U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE UPDATE June 24, 1997 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ========================================================================== U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE UPDATE is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. FAU-0697. Subscriptions to the printed version of this update are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock #FAU, $20/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. ========================================================================== Summary--In April 1997, U.S. agricultural exports equalled $4.7 billion, 6 percent under the $5 billion exported in March. Cumulative exports for fiscal 1997 reached $36 billion, down from $37 billion in fiscal 1996. April imports declined 2 percent from March to $3.2 billion. And at $21 billion, October 1996 to April 1997 imports remained 11 percent above the same period in fiscal 1996. The year-to-date U.S. agricultural trade surplus is $15 billion, down 18 percent from a year ago. Exports--April bulk commodity exports were $1.9 billion, 18.5 percent below April 1996. And the $15.9 billion in year-to-date exports are down 13 percent from the same period in fiscal 1996. April wheat exports rose compared with March, to 1.8 million tons, but remained well under those of a year ago. And at $2.2 billion, fiscal 1997 wheat exports were 43 percent below fiscal 1996. Increased competition from foreign wheat suppliers, as well as reduced demand and lower prices continue limiting export quantity and value. At 3.6 million tons, April U.S. corn shipments were 28 percent below those of April 1996, and at $4.2 billion the value of cumulative corn exports for this fiscal year declined 19 percent from fiscal 1996. In addition to a sharp reduction in China's corn import demand this year, China again became a corn export competitor, with exports projected at 2.5 million tons in 1996/97 compared with1995/96 exports of 227,000 tons. Argentine exports are projected up 22 percent. Soybean exports in April 1997 declined from March, but rose 10 percent compared with April 1996, and year-to-date soybean export value, at $5.5 billion, increased 25 percent. Greater competition from Brazilian soybean exports was only just getting underway in April, but in the coming months as its harvest reaches market, Brazil is projected to dampen U.S. soybean exports. In contrast, however, Argentina's additional crushing capacity this year is expected to increase its exports of soybean meal and dramatically reduce its exports of soybeans. Excluding linters, U.S. cotton exports in April slipped to 155,000 tons compared with 185,000 tons in March 1997; but remained above exports in April 1996. At $1.8 billion, year-to-year export value dropped 29 percent, even though global import demand remains relatively robust compared with 3 of the last 4 years. Large gains in exports from Australia and the French-speaking countries of western Africa are expected to raise competition for the remainder of the year. High-value product (HVP) exports in April equalled $2.8 billion, fractionally below those of April 1996 and March 1997. But thus far in fiscal 1997, HVP exports have reached $20 billion, nearly 6 percent above fiscal 1996. Meats and vegetables were the leading HVP exports in April. Oilmeals continue to lead the year-to-date gains in HVP export value, rising $514 million since October. Vegetable export growth also continues strong and in April was $237 million above the same period of fiscal 1996. Seeds and poultry also showed strong year-to-year growth. Imports--Imports continued up for the year and reached $21 billion in the first 7 months, up 11 percent over the same period last year. April imports equalled $3.2 billion, above April 1996 and just 2 percent below the March 1997 monthly record. Coffee was again a major import (see box). (Carol Whitton 202-219-0825) Coffee was the second largest U.S. import in April and its value also showed the largest import gain in the first 7 months of fiscal 1997. Tight supplies in several major coffee exporting countries, particularly Mexico and Colombia, and uncertainty about coming harvests, contributed to recent gains in coffee prices. By late April, July coffee futures had more than doubled from about $1 per pound in October 1996 and peaked at over $3 in May. The average unit value of U.S. coffee imports in April 1997 was $3,187 per ton compared with just $2,670 per ton in April 1996. But the unit value of imports from Mexico reached $3,988 per ton in April and was nearly as high from Guatemala and Colombia, reflecting low stocks. Although U.S. coffee consumption has declined in recent years, rising demand for higher priced gourmet coffee also has contributed to increased coffee import value. Next Update: July 22, 1997. END_OF_FILE