U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE UPDATE April 2, 1996 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE UPDATE is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. FAU-0396. Subscriptions to the printed version of this update are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock #FAU, $20/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This report was scheduled for release on March 22, 1996, but was postponed until April 2, 1996, because of delays in obtaining data supplied by the U.S. Department of Commerce, which experienced furloughs in late 1995. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Exports Rise - January 1996 U.S. agricultural exports totaled a record $5.5 billion. Exports rose 3 percent compared with December 1995, and were 24 percent higher than January 1995. Imports rose 13 percent over December to $2.7 billion, but were only 7 percent higher than a year earlier. The agricultural trade surplus was $2.8 billion, second only to December 1995's record of nearly $3 billion. Accumulated exports for October 1995-January 1996 totaled $21.2 billion, 15 percent higher than the same period of fiscal 1995. In fiscal 1996, bulk exports, especially wheat, corn, soybeans, and cotton, were up 30 percent compared with 1995. But year-to-date bulk export volume was only up 3 percent at 46 million tons. Tight global grain and soybean stocks continued to push commodity prices higher, driving export value upwards. Beef, pork, poultry meat, and fruit and nut exports continued to advance, boosting high-value product (HVP) exports. However, a 22-percent decline in fresh vegetable exports offset some of the HVP gains. Wheat shipments were 2.6 million tons in January, slightly higher than a year ago; however the value of wheat exports was 39 percent higher at $542 million. The average wheat export price was $197 per ton during the first 4 months of fiscal 1996, 37 percent higher than in fiscal 1995 because of tight wheat supplies. Year-to-date wheat shipments rose 3 percent to 11.4 million tons, but value jumped 40 percent to $2.2 billion. Egypt (346,000 tons), Pakistan (302,000 tons), and Japan (229,000 tons) were the leading markets for U.S. wheat in January. January corn exports totaled 5.4 million tons, 21 percent higher than a year ago. The average export price reached $149 per ton in January and the fiscal year average rose to $140 per ton, 37 percent higher than the same period last fiscal year. Tight global corn supplies and strong demand continue to boost U.S. exports. Year-to-date exports totaled 20.5 million tons, 11 percent above 1995. U.S. exports were 1.4 million tons to Japan in January, 792,000 tons to South Korea, and 615,000 tons to Taiwan. Soybean shipments were 2.9 million tons, the highest in a single month since November 1979, but year-to-date exports were 9.8 million tons, 4 percent lower than last year. However, higher soybean prices boosted value 18 percent to $2.6 billion. The Netherlands (402,000 tons), Japan (345,000 tons), and Mexico (333,000) were the leading markets in January 1996. U.S. cotton exports remained strong with shipments of 275,000 tons in January. The year-to-date total of 801,000 tons was 13 percent higher than in fiscal 1995, but value jumped 28 percent because of higher prices. Year-to-date cotton shipments to China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Egypt, and Mexico were significantly higher than a year earlier. Compared to a year earlier, January beef exports were 38 percent higher at $214 million, poultry meat 34 percent higher at $171 million, and nuts 19 percent higher at $107 million. Imports Gain - Fiscal 1996 imports totaled $10.2 billion through January, 7 percent higher than in fiscal 1995. Much of the gain was due to increased beer and wine, vegetable oils, rubber, and cocoa imports. Coffee imports dropped 15 percent to $1 billion, but volume was 25 percent higher as lower coffee prices spurred imports. Beef imports fell 17 percent to $427 million for the period. (Joel Greene, 202-219-0816) NAFTA Trade During 1995 - Total U.S. agricultural trade with Canada and Mexico reached a record $18.6 billion in calendar 1995. However, for the first time since 1989, the United States had a trade deficit of $81 million with its NAFTA partners. In 1994, the United States exported a record $10 billion to Canada and Mexico, and imported $8.1 billion from its NAFTA partners. But with the peso devaluation beginning in December 1994 and the subsequent economic contraction in Mexico, U.S. NAFTA exports declined and imports rose to $9.3 billion in 1995. In January 1996, U.S. exports to Canada and Mexico reached $910 million on record exports of $450 million to Mexico, indicating a turnaround from last year's deficit. END-END-END