U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE UPDATE December 23, 1996 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE UPDATE is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. FAU-1296. Subcriptions to the printed version of this update are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock #FAU, $20/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Summary--U.S. agricultural exports were $5.2 billion, up 20 percent from September 1996 and 2 percent higher than October 1995. Accumulative exports from January to October were $49.3 billion, a 9-percent increase since a year ago. October imports were $3 billion, an increase of 14 percent from September and 18 percent higher than October 1995. The agricultural trade surplus for October 1996 was $2.2 billion, down 14 percent from October 1995. Exports--Bulk exports reached $2.3 billion in October, down 3 percent from a year ago. Corn exports for October were 3.7 million tons, 44 percent higher than September 1996, but 31 percent less than October 1995. The export unit value for corn in October remained 19 percent higher than the year before, but with lower corn shipments, the value was 17 percent lower than a year ago at $577 million. Corn shipments to Mexico nearly doubled from the previous month, reaching 484,000 tons. Wheat exports were 2.6 million tons, 18 percent lower than the previous year. The value of wheat in October was $479 million, down 21 percent from 1995. Soybean exports in October more than doubled from September, reaching 2.6 million tons and up 24 percent from October 1995. Soybeans led U.S. bulk commodity exports, reaching $734 million in October, a sharp 41- percent increase from a year ago. Tobacco exports were 23,000 tons in October, up 77 percent from a month earlier and 5 percent higher than 1995. The value of tobacco exports increased 71 percent from September, reaching $156 million, a 10-percent increase from a year ago. High-value products (HVP) were nearly $3 billion in October, up 6 percent from October 1995. U.S. beef and veal exports in October were 50,000 tons, a decline of 7-percent from a year earlier. The 1996 year-to-date total was 517,000 tons, still 6 percent ahead of 1995. The value of beef and veal exports in October fell 24 percent from a year ago to $185 million as low export prices continued to reduce value. October beef exports to Japan increased 17 percent from the previous month to 26,000 tons, the highest level since July 1996. Strong poultry meat exports continued, reaching $254 million, an 18-percent increase over a year ago, and 20 percent higher than a month earlier. The year-to-date total was $2 billion, a 25-percent increase over 1995. Continued strong demand for nuts pushed exports to $280 million in October, a 33-percent increase from a month earlier, and a 26-percent increase from a year earlier. Increased walnut shipments and strong almond prices boosted nut exports. The current year-to-date total for nut exports reached $1.3 billion, up 21 percent from a year ago. Fresh vegetable exports were $80 million in October, a 41-percent increase from a month ago and 19 percent higher than the previous year. The year-to-date total for fresh vegetables in 1996 lagged 8 percent behind the previous year at $795 million. Imports--U.S. agricultural imports were $3 billion, 18 percent higher than October 1995. Year-to-date imports reached $27.9 billion, 12 percent higher than a year ago. Beverages, except. fruit juices were $333 million, a 42-percent increase over the previous month. Wine imports accounted for much of the increase, reaching $201 million in October. Tobacco imports for October were 65,000 tons, up from 20,000 tons in 1995. The value of tobacco imports surged to $210 million, accounting for 26 percent of the year-to-date 1996 total at $815 million. (Mark Gehlhar, 202-501-8525) Fiscal 1997 Export Forecast Lowered--The fiscal 1997 U.S. agricultural export forecast was reduced $2.5 billion from the August projection to $55.5 billion. Most of the decline is due to much lower expected prices for wheat, coarse grains, and soybeans. Increased global production and higher competitor exports of wheat and coarse grains has diminished export prospects since the August forecast. The United States is expected to export more soybeans, but the large U.S. crop and improved foreign production prospects have reduced expected export prices. High-value product exports will exceed $33 billion in 1997, and account for nearly 60 percent of exports. Record livestock, poultry, and horticultural products are expected in 1997. The trade surplus is forecast at $21.5 billion. END_OF_FILE