U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE UPDATE February 27, 1998 February 1998, FAU-14 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE UPDATE is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Subscriptions to the printed version of this report are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock #ERS-FAT, $41/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Summary--Calendar 1997 U.S. agricultural exports equalled $57 billion, a 5-percent drop from the $60 billion exported in 1996. December 1997 exports were $5.2 billion, just under November 1997 and December 1996. Strong imports of $3.3 billion in December pushed calendar 1997 imports up 8 percent from 1996 to $36.2 billion. The U.S. export surplus continued to slide and equalled $21 billion for the calendar year, a 22-percent drop from 1996. Exports--Bulk exports accounted for all of the decline in 1997, falling to $22.7 billion, down 19 percent from 1996. Grains lost the most, with the value of corn exports down 39 percent, wheat down 35 percent, and rice down 9 percent year-to-year. Grain prices dropped below the unusually high prices of 1996 and both foreign and U.S. production rose. Export quantities also fell--corn off 20 percent, wheat 18 percent, and rice 12 percent from 1996. U.S. 1997 wheat exports dropped to $4.1 billion and 25.3 million tons compared with $6.3 billion and 30.9 million tons in 1996. For 1998, importers' large stocks may reduce demand. Large U.S. stocks are expected to keep U.S. prices competitive with other exporters. At 41.6 million tons valued at $5.2 billion, U.S. corn exports in 1997 declined more than any other commodity. Competition from a record Argentine corn crop, as well as from China and Eastern Europe, already is limiting prospects for U.S. exports in 1998. In contrast, 1997 U.S. soybean exports reached 26 million tons, valued at $7.4 billion, an increase over 1996, but up only about 1 percent in volume and value. Competition from big harvests in South America is expected to reduce the volume of U.S. soybean exports in 1998. But prices remain strong, reflecting reduced foreign vegetable oil supplies, and the value of U.S. fiscal 1998 exports is projected unchanged from 1997. U.S. 1997 cotton exports increased in volume, but slipped in value due to falling prices. Export volume reached 1.6 million tons, up from 1.5 million in 1996, while value dipped to $2.68 billion from $2.71 billion in 1996. But much of the large supply available for export in 1998 is in the United States and little change is forecast for fiscal 1998 U.S. exports. U.S. high value product (HVP) exports rose 7 percent to a record $34.6 billion in 1997. Vegetable oils showed the greatest gains for the calendar year, with U.S. exports of soybean oil soaring 80 percent above 1996 to $587 million. Sharply reduced supplies of Malaysian palm oil, due to drought there, led to much less competition from other vegetable oils. Exports of live animals, up 28 percent in 1997 to $566 million, and of dairy products, up 28 percent to $932 million, also showed strong year-to-year gains. Imports--The 8-percent gain in U.S. imports to $36.3 billion occurred mainly in coffee, the largest import, at $3.9 billion, up 39 percent year-to-year. The second largest import, vegetables, reached $3.7 billion, while fruits equalled $2 billion, each 5 percent above 1996. Wine imports rose 20 percent, as did beef and veal imports, to reach $1.7 billion and $1.6 billion, respectively. Imports of malt beverages increased 14 percent to $1.5 billion. Canada, the European Union (EU), and Mexico continued to be the largest sources of U.S. imports, providing $7.5 billion, $7 billion, and $4.1 billion, respectively, worth of agricultural goods in 1997. (Carol Whitton 202-694-5287) Rank of Major U.S. Export Markets Unchanged in 1997 from 1996--Export declines were spread across all the major markets. Japan, the EU, Canada, and Mexico continued to be the largest U.S. markets, taking $10.5 billion, $8.9 billion, $6.8 billion, and $5.2 billion, respectively, of U.S. exports in 1997. South Korea, Taiwan, China, and Hong Kong rounded out the top eight markets, while Russia, Egypt, the Philippines, and Indonesia constituted the four next-most-important markets. Next Update: March 23, 1998 END_OF_FILE