commodities will boost value despite lower volume due to the reduced 1995 harvest. Grain and feed exports are set at $17.5 billion, up $600 million. Oilseed exports are expected to reach $8.9 billion, up $200 million. Lower volume, offset by higher prices, puts soybean value at $5.3 billion. Red meat export value will be steady but hides will increase $100 million and poultry meat will continue rising, pushing poultry product exports to around $2.4 billion. Horticultural products are projected up $900 million to $10.3 billion, with fruits and vegetables each advancing $300 million and tree nuts up $100 million. Cotton is projected $800 million lower at $2.9 billion after record shipments in fiscal 1995. The forecast value is still 26 percent higher than fiscal 1994. END-END-END .