U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE UPDATE September 20, 1996 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE UPDATE is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. FAU-0996. Subscriptions to the printed version of this update are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock #FAU, $20/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. Note: Tables in this report will not appear to be properly formatted unless printed or displayed with both a fixed-pitch font, such as Courier, and an 80-character line width. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Summary--July 1996 U.S. agricultural exports increased slightly from June to nearly $4.5 billion, up 12 percent from July 1995. July's imports were $2.8 billion, up 14 percent from last year. October 1995-July 1996 agricultural exports reached $50.8 billion, 13 percent greater than last year, while imports were up 9 percent, reaching $27 billion. Exports--Grain exports were up sharply from June and were higher than a year ago. Wheat reached $620 million, up 63 percent from July 1995. Both higher prices and higher export volume contributed to the increase. The volume of wheat exports reached nearly 3 million tons, with a unit price of $210 per ton. China and Egypt were the leading U.S. wheat markets at 500,000 tons and 425,000 tons, respectively. The value of corn exports in July 1996 was up sharply from a year ago, reaching $702 million, a 20-percent increase. Stronger prices accounted for the value increase, since volume dropped to 3.7 million tons, from 4.9 million tons in July 1995. The average price for corn in July reached a monthly record of $187 per ton. Japan was the destination of 1.3 million tons. Other bulk commodities, including cotton, soybeans, and tobacco, fell from the previous month. July cotton exports decreased to $73 million. Cotton shipments fell from 65,000 tons a year ago to 40,000 tons, less than July imports of 44,000 tons, which is rare for any month. Soybean exports dropped from the previous month to $373 million. Exports of U.S. soybeans to Japan and the European Union fell, leaving Taiwan the leading market, with 333,540 tons. Although soybean exports decreased for the month, the year-to-date total was 23 percent greater than a year earlier reaching $5.5 million. Unmanufactured tobacco exports decreased to $44 million from a June level of $95 million but were 33 percent higher than a year earlier. High-value product (HVP) exports, including meat and poultry, fruits and nuts, and vegetables, dropped from June but remained higher than a year earlier. Meat and poultry fell to $529 million from $540 million in June. The year- to-date total for meat exports was $6 billion, an 18-percent increase over last year. From a year ago, July beef exports decreased 20 percent while poultry exports surpassed beef and increased 8 percent. Fruit and nut exports fell to $394 million for the month, but the year-to-date total remained 5 percent ahead of the previous year. Vegetable exports declined from June to $312 million and remained 9 percent below the previous year-to-date total. Imports--July imports rose to $2.8 billion, up from the June level of $2.6 billion. The year-to-date total was 9 percent greater than a year earlier. Beverages contributed to much of the import growth. Wine imports reached $123 million in July giving a year-to-date total of $1.1 billion, a 23-percent increase over the previous year. Like wine, imports of malt beverages continued to grow, reaching $138 million for July and pushing the year-to-date level 19 percent over the previous year. Coffee imports increased in July to $216 million but remained 16 percent below the 1995 year-to-date total. Sugar imports advanced in July, pushing the year-to-date total to $735 million, a 50-percent increase from a year ago. The value of fruit and vegetables imports fell in July but the accumulative total for the year remained 12 percent ahead of a year ago. FY 1997 Exports Expected at $58 Billion--U.S. agricultural exports are projected to fall from a forecast $60 billion in fiscal 1996 to $58 billion in 1997 (table 6). Lower expected export prices for wheat, corn, and cotton, as well as reduced shipments will decrease exports by nearly $4 billion in 1997. Soybean and product exports are expected to rise due to higher prices for soybeans and meal and increased soybean oil shipments. Tight U.S. supplies and increased exports by foreign competitors is projected to reduce export volume to 150.5 million tons. HVP exports, primarily livestock, poultry, and horticultural products are expected to rise more than $1 billion. Imports are projected to rise to a record $32 billion, slightly above the forecast $31.5 billion in fiscal 1996. The fiscal 1997 trade surplus is projected at $26 billion, which would be the third largest. (Mark Gehlhar 202-501-8525) END-OF-FILE