U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE UPDATE                        November 22, 1999
November 1999, ERS-FAU-35
            Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
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U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE UPDATE is published monthly by the Economic 
Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 
20036-5831.
 
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Summary-Fiscal 1999 U.S. agricultural exports of $49.1 billion
were $4.6 billion less than in 1998, a 9-percent decline.
Imports, however, rose slightly to $37.4 billion. Exports in
September 1999 exceeded last year's value for a second month in a
row, while September imports fell to the lowest monthly value in
the fiscal year. Despite increasing monthly trade surpluses since
June 1999, the export surplus of $11.7 billion was still $5.1
billion lower than in 1998. 
 
Exports--Bulk commodity export value fell 11 percent in 1999,
despite the 23-percent rise in volume shipments. The bulk value
of $17.7 billion was $2.3 billion below 1998's value, primarily
due to the lowest prices since 1987. The dollar's high exchange
value over the past 3 years made U.S. exports more expensive in
terms of foreign currency. In value, only corn exports exceeded
last year.

Corn export value exceeded $5 billion, up 18 percent from 1998,
while corn volume rose 38 percent. But in spite of this year's
gains in sales, corn exports remained 40 percent below 1996's
$8.4 billion. The lowest corn prices since 1987 and 44 percent
below 1996 prices were responsible. Volume rose mainly to Latin
America, particularly Mexico, and also to Asia and Africa. In
Asia, South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan were the prime markets. In
Africa, Egypt imported the most. 

Wheat exports of $3.6 billion were 3 percent below the 1998
value, while volume shipments rose 12 percent. This is the third
consecutive year that wheat export value has fallen; it is now
almost half of 1996's $6.9 billion. The rise in volume shipments
for fiscal 1999 was largest in South America, Southeast Asia,
Russia, and Africa. The biggest markets were Colombia, South
Korea, Indonesia, Egypt, and Nigeria. Food aid benefited Russia
and Indonesia. Wheat prices (gulf port) in 1999 were the lowest
since 1986 and almost half of 1996 prices.

Soybean exports posted the largest actual decline in value among
the bulk commodities. Exports fell to $4.7 billion in 1999 from
$6.1 billion in 1998, and were more than 30 percent below 1997's
value. Export volume was also down 2 percent as shipments to
South America, Eastern Europe, and Africa fell from last year.
Soybean prices in 1999 were the lowest in the past two decades.
The strong dollar undermined U.S. price competitiveness in world
markets.

The 48 percent decline in cotton export value in fiscal 1999 was
almost matched by the percentage decline in volume shipments.
Exports were less than half of 1997's value. The decline was
sharpest in the Middle East and in East Asia, particularly Turkey
and China. Cotton prices were the lowest since 1992. Increased
cotton exports to world markets from Australia and China
displaced some U.S. exports.

High-value products registered another monthly gain in export
value in September, yet were down 7 percent for the fiscal year.
Of the $31.4 billion in exports, only vegetables posted a gain
over 1998. The sharpest percentage declines in fiscal 1999 were
in poultry, hides and skins, and vegetable oils. Markets that
shrank the most were countries that suffered recent financial
crises-prominently, Russia and South Korea.

Imports-Imports fell by more than $100 million in September from
August, but the value was up by more than $400 million, or 1.2
percent from 1998. While imports of non-competitive
products-coffee, cocoa, rubber-were down sharply, imports of red
meat, dairy products, fruits and juices, vegetables, beverages,
and wine were up. Imports of fruits and beverages together were
up by more than $1.1 billion in the fiscal year. [Andy Jerardo,
202-694-5323]

Some change occurred in fiscal 1999's major U.S. export
destinations and import origins. The top seven destinations for
U.S. agricultural exports in fiscal 1999 remained unchanged from
last year. The United Kingdom (UK) and Germany moved, while China
slipped to 10th (table 5). If the European Union (EU) is
considered a single country, exports to it rank third in 1999,
dropping the Netherlands, the U.K., and Germany out of the top 10
and raising China, Egypt, and the Philippines to 8th, 9th, and
10th rank. 

Canada and Mexico remained the top two sources of U.S. imports in
1999. France and Brazil moved up, while Italy, the Netherlands,
and Indonesia slipped. Again, as a single country the EU jumps to
second, raising New Zealand, Chile, and Costa Rica to the top 10.

Next Update: December 20, 1999

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