U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE UPDATE October 23, 1997 October 1997, FAU-1097 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE UPDATE is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. See supplemental data files in Lotus 123 (WK1) format. Subscriptions to the printed version of this update are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock #FAT, $41/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Summary--U.S. agricultural exports reached $4.4 billion in August 1997, 11 percent above July 1997 but 4 percent under August 1996. Cumulative exports for the first 11 months of fiscal year 1997 reached $52.9 billion, 5 percent below last year. August imports dropped 4 percent from July 1997 to $2.8 billion, but were 4 percent above August 1996. For the fiscal year to date, imports reached $32.9 billion, up 10 percent. Consequently, the export surplus of $20 billion remains 22 percent under a year earlier. Exports--The cumulative value of bulk commodity exports is $21.7 billion, 17 percent below fiscal 1996, following another monthly decline. Grains continue to show the largest year-to-year decrease, primarily reflecting lower prices after the high prices of 1996. Exports of wheat to date are $3.6 billion, 42 percent below 1996, while corn exports, at $5.7 billion, are down 28 percent. However, in August, exports of wheat and corn rose, reaching $504 million and $420 million, respectively, each well above July 1997 shipments. In contrast to grain, U.S. soybean exports have risen to $6.6 billion in the year-to-date, an 11-percent gain.August exports jumped 57 percent from July as exports from South America slowed when late summer margins began to favor crushing in Brazil, while at the same time China increased purchasing. U.S. cotton exports in August 1997 declined from July to $167 million as cotton prices slipped slightly and competition from foreign exporters continued strong. Cumulative exports are 11 percent below 1996 at $2.6 billion. At $31.2 billion, high value product (HVP) exports are up 6 percent in 1997 with August shipments exceeding July's. HVP export value now exceeds bulk export value by nearly $10 billion for the year. At $4 billion, meat exports are down 9 percent in value for 1997. However, the value of other important HVP exports increased in 1997, some rising sharply from 1996. Exports of fruits are up 4 percent to $2.5 billion, while exports of vegetables have risen 10 percent to $3.8 billion. The value of poultry exports, at $2.6 billion, is up 6 percent. Soybean meal exports have reached $1.6 billion, a 29-percent gain, and soybean oil exports have nearly doubled to $475 million. Imports--August imports declined 4 percent to $2.8 billion and year-to-date imports, at $32.9 billion, remain 10 percent above 1996. As has been true for several months, coffee remains the largest single import at $3.4 billion, 29 percent above fiscal 1996. But vegetable imports now also amount to $3.4 billion, a 5-percent gain. And at $2.4 billion, meat imports have risen 15 percent, while fruit imports have reached $1.9 billion, up 11 percent. Agricultural Imports from Asia Expand, While Exports to Asia Contract--In 1997, Asia is the third largest source of U.S. imports, after Latin America and Western Europe. Imports from Asia have risen to $5.9 billion, 10 percent over 1996. U.S. exports to Asia, by far the United States' largest export market, have contracted 8 percent to $24.5 billion dollars. Nevertheless, agricultural trade with Asia is nearly a $19-billion surplus. Among the Asian countries, Indonesia is the main source of agricultural imports, providing $1.4 billion in the first 11 months of 1997. And at $1.2 billion, rubber is the main import from Asia. Sixty-two percent of 1997 U.S. imports of Asian rubber came from Indonesia. Japan is the primary destination of U.S. exports to Asia, having taken $9.9 billion so far in 1997. At $4.2 billion, feed grains--$3.8 billion in corn-- are the largest U.S. export to Asia, followed closely by soybeans at $3.2 billion. This year, Japan took $2.1 billion of U.S. feed grains ($1.9 billion of corn) and $1 billion of soybeans. South Korea and Taiwan each accounted for another $700 million of U.S. feed grain exports to Asia, while South Korea, Taiwan, and China have taken $400-550 million each in soybean exports from the United States. END_OF_FILE