U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE UPDATE June 23, 1998 June 1998, FAU-18 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE UPDATE is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Subscriptions to the printed version of this report are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock # FAU, $41/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Summary--October 1997-April 1998 U.S. agricultural exports reached $34.8 billion, just 3 percent less than the first 7 months of 1997. But April exports of $4.2 billion dropped 9 percent compared with April 1997 and 10 percent compared with March 1998. In contrast, April 1998 imports equalled $3.3 billion, 4 percent above April 1997, but 4 percent below March 1998. At $22.2 billion, cumulative 1998 imports rose 6 percent from 1997. The export surplus for fiscal 1998 to date is $12.5 billion, down 17 percent from 1997. Exports--Cumulative bulk exports declined 12 percent in value to $14.1 billion and 8 percent in quantity to 64 million tons. Most of the drop is in corn exports, particularly corn exports to Asia. At $2.6 billion and 21.6 million tons through April 1998, corn shipments are below the $4.2 billion and 30.9 million tons recorded as of April 1997. Exports of wheat and rice rose in 1998, while exports of soybeans and cotton showed some increase in quantity, but fell in value. Cumulative U.S. wheat exports for 1998 are $2.3 billion and 14.7 million tons, gains of 3.5 percent and 18 percent, respectively, over 1997. April wheat exports continued relatively small as old stocks diminished and marketing of the new harvest had not yet begun; but April exports showed little change from March in either quantity or value. Soybean exports in the first 7 months of 1998 equalled $5.2 billion and 19.6 million tons. Value dropped about 5 percent from fiscal 1997, but quantity rose 2 percent. April exports fell well below March 1998 and April 1997. As marketing of the record large South American harvest began, competition rose and prices slipped. Steadily declining cotton prices are responsible for the drop in cumulative U.S. cotton export value, to $1.7 billion in 1998. This 3-percent decline in cotton export value occurred even though the quantity is up about 3 percent to 1.1 million tons. April cotton exports declined sharply from March--to 145,000 tons compared with 193,000 tons--suggesting an increase in foreign export competition, which had been expected after large harvests in Central Asia and Africa. High-value product (HVP) exports continue rising. October-April HVP exports equalled $20.7 billion, up 3 percent over 1997. Vegetable oil exports, up 41 percent to $1.4 billion in the year-to-date, led the growth in HVP trade. But at $2.7 billion, up 9 percent, meats (excluding poultry meat) also show strength. And unusually large gains in export of non-fat dry milk pulled up gains in dairy product exports. Imports--Cocoa, coffee, wine, malt beverages, and vegetables are all responsible for continued strong growth in import value in 1998. However, last year's leading growth market--coffee--is slowing this year. Although through April coffee import value rose 21 percent to $2.3 billion, pulled up by high prices, the volume of coffee imports dropped to 699,000 tons, compared with last year's 735,000 tons. Vegetables continue to be the largest import at $2.7 billion, up 17 percent. Wine rose to $1.1 billion, up 20 percent. And with 29 percent growth to date, cocoa imports also reached $1.1 billion through April. Malt beverages are $842,000, up 15 percent. (Carol Whitton 202-694-5287) Growth of U.S. agricultural imports from Asia significant for only a few traditional products--With the devaluation of many Asian currencies, 1998 Asian exports to the United States became less expensive. This would normally lead to increases in U.S. imports from Asia, but, so far, few U.S. agricultural imports have gained. The strongest gains in the U.S. import market so far in 1998 include commodities for which Asia traditionally is the dominant supplier--coconut oil, palm kernal oil, other vegetable oils, and rubber. Generally, these imports show year-to-year growth in the range of 15-30 percent. U. S. imports from Asia of a few non-agricultural but related products, such as farm machinery and fertilizers, also have strong growth in 1998. However, these products account for only tiny shares of the total U.S. imports. Next Update: July 23, 1998 END_OF_FILE