U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE UPDATE June 21, 1999 June 1999, ERS-FAU-30 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE UPDATE is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Subscriptions to the printed version of this report are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock # SUB-FAT-4030, $52/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Summary-U.S. agricultural exports are down by $4.7 billion, or 14 percent, so far in fiscal 1999 from 1998. April exports declined $232 million from March. Exports have been trending downward over the fiscal year, while imports have trended upward. Cumulative agricultural imports are about the same as last year's, although imports in April are 2 percent lower than in March. The U.S. agricultural trade balance narrowed again in April and is now $7.9 billion in the fiscal year to date, down 37 percent from 1998. Exports-Exports of bulk commodities are down 19 percent year-to-year to $11.4 billion. Cotton and soybeans have suffered the largest declines, soybeans dropped by $1.7 billion and cotton by $804 million so far in 1999. Sales of wheat also are off year-to-year, even though they rose substantially in April. In contrast, the only notable gain among bulk commodities thus far in the fiscal year is corn (+$268 million). Due to lower prices, cumulative wheat export value is down despite higher volume shipments in fiscal 1999. Wheat sales dropped by over $207 million to Asia and $109 million to the Middle East. Sales to North Africa and South Asia also are lower. However, sales to South America and Southeast Asia are up. But, wheat exports gained $64 million in April over March, up 28 percent, largely due to progress in shipping aid to Russia. Higher corn sales so far in fiscal 1999 are due to greater demand from Latin America, especially Mexico (+$62 million) and South Korea (+$151 million), although shipments are down to Japan, Canada, and Taiwan. Corn volume shipments are up by a third over last fiscal year. Purchases of corn are higher, in part, because prices are lower and because some countries, notably South Korea, have begun to recover from last year's economic distress. The steep fall in exports of soybeans results largely from strong South American competition and record global oilseed production. Both prices and demand have plummeted. The three largest markets for oilseeds-Latin America, Europe, and Asia-all have purchased less from the United States so far in fiscal 1999 than in the previous year. For soybeans, the value of exports is down 33 percent in the fiscal year and volume is down 16 percent. Cotton exports, so far, have decreased by more than $800 million in fiscal 1999, as sales to Brazil, Turkey, Indonesia, China, South Korea, and Japan have dried up. Prices also are lower. Exports of high-value products (HVP) also are lower in fiscal 1999. As a group, HVP exports are down 10 percent, about half the overall decline of bulk commodity exports. To date, exports of HVP have reached $18.7 billion. Prominent among these declines are red meat & poultry sales to Russia and Japan, hides and skins sales to Mexico and South Korea, and nut sales to Asia and Europe. Imports-While agricultural imports in fiscal 1999 are about equal to last year's value, imports of noncompetitive products are 14 percent lower. Reduced import value of coffee and rubber are mainly due to their much lower prices. Most of this decline is offset by larger purchases of competitive imports such as meats (+10 percent), dairy products (+23 percent), fruits and products (+24 percent), and beverages (+13 percent). [Andy Jerardo, 202-694-5323] California's Share of Fiscal 1998 U.S. Exports is More Than Twice That of the Next Largest State--At $7.7 billion, California accounted for 14 percent of total U.S. fiscal 1998 exports and was the leading exporting State. Iowa, the second largest exporting State, shipped an estimated $3.5 billion in 1998. The top 10 exporting States remained the same as in fiscal 1997, but as a group accounted for only 55 percent of total U.S. exports in 1998, down 2 percent from 1997. California's exports increased, as did those of Texas and Kansas. Texas and Washington moved up one place in rank in 1998. These export gains and rank increases reflected larger exports of vegetables and wheat than in the previous season. But, as global demand and prices of corn declined, export value from the other seven top exporting States fell. (See special article.) Next Update: July 23, 1999 END_OF_FILE