U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE UPDATE August 20, 1998 August 1998, FAU-20 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE UPDATE is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Subscriptions to the printed version of this report are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock # FAU, $41/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Summary--October 1997-June 1998 U.S. agricultural exports of $42.7 billion remain 4 percent below exports in the first 9 months of fiscal 1997, despite a tiny increase in June 1998 exports over May 1998. June exports, however, are below those of June 1997. The cumulative 1998 agricultural imports of $28.3 billion remain 5 percent above fiscal 1997. Imports in June rose slightly from both May 1998 and June 1997. With little change in either imports or exports in June, the export surplus of $14.4 billion is 17 percent below 1997, the same as in May. Exports--Although bulk product exports still are substantially below 1997, the decline slowed in June. Bulk product exports through June equalled $16.5 billion, 13 percent below 1997. At 1.8 million tons, U.S. wheat exports in June 1998 continued the strong levels of the previous month and exceeded June 1997 as well. Year-to-date wheat shipments exceed 1997 by 18 percent in quantity and 3 percent in value and equal $2.8 billion and 18.4 million tons. Mexico imported 5 percent more U.S. wheat this season, while Central and South America, the European Union (EU), the Middle East, North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa also are importing more. The $3.3 billion and 27.8 million tons of U.S. corn exports are off 34 percent in value and 24 percent in quantity from 1997. But the June 1998 corn export quantity rose 14 percent from June 1997 and also exceeded May 1998 shipments. October-June 1998 U.S. soybean exports continue to slow as a result of strong South American competition. June exports slipped below both May 1998 and June 1997. The 21 million tons and $5.6 billion in exports so far this year dropped 9 percent in value and 1 percent in quantity from 1997. While the 1998 cotton export value continues below 1997 by 7 percent, the export volume remains about the same as last year at 1.3 million tons. Demand is strong in Mexico and the Middle East, and the availability of GSM credits is aiding sales to South Korea. Sales of High Value Products (HVP) through June reached $26.1 billion, 2 percent above 1997. Vegetable oil continues to lead the gains as it has for most of the season. Vegetable oil exports reached $1.7 billion, up 41 percent from 1997. At $1.8 billion, up 20 percent, oil meals and cakes also are showing export strength this season. Red meats and vegetables continue to be the largest HVP exports. Red meat exports equalled $3.4 billion through June, while vegetable exports reached $3.2 billion. Exports of these HVPs are up 6 and 3 percent, respectively, so far this year. With higher prices, lettuce has shown particular strength among the vegetables, while fresh and frozen beef, veal, and pork account for much of the gains in meat exports. Imports--Imports of fruits, vegetables, and meats account for much of the import gain in 1998 to date. At $3.4 billion, vegetable imports not only are the largest import category, but also have risen 17 percent in 1998. Fruit imports are up 6 percent to $1.8 billion, and meats have risen 5 percent to $2 billion for 1998. Coffee continues to show growth in value as the average price for the fiscal year-to-date remains high; but the quantity of coffee imported so far this season remains 6 percent below 1997 at 887,000 tons. Imports of other beverages, including cocoa, wine, and malt beverages, also increased in value through June. These beverages each equalled $1.2-$1.4 billion, 17-20 percent over 1997. (Carol Whitton 202-694-5287) State export shares in 1997 changed little from 1996--California continues to be the largest exporting State and leads in exports of four commodity groups. The other top 10 exporting States generally remain the same as in 1996, although their order varies slightly, Arkansas has moved up and North Dakota dropped. With the exception of wheat and hides, States leading exports of particular commodity groups remain unchanged. See special article herein. Next Update: September 22, 1998 California Continues as Lead Exporting State in Fiscal 1997 U.S. agricultural exports in fiscal year 1997 equalled $57.4 billion, down 4.2 percent from the fiscal 1996 record $59.9 billion. Most of the drop resulted from lower prices of bulk commodities, particularly grains, as the tight market situation of the previous year eased. The export value of wheat, rice, and feed grains fell sharply from the high levels of 1996. At $9.3 billion, a 17-percent gain, exports of soybeans and products surpassed feed grains and products during 1997 to become the leading export item. Big gains also occurred in some of the smaller commodities, as exports of seeds rose 28 percent, dairy and products 18 percent, and tobacco 16 percent from 1996. Nine of the top 10 leading agricultural export States were the same in 1997 as in 1996--California, Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska, Texas, Kansas, Minnesota, Washington, and Indiana. However, Nebraska moved ahead of Texas in 1997. And Arkansas moved up from 11th place in 1996 into 8th place in 1997, as a poor wheat crop pulled down exports of several States, including last year's 10th exporter, North Dakota. As in the last 2 years, the top 10 leading States accounted for 58 percent of total U.S. agricultural export value. But as the total value of agricultural exports declined, only 19 States exported more than $1 billion worth of agricultural products in 1997, compared with the 21 States with over $1 billion in 1996. And exports from most of the major exporting States, with the exception of California and Arkansas, decreased in 1997. The fiscal 1997 value of California's estimated agricultural exports reached $7.7 billion, a 7-percent gain over 1996's $7.2 billion. California's growth occurred in fruits and vegetables, two commodities for which it is the leading export State. Vegetable exports increased to an estimated $2 billion, up 14 percent from 1996, while fruit exports rose 9 percent to $1.8 billion. Fruits and vegetables accounted for nearly half of California's 1997 exports and half of all U.S. exports of fruits and vegetables. California also led in exports of seeds and tree nuts, accounting for 93 percent of all U.S. tree nut exports. Iowa again ranked second among States in agricultural exports in 1997 with exports of $4.1 billion. It also was the leading exporter of soybeans and products and feed grains and products. Its soybean exports rose to $1.6 billion, 9 percent above 1996. But its exports of feed grains slipped 25 percent to only $1.5 billion in fiscal 1997 as corn prices declined. Feed grains and soybeans account for 75 percent of all exports from Iowa. Estimated 1997 exports from Illinois ranked third in the United States again, at $3.7 billion. As in Iowa, soybeans and feed grains account for three-fourths of all Illinois' exports and Illinois ranks just behind Iowa in exporting these products. Each of these States accounts for about a 17-percent share of total U.S. soybean exports, while Iowa has an 18-percent share of U.S. feed grain exports and Illinois a 15-percent share. In fiscal 1997, Nebraska moved up to fourth position among exporting States, shipping $3.3 billion worth of agricultural goods. Nebraska was the leading exporter of live animals and meat, $737 million; feeds & fodders, $249.2 million; hides and skins, $304.1 million; and animal fats, $95.8 million. These products from Nebraska accounted for 15, 14, 18, and 18-percent shares, respectively, of total U.S. exports of these products. Texas' share of U.S. exports dropped to $3.1 billion in 1997 and ranked fifth behind Nebraska. Texas was the leading 1997 exporter of cotton and cottonseed. Its exports of cotton equalled $564.2 million and of cottonseed were $27.6 million. And, this was despite a decline of about 15 percent in its cotton exports in 1997 as overall U.S. cotton exports fell due to foreign competition and higher domestic consumption. Exports from Kansas, the sixth-ranked exporting State, declined by 15 percent in 1997 to $2.7 billion. Despite a sharp drop in wheat exports, Kansas still was the leading exporter of wheat, at $498.2 million. Kansas' wheat exports accounted for an 11-percent share of total U.S. wheat exports, about the same as in 1996, despite significantly smaller shares for the other large producing States. Minnesota's exports of $2.6 billion placed it seventh in rank in 1997. Although Minnesota exports a number of the products listed, it was not a top-ranked exporter of any commodity group in 1997. At $1.9 billion, Arkansas moved up to 8th ranked exporter in 1997, as its exports of poultry and products rose 8 percent to $413 million. In addition to poultry and products, Arkansas also is the largest U.S. exporter of rice, even though its 1997 rice exports dipped 4 percent from 1996 to $411 million. The States of Washington and Indiana rounded out the top 10, with total agricultural exports of just under $1.9 billion each in 1997; but they did not lead the United States in exporting any commodity. Of States not among the top 10, North Carolina led in unmanufactured tobacco exports, Wisconsin led in dairy products, Georgia in peanuts and products, and North Dakota in sunflowerseed and oil. Methodology The Economic Research Service (ERS) estimates export shares based primarily on a State's production share of exported commodities. The estimated export value for each State should not be interpreted as actual measurements of a State's exports. ERS uses the Bureau of Census merchandise export data which are reported on a free along ship (f.a.s.) basis. The Census export data are reported by customs district and country of destination, but no State of origin is reported in the data set. An agricultural commodity is likely to pass through several States before being exported, and the State of origin is lost as commodities move from farmgate to port. The export estimates are based on the National Agricultural Statistics Service's (NASS) crop and livestock production and slaughter estimates. In some cases, supplemental data such as the Census of Agriculture, 1992, and the Department of Commerce's estimates for Exports from Manufacturing Establishments: 1990 and 1991 were used to estimate export shares. The data for previous years was revised to reflect production data revisions. (Carolyn L. Whitton, 202-694-5287) The detailed commodity breakdown by State is available on ERS's Autofax System at 202-694-5700. Request document number 16010. END_OF_FILE